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Not going to give full player grades for this game, which I only just got around to watching earlier today, but my impressions:

- The defense early on was getting roasted by cuts and drives. There were a bunch of ones that should not have been that easy, but I couldn't pinpoint why seemingly everyone was getting beat. Sometimes the shots were contested but Denver made all the tough layups.

- Jokic continues to be an absolute joy to watch. One of the most mesmerizingly unique players in the game.

- Steph looked pretty hot early; I was disappointed the rest of the team weren't looking for him more. Felt like he also had a lot more breathing room compared to the last few games. You can just feel the difference between Denver's D and Tor/Ind/LAC.

- Looks like Oubre is gradually learning to play the Warriors offense, though he's still not automatic on setting screens for guys.

- Wiseman looked more controlled as well. Jokic obviously outplayed him but that was expected. But I caught more glimpses of him developing a two man game with Steph, he looked like he belonged on the court, and he struck a good balance of using his jumper when it was available and other approaches when it wasn't.

This team is still a work in progress and you hate to see all the missed layups and defensive mixups. But this is one of those games where, if we had the baseball series runback immediately, I'd feel good about our odds.

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Jan 16, 2021Liked by punk basketball

The NBA is considering adding another two-way slot as a COVID response per Shams. It's a bit pathetic of a COVID response but regardless, isn't this a perfect opportunity to add Spellman? They wouldn't even have to cut Smailagic to do it so they could still cut him if they decided to use the DPE.

Pros:

-Eligible for a two-way since he has four years or fewer of NBA experience, and presumably available since he got waived last week and no one has signed him.

-Can shoot, which this team really needs.

-Plays the 4/5, which is different from the other two-way guys. When Paschall was out, that center rotation was looking really thin.

-Unique skillset among Warrior backup bigs, a position from which shooting could really help relieve the pressure on Curry given how entrenched Green/Wiggins/Oubre are in the other spots.

-Spent half a season in the system and seemed happy at the time.

-Could supplant Smailagic as the "future bench shooting big" and convince the Warriors to take the L and move on.

Cons:

-Every team would have another two-way contract so there would be competition for him, and maybe another team like the Blazers or Nets can promise more playing time opportunities.

-GSW/MIN/NYK all traded him or cut him, only the Warriors know for sure if they were happy or sad to do so.

-Who knows where his fitness/weight is at and how ready he is to play.

The last con is the huge question mark of course, but presumably the Warriors could get some info on that before they'd sign him?

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I would be ok with this. His attitude and energy was infectious last year and his shot was consistent. Not sure where he is mentally after being cut/traded but I was a big Spellman fan fan when he was here.

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Articles seem to say he put on the COVID 50. But maybe he could get back in shape. I liked watching him last year so would be happy to see him back.

Any thoughts here on Kaleb Wesson? He played so few preseason minutes I never got a sense if he was any good.

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author

Meh.

And also, meh to Spellman. He is probably the name floating out there I'd be most interested in, but I'm not sure where we'd find minutes for Spellman if he came back.

IIRC, he wasn't great alongside Paschall - maybe that's different because EP plays a different position/role now?

and a big ol' "meh" to adding a single additional 2-way contract. Games aren't getting cancelled because teams are one guy short.

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Jan 16, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I just realized how overpaid dray will be relative to his production with his contract. Though he's def still getting back into things so I'm open to changing my mind

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"Production"... you mean stats? Puh-lease. This team went from looking like the worst team in the league to batting .500 just by adding him back into the mix. He completely runs the show anytime he's on the court on BOTH ENDs (he's not taking the shots but he has the ball the most). We need one more consistent scorer on the team and we'll be in good shape bc dray does everything else.

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I mean yes but you would expect a $20+m player to at least be able to do that

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There are plenty of $20+m players that ONLY score at an elite level (harden for example) ... is that better?

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Jan 16, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt so far given the COVID and the altitude. Even Wiseman said he was feeling a bit winded yesterday, and it doesn't seem like he had as bad of a case.

The defense follows Draymond's lead just like the offense follows Curry's lead, it's a lot on both of their shoulders. When LeBron got to this point of his career he was able to coast defensively (remember when he took a 2 week vacation midseason?). Curry and Draymond are occasionally probably just going to have to give some games up this season to preserve themselves, and honestly that's fine. If Wiseman develops as a rim protector that will lessen Draymond's defensive load, and if Klay comes back productive that will lessen Curry's offensive load.

But also, I think there are some extremely valuable things Draymond provides that can't be replaced that give him a lot of value. That "coach on the court" shit he does (like when he runs the offense or sniffs out the Raptor OOB play on defense) can't be replicated by a coaching staff. Not to mention I think the culture that he and Curry have created is pretty invaluable, look at what it's brought out of Wiggins, who was universally accepted as a guy who didn't care enough to try defensively. How do you put a dollar value on that?

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He is averaging 4 shots a game so far. He really needs to try for 10 points a game.

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I dont know if we need to put a specific number on it, but at the very least he needs to take the layups that are there.

Like, he pulled an Iguodala the other night when he wrapped a pass around to Wiseman when he probably had a layup (and maybe and1) at the rim.

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There have been number of times where he had dunk or layup but he passed it to Wiseman. I would think that probably be get the young man energized.

I personally won't give up on Dray till he has a bad playoff series.

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Jan 16, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Problem is based on how he looks, him trying to get 10 points would kill the offense. But like I said I'll wait since it's been a long layoff and he's coming back from covid. We'll see how it is at the end of the season

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author

It does feel like him and Iguodala both get the "you don't even need them to score" treatment. And while it's true that you can be good enough to be valuable on the court, Dray's lack of direct scoring punch is definitely a factor. With Steph and Klay - or really any of the recent Warriors teams with high fire power, it's definitely fine. But I agree that it's a bit of a concern.

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Jan 15, 2021Liked by punk basketball

It must be hard to join a new team, learn new plays/roles, operate in a pandemic--- all while being extorted by an ex-girlfriend for $3 million dollars. All of this is certainly playing in to Oubre's comfort level. https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/warriors-kelly-oubre-claims-ex-girlfriend-tried-extort-him-3m

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Actually makes a lot of sense. His mind must be elsewhere and its completely understandable. For someone his age I wouldn't be surprised if he's stressed about the potential defamation more than the money. Really hope it gets settled soon, could be a huge monkey off his back

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I wouldn't think his mind is anywhere else. He's been great on defense where I would expect the lapses to be if that were the case

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I think Wiseman needs to take a page out of Pau Gasol's book of ball security too. Keep that ball in the sky at all times until it's ready to go in the basket! These guys in the NBA just have insanely fast hands and that ball is always prone for theft when you put it on the floor

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Jan 15, 2021Liked by punk basketball

What do y'all think Wiseman might have learned from Jokic last night? I can just imagine Draymond going over the video with him...

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From the LGW youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXQzAZplOsU

Wiseman said: "Man, he got a lot of tricks”

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That elite speed and athleticism isn't everything in the NBA. You need skill too and Jokic has a lot of that.

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Jan 15, 2021Liked by punk basketball

> Wiseman seems to do better when he nails someone with the screen instead of slipping. He never seems open on the slip or ready to catch.

I'm going to start looking for this, because on a couple of his big dunks I definitely remember him setting a quality screen rather than slipping immediately. Good observation.

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author

Not going to say it’s a hard and fast rule but it’s notable how not-open he is on all these rolls.

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Here's how the Warriors stats look so far this season:

Offense:

14 in points scored (111.3)

27 in points in paint (41.3)

11 in fastbreak points (14.6)

24 in offensive efficiency

27 in shooting % (43.9%)

20 in three point % (35.2%)

22 in two point % (50.2%)

28 in off. rebound % (17.6%)

27 in def. rebound % (76.4%)

30 in total rebound % (47.3%)

18 in opponent blocks (5.5)

14 in opponent steals (7.7)

14 in assists (25.2)

17 in turnovers (15.0)

Defense:

25 in points allowed (115.3)

9 in opponent points in paint!!!! (43.5)

24 in opponent fastbreak points (14.6)

15 in defensive efficiency

7 in opponent shooting % !!!!!!!! (44.6%)

23 in opponent three point % (38.3%)

3 in opponent two point % !!!!!!!!!!!!! (48.9%)

5 in blocks!!!!!!!!!! (6.1)

16 in steals (7.5)

6 in opponent assists!!!!!!!!! (22.8)

5 in opponent turnovers!!!!!!!!!!! (16.2)

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Looks promising on defensive end. I am going perimeter defense gets better over time. From eye test, seems like we are rotating and flying out to open 3 pt man much much better than start of the season.

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Since the first two games, here's how it looks:

We're actually 5th in OPP FG% (43.2) and 9th in OPP 3P% (35.3). If we normalize points allowed to per 100 possessions, we're actually 9th (108pts per 100).

Things we are bad at: giving up second chance pts (24th), pts off TOs (23rd), and OPP fastbreak pts (21st). Kind of weird with the latter two since we're very middle-of-the-back in giving up TOs... probably really bad transition defense?

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Jan 15, 2021Liked by punk basketball

The Warriors are pretty much the team people expected them to be at this point. They play pretty good individual defense, poor team defense, lack outside shooting from the starters other than Curry, and Wiseman is a super athletic big man whose basketball skills are a work in progress. Assuming they gel on defense and improve, they are still a fringe playoff team (because let's face it, in a league where 1/2 the teams go to the playoffs, almost every team is a fringe playoff team ... except, of course, the 1994 to 2005 Warriors where by this time of year, the primary excitement came from upcoming draft).

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Yeah sometimes it’s easy to forget we’re still in 12 games in. Prior to the season I thought they would hover around this record for the first half while figuring things out and hopefully make a strong push at the end. Still looks like it’s possible with the flashes we’ve seen so far from multiple guys.

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12 game in and .500. That is better than what I expected.

And an easier schedule coming up till end of the month - (Lakers), Spurs, Knicks, (Jazz), Wolves, Wolves, (Suns), Pistons.

Hoping that by end of the month, we are 11-9 (say we loose Lakers, Jazz, Suns) or atleast 10-10.

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That seems like a good baseline prediction, though the NBA is wild enough that I expect one, maybe two upsets in there: we could lose to the Knicks, for example, or beat the Jazz. Or some players could end up on quarantine protocols and completely throw things for a loop.

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Jan 15, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Looking at the GameFlow.

The starters went -2 in the 1st quarter, and then Bazemore and Looney came in, and in 5:34 of court time, they went -11. In particular, the Curry-Bazemore-Wiggins-Paschall-Looney unit went -8 over the final 2:12 of the 1st. Ouch.

Then in the 3rd quarter, Curry-Bazemore-Lee-Paschall-Looney went -5 in 1:33. Welp.

Our Paschall-at-the-5 bench units of Wanamaker-Mulder/Bazemore-Lee-Wiggins-Paschall went +7 in ~9 minutes of action.

So yeah, our lineup with the most shooters spread throughout had good returns, surprise, surprise. The starters generally played even with the Nuggets, but those Paschall-Looney units got crushed. Kinda seems like Paschall is specifically a smallball 5, maybe he can play next to Wiseman, but I think like we saw last year that Draymond's offense is too ignorable to be able to play next to Paschall, same thing is happening with Looney-Paschall.

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Slater wrote a whole section on the Looney-Paschall problem, and it gets back to my rant the other day in an article: there's a negative synergy happening when we play so many poor shooters at the same time. We have already decided that we are playing Dray (no scoring) and Wiggins (inefficient scoring), it's just not fair to Stephen to stick yet another non shooting threat out there with him.

Not to nitpick Kerr over his handling of what we all knew coming in was a good roster with flaws, but it's starting to feel like he's going to have to make some tough decision with his rotation soon. It's starting to feel more and more silly to keep Oubre in with the starters - but again, Oubre just needs to start climbing back to his career averages and he'll look fantastic. Till then though.... I'd jiggle the handle a bit and bump Oubre to the bench till he rediscovers his shot.

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Oubre last night was 3-8 (37.5%) from three (0-2 on twos) and 5-6 from the line. What do you define as "rediscovering his shot" and how much does he have to do it before he's a starter again?

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Wiggins (inefficient shooting) - 43%/37% vs 44%/38% for Steph. Wiggins is no KD (of course) but Wiggins is okay.

Oubre on the other hand!! But seems like he is starting to hit more 3s (3/7 and 3/8) last two games i.e. 40% Hopefully that continues.

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Steph TS%: .610

Wiggins TS%: .529

One of these players is exceptionally efficient and the the other is well below avg. Especially when factoring volume

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Well TS% has FT component. I was thinking FGs.

Wiggins is ranked 24th for TS% in forwards taking 15 or more FG per game. So you have a point. He is near his TS% high over last five years though. So hopefully it will go up from here once everyone has figured out the system

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I guess at this point I'm still OK with Oubre starting, but 30mpg is definitely too much.

I say give Oubre the first 6 mins of the 1st and 3rd, then let Damion Lee come in. Then keep a short leash on him for the 2nd and 4th quarters.

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To me the issue isn't necessarily how many minutes Oubre us playing its the number of shots he's taking. If he took half as many shots and gave those looks to steph/wiggins/wiseman/pashcall I think his negative impact would be minimal if at all.

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Jan 15, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Our defensive rotations have been so out of whack all season so far. Two players always running at one shooter leaving a wide open shooter or cutter. I think if we shore up on that and our defensive rebounding we'd look way better. It probably would have won this game. And Kerr... don't be afraid to play Wiseman more minutes

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Off today, but the team is doing two consecutive big practices tomorrow and Sunday. I don't know how much of the team's confusion with offensive and defensive rotations can be resolved over the course of a couple of practices, but I do think there are some recurring themes that should be pretty straight forward for the coaching staff to point out.

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I think you can get a lot done in two practices actually. Especially now that they've got an idea what the rotation looks like.

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Yeah the problem is it's happened so much these first 12 games so they've had the opportunity to show the team, but I feel like there hasn't been much improvement

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There haven't been many practices either with the truncated schedule, which has stunted the speed of any improvements.

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Plus, a truncated training camp...which Wiseman missed.

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I feel like this is something that gets fixed more by film than by practice but maybe I'm wrong. Of course added reps would help though

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I think you have to see it on film, then take it to the gym. I’m imagining them out on the court walking through the rotations on defense and offensive sets.

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This! Improvement during the season is hard, and it's especially hard this season due to the compressed schedule and corresponding lack of practice. I am really curious to see what the Warriors look like on Monday. While understanding the Lakers are so much better it might not translate to results, I still hope to see some of these glaring issues ironed out a bit.

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Definitely high altitude effects performance. If you've ever gone from sea level to alpine in a matter of hours, try getting on cross country skis and having a go at it. Even your automobile is not functioning at its optimum. No power. Fact not fiction.

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It seems weird though, because as a skier 5,000 feet doesn’t seem that high to me.

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For most people, it takes at least a couple of days to acclimatize to the altitude. Many pro athletes have mentioned this effect. Probably some adapt easier than others.

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Dray seemed to be most affected by altitude. I would say probably the worse game of the season for him. He seems to have definitely been affected by Covid. Hopefully it is not permanent.

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Jan 15, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Final stats: (repost)

Warriors:

46.9% shooting (38/81 FGs)

11/29 three pointers

17/24 FTs

43 rebounds (5 off.)

29 assists

19 turnovers

9 steals

4 blocks

Nuggets:

45.6% shooting (41/90 FGs)

11/37 three pointers

21/27 FTs

50 rebounds (10 off.)

29 assists

14 turnovers

11 steals

5 blocks

Points in paint:

Warriors: 40

Nuggets: 54

Fastbreak points:

Warriors: 25

Nuggets: 9

Points off turnovers:

Warriors: 20

Nuggets: 17

Bench points:

Warriors: 20

Nuggets: 41

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Jan 15, 2021Liked by punk basketball

OT but don't look now...think I might actually root for the Rockets

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30715054/houston-rockets-come-together-win-first-game-james-harden-trade

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Wow, I like that team lead by Boogie. They could be fun.

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author

Boogie and Wall reunion after playing together in college is pretty cool, and Wood is legit!

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Before the draft, I was looking at RAPTOR stats for centers, and Wood was far and away the best bargain center in the NBA last season—top 5ish performance, minimum salary.

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Jan 15, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Amen about the wraparound passes to Wiseman. I commented on that a game or two ago. The kid can fly high and has wings like a California Condor. Lob it and let him grab it and slam it. Another "WTF" was some of the turnovers. Steph sometimes seems to mentally check out and throw it away or get stripped out of sloppiness. It's puzzling for a great player with a high BBIQ. I realize that's not new but the Hamptons 5 could afford it, and this team can't.

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Jan 15, 2021Liked by punk basketball

> Steph sometimes seems to mentally check out and throw it away or get stripped out of sloppiness.

Steph is being double, triple, and sometimes even quadruple teamed. He gets trapped at the half court line. He is the focal point of the offense and is only 6'3" and has to pass over guys like Jokic on a regular basis. I'm surprised he doesn't have more turnovers.

(That all said; yes he has some reckless passes and occasionally loses focus. The guy is only human).

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The wraparounds are ugly... we're just forcing it because we want to utilize that threat. But part of it is on Wiseman. His spacing and timing are a bit off. It's just like any other pass to a cutter towards the basket. The passer doesn't wait until his teammate is open, he passes it to where he will be open.

Wiseman should be giving himself some space between him and where he wants the lob to be. Instead, he's just planting himself right by the basket and so it's an awkward lob.

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"Wiseman should be giving himself some space" - Exactly my point during game thread. I miss "lob-it up-anywhere" dunks of McGee. But Wiseman is only 12 games in - so there is that.

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Yeah, Kerr made this point in the post-game.

One issue with Wiseman for these lobs is that he wants to go right under the basket and wait for a lob. Also, might be why we ended up with so many bounce and wraparound attempts for Wiseman under the basket.

So, Wiseman needs to get a feel of when/how to time himself outside the paint to improve the spacing on the play. Force the defender to commit to the ballhandler which opens up better passing angles to get the lob to Wiseman.

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Plus if he backs up a little, he gets more of running start at the jump. That always helps me when catching lobs, especially if they’re off target and I need to use all of my 7’6” wingspan to bring it in.

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Yeah, we've seen him dunk from the FT circle, he's got the range lol

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Those TO's come with the territory. Same for Green and many players who play a free wheelin' game. High risk/high reward tactics. Both are good enough to get away with them considering how many assists they rack up. It's a pretty ugly way but they've always been like this.

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There’s a line between free wheelin’ and sloppy/careless and Steph crosses it from time to time.

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Curry and Green are high TO players and cross that line every game. Green has had many double digit TO's. Green is generally declining in almost every facet of the game.

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Semi - random question. (Only semi random since we are now exactly 0.500. Does anyone know, with the play-in tournament, which teams are in the draft lottery? If you are the 10 seed, but make the playoffs through the play in tournament, do you get ping pong balls? What if you are the 7 seed, but don’t make the playoffs? It used to be pretty strightforward, if you don’t make the playoffs, you are in the lottery. Seems a little more complicated this year. It sure would be fun to make the playoffs as a 9 seed AND win the #1 draft pick through a lucky streak with the ping pong balls! (And of course Minnesota gives us there #4 pick which they were so close to hanging on to). Clearly I am trying to find a way to move on from that disappointing game.

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Jan 15, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Pretty sure the lotto order is determined by the standings *after* the play-in round. So you can’t make the playoffs and get a shot at Cade Cunningham.

We still could end up with the #1 and #4 picks, though!

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Great q. I wonder same thing

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My snooping around online does not reveal a reference, but everyone seems to think that winning the play-in takes you out of the lottery and those draft seeds will be rearranged.

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Yeah and the rules are technically non playoff teams are in the lottery but that of course doesn't account for play in

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