2024 DNHQ Draft Tournament: Finding late second round gems

We continue our tradition of voting for whom the Warriors should draft

The Live Draft Reaction Threads

For maximum entertainment, read all the live comments in

• Warriors GM Mike Dunleavy Jr explains getting Quinten Post and Lindy Wells III and all the moves on draft day

• Meet all the new Warriors: Quinten Post, Lindy Waters III, and Reece Beekman (with all Apricot’s draft day commentary, including agonizing about losing Post)

• Meet Lindy Waters III, the newest Warrior; GSW sends OKC 2024 pick #52

• Warriors pick today in NBA Draft; starts 1:00pm Pacific; mini scouting reports for the best players left

• 2024 NBA Draft, 1st Round today 5:00pm Pacific. Warriors draft Thursday in 2nd Round (unless a wild trade happens).

First, some self-congratulations

The linked Dunleavy interview resolved one enduring mystery to me, which was that I was convinced that Quinten Post was the perfect Warriors draft prospect due to statistics, draft projection, and team needs. EXCEPT… he never had a publicly announced draft workout, so I wondered if GSW had identified a problem with his profile.

It’s pretty obvious that GSW needs a stretch 5 (since Draymond and Kuminga both don’t get guarded at the 3 point line). The standout was Quinten Post, who was also popping with BPM, a simple statistical measure. BPM thought he was the #31 most productive college player in the country out of 5,000+ players.

Because he wasn’t mocked to be drafted, I marked him as a GSW priority undrafted free agent in a public mock draft at the end of May — except for the fact that he hadn’t worked out, so I elevated Branden Carlson (the other notable stretch 5 in the class) who did have a GSW workout. And regardless of the lack of workout, I left him in the 2024 DNHQ Draft Tourney and then again called on GSW to make him a priority.

And… lo and behold, he was drafted. And then… Dunleavy confirms that he actually did have an unannounced draft workout and interview. I feel very proud of identifying Post even without the visible evidence. Kind of like inferring the existence of Pluto from basic principles.

After a streak of three years where I was absolutely the opposite of GSW’s drafters and GSW drafted my last choice, it is now two years in a row where GSW drafted the exact guy(s) that I predicted them to target. I feel that under MDJ there has been a marked turn toward the analytics-friendly approach, for better or worse.

Reece Beekman on a two-way is something I did NOT anticipate. Even though he has outstanding analytics (BPM #21 in the country!!!), he just seems too small and his jump shot is not good. But he is an excellent on-ball defender (multiple-time ACC Defensive Player of the Year) and GSW coaches said they need that. So, we have our own Davion Mitchell coming in. As for my predictive power, at least I put him in the Tourney, even if I too-quickly dismissed him as too small.

The 2024 DNHQ Draft Tournament

The tournament is designed for people who are not draft experts to catch up at a casual pace on prospects in the Warriors range. For this reason, I have sliced it up into a series of smaller votes instead of a massive 16+ player scouting report. These will be spaced out over the next few weeks until the NBA Draft on June 26-27.

The ultimate goal is for you to develop opinions and attachments about the different prospects, so you can

• argue with others,

• dream about the future,

• enjoy the draft with more suspense and emotional investment,

• and then in the future tell everyone how you had it right and the drafters were a bunch of idiots.

Despite our stellar track record, it’s unlikely we’ll guess exactly whom the Warriors will draft.

So it’s time for more! The Warriors have the #52 pick. Normally, you might say, why bother even thinking about this pick, because, in that range, the chances that you’ll get an NBA pro is quite small.

However, the Warriors have really set the bar high, with 2023 #57 draft pick Trayce Jackson-Davis (solid big man and occasional starter as a rookie) and 2022 #55 pick Gui Santos (folk hero).

void’s Big Board Vote Site

Super commenter void has made (again) a web app where you can record your Big Board for our limited pool of “Might Fall To #52” Tourney participants.

I particularly like this site, because you can put your money where your mouth is. So when you start bragging about how all your draft picks were better than the dumb Warriors pick, people can check. For instance, you can look at all my draft picks from since 2021, from brilliant to horribly misguided.

• void’s DNHQ Big Board Vote Site

And yes yes everyone always wants to trade the pick for someone ready to contribute. Please don’t be obvious and boring and suggest that.

That’s like going to Disneyland and explaining that everyone there is exploited labor and that feline leukemia is the #1 killer of cats.

The Winner of Our Draft Tournament

The Finals

The winner of our FIFTH annual DNHQ Draft Tournament, where Dub Nation gets to vote on whom the Warriors should draft via head to head showdowns, is…

• N'Faly Dante 46%

• Jalen Bridges 53% WINNER

Thanks to all the voters and the many thoughtful comments along the way. No matter what happens, on this journey I have come to become attached to quite a few of these prospects and will be keeping an eye on their professional basketball careers.

• Wrap-up discussion plus Apricot’s mock selection of the GSW draft pick in a draft analyst mock.

Here are the weighted votes each player got (1.0 votes per 1st round Group, 2.0 votes per 2nd round Group, 4.0 votes for the Final). I think this rough measure is a decent quick estimate of voter support for each player.

• Jalen Bridges 3.82

• N'Faly Dante 3.15

• Pelle Larsson 1.46

• Cam Spencer 1.17

• Jamison Battle 0.8

• Jaylin Williams 0.77

• Dillon Jones 0.62

• Quinten Post 0.33

• Jaylen Wells 0.32

• Branden Carlson 0.3

• PJ Hall 0.27

• Antonio Reeves 0.24

• Anton Watson 0.24

• Jaedon LeDee 0.18

• Jonathan Mogbo 0.14

• Keshad Johnson 0.13

• Reece Beekman 0.12

• KJ Simpson 0.11

• Isaiah Crawford 0.06

• Isaac Jones 0.05

• David Jones 0.04

• Tristen Newton 0.03

• Hunter Sallis 0.02

• Zyon Pullin 0.01

• Oso Ighodaro 0.01

• Dylan Disu 0.01

• Blake Hinson 0.01

DNHQ Draft Tournament Finals

Now it’s time for the winners of the second group stage to have a showdown. Both these players has had a pre-draft workout for the Warriors, so they are legitimate possibilities for the Warriors the draft or invite for a two-way.

All the candidates were discussed thoroughly at the linked header, so we’ll only include the scouting reports for the winners, updated with the latest mock draft ratings.

Dub Nation will never stop pining for a Big Man, so why stop now? Dante, dominant college defender, faces off with Jalen Bridges, tantalizing 3-and-D wing who can create off the dribble.

Semifinals Group 1

• Dillon Jones 3%

• Jaylin Williams 23%

• Cam Spencer 23%

• Jalen Bridges 52% WINNER

Semifinals Group 2

• Pelle Larsson 45%

• Jamison Battle 6%

• N’Faly Dante 48% WINNER

DNHQ Draft Tournament Second Round

Now it’s time for the winners of the first group stage to have a showdown. Every one of these players except Cam Spencer has had a pre-draft workout for the Warriors, so they are legitimate possibilities for the Warriors the draft or invite for a two-way or at least to join their Summer League team.

Group A

• Hunter Sallis 2%

• Dillon Jones 56% WINNER

• Jaedon LeDee 18%

• Anton Watson 24%

Unusual results, as Sallis was the highest rated prospect here, but as it turns out, Sallis withdrew from the draft, so it all worked out.

LeDee is in the mold of a big 3-and-D wing, but his 3P% was on very low volume (42 3PA) and it’s too theoretical for my taste. Watson is in the same boat. He and LeDee were highly productive college players, but GSW just can’t play more 3s and 4s who aren’t proven to shoot threes well.

Dillon Jones is a talent but his game feels like Kuminga’s game with zero dunks. I just have concerns how much he can get in the NBA by bullying people with his size and force. His jump shot is not useable yet. But maybe if he’s played as a point guard and defended by smaller point guards, his game can work. he does have a really high Assist Rate (which statistically tends to translate to the NBA) and FT rate (also translates, but a lot less so). My vote goes to Dillon Jones.

Side Note: my favorite scouting videos are from Cashiggy, who shows all the bad plays too. I included two for Dillon Jones. But I can’t find them for every player. So don’t be biased if only some players have videos showing their flaws...

Group B

• Baylor Scheierman 57% - disqualified for being too awesome

• KJ Simpson 11%

• Dylan Disu 1%

• Jaylin Williams 31% WINNER

Baylor’s stock has rocketed so high that he’s not likely to even fall to the second round, much less the bottom. So I’m declaring the second place finisher, Williams, the winner.

My own vote goes to Williams. Simpson is talented but… I know this sounds reductive but he’s just too short to be a good bet to succeed.

Disu and Williams are vying for top dog in the 3-and-D wing category, and are pretty close statistically. Stats-wise Disu is a slightly better defender. He has a bigger portion of his shot diet in midrange jumpers, which in theory could be good because the new inefficiency is exploiting the midrange shot that contemporary defenses give up (see Brunson, Jalen). But his midranges aren’t that effective statistically (hence why Williams has better scoring efficiency). Williams doesn’t shoot nearly as much from that range. And Williams just looks a little bouncier, and GSW needs bounce.

Group C

• Tristen Newton 3%

• Reece Beekman 12%

• Jonathan Mogbo 14%

• Cam Spencer 71% WINNER

Beekman was a super productive college player, but he’s just too small and slight. He was bullied against Duke’s bigger and more athletic players. Mogbo plays in a higher gear than most players and I always enjoy a good eager passer. But he has really no touch on any shot outside a dunk and I don’t think that’s what GSW needs right now.

Which leaves us with Newton and Spencer, two great glue guys from the national champion UConn team. Two guys that have questions about whether they are athletic enough to guard or score in the NBA. Newton has a great Assist Rate, but he was passing to a starting lineup of all future NBA players. His shooting is not good, despite his MVP performance in the Tournament.

Cam Spencer is my pick. He statistically pops as an absolutely elite college shooter at career numbers of 41.9% 3P, 87.8% FT… that’s CAREER. His last year was even more eye popping: 91.1% FT, 44.0% 3P, even 53.9% from 2P. Statistically his offense is a lot better and even his defense is better than Newton’s. He’s a scrappy player, though he doesn’t have Podziemski’s insane rebounding which helped Podz stay on the court while his shot was malfunctioning. So it’s not clear to me what Spencer will be if he’s not drilling shots, and whether he can really defend at the NBA level. If he’s a better shooting Pat Spencer, that might not be enough to keep him on the court. Nonetheless, when you’re picking in the 50s, all the prospects are long shots, and Cam Spencer at least has one thing that he’s elite at that he can build his game around.

Group D

• Antonio Reeves 24%

• Jalen Bridges 66% WINNER

• Isaiah Crawford 6%

• Isaac Jones 5%

Okay, you know it’s not a fix because my guy Antonio Reeves didn’t win this group, not even close. The dream of Reeves is that he’s a spark plug scorer who can create off the dribble, make creative finishes, and light it up from three; that he was held back by playing a role on a stacked disorganized Kentucky team and still managed to be a leading scorer; he played off-ball a lot at UK but in his previous schools he was successful at creating on-ball. The bad scenario is that he’s bad Jordan Poole who’s a black hole on offense and a matador on defense. Nonetheless, a guy who was elite at spot up threes in college and who can create off the dribble? Reeves has my vote.

But I get it. If Bridges’s senior year 41.7% 3P is real (and the career 79.6% FT is encouraging), then he might be the legendary big wing 3-and-D guy that returns spacing and athleticism to GSW lineups. He’s not just a guy to sit in the corner, he’ll handle the ball in the pick and roll, go between the legs, and pull up for 3 in your face.

Crawford’s another 3-and-D mold wing and he’s racked up strong Block/Steal rates compared to Bridges. But he looks less fluid on offense and he played against weaker opposition.

Jones is a smallball center who is very resourceful in his scoring, but ultimately it’s hard to take a guy who has no three point shot (6-32 career) and whose defense is merely good not great statistically.

Group E

• Oso Ighodaro 1%

• Branden Carlson 30%

• Keshad Johnson 13%

• Pelle Larsson 56% WINNER

Woof, this was a group of death. I wouldn’t be too sad if any of these four were drafted.

Ighodaro looks like a budding Draymond Green on offense, but his defense — while positive at +3.0 DBPM — is not Draymond level (+5.0 DBPM in his draft year). If GSW didn’t have Draymond, Oso would be even more intriguing. But Ighodaro’s lack of jumper makes Draymond look like Sabrina Ionescu in comparison: Oso shot 0-2 from three in four years and 109 games. Given GSW’s spacing issues and the related stunting of Kuminga’s offense, I can’t see it.

Keshad Johnson could be an absolute steal if his jumper is real. It’s just hard to trust 93 shots, with 64% FT — a better indicator of future 3P% than college 3P%.

• On Johnson, Sam Vecenie just wrote: Johnson is the kind of player the Warriors have loved in recent years: He excels without the ball in his hands. A transfer to Arizona from San Diego State this year, Johnson’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s a good defender across the positional spectrum and a strong wing rebounder. He’s on the short list of “best overall athletes” in the class, a powerful, explosive wing who is still working on his skill development. I’d venture the Warriors would want someone who can move the ball better and who is a more consistent shooter, but if they trust their developmental staff to help him continue to iron out his jumper (he’s a low-volume 39 percent 3-point shooter who hadn’t shown much in that respect prior to this season), you can make a case for him at No. 52.

Larsson is an easy prospect to like. He looks like he could step on the court and play Moses Moody / Brandin Podziemsk’s role as decent shooting big guard glue guy. (Note: he is a year older than Moody.) Pelle Larsson looks a little like a Klay Thompson replacement if you squint. A sharpshooter who can hit from NBA range, he hustles on defense (+2.5 DBPM) and looks athletic enough to defend big guards. Everyone says he’s a knockdown shooter, but his shooting volume wasn’t actually that high (108 3PA, and 87 and 92 the previous two years… in contrast Carlson shot 169 3PA just last year). So, I’d be happy to draft him, but…

The dream of Branden Carlson is that he’s a shot-blocking 7-0 big guy who’s a stretch 5 with some athleticism. His shot blocking is respectable (finished between 2nd and 4th each of his five years), but his swing skill — the one that will decide whether he’s a super valuable Brook Lopez or on the fringe of the league — is obviously his three-point shot. How real is it? Giving him the same treatment as Keshad above, his career FT% is 72.8%. Seems a little low, but who can really tell? Compared to similar stretch 5 prospect Quinten Post, he seems to be willing to attempt more closely defended threes from farther away. At Utah, Carlson had a different role, pick-and-popping, cutting to the arc as a release option, and posting up, and usually meant to score on the play. So he didn’t show off as much of a playmaking game. All in all, the Stretch Five is rarer and more valuable to GSW than another competent shooting big guard, so my vote goes to Carlson.

Group F

• PJ Hall 27%

• David Jones 4%

• Jamison Battle 68% WINNER

• Blake Hinson 1%

Hall won the poll vote but the comment votes broke heavily in numbers, if not enthusiasm, for Battle. Dub Nation was not generally excited about this group of prospects.

PJ Hall is a big who shoots threes. (Notice I didn’t say he shoots threes WELL… his shot looks okay, but the production wasn’t there in college.) He reportedly impressed GSW in the workout. But he’s 6-8.25 in socks and he was listed as 7-0, which is borderline fraudulent. This greatly decreases my interest in him, if he can’t be a proper stretch 5.

David Jones is apparently a super talented player held back by issues of temperament and discipline. The poster child for taking a risk like this is GG Jackson in 2023. But more often you get James Bouknight… (And to be honest, before MEM takes too many victory laps on that, let’s see how GG Jackson does when he faces a little adversity on a team actually trying to win.) But, if GSW thinks they can help Jones mature and if all my other favorites are off the board… then maybe it’s okay to take an old fashioned high risk high reward flyer.

Jamison Battle can shoot the hell out of the ball. He just doesn’t do much more in terms of defense and playmaking. This kind of player is a little scary because if someone like Duncan Robinson or Ryan Anderson is hitting 3s, then he can play but if their shooting falls off a little bit, then they are unplayable. I was willing to take a flyer on Jordan Hawkins last year in the same mold, but he was younger and had the glamour of the NCAA Championship. Battle gets my vote, reluctantly.

Blake Hinson did score in college, but doesn’t pass much or defend much. It feels like there are probably numerous similar prospects in the G-League.

Group G

• Jaylen Wells 32%

• Quinten Post 33%

• Zyon Pullin 1%

• N'Faly Dante 35% WINNER

Well, that was close. Many people expressed that Group G was much stronger than Group F.

After Coleman Hawkins returned to college, Quinten Post became the most accomplished Stretch 5 likely to fall to the bottom of the second round. The offense at Boston College often ran through Post at the high or low post with numerous off-ball cutters, so I think Post would fit in quickly in the Kerrball system. He also is a legit 7-0 in socks who was #2 in blocks in the ACC so there is rim protection there. Did I mention he shot a stunning 43.1% and 42.6% 3P in his last two years? That’s over 170 3PA. His career FT% is 80.1%, so that shooting looks real. Post gets my vote.

If you believe in BPM, then you should believe in Dante. BPM is absolutely INFATUATED with Dante, ranking him the 4th most productive player in the country. DBPM thinks Dante is the #15 defender in the country. Being a block and steal leader is unusual. On offense, well, the guy can dunk and catch lobs. Hey, if he had a big offensive package, he’d be going in the first round. You know how people always want GSW to get a rim protector? Dante is your man.

Pullin reminds me of Davion Mitchell. Weak from 3, will not dunk, but is a dogged defender and very solid offense organizer. Ultimately, GSW needs spacing, either vertical dunk threat or 3 point shooting, and Pullin is neither.

Jaylen Wells has a creative sparkle which GSW needs. His shot diet is too jumper heavy, but it feels like that could improve with coaching. Ultimately, if that player we saw this year is for real, he could be pretty useful. But he needs to contribute more on defense and team offense, and there’s this nagging feeling that it could have been one hot shooting half-season.

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void’s Big Board Vote Site

Super commenter void has made (again) a web app where you can record your Big Board for our limited pool of “Might Fall To #52” Tourney participants.

I particularly like this site, because you can put your money where your mouth is. So when you start bragging about how all your draft picks were better than the dumb Warriors pick, people can check. For instance, you can look at all my draft picks from since 2021, from brilliant to horribly misguided.

• void’s DNHQ Big Board Vote Site

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All about the Tournament design, theory crafting, etc.

The DNHQ Draft Tournament is collectively wise

Our past four DNHQ Draft Tourneys are preserved on the Internet (with comment threads about lots of different prospects, and the live agony of each Draft Night. Some highlights from the past:

• 2020. Wanting Tyrese Haliburton over James Wiseman at #2. This is the called shot that will cast reflected glory on the Draft Tourney for years.

• 2021. Top choices were Moses Moody and Alperen Sengun at #7, along with Scottie Barnes and Jonathan Kuminga in the “won’t fall to us” special election.

• 2022. DNHQ wanted eventual All-Rookie First Team Jalen Williams (but by then it was clear his stock had skyrocketed past #28) and wanted E.J. Liddell (who promptly tore his ACL, sorry)

• 2023. Top two DNHQ picks at #19 were Dereck Lively II and Jordan Hawkins. I took a rare personal victory lap for basically predicting by name that GSW would draft Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jaime Jaquez or Brandin Podziemski.

Who should be in the Tourney? My brilliant plan

This is the hardest Tourney to assemble yet, since so many players could be considered at #52.

My brilliant idea¹ is to include every college player who

• has been projected to NOT be drafted in the first round²

• was a US college junior or senior ranked as a Top 100 player by at least one projection

  • Younger players on track to fall to the bottom of the second round should just return to school. This is true from an NBA earning standpoint, and also the new college NIL deals are hitting 7 figures, so college players can make huge money.

  • International players in this range can usually make more money overseas so only very unusual players will come to the US (like Gui Santos).

• is ranked in the Top 50 nationally in either BPM or PRPG.

Reality check: who would this have identified in the 2023 Draft?

All in one stats like BPM are very limited. But they are also useful. And most importantly, they seem to correlate with being valued by NBA drafters. Specifically, the Warriors draft has taken a big turn towards the analytically-friendly under Mike Dunleavy Jr.

For instance, let’s see who I would have picked for a 2023 Tourney for second-rounders using this technique, in order of BPM.

• Trayce Jackson-Davis (actual pick 57)

• Marcus Sasser 25

• Jaylen Clark 53

• Adama Sanogo #N/A, two-way with CHI

• Jalen Pickett 32

• Jaime Jaquez Jr. 18

• Oscar Tshiebwe #N/A, two-way with IND, All–NBA G League 1st Team.

• Colin Castleton #N/A, two-way contract with LAL

• Kobe Brown 30

• Sir'Jabari Rice #N/A, two-way with SAS, I think now in G-League, no two-way.

• Adam Flagler #N/A, two-way with OKC

• Jordan Miller 48

• Jalen Wilson 51

This simple algorithm identified 13 college players who were not projected to be drafted in the first round and every single one of them got a contract with an NBA team. 8 were drafted (3 drafted as reaches in the 1st round) and the other 5 got a two-way contract. And of course, the algorithm identified the top player as Trayce Jackson-Davis, GSW’s actual late 2nd round pick.

Note: Brandin Podziemski would have been #5 on the list except that he was officially a sophomore.

So I feel good that, for such a simple recipe, it does identify interesting prospects that can get onto NBA teams, and did highlight the actual Warriors draft picks.

Update 2024-05-22

In the very minor victories category, GSW is bringing in for draft workouts:

• Lamont Butler (San Diego State)

• Isaac Jones (Washington State)

• Jaylin Williams (Auburn)

• Coleman Hawkins (Illinois)

• Antonio Reeves (Kentucky)

• Payton Sandfort (Iowa)

https://x.com/JDumasReports/status/1793379556046598259

The last four are all in the field for our upcoming Draft Tourney and the other two are not projected to be drafted. So I am feeling good about the Tourney selection process.

The preliminary 2024 field

Here are the players fitting that simple recipe. I removed players that withdrew from the draft, and also am making the executive decision to remove players 6-1 and shorter, due to the aversion to short players by Steve Kerr (and frankly, the rest of the NBA).

• Hunter Sallis (5/29 - withdrew from NBA Draft)

• Dillon Jones

• Jaedon LeDee

• Anton Watson
  

• Baylor Scheierman

• K J Simpson

• Dylan Disu

• Jaylin Williams
  

• Payton Sandfort (5/29 - withdrew from NBA Draft)

• Tristen Newton

• Reece Beekman

• Jonathan Mogbo
  

• Cam Spencer

• Jalen Bridges

• Zyon Pullin

• Coleman Hawkins (5/29 - withdrew from NBA Draft)
  

• Isaiah Crawford

• Antonio Reeves

• Quinten Post

• N Faly Dante

• Jamir Watkins (5/29 - withdrew from NBA Draft)

In case you were wondering, the players were sorted by consensus mock draft order and then the top pair was put with the bottom pair, etc and the last group is the middle five.

The revised 2024 field (2024-06-02)

We revised the field because:

1. A few players ended up going back to college at the deadline of May 29 2024

2. I also added in anyone projected as draftable who had a workout with GSW.³
   

• Dillon Jones - had GSW pre-draft workout

• Jaedon LeDee

• Anton Watson
  

• Baylor Scheierman

• K J Simpson

• Dylan Disu

• Jaylin Williams - had GSW pre-draft workout
  

• Tristen Newton

• Reece Beekman

• Jonathan Mogbo

• Cam Spencer
  

• Antonio Reeves - had GSW pre-draft workout

• Jalen Bridges - had GSW pre-draft workout

• Isaiah Crawford - had GSW pre-draft workout

• Quinten Post

• Zyon Pullin

• N Faly Dante

Added due to GSW pre-draft workout

• Isaac Jones

• Oso Ighodaro

• Branden Carlson

• Keshad Johnson

• Blake Hinson

• Pelle Larsson
  

• PJ Hall

• David Jones

• Jamison Battle

Not included

• Alex Karaban (officially a sophomore) (5/29 - withdrew from NBA Draft)

• Xaivian Lee (officially a sophomore) (5/29 - withdrew from NBA Draft)
  

• Isaiah Stevens (too short, 6-0)

• Jamal Shead (too short, 6-1)

• Mark Sears (too short, 6-1) (5/29 - withdrew from NBA Draft)
  

• Johni Broome (withdrew, back to Auburn… by the way, this guy will be the Trayce of the 2025 Draft)

• Ryan Kalkbrenner (withdrew, back to Creighton)

And the following are not eligible due to being projected in the first round.

• Alexandre Sarr

• Nikola Topic

• Rob Dillingham

• Stephon Castle

• Zaccharie Risacher

• Reed Sheppard

• Ron Holland

• Donovan Clingan

• Matas Buzelis

• Robert Dillingham

• Cody Williams

• Dalton Knecht

• Jared McCain

• Isaiah Collier

• Tidjane Salaun

• Devin Carter

• Kyle Filipowski

• Ja'Kobe Walter

• Tristan da Silva

• Yves Missi

• Bub Carrington

• Kel'el Ware

• Tyler Smith

• Johnny Furphy

• DaRon Holmes

• Zach Edey

• Terrence Shannon

• Bobi Klintman

• Kevin McCullar

• Jaylon Tyson

• Kyshawn George

• Tyler Kolek

Feel free to nominate specific players for inclusion!

The votes will start this week.

Every draft I have a wildcard round or two of new players who have emerged during the Tourney. So be sure to tell me who I’m missing. Notably, a side effect of the design is that I did not include any non-college prospects.

1. Here was the design process.

The approach from the last couple of tourneys would have been something like to take all the players mocked by any reputable analyst to fall between #45 and #60, but that turned out to be a LOT of players because of the nature of the late second round.

Then if you try to use an average mock rank, the variance of the ratings is very high for the late second round, so it doesn’t feel right and the rankings are changing a lot.

I also considered only looking at the players that Warriors bring in for draft workouts, as I believe they have always worked out the domestic players that they draft. But these workouts happen too late for the tournament, and also are irregularly reported.

Also I wanted a scheme that would have had us considering Trayce Jackson-Davis last year for the second round, and he was a consensus 30s pick, so he would be missed by these schemes that look at players mocked to the 50s.

So you need a scheme that includes the whole second round. Then how to trim down the players? You can’t pick the best ones by draft analyst, because those players are bound to go in the 30s and 40s.

So I went for BPM as a way to catch the sleeper picks that might not be valued by most draft analysts, but that analytics-friendly NBA teams would consider. And yes, that scheme would have included TJD in a very natural way.

Without adding PRPG, we would have missed

• Zyon Pullin

• Payton Sandfort

• Antonio Reeves

• Hunter Sallis

• Dillon Jones

Who are five of the most interesting cases to discuss! So even though I think BPM has been more predictive of draftability, it was more fun with PORP.

Anyway, you really know you got it right when people think, “oh of course, that’s the obvious way to plan it, what else would you do?” :)

Thanks to Vanwaril for discussing the design process in the comments.

2. I used the average mock draft position of these sources: CBS 4-23, The Ringer O’Connor 5-9, TheAthletic Vecenie 4-19, Wasserman 4-23

3. I did take the liberty of omitting Jared McCain, who had a GSW workout but who is also mocked to go in the low lottery.