Assuming each of our games is a coin flip… our probabilities for record in final 9 games are
5-4: 24.6%
6-3: 16.4%
7-2: 7%
8-1: 1.8%
9-0: 0.2%
(And mirror the records for the losing probabilities)
Say Kings also play at coin flip level, they have cumulatively 25% go 3-6 or worse and we have 25% go 6-3 or better, so about 6.25% we catch them in loss column.
Note: this is just a baseline for Mathematical convenience since I didn’t have a computer in front of me to crunch more realistic numbers. Adjust up and down as you see fit.
I’d argue the 50% assumption is an underestimate for the Warriors and (with Huerter done for the season, and’ “fear” that Monk has a sprained MCL) probably an overestimate for the Kings.
Beyond the health advantage (knocking wood), the Warriors have a significantly easier remaining schedule (24th toughest where the Kings are 5th) and the better net rating (+2.1 to +0.9).
Alas, I’m pretty sure the Kings own the tiebreaker (2-2 head to head, but they have an insurmountable lead in divisional record) so we probably don’t catch them. But weirder things have happened…
And even if we don’t catch them — careful what you wish for, but they’d clearly be a much less daunting #9-10 opponent than the Lakers or Suns.
For now, though, we gotta make sure we stay ahead of the incredibly irritating Rockets and not worry too much about who the Basketball Gods might have awaiting us in the play-ins.
for sure — the above is just a very simple baseline.
I agree that the Kings are likely < 50% win team now. However, the Warriors schedule is going to be tougher than estimated by the record, especially given how annoyingly the Rockets and Mavs have both been hotter than their overall record would suggest, and we have been underperforming expectations.
I was going to post something snarky about you not posting any updates once you reached Northern California, which is famous for one particular agricultural product.
Haven't seen Steph play that loose in ages (behind the back, risky passes, off ball chaos). I think after last game and the emotions he needed to loosen up and play with some Joy again. Also, I think Wiggs thought he had enough, uh, wiggle room, to come into the season out of shape and ramp up in the in RS with the "best starting lineup" carrying him... If so, I hope he learnt his lesson. Glad he is starting to put things together and peak in time for Playoff Wiggs!
A different interpretation of Wiggs was that he said that his fractured (?) rib was going to take 8+ weeks to rehab, and the medical situation with his dad was still unresolved and presumably taking up time and energy.
With tonight's win, Dubs are guaranteed to have a winning road record this year. Big turnaround from last year's 11-30 on the road. Of course, they've sucked at Chase this year after 33-8 last year, so I guess things just even out.
I think the ultimate Jekyll/Hyde in soccer (football) might just be a certain Diego Armando Maradona. Flawed genius of the highest order and in some opinion the best footballer to ever walk the planet. His utter dominance at the 1986 World Cup, his legendary exploits at Napoli, etc. etc.
But with genius came those darkest moments - the ugly red card at the 1982 World Cup against a brilliant Brazilian team, being sent home in disgrace in USA 1994 for doping, the cocaine addictions, the tax problems, and to top it all off dying way too young.
Maradona's greatest goal - his second against England in 86, followed his first in that match and perhaps his most infamous goal, scored by la mano de Dios - the Hand of God. Jekyll and Hyde all in one game!
Digging back 60+ years but some things about Draymond remind me in a general sort of way (not the specifics or underlying causes) of Jimmy Piersall in baseball in the 1950s and '60s. Piersall was an amazing defensive centerfielder, one of the best in the league. Man could he go get a fly ball! He could hit too. He played mostly with the Red Sox and later the Indians.
But he had serious emotional issues that messed him up, more extreme than Draymond. Got in several fistfights with other players (including Billy Martin), once spanked a teammate's 4 year old son (that got him demoted to the minors for awhile), got thrown out of games, got suspended more than once. He did some odd stuff, too: He once came to bat wearing a Beatles wig and playing air guitar on his bat, led cheers for himself in the outfield, and "talked" to Babe Ruth behind the center field monuments at Yankee Stadium. Those last few things sound like fun but he was on the edge of losing his sanity.
Piersall got electroshock therapy but what apparently really helped him was lithium, which was a new therapy at that time. Based on that, I suspect he was bipolar (don't know for sure). He came back and became a 2x All Star, Gold Glover, finished 3rd in hitting one year, as high as 9th in MVP voting one year (top 30 MVP voting 5x). He led the AL in doubles one year. But he still was volatile and sometimes got in trouble, including getting suspended.
Piersall was not a HOFer like Draymond, not close, and no rings. But he was a darn good player. He actually is in the Red Sox HOF. I saw Piersall play a good bit with the Indians in the early '60s, and he was a favorite of mine. He was a very exciting player because he went all out all the time, which probably was related to his emotional issues but it sure payed off on the field. Sound familiar?
He finished up a 17 year MLB career bouncing around from the Senators to the Mets and finally the Angels. He wrote an autobiography, "Fear Strikes Out," that is worth reading. It was made into a movie starring Anthony Perkins as Piersall. You probably can find it on YouTube. He became a broadcaster including for the A's briefly (1972).
Zinadine Zidane? Epic way to lose a world cup final. Possibly my favourite footballer of all time (Le Tissier just pips him for me, as I'm from and support Southampton FC).
I agree with Freddie. McEnroe in my opinion with his behaviour tried to damage his opponents, not himself. Kyrgios is, unfortunately for him, in a worse condition than Dray.
Michael Schumacher has been one of the greatest drivers of F1, but sometimes had his Hyde moments, like Jerez 97. And because of these, as Dray, he was always punished, more than the other drivers.
Nice - Machado is good but does he really have aJekyll/Hyde character - whenever I have seen him he seems pretty Jekyll - And yet to reach Drays all star level. Rasheed Wallace - good one for sure.
CP3! On the Rockets and Clippers, a flopping, whining, insufferable bile-spewing geyser of discontent and unsportsmanship. This year, a sage pillar of wisdom and veteran leadership. An amazing transformation on, um, his part!
Fun random happening at tonight's Kings game- I sat with my despicable Celtics-loving coworker, who happened to bring JTA's brother to the game with him. I may have mentioned on this site how highly I esteem JTA a few times. I almost went the whole game without mentioning it to his brother. I also may have said "Honorary Warrior for Life" more than I planned to. And at higher volume. 👀
CP on why he loves playing w/Steph, Klay, & Dray: "They just know where you're going to be. It's ball movement, it's screens, it's that really smart, cerebral playing. I've never played w/a guy like Dray too, that could pass like me. So it's fun & I enjoy when we get a chance to play together."
If the Kings are without Monk for an extended period (on top of losing Huerter) is it that hard to imagine them closing 3-6 or something, and dropping to #10?
I looked up the French for "dunk" (noun). It's 'dunk'.
The verb 'to dunk' is 'faire un dunk'.
This will soon be changed to 'faire un wembanyam', I'm sure.
This has been your cross-cultural lesson for the day.
Hey we can add a version of that in American English too! "Kuminga throws down the Wemby!"
Warriors have the opportunity to set the high water mark for the season on Sunday and finally get to “6 games above 0.500”… let’s go Dubs
Two games ahead of last season’s pace. Just gotta get in, go 2-0 (or just 1-1 if we can get to #8) and then go 16-12 or better…
Assuming each of our games is a coin flip… our probabilities for record in final 9 games are
5-4: 24.6%
6-3: 16.4%
7-2: 7%
8-1: 1.8%
9-0: 0.2%
(And mirror the records for the losing probabilities)
Say Kings also play at coin flip level, they have cumulatively 25% go 3-6 or worse and we have 25% go 6-3 or better, so about 6.25% we catch them in loss column.
Note: this is just a baseline for Mathematical convenience since I didn’t have a computer in front of me to crunch more realistic numbers. Adjust up and down as you see fit.
I’d argue the 50% assumption is an underestimate for the Warriors and (with Huerter done for the season, and’ “fear” that Monk has a sprained MCL) probably an overestimate for the Kings.
Beyond the health advantage (knocking wood), the Warriors have a significantly easier remaining schedule (24th toughest where the Kings are 5th) and the better net rating (+2.1 to +0.9).
Alas, I’m pretty sure the Kings own the tiebreaker (2-2 head to head, but they have an insurmountable lead in divisional record) so we probably don’t catch them. But weirder things have happened…
And even if we don’t catch them — careful what you wish for, but they’d clearly be a much less daunting #9-10 opponent than the Lakers or Suns.
For now, though, we gotta make sure we stay ahead of the incredibly irritating Rockets and not worry too much about who the Basketball Gods might have awaiting us in the play-ins.
for sure — the above is just a very simple baseline.
I agree that the Kings are likely < 50% win team now. However, the Warriors schedule is going to be tougher than estimated by the record, especially given how annoyingly the Rockets and Mavs have both been hotter than their overall record would suggest, and we have been underperforming expectations.
DAL@HOU is the next game either play… Rockets 11 game streak is impressive, but it’s been some soft teams in there.
Greetings from the Big Ass Road Trip*
In the post game, Chris Paul said Moses Moody is one of his favorite teammates ever.
* New video (Northern CA Redwoods) coming soon.
I was going to post something snarky about you not posting any updates once you reached Northern California, which is famous for one particular agricultural product.
Sons, shmons. I figured you'd gone green.
Ha! I’m already an avid partaker, as is my son, but it’s mostly been about no cell reception.
Haven't seen Steph play that loose in ages (behind the back, risky passes, off ball chaos). I think after last game and the emotions he needed to loosen up and play with some Joy again. Also, I think Wiggs thought he had enough, uh, wiggle room, to come into the season out of shape and ramp up in the in RS with the "best starting lineup" carrying him... If so, I hope he learnt his lesson. Glad he is starting to put things together and peak in time for Playoff Wiggs!
A different interpretation of Wiggs was that he said that his fractured (?) rib was going to take 8+ weeks to rehab, and the medical situation with his dad was still unresolved and presumably taking up time and energy.
Games since kicked chairs: One...
Last 10 games efficiencey landscape (updated today): https://www.instagram.com/kirkgoldsberry/p/C5GbqXwMxL7/
1. Celtics: #1 offense, #15 defense)
2. Knicks: #11 offense, #1 defense
3. Rockets: #2 offense, #7 defense
4. Mavericks: #5 offense, #2 defense
5. Nuggets: #3 offense, #12 defense
...
10. Lakers: #4 offense, #19 defense
...
21. Clippers: #9 offense, #29 defense
...
30. Raptors
Where are. warriors?
Not in top 10.
Thnx
Mavs are now 12-0 with Gafford and Luka in their starting lineup.
What having a good starting center can do.
With tonight's win, Dubs are guaranteed to have a winning road record this year. Big turnaround from last year's 11-30 on the road. Of course, they've sucked at Chase this year after 33-8 last year, so I guess things just even out.
Forget about any big offseason changes … all we gotta do is merge last year’s home Warriors and this year’s road Warriors and we’re a 57-win team! 😊
Careful, could end up with last year's road and this year's home records. And then have players choking the coach and all that again.
Note to Kerr: Do not say anything about putting mustard on passes at practice. And maybe wear a spike collar.
Stupid rich tech bros ruining the home crowd at Chase this season…
My 16 year old and I were having a conversation of other great sports stars who are Jekyll/Hyde like Dray.
in soccer we settled on Luis Suarez from Uruguay - Most Americans will be clueless about hi though.
In tennis: John McEnroe
Any other sports and name???
agree with mike tyson, mcenroe. maybe denis rodman, latrell sprewell, richard sherman, ron artest.
Who could be clueless about the Mike Tyson of soccer?
McEnroe is a great choice that pushes all others from mind.
Maybe Jose Canseco for his inability to take responsibility for his actions?
What a cool topic! My two cents...
I think the ultimate Jekyll/Hyde in soccer (football) might just be a certain Diego Armando Maradona. Flawed genius of the highest order and in some opinion the best footballer to ever walk the planet. His utter dominance at the 1986 World Cup, his legendary exploits at Napoli, etc. etc.
But with genius came those darkest moments - the ugly red card at the 1982 World Cup against a brilliant Brazilian team, being sent home in disgrace in USA 1994 for doping, the cocaine addictions, the tax problems, and to top it all off dying way too young.
Maradona's greatest goal - his second against England in 86, followed his first in that match and perhaps his most infamous goal, scored by la mano de Dios - the Hand of God. Jekyll and Hyde all in one game!
Maradona is certainly a good one too!
Digging back 60+ years but some things about Draymond remind me in a general sort of way (not the specifics or underlying causes) of Jimmy Piersall in baseball in the 1950s and '60s. Piersall was an amazing defensive centerfielder, one of the best in the league. Man could he go get a fly ball! He could hit too. He played mostly with the Red Sox and later the Indians.
But he had serious emotional issues that messed him up, more extreme than Draymond. Got in several fistfights with other players (including Billy Martin), once spanked a teammate's 4 year old son (that got him demoted to the minors for awhile), got thrown out of games, got suspended more than once. He did some odd stuff, too: He once came to bat wearing a Beatles wig and playing air guitar on his bat, led cheers for himself in the outfield, and "talked" to Babe Ruth behind the center field monuments at Yankee Stadium. Those last few things sound like fun but he was on the edge of losing his sanity.
Piersall got electroshock therapy but what apparently really helped him was lithium, which was a new therapy at that time. Based on that, I suspect he was bipolar (don't know for sure). He came back and became a 2x All Star, Gold Glover, finished 3rd in hitting one year, as high as 9th in MVP voting one year (top 30 MVP voting 5x). He led the AL in doubles one year. But he still was volatile and sometimes got in trouble, including getting suspended.
Piersall was not a HOFer like Draymond, not close, and no rings. But he was a darn good player. He actually is in the Red Sox HOF. I saw Piersall play a good bit with the Indians in the early '60s, and he was a favorite of mine. He was a very exciting player because he went all out all the time, which probably was related to his emotional issues but it sure payed off on the field. Sound familiar?
He finished up a 17 year MLB career bouncing around from the Senators to the Mets and finally the Angels. He wrote an autobiography, "Fear Strikes Out," that is worth reading. It was made into a movie starring Anthony Perkins as Piersall. You probably can find it on YouTube. He became a broadcaster including for the A's briefly (1972).
Fascinating. Thank you.
Zinadine Zidane? Epic way to lose a world cup final. Possibly my favourite footballer of all time (Le Tissier just pips him for me, as I'm from and support Southampton FC).
Zinadine (oops) and a special mention for Roy Keane, he wrecked playing careers with grudges (Alf-Inge Haaland 😭)
My autocorrect won't let me spell Zinedine gah!
I agree with Freddie. McEnroe in my opinion with his behaviour tried to damage his opponents, not himself. Kyrgios is, unfortunately for him, in a worse condition than Dray.
Michael Schumacher has been one of the greatest drivers of F1, but sometimes had his Hyde moments, like Jerez 97. And because of these, as Dray, he was always punished, more than the other drivers.
Chris Chelios-NHL
Ndamukong Suh - NFL
Albert Belle- MLB
Nick Kyrgios - ATP
Sergio Garcia - PGA
MLB - Jose Canseco
Suarez - El Pistolero - I've seen him playin' a lot of games.
Rasheed in the NBA and Nick Kyrgios in tennis
Eric Cantona in soccer (but I call it football in Italy), maybe Alex Rodriguez in baseball? Or Manny Machado?
Nice - Machado is good but does he really have aJekyll/Hyde character - whenever I have seen him he seems pretty Jekyll - And yet to reach Drays all star level. Rasheed Wallace - good one for sure.
What a great way to frame it!
CP3! On the Rockets and Clippers, a flopping, whining, insufferable bile-spewing geyser of discontent and unsportsmanship. This year, a sage pillar of wisdom and veteran leadership. An amazing transformation on, um, his part!
Getting older and playing with Steph sure has something to do it.
Mike Tyson?
He came to mind because of the biting right? So Suarez instantly brought him to mind.
That’s definitely a good one
Fun random happening at tonight's Kings game- I sat with my despicable Celtics-loving coworker, who happened to bring JTA's brother to the game with him. I may have mentioned on this site how highly I esteem JTA a few times. I almost went the whole game without mentioning it to his brother. I also may have said "Honorary Warrior for Life" more than I planned to. And at higher volume. 👀
CP on why he loves playing w/Steph, Klay, & Dray: "They just know where you're going to be. It's ball movement, it's screens, it's that really smart, cerebral playing. I've never played w/a guy like Dray too, that could pass like me. So it's fun & I enjoy when we get a chance to play together."
https://twitter.com/nbcswarriors/status/1773907809630920784
I think he's learning from Steph, Klay, and Dray how to turn the ball over more :)
I mean, his TOV% is the lowest it's been since 2017-18 and the sixth-best of his career, so he's not a good student at Turnover University.
I did my graduate work there.
I admired your thesis on advances in frittering.
“There’s More Than Apples”
dubnation is a two way street
Brilliant
If the Kings are without Monk for an extended period (on top of losing Huerter) is it that hard to imagine them closing 3-6 or something, and dropping to #10?
Or the Suns go 2-6.
I’m estimating they go;
15% 5-3
50% 4-4
25% 3-5
10% 2-6
We’d have to go 7-2 to catch them even if they go 2-6 though to beat them by one in the loss column.
I’m only giving us a 10% chance of 7-2 though.
10% times 10% == 100% though, right?
XD
Lol, yep, though to be sure, I would prefer they drop to 11th or 12th,,,
That would be so Kangz.
No… not at all
Kings upcoming schedule:
3/31- vs. Jazz
4/2- vs. Clippers
4/4- @ Knicks
4/5- @ Celtics
4/7- @ Nets
4/9- @ Thunder
4/11- vs. Pels
4/12- vs. Suns
4/14- vs. Blazers
Hey, how about this nickname for TJD: Traycer Fire
Trayce Jackson 5
Mavs beat the Kings 107-103
Barnes with a missed shot and a turnover in crunch time. Ouch.
And worse, gakked on an available 2nd three point attempt after the first rebound bounced right to him.
I remember that HB.
I also remember ''Playoffs Barnes'' and many of his game winners for the teams he played on....