GSW draft pick mock selected by Apricot; plus the winner of the DNHQ Draft Tourney
The draft is coming this Wed and Thurs
Overall results and how we chose the field at 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament. Past Draft Tourneys archived here.
The Winner of Our Draft Tournament
The winner of our FIFTH annual DNHQ Draft Tournament, where Dub Nation gets to vote on whom the Warriors should draft via head to head showdowns, is…
N'Faly Dante 46%
Jalen Bridges 53% WINNER
Thanks to all the voters and the many thoughtful commenters along the way. No matter what happens, on this journey I have become attached to quite a few of these prospects and will be keeping an eye on their professional basketball careers. I wish the same for you.
All the past votes and how we chose the field at 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament, along with scouting reports for all the prospects.
Last chance to vote at void’s Big Board Vote Site
Super commenter void has made (again) a web app where you can record your Big Board for our limited pool of “Might Fall To #52” Tourney participants.
I particularly like this site, because you can put your money where your mouth is. So when you start bragging about how all your draft picks were better than the dumb Warriors pick, people can check. For instance, you can look at all my draft picks from since 2021, from brilliant to horribly misguided.
void’s DNHQ Big Board Vote Site
Predicting the Warriors Draft Pick, Try #1
I usually try not to editorialize about the Tourney prospects until after the vote, but in this piece I’ll explain how I actually chose in a group mock draft.
Host of Locked On NBA Big Board and respected draft analyst MavsDraft included me in a group mock draft and I was assigned to make GSW’s pick at #52.
By the time I got to choose, 8 of the players in our original Draft Tourney field had already been taken.
28 Hunter Sallis
30 Baylor Scheierman
35 Jonathan Mogbo
38 Isaiah Crawford
41 Jalen Bridges
43 K J Simpson
46 Dillon Jones
50 Jamir Watkins
Anton Watson
Antonio Reeves
Cam Spencer
Coleman Hawkins
Dylan Disu
Jaedon LeDee
Jaylin Williams
N Faly Dante
Payton Sandfort
Quinten Post
Reece Beekman
Tristen Newton
Zyon Pullin
The GSW coaches have said repeatedly that the last few seasons, Steph was the only real offensive threat. So they want either another threat, or some shooting to space the floor to improve the current threats (like Kuminga/Wiggins; or Klay in motion offense). Yes, I understand the GSW also needs point-of-attack defense and general athleticism and rim protection.
The best volume 3PT shooters on this list are Antonio Reeves (45%) and Cam Spencer (44%). The best accuracy bigs who are volume 3PT shooters are Quinten Post (43%) and Coleman Hawkins (37%). GSW has already had Hawkins and Reeves in for workouts, so they were realistic and serious candidates to be drafted.
All these guys are in the 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament and there are links there to scouting reports and video. Here are my thumbnail scouting reports.
The dream of Hawkins is that he is a stretch 4 with creative passing and playmaking with reasonable defense who has untapped potential limited in college by a finally-healed injury. The bad scenario would be he’s an undersized big, whose shot doesn’t translate, who is permanently injured.
The dream of Spencer is that he’s a deadeye shooter who hustles nonstop and Podziemskis himself into a rotation role as another connective shooter. The bad scenario is that he’s too short to guard wings and too slow to guard guards and when his shot isn’t falling, he’s useless.
The dream of Reeves is that he’s a spark plug scorer who can create off the dribble, make creative finishes, and light it up from three; that he was held back by playing a role on a stacked disorganized Kentucky team full of NBA first rounders and still managed to be THE leading scorer (he was #2 the previous year); he played off-ball a lot at UK but in his previous school he was successful at creating on-ball. The bad scenario is that he’s bad Jordan Poole who’s a black hole on offense and a matador on defense.
The dream of Quinten Post is that he’s a legit shot blocking 7-0 big on defense and an automatic shooting stretch 5 on offense like Brook Lopez. The bad scenario is that he’s too slow to be played on defense and his shot is too slow to get off in the pros.
In the end, I had to choose one of these exciting prospects. In addition to generic shooting needs, GSW also needs big man shot blocking or at least paint intimidation. Coleman Hawkins is listed at 6-10 and has been worked out by GSW this year and even last year, and he possesses a certain divisive It Factor. His good plays are great and creative, his turnovers are head-slappingly… well… Warriors.
So… I drafted Coleman Hawkins.
Mock Draft Try #2
A few hours later, I had to re-do my selection.
The Mock Draft had been meant to finish well before the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline on May 29, but due to other people’s life messiness, it had dragged on so that I was making my decision midday of the actual deadline day.
So as it turned out, Coleman Hawkins withdrew from the draft to return to college. I had to pick again.
I returned to my finalist pool of Antonio Reeves, Cam Spencer and Quinten Post. I personally consider Reeves the best pick.
But in previous mock drafts, I saw that of these three, Cam Spencer got the most attention as a priority free agent signing from other teams. So I game theory-ed it and…
I drafted Cam Spencer at #52.
I figured I could get Reeves and Post as the two priority undrafted free agent signings I was allowed, so…
I listed Antonio Reeves as Priority undrafted free agent #1.
In the end, Antonio Reeves ended up being the highest priority undrafted free agent for other teams (5 teams) tied with Bronny James and just ahead of DNHQ Draft Tourney mate Tristen Newton.
So it may be that I played myself and over-game-theoried, and perhaps should have just taken Antonio Reeves for the pick anyway.
And for the second priority undrafted free agent…
As I prepared to list Quinten Post second, I got word that GSW had invited Utah’s Branden Carlson for a workout on May 30.
This guy had not been on my radar at all. He did not make the field of the 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament because (1) he was ranked #71 in BPM in the nation, which is very good but that was just outside my arbitrary cutoff of #50; and (2) absolutely no one has mocked him to be selected in the draft.
The dream of Branden Carlson is that he’s a shot-blocking 7-0 big guy who’s a stretch 5 with some athleticism.
Quick detour to compare the two Stretch Centers
It’s natural to compare Carlson and Post. Statistically, Post is a little bit better at defensive rebounding and blocking, though they are both above average. Post has better steal rate and assist rate. Post also has a worse turnover rate, possibly due to the higher assist rate.
Post shot a career 79% FT and 38.8% 3P, while Carlson shot 73% FT and 35.4% 3P in his career. So Post appears to be a slightly better college shooter.
Notably, Carlson shot more as a stretch big in college. Last season, Post shot a dazzling 43.1% but on only 116 3P attempts. Carlson hit 37.9% of 169 3PA. And just going by superficial video highlight vibes, Carlson just looks bouncier than Post, and he seems to be willing to attempt more closely defended threes from farther away.
These differences could be meaningful, but they could also indicate how they were constrained by their coaches. From highlights, it looked to me that the offense at Boston College often ran through Post at the high or low post with numerous off-ball cutters. At Utah, Carlson had a different role: pick-and-popping, cutting to the arc as a release option, and posting up. He was usually meant to score on the play.
In the end I preferred the apparently slightly more athletic player because the main question about these two prospects is whether they are too slow and stiff to defend in the NBA. It also helped that GSW has actually worked out Carlson and has not (yet) worked out Post.
Thus I picked Carlson as the second priority free agent.
You can see my overall ranking of the players in the DNHQ Draft Tourney if you want to have a good laugh at me in a few months.
Anyone have Intel on lefty shooter Ajinca? Made all his shots in the highlight reel.
OK, folks, I have landed in Spain (Madrid).
Just let me know what you want to tell Usman to convince him to return.
like: "TJD ain't all that ... you can take half his minutes" or
"let me introduce you to my sister ... she looks just like Aura Garrido!"