DNHQ Draft Tourney Semifinal Group 2: Pelle Larsson, Jamison Battle, N'Faly Dante; plus open thread
All three have had GSW workouts, so they may actually get drafted
Our Draft Tournament
Yes, we are having our FIFTH annual DNHQ Draft Tournament, where Dub Nation gets to vote on whom the Warriors should draft via head to head showdowns.
If the Warriors end up trading the pick, I’ll end the draft tournament early. If the Warriors somehow trade up, I’ll somehow re-fashion the Tourney.
Overall results and how we chose the field at 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament. Past Draft Tourneys archived here.
Don’t be a party pooper and say the Warriors should trade the pick or that it doesn’t matter.
void’s Big Board Vote Site
Super commenter void has made (again) a web app where you can record your Big Board for our limited pool of “Might Fall To #52” Tourney participants.
I particularly like this site, because you can put your money where your mouth is. So when you start bragging about how all your draft picks were better than the dumb Warriors pick, people can check. For instance, you can look at all my draft picks from since 2021, from brilliant to horribly misguided.
void’s DNHQ Big Board Vote Site
DNHQ Draft Tournament Second Round
Now it’s time for the winners of the first group stage to have a showdown. Every one of these players has had a pre-draft workout for the Warriors, so they are legitimate possibilities for the Warriors the draft or invite for a two-way or at least to join their Summer League team.
Group E
Oso Ighodaro 1%
Branden Carlson 30%
Keshad Johnson 13%
Pelle Larsson 56% WINNER
Woof, this was a group of death. I wouldn’t be too sad if any of these four were drafted.
Ighodaro looks like a budding Draymond Green on offense, but his defense — while positive at +3.0 DBPM — is not Draymond level (+5.0 DBPM in his draft year). If GSW didn’t have Draymond, Oso would be even more intriguing. But Ighodaro’s lack of jumper makes Draymond look like Sabrina Ionescu in comparison: Oso shot 0-2 from three in four years and 109 games. Given GSW’s spacing issues and the related stunting of Kuminga’s offense, I can’t see it.
Keshad Johnson could be an absolute steal if his jumper is real. It’s just hard to trust 93 shots, with 64% FT — a better indicator of future 3P% than college 3P%.
On Johnson, Sam Vecenie just wrote: Johnson is the kind of player the Warriors have loved in recent years: He excels without the ball in his hands. A transfer to Arizona from San Diego State this year, Johnson’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s a good defender across the positional spectrum and a strong wing rebounder. He’s on the short list of “best overall athletes” in the class, a powerful, explosive wing who is still working on his skill development. I’d venture the Warriors would want someone who can move the ball better and who is a more consistent shooter, but if they trust their developmental staff to help him continue to iron out his jumper (he’s a low-volume 39 percent 3-point shooter who hadn’t shown much in that respect prior to this season), you can make a case for him at No. 52.
Larsson is an easy prospect to like. He looks like he could step on the court and play Moses Moody / Brandin Podziemsk’s role as decent shooting big guard glue guy. (Note: he is a year older than Moody.) Pelle Larsson looks a little like a Klay Thompson replacement if you squint. A sharpshooter who can hit from NBA range, he hustles on defense (+2.5 DBPM) and looks athletic enough to defend big guards. Everyone says he’s a knockdown shooter, but his shooting volume wasn’t actually that high (108 3PA, and 87 and 92 the previous two years… in contrast Carlson shot 169 3PA just last year). So, I’d be happy to draft him, but…
The dream of Branden Carlson is that he’s a shot-blocking 7-0 big guy who’s a stretch 5 with some athleticism. His shot blocking is respectable (finished between 2nd and 4th each of his five years), but his swing skill — the one that will decide whether he’s a super valuable Brook Lopez or on the fringe of the league — is obviously his three-point shot. How real is it? Giving him the same treatment as Keshad above, his career FT% is 72.8%. Seems a little low, but who can really tell? Compared to similar stretch 5 prospect Quinten Post, he seems to be willing to attempt more closely defended threes from farther away. At Utah, Carlson had a different role, pick-and-popping, cutting to the arc as a release option, and posting up, and usually meant to score on the play. So he didn’t show off as much of a playmaking game. All in all, the Stretch Five is rarer and more valuable to GSW than another competent shooting big guard, so my vote goes to Carlson.
Group F
PJ Hall 27%
David Jones 4%
Jamison Battle 68% WINNER
Blake Hinson 1%
Hall won the poll vote but the comment votes broke heavily in numbers, if not enthusiasm, for Battle. Dub Nation was not generally excited about this group of prospects.
PJ Hall is a big who shoots threes. (Notice I didn’t say he shoots threes WELL… his shot looks okay, but the production wasn’t there in college.) He reportedly impressed GSW in the workout. But he’s 6-8.25 in socks and he was listed as 7-0, which is borderline fraudulent. This greatly decreases my interest in him, if he can’t be a proper stretch 5.
David Jones is apparently a super talented player held back by issues of temperament and discipline. The poster child for taking a risk like this is GG Jackson in 2023. But more often you get James Bouknight… (And to be honest, before MEM takes too many victory laps on that, let’s see how GG Jackson does when he faces a little adversity on a team actually trying to win.) But, if GSW thinks they can help Jones mature and if all my other favorites are off the board… then maybe it’s okay to take an old fashioned high risk high reward flyer.
Jamison Battle can shoot the hell out of the ball. He just doesn’t do much more in terms of defense and playmaking. This kind of player is a little scary because if someone like Duncan Robinson or Ryan Anderson is hitting 3s, then he can play but if their shooting falls off a little bit, then they are unplayable. I was willing to take a flyer on Jordan Hawkins last year in the same mold, but he was younger and had the glamour of the NCAA Championship. Battle gets my vote, reluctantly.
Blake Hinson did score in college, but doesn’t pass much or defend much. It feels like there are probably numerous similar prospects in the G-League.
Group G
Jaylen Wells 32%
Quinten Post 33%
Zyon Pullin 1%
N'Faly Dante 35% WINNER
Well, that was close. Many people expressed that Group G was much stronger than Group F.
After Coleman Hawkins returned to college, Quinten Post became the most accomplished Stretch 5 likely to fall to the bottom of the second round. The offense at Boston College often ran through Post at the high or low post with numerous off-ball cutters, so I think Post would fit in quickly in the Kerrball system. He also is a legit 7-0 in socks who was #2 in blocks in the ACC so there is rim protection there. Did I mention he shot a stunning 43.1% and 42.6% 3P in his last two years? That’s over 170 3PA. His career FT% is 80.1%, so that shooting looks real. Post gets my vote.
Some of you may think that I am obsessed with getting a Stretch 5. I suppose I am. It’s a nice dream that would solve so many problems with playing Draymond Green on offense and defense.
If you believe in BPM, then you should believe in Dante. BPM is absolutely INFATUATED with Dante, ranking him the 4th most productive player in the country. DBPM thinks Dante is the #15 defender in the country. Being a block AND steal leader is unusual. On offense, well… the guy can dunk and catch lobs. Hey, if he had a big offensive package, he’d be going in the first round. You know how people always want GSW to get a rim protector? Dante is your man.
Pullin reminds me of Davion Mitchell. Weak from 3, will not dunk, but is a dogged defender and very solid offense organizer. Ultimately, GSW needs spacing, either vertical dunk threat or 3 point shooting, and Pullin is neither.
Jaylen Wells has a creative sparkle which GSW needs. His shot diet is too jumper heavy, but it feels like that could improve with coaching. Ultimately, if that player we saw this year is for real, he could be pretty useful. But he needs to contribute more on defense and team offense, and there’s this nagging feeling that it could have been one hot-shooting half-season.
Pelle Larsson
Guard, 6-5, 208lb
BPM #128
PRPG #171
Givony Woo ESPN 5-31 #45
O'Conner 6-17 #47
SI 5-16 #42
Vecenie 6-5 #41
Wasserman 6-13 #43
Yahoo 6-17 #52
Why does BPM love him?
Very high Offensive Rating, and very efficient shooting (EFG, TS%) on average Usage, plus above average Assist Rate.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a four-year player.
42.6% 3P shooting but on only 108 shots. Is it a fluke or real improvement over the previous two years of 35% 3P?
Career 81.2% FT and 39.6% 3P DOES inspire hope.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Wendell Moore Jr. 2022
Solomon Hill 2012
Jerian Grant 2015
Cody Martin 2019
Dalen Terry 2022
Desmond Bane 2018
O’Connor, The Ringer
Versatile offensive role player who goes hard on defense and has the upside to be even more.
SHADES OF
Desmond Bane, Grayson Allen
Hustle
Pull-up Threat
Catch-and-shoot Threat
On-Ball Defense
PLUSES
Knockdown shooter off the catch, especially when he’s left open, so he could feast playing alongside star-level talent. He’s one of the best in the draft at using pump fakes to attack closeouts and then scoring on aggressive downhill attacks and pull-up jumpers. He’s a capable passer in those situations, too.
Good athlete who plays with excellent hustle, particularly when running the break and making himself available as a lob target. His effort and feel translate to regular cuts to the rim.
Reliable secondary shot creator in pick-and-rolls who sprays the ball to shooters and cutters around the floor. He will even use some manipulation with eye and head fakes to create openings for teammates.
Stout defender who consistently fights through screens, plays with strong fundamentals, and stays attentive off the ball.
MINUSES
Needs to develop a faster shooting release. Until this season, he had issues hitting heavily contested shots. Though he gets shots off faster than he did before, he still needs to improve to survive against NBA athletes.
NBA.com / Rotowire
Overview
Larsson played four years at the college level, spending his freshman year with Utah and the subsequent three campaigns with Arizona. Larsson started in 18 of his 25 appearances as a freshman for the Utes, averaging 8.2 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists per contest. He moved to Arizona as a sophomore, but his tenure with the Wildcats didn’t begin well, as Larsson started in just two of his 37 appearances while logging a career-low 20.7 minutes per game. Larsson started 18 times in his junior year and experienced a statistical uptick across the board, but he would break out for good in his senior year. Larsson started in each of his 36 appearances with the Wildcats in 2023-24, averaging 12.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game while shooting an impressive 51.9% from the field and an elite 42.6% from beyond the arc. Larsson was named to the 2023-24 All-Pac 12 Second Team, a year in which he also finished sixth in assists per game.
Analysis
A 6-foot-5 guard with a strong frame, Larsson already looks the part of an NBA player who should be capable of holding his own on the defensive end. However, his biggest asset lies on offense, as he’s emerged as a reliable shooter, both in catch-and-shoot and off-ball situations. Due to his athleticism and strong frame, he’s a threat when finishing at the rim, but there’s a strong chance his offensive game at the next level will rely primarily on his shooting ability. Larsson can also thrive in pick-and-roll situations, particularly as the ball-handler due to his excellent vision. Larsson can potentially fulfill the role of a secondary ball-handler at the NBA level, though he’d thrive even more as a catch-and-shoot alternative with enough athleticism to attack the rim if given enough space. Defensively, he should be ready to make an impact at the next level since he’s a shooting guard with the build of a small forward, though he doesn’t profile to be a difference-making presence on that end of the floor.
Projection
Larsson’s mold can be found often in the NBA right now. He’s a versatile guard who can defend multiple positions while emerging as a reliable catch-and-shoot threat, with the possibility of an even more significant role on offense if his game keeps developing. That should warrant a long career in The Association, as teams all over the league have the need for a competent wing who can make his presence felt on both ends of the court.
Erwin Demir 1
26. Pelle Larsson (SR.) — Arizona
Despite much depth among connective pieces in this class, there are very few with Larsson’s versatility on both ends. While the numbers support his NBA-ready shooting as the base for the rest of his profile, Larsson going pro comes at the right moment. With teams experimenting more with inverted pick-and-rolls and positionless basketball, Larsson is a valuable piece to creative teams who want to run personalized schemes.
Coming from a basketball family, Larsson has a fantastic basketball IQ that is proven in how well he rotates on defense combined with his leadership. At a senior-studded Arizona team, Larsson was one of the defacto leaders which will translate well at the NBA level. With teams valuing toughness and playing hard, Larsson is ready to fit into the rotation of almost every winning team in the league.
The Knicks are a favorite fit for Larsson. I dedicated a whole in-depth piece on his NBA role below, going into more detail on the above-mentioned areas.
Ersin Demir 2
Playing for the Swedish national team on top of his 133 games in college basketball, Larsson is one of the more experienced players in this class. At 23 years old, he had two years of professional basketball before transferring to Utah in 2020.
After a solid freshman year at 8.2 points and 46.3% shooting from three, Larsson transferred to Arizona. With Coach Tommy Lloyd knowing what he’d get, Larsson improved and earned a starting role in the second half of his junior year, whereafter he kept doing what he does best: improve his teammates.
At 6’5.25” without shoes, Larsson has the size to play the one, two, and three at the next level. His efficient but low-usage role made him one of the more unique players in college. With NBA teams competing for a title and looking to add such guys around their stars, his experience and NBA-ready game make him one of the safest bets in this class. This report is solely focusing on his NBA role.
Physical Profile
Combined with his size, Larsson has a good upper-body strength. At 212 pounds, he got much stronger during his three years at Arizona. Coach Lloyd valued strength and conditioning in Larsson’s development due to the multipositional character of his game. His quickness and footwork stand out on the offensive end when looking at his tools.
As a defender, Larsson is a good athlete who uses his upper-body strength well when contesting at the rim. With a decent vertical pop, the plus value comes from his strong upper-leg area, helping him to power up to contest shots. This combined with the quickness of his feet is a combination NBA teams won’t find often. Therefore, valuing his physical tools is one of the first conclusions drawn by front offices when evaluating his profile.
He’s a decent screen navigator but needs to improve on that end. His positioning and defensive awareness make up for most mistakes he makes when fighting through screens, making improvement feasible when entering the NBA.
Offense
At 42.6%, Larsson is one of the most efficient shooters among high majors this season. Another positive is that his attempts per game also increased— from 2.5 in both his sophomore and junior seasons to 3.0 in his senior year. What makes the shooting numbers more feasible is that Larsson is 45.2% on NBA-ranged threes, as shown by the chart below.
When looking at the mechanics, he shows a consistent jumper. With a 6’7.5” wingspan, Larsson makes up for the lack of length with a high-arcing release. He’s quick to set his feet and doesn’t need much time to power up for the shot. …
Another area that will translate well to the NBA level is Larsson using jab steps and fakes to leverage the threat of his rim pressure to create space, with the third play below being an example.
For his NBA role, Larsson’s plays out of closeouts will be the most crucial. He has a rare combination of quick feet and great decision-making in how he’ll exploit the defender closing out on him. This form of offensive creativity will give an NBA franchise some untapped potential to exploit in upcoming years when Larsson earns more on-ball reps.
… more detail in the original report …
Taking into account that Larsson will continue to play as a connector piece in the NBA, his plays out of cuts are another indicator of his success at the next level. He’s an active cutter who stays in motion at all times, disrupting defenses. Another area where Larsson adds value to Arizona’s game is to make connective passes out of these cuts to find open teammates.
This is one of the reasons why he’s averaging 3.7 assists per game despite playing under 20% usage and not having a ball-heavy type of play.
Defense
In Larsson’s defensive role, switching on the perimeter and guarding closeouts is one of the more crucial parts of his role. Throughout his three years at Arizona, his ability to slide his feet is what made him an effective defender on the perimeter.
Larsson has great footwork and together with his quick feet, he can stay attached to his assignment. While closing out, he shows a decent burst, but more importantly a good deceleration by using an aggressive pivot foot to control his opponent’s drive.
… more detail in the original report …
NBA Draft Projection
Larsson will be 23 years old on draft night. For teams looking to compete for a championship, he fits the bill of the multi-positional ball handler who plays in a downscaled role. Most teams want to complement their high-usage stars with a do-it-all wing or guard who plays as the connecting part that improves the other four players on the court.
That’s Larsson’s role at Arizona. And when considering his NBA-ready game combined with his excellent footwork and quick feet, there will likely be a few top NBA teams wanting to draft him with their pick in the latter stages of the first round.
To conclude the scouting report, I project Pelle Larsson to be a late first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, with teams the New York Knicks (picks 24 and 25) and Boston Celtics (pick 30) being the two best teams for him in terms of fit.
Jamison Battle
Forward, 6-7, 225lb
BPM #174
PRPG #102
Why does BPM love him?
Shooting shooting shooting
#9 in the country in 3P% with 43.3% on a whopping 210 3PA.
6th in the NCAA with 92.6% FT.
This resulted in a very high Offensive Rating, great EFG and TS%
Not a lot of fouls or turnovers.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a fifth year senior.
His defense is eh at the college level; how will it be in the NBA?
Low block, steal, assist rate.
Final year was his first elite shooting season. His career 83.3% FT says the improvement might be for real.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Julian Strawther 2023
Allen Crabbe 2012
Damyean Dotson 2017
Alan Lu, NBA Scouting Live
Height: 6-7
Weight: 220
College: Ohio State
Classification: Fifth-Year Senior
Birthdate: 5/10/2001
Projected Draft Range: 2nd Round to Undrafted
Pros:
Solid shooter, especially from deep
Adequate scorer off the dribble
Moves fairly well off the ball on offense
Adequate rebounder for his size
Solid motor
Cons:
Lacks an elite first step off the dribble
Needs to improve his passing ability
May struggle to guard quicker players
Only an average athlete
Old for a draft prospect, may have limited upside
Summary:
Jamison Battle is a skilled swingman that can shoot and score the basketball. He played at George Washington and Minnesota prior to transferring to play at Ohio State, and he also had a solid showing at the 2024 Portsmouth Invitational Tournament. He’ll need to show NBA teams that he can guard upper-echelon opponents, but his jump shot could allow him to make it to the NBA someday.
N'Faly Dante
Center, 6-11, 230lb
BPM #4 (holy cow)
PRPG #23
Yahoo 6-4 #41
TheAthletic 4-19 #69
Wasserman 4-23 #57
Why does BPM love him?
And let me point out that BPM is absolutely INFATUATED with Dante, ranking him the 4th most productive player in the country. For context, #1 is Zach Edey, #2 is Donovan Clingan and #3 is Johni Broome (who returned to school and will be next year’s Trayce Jackson-Davis).
He’s a blocking (5.7% of shots, #83 in the country) machine.
He’s a stealing (3.2% of opp possessions, #136) machine.
He’s a rebounding machine (#199 OREB rate, #61 DREB rate)
Above average at not fouling and at drawing free throws.
His true shooting is very efficient (68.6%, #18).
So basically he does everything that BPM thinks correlates to winning.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a fifth year senior.
Considered raw offensively.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Derrick Favors 2010
Willie Cauley-Stein 2013
Robert Williams 2018 (Time Lord!)
Brandon Clarke 2016
Nerlens Noel 2013
In Dante’s defense, WCS was a really good college player.
Wasserman, NBA.com
Previous mock draft spot: No. 57
Team: Oregon
Position: C
Size: 6-foot-11, 265 lbs
Age/Year: 22, Senior
Nationality: Malian
Pro comparison: Daniel Gafford
Through five postseason games between the NCAAs and Pac-12 tournament, N’Faly Dante averaged 22.4 points on 74.6% shooting. Even though he hasn’t expanded his range or added any ball-handling skill, he’s improved offensively in the paint with his footwork, poise and off-hand. A career 2.8 steal percentage is also extremely rare for a center. Dante has become a name worth watching heading into the predraft process, and more impact two-way play at the combine could further strengthen his chances of being drafted.
NBADraftRoom.com
Dante has elite physical tools pushing 7 feet tall, with a massive wingspan and good coordination and strength, he has a chance to become a special defensive talent. He goes after every shot around the rim and is an intimidating force who causes opponents to think twice before entering the lane.
Although Dante isn’t a polished offensive player he does have good hands and shows good timing on the offensive glass. He takes the ball hard to the rim and uses his impressive reach to get way above the rim with his dunks.
Shows some touch from mid range with a decent looking stroke, although he’s got a long ways to go on the offensive end.
His post game consists mostly of strong moves to the rim, including a power dribble and drop step move. He also has a nice right hand flip hook that he shoots with great height, making it nearly impossible to block.
Has good mobility and changes ends well. Can make plays in transition, showing off his coordination and great length.
Still learning the game, figuring out where to be on the court and which rotations to make on D.
Is very raw on the offensive end, lacking consistency with his outside shot and isn’t a good free throw shooter.
Comparisons
[trigger warning - EA]
Ekpe Udoh+
Hollinger on NBA Combine
Tentacles Award: N’Faly Dante, Oregon
Dante was just OK on the court, but he was the winner of the wingspan measurements that preceded five-on-five play.
Dante has what scouts call a “plus-8 wingspan,” measuring 6-10 without shoes with a 7-6 fingertip-to-fingertip length, the biggest differential of any player at the combine. Since wingspan does correlate with pro success (albeit not as well as some other factors, like, for instance, being good at basketball), this is always a measurement front offices keep an eye on.
Maxwell Baumbach, No Ceilings
Look, I get it. N’Faly Dante is old for a draft prospect, and he’s had some injuries. But the dude is clearly good in a way that scales up to the NBA level. He’s 6’11” with the length, strength, and toughness to bang it out against pros. He’s an effective finisher who never gets fancy with it. He knows who he is and he doesn’t make mistakes. On defense, he moves his feet exceptionally well. When guarding in space, Dante displays the agility you’d expect from a soccer player rather than a man with his size. Still, he has the power and bounce to turn people away at the cup. N’Faly Dante isn’t going to drastically swing the fortunes of an NBA team. But when it comes to lower usage bench spots, competitive teams should be seeking guys who know who they are, who know how to play, and most importantly, actually can play at a high level. That’s N’Faly Dante.
Vote
You can vote here. You can also post a comment vote which counts as 10 votes. (Or both.) However, to officially count, the comment must be include exactly one hashtag out of #Larsson, #Battle, #Dante.
Funny variations cause extra work for me.
(To steal a phrase) Hello everybody!
Been pretty much completely offline since:
a) My phone died, and
b) We spent the last week driving the Alaska Highway through British Columbia, Yukon and now into the 49th state.
Really long drive, but very much an exciting adventure and filled with incredible scenery and wildlife that’s very much undisturbed by modern standards. We’re now going to to spend the next three weeks exploring Alaska.
I’m trying to catch up on the articles and comments. I really enjoyed EA and Perks and am kinda lost on the draft stuff, so will trust the collective wisdom, even though I was high on Post.
I just finished watching Federer, The Last 12 Days. Wow, what an emotional send off to one of the greats. A great player. I was struck by the love that is shared within this family, his wife and kids. It was mentioned in the documentary that an athlete of this calibre experiences two deaths in their lifetime. If you like tennis and sports, in general, this is a great watch. You will get to see Roger and Rafa cry publicly and unabashedly. Lets hope Klay gets to see this.