DNHQ Draft Tourney Group E: Oso Ighodaro, Branden Carlson, Keshad Johnson, Pelle Larsson; plus open thread
DNHQ Draft Tourney Group E: Oso Ighodaro, Branden Carlson, Keshad Johnson, Pelle Larsson; plus open thread
all these players have had GSW workouts so they are serious candidates to be picked
Our Draft Tournament
Yes, we are having our FIFTH annual DNHQ Draft Tournament, where Dub Nation gets to vote on whom the Warriors should draft via head to head showdowns.
If the Warriors end up trading the pick, I’ll end the draft tournament early. If the Warriors somehow trade up, I’ll somehow re-fashion the Tourney.
Overall results and how we chose the field at 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament. Past Draft Tourneys archived here.
Don’t be a party pooper and say the Warriors should trade the pick or that it doesn’t matter.
void’s Big Board Vote Site
Super commenter void has made (again) a web app where you can record your Big Board for our limited pool of “Might Fall To #52” Tourney participants.
I particularly like this site, because you can put your money where your mouth is. So when you start bragging about how all your draft picks were better than the dumb Warriors pick, people can check. For instance, you can look at all my draft picks from since 2021, from brilliant to horribly misguided.
void’s DNHQ Big Board Vote Site
Oso Ighodaro
Forward, 6-9, 205lb
BPM #94
PRPG #70
SI 5-16 #36
The Ringer 5-9 #37
Givony Woo ESPN 5-31 #54
Vecenie 5/12 #41
Wasserman 5/31 #56
Why does BPM love him?
Efficient True Shooting, on average Usage.
Blocks a lot of shots and doesn’t turn the ball over.
Good offensive rebounder.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a four-year player.
A bit short for a center and has zero jumper.
Playmaking passer, but Assist Rate is average.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Evan Mobley 2021
Jarrett Allen 2017
Jerome Jordan 2010
Brice Johnson 2016
Yes, I triple checked, my program is convinced Ighodaro is like Mobley and Allen. I’m not completely sure why.
O’Connor, The Ringer
Gifted passer with the defensive versatility to stick in the league.
SHADES OF
Al Horford
Float Game
Feel for the Game
PLUSES
Well-rounded defender best suited in a switching scheme next to a rim-protecting center. He has the quickness to play out on the perimeter, and the size to help at the rim. He brings mobility, intelligence, and grit to a defense.
Playmaking hub for Marquette who could be a connective piece in the NBA with his feel in two-man actions. He loves to fire bounce passes from the elbows to cutters, and he often threads the needle with pinpoint passes. There’s a flair to his game, too. And he produces highlights while limiting turnovers.
Strong screener who rolls hard to the basket. He’s a lob threat. And if the option isn’t there, he’s comfortable passing out of the short roll, a skill that could be most valuable if paired with a shot-making guard.
Feathery-soft touch on hook shots out of the post, contested layups in the paint, and when using runners, the last of which could be of great value at the next level.
Major transition threat. If he’s not running the floor hard, he’s ripping down rebounds and bringing the ball up himself.
MINUSES
Undersized as the lone big on the floor, unless it’s a small-ball lineup. He doesn’t rack up rebounds or offer elite rim protection.
He’s a non-shooter at this point. He doesn’t take jumpers, and he’s a subpar free throw shooter. But considering his success from floater range, there could be some untapped potential as a spot-up shooter.
Hollinger on NBA Combine
As for Ighodaro, he got attention at the combine… While his wingspan and standing-reach measurements were disappointing for a center (6-11 wingspan, 8-8 1/2 standing reach), he uncorked a 35-inch no-step vertical that tied with Carter for the best at the combine. Additionally, Ighodaro showed an advanced perimeter game for a center in the on-court session, handing out seven assists in just 47 minutes while making all six of his field goal attempts and going 7-of-9 from the foul line.
Ighodaro also said he learned his floater game from “a guy named Sam” at the Pecos Community Center where he played growing up in Phoenix because, as a youngster, he was getting his shot blocked by bigger, older players.
Regardless, his advice to a young Ighodaro has helped make him a popular sleeper pick.
Wasserman, BP
#57
May 12 Mock Draft Spot: No. 53
Team: Marquette
Position: PF/C
Size: 6'10", 222 lbs
Age/Year: 21, Senior
Nationality: American
Pro Comparison: Brandon Clarke
On a positive note, Oso Ighodaro tied for the highest standing vertical at the combine (35") and was able to showcase the handle and passing that separates him from bigs. But he also measured just a 6'11" wingspan, easily the shortest among projected centers.
No shooting range and questionable tools for rim protection could raise some red flags. However, teams could see a place for his playmaking, signature touch shots and play-finishing from his position.
ESPN NBA Combine Report
Oso Ighodaro, F/C, Marquette: Ighodaro had a good showing in Wednesday's second scrimmage, scoring 11 points, on 4-for-4 shooting and hitting three free throws. He showcased his passing ability, effectiveness as a screener and defensive versatility, switching onto smaller players. However, he's a non-shooter outside the paint, a below-average rebounder and lacks elite rim protection skills. A creative team might see more of his upside and envision a way to optimize him off the bench. -- Woo
Branden Carlson
Center, 7-0, 215lb
BPM #72
PRPG #142
Why does BPM love him?
Efficient True Shooting, on above average Usage.
Blocks a lot of shots, doesn’t foul much, and doesn’t turn the ball over.
Good defensive rebounder.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a five-year player.
A bit thin for a center.
37.9% 3P shooting on 169 shots is appealing, but… career 72.8% FT and 35.4% 3P makes one wonder how real his shot is.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Adreian Payne 2014
Eric Paschall 2019
Deandre Ayton 2018
Anthony Bennett 2013
Evan Mobley 2021
Confusing comps like this make me question my programming and the whole concept of cosine similarity.
Maxwell Baumbach, No Ceilings
There are things Branden Carlson is not. He’s not young for a prospect, as he’ll be 25 years old before draft night. He’s not positionally strong as a 206-pound seven-footer. He’s not a defensive anchor given his good-but-not-great block rates and deficiencies as a rebounder.
But if you’re going to focus on what a guy isn’t, you’re going to forfeit all of your draft picks, because everyone has their flaws. At a certain point, you have to focus on what a guy can do. When it comes to Carlson, he might be the best 6’10”+ shooter in this class. He went 7-for-13 from deep in Portsmouth after hitting 37.9% of his triples at Utah this past season. An agile mover, Carlson can run into a transition three or cleanly set his feet after popping. His high release point clears even the most potent closeouts. While Carlson may not be a defensive anchor, he does get off the floor well, and his limber footwork enables him to play comfortably on the perimeter.
I get it. Carlson’s old. In certain matchups, his value will be limited by stronger fives and faster fours. He’ll need to find a situation where his strengths can be maximized. But winning on the margins is often about finding guys who are exceptionally good at something and finding a way to make it work. There aren’t many really tall dudes that stroke it like Carlson, and even fewer of them can run around like he does. That makes him worthy of a serious look in my book.
…
Alan Lu, NBA Scouting Live #1
Utah’s Branden Carlson will turn 25 before draft night. Still, I wouldn’t rule him out as a two-way candidate. He showcased his skill set wonderfully against UC-Irvine in the NIT, posting 21 points, 11 rebounds, and five blocks. At 7’0”, he’s a comfortable movement shooter (37.6% from three on 4.8 attempts per game). He also gets up easily as a lob target and knows how to position himself behind the back line of the defense in the dunker spot. He’s a bit thin for the center position, but his leaping ability, ball tracking, and rotational awareness make him a capable rim protector. Don’t sleep on Carlson.
…
Utah’s 7-0 senior center, Branden Carlson had a fairly solid showing in his team’s double-digit win over UCLA. Though he didn’t shoot the ball well from the outside, he excelled at making other plays when he was on the court. Carlson showed a good ability to score out of the post. He displayed a solid combination of strength, shooting touch, and finishing ability to consistently score around the basket. Carlson was able to throw down a dunk, score on a jump hook, and he also scored on a step-through move while getting fouled another time. He also was able to draw free throws on a tip-in. While he was able to make a quick corner three early on, he struggled to consistently make threes in this game. He also had a shot blocked off of a drive another time.
Also, Carlson passed the ball well. He was able to make an assortment of passes to set up scores for his teammates, as he can make passes off the dribble and find teammates on the move to get them the basketball. Plus, he did a terrific job of rebounding the basketball. He also played satisfactory defense. Carlson would rotate to block and contest shots in the paint to force misses. On the other hand, sometimes he would sag too far off his man and not actively contest mid-range jumpers, which would lead him to allow scores that time.
In general, Branden Carlson played well in his team’s win over UCLA. He is an agile, skilled big man that can make hustle plays on both ends of the floor. He will need to be a more consistent shooter from beyond the arc, but he has a variety of skills that could enable him to excel as a role player in the NBA, and he could be an intriguing option for NBA teams to consider in the second round of the 2024 draft.
Alan Lu, NBA Scouting Live #2
Utah’s 7-0 senior center, Branden Carlson had a fairly solid showing in his team’s loss to Indiana State. He showed a satisfactory ability to score out of the post. Carlson would back down his man in order to score on drop steps and jump hooks, and he also was able to score on smaller defenders. Sometimes though, he would miss on contested, turnaround jumpers. He also shot the three-ball well from downtown. Carlson showed a knack for moving off the ball to make open, spot-up threes.
He also showed off decent playmaking skills. Carlson did a good job of passing out of the post due to possessing the patience and court vision to do so, and he would make the extra pass to find the open man. On one play though, he threw a lazy pass that got intercepted. He didn’t grab many rebounds in this game, but Carlson was able to get his fair share of defensive boards.
Defensively, he looked to be fairly average in this game. In this game, he was able to rotate to poke a ball away in the post to help his team get a steal. He almost was able to get a hard shot block, but was called for a goaltend. On the downside, he would tend to be late on his rotations, and he also got beat off the dribble once to allow a score. Overall, Carlson played fairly well, as he showed off versatile scoring skills in this game. He’ll need to improve his rebounding and defense, but he is a second round prospect that could project to be a rotational big man similar to Oklahoma City Thunder’s center, Mike Muscala at the NBA level.
Keshad Johnson
Forward, 6-7, 210lb
BPM #88
PRPG #305
The Ringer 5-9 #49
Yahoo 4-9 #49
Givony Woo ESPN 5-31 #50
Wasserman 5/31 #37
Why does BPM love him?
Efficient True Shooting, on average Usage.
Good Defensive Rating and Blocks and Steals at an average rate
Good offensive rebounder.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a five-year player. Played a year at Arizona, and before that was at SDSU, which is a good team with a soft schedule.
38.7% 3P shooting but on only 93 shots. Is it a fluke or real improvement? Career 64% FT and 31.4% 3P doesn’t inspire hope.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Eric Paschall 2018
Kendall Brown 2022
Zhaire Smith 2018
Obi Toppin 2020
Obi Toppin 2019
O’Connor, The Ringer
Bulky forward who can fill in gaps on offense while providing upside as a defensive stopper.
SHADES OF
Jae Crowder
Interior Scoring
PLUSES
Versatile on-ball defender with a huge frame and long wingspan that he uses to battle scorers. He’s also laterally quick enough to contain smaller players.
Intelligent off-ball defender who’s an effective deterrent in help situations at the rim or when digging into drivers at the line.
Hard-nosed rebounder who crashes the boards from the perimeter and uses his strength to box out. He’s also capable of bringing the ball up the floor himself after rebounds and making passes off the dribble.
He’s a willing screener who can hit pick-and-pop 3s, but he’s most effective on rolls thanks to his explosiveness and huge catch radius. He looks like a big tight end catching passes over the defense.
Good spot-up shooter who is most comfortable from the corners, but sometimes struggles to get his shot off due to his slower, deliberate mechanics. He’s not a knockdown guy, but he’s improved significantly.
Connective passer who can throw accurate entries and off-the-dribble darts to bigs or spot-up shooters.
MINUSES
Can he actually shoot? He made only 24.6 percent of his 3s and 60.9 percent of his free throws over four years at San Diego State. Then he jumped to 38.7 percent from 3 and 71 percent from the line at Arizona. Perhaps this jump is for real, but it’s worth monitoring.
He can play big in spurts, but he can’t anchor a defense. So if he can’t shoot, that raises concerns about his positional fit. He’d need to be paired with a center who can shoot since he’s not enough of an interior shot blocker to be the lone big man on the floor.
Maxwell Baumbach, No Ceilings
Defensive Dominance
Keshad Johnson’s defense will be what he hangs his hat on at the next level. At the NBA combine, Johnson measured at 6’6.25” barefoot with a 6’10.25” wingspan and a hulking weight of 224.0 pounds. He also had one of the best 3/4 court spring times and he tied for the top max leap vertical. To put it simply, he’s big, he’s strong, and he can move, making him one of the most versatile defenders in the class.
Johnson is exceedingly difficult to deal with on an island. His defensive fundamentals, from his stance to his hand placement, are exactly what teams will want to see. He’s fluid with his hips. He does a phenomenal job of containing the ball and cutting off advantageous driving angles. More often than not, opponents end up in the mid-range on the baseline, unable to generate any penetration whatsoever, or taking tough mid-range twos. Bigger opponents aren’t able to plow through him, and smaller guys aren’t able to best his blend of power and agility. It’s really hard to hold a driving lane when Johnson is throwing his body on you. Per Synergy, opponents posted a dismal eFG% of 17.8% when driving against Johnson. Even better, his motor is always running hot. Even when quicker guards are able to shake him, his recovery is sublime. While Johnson’s vertical leap showed that he can jump high, it’s the on-court functionality of that pop that matters. He’s fast off the floor to contest shots in the mid-range, and he gets up effortlessly from his slide when a driver tries to lob one over him at the rim.
These tools are on display in his ball screen defense, too. Johnson displays a keen awareness of where the screen is coming from, oftentimes avoiding them entirely. But even when he does get clipped, his strength, consistent drive to make multiple efforts, and recovery tools keep him in the play. Johnson also does a nice job of staying connected to the ball-handler without getting too handsy, ensuring advantageous positioning while avoiding unnecessary foul trouble. It’s tough to put Johnson in a bad spot, regardless of who is on the ball. That’s going to work wonderfully in his favor at the next level. Whether a situation sees him switched onto a smaller guard, or whether he has to avoid a screen while covering an inverted pick-and-roll action, Johnson is going to be up to the task.
He brings the goods as a team defender as well. One thing that stood out on tape was how well Johnson denies the ball. His foot speed and ability to simply boss guys around physically enables him to play his man tight off-ball when necessary. When he digs from the perimeter, his powerful and well-timed swipes help him to rack up steals, or at the very least, jostle the ball loose. His ground coverage is outstanding, as he can fly all over the floor rotationally and swat perimeter shots that others might not even be able to meaningfully contest. He’s a transition hustler, too, always sprinting back to prevent easy buckets on the other end.
In totality, Johnson has just about everything you could ask for in a modern defender. His 2.0 STL% and 2.7 BLK% meet the playmaking thresholds that NBA teams generally look for in forwards. He’s strong, he moves well laterally, and he can jump. Still, there’s a technical refinement to how he operates both on and off the ball. He’s going to be a genuine multi-positional defender that other teams struggle mightily to exploit. Coaches are going to love his physicality, agility, proficiency, and tenacity.
There is little doubt in my mind that Keshad Johnson has the ability to defend at an NBA level. Whether you want to look at it through a lens of skill, athleticism, or size, Johnson is ready to go. The question then becomes whether or not he has enough juice offensively to carve out a long-lasting position in the league.
Finding an Offensive Role
The offensive concerns with Johnson center around his jump shot and his ball skills. It’s tricky with him, because I’ve found myself struggling to put my foot down one way or another with both of these topics. There’s been a lot of, “this is an eye-of-the-beholder draft” talk all year (rightfully so), and few topics exemplify that quite like Johnson’s offensive skill set.
... lots more at the original linked article …
Conclusion
I get the hang-ups with Keshad Johnson. He’s an older prospect. He’s under 6’7” barefoot and he only had one good shooting season, which came on low-to-moderate volume. There’s a chance other teams simply don’t respect him from deep and play way off him. His ball-handling skills and passing aren’t where you’d like them to be for a modern wing. But still, I find him preferable to many of his peers. From a pure physicality and athleticism standpoint, he’s as ready for the NBA as it gets. He’s entirely comfortable acting in a complementary offensive role without the ball in his hands. Defensively, he’s going to be a problem for just about everybody. Best of all, he improved dramatically in his first high-major season.
I have Keshad Johnson in the early-to-middle part of the second round. If nothing else, I see him as a stellar defender with excellent physical tools and a high motor who can eat innings if need be. The question is just if he has enough offensive juice to become more than that. Ideally, he can become an ultra-physical, 3-and-D forward who attacks the rim. But I also wouldn’t rule out quirkier paths where he still sticks as a dive man on a team that has great spacing around him. His work rate and athleticism are going to give him more outs than most prospects with shooting concerns. While I’m not entirely convinced that everything will come together perfectly for him, his upward trajectory makes it difficult to say that he won’t get to a place where he’s an everyday player. Generally, when we talk about older prospects, we’re talking about a, “you get what you get” predicament. But here, we’ve got someone who is still on the rise.
NBA.com / Rotowire
Overview
Johnson played five years at the college level, divided into a four-year stint at San Diego State and a one-and-done campaign at Arizona during the 2023-24 season. Johnson was merely a bench alternative in his first two years with the Aztecs, but he earned a regular starting role in his junior year, averaging 7.2 points per game in 2021-22 and upping that number to 7.7 as a senior in 2022-23. He joined Arizona as a graduate transfer and took his game to another level, averaging career highs in points (11.5), rebounds (5.9), assists (1.8), steals (1.0), blocks (0.7) and minutes (27.6) with the Wildcats while starting in each of his 36 Pac-12 appearances.
Analysis
Standing as a 6-foot-7, 225-pound forward, Johnson fits the mold of a player who should impact the defensive end due to his size alone. He accomplishes just that, as he’s aggressive — in the right way — while evidencing solid lateral quickness, above-average strength and enough length to deal with taller opponents. He’s an active off-ball defender, as he can switch defensively if needed and is also adept at defending pick-and-roll scenarios, something that’s not very common among college players. Additionally, he’s strong enough to hold his own in the post and is an impactful rebounder. Johnson gets tons of credit for his defensive game, but he is also a work in progress at the other end. He’s slowly developing a reliable outside shot, though his ceiling might end up being a catch-and-shoot threat from beyond the arc, with most of his offensive game coming in the midrange and the post. He can also be an effective screener and finisher in pick-and-roll situations due to his elevated understanding and awareness.
Projection
Johnson is a solid all-around player who doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses. He’s the type of player who could be a solid rotation player at the NBA level: he rebounds, defends, gets out in transition and makes good decisions with the ball. He’s not likely to be a star, but he could find a role in the league.
Wasserman, NBA.com and BP
No. 37: Keshad Johnson
It became easier to picture Johnson’s NBA fit after scrimmaging against second-round prospects. His athleticism popped on his 42-inch max vertical and several defensive plays, both at the rim and around the perimeter. He made some outside shots and smart reads as a passer. The shooting looked fairly convincing, as did his defensive movement and IQ.
May 12 Mock Draft Spot: Off the board
School/Team: Arizona
Position: SF/PF
Age/Year: 22, Senior
Size: 6'6", 224 lbs
Nationality: American
Pro comparison: Robert Covington
Keshad Johnson popped numerous times in Chicago during scrimmages with his shooting, defensive playmaking and foot speed around the perimeter. He also tied for the highest max vertical at 42 inches, and he measured two of the biggest hands at the combine.
Interesting physical tools, athleticism, movement and shotmaking development should earn Johnson plenty of workouts and second-round consideration.
Pelle Larsson
Guard, 6-5, 208lb
BPM #128
PRPG #171
SI 5-16 #42
The Ringer 5-9 #50
Vecenie 5/12 #46
Wasserman 5/31 #43
Givony Woo ESPN 5-31 #45
Why does BPM love him?
Very high Offensive Rating, and very efficient shooting (EFG, TS%) on average Usage, plus above average Assist Rate.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a four-year player.
42.6% 3P shooting but on only 108 shots. Is it a fluke or real improvement over the previous two years of 35% 3P?
Career 81.2% FT and 39.6% 3P DOES inspire hope.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Wendell Moore Jr. 2022
Solomon Hill 2012
Jerian Grant 2015
Cody Martin 2019
Dalen Terry 2022
Desmond Bane 2018
O’Connor, The Ringer
Versatile offensive role player who goes hard on defense and has the upside to be even more.
SHADES OF
Desmond Bane, Grayson Allen
Hustle
Pull-up Threat
Catch-and-shoot Threat
On-Ball Defense
PLUSES
Knockdown shooter off the catch, especially when he’s left open, so he could feast playing alongside star-level talent. He’s one of the best in the draft at using pump fakes to attack closeouts and then scoring on aggressive downhill attacks and pull-up jumpers. He’s a capable passer in those situations, too.
Good athlete who plays with excellent hustle, particularly when running the break and making himself available as a lob target. His effort and feel translate to regular cuts to the rim.
Reliable secondary shot creator in pick-and-rolls who sprays the ball to shooters and cutters around the floor. He will even use some manipulation with eye and head fakes to create openings for teammates.
Stout defender who consistently fights through screens, plays with strong fundamentals, and stays attentive off the ball.
MINUSES
Needs to develop a faster shooting release. Until this season, he had issues hitting heavily contested shots. Though he gets shots off faster than he did before, he still needs to improve to survive against NBA athletes.
NBA.com / Rotowire
Overview
Larsson played four years at the college level, spending his freshman year with Utah and the subsequent three campaigns with Arizona. Larsson started in 18 of his 25 appearances as a freshman for the Utes, averaging 8.2 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists per contest. He moved to Arizona as a sophomore, but his tenure with the Wildcats didn’t begin well, as Larsson started in just two of his 37 appearances while logging a career-low 20.7 minutes per game. Larsson started 18 times in his junior year and experienced a statistical uptick across the board, but he would break out for good in his senior year. Larsson started in each of his 36 appearances with the Wildcats in 2023-24, averaging 12.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game while shooting an impressive 51.9% from the field and an elite 42.6% from beyond the arc. Larsson was named to the 2023-24 All-Pac 12 Second Team, a year in which he also finished sixth in assists per game.
Analysis
A 6-foot-5 guard with a strong frame, Larsson already looks the part of an NBA player who should be capable of holding his own on the defensive end. However, his biggest asset lies on offense, as he’s emerged as a reliable shooter, both in catch-and-shoot and off-ball situations. Due to his athleticism and strong frame, he’s a threat when finishing at the rim, but there’s a strong chance his offensive game at the next level will rely primarily on his shooting ability. Larsson can also thrive in pick-and-roll situations, particularly as the ball-handler due to his excellent vision. Larsson can potentially fulfill the role of a secondary ball-handler at the NBA level, though he’d thrive even more as a catch-and-shoot alternative with enough athleticism to attack the rim if given enough space. Defensively, he should be ready to make an impact at the next level since he’s a shooting guard with the build of a small forward, though he doesn’t profile to be a difference-making presence on that end of the floor.
Projection
Larsson’s mold can be found often in the NBA right now. He’s a versatile guard who can defend multiple positions while emerging as a reliable catch-and-shoot threat, with the possibility of an even more significant role on offense if his game keeps developing. That should warrant a long career in The Association, as teams all over the league have the need for a competent wing who can make his presence felt on both ends of the court.
Ersin Demir
Playing for the Swedish national team on top of his 133 games in college basketball, Larsson is one of the more experienced players in this class. At 23 years old, he had two years of professional basketball before transferring to Utah in 2020.
After a solid freshman year at 8.2 points and 46.3% shooting from three, Larsson transferred to Arizona. With Coach Tommy Lloyd knowing what he’d get, Larsson improved and earned a starting role in the second half of his junior year, whereafter he kept doing what he does best: improve his teammates.
At 6’5.25” without shoes, Larsson has the size to play the one, two, and three at the next level. His efficient but low-usage role made him one of the more unique players in college. With NBA teams competing for a title and looking to add such guys around their stars, his experience and NBA-ready game make him one of the safest bets in this class. This report is solely focusing on his NBA role.
Physical Profile
Combined with his size, Larsson has a good upper-body strength. At 212 pounds, he got much stronger during his three years at Arizona. Coach Lloyd valued strength and conditioning in Larsson’s development due to the multipositional character of his game. His quickness and footwork stand out on the offensive end when looking at his tools.
As a defender, Larsson is a good athlete who uses his upper-body strength well when contesting at the rim. With a decent vertical pop, the plus value comes from his strong upper-leg area, helping him to power up to contest shots. This combined with the quickness of his feet is a combination NBA teams won’t find often. Therefore, valuing his physical tools is one of the first conclusions drawn by front offices when evaluating his profile.
He’s a decent screen navigator but needs to improve on that end. His positioning and defensive awareness make up for most mistakes he makes when fighting through screens, making improvement feasible when entering the NBA.
Offense
At 42.6%, Larsson is one of the most efficient shooters among high majors this season. Another positive is that his attempts per game also increased— from 2.5 in both his sophomore and junior seasons to 3.0 in his senior year. What makes the shooting numbers more feasible is that Larsson is 45.2% on NBA-ranged threes, as shown by the chart below.
When looking at the mechanics, he shows a consistent jumper. With a 6’7.5” wingspan, Larsson makes up for the lack of length with a high-arcing release. He’s quick to set his feet and doesn’t need much time to power up for the shot. …
Another area that will translate well to the NBA level is Larsson using jab steps and fakes to leverage the threat of his rim pressure to create space, with the third play below being an example.
For his NBA role, Larsson’s plays out of closeouts will be the most crucial. He has a rare combination of quick feet and great decision-making in how he’ll exploit the defender closing out on him. This form of offensive creativity will give an NBA franchise some untapped potential to exploit in upcoming years when Larsson earns more on-ball reps.
… more detail in the original report …
Taking into account that Larsson will continue to play as a connector piece in the NBA, his plays out of cuts are another indicator of his success at the next level. He’s an active cutter who stays in motion at all times, disrupting defenses. Another area where Larsson adds value to Arizona’s game is to make connective passes out of these cuts to find open teammates.
This is one of the reasons why he’s averaging 3.7 assists per game despite playing under 20% usage and not having a ball-heavy type of play.
Defense
In Larsson’s defensive role, switching on the perimeter and guarding closeouts is one of the more crucial parts of his role. Throughout his three years at Arizona, his ability to slide his feet is what made him an effective defender on the perimeter.
Larsson has great footwork and together with his quick feet, he can stay attached to his assignment. While closing out, he shows a decent burst, but more importantly a good deceleration by using an aggressive pivot foot to control his opponent’s drive.
… more detail in the original report …
NBA Draft Projection
Larsson will be 23 years old on draft night. For teams looking to compete for a championship, he fits the bill of the multi-positional ball handler who plays in a downscaled role. Most teams want to complement their high-usage stars with a do-it-all wing or guard who plays as the connecting part that improves the other four players on the court.
That’s Larsson’s role at Arizona. And when considering his NBA-ready game combined with his excellent footwork and quick feet, there will likely be a few top NBA teams wanting to draft him with their pick in the latter stages of the first round.
To conclude the scouting report, I project Pelle Larsson to be a late first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, with teams the New York Knicks (picks 24 and 25) and Boston Celtics (pick 30) being the two best teams for him in terms of fit.
Vote
You can vote here. You can also post a comment vote which counts as 10 votes. (Or both.) However, to officially count, the comment must be include exactly one hashtag out of #Ighodaro, #Carlson, #Johnson, #Larsson.
Funny variations cause extra work for me.
I feel like Larsson is the better player but Carlson could potentially unlock a lot of lineups for us. Both guys seem skilled, but I don't trust Carlson is ready to play C in the NBA yet. And Larsson looks like he's physically ready... so I go with #Larsson
Pritchard hitting that buzzer beater to the 3rd…. it’s their year man. He’s having his JP moment.