Generously seems like there are 3-5 NBA players/yr from draft position 26+, meaning that if one only has one pick, and a late 1st rounder at that, the expected value is to hit every 7-11 picks. Add in a couple of high second round picks and maybe the expected value is to hit every 6-9 years. I’d say at worst Bob is above average.
Aug 4, 2022·edited Aug 4, 2022Liked by Eric Apricot
The McCaw situation was a huge lose-lose. What a waste. I'm surprised that the Cavs didn't get investigated/disciplined for their role in that one, as it seems like they were just in it to hurt the Ws.
Bell is a waste of a different kind -- a promising young athlete who didn't seem to have the head/character for the game. Actually, maybe they're not so dissimilar. It's too bad; I still think he could play and contribute under different circumstances.
Jones was what he was: a project who didn't really pan out for the Ws but eventually made himself into an NBA player. Good for him.
In retrospect, the Warriors FO has drafted pretty well. It's almost like Bob Myers knows what he's doing.
Looking at the lists of players below our picks, the conclusion I draw is that picking late in the first/or in the second round is worse than a crap shoot. It’s a miracle that we ever got a decent player with these draws. To expect, nay demand, better outcomes is to ignore the reality that the quality difference drop off from the top picks to the middle picks to the later picks is a fall off a huge cliff, a bounce off the edge ala Homer Simpson, and then a vastly longer plunge into a rocky swirling tidal surge crowded with starving sharks. In other words: blood everywhere.
Do the UDFAs count? For instance 2016 had VanVleet as a UDFA (not to mention other guys who are obviously better than Jones like Caruso, DFS, GP2, etc).
Well analyzed. The Brogdon and Dillon Brooks missed opportunities really hurt but hindsight is 20-20 and I'm sure I wouldn't have had any more chance at identifying those guys as the FO. The only thing I'll say is looking at those I wonder if the FO was just a smidge too conservative in those years in not trying to duplicate Steph and Klay's roles. Is there an extent to which we under-prioritized quality guards at that time? I do see that since then we've gotten Poole and Moody, and second rounders but maybe a couple years earlier the FO was looking for more depth at say center or wings like McCaw? (By the way my beef with McCaw and Bell was seemingly not improving. Good starts are good starts, but some keep improving and some don't really. #PooleToGLeague )
Wednesday morning mental gymnastics. Pick a six-man core group for your team using 2 players from 3 separate groups of three. It's one thing to pick the player you would lose from each group in isolation. But you have to consider the makeup of the 6-man group you have remaining.
Group 1: Steph, Klay, Dray
Group 2: Wiggins, Looney, Poole
Gtoup 3: Wiseman, JK, Moody
You're welcome. haha
ps. everyone is under contract for the same number of years, so contracts or salary cap won't be a part of this exercise.
Best 6-man group with the best reasoning/response gets a cookie.
I think pretty much all of these ratings are spot-on with my perceptions, with the exception of Damian Jones whom I would probably bump up to a solid C. Sure, his most impactful minutes at this point in his career were with other teams than the Warriors, but I think that speaks to the separate question of how good is the FO at determining which players to keep year-to-year as opposed to how well they drafted, which seems to be the specific focus of this series. Since Damian Jones has shown himself to be a useful rotation center with a little bit of value over the last couple of years, I think that deserves a C grade relative to where he was drafted. Even if most of his development didn't come with us, I think he has shown himself to be a pretty decent player for a #30 pick. I think DJ is different from McCaw in this way because Pat did NOT become a better player after his Warriors tenure.
I would love to see a continuation (or expansion?) of this series that looks to compare Warriors drafting under Myers to all other teams in the league during the same time period, as opposed to comparing the Warriors drafts to the drafts of other dynasties in the last several decades. It would be cool to gauge how well Bob and this FO has done against their direct contemporaries using some kind of system to equalize draft value so that you could make some rudimentary measurements. Maybe something like this already exists? Without looking closely, I would be willing to bet that Bob is in the upper echelon of getting good value out of the draft when we normalize for draft position.
It feels like the common thread here is that the Warriors often drafted guys who were talented enough to play in the NBA, and certainly more talented than their draft position - they just didn't develop them very well. Given the amount we've got invested in JFK, JW, and MM, let's hope that our focus on development coaches has turned this weakness into a strength.
One final thought: given the near apocalyptic commentary about the Warriors salary cap issues (for example, I just listened to the Ringer podcast about the Warriors offseason, and they didn't talk about DDV or JMG at all - just about Draymond's future contract extension), can you imagine the choices they would have had to make if they did end up with Brogdon, etc.?
I agree with the assessment as well, they were all nice picks given the drafting position, other than Jacobs.
For McCaw, it seems like a case where Iguodala's mentorship backfired. As you mentioned, he quickly proclaimed McCaw was going to be his successor. Knowing Andre, he probably hyped up to McCaw how much money he was going to get, and that he should strive to get what he deserves. I remember in an interview McCaw said he wanted to be the best basketball player in the world. Now, most NBA players may need to initially have that mentality to get where they are, I would expect at some point the goal becomes more realistic depending on your trajectory, like become an Iguodala or Klay.
In the end McCaw took a kind of unprecedented risk that didn't work out well for either him or the team, so I think it's ok to be irritated still, though at this point of course there isn't the feeling like "wow I wish we still had McCaw"
On vaca, so this rough from memory. From 2013-2019, a 7 year window, if you added up all of the Warriors picks (not including Bell/McCaw beacause those picks were purchase) and got an average number, the Warriors ended up with the 37th pick for 7 years straight. Now, this was done assigning pick values using Tankathons pick value system, which is comparable to most pick value systems out there. Thus, it is a weighted system. Now mind you, this isn't 2 picks each draft. Over 7 years, using 'pick value', the Warriors averaged out getting a single player only each year at pick 37.
And out of that 7 years, we got a starting Center who played 104 games last year and who was instrumental in a Championship (let's face it, Looney saved our bacon on multiple occasions) and a young up-and-comer who is everyone's 2023 favorite to win 6th man of the year award (who is a two-way player, by that I mean, regular season AND playoffs).
For Bob Meyers, this is like being on Iron Chef, and instead of a well stocked pantry, you have to dumpster dive a 7/11 for the rest of your ingredients.
Did we miss out on some players. Yeah. Just like 29 others teams missed out on Loon and Poole, both of whom are top 6 rotation guys on a dynastic championship team.
There are certainly some swing-and-misses in this 7 years, and let's not forget Nemanja Nedovic. But Bob has 2 Panda like dingers, home runs hit on balls way out of the strike zone, in this window of time.
For comparison (again from memory) in this same 7 year window, the PHI 76ers averaged out on pick value to the tune of drafting 3rd AND 27th EVERY YEAR for 7 straight years (they had 35 picks in that time frame). Their 2nd player average 10 spots higher than the Warriors single average pick.
Just wanted to point this out, because when we look at the misses, we fail to appreciate the larger view, ie, the pitches we had to swing out vs the other teams in the league.
But awesome article and detail on that pick history. Just did Monterey Bay Aquarium with kids yesterday. Incredible stuff. Wahoo. Have a great Wednesday everyone.
Thomas Bryant was stuck at the end of the Wizards bench because he tore his ACL [I believe it was] so didn't play for big chunks of 2 seasons & just began playing again last season.
And Jacob Evans [and Omari Spellman] were part of the D'Angelo Russell trade to get Wiggins & the 1st round pick that became Kuminga to make the $$ work. GRIII & Alec Burks were traded to Philly to get under the salary cap.
Warriors Dynasty Drafting: Jacob Evans, Jordan Bell, Damian Jones and Patrick McCaw (2022 Update)
Generously seems like there are 3-5 NBA players/yr from draft position 26+, meaning that if one only has one pick, and a late 1st rounder at that, the expected value is to hit every 7-11 picks. Add in a couple of high second round picks and maybe the expected value is to hit every 6-9 years. I’d say at worst Bob is above average.
The McCaw situation was a huge lose-lose. What a waste. I'm surprised that the Cavs didn't get investigated/disciplined for their role in that one, as it seems like they were just in it to hurt the Ws.
Bell is a waste of a different kind -- a promising young athlete who didn't seem to have the head/character for the game. Actually, maybe they're not so dissimilar. It's too bad; I still think he could play and contribute under different circumstances.
Jones was what he was: a project who didn't really pan out for the Ws but eventually made himself into an NBA player. Good for him.
In retrospect, the Warriors FO has drafted pretty well. It's almost like Bob Myers knows what he's doing.
Looking at the lists of players below our picks, the conclusion I draw is that picking late in the first/or in the second round is worse than a crap shoot. It’s a miracle that we ever got a decent player with these draws. To expect, nay demand, better outcomes is to ignore the reality that the quality difference drop off from the top picks to the middle picks to the later picks is a fall off a huge cliff, a bounce off the edge ala Homer Simpson, and then a vastly longer plunge into a rocky swirling tidal surge crowded with starving sharks. In other words: blood everywhere.
[SteveKerr’sdoghouse] would make a mean username
Do the UDFAs count? For instance 2016 had VanVleet as a UDFA (not to mention other guys who are obviously better than Jones like Caruso, DFS, GP2, etc).
Well analyzed. The Brogdon and Dillon Brooks missed opportunities really hurt but hindsight is 20-20 and I'm sure I wouldn't have had any more chance at identifying those guys as the FO. The only thing I'll say is looking at those I wonder if the FO was just a smidge too conservative in those years in not trying to duplicate Steph and Klay's roles. Is there an extent to which we under-prioritized quality guards at that time? I do see that since then we've gotten Poole and Moody, and second rounders but maybe a couple years earlier the FO was looking for more depth at say center or wings like McCaw? (By the way my beef with McCaw and Bell was seemingly not improving. Good starts are good starts, but some keep improving and some don't really. #PooleToGLeague )
Wednesday morning mental gymnastics. Pick a six-man core group for your team using 2 players from 3 separate groups of three. It's one thing to pick the player you would lose from each group in isolation. But you have to consider the makeup of the 6-man group you have remaining.
Group 1: Steph, Klay, Dray
Group 2: Wiggins, Looney, Poole
Gtoup 3: Wiseman, JK, Moody
You're welcome. haha
ps. everyone is under contract for the same number of years, so contracts or salary cap won't be a part of this exercise.
Best 6-man group with the best reasoning/response gets a cookie.
I think pretty much all of these ratings are spot-on with my perceptions, with the exception of Damian Jones whom I would probably bump up to a solid C. Sure, his most impactful minutes at this point in his career were with other teams than the Warriors, but I think that speaks to the separate question of how good is the FO at determining which players to keep year-to-year as opposed to how well they drafted, which seems to be the specific focus of this series. Since Damian Jones has shown himself to be a useful rotation center with a little bit of value over the last couple of years, I think that deserves a C grade relative to where he was drafted. Even if most of his development didn't come with us, I think he has shown himself to be a pretty decent player for a #30 pick. I think DJ is different from McCaw in this way because Pat did NOT become a better player after his Warriors tenure.
I would love to see a continuation (or expansion?) of this series that looks to compare Warriors drafting under Myers to all other teams in the league during the same time period, as opposed to comparing the Warriors drafts to the drafts of other dynasties in the last several decades. It would be cool to gauge how well Bob and this FO has done against their direct contemporaries using some kind of system to equalize draft value so that you could make some rudimentary measurements. Maybe something like this already exists? Without looking closely, I would be willing to bet that Bob is in the upper echelon of getting good value out of the draft when we normalize for draft position.
It feels like the common thread here is that the Warriors often drafted guys who were talented enough to play in the NBA, and certainly more talented than their draft position - they just didn't develop them very well. Given the amount we've got invested in JFK, JW, and MM, let's hope that our focus on development coaches has turned this weakness into a strength.
One final thought: given the near apocalyptic commentary about the Warriors salary cap issues (for example, I just listened to the Ringer podcast about the Warriors offseason, and they didn't talk about DDV or JMG at all - just about Draymond's future contract extension), can you imagine the choices they would have had to make if they did end up with Brogdon, etc.?
Jacob Evans feels like the reason the Warriors don't buy into older high floor/low-ceiling types that can "contribute now" in the draft.
I agree with the assessment as well, they were all nice picks given the drafting position, other than Jacobs.
For McCaw, it seems like a case where Iguodala's mentorship backfired. As you mentioned, he quickly proclaimed McCaw was going to be his successor. Knowing Andre, he probably hyped up to McCaw how much money he was going to get, and that he should strive to get what he deserves. I remember in an interview McCaw said he wanted to be the best basketball player in the world. Now, most NBA players may need to initially have that mentality to get where they are, I would expect at some point the goal becomes more realistic depending on your trajectory, like become an Iguodala or Klay.
In the end McCaw took a kind of unprecedented risk that didn't work out well for either him or the team, so I think it's ok to be irritated still, though at this point of course there isn't the feeling like "wow I wish we still had McCaw"
On vaca, so this rough from memory. From 2013-2019, a 7 year window, if you added up all of the Warriors picks (not including Bell/McCaw beacause those picks were purchase) and got an average number, the Warriors ended up with the 37th pick for 7 years straight. Now, this was done assigning pick values using Tankathons pick value system, which is comparable to most pick value systems out there. Thus, it is a weighted system. Now mind you, this isn't 2 picks each draft. Over 7 years, using 'pick value', the Warriors averaged out getting a single player only each year at pick 37.
And out of that 7 years, we got a starting Center who played 104 games last year and who was instrumental in a Championship (let's face it, Looney saved our bacon on multiple occasions) and a young up-and-comer who is everyone's 2023 favorite to win 6th man of the year award (who is a two-way player, by that I mean, regular season AND playoffs).
For Bob Meyers, this is like being on Iron Chef, and instead of a well stocked pantry, you have to dumpster dive a 7/11 for the rest of your ingredients.
Did we miss out on some players. Yeah. Just like 29 others teams missed out on Loon and Poole, both of whom are top 6 rotation guys on a dynastic championship team.
There are certainly some swing-and-misses in this 7 years, and let's not forget Nemanja Nedovic. But Bob has 2 Panda like dingers, home runs hit on balls way out of the strike zone, in this window of time.
For comparison (again from memory) in this same 7 year window, the PHI 76ers averaged out on pick value to the tune of drafting 3rd AND 27th EVERY YEAR for 7 straight years (they had 35 picks in that time frame). Their 2nd player average 10 spots higher than the Warriors single average pick.
Just wanted to point this out, because when we look at the misses, we fail to appreciate the larger view, ie, the pitches we had to swing out vs the other teams in the league.
But awesome article and detail on that pick history. Just did Monterey Bay Aquarium with kids yesterday. Incredible stuff. Wahoo. Have a great Wednesday everyone.
I can't disagree with any of your assessments.
Just 2 minor quibbles:
Thomas Bryant was stuck at the end of the Wizards bench because he tore his ACL [I believe it was] so didn't play for big chunks of 2 seasons & just began playing again last season.
And Jacob Evans [and Omari Spellman] were part of the D'Angelo Russell trade to get Wiggins & the 1st round pick that became Kuminga to make the $$ work. GRIII & Alec Burks were traded to Philly to get under the salary cap.