I would definitely trade the #2 and Looney for Holiday, but it would put the Warriors way over the cap for a couple of years when revenue is likely to be down substantially, so I doubt that it happens.
6.1 is good for us. Jrue is a much better player than Looney's ever shown, let alone acknowledging injury issues, and will do much more to help our championship window than Wiseman/Edwards will. If Wiseman or Edwards ever end up being as good as Jrue is now (i.e. in quite a few years from now), then that will be on the upper end of expected outcomes for them (and certainly not their median outcomes). 6.2 is probably fair value given how negative Dray's contract is seen around league now, but we need Dray more than we need Jrue, so doesn't help move our needle. The trades for LMA are just silly.
6.1: tempting, and actually makes sense. Emotionally, I don't want to give up Looney, but strategically Holiday is a more impactful player. (Depends partly on injuries of course.) But NOP is probably happy to have the #2 pick as someone to develop alongside their young core. Wiseman is the obvious positional fit but it would be pretty funny if they ended up with both Ball bros.
I’d be much happier if it were Poole instead of Looney - or if we knew a big was coming on the “compete for a championship” discount. But I’d probably let Looney go for Holiday. A third guard who can do it all - well - will make our dynamic duo much better by providing rest and flexibility. If I knew Looney would stay healthy, I’d say no to the deal but he has a recurrent, poorly defined, cluster of related core ailments with a prognosis very difficult to predict. At his best, though, Looney is big enough and strong enough to take us to a championship.
If we trade our centers are Chriss and Smiley (and some Draymond during small ball). That leaves us pretty undermanned with nothing but a 2nd round pick and vet minimum salaries to find another 5 and depth at wing.
Looking back at drafts since Duncan, the 2002 draft was crap (hopefully this one is better than that.) The 2003 draft was awesome and predictable. But there really doesn’t seem to be an advantage in taking a younger player based on age.
If a player has NBA skills and dominated their level of competition prior to the NBA, they seem to be more likely to succeed in the NBA whether they come out age 18-22. And it doesn’t seem to impact longevity in the league either. HS players don’t seem to last any longer than college seniors when it comes to career length.
Seems like it would be wise to just get the most successful College/International player with the best current NBA skill set without regard to Age/Upside.
Wow, How did people start to evaluate Jrue as Jrue > than Looney + Gay + #2 pick or Jrue + a lottery protected pick > Dray + #2 pick?
That’s an insane evaluation based on one short playoff run that he was outstanding, and a legendary presence on non NBA courts.
Both of those picks have the Warriors giving up positions of need and the #2 best player in the draft for a 3rd guard.
Those trades only make sense if the Warriors know Looney or Green are hurt beyond repair but can still somehow pass a trade physical and the front office recognizes it’s so incapable of evaluating talent that they are guaranteed to bomb the first pick!
And the trades only get worse as the list goes down. The Warriors must have really been smacked down in their discussions with teams about trading down that this is where the rumors have gotten to. OUCH!
6.1 is the only reasonable trade I’ve seen so far that actually works for both teams. Most of the other trades have the Warriors losing Wiggins plus picks, which don’t move the needle much. Holiday is my preferred target for the #2 pick. He could slide into Iggy’s role on D and provide some offense too.
Jrue can play on ball or off ball. He would be by far the best perimeter defender on the team. There isn’t a player on the roster that approximates what he brings to the table, and he compliments every other player in some way. In other words, he makes literally ALL the lineups much better.
Personally I’d rather they get a young building block (or multiple via trades) but Jrue is a strong win now move.
The top lineup would be the closing lineup and it's phenomenal. They'd likely bring Jrue off the bench to lead the second unit, in a combination of Dre and Livingston's roles with Marquesse starting next to Dray (or depending on who they get at center).
So here are the top 7 players I feel good about: Curry, Klay, Jrue, Dray, Wiggins, Paschall and Chriss.
In free agency you'd need to add at least two players to this tier: a wing, and a big. Let's say Aron Baynes and Michael Carter Williams.
Then you have your depth tier, which you aren't necessarily counting on for big minutes but hope develops further: Poole, Lee....another minimum vet...one of Mulder, Bowman or JTA.
So the tradeoff is that you take three potential rotation players: lottery pick, Looney and whoever the TPE guy is and turn that into one: Jrue Holiday. The reason why you do that is to make your closing lineup significantly better, and that Jrue's good enough to raise the level of lineups with replaceable guys. So maybe the guy who takes Looney's spot isn't as good, but with Jrue there the difference doesn't matter.
You wouldn't need to trade anything for Gay. I'm sure the Spurs would be happy to dump that deal, and if they aren't it won't be hard to find another salary to take on and move. There's guys where the Warriors should actually receive assets for taking the contract.
Draymond for garbage? These seem like red herring rumors.
NO please, NO.
I would definitely trade the #2 and Looney for Holiday, but it would put the Warriors way over the cap for a couple of years when revenue is likely to be down substantially, so I doubt that it happens.
6.1 is good for us. Jrue is a much better player than Looney's ever shown, let alone acknowledging injury issues, and will do much more to help our championship window than Wiseman/Edwards will. If Wiseman or Edwards ever end up being as good as Jrue is now (i.e. in quite a few years from now), then that will be on the upper end of expected outcomes for them (and certainly not their median outcomes). 6.2 is probably fair value given how negative Dray's contract is seen around league now, but we need Dray more than we need Jrue, so doesn't help move our needle. The trades for LMA are just silly.
6.1: tempting, and actually makes sense. Emotionally, I don't want to give up Looney, but strategically Holiday is a more impactful player. (Depends partly on injuries of course.) But NOP is probably happy to have the #2 pick as someone to develop alongside their young core. Wiseman is the obvious positional fit but it would be pretty funny if they ended up with both Ball bros.
6.2: No.
6.3: Hell no.
6.3.1: I don't see why either team would do this.
I’d be much happier if it were Poole instead of Looney - or if we knew a big was coming on the “compete for a championship” discount. But I’d probably let Looney go for Holiday. A third guard who can do it all - well - will make our dynamic duo much better by providing rest and flexibility. If I knew Looney would stay healthy, I’d say no to the deal but he has a recurrent, poorly defined, cluster of related core ailments with a prognosis very difficult to predict. At his best, though, Looney is big enough and strong enough to take us to a championship.
If we trade our centers are Chriss and Smiley (and some Draymond during small ball). That leaves us pretty undermanned with nothing but a 2nd round pick and vet minimum salaries to find another 5 and depth at wing.
Loosely based on the numbers:
Looking back at drafts since Duncan, the 2002 draft was crap (hopefully this one is better than that.) The 2003 draft was awesome and predictable. But there really doesn’t seem to be an advantage in taking a younger player based on age.
If a player has NBA skills and dominated their level of competition prior to the NBA, they seem to be more likely to succeed in the NBA whether they come out age 18-22. And it doesn’t seem to impact longevity in the league either. HS players don’t seem to last any longer than college seniors when it comes to career length.
Seems like it would be wise to just get the most successful College/International player with the best current NBA skill set without regard to Age/Upside.
Wow, How did people start to evaluate Jrue as Jrue > than Looney + Gay + #2 pick or Jrue + a lottery protected pick > Dray + #2 pick?
That’s an insane evaluation based on one short playoff run that he was outstanding, and a legendary presence on non NBA courts.
Both of those picks have the Warriors giving up positions of need and the #2 best player in the draft for a 3rd guard.
Those trades only make sense if the Warriors know Looney or Green are hurt beyond repair but can still somehow pass a trade physical and the front office recognizes it’s so incapable of evaluating talent that they are guaranteed to bomb the first pick!
And the trades only get worse as the list goes down. The Warriors must have really been smacked down in their discussions with teams about trading down that this is where the rumors have gotten to. OUCH!
6.1 is the only reasonable trade I’ve seen so far that actually works for both teams. Most of the other trades have the Warriors losing Wiggins plus picks, which don’t move the needle much. Holiday is my preferred target for the #2 pick. He could slide into Iggy’s role on D and provide some offense too.
Umm what exactly are the starting and bench lineups for the W’s that make them better off than if they just kept Gay?
Jrue can play on ball or off ball. He would be by far the best perimeter defender on the team. There isn’t a player on the roster that approximates what he brings to the table, and he compliments every other player in some way. In other words, he makes literally ALL the lineups much better.
Personally I’d rather they get a young building block (or multiple via trades) but Jrue is a strong win now move.
I think you’re right about having a better top lineup, but the bench isn’t NBA caliber, and we haven’t even mentioned what to give up for Gay.
Top lineup: Curry, Klay, Jrue, Wiggins, Dray?
Bench: Poole, Lee, Anderson, Paschall, Chriss, Vet big FA
Vs
Starting lineup: Curry, Klay, Wiggins, Dray, Chriss
Bench: Ball/Edwards, Gay, Paschall, Looney, Chriss, Vet big FA
Putting Wiseman in for the #2 instead of a guard/wing tips the bench heavily big if the W’s keep the pick.
The top lineup would be the closing lineup and it's phenomenal. They'd likely bring Jrue off the bench to lead the second unit, in a combination of Dre and Livingston's roles with Marquesse starting next to Dray (or depending on who they get at center).
So here are the top 7 players I feel good about: Curry, Klay, Jrue, Dray, Wiggins, Paschall and Chriss.
In free agency you'd need to add at least two players to this tier: a wing, and a big. Let's say Aron Baynes and Michael Carter Williams.
Then you have your depth tier, which you aren't necessarily counting on for big minutes but hope develops further: Poole, Lee....another minimum vet...one of Mulder, Bowman or JTA.
So the tradeoff is that you take three potential rotation players: lottery pick, Looney and whoever the TPE guy is and turn that into one: Jrue Holiday. The reason why you do that is to make your closing lineup significantly better, and that Jrue's good enough to raise the level of lineups with replaceable guys. So maybe the guy who takes Looney's spot isn't as good, but with Jrue there the difference doesn't matter.
You wouldn't need to trade anything for Gay. I'm sure the Spurs would be happy to dump that deal, and if they aren't it won't be hard to find another salary to take on and move. There's guys where the Warriors should actually receive assets for taking the contract.