I have very low expectations for the Knicks this series. It was almost always going to be Celtics and Cavs in the ECF. But the Pacers are giving me hope of something surprising happening.
Throwing big guys like Adams or Gobert to the ground at Chase Center is dangerous; it could trigger an earthquake. In Minnesota it's probably safe enough.
Post needs to do this, so Dray doesn't... and especially so Dray sees it and realizes that he needs to be the leader around here and show the young fella that he doesn't need to choose violence
I don't remember us tossing Ty Jerome in the toilet. He was popular at DNHQ, and we signed him as a 2-way so expectations were low. I for one didn't see him reaching the level he has this year but I am happy for him.
Indeed. If memory serves, Ty Jerome had SG size but could make plays well enough to pick up minutes as a third-string PG behind Steph and Poole. I imagine he did take some of Moody’s minutes because Moses was seen as a SG that year, and we also had DDV. But Jerome was a good guy who exceeded expectations, and I thought he was well liked at DNHQ.
I don’t know whether Jerome took minutes from JK but Lamb did, and Lamb was given the last roster spot toward the end of the season. Lamb of course had a personal history from his college days that made him unpopular as well, to the point that some DNHQ posters only referred to him by uniform number.
Maybe the league office decided that maybe they allowed too much physicality in the first round, but they didn't want to disturb series, appear to be influencing outcomes, responding to criticism, and decided to just start fresh with a new application of the rules starting in the second round?
Or maybe it's because it's not Steph getting fouled constantly in the Celtics/Knicks series. Or maybe the Celtics and Knicks pay Adam Silver's protection money, while Joe Lacob doesn't.
It was pretty clear that Moody didn't have a good series (and was a non-factor in game 7) - but he did shoot 35.3% from 3 (some of that was garbage time, I know) and only had 2 turnovers in 146 minutes. He generally played solid defense. He wasn't a disaster.
That being said, I think he is going to be very important this series as the best option to guard Edwards. GP2 should get some of those duties as well, but he's a little small to guard any switches onto Randle/Reid/McDaniels. I also think Moody's length could bother Ant.
I suspect Buddy will get the game 1 start after his game 7 performance, but I'd love to see the 2nd half starting lineup - Steph/Podz/Moody/Butler/Draymond - because I think we need more defense against a team that I feel is much better offensively than Houston.
I'm curious to see how much of Ime's strategy they are going to try. I don't think they have the depth of defensive players to pull it off, so I'd love to see them try and get cooked
They do NOT have an Eason or an Adams coming off their bench. They do have DDV & NAW... who are great bench guard defenders, but not nearly as switchable wing defenders.
-Hield was 9/31 threes in the first 6 games of the series. Although he missed many of the shots, they were open shots that he hit during the regular season. So he was bound to go off some time during the playoffs.
-Buddy was the reason why the Rockets stopped playing zone-to-zone defense. The video highlighted some of Adams's defensive mistakes at the 4:53 and 5:32 marks.
Worth noting that 37.7% is realistically only a little better than 35.3%... don't get me wrong, it's better, but it's not soooo much better that it's THE deciding factor. The Rockets were also far, far and away the best rebounding team in the league.
If you do the math, a Rockets 3PA goes through the net 35.3% of the time, gets rebounded by a Rocket 23.4% of the time, and gets rebounded by their opponent 41.2% of the time, so the offensive rating of a Rockets 3PA is ~135.
A Timberwolves 3PA goes through the net 37.7% of the time, gets rebounded by a Rocket 18.7% of the time, and gets rebounded by their opponent 43.6% of the time, so the offensive rating of a Rockets 3PA is ~138.
One big difference between Buddy and Moses is that Buddy is more capable of pulling the trigger on a three while Moody needs to be really set and really open to launch. Dubs had a ton of possessions in the Rockets series where they kept passing on open (or semi-open, given the Rockets' ability to close out quickly) shots and whittled down the shot clock, resulting in taking an even worse shot than they passed up.
Moses often hesitates before doing anything with the ball. I am reminded of the saying, "he who hesitates is lost." When he reacts quickly, my impression (can't prove it) is that he usually makes a good decision. I wish he would do that more often.
Coach Nick pointed out at the end of the video that the Timberwolves are very different compared to the Rockets in terms of offense, as the Wolves are #5 in three point attempts (39.9) and #4 in three point %age (37.7%) this season. Compare that to the Rockets which are #20 in three point attempts (35.8) and #21 in three point %age (35.3%) in the regular season. So if the Warriors wanna beat the Wolves, they're gonna need help from their shooters, especially Buddy.
Besides Buddy’s shooting, the most amazing thing to me was the physicality, rebounding and defense of Steph and Buddy.
Never in a million years did I ever picture those 2 playing together like that. Steph has always been underrated defensively but yesterday was different. Lost no D Buddy has been much better than expected but last night along with Steph it was really amazing.
OMG... yes. There was one play early where Steph was guarding Jabari Smith on the weak side, and a shot went up. Smith just charged Steph from the 3pt line and slammed into his back, completely knocking him over:
With apologies to Lewis Carroll: "'When call a foul,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’"
Even a slightly more efficient mid range jumper would make Thompson really dangerous. It would open up a lot of driving angles for him where his athleticism already stands out.
I don't really think he needs it tbh, don't think he's anything like Davion Mitchell or Kuminga or whoever else people are bringing up. Jimmy Butler doesn't need a three either.
Davion Mitchell comes to mind but it took him 4 years at age 26 to get there and I'm not convinced that he would be a 40% 3pt shooter on volume shooting as, among other things, he is still a poor free throw shooter. And Mitchell was a better shooter at age 23 than Amen Thompson is now. so, yeah, I agree that it could happen but it doesn't seem likely.
Mitchell had a >40% stroke in his senior year of college... and then returned to being a very mid shooter for the first years of his NBA career. Point being: I wouldn't count on his 40% stroke this year being truly indicative of future performance. We'll see if he can duplicate it for a few years against defenses that actually start respecting his shot.
Interestingly, the 'best' (at least by +/- combo) group (Randle, Reid, McDaniels, DiVincenzo, Edwards) was a group that was negative together in the regular season.
New E1P thread up.
Thank you!
Daniel! Fantastic write-up. I am addicted to Warriors Basketball. Warriors play tonight? I feel good all day. Warriors don’t play tonight? Morose.
84-75 Celtics after 3 quarters
And yet somehow, NYK caught them. 1-0 Knicks.
I don’t like Brunson but I really like him when he is cooking Boston
Not a good sign that Tatum and Brown are a combined 2/15 from 3 and the Knicks are still losing by 14
I have very low expectations for the Knicks this series. It was almost always going to be Celtics and Cavs in the ECF. But the Pacers are giving me hope of something surprising happening.
Apparently the Pacers are 4-1 against the Cavs this season, including game 1. Also 2-1 against Boston. Definitely looking strong in these EC playoffs
And the Knicks just forced OT. So there’s that.
Up 1-0 now
Cavs are banged up right now
Top round 1 outside shot makers: https://old.reddit.com/r/warriors/comments/1kfr3a0/top_outside_shot_makers_for_round_1/
1. Stephen Curry
2. Gary Trent Jr.
3. Fred VanVleet
4. AJ Green
5. Aaron Nesmith
6. Andrew Nembhard
7. Kawhi Leonard
8. Jamal Murray
9. Ty Jerome
10. Donovan Mitchell
11. Buddy Hield
12. Karl-Anthony Towns
13. Naz Reid
14. Dennis Schroder
15. Max Strus
Post versus Gobert should be fun. Post is gonna throw Gobert to the ground like did Adams at some point the series
Throwing big guys like Adams or Gobert to the ground at Chase Center is dangerous; it could trigger an earthquake. In Minnesota it's probably safe enough.
Post needs to do this, so Dray doesn't... and especially so Dray sees it and realizes that he needs to be the leader around here and show the young fella that he doesn't need to choose violence
Welp, it's Monday afternoon, and the Warriors have still beaten the Rockets.
Guess it actually happened.
Praise the Lord
Threezus saves
Celtics in 5
>>>Cleveland Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson has won the 2024-25 NBA Coach of the Year award.<<<
https://bsky.app/profile/shamsbot.bsky.social/post/3lohggb3uhk2i
I remember the days when we were tossing him into the toilet up in here
Him and Ty Jerome lol
We wanted to sign him, but all we could offer was a vet min and, if memory serves, the Cavs offered about double that.
edit: that's wrong, but they offered him above a min. So, we couldn't match it.
I don't remember us tossing Ty Jerome in the toilet. He was popular at DNHQ, and we signed him as a 2-way so expectations were low. I for one didn't see him reaching the level he has this year but I am happy for him.
Maybe I’m remembering incorrectly then, but I remember reading a lot of negative comments about him taking minutes away from JK and Moody.
I think that was at least partly correct. But the big one people were upset about was Anthony Lamb -- for more than one reason.
Indeed. If memory serves, Ty Jerome had SG size but could make plays well enough to pick up minutes as a third-string PG behind Steph and Poole. I imagine he did take some of Moody’s minutes because Moses was seen as a SG that year, and we also had DDV. But Jerome was a good guy who exceeded expectations, and I thought he was well liked at DNHQ.
I don’t know whether Jerome took minutes from JK but Lamb did, and Lamb was given the last roster spot toward the end of the season. Lamb of course had a personal history from his college days that made him unpopular as well, to the point that some DNHQ posters only referred to him by uniform number.
Watching Celtics and Knicks and seems like a lot of soft/touch fouls being called compared to the Warriors/Rockets series so far.
Watching delayed, and it looks like totally different standards. Hope they call Minny for holding Steph too.
Maybe the league office decided that maybe they allowed too much physicality in the first round, but they didn't want to disturb series, appear to be influencing outcomes, responding to criticism, and decided to just start fresh with a new application of the rules starting in the second round?
Or maybe it's because it's not Steph getting fouled constantly in the Celtics/Knicks series. Or maybe the Celtics and Knicks pay Adam Silver's protection money, while Joe Lacob doesn't.
Of course. Gotta protect those delicate wings.
It was pretty clear that Moody didn't have a good series (and was a non-factor in game 7) - but he did shoot 35.3% from 3 (some of that was garbage time, I know) and only had 2 turnovers in 146 minutes. He generally played solid defense. He wasn't a disaster.
That being said, I think he is going to be very important this series as the best option to guard Edwards. GP2 should get some of those duties as well, but he's a little small to guard any switches onto Randle/Reid/McDaniels. I also think Moody's length could bother Ant.
I suspect Buddy will get the game 1 start after his game 7 performance, but I'd love to see the 2nd half starting lineup - Steph/Podz/Moody/Butler/Draymond - because I think we need more defense against a team that I feel is much better offensively than Houston.
I think the question will be: Can Minny park Gobert on Moody?
Can Moody be an effective screener? Can he attack 4-on-3? Can he beat Gobert in space?
Yes, no, hopefully
I'm curious to see how much of Ime's strategy they are going to try. I don't think they have the depth of defensive players to pull it off, so I'd love to see them try and get cooked
They do NOT have an Eason or an Adams coming off their bench. They do have DDV & NAW... who are great bench guard defenders, but not nearly as switchable wing defenders.
Bballbreakdown: How Buddy Hield Blew Up The Rockets In Game 7
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCwYLlnI_ls
-Hield was 9/31 threes in the first 6 games of the series. Although he missed many of the shots, they were open shots that he hit during the regular season. So he was bound to go off some time during the playoffs.
-Buddy was the reason why the Rockets stopped playing zone-to-zone defense. The video highlighted some of Adams's defensive mistakes at the 4:53 and 5:32 marks.
Worth noting that 37.7% is realistically only a little better than 35.3%... don't get me wrong, it's better, but it's not soooo much better that it's THE deciding factor. The Rockets were also far, far and away the best rebounding team in the league.
If you do the math, a Rockets 3PA goes through the net 35.3% of the time, gets rebounded by a Rocket 23.4% of the time, and gets rebounded by their opponent 41.2% of the time, so the offensive rating of a Rockets 3PA is ~135.
A Timberwolves 3PA goes through the net 37.7% of the time, gets rebounded by a Rocket 18.7% of the time, and gets rebounded by their opponent 43.6% of the time, so the offensive rating of a Rockets 3PA is ~138.
One big difference between Buddy and Moses is that Buddy is more capable of pulling the trigger on a three while Moody needs to be really set and really open to launch. Dubs had a ton of possessions in the Rockets series where they kept passing on open (or semi-open, given the Rockets' ability to close out quickly) shots and whittled down the shot clock, resulting in taking an even worse shot than they passed up.
Moses often hesitates before doing anything with the ball. I am reminded of the saying, "he who hesitates is lost." When he reacts quickly, my impression (can't prove it) is that he usually makes a good decision. I wish he would do that more often.
This is what killed him vs rockets imo.
Coach Nick pointed out at the end of the video that the Timberwolves are very different compared to the Rockets in terms of offense, as the Wolves are #5 in three point attempts (39.9) and #4 in three point %age (37.7%) this season. Compare that to the Rockets which are #20 in three point attempts (35.8) and #21 in three point %age (35.3%) in the regular season. So if the Warriors wanna beat the Wolves, they're gonna need help from their shooters, especially Buddy.
All those Houston Rockets moments from this season lost in time, like Dream Shake tears in the rain.
Time to die.
Besides Buddy’s shooting, the most amazing thing to me was the physicality, rebounding and defense of Steph and Buddy.
Never in a million years did I ever picture those 2 playing together like that. Steph has always been underrated defensively but yesterday was different. Lost no D Buddy has been much better than expected but last night along with Steph it was really amazing.
OMG... yes. There was one play early where Steph was guarding Jabari Smith on the weak side, and a shot went up. Smith just charged Steph from the 3pt line and slammed into his back, completely knocking him over:
https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=116&GameID=0042400157&Season=2024-25&flag=1&title=Looney%20REBOUND%20(Off%3A0%20Def%3A1)
I think that really showed Steph what kind of game it was going to be, and he @#$#@%ing showed up and showed out on the boards. #boardmangetspaid
How the refs could have missed that call is surprising. Smith used Steph like a bowling pin to knock down Butler as well
Not to mention Adams literally tossing Moody to the ground. I don't even know what a foul is anymore.
With apologies to Lewis Carroll: "'When call a foul,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’"
I missed the first three quarters live, so I'm watching the game now.
If Thompson learns to shoot a 3, good luck guarding him. He's terrifying.
Even a slightly more efficient mid range jumper would make Thompson really dangerous. It would open up a lot of driving angles for him where his athleticism already stands out.
This has been said about many, many players... only a select few actually learn to shoot a 3. So it can be done, but it's not a likely outcome.
I don't really think he needs it tbh, don't think he's anything like Davion Mitchell or Kuminga or whoever else people are bringing up. Jimmy Butler doesn't need a three either.
Usually those type of players learn much later in their careers when their athleticism has declined, if at all
Davion Mitchell comes to mind but it took him 4 years at age 26 to get there and I'm not convinced that he would be a 40% 3pt shooter on volume shooting as, among other things, he is still a poor free throw shooter. And Mitchell was a better shooter at age 23 than Amen Thompson is now. so, yeah, I agree that it could happen but it doesn't seem likely.
Mitchell had a >40% stroke in his senior year of college... and then returned to being a very mid shooter for the first years of his NBA career. Point being: I wouldn't count on his 40% stroke this year being truly indicative of future performance. We'll see if he can duplicate it for a few years against defenses that actually start respecting his shot.
Thought I'd take a look at the most common combos for the Wolves in the Lakers series.
Gobert, Randle, McDaniels, Edwards, Conley (61 minutes, +13)
Randle, Reid, Alexander-Walker, DiVincenzo, Edwards (27 minutes, -14)
Randle, Reid, McDaniels, DiVincenzo, Edwards (22 minutes, +27)
Gobert, Reid, Alexander-Walker-DiVincenzo, Edwards (16 minutes, +10)
Gobert, Randle, McDaniels, DiVincenzo, Edwards (15 minutes, -19)
Gobert, Reid, McDaniels, DiVincenzo, Edwards (13 minutes, 0)
Randle, Reid, McDaniels, Alexander-Walker, Conley (10 minutes, +14)
Interestingly, the 'best' (at least by +/- combo) group (Randle, Reid, McDaniels, DiVincenzo, Edwards) was a group that was negative together in the regular season.