I think Simmons is an interesting player since he has major strengths and glaring weaknesses, and you always have to wonder how much you can amplify and mitigate those by putting a guy alongside Stephen Curry.
Problem is, any plausible way of getting Simmons on the Warriors involves giving up a guy who's already an established fit for a big unknown. So yeah, that's a no.
Best case scenario I can think of is if you view Simmons as a center and think that maybe you can get a bargain-bin Wiggins understudy who's less of a downgrade than Simmons is an upgrade at the center position. Steph+Klay+Dray+Simmons+JTA for example seems like it would be a pretty respectable lineup. Alternatively, seeing him as a younger alternative to Draymond makes sense, but you have to be assuming a pretty harsh decline from Draymond to take a gamble on Simmons.
The biggest reason I'm wary of taking Simmons is that his weaknesses (like FT%) are pretty individual, which means they're not that easy to fix by moving him to a new team. Contrast with Wiggins' perceived weaknesses before coming to the Warriors (efficiency, defense), which were pretty rapidly improved just by changing the situation, demands, and philosophy of the team he plays for.
LOL news of the morning: that weird "James Harden joining the Olympics team" (when he could barely play on that hamstring injury???) story has resolved itself: " while Brooklyn Nets star James Harden had to withdraw because of a hamstring injury". You don't say???
No no no ... not interested. He is not going to make us any better.
I know we are all worried about Curry's prime and all that but ask yourself, where do you see Steph's trajectory. I hope he will age gracefully and towards the twighlight of his career be a spot up shooter - just like Jesus Shuttlesworth (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tr6XsZVb-ZE).
My vision would be for us to build a team that straddles several HOF a'la The Admiral and the Big Fundamental in San Antonio. The Spurs lucked into that period when David was injured and lo and behold, they drafted Timmy. That enabled them to win 5 championships from 99-14; and I always remember how I feared the Spurs those 2 decades, cause they were always dangerous - and in any given year could win it all.
Whilst, we may not get a HOF in the draft like Timmy, I would love for us to build a young core that will staddle the Curry-Klay-Dray (aged 33/31/31) era and the next era - could it be Wiggins-Wiseman-Draft Pick (26/20/?)?
- Maybe Wiggins straddles both eras?
- Is Wiseman an HOF (probably not right now, but would be good if he can get All-Star; he is very raw; or maybe a Tyson Chandler career)
Should we trade our pick for Simmons (aged 24), I'm not so sure. I would much prefer to pick someone who can pick up a scorer. Someone that could be our future started when Klay and Steph come off the bench in their twilight years ... that would be my dream.
Should we trade up for Suggey or J.Green? Or stay put and get Moses and Barnes?
Whatever it is, I do not see Simmons in the picture.
Got to admit though, Trae Young has arrived. That's one that bad MF. Most guys in this league are good but only some are built to win. He might be one of those.
Here's the only issue I see with the Suns winning the title, otherwise I don't mind.
Regardless of how Booker performs, the media is salivating to give CP3 that storybook Finals MVP. As soon as he gets that, just imagine the Curry discourse lol.
Indeed, if CP3 can make it through the playoffs without getting injured, that alone is almost historic enough to merit a Finals MVP. I jest. Sort of. As irritated I get with CP3, I admit he is one of the best guards of his era, and without him the Suns would not have gotten this far. So if the Suns do take it, and he gets that Finals MVP, I would grit my teeth and tip my Warriors cap to him. I'd way rather see Booker get that MVP though.
The Bucks are so dumb. Just a collection of things I noticed:
- Decided to come in with the game-plan of giving unlimited number of floaters to one of the best floater shooters in the league. When they went to a smaller lineup and started switching, Young resorted to bricking 30-35 footers, and the only points he got were at the FT line. He might make those obviously (he is incredible), but those are infinitely better than open floater after floater.
- 55 seconds left, they decide to take a pull up long 2 from Middleton with 43 seconds left on the clock. Though the shot-selection could be better (you were getting whatever you wanted at the rim with Giannis as a roll-man), if you were going to take a pull up 2, why not wait until the end so that they don't get a 2 for 1 opportunity?
- Down 3 with 1 possession left, they passed it to Giannis with 5 seconds left. Needless to say, he was immediately hacked as they were in the bonus.
The Bucks have gotten here despite their idiotic decision-making. Heck, they might go on to win the title.
I know Trae's had an incredible playoff run but I can't help but wonder how lucky he has been to face teams that play the drop exclusively with the Knicks, Sixers, Bucks and potentially the Suns in the Finals.
Don't want to pile on, but beyond the stat sheet, there are intangibles to a player's game that matter. Everyone thought the Warriors long term deal for Poole was nuts because Poole's numbers as a rookie were atrocious. But behind the scenes, one can only assume that the FO saw more in him than we could see on the court. There were several basketball reasons behind the drafting of Wiseman, but don't think that his character and work ethic didn't play a major role in his selection - which, by the way, could impact the team for the next decade or more. We covet stars on other teams, looking for that magic pill, but fail to read the Warning Label: "Taking this player can lead to Flat Earth Theories, Broken Contracts, Clanked Free Throws, hAirballs, Flop Sweats, Lunch with Uncle Dennis, High Blood Pressure Fans and Choking." For those clamoring to trade Dray or Wiggs or Wiseman and a bunch of picks for some magic pill player, please read the warning labels. Steph, Klay, Dray & Loon are Champions, fearless and fierce competitors that don't shrink in the moment. Poole & Wiseman are high character guys with insatiable work ethics who want to be great. JTA & D Lee are guys who will give you everything they've got, anytime you ask. Wiggs is not going to miss a day of work. There is more to a Championship team than a bunch of resumes filled with fat stats and individual accomplishments. The intangibles matter and we just saw these, or the lack thereof, get played out on the biggest stage in the biggest moments. George & Simmons are top 20 players in this league, but I'd take Dray in a Game 7 without a second thought.
At the beginning of the year, in my mind, there were only 3 players worth breaking up the core, in this case sending Green out, and those were Giannis, Embiid and Simmons. If you ever moved off Dray, it would have to be for someone with serious defensive chops. The Simmons/Wiggins trade is just a matter of fit. You need different skills on the court and with our core, it is absolutely necessary that your small forward can knock down shots. In a vacuum, Simmons is a better player. But on the Warriors, Wiggins has greater value because of how his skills mesh with the core and the system. If you swap Simmons for Wiggins, you would have to scrap the Curry-System or at least alter it to take advantage of Simmons skill set. Don't think Curry or the Warriors are interested in doing that.
Plot twist: Simmons is tanking his trade value on purpose so the Sixers will sell low hence saving the Warriors assets. Once he gets here he will magically develop a jump shot and everyone will hate the Warriors again.
Although Simmons is probably the best star who can be reasonably gotten this offseason, the fit with the Warriors is too rough. In the modern NBA, having 2 complete non-threats in Draymond and Simmons is probably a death-knell for most offenses, even if Klay and Steph are 2 of the 3 other guys on the court.
As for Simmons for Draymond, no way. I think we have enough data on the both of them to know they're probably significantly negative value offensive players in the playoffs (this version of Draymond at least), but Draymond is so much better defensively that it's not even a contest. Simmons is a great perimeter defender while Draymond is a very good perimeter defender, great big man defender and the smartest defensive coordinator in the league (while also being one of the 3 most switchable bigs in the league). And he makes his FTs.
One of the best offenses in league history started Bogut, Green, Barnes, Klay, and Curry. Simmons, Green, Wiggins, Klay, Curry would look pretty nice in Kerr’s offense. Passing bigs are the key. Simmons would be just fine in the Bay. The question is where does Oubre want to go and can the teams sweeten the deal to make it a sign and trade for salary purposes? The Warriors need Oubre’s new salary to swing any trades for star players while retaining their roster.
1. That was a different era. The ORTGs right now are astronomically high. Plus, even in those years, our best lineup was the SBDS with Andre instead of Bogut (another guy who could somewhat shoot, especially in clutch moments).
2. Barnes was a good shooter and Green was passable in 14-15 (33%) and genuinely good in 15-16 (38%). Today's Draymond Green is a horrific shooter (28, 28 and 27% for the last 3 years) and Simmons has attempted a handful of 3s in his entire career. Realistically, that's 2 players who will not (and should not) any shot that's not at the rim.
And we're not getting Simmons without giving up either Klay/Draymond/Wiggins (so realistically Wiggins).
Unless we can do a 3-team trade that included Wiseman. But I agree that it'd probably have to be Wigg due to salary (and the fact that Philly has no need for Wiseman because of Embiid).
I think that part about "smartest defensive coordinator in the league" gets overlooked a lot (though not here at HQ). I respect Simmons as a defender but it's hard to think of anyone not named Igoudala who has a BBIQ that's fully comparable to Draymond, especially on the defensive side but really on both sides. Sure, Dray makes bad passes that result in turnovers sometimes but it's not because he doesn't know what he's doing.
I wouldn't use the phrase "significantly negative value offensive players in the playoffs" for Draymond. Yeah, his lack of individual scoring threat is a complicating factor, but there's a ton of evidence that he helps the offense more than he hurts it.
Now, maybe some of that is the system, or the depth chart behind him, but whatever is going on is for sure net positive, offensively
When we're on offense, it's often Dray bringing the ball up, Dray being the safety valve when a ball handler is stuck in a bad spot, Dray setting crucial screens, Dray directing traffic, Dray knowing where and when Steph (or Klay) wants the ball and getting it there. He's at the center of the action. Even if he doesn't score much, how he can be considered a negative on offense is beyond me.
How much of that evidence is confounded by him playing with Steph all the time though? With his scoring limitations, I think you're losing value (at least in a half court) against the top-level teams who are switchable (and don't give up tons of backdoor cuts). Especially considering his offensive game seems to have further receded in the 2 years we haven't been to the playoffs.
I don't know the answer but it's fun to look back at what Suns fans were thinking during the early years. People might see him now and think his early career wasn't filled with growing pains and doubts. Ayton is at the end of year 3 with nearly 200 NBA games under his belt... so if "near future" is next season, then it might be a tad optimistic...
> At times, Ayton also genuinely was lost. Miscommunication between him and his teammates as well as late reactions to the opposing offense multiplied into big problems.
> pessimism that he could ever develop a nuanced understanding of defense in order to excel playing center in the NBA. These same issues plagued him in high school and at the University of Arizona
On the other hand, Wiseman was struggling in EYBL as a high school senior. Only had 3 games at Memphis, one against Oregon where he was alright. Was the #2 pick in a weak draft.
Wiseman being better than Ayton is certainly possible given his age, but I'm not sure it's realistic given their respective track records.
The Suns messed up immensely by picking Ayton over Luka. They would've had a guaranteed dynasty if they had Luka + Booker.
This isn't a missed on Jordan, got another top 5-10 player of all time situation, it's a you missed on Jordan and got a guy who might make 1-2 all-star teams. It was a terrible move (back then and in hindsight).
Heck, Trae, SGA + maybe JJJ all have arguments to go over Ayton in a redraft.
JJJ is probably a more interesting comparison for Wiseman than Ayton is. Don't think Wiseman is near the same caliber of prospect that JJJ was but if Wiseman gets way better at shooting, rim protecting, and defending in space (this one might not be that realistic), if I squinted perhaps I could see a guy who looks like JJJ? They certainly share the same enthusiasm for fouling too much lol. Also they both had meniscus injuries.
Have you been watching Ayton? While watching the last Suns game, I was trying to think which starting center that I would take in front of Ayton: Joker, maybe Adebayo. Couldn't think of another. That's right, I'd rather have Ayton than Embiid.
Injuries, of course. More mobile defensively. Very efficient on moderate volume offense...surprisingly solid mid-range shooter. I think his game would fit way better with the Ws.
I think that Wiseman in 5 years will be better than Ayton is now. I do not think that Wiseman next year will be better than Ayton is now, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he progresses toward that.
But why do you think he will be better? As belilaugh noted, Ayton was a better prospect coming in. His rookie season was better across the board. Ayton actually posted OK, not terribad advanced stats as a rookie. Wiseman seems to be more injury prone.
The only things I could possibly see as helpful for Wiseman is a bit more length and more willingness to shoot the 3. But until JW makes them, I'm not even sure he's a better shooter. Ayton has been the surprise young player of the playoffs along with Trae. Sell me on why Wiseman should progress anywhere close to that. Because I really, really don't see it.
I don't see superstar potential for Wiseman but regarding the shot, they were definitely working on his form over the season and we briefly saw the work in the game where he got injured. When Wiseman started the season he was bringing the ball above his head when he shot, I don't know who taught him to shoot like that but whatever.
By the time he got hurt, he was releasing the ball more in front of his eyes, which makes a lot more sense (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzPAYlfpUPg ). I also remember before the season the Warriors mentioning that Wiseman's guide hand was over the ball rather than on the side of it, so I'm sure they've been working on that.
Shooting is probably Wiseman's quickest path to being playable. 63% from the FT line was not encouraging but I'm hoping that the shooting form change will improve his shot. Who knows.
Maybe. It's really frustrating to me that even in that highlight clip, he's shooting long twos with Steph on the floor. Even if he becomes a great shooter, he really needs to improve his shot selection too.
I misremembered why his college season was cut short. But in his one season in the NBA, he had two injuries causing him to miss games. He's also going to miss this hugely important developmental summer. He missed the preseason last year with COVID. He missed a COVID test and had to miss a game as well.
He needs to prove he can stay healthy and playing, because guys his size are often very injury prone. Look at KP, Embiid. Wings just stay a bit healthier. And if he doesn't play a full season this year, that injury prone label might just be appropriate.
I wouldn't trade either Wiggins or Dray straight up for Simmons. What do we actually gain in either scenario?
If we trade Wiggins, then we end up with some redundancy with him and Dray... might work in short smallball stints -- but how much better is that than Dray at the 5 and JTA at the 4?
If we replace Dray, we get younger, longer, and slightly more interior scoring. Everything else is arguably, at best, equivalent to Dray with some huge question marks... can he (or will he) set good screens for Steph and Klay? Is he actually at the same level as Dray defensively? Simmons is objectively worse when it comes to shooting... the issues we had with Dray not being a threat outside? Yea, it'll be worse. Dray also shot 79% from the line this year... you don't need to take him out because of Hack-a-Dray.
And the improved interior scoring that Simmons would provide? He shot 63% within the restricted area... Dray shot... 63%. Granted, Simmons was able to create for himself more often but that's literally the only area that Simmons can score from. The only other area where Simmons takes a significant number of shots is in the 5-9 ft zone... at 40% EFG. For comparison, Dray was 41% EFG from 3P (not counting any shots from 30+ ft).
Then there's all the intangible stuff... Dray shows up big when it counts.
Draymond brings intensity and leadership we would not get with Simmons. His intensity has a plus and a minus of course; he gets too many Ts and got suspended for too many Ts at the worst time. He pissed off KD by shooting his mouth off in public. All that. But his fire was a big part of our championship teams. I don't think we win that first championship without him.
Oh heck everybody blows it sometimes. Remember 1987 Finals Game 4 when Bird barely missed a clutch shot? And that was Larry Freakin' Bird, nobody was more clutch than Bird.
And he's had epic Finals games, including being the best player on the floor in a G7 of the NBA Finals (as well as the likely awardee of the Finals MVP award if we had won). He was likely the best player in our hardest series in 2018 against the Rockets. He was the 2nd best player in the 2019 WCF against the Blazers. He killed AD in the first play-in game this year.
All in all, Draymond's as clutch as it gets (if a thing such as clutch really exists). He has crazy good impact metrics in the playoffs.
Honestly, the biggest red flags for me are about the Simmons Camp. They refused the team’s shooting coach for him (instead using Ben’s brother!!!), and they want him on ball all the time thus pushing Jimmy Butler out the door (presumably because being on-ball inflates your assists and hides the fact Ben has negative gravity).
"Negative gravity" - that's the perfect term for it. It works okay with Draymond because he can shoot a little, can hit his FTs, and is able to take advantage of Steph's gravity at a level that probably no one else in the NBA could. Seeing Simmons fail has taught me about what makes Draymond valuable, after seeing so much similar criticism of Draymond the last couple years.
And to even extend the comp further, it's not like Draymond's lack of shooting isn't a problem - it for sure is. Just the balance of impact is mitigated. I think we lose sight of the fact that these guys don't have to be perfect at everything, but you cannot be super weak in certain aspects and still thrive unless you have some sort of elite-level ancillery impact.
Dray gets by because he's a WAY better floor general on both offense and D. Simmons is ok enough, but I don't ever get the sense that he's running the show in any way.
Also when we have both Steph and Klay, we have two shooters with massive gravity, Jupiter and Saturn, so Dray has space to operate even if he isn't a good shooter. It still would help a lot if he could shoot like he did a few years ago— remember when he used to go coast to coast and lay 'em in? — but we have two super magnets already.
I found this quote from the parent article interesting: Simmons is one of the very best players at finding his teammates for open looks but not at actually creating them.
I think you're probably right...but they coooould view Sengun as a Domantas/Kevin Love type who could play with another big. If it's at 14, and you think he could be a high potential rotation guy for a couple years and hold (or build) trade value. Not that crazy.
which to take at 7, and which has a better chance of lasting until 14? The couple of draft boards I’ve seen seem to suggest taking Şengün before Moody?
I think Simmons is an interesting player since he has major strengths and glaring weaknesses, and you always have to wonder how much you can amplify and mitigate those by putting a guy alongside Stephen Curry.
Problem is, any plausible way of getting Simmons on the Warriors involves giving up a guy who's already an established fit for a big unknown. So yeah, that's a no.
Best case scenario I can think of is if you view Simmons as a center and think that maybe you can get a bargain-bin Wiggins understudy who's less of a downgrade than Simmons is an upgrade at the center position. Steph+Klay+Dray+Simmons+JTA for example seems like it would be a pretty respectable lineup. Alternatively, seeing him as a younger alternative to Draymond makes sense, but you have to be assuming a pretty harsh decline from Draymond to take a gamble on Simmons.
The biggest reason I'm wary of taking Simmons is that his weaknesses (like FT%) are pretty individual, which means they're not that easy to fix by moving him to a new team. Contrast with Wiggins' perceived weaknesses before coming to the Warriors (efficiency, defense), which were pretty rapidly improved just by changing the situation, demands, and philosophy of the team he plays for.
LOL news of the morning: that weird "James Harden joining the Olympics team" (when he could barely play on that hamstring injury???) story has resolved itself: " while Brooklyn Nets star James Harden had to withdraw because of a hamstring injury". You don't say???
Linky: https://www.espn.com/olympics/basketball/story/_/id/31695035/returning-gold-medalist-kevin-durant-first-olympians-highlight-usa-basketball-roster
No no no ... not interested. He is not going to make us any better.
I know we are all worried about Curry's prime and all that but ask yourself, where do you see Steph's trajectory. I hope he will age gracefully and towards the twighlight of his career be a spot up shooter - just like Jesus Shuttlesworth (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tr6XsZVb-ZE).
My vision would be for us to build a team that straddles several HOF a'la The Admiral and the Big Fundamental in San Antonio. The Spurs lucked into that period when David was injured and lo and behold, they drafted Timmy. That enabled them to win 5 championships from 99-14; and I always remember how I feared the Spurs those 2 decades, cause they were always dangerous - and in any given year could win it all.
Whilst, we may not get a HOF in the draft like Timmy, I would love for us to build a young core that will staddle the Curry-Klay-Dray (aged 33/31/31) era and the next era - could it be Wiggins-Wiseman-Draft Pick (26/20/?)?
- Maybe Wiggins straddles both eras?
- Is Wiseman an HOF (probably not right now, but would be good if he can get All-Star; he is very raw; or maybe a Tyson Chandler career)
Should we trade our pick for Simmons (aged 24), I'm not so sure. I would much prefer to pick someone who can pick up a scorer. Someone that could be our future started when Klay and Steph come off the bench in their twilight years ... that would be my dream.
Should we trade up for Suggey or J.Green? Or stay put and get Moses and Barnes?
Whatever it is, I do not see Simmons in the picture.
My$0.02
Got to admit though, Trae Young has arrived. That's one that bad MF. Most guys in this league are good but only some are built to win. He might be one of those.
Man, screw it I'm rooting for the Suns to win the title
Here's the only issue I see with the Suns winning the title, otherwise I don't mind.
Regardless of how Booker performs, the media is salivating to give CP3 that storybook Finals MVP. As soon as he gets that, just imagine the Curry discourse lol.
I’d give him 50/50 odds of making it through the rest-of the post-season healthy. Booker gets MVP and CP3’s narrative changes to great cheerleader.
Indeed, if CP3 can make it through the playoffs without getting injured, that alone is almost historic enough to merit a Finals MVP. I jest. Sort of. As irritated I get with CP3, I admit he is one of the best guards of his era, and without him the Suns would not have gotten this far. So if the Suns do take it, and he gets that Finals MVP, I would grit my teeth and tip my Warriors cap to him. I'd way rather see Booker get that MVP though.
The Bucks are so dumb. Just a collection of things I noticed:
- Decided to come in with the game-plan of giving unlimited number of floaters to one of the best floater shooters in the league. When they went to a smaller lineup and started switching, Young resorted to bricking 30-35 footers, and the only points he got were at the FT line. He might make those obviously (he is incredible), but those are infinitely better than open floater after floater.
- 55 seconds left, they decide to take a pull up long 2 from Middleton with 43 seconds left on the clock. Though the shot-selection could be better (you were getting whatever you wanted at the rim with Giannis as a roll-man), if you were going to take a pull up 2, why not wait until the end so that they don't get a 2 for 1 opportunity?
- Down 3 with 1 possession left, they passed it to Giannis with 5 seconds left. Needless to say, he was immediately hacked as they were in the bonus.
The Bucks have gotten here despite their idiotic decision-making. Heck, they might go on to win the title.
Also they played Jeff Teague 5 minutes? In 2021? In the ECF?
I know Trae's had an incredible playoff run but I can't help but wonder how lucky he has been to face teams that play the drop exclusively with the Knicks, Sixers, Bucks and potentially the Suns in the Finals.
What would Steph do with that coverage lol?
Don't want to pile on, but beyond the stat sheet, there are intangibles to a player's game that matter. Everyone thought the Warriors long term deal for Poole was nuts because Poole's numbers as a rookie were atrocious. But behind the scenes, one can only assume that the FO saw more in him than we could see on the court. There were several basketball reasons behind the drafting of Wiseman, but don't think that his character and work ethic didn't play a major role in his selection - which, by the way, could impact the team for the next decade or more. We covet stars on other teams, looking for that magic pill, but fail to read the Warning Label: "Taking this player can lead to Flat Earth Theories, Broken Contracts, Clanked Free Throws, hAirballs, Flop Sweats, Lunch with Uncle Dennis, High Blood Pressure Fans and Choking." For those clamoring to trade Dray or Wiggs or Wiseman and a bunch of picks for some magic pill player, please read the warning labels. Steph, Klay, Dray & Loon are Champions, fearless and fierce competitors that don't shrink in the moment. Poole & Wiseman are high character guys with insatiable work ethics who want to be great. JTA & D Lee are guys who will give you everything they've got, anytime you ask. Wiggs is not going to miss a day of work. There is more to a Championship team than a bunch of resumes filled with fat stats and individual accomplishments. The intangibles matter and we just saw these, or the lack thereof, get played out on the biggest stage in the biggest moments. George & Simmons are top 20 players in this league, but I'd take Dray in a Game 7 without a second thought.
Agree with all of this, but would you swap Wigg (and a pick or two) for Simmons? This one has me on the fence.
At the beginning of the year, in my mind, there were only 3 players worth breaking up the core, in this case sending Green out, and those were Giannis, Embiid and Simmons. If you ever moved off Dray, it would have to be for someone with serious defensive chops. The Simmons/Wiggins trade is just a matter of fit. You need different skills on the court and with our core, it is absolutely necessary that your small forward can knock down shots. In a vacuum, Simmons is a better player. But on the Warriors, Wiggins has greater value because of how his skills mesh with the core and the system. If you swap Simmons for Wiggins, you would have to scrap the Curry-System or at least alter it to take advantage of Simmons skill set. Don't think Curry or the Warriors are interested in doing that.
Duby/Daniel, get this man a column.
damn, well said
Agreed. The grass is always greener for NBA fans, unfortunately
Plot twist: Simmons is tanking his trade value on purpose so the Sixers will sell low hence saving the Warriors assets. Once he gets here he will magically develop a jump shot and everyone will hate the Warriors again.
Sounds like he's taking a page from Blake Griffin. Not sure if #lightyears
Although Simmons is probably the best star who can be reasonably gotten this offseason, the fit with the Warriors is too rough. In the modern NBA, having 2 complete non-threats in Draymond and Simmons is probably a death-knell for most offenses, even if Klay and Steph are 2 of the 3 other guys on the court.
As for Simmons for Draymond, no way. I think we have enough data on the both of them to know they're probably significantly negative value offensive players in the playoffs (this version of Draymond at least), but Draymond is so much better defensively that it's not even a contest. Simmons is a great perimeter defender while Draymond is a very good perimeter defender, great big man defender and the smartest defensive coordinator in the league (while also being one of the 3 most switchable bigs in the league). And he makes his FTs.
One of the best offenses in league history started Bogut, Green, Barnes, Klay, and Curry. Simmons, Green, Wiggins, Klay, Curry would look pretty nice in Kerr’s offense. Passing bigs are the key. Simmons would be just fine in the Bay. The question is where does Oubre want to go and can the teams sweeten the deal to make it a sign and trade for salary purposes? The Warriors need Oubre’s new salary to swing any trades for star players while retaining their roster.
A couple of points:
1. That was a different era. The ORTGs right now are astronomically high. Plus, even in those years, our best lineup was the SBDS with Andre instead of Bogut (another guy who could somewhat shoot, especially in clutch moments).
2. Barnes was a good shooter and Green was passable in 14-15 (33%) and genuinely good in 15-16 (38%). Today's Draymond Green is a horrific shooter (28, 28 and 27% for the last 3 years) and Simmons has attempted a handful of 3s in his entire career. Realistically, that's 2 players who will not (and should not) any shot that's not at the rim.
And we're not getting Simmons without giving up either Klay/Draymond/Wiggins (so realistically Wiggins).
Unless we can do a 3-team trade that included Wiseman. But I agree that it'd probably have to be Wigg due to salary (and the fact that Philly has no need for Wiseman because of Embiid).
I think that part about "smartest defensive coordinator in the league" gets overlooked a lot (though not here at HQ). I respect Simmons as a defender but it's hard to think of anyone not named Igoudala who has a BBIQ that's fully comparable to Draymond, especially on the defensive side but really on both sides. Sure, Dray makes bad passes that result in turnovers sometimes but it's not because he doesn't know what he's doing.
I wouldn't use the phrase "significantly negative value offensive players in the playoffs" for Draymond. Yeah, his lack of individual scoring threat is a complicating factor, but there's a ton of evidence that he helps the offense more than he hurts it.
Now, maybe some of that is the system, or the depth chart behind him, but whatever is going on is for sure net positive, offensively
When we're on offense, it's often Dray bringing the ball up, Dray being the safety valve when a ball handler is stuck in a bad spot, Dray setting crucial screens, Dray directing traffic, Dray knowing where and when Steph (or Klay) wants the ball and getting it there. He's at the center of the action. Even if he doesn't score much, how he can be considered a negative on offense is beyond me.
I love Dray, and hope he stays with the W's his whole career. but I wonder what Dray's offensive impact is when Curry and Klay aren't on the court.
I would use that term re Dray.
How much of that evidence is confounded by him playing with Steph all the time though? With his scoring limitations, I think you're losing value (at least in a half court) against the top-level teams who are switchable (and don't give up tons of backdoor cuts). Especially considering his offensive game seems to have further receded in the 2 years we haven't been to the playoffs.
F*CK no to any trade involving Simmons to GSW - unless it's straight up for Paschall.
Is hoping Wiseman becomes close to Ayton in the near future too much to ask?
I don't know the answer but it's fun to look back at what Suns fans were thinking during the early years. People might see him now and think his early career wasn't filled with growing pains and doubts. Ayton is at the end of year 3 with nearly 200 NBA games under his belt... so if "near future" is next season, then it might be a tad optimistic...
https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2019/10/10/20901711/deandre-ayton-phoenix-suns-wrong-pick-doesnt-matter
> Ayton’s problem, per se, is that he’s hard to hide on defense
> Ayton needs to become fundamentally sound enough defensively that he gets into the right position, holds his vertical position and avoid fouls
https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2019/9/6/20852030/best-worst-case-scenarios-deandre-ayton-defense
> At times, Ayton also genuinely was lost. Miscommunication between him and his teammates as well as late reactions to the opposing offense multiplied into big problems.
> pessimism that he could ever develop a nuanced understanding of defense in order to excel playing center in the NBA. These same issues plagued him in high school and at the University of Arizona
https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2018/11/9/18077556/deandre-ayton-could-be-dominant-phoenix-suns-nba
> Ayton has been more of a finesse player than many realize. At Hillcrest Prep, Ayton loved to pick-and-pop. The same thing happened at Arizona
> He’s been more LaMarcus Aldridge than Shaquille O’Neal.
Probably. Ayton was a really good prospect, I'm not sure why there have been so many Wiseman comparisons lately. Ayton put up 17 and 18 against UNC as a 15 year old lol (https://247sports.com/college/north-carolina/Article/When-DeAndre-Ayton-and-UNC-Crossed-Paths-116550970/ ). Had a really good season at Arizona. Was the #1 pick in a loaded top 5.
On the other hand, Wiseman was struggling in EYBL as a high school senior. Only had 3 games at Memphis, one against Oregon where he was alright. Was the #2 pick in a weak draft.
Wiseman being better than Ayton is certainly possible given his age, but I'm not sure it's realistic given their respective track records.
It says a lot that no one has ever said that suns messed up that draft picking Ayton over Luka
The Suns messed up immensely by picking Ayton over Luka. They would've had a guaranteed dynasty if they had Luka + Booker.
This isn't a missed on Jordan, got another top 5-10 player of all time situation, it's a you missed on Jordan and got a guy who might make 1-2 all-star teams. It was a terrible move (back then and in hindsight).
Heck, Trae, SGA + maybe JJJ all have arguments to go over Ayton in a redraft.
JJJ is probably a more interesting comparison for Wiseman than Ayton is. Don't think Wiseman is near the same caliber of prospect that JJJ was but if Wiseman gets way better at shooting, rim protecting, and defending in space (this one might not be that realistic), if I squinted perhaps I could see a guy who looks like JJJ? They certainly share the same enthusiasm for fouling too much lol. Also they both had meniscus injuries.
I gotta say, I don't see how J. Jonah Jameson would help the Warriors right now.
True but at the time Ayton was widely considered the consensus #1 pick so the Suns weren't the only ones who missed that boat.
Because it doesn't need to be said. Imagine Luka & Booker on the same team.
The Suns messed up that draft picking Ayton over Luka
Nah. Personally, I hope and envision him becoming much more than Ayton.
Have you been watching Ayton? While watching the last Suns game, I was trying to think which starting center that I would take in front of Ayton: Joker, maybe Adebayo. Couldn't think of another. That's right, I'd rather have Ayton than Embiid.
What about Townes? Yeah, his D needs work but he has the tools to get there with the right team. Offensively, he is way, way better than Ayton.
Why would you rather have Ayton than Embiid? Lack of injuries?
Injuries, of course. More mobile defensively. Very efficient on moderate volume offense...surprisingly solid mid-range shooter. I think his game would fit way better with the Ws.
Ayton's an elite role player. Embiid's one of the 10 best players in the league (a pretty conservative estimate). It's not particularly close.
Embiid was very nearly MVP level, including scoring 33 pts/36 on .636 TS%. We could find ways to fit in his game. Ayton's done well, but c'mon now.
I'm not saying at his peak, just like next year. If Wiseman next year is as good as Ayton was in his 2nd year, I will be extremely shocked.
I think that Wiseman in 5 years will be better than Ayton is now. I do not think that Wiseman next year will be better than Ayton is now, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he progresses toward that.
But why do you think he will be better? As belilaugh noted, Ayton was a better prospect coming in. His rookie season was better across the board. Ayton actually posted OK, not terribad advanced stats as a rookie. Wiseman seems to be more injury prone.
The only things I could possibly see as helpful for Wiseman is a bit more length and more willingness to shoot the 3. But until JW makes them, I'm not even sure he's a better shooter. Ayton has been the surprise young player of the playoffs along with Trae. Sell me on why Wiseman should progress anywhere close to that. Because I really, really don't see it.
I don't see superstar potential for Wiseman but regarding the shot, they were definitely working on his form over the season and we briefly saw the work in the game where he got injured. When Wiseman started the season he was bringing the ball above his head when he shot, I don't know who taught him to shoot like that but whatever.
By the time he got hurt, he was releasing the ball more in front of his eyes, which makes a lot more sense (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzPAYlfpUPg ). I also remember before the season the Warriors mentioning that Wiseman's guide hand was over the ball rather than on the side of it, so I'm sure they've been working on that.
Shooting is probably Wiseman's quickest path to being playable. 63% from the FT line was not encouraging but I'm hoping that the shooting form change will improve his shot. Who knows.
Maybe. It's really frustrating to me that even in that highlight clip, he's shooting long twos with Steph on the floor. Even if he becomes a great shooter, he really needs to improve his shot selection too.
One injury = more injury prone?
I misremembered why his college season was cut short. But in his one season in the NBA, he had two injuries causing him to miss games. He's also going to miss this hugely important developmental summer. He missed the preseason last year with COVID. He missed a COVID test and had to miss a game as well.
He needs to prove he can stay healthy and playing, because guys his size are often very injury prone. Look at KP, Embiid. Wings just stay a bit healthier. And if he doesn't play a full season this year, that injury prone label might just be appropriate.
Two injuries - the wrist. But that could happen to anybody.
I wouldn't trade either Wiggins or Dray straight up for Simmons. What do we actually gain in either scenario?
If we trade Wiggins, then we end up with some redundancy with him and Dray... might work in short smallball stints -- but how much better is that than Dray at the 5 and JTA at the 4?
If we replace Dray, we get younger, longer, and slightly more interior scoring. Everything else is arguably, at best, equivalent to Dray with some huge question marks... can he (or will he) set good screens for Steph and Klay? Is he actually at the same level as Dray defensively? Simmons is objectively worse when it comes to shooting... the issues we had with Dray not being a threat outside? Yea, it'll be worse. Dray also shot 79% from the line this year... you don't need to take him out because of Hack-a-Dray.
And the improved interior scoring that Simmons would provide? He shot 63% within the restricted area... Dray shot... 63%. Granted, Simmons was able to create for himself more often but that's literally the only area that Simmons can score from. The only other area where Simmons takes a significant number of shots is in the 5-9 ft zone... at 40% EFG. For comparison, Dray was 41% EFG from 3P (not counting any shots from 30+ ft).
Then there's all the intangible stuff... Dray shows up big when it counts.
Draymond brings intensity and leadership we would not get with Simmons. His intensity has a plus and a minus of course; he gets too many Ts and got suspended for too many Ts at the worst time. He pissed off KD by shooting his mouth off in public. All that. But his fire was a big part of our championship teams. I don't think we win that first championship without him.
No way we do
Dray choked on that layup at the end of the last game.
Oh heck everybody blows it sometimes. Remember 1987 Finals Game 4 when Bird barely missed a clutch shot? And that was Larry Freakin' Bird, nobody was more clutch than Bird.
And he's had epic Finals games, including being the best player on the floor in a G7 of the NBA Finals (as well as the likely awardee of the Finals MVP award if we had won). He was likely the best player in our hardest series in 2018 against the Rockets. He was the 2nd best player in the 2019 WCF against the Blazers. He killed AD in the first play-in game this year.
All in all, Draymond's as clutch as it gets (if a thing such as clutch really exists). He has crazy good impact metrics in the playoffs.
Hear hear
Oh good point. Forget everything, trade him.
just saying that "Dray shows up big when it counts" has some holes.
Steph missed both of the last two shots in the Warriors two Finals losses. You gonna argue that makes him unclutch?
#7, #14 and Paschall to the Pistons for the #1 pick. Come on #MotorCity! Pashcall is the next Lebron! ;)
Ha ha that's funny. I could maybe see something like that netting the #5 pick. Maybe.
76ers fans have been doing a really good job indicating the reasons why Simmons is not a good target:
https://www.libertyballers.com/2021/6/23/22545307/sixers-always-had-numerous-problems-ben-simmons-has-always-been-one-philadelphia-76ers-nba
That is a damn brutal but realistic article.
Honestly, the biggest red flags for me are about the Simmons Camp. They refused the team’s shooting coach for him (instead using Ben’s brother!!!), and they want him on ball all the time thus pushing Jimmy Butler out the door (presumably because being on-ball inflates your assists and hides the fact Ben has negative gravity).
"Negative gravity" - that's the perfect term for it. It works okay with Draymond because he can shoot a little, can hit his FTs, and is able to take advantage of Steph's gravity at a level that probably no one else in the NBA could. Seeing Simmons fail has taught me about what makes Draymond valuable, after seeing so much similar criticism of Draymond the last couple years.
And to even extend the comp further, it's not like Draymond's lack of shooting isn't a problem - it for sure is. Just the balance of impact is mitigated. I think we lose sight of the fact that these guys don't have to be perfect at everything, but you cannot be super weak in certain aspects and still thrive unless you have some sort of elite-level ancillery impact.
Dray gets by because he's a WAY better floor general on both offense and D. Simmons is ok enough, but I don't ever get the sense that he's running the show in any way.
Also when we have both Steph and Klay, we have two shooters with massive gravity, Jupiter and Saturn, so Dray has space to operate even if he isn't a good shooter. It still would help a lot if he could shoot like he did a few years ago— remember when he used to go coast to coast and lay 'em in? — but we have two super magnets already.
I found this quote from the parent article interesting: Simmons is one of the very best players at finding his teammates for open looks but not at actually creating them.
Yeah, I was intrigued by that too, though I'm not sure I totally understand what it means.
Our friend Evan Z. with his early prognostications
> Evan Zamir@thecity2
Give me Moody and Sengun. I think that’s the best outcome. Two guys that are young, have high ceilings, and could do stuff we need immediately.
Love it, although the Warriors aren't taking Sengun unless they trade Wiseman.
I think you're probably right...but they coooould view Sengun as a Domantas/Kevin Love type who could play with another big. If it's at 14, and you think he could be a high potential rotation guy for a couple years and hold (or build) trade value. Not that crazy.
Plus, imagine Sengun under the tutelage of Dejan "The Jokic Whisperer" Milojevic.
Great point. I love that idea. Probably the best coach in the world to develop his game.
Kind of solidified me on it. If Sengun is there at 14 he's probably my first choice of realistic guys or Moody if he falls.
I don't think Sengun will be there at 14, but if he is you gotta take him
Note to self / Bob Myers: avoid Sengun and Moody… ;-P
which to take at 7, and which has a better chance of lasting until 14? The couple of draft boards I’ve seen seem to suggest taking Şengün before Moody?
Hollinger in his latest Athletic piece had Sengun (and Barnes) ahead of Green, Suggs, and Kuminga…