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g8tgod's avatar

The statistical part of this article is fascinating and so helpful to fans like me who are less familiar with advanced stats. I will admit to being deflated with the JK trade--drank too much of the Giannis kool-aid, I guess--and am heartened by these numbers.

I am going to hate seeing JK star for Atlanta, if that's what eventually happens. But I can see that either way, the trade is not as bad as I feared.

AttilaTheHun's avatar

Agreed. It sure seems like it was set up that way from the start to get around the rule about not being able to immediately reacquire a player after he's traded.

cannothoop's avatar

Yup. People are paid very good money to find and exploit loopholes.

FooBar's avatar

That's so great to see.

Gracing Ring5 💍's avatar

E1P - All Star Edition! This time it's Explain One Possibility - What is your ALL TIME Warriors What If?

2 Rules

1) Reply with your #1 Warriors What If? and provide details as to why and any speculation if it did/didn't happen.

2) You cannot REPEAT a What if? someone else has posted

May the speculation begin!

crusty quips's avatar

What if Danny Green never fucks Klay's knee up, robbing him of his prime years

Goofus's avatar

There’s always examples of drafts that could’ve gone better, but I often dwell on the guys we’re unable to keep because of cap rules and constraints. Ty Jerome and DDV are examples.

Injuries are another, especially Klay’s.

I guess my biggest is what Draymond hadn’t punched Poole.

fotd's avatar

I’m more in the camp of what if Bob never gave him that wild contract? I think most of us groaned when we found out. Couldn’t stand his matador D.

A wild thought- Is it unreasonable to imagine Poole and Kuminga going to Dallas that summer in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith in, maybe, a sign and trade? The salaries would’ve been close. I remember having that thought when Dallas brought in Kyrie later that year. But JP and JK were owner favs.

AttilaTheHun's avatar

From the wayback machine:

What if Don Nelson and Chris Webber had made peace and CWebb stayed?

Also, what if Nelson hadn't traded Mitch Richmond for Billy Owens and Run TMC had stayed together?

ananthd's avatar

What if Wiseman was drafted by the Wolves?

Range's avatar

Similar but with a humorous twist… what if we accepted the Wolves trade offer and we get Edwards and they get stuck with Wiseman and Kuminga. Wolves fans get to sorrowfully rue another trade with the Warriors for a whole new generation.

Sleepy Freud's avatar

I remember being worried about that happening and being stuck with Edwards. 🙄

g8tgod's avatar
18hEdited

What if Green had not taken the bait with LeBron in that finals game or at least had not been suspended? The Ws go on to close out the Cavs for the back-to-back, and KD never comes to the Ws? Maybe they sign Barnes and try to run it back for the threepeat...

I have a second 'what if?,' but I'll hold it so as not to hog up all of the good ones.

mDuo13's avatar

Back on the subject of the All-Star weekend 3-point contest, IMO the NBA should give Steph Curry a "Threesus emeritus" invite to participate in the 3-point contest after he retires for as long as he still wants to. *Especially* after he retires, participating as kind of the last boss of the 3-point contest would make for great TV and probably a great challenge for up-and-coming sharpshooters to test their mettle against. I'm sure he could perform at an incredibly high level for years after retiring, especially since it comes without the wear and tear of the regular season grind, defenders roughing him up, etc.

cannothoop's avatar

The PGA tour created the "seniors" tour just so people could watch their favs and everyone made more money. A Curry, Thompson, Nash, Kerr 3 point contest comes to mind. . .

cpt nemo's avatar

otoh: the italians in the mens team pursuit beat the US and then brought out the night night :-(

g8tgod's avatar

Thanks for sharing. I haven't watched hardly any of the Olympics, and it was really fun.

The night-night was hilarious.

Human Nature's avatar

Confermo

Buonanotte

Sabiscrashingout.'s avatar

Look at Steph man. So inspirational.

Abaddon's avatar

What is this, YouTube? 😂

Sabiscrashingout.'s avatar

Hahaha. You got me.

crusty quips's avatar

I think there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about the KP Warriors. It very well may not work out. But it might! And it might be a lot of fun to watch, too.

cpt nemo's avatar

i think we are all excited to see. this team, if they stay healthy, but that is a huge IF!

Ty's avatar
1dEdited

Really curious how the Rockets handle this, their next press conference will be interesting

Edit: the ‘Contextual Notes’ on each of them are actually pretty funny

Willy White Shoes's avatar

Eric - ya got me with the onion link, I've never seen that one. Well played, sir.

Captain Jack's avatar

I wonder what we'll end up doing with our 1st rounder this year. Usually I'd be in favor of trading it for immediate help but it never hurts to find more youth/athleticism/length (hopefully with BBIQ) especially in a draft this loaded

Captain Jack's avatar

Cameron Carr is my #1 draft crush and he's projected to go at the range we're most likely picking at but his stock seems to be rising

Captain Jack's avatar

Excluding any consensus Top 10 picks

Captain Jack's avatar

Not trying to look forward to next year too much and a lot of things will need to happen but a starting 5 of Steph, Moses, Jimmy, Dray and KP moves me. Blah blah blah they're old and injury concerns blah blah. At this point in Steph's career we have no choice but to gamble.

fotd's avatar

Can we hang on to Melton and Horford?

Maybe we can cobble together enough rest to get everyone to the playoffs.

Of course, Podz, Post, Santos and your back-up PG of choice could all improve too.

AttilaTheHun's avatar

Horford is under contract with us for next season. Melton might get priced out of our reach but we can hope to hold on to him.

fotd's avatar

No option for Big Al. Thanks.

Heard talk this week on one of the Dub podcasts that one way to keep Melton could be to re-sign Dray to an extension that spreads him out. That would open up a mid-level slot? Then hope and pray that KP and DM both find that sweet spot where they are healthy and play well within the system - AND don’t price themselves out.

AttilaTheHun's avatar

Was it a podcast by someone who knows what they're talking about? That sounds pretty far off to me.

There is no such thing as an "extension" that fits your description unless you mean he plays out his current deal through next season and signs an extension that starts with the '27-'28 season. An extension is just that: It extends an existing contract. But you're talking about saving money next season, and extensions don't work that way.

Draymond has a contract for next season at $27.68M. The Warriors have to pay every last cent unless:

1. They buy him out at a negotiated price — and he has to be willing to be bought out. You're still paying a large part of his salary but you're saving a chunk because he's going away. He's not signing another deal here. If he wants to retire, maybe he'd take the buyout and retire this summer. Normally a guy who doesn't want to retire takes a buyout because he wants to play elsewhere. But Draymond has repeatedly said he wants to play here with Steph next season. He's not unhappy here.

OR

2. The Dubs waive him and stretch that $27.68M over three (I think) seasons. But the Warriors supposedly want to clear the decks financially in the summer of 2027. That's when Draymond, Steph, Butler, and Horford's deals all expire. So it seems very unlikely they'd waive and stretch Draymond and have to pay an extra $9+M or so a year after '27 (assuming they stretch over three seasons).

If they do buy him out or waive him, he's a free agent, and they have no Bird rights. They're negotiating from scratch like every other team. There is no such thing as an extension because his old deal is dead. They sign a brand new deal or none at all. Plus Draymond's a core dynasty player, and they just slapped him in the face by waiving him or trying to buy him out for cheap. He could tell them to waive him and be damned, take their money, and sign with the Lakers or the Pistons.

What am I overlooking?

fotd's avatar

LOL. Possibly not. I listen to a fair amount of Warriors related junk. They don’t have the “peer-review” found here. (I tend to trust everything here that lasts a day without being shot down)

Thank you for the in-depth response. But isn’t Dray on a player-option? That should give our Warrior For Life the right to decline to pick up his option and then renegotiate his 27.6 million season into maybe three seasons at 14million per? If this allowed them to sign Melton, I think Draymond would. He has shown similar flexibility in the past

AttilaTheHun's avatar

By golly you're right, Draymond IS on a player option. I do not think he'd decline it, and I don't have the impression he wants to play three more years. I think next year might be it based on the stuff he has said about retirement over the past year. That's taking an almost 50% pay cut too. But hey, maybe, especially if Steph continues on, which seems likely barring injury. I dunno.

cannothoop's avatar

Literally doing "Go Big or Go Home."

cannothoop's avatar

"this trade swaps the low chance that Kuminga blossoms into a star for the low chance that KP stays healthy enough to contribute, and I’d say our new ceiling is higher than the old ceiling. "

For me this is the crux of it.

SD's avatar

I feel like if it any point in the last 5 years, we had traded JK/the 7th pick for KP, that would’ve been exactly the kind of win-now upside swing that some folks wanted.

It may not work out, but it intrigues me.

JK also intrigued me and he may turn out to be good, but it seems like his time on the Ws had run its course.

GlueAndBold's avatar

MDJ has done an incredible job trading the least impactful players for players with the potential to be HUGELY impactful (Jimmy and now KP). I think he's severely underappreciated.

AttilaTheHun's avatar

I agree MDJ is sometimes unappreciated, although I think he has a pretty good support base here at DNHQ. In addition to getting Jimmy and being willing to roll the dice on KP, MDJ showed needed patience in the JK negotiations.

We also should (and I think many of us do) appreciate MDJ's ability to draft useful players in the lower second round, such as Will Richard, QP, and the now-departed TJD (a good find for where we got him in the draft). Toohey was a miss but he was the 52nd pick, and the odds are against repeatedly finding useful players that far down. And we got Richard in that same draft after MDJ managed to get us two picks for one. Pretty slick.

eponymous_username's avatar

I also give him a pass on the Toohey pick. That was Bogut giving his local guy an inside bead on a shot at making the big show. Who knows if he was actually no good or if his knee (ankle?) was just cooked.

Maybe both? His summer league play (what little of it there was) was just drastically different from the Aussie mixtapes that were floating around post-draft. I don't know if that's entirely explainable by the difference in competition.

AttilaTheHun's avatar

He had the knee problems before the draft, so he was trying to play though injury in summer league. He later had surgery that cost him the season, and nobody picked him up after we waived him in December. So I agree, we don't know what the deal really is. Maybe this summer he'll be on our radar for Santa Cruz.

g8tgod's avatar

Agree with everything you've said about MDJ; he's done well under the circumstances.

I think where he can be criticized is not trading Kuminga before this. Either he thought they could work out something, or he figured he could get a better deal. Neither turned out to be true, and he ended up selling relatively low, as he did with Poole. Both of those are hard situations, but it's hard not to wish that he had moved more decisively earlier and gotten more.

Of course, if he wanted to and Joe Lacob kept vetoing those moves, then I've got nothing.

BayesGT's avatar
1dEdited

Unconvinced this is selling low on JK compared to other deals tbh. This is better than the Royce O’Niel deal imo, and the Monk trade everyone likes to bring up included Moody in the package which would not have been at all worth it. Only exception would be the mysterious Caruso deal but I don’t think we know what the actual parameters involved were, and we do know that Lacob shot it down.

Also disagree that JP and a 1-20 protected pick for CP3 was selling all that low.

g8tgod's avatar

On JK, I was thinking of the days when the offerings were Pascal Siakam, OG Annunoby, et al.

As for JP, trading him AND a 1st rounder for the ancient CP3 definitely seemed like selling low. What they probably should have done was trade Green, but if they were set on trading JP, they should have done it before everything fell apart. JP has not covered himself in glory since his departure from GSW, I'll grant. But I really think things went south with and for him after the punch and when the Ws did NOTHING in the aftermath to discipline Green. They basically took his side. Not a wonder to me that Poole got disenchanted and quit listening to everyone.

AttilaTheHun's avatar

Siakam wasn't coming here because his deal was expiring at the end of that season, and he said he would not re-sign with us. He would have been a half-season rental and gone, and for a pretty price to get him. So that was a non-starter.

We traded JP for CP3 apparently because it got us out of Poole's bad contract. CP3's second season was not guaranteed, and by waiving him we saved $30M, which helped us get under the second tax apron, if I recall correctly. I suspect that was always the plan with CP3.

As for JP, he was always a mixed bag, it's just that when his shot was falling, and defenses hadn't figured him out yet, we overlooked (though we noticed) that he played no defense, his offensive judgement was questionable (albeit he was a youngster), and his handles were shaky at times. Draymond was responsible for the screwed up vibe and making it necessary to deal JP, and I'm certainly not excusing what he did. It sucked. And the Dubs let him off too easy. But as far as who got traded, Draymond was worth several JPs to the Dubs and still is.

It seems that JP hasn't developed much since. He mostly had his pride bruised in that "fight" so that's no excuse. Once he left here, he had a fresh start, and he's responsible for his accomplishments or lack thereof.

BayesGT's avatar
14hEdited

I don’t remember there being actual offers for Siakim/OG, just talking heads saying we should be targeting them. I may be misremembering though. But also, a healthy KP is better than both of them.

fzwinter's avatar
1dEdited

Don't forget Gui as a second round bargain

MyŠarūnas's avatar

Leandro’s legacy

BayesGT's avatar

That wasn’t the MDJ era yet

GlueAndBold's avatar

Yes. I think he has thus far been at least as innovative as Bobgod ever was.

g8tgod's avatar

Seems like Bob's gift wasn't being innovative but making guys feel like they were being heard and wanted. Amazingly, he was supposedly the Draymond whisperer. But I think when he could see that the future was going to be full of conflict for guys like Klay and maybe Dray, he excused himself. Didn't want to have to deal with possibly moving those guys, and I can't say I blame him.

As far as drafting, if he was the decider when for the Wiseman, JK, Moody, PBJ, and Rollins picks, I'd say that... he chose poorly.

AttilaTheHun's avatar

I think you're way underestimating Bob Myers. Bob was involved in much of the dynasty building. He had his share of misses, especially in the draft (though he did draft Poole and Harrison Barnes, for what that's worth), but he did pretty darned well with free agents and trades. He brought in KD, JaVale, ZaZa, DWest, Bogut, Livingston, Igoudala, Otto Porter Jr, GP2, Wiggs, and Speights. There's a reason we called him Bobgod.

I also think Moody was a pretty good pick for where we took him at #14. Rollins was the 44th pick, which is a crap-shoot pick, and he is looking good now; we just didn't have him here long enough.

g8tgod's avatar

Fair enough on Bob. I didn't mean to disparage him; I appreciated much of what he did.

Captain Jack's avatar

Wonder who we're waiting on in the buyout market. Thought the ASB would have been a perfect time to bring someone on board

ananthd's avatar

I think that spot goes unfilled, or they wait till the last mandated day to fill it.

cpt nemo's avatar

Finally went and saw GOAT with the family - actually quite enjoyable!

GlueAndBold's avatar

My brother liked it too.

Bel's avatar

Netflix picked up GOAT along with his documentary ‘The Baddest Speechwriter of All’. I’m going to wait to watch them there.

Hoops2518's avatar

When you are in the Warriors spot, most likely a lucky gamble is the best they can do. KP is definitely in that area. Just think if he plays 65 or 70 games next year. I would imagine he will also be the cheapest player of his talent they can get. He also fits their team perfectly.

Otto Porter was a lucky gamble. It can happen.

A healthy Steph, JB and KP and adding one more needed piece is a legit title contender next year. Hard to ask for anything more while still not mortgaging the future.

NoOneEverGotFired4GuardinSteph's avatar

> 65 or 70 games next year

Sheesh, I'd be happy if he plays half the regular season games and a healthy playoff run

Hoops2518's avatar

The problem is if he plays half the season it means he is not really healthy. I am talking lucky outcome and Celebrini or someone works some magic.

Steph being healthy and at his current level is also improbable. JB and Draymond also improbable. 2022 was inprobable.

Poole playing like a star. Porter healthy. All star level Wiggins. Payton.

I give it a 20% chance.

NoOneEverGotFired4GuardinSteph's avatar

But even Otto didn't play 65 games. So I still think "65 or 70" is asking too much

Arash  “Moody Can’t Shoot”'s avatar

I did the math when we first got him.

Forget games, if we just maintain the average total minutes he’s played over the last like 5 seasons BUT lower his minutes per game to like 20 mins he could play 65-70 games in the season for us.

POTS complicates things, but if it’s manageable like Porzingis/his doctor have been saying then Porzingis on rotation minutes would be useful.

NoOneEverGotFired4GuardinSteph's avatar

That "math" seems to ignore a lot of reality for why games are missed. It's like saying we could get Horford to play more games if we just cut his minutes on back to backs so that he could play both nights - that's not true because the reason he is held out of back to backs is not about playing too many total minutes but about needing recovery that only comes with 0 minutes. Likewise, Porzingis has missed a lot of games due to injuries, and it's not realistic to say if he just played fewer minutes he would never get injured. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being handled more like Al where he is explicitly held out of some games even when he's not injured, as a preventative measure to let his body recover so he can avoid the injuries that come from overexertion/etc.

Arnold's avatar

Looks like the Sixers might be dropping Charles Bassey. Do the Dubs need a backup big insurance for KP and Al? Or is Post sufficient?

Hoops2518's avatar

Jeez is QP now questionable as a third center?

BayesGT's avatar

I’d think its moreso as insurance for both KP and Al’s health. If it’s a back to back there’s a good chance both are out, might be worth not having Dray need to play center.