The Porzingis trade, scattered thoughts
Leaves from the vine / Falling so slow
Table of Contents
What were the trades?
Is the Giannis dream dead ?
You can see everyone’s instant reaction to the trades, which was extremely negative:
In real time (newest comments)
Post-trade thread (oldest comments).
Because we’d been led to believe that getting Giannis was a realistic chance, it was quite a comedown to trade for a player who seems permanently on the disabled list.
It reminds me of the piercing wail that Dub Nation let out when D’Angelo Russell was traded for Andrew Wiggins. Both cases are similar in that we had a player that didn’t fit on the team (DLo and JK) who seemed to have trade value (DLo was an All-Star! JK is an elite athlete!) and Dub Nation got excited thinking about the return (Aaron Gordon? Robert Covington? Multiple picks?) (GIANNIS??) and so when instead we got back a flaky talent at the low point of their reputation, it felt pretty bad.
Minutes after the trade deadline passed, Giannis posted social media implying that he never wanted to leave and also that he was advertising for a sketchy prediction market.
Eric Apricot (9 ♡):
Dub Nation may have been dodged by a bullet
We won’t have to wrestle with the Kuminga riddle any longer, but the shadow of Giannis will continue to hang over us through summer.
The Warriors remain at least somewhat optimistic that if the Bucks don’t move Antetokounmpo by Thursday afternoon’s deadline, there will still be a chance to rekindle talks with the Bucks in the summer… Another key here, assuming that the Warriors don’t include Butler in any deals over the summer, is Green either picking up his option or opting out as part of a sign-and-trade. Porzingis could also agree to a sign-and-trade…
The good news for Warriors GM Mike Dunleavy is that roster limits are much looser in the summer. He could add more money in the short-term in an attempt to make a deal happen. Separately, if the Warriors wait until after the draft in June, they could potentially include their 2026 pick and their 2027 first-round picks to give the Bucks more assets in the short term.
How is Buddy taking it?
Buddy on Instagram: “I’m going to miss almost all of my teammates”
Photo: picture of bench with Jimmy centered
How do analysts grade the trade?
Here is an aggregation of several analysts giving grades to the trade. Overall, lots of Bs and Cs. General theme: yes healthy Porzingis would be perfect (7-2, can shoot 3s, pass, score inside, block shots and rebound) but he’s so very not healthy.
It’s very hard to grade this trade (put aside the ridiculousness of grading on Day 0), because of the injury variance and unknowns. But healthy Steph + Jimmy + KP + Dray is absolutely a contender. Will we ever see healthy versions of each ever again? No one can guess with accuracy.
So one perspective is: this trade swaps the low chance that Kuminga blossoms into a star for the low chance that KP stays healthy enough to contribute, and I’d say our new ceiling is higher than the old ceiling.
When will Porzingis play, if ever?
Kristaps Porzingis has missed a lot of playing time with a parade of lower body injuries. His games played in the last five years: 51, 65, 57, 42, 17 so far this year out of ~50 games. That’s a lot more than zero, but it does make you wonder if he can stay healthy enough to contribute in the playoffs.
But overshadowing everything and making it difficult to be sure of his availability is POTS.
Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) is a condition that causes a number of symptoms when you transition from lying down to standing up, such as a fast heart rate, dizziness and fatigue. While there’s no cure, several treatments and lifestyle changes can help manage the symptoms.
There’s a lot more medical information at that link but there is a wide variance from person to person in symptoms and treatment, so it’s hard to judge Porzingis’s case.
Porzingis has appeared in only 17 games for the Hawks this season after playing just 42 out of 82 for the Celtics in his final season in Boston.
The Warriors hope to get Porzingis back healthy and productive for the stretch run. He hasn’t played since Jan. 7, but team sources said they anticipate Porzingis will make his return soon after joining Golden State. The Warriors are 27-24 and currently eighth in the Western Conference.
Porzingis will play sooner than we think, considering a lot of us are not hopeful that he’ll play at all. He is ramping up with workouts with Rick Celebrini (and he seems to be very enthusiastic about his workout with Rick). Both Porzingis and Steph Curry are targeting a return after the All-Star break, which will be February 19 against the Celtics.
Dr. Pandaya on KP & POTS. In short: POTS not well understood but he thinks Celebrini & GSW are the best environment for KP.
How is the trade addition by addition?
Let’s consider a healthy Porzingis. Here’s a quick analytics overview of Porzingis’s game.
He brings self-creation in the post and gets fouled a lot
He shoots well from three-point range.
His passing is active (4 AST/G) but turnovers reduce his Passer Rating
On defense, he is 7-2 and blocks everything and rebounds everything.
I’m very curious to see how KP will play in Kerrball. Kerr has simply never had a true center who can create for himself in the post (washed DeMarcus Cousins doesn’t count). It’s easy to dream of throwing the ball to KP in the post, running a few off-ball screens for easy catch and shoots, and if it’s not there, then KP tries to score in the post with any possible help defense distracted by the offball movement.
As to how he synergizes with the rest of GSW, the answer is (on paper) he fits perfectly. You could not design a better complement to the squad.
With Steph Curry
Let him set a screen for Steph Curry. If teams play off Steph (yeah right), Steph shoots 3s. If teams play off KP, KP can pop out for 3s. If teams switch, then KP can take his mismatch to the post and punish.
With Jimmy Butler
Porzingis shooting makes it possible to play Jimmy and Draymond together (2 non-shooters is already pushing it and 3 would be unplayable)
In the non-Steph minutes, KP and Jimmy can take turns being the offensive engine (on the court together or staggered)
Together, KP can play pick-and-pop with Jimmy.
With Draymond Green
KP can be the true center and rim protector and take the assignments of defending 7-footers. This leaves Draymond to play a roving 4 which plays into his strengths of his agility, smarts and core strength and away from his weaknesses of height and wearing down physically against big centers.
On offense, KP can spot up as a 3-point spacer so Draymond can be in the play as a screener and passer (as opposed to being a shooting spacer which Draymond is terrible at).
Other schematic pluses
KP is good against the worst matchup for GSW right now: a team like Atlanta with a whole lineup full of athletic defending wings.
Against Steph, they can rough him up (Rules? What rules?) and stay just close enough to bother his shot. Against Jimmy, they can resist Butler’s bullyball force. Against the motion offense, they can switch everything since no one can efficiently punish a mismatch.
Against KP, he’ll have a mismatch in the post and he can work on the smaller defender. That will eventually force help to rotate for a defensive breakdown. If the other team counters by playing a true big to stop KP, now Steph and Jimmy have a vulnerable player to target in the pick and roll.
There hasn’t been too much hype yet, but I believe the wave of the future is double big lineups. (Think KD/Sengun, Hartenstein/Holmgren.)
With double bigs, you can always have one in the paint guarding the basket. With one big, you are vulnerable to having them dragged out to the perimeter on ball screens.
But this kind of lineup is only possible if one of them can shoot 3s. Even better if both can. In two seasons, GSW have collected three stretch 5s: KP, Horford, and Post. KP / Horford / Draymond / Jimmy / Steph sounds pretty intriguing.
And who knows, maybe in the future… F everything, we’re doing 5 bigs.
And if KP and Al Horford are on minutes/game restrictions, that’s not great. But with two of them, they could trade off to cover both sides of a back-to-back or play a little more when the other isn’t available.
How is the trade addition by subtraction?
JK and Buddy, for all their good qualities, were the #13 and #15 players on the team in EPM (one of the most respected all-in-one numbers). (Also, Trayce was #18.) They were literally the 3 worst regulars. Even if KP never plays, just giving their minutes to other players on the roster could improve the team.
If Porzingis ever plays again at his normal level (BIG IF), he’s also a EPM beast (93rd percentile) and should schematically fit really well as a stretch true center.
It’s reminiscent of last season where GSW traded Andrew Wiggins and the 3 lowest EPM players (Kyle Anderson, Dennis Schröder, Lindy Waters III) for an EPM god (Jimmy Butler, currently #12 in the NBA, 98th percentile), which resulted in a massive positive swing of EPM and a lot of wins.
FYI, here are all the current season EPM numbers: Off EPM, Def EPM, Total EPM (the sum).
Stephen Curry, +6.3, −1.2, +5.1
Jimmy Butler III, +3.2, +1.2, +4.4
De’Anthony Melton, +1.6, +1.7, +3.2
Kristaps Porziņģis, +1.8, +0.9, +2.6 (INCOMING)
Moses Moody, −0.1, +1.6, +1.5
Brandin Podziemski, −0.7, +1.6, +0.9
Quinten Post, +0.1, +0.3, +0.4
Gui Santos, −0.7, +0.8, +0.1
Al Horford, −0.3, +0.4, +0.1
Gary Payton II, −1.0, +1.0, +0.0
Draymond Green, −1.8, +1.5, −0.3
Will Richard, −1.5, +1.2, −0.3
Jonathan Kuminga, −1.3, +0.3, −1.0 (OUTGOING)
Pat Spencer, −1.2, +0.1, −1.1
Buddy Hield, −0.3, −1.1, −1.5 (OUTGOING)
LJ Cryer, −1.3, −0.7, −2.0
Seth Curry, −1.3, −0.8, −2.1
Trayce Jackson-Davis, −1.9, −0.3, −2.2 (OUTGOING)
Malevy Leons, −3.5, −1.0, −4.5
On Jerome Englemann grading the trade as a win for GSW:
Eric Apricot (10 ♡): I’m not surprised. Englemann has done a lot of work on XRAPM.com which is loosely correlated to EPM and also ranks Hield, Trayce and Kuminga as the three most negative regulars on GSW. Also Porzingis is near the top of the league (90th percentile) so I’m guessing his analysis is the same as mine: giving the minutes of those 3 to other Warriors itself is a win even if KP never plays, and KP is a massive plus for whatever seconds he can play for GSW.
What happens if it’s a disaster…?
I agree that everything rides on how much Porzingis will play. I’m emotionally prepared for zero. But **if** KP can play just the games that Horford doesn’t, then that could be an improvement on the team this year.
So from that perspective, the trade converts two statistically negative DNPs into a chance that this year can get better and also preserves the salary spot for a summer sign-and-trade. I would think a KP sign-and-trade would be more than he could get on the open market so he’d be open to that.
Bonus: A couple of salary cap notes / signing Nate Williams
With the trade deadline passing, the Warriors have a couple more minor housekeeping items to take care of:
First, they will need to sign a 14th player by Feb. 19. This will come in the form of a Pat Spencer conversion, whose last available NBA game on his Two-Way is tonight. They’ll keep the 15th spot open moving forward to see if anyone interesting becomes available in the buyout market. They have $3.5M cushion below the hard cap to play around with. Otherwise, I’d expect another two-way conversion the last day of the season (Leons?).They’ll have until March 4th to fill the vacated Pat Spencer two-way spot. If they stay in-house, the name I would keep an eye on is: Marques Bolden. He’s been having a really great season for the Santa Cruz Warriors (15.2ppg, 8.8rpg, 1.3bpg on 487/.376/.744).
Update: the Warriors signed Nate Williams to the two-way spot freed up when Pat Spencer was given an NBA contract.
In 2025-26 regular-season play for the G League Nets, Williams has averaged 17.9 points (48.2% field-goal shooting, 34.5% 3-point shooting), 6.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.5 steals. He profiles as a versatile defender on the wing who slashes off the ball on offense, thriving in transition.
"this trade swaps the low chance that Kuminga blossoms into a star for the low chance that KP stays healthy enough to contribute, and I’d say our new ceiling is higher than the old ceiling. "
For me this is the crux of it.
Not trying to look forward to next year too much and a lot of things will need to happen but a starting 5 of Steph, Moses, Jimmy, Dray and KP moves me. Blah blah blah they're old and injury concerns blah blah. At this point in Steph's career we have no choice but to gamble.