Re-watching third quarter. Dray may have scored few points but he contributed in more ways than just assisting and screening. On the play where belly has a sweet pass to GP2 under basket, Dray directed GP2 to go for backdoor cut.
Four starters (Steph, Draymond, Wiggins, Looney) combined for only 41 points. If I'd told you last year that four starters including Steph would only get you that AND you'd beat a good team 114-92??? This is a TEAM and Klay and Wiseman are in the back doing pushups.
And JFK & MM are learning the plays with the JV squad… the schedule has been a bit soft, but all signs point to this team being pretty pretty pretty good.
Oubre is a guy whose shaky confidence is clearly evident. He's skilled and athletic but you can see him thinking and worrying. Pretty much the opposite of Miles Bridges who looks like he's eating lunch while draining threes. His confidence (I only watched highlights) seemed to be as high level as his shooting.
His hair gives it away. But, he is a good looking guy and can get babes without even trying. Plus, he's a multimillionaire and set for life. What, me worry?
Feel bad for Oubre to be honest. He's not the smartest player but I don't think he's recovered since his dreadful start from 3 last year, hope he finds the confidence he did when he was with Phoenix/Washington
How many games in do you start considering records to be valid? Meaning that we don't expect a 2-0 team to necessarily have a good season, but a 20-0 team is probably going to do well. 6-1 is pretty good. When does it start to feel truly persuasive?
Normally I would say 20-25 games, but with how easy our schedule has been to start as well as no Klay/Wiseman, it might be a bit longer than that for us.
Still our Point Differential is pretty good but not elite thus far (which is a better barometer than simple win-loss record).
The bigger the sample the more persuasive. 14 games will be roughly twice as persuasive as 7. Etc. We also need to consider variations in strength of schedule, which in the Ws case has been among the easiest in the league.
Also: point differential is *always* a better indicator than W-L%.
Getting nerdy, but for most modeling applications 14 games is 41% (= sqrt(14 / 7)) more persuasive than 7 games. {This might be the first time I've ever been able to contribute semi-intelligently to one of your posts.}
Ha, I guess my avatar's misleading --but then again I answer to "Mom" almost as much as "Dad" in my house. Btw, there are several reasons why sqrt(n) is a good starting point, but not where you'd end up --violations such (a) each game's outcome can be affected by previous outcomes, (b) each competitor/difficultly isn't exchangeable, and (c) GSW's season-long underlying ability (hopefully) continues to increase. And as GSW moves higher above .500, each game tell us less --for instance a single win for a 73-9 team is less informative vs a single win for a 39-33 team. (In other words, at each tip off in 2015-2016, we were pretty sure they'd win, and a win wouldn't make us re-evaluate their ability. Last year, plenty of wins moved the needle.)
I think I read something about the first 20 games of a season being more predictive than the last 20. It probably is more than 7 though because the schedules haven't had a chance to normalize at all, really.
yeah - I really want to see a few more games against some top teams, in particular some teams with good defense. I'm still not entirely trusting our offense.
Where do I order my GPII jersey? I want the one he wore tonight.
That was the most inspiring game this season IMO. The opening 6 minutes or so was tough, but for the rest of the game we were locked in on D, and the offense was just building and building. Felt like each new rotation brought something new and exciting.
GPII out there picking pockets in the open court. Honestly, who does that? It's nuts.
After a couple of GP2 pickpockets, I loved how the Hornets (especially LaMelo and Martin) would just kick it out to someone else to bring the ball up if GP2 was guarding them. Haven't seen a guy terrorize guards bringing the ball up like this since Gus Williams in his early SEA days (and, unfortunately, after he left the Dubs).
-I think the Hornets probably gassed out some down the stretch while the Warriors were fresher but still, that was a dominant defensive performance. Ball was clearly getting frustrated that GP2 was guarding him and when he tried to bring in the pick and roll screen Draymond was guarding him. GP2/Draymond/Iguodala is a really nasty defensive combo. I remember Ball sucked in the first game last year against the Warriors and really turned it on in the rematch, I'm sure he'll study the GP2 film for next time lol.
-Bridges is a monster, predicting an All-Star appearance for him this year.
-Oubre looked very loose and happy before the game, dancing to the music and fucking around with his teammates. Saw him embrace Draymond but not sure he embraced anyone else (might have missed it). Also, dude was absolute trash tonight. I will be very interested to see how he performs in the rematch in a few weeks because he should be pretty motivated after the ass whooping he got. Was sad that the crowd was booing him on every possession, personally. He played hard and was a good soldier imo, but I guess that's the way it goes.
-OPJ at center is an interesting wrinkle. It's probably the correct move given how slow he is but are they going to be able to do that when Wiseman comes back and they give him those minutes?
-GP2 would make First Team All Defense if he played enough minutes. It's like they drafted Davion after all except GP2 has Bruce Brown-esque ability to invert gameplans by playing inside.
-GP2's dunk wasn't the best athletic feat of the game. Some dude was balancing a full-sized ladder on his chin after the first quarter, incredible stuff.
RE: booing. I don't like that stuff unless a guy has really 'earned' it (Westbrook comes to mind). I will say that Oubre, like Bazemore, /chose/ to leave. And so I don't think it's fair to expect that he'll be beloved or even treated super kindly.
But on the whole, I think Oubre was a bad fit with Golden State, so it was better for all that he moved on. I don't hold any ill will toward him and hope he finds his place, but that clearly wasn't here.
Also re GP2 v Mitchell: GP2’s rebounding is to Davion Mitchell’s rebounding as Steph’s shooting is to Andris Biedrins’ shooting.
Meanwhile: to date, Mitchell’s consistently poor FT shooting has translated while his anomalous one-season of great three-point shooting has not. Who knew?
OPJ at the 5 has some logic to it. He's no pushover physically and he's somewhat slow for a wing. I would bet Kerr is perplexed with what to do with him. You'd think 3 and D, but he doesn't quite fit that role on the Warriors. He and Looney must be the slowest on the team. I don't know if we will see him beyond this season unless there is a sea change in his performance. Apart from the first game, he's been lost.
Wiseman won't be coming back anytime soon. The gleague should be home for awhile until we work out a trade. Charlotte could use a guy like JW with his size and youth. You think they would swap Lamelo for him? lol. I'll even take Bridges.
GP2 is a major acquisition. Steal of the century. He must be a fun guy to play with.
Heavily disagree on OPJ. I think he's shown some real flashes. And he might be the second best shooter on the team behind Steph. But he has had some very nice passes and bailouts of the shot clock as well. I'd take him as a bench piece for as long as he's willing to stay.
Steph, Klay, Draymond, Andre, GP2 could be devastating. Steph, Klay, Wiseman, Draymond, Wiggins/Andre also something to look forward to. Andre/JP/Lee/Bjeli/GP2 a very interesting 2nd team. With rookies, Otto, JTA, Looney in reserve. Shivers!
Also, I thought Looney's defense to start the game was fantastic.
Also, GP2 is creating a good problem, but still a problem which is that if he becomes un-cuttable but a good player gets bought out who is interested in the Warriors (John Wall?), what do the Warriors do? But that's a question for another day.
Vet minimum, but I seriously doubt that is going to happen. Wall is a hell of a player and would be interesting in the Warrior mix. His injury history is a huge factor.
I think Wall's ability to penetrate could be really effective on this team to take advantage of the pressure Curry is going to get in the playoffs.
But I hear you. Eric Gordon? Thad Young? Ricky Rubio? Not sure who will be available yet, obviously. Just think a hard decision might be on the horizon.
The team still needs a starting center, we'll see if Wiseman can be that guy but if he can't then what? The team needs players who can pressure the rim, Wiseman and Kuminga can do that in theory but if they aren't ready to play then what?
When you carry so many teenagers on a roster, you are going to have roster flaws if those guys aren't ready to play. If a guy is on the buyout market who fills one of those needs (for example, Wall for rim pressure), what do you do?
Very much so. It's only a matter of time before the Warriors cave in to that need at C. Yesterday's game was a good indication that they don't need the teenagers playing, yet. They are good to go as they are but with a solid C, they are elite.
*Poole needed that Q1. Hopefully gets his confidence back. He finished 0/6 from 3P, but whatever. Honestly though, his defense was the key today. 4 steals. Good contests. He was on court for both huge FG droughts for CHA. He also was fired up today. But you're never, ever getting that 3P foul call. C'mon man. Next step is finding the open guys when he's hot instead of going crazy heat check. You ain't Steph (yet, at least).
*GP2. 3 steals? Are we sure? Could have told me 8 and I would have believed you. He deserves more minutes.
*Damian. Quietly incredibly solid. Even if he did pad his stats with 5 pts and a 3 in garbage time.
*Wiggins. The worst player on the floor in the first half, and still finished with 14.
*Steph. I think the change in sub pattern is throwing off his rhythm a bit. That said, it's great to book these wins when he's not super saiyan Steph.
*Beli/OPJ. I don't know how we can't get them more 3PA. They're both making them at high rates, but they're each only taking 1-2 per game. Need to run some plays for them like the split action with OPJ last game. There were some interesting OPJ at the 5 lineups in this game.
*Dray. The Dray/GP2 combo must be terrifying for the opposing offense. Solid game. Not spectacular, but good moments.
His defense was great. But he still needs to be more aggressive and because of it he was part of the beginning turnover extravaganza. He also picked up a tech and continues to miss his FTs, going 1/3. Don't get me wrong, all part of the Dray experience, but I'm starting to really worry about the Dray/Loon combo on offense.
WOAH I just got home from seeing Dune (fan of the book? You'll love the movie) and WHAT HAPPENED HERE???? Jordan Poole done LOST HIS MIND. Got some scrolling down to do ...
Honestly it would be pretty awesome if the Heat, Jazz, and Ws end up the three best teams at the end of the season. They all have a similar feel - deep fast-paced two-way teams that aren't too top heavy and where the sum is greater than the parts.
Klay looks skinnier from what I remember from 2019. Do you guys see the same? Not sure if it is intentional but probably better to be bit skinnier if you are working back from leg injuries.
Young Glove's dunk over Oubre #1 on NBA Top 10 plays today!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBKWyTr8OVk&ab_channel=NBA
Re-watching third quarter. Dray may have scored few points but he contributed in more ways than just assisting and screening. On the play where belly has a sweet pass to GP2 under basket, Dray directed GP2 to go for backdoor cut.
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=460&GameID=0022100117&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=Payton%20II%205%27%20Cutting%20Layup%20Shot%20(8%20PTS)%20(Bjelica%202%20AST)
Four starters (Steph, Draymond, Wiggins, Looney) combined for only 41 points. If I'd told you last year that four starters including Steph would only get you that AND you'd beat a good team 114-92??? This is a TEAM and Klay and Wiseman are in the back doing pushups.
And JFK & MM are learning the plays with the JV squad… the schedule has been a bit soft, but all signs point to this team being pretty pretty pretty good.
Going to put on my sabrina hat for a second...
Yoni
@Yoni_T
·
3h
Oubre felt some kind of way with the idea of coming off the bench for future HOF Klay Thompson and now is coming of the bench for Terry Rozier lol
:insert skull emoji here:
Oubre is a guy whose shaky confidence is clearly evident. He's skilled and athletic but you can see him thinking and worrying. Pretty much the opposite of Miles Bridges who looks like he's eating lunch while draining threes. His confidence (I only watched highlights) seemed to be as high level as his shooting.
His hair gives it away. But, he is a good looking guy and can get babes without even trying. Plus, he's a multimillionaire and set for life. What, me worry?
He scored 25 in his last game!
*2
Feel bad for Oubre to be honest. He's not the smartest player but I don't think he's recovered since his dreadful start from 3 last year, hope he finds the confidence he did when he was with Phoenix/Washington
Yeah I’ve always been a KOJ fan. Want the best for him. Still going to make fun of his “box” comment every time we play him
How many games in do you start considering records to be valid? Meaning that we don't expect a 2-0 team to necessarily have a good season, but a 20-0 team is probably going to do well. 6-1 is pretty good. When does it start to feel truly persuasive?
Normally I would say 20-25 games, but with how easy our schedule has been to start as well as no Klay/Wiseman, it might be a bit longer than that for us.
Still our Point Differential is pretty good but not elite thus far (which is a better barometer than simple win-loss record).
The bigger the sample the more persuasive. 14 games will be roughly twice as persuasive as 7. Etc. We also need to consider variations in strength of schedule, which in the Ws case has been among the easiest in the league.
Also: point differential is *always* a better indicator than W-L%.
Getting nerdy, but for most modeling applications 14 games is 41% (= sqrt(14 / 7)) more persuasive than 7 games. {This might be the first time I've ever been able to contribute semi-intelligently to one of your posts.}
Awesome — I kinda had a gut sense that was wrong, and was hoping a smart stat guy would correct it for me. Thanks!
*or gal
Ha, I guess my avatar's misleading --but then again I answer to "Mom" almost as much as "Dad" in my house. Btw, there are several reasons why sqrt(n) is a good starting point, but not where you'd end up --violations such (a) each game's outcome can be affected by previous outcomes, (b) each competitor/difficultly isn't exchangeable, and (c) GSW's season-long underlying ability (hopefully) continues to increase. And as GSW moves higher above .500, each game tell us less --for instance a single win for a 73-9 team is less informative vs a single win for a 39-33 team. (In other words, at each tip off in 2015-2016, we were pretty sure they'd win, and a win wouldn't make us re-evaluate their ability. Last year, plenty of wins moved the needle.)
https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/research/population-health-methods/item-response-theory
Like the quarter season mark, so I guess like Beli said, 20 games.
I think I read something about the first 20 games of a season being more predictive than the last 20. It probably is more than 7 though because the schedules haven't had a chance to normalize at all, really.
We beat the thunder, lakers lost to thunder, so we get trophy, right? Maybe we get mascot back too?
Eh, they can keep him
yeah - I really want to see a few more games against some top teams, in particular some teams with good defense. I'm still not entirely trusting our offense.
For sure… but aren’t both LA teams supposed to be defensively elite?
Agree with this 100%
Where do I order my GPII jersey? I want the one he wore tonight.
That was the most inspiring game this season IMO. The opening 6 minutes or so was tough, but for the rest of the game we were locked in on D, and the offense was just building and building. Felt like each new rotation brought something new and exciting.
GPII out there picking pockets in the open court. Honestly, who does that? It's nuts.
More than #15!
After a couple of GP2 pickpockets, I loved how the Hornets (especially LaMelo and Martin) would just kick it out to someone else to bring the ball up if GP2 was guarding them. Haven't seen a guy terrorize guards bringing the ball up like this since Gus Williams in his early SEA days (and, unfortunately, after he left the Dubs).
Went to the game:
-I think the Hornets probably gassed out some down the stretch while the Warriors were fresher but still, that was a dominant defensive performance. Ball was clearly getting frustrated that GP2 was guarding him and when he tried to bring in the pick and roll screen Draymond was guarding him. GP2/Draymond/Iguodala is a really nasty defensive combo. I remember Ball sucked in the first game last year against the Warriors and really turned it on in the rematch, I'm sure he'll study the GP2 film for next time lol.
-Bridges is a monster, predicting an All-Star appearance for him this year.
-Oubre looked very loose and happy before the game, dancing to the music and fucking around with his teammates. Saw him embrace Draymond but not sure he embraced anyone else (might have missed it). Also, dude was absolute trash tonight. I will be very interested to see how he performs in the rematch in a few weeks because he should be pretty motivated after the ass whooping he got. Was sad that the crowd was booing him on every possession, personally. He played hard and was a good soldier imo, but I guess that's the way it goes.
-OPJ at center is an interesting wrinkle. It's probably the correct move given how slow he is but are they going to be able to do that when Wiseman comes back and they give him those minutes?
-GP2 would make First Team All Defense if he played enough minutes. It's like they drafted Davion after all except GP2 has Bruce Brown-esque ability to invert gameplans by playing inside.
-GP2's dunk wasn't the best athletic feat of the game. Some dude was balancing a full-sized ladder on his chin after the first quarter, incredible stuff.
RE: booing. I don't like that stuff unless a guy has really 'earned' it (Westbrook comes to mind). I will say that Oubre, like Bazemore, /chose/ to leave. And so I don't think it's fair to expect that he'll be beloved or even treated super kindly.
But on the whole, I think Oubre was a bad fit with Golden State, so it was better for all that he moved on. I don't hold any ill will toward him and hope he finds his place, but that clearly wasn't here.
Also re GP2 v Mitchell: GP2’s rebounding is to Davion Mitchell’s rebounding as Steph’s shooting is to Andris Biedrins’ shooting.
Meanwhile: to date, Mitchell’s consistently poor FT shooting has translated while his anomalous one-season of great three-point shooting has not. Who knew?
Bob Myers
He wasn’t a popular choice ‘round these parts, either.
OPJ at the 5 has some logic to it. He's no pushover physically and he's somewhat slow for a wing. I would bet Kerr is perplexed with what to do with him. You'd think 3 and D, but he doesn't quite fit that role on the Warriors. He and Looney must be the slowest on the team. I don't know if we will see him beyond this season unless there is a sea change in his performance. Apart from the first game, he's been lost.
Wiseman won't be coming back anytime soon. The gleague should be home for awhile until we work out a trade. Charlotte could use a guy like JW with his size and youth. You think they would swap Lamelo for him? lol. I'll even take Bridges.
GP2 is a major acquisition. Steal of the century. He must be a fun guy to play with.
I think of him in “Durant at the 4 role” as a pretty good fit.
Heavily disagree on OPJ. I think he's shown some real flashes. And he might be the second best shooter on the team behind Steph. But he has had some very nice passes and bailouts of the shot clock as well. I'd take him as a bench piece for as long as he's willing to stay.
Wiseman’s coming back some time soon.
Steph, Klay, Draymond, Andre, GP2 could be devastating. Steph, Klay, Wiseman, Draymond, Wiggins/Andre also something to look forward to. Andre/JP/Lee/Bjeli/GP2 a very interesting 2nd team. With rookies, Otto, JTA, Looney in reserve. Shivers!
Also, I thought Looney's defense to start the game was fantastic.
Also, GP2 is creating a good problem, but still a problem which is that if he becomes un-cuttable but a good player gets bought out who is interested in the Warriors (John Wall?), what do the Warriors do? But that's a question for another day.
Vet minimum, but I seriously doubt that is going to happen. Wall is a hell of a player and would be interesting in the Warrior mix. His injury history is a huge factor.
Give me all 15 guys on our roster over John Wall.
I think Wall's ability to penetrate could be really effective on this team to take advantage of the pressure Curry is going to get in the playoffs.
But I hear you. Eric Gordon? Thad Young? Ricky Rubio? Not sure who will be available yet, obviously. Just think a hard decision might be on the horizon.
Why hard? Our roster is incredible and reinforcements are already built-in.
The team still needs a starting center, we'll see if Wiseman can be that guy but if he can't then what? The team needs players who can pressure the rim, Wiseman and Kuminga can do that in theory but if they aren't ready to play then what?
When you carry so many teenagers on a roster, you are going to have roster flaws if those guys aren't ready to play. If a guy is on the buyout market who fills one of those needs (for example, Wall for rim pressure), what do you do?
Very much so. It's only a matter of time before the Warriors cave in to that need at C. Yesterday's game was a good indication that they don't need the teenagers playing, yet. They are good to go as they are but with a solid C, they are elite.
(I mean, each of the individually. And all of them, lol).
Some thoughts:
*Poole needed that Q1. Hopefully gets his confidence back. He finished 0/6 from 3P, but whatever. Honestly though, his defense was the key today. 4 steals. Good contests. He was on court for both huge FG droughts for CHA. He also was fired up today. But you're never, ever getting that 3P foul call. C'mon man. Next step is finding the open guys when he's hot instead of going crazy heat check. You ain't Steph (yet, at least).
*GP2. 3 steals? Are we sure? Could have told me 8 and I would have believed you. He deserves more minutes.
*Damian. Quietly incredibly solid. Even if he did pad his stats with 5 pts and a 3 in garbage time.
*Wiggins. The worst player on the floor in the first half, and still finished with 14.
*Steph. I think the change in sub pattern is throwing off his rhythm a bit. That said, it's great to book these wins when he's not super saiyan Steph.
*Beli/OPJ. I don't know how we can't get them more 3PA. They're both making them at high rates, but they're each only taking 1-2 per game. Need to run some plays for them like the split action with OPJ last game. There were some interesting OPJ at the 5 lineups in this game.
*Dray. The Dray/GP2 combo must be terrifying for the opposing offense. Solid game. Not spectacular, but good moments.
*JTA. Not his best work.
Damian Lee: If you make me play garbage time, I’m going to abuse the pine riders from the other team and show our rooks how to get it done.
That’s not stat padding. That’s grabbing a teachable moment by the throat and not letting go.
Also, Kuminga, Moody and Downtin all played in the earlier game, so they probably wanted them to just go out there and be bodies.
Yeah. I’d like to see them NOT take threes in garbage time though.
Regarding Steph - Kerr mentioned that he was under weather for last couple of days. I think Dray had a great game.
His defense was great. But he still needs to be more aggressive and because of it he was part of the beginning turnover extravaganza. He also picked up a tech and continues to miss his FTs, going 1/3. Don't get me wrong, all part of the Dray experience, but I'm starting to really worry about the Dray/Loon combo on offense.
WOAH I just got home from seeing Dune (fan of the book? You'll love the movie) and WHAT HAPPENED HERE???? Jordan Poole done LOST HIS MIND. Got some scrolling down to do ...
It was an excellent, faithful adaptation and I'm sure you are not disappointed you saw it. But definitely watch a replay of this one.
GPII happemed
Oh man. Book: A classic. Movie: every shot a work of art.
Agree too.
Have to agree with both
Just like that we're comfortably #3 in point differential.
Honestly it would be pretty awesome if the Heat, Jazz, and Ws end up the three best teams at the end of the season. They all have a similar feel - deep fast-paced two-way teams that aren't too top heavy and where the sum is greater than the parts.
*Warriors, anyone, and anyone.
And when it matters I'd take Steph over Butler or Mitchell.
Only 6 games, but right now the Warriors are the #1 ranked defense in the NBA.
Seven
Yeah. But as Bobbita posted in an earlier comment, we have had a SOS of 25. Still awesome though. I thought we middle of pack,
Also a spaced out schedule, Warriors have had pretty fresh legs so far. But the goal isn't top 1, just top 10. They have some room to fall.
It's a hell of an accomplishment to go up against the #2 offense in this young season and make them look like the Magic or Thunder.
Off topic: Franz Wagner is absolutely beasting. Using his "weak left hand" as well.
Seeing how well 5,6, and 8 are doing makes me optimistic about Kuminga.
(With a side of "he BETTER be good".)
Kuminga just has to outperform 12/13/15, Moody will handle 5/6/8
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FD7uDPu6u-vW4NCj1XV6fKLtV8o=/0x0:4667x3501/920x613/filters:focal(1566x938:2312x1684):format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70090503/usa_today_17089093.0.jpg
This reminds me of the Quinton Patton Nerf Hoop Dunks. GP2 is straight up riding the Tsunami.
Poster.
YASSSSSSS!!!!
Klay looks skinnier from what I remember from 2019. Do you guys see the same? Not sure if it is intentional but probably better to be bit skinnier if you are working back from leg injuries.