Update: GSW trades for Lindy Waters II, sends pick #52 to OKC. Was: Warriors pick today in NBA Draft; starts 1:00pm Pacific; mini scouting reports for the best players left
We calculate the exact moment you will be mad about GSW's draft selection
Apricot and Perks Draft Watch Party Live Stream
Starting 2pm Pacific.Check out theDNHQ YouTube channelto watch and chat with other fans.Also, will try to put a link here.
Due to the Waters trade, we’ll cancel our party. But we’ll have another discussion after the free agency picture gets clearer.
Apricot’s Live Draft Tracker
This is an experimental site which live updates the draft and also tells you the top remaining choices as ranked by (1) notable draft experts, (2) draft consensus restricted to players GSW worked out, and (3) the most important source, the DNHQ Draft Tournament voters.
It also calculates how premature (“What a reach!”) or late (“What a steal!”) a draft pick is compared to the rankings of draft experts.
Who’s Left To Draft?
Here is a list of all the remaining players that I have seen mocked to be drafted, in order of average draft position.
If name is underlined, it’s a link to Bart Torvik’s advanced NCAA statistics. If not, it’s because they are either in the G-League or overseas pros.
I also include Kevin O’Connor’s one-liner about them. If you are intrigued, you can go to O’Connor’s full site for a scouting report.
John Hollinger also has his distinct takes on most of these players. I include his comments on the Top 4 players remaining who were expected to go in the first round.
2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament participants are marked.
Skilled shooter with the upside to be a constant presence on the perimeter.
F
KANSAS
Age:
19
Height:
6-8
This is higher than a lot of people have him, but I’m a big fan of what Furphy offers. He has positional size for a combo forward and the mobility to check smaller players on the perimeter, but he also grades out as a plus shooter who can supply some extra athletic pop as a finisher on cuts and in transition.
Furphy is skinny and needs to fill out, but his statistical production was a bit better than that of similar physical archetypes Zaccharie Risacher and Cody Williams (both below) despite coming over from Australia to play for Kansas. While Furphy didn’t shoot often and wasn’t asked to do much off the dribble, he shot 64.2 percent on 2s with a high free-throw rate. From the perimeter, his stats were more ordinary (35.2 percent from 3, 76.5 percent from the line), but he shoots 3s with relatively high volume, and both his shooting form and incoming rep suggest he is capable of better.
Defensively, Furphy had some trouble with quick guards, and physicality sometimes gave him trouble when players could shrug him off with a shoulder to get room for a shot. That should lessen as his body fills out, but he’s always going to be light for this size. That said, he had the length and quick hops to get back into plays to contest or block shots, even when initially beaten. His 11.7 percent rebound rate is pretty impressive for a guy who projects as a three at the next level.
We’re into a new tier here where the projections are more questionable, but of this group, I’d argue Furphy has the most realistic upside to turn into a long-term starter.
Pure playmaker who makes his teammates better and can catch fire as a scorer.
G
MARQUETTE
Age:
23
Height:
6-1
Kolek is already 23, but he’s a left-handed pick-and-roll maestro who averaged 13.5 assists per 100 possessions and shot 55.2 percent on 2s. He’s also a good shooter with his feet set, although his release is slow and he doesn’t seem comfortable launching coming off or around screens; that’s why he only took 6.8 3s per 100 possessions, low volume for a skill-based guard prospect. His high-arcing shot barely rotates in the air but splashes regularly; he’s an 81.9 percent career foul shooter and made 38.8 percent from 3 his final season at Marquette.
Kolek, however, can be prone to turnovers; he’s so focused on jailing the defender in pick-and-roll that he barely seems to notice what’s in front of him. He’s also left-handed and a bit small – listed at 6-3 at Marquette – he measured 6-1 1/4 in socks at the combine. A 27-inch no-step vertical won’t get anyone’s blood pumping either.
Kolek rebounds well for his size and has a solid steal rate, but I think his feet will be challenged at the next level. He projects to be a solid backup, but it’s harder to see starter-level outcomes, and if he’s not good enough to keep the ball in his hands all the time, I’m not sure what his role is.
Versatile big with a guard’s finesse, playmaking vision, and perimeter shot.
#9
F, C
DUKE
Age:
20
Height:
6-11
Filipowski’s case for being a lottery pick doesn’t get enough attention. There are legitimate questions about whether he shoots well enough to be a true stretch big. If he can’t, he profiles as something along the lines of “a more defensively capable Frank Kaminsky,” which is draftable, but not this high. You’re banking on Filipowski refining his perimeter game to the point that it weaponizes his superior ability to dribble and pass for his size.
Filipowski’s shot is going to take some work; He hit 31.4 percent from 3 and 71.8 percent from the line in his two seasons at Duke. Watching him before several of Duke’s games, he had trouble controlling the spin on his shot and preventing his guide hand from affecting his shot’s flight.
That matters, because he’s more of a combo big than a true five at both ends of the court. He doesn’t have the broad shoulders or superior length you’d expect from an interior presence on defense, and while he's a good passer on the block and can score against mismatches, he’s not going to physically overwhelm rival bigs.
Filipowski can have more success just playing in the flow of the game, making the right pass and getting to the rim on his own once he has an advantage. It’s easy to see how even a middling 3-point shot could be a force multiplier for those skills.
Defensively, Filipowski’s ability to defend on the perimeter could make him useful as the type of big four (think Al Horford, Maxi Kleber or Karl-Anthony Towns) who has low-key come back into vogue recently. His tape was eye-popping. He isn't just some "serviceable" switch big; he can embarrass smaller wings who try him one-on-one. A 2.5 percent career steal rate from a 7-footer is awesome, and the Dukies were very comfortable leaving him on an island against guards. In fact, you could build an entire five-minute YouTube montage of guards thinking they were going to cook Filipowski once they got a switch, only to find out in a relatively embarrassing way that they didn’t have any advantage.
Tyler Smith
A versatile frontcourt player with shooting and defensive upside.
John Hollinger:
#23F, C
G LEAGUE IGNITE
Age:
19
Height:
6-9
Smith has some yellow flags that keep him out of my top 20 – he’s not a very instinctive defender, and you want a big man to read things at the end of the floor quicker. Positionally, he seems a bit stuck between four and five. There are parallels to Christian Wood, where Smith’s defense may be suspect enough that teams can’t fit his offense onto the floor. The more positive argument is that he can be a Bobby Portis-type third big who rains buckets while toggling between two frontcourt spots.
Smith has a fairly high ceiling as a stretch big at the offensive end, especially since he companies that with plus athleticism. He’s not a total zero on defense either, hustling end to end and offering secondary rim protection as a shot blocker. His rapid improvement from Overtime Elite to his one year at G League Ignite also speaks well in his favor, especially since Ignite wasn’t exactly a program with which players regularly made giant strides.
Smith mustered 61.6 percent true shooting in the G League as a stretch big despite playing without a real point guard who could make his life easier. He hit 36.0 percent from 3 on solid volume and showed the ability to face up smaller opponents on switches and let it fly from midrange over the top of them. Between his size, left-handedness and Texas roots, there are some Chris Bosh parallels offensively.
Smith needs to hit as an offensive player, though, because the rest isn’t nearly as far along. In particular, he has to up his physicality to survive as an NBA five; a 12.7 percent rebound rate isn’t going to cut it.
A 3-point sharpshooter with deep range and versatile shooting skills.
Bobi Klintman
A versatile two-way wing with the skill set and frame to potentially thrive in the NBA.
Well-rounded two-way player capable of flourishing in any type of system.
A tireless player with the qualities to be an excellent rotation big.
Possesses the size of a forward, the handle of a guard, and the shooting of a throwback center.
Gamer point guard who sets the tone with his defense and provides a spark on offense.
Small guard with an “it” factor about him who impacts every facet of the game.
Former college walk-on who transformed himself into a versatile defensive weapon.
Smooth southpaw who complements his scoring with passing and defensive skills.
Nikola Djurisic
Promising, young shot creator who looks the part but needs his attempts to start going in.
Playmaking forward who could be unleashed by the right personnel and coach.
Versatile offensive role player who goes hard on defense and has the upside to be even more.
Bulky forward who can fill in gaps on offense while providing upside as a defensive stopper.
Juan Nunez
Pure point guard with a knack for making highlight-reel passes.
Ulrich Chomche
A raw center with a massive ceiling who is the youngest prospect in this class.
Trentyn Flowers
Potential walking bucket thanks to his size, fluidity, and athleticism.
Glue guy who improves the flow of the offense anytime he’s on the floor.
Melvin Ajinça
Long-armed lefty shotmaker with a high 3-and-D floor and possibly even more potential.
Shooter who has made a late surge to position himself for a chance in the pros.
Flamethrower shooter who fluidly handles the ball, makes smart decisions, and competes relentlessly on defense
A ready-made versatile guard who can thrive with or without the ball.
Mid-major star with the skills to carve out a role in the NBA.
Quintessential role player who enhances his teammates with 3-and-D skills and flashes higher upside.
Knockdown shooter with the most beautiful floater in the class.
Glue guy who brings winning intangibles to the floor with a well-rounded skill set.
Experienced guard who thrives from the midrange and has the upside to expand his game.
Gifted passer with the defensive versatility to stick in the league.
Game-managing point guard who runs a tight ship while providing versatile defense.
Bronny James
Athletic guard still finding his way as he follows in his father’s legendary footsteps.
Ariel Hukporti
Hustling center with a throwback style that could still work in a backup role in today’s game.
How to watch the Second Round, literally
Round 2: June 27, 1:00 Pacific | ESPN (ESPN’s Seaport District Studios in New York)
It’s honestly a bit old-fashioned to (only) watch this on TV. If you want to be 5-10 minutes ahead of the televised draft, follow Shams Charania on Twitter, so follow this comment section.
So, if you don’t want spoilers, turn off Threads/Twitter and avoid this comment section. Everyone is encouraged to post news here as soon as you have it from a reputable source.
How to watch the Second Round, emotionally
As for when the actual picks start, history has the picks beginning about 10-15 minutes from the TV start time.
Each team has 5 minutes to choose for the 30 first round picks, and 4 minutes for the 30 second round picks. The time of the official pick announcement sometimes seems to be longer than that.
In theory, the NBA made the Second Round a second day not just for ratings, but because teams requested more time to reflect on the first round and try to pull off deals.
In the same vein, second round picks will now have 4 minutes on the clock each (up from 2 minutes). Since this is the first year in this format, it’s not clear how things will unfold.
1:00-2:00. Picks #31 through #45.
Note: The following schedule may change completely if the Warriors pull off a trade of draft picks. Trades happen every year, and GSW has been public about wanting to trade their picks. However, I would think that unless GSW got a no-brainer offer, they would have trades prearranged, contingent on certain players falling to their pick. This would mean the trade would be finalized right after “their” pick is announced. There is a small chance GSW could trade UP, but it seems unlikely given their difficulties with the Two Timeline approach.
2:00-2:30. Picks #46 through #51. Start eyeballing the draft board to see who’s left for GSW to pick.
2:20-2:40 or so. The Warriors #52 draft pick.
2:40. Be angry. You could have drafted better.
Furiously google about the new guy, or pray for a trade.
Be angry that your favorite sleeper pick fell to another team.
Post in the comments or on social media “Joe Lacob refuses to compete for a title”, “DUBS INCOMPETENT LOL” or other Eeyore stuff.
Etc.
Roundup of Mock Draft Picks
Quick roundup of many respected draft analyst’s mock drafts for GSW at #52. Keep in mind that it is super hard to predict picks this late in the draft, and it should be taken as an indicator of their view of general team needs.
Krysten Peek, Yahoo: Cam Spencer
Cam Spencer, G
Ht./Wt.: 6-4, 205 pounds | Class: Senior | UConn
Spencer wasn’t great at the combine and got a little lost during the 5-on-5 scrimmages, but his body of work at UConn speaks for itself. He is an ultra competitor who can eventually be that glue guy on a team.
Sam Vecenie, The Athletic: Kevin McCullar
#52 Kevin McCullar
Apricot says: McCullar is an interesting case. He didn't end up in the Tourney because (1) he wasn't quite in the Top 50 of BPM/PRPG, (2) he wasn't reported to work out with GSW, (3) early on he was mocked for the bottom of the first round.
He isn't a great 3P shooter and his 33.9% 3P is new this year. 75.6% FT career says maybe it's not a fluke. He has a rep as a good defender, and his DPM is good (very positive until this year (+3.8 career, but dip to +2.3 last year).
So... I would be surprised to have him fall to #52, and I'd be a little surprised for GSW to pursue him.
SI.com: Jalen Bridges
53. Golden State Warriors (via MIL): Jalen Bridges (Baylor)
Our guy, the winner of the 2024 DNHQ Draft Tournament. See link for complete scouting reports
Givony & Woo, ESPN: KJ Simpson
52. Golden State Warriors (via Bucks)
KJ Simpson, PG, Colorado | Age: 21.8
I know at least one DNHQer who will love this pick. I find these guys are pretty off at predicting what actually happens, but they have a valuable different perspective.
Eric Apricot, DNHQ: Cam Spencer (and Antonio Reeves)
I returned to my finalist pool of Antonio Reeves, Cam Spencer and Quinten Post. I personally consider Reeves the best pick.
But in previous mock drafts, I saw that of these three, Cam Spencer got the most attention as a priority free agent signing from other teams. So I game theory-ed it and…
I drafted Cam Spencer at #52.
Let’s move over to a new thread. I did a superficial scout of Waters over here: https://open.substack.com/pub/dubnation/p/meet-lindy-waters-iii-the-newest
Reminder: Draft spoilers are ENCOURAGED in this thread.
(Replies to pinned comments will be deleted.)