DODGERS!! But respect to the Giants. Houston are the favorites to win WS, at the moment.
Warriors are not picked to go all the way by Vegas.
Watched the Sacto/Lakers game. Although the Lakers lost all their preseason games, you have to fear their sheer size, and Lebron. For the Warriors, it will be pace vs size against the Lakers. The potential for the Lakers to dominate is there. Warriors will definitely be ready, but they will have to shoot well and run the Lakers down. They have no way to protect the rim against them.
They were and the WS was not taken from them!! MLB is one of worst run pro sports and they are very conservative and slow to incorporate changes that need to be made in the sport, like both leagues with the Designated Hitter and the electronic strike zone. Watching the umps call balls and strikes is painful as there are so many bad calls.
As a long time Giants fan I'm sad that they lost yesterday. But I have to agree with you about Baseball's leadership failure to address their problems. As much as I've been a fan for decades I've always struggled to watch a game on television ... just so long, slow and boring. Sitting in the stands on a beautiful day and watching a game is enjoyable though.
The last baseball game I attended was at Giants stadium in the early 2000's to see Ken Griffey Jr when he played for the Reds. Because of the internet and the info age, baseball seems to have slowed down. Basketball, otoh, has sped up, but it is really a chore listening to the Warrior announcers and all the stupid commercials that are blasted at you for 3 hours. Baseball is much more relaxing. No commercials on the internet and the better announcers give you some space. Kruk & Kuip are my all time favorite tandem, but I've never been a Giants fan.
Hey, Giants did pretty well... if your bar for "not a joke" is beyond what the Giants accomplished, then it's likely the Warriors will disappoint you too.
I picked a year at random to check to do some quality checking on predictions by 538 website given their surprisingly low prediction for GSW this year.
So: 2015-16 NBA standings, top ten teams: 538 predictions vs. actual
[First the 538 predicted # of wins, then the (actual), then how much they were off by]:
My god...watched some Giannis preseason highlights and forget anything I said in the past about the Hawks winning the East, I'm taking the Bucks to win the title (maybe for the next 5 seasons lol).
If you just look at highlights Giannis is a faster Gobert on defense and a younger Durant on offense 😱. The stats paint a slightly different picture, but he's still a recent MVP and reigning champion for good reason...
Kerr, Steph, Kuminga, Wise, and some other dude I don't recognize were all on Klay's boat. Not sure what the dude who posted it is on with saying they're on their way to the Giants game lol
Woah. Even on the conservative side which is like 2-3 weeks after he starts practicing fully that's still a possible December return. Way earlier than what I was expecting. Best Christmas gift ever!
I feel like we should leave it open for possible MLE additions later in the year, but Bradley and GP2 can both be in the rotation from the start. And it's just nice to have more bodies.
Avery Bradley, Gary Payton II or tax savings. Those seem to be the three choices with the open 15th roster spot as the competition enters its final week.
Bradley appeared to be the favorite a week ago, but he didn’t do enough to grab full control of the spot during the first three preseason games, when he was handed a big rotation role but struggled to make 3s and didn’t wow on the defensive end.
That left the door open for Payton, who returned to practice from an offseason hernia operation over the weekend and was given the green light for Tuesday’s game. Payton got two long stints before Bradley even entered the game in the fourth quarter.
As he’s done ever since joining the organization late last season, Payton made an energetic impression. ....
... multiple paragraphs and a vid about Payton's play and how well he did in the game ...
Is that enough to persuade the Warriors’ front office and ownership to keep him around? Those conversations will happen the weekend after the final preseason game Friday night against the Blazers. Payton has a chance to make a closing statement.
Lol disgusting because it paints an awkward mental picture I can’t unimagine! Surely he could have used a stagnant water analogy? He is Monte ‘Poole’ after all
A lot is discussed about Wiseman running pick and rolls to improve his efficiency but is there any indication of him working in a pick and pop? From what I remember, his shot is silky smooth and he has great range plus his release point is unblockable. A pnp between Wiseman and Poole might be unstoppable (baby) and would be a great counter to the pnr to keep defenses guessing.
I think if Wiseman plays as he has on offense (his better work) but improves on DEFENSE, that's what we're looking for. I think the reason he got benched was defense. it's just super hard when you're inexperienced.
Pick and pop is cool, but really, it's just better to have him get really good at the PNR. Get that catch and finish down. A PNR with a good ballhandler, big explosive finisher and three shooters is just a very hard NBA play to stop.
I’m guessing that’s the hope and his shooting and handles are probably the only thing he worked on during a long part of his rehab.
That said, I’m guessing it’s not as big a priority since they have to much shooting elsewhere and the quickest path to Wiseman becoming useful is to build it from the inside out on both offense and defense.
Here's a good off topic post: 538's forecast has the Warriors winning 37 games. Klay and Wiseman are strong negatives after they return. Everyone is weak. Have a look. Why is this just flat out wrong? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/warriors/
Their system isn't going to do a good job of predicting changes outside of those that are the most common trends. The common trends are that as players get older they get worse, and players who didn't produce much in the previous year are unlikely to produce much in the current year. This is an oversimplification, but the point is that it's bad at producing outliers. Your aggregate prediction is always going to be better otherwise. Add a bit of deterioration for Steph, Dray, and Klay, assume that everyone we signed is not going to produce, and you have the 538 prediction. Again, on the aggregate you will be right doing so. We have a combination of outliers this year. I don't think Steph is on the decline. Otto Porter looks really good and healthy. Poole looks like he took a leap. The system is matching players who were at the end of the careers and never produced significantly again as a comp for Klay - even if he's not what he once was, that's not the context for him this year. etc.
I mean the top two players they have are Steph, Draymond....and then a 3-way tie between Lee, GPII, and Chiozza. If that ends up being the case, yeah, 37 wins.
FWIW, they had the SF Giants projected to be the 17th best team in MLB with no chance to win a wild card or division.Right ahead of the Giants they had the Brewers, who won their division, and the Cardinals that made it to the 1 game playoff.
The biggest, most obvious thing that looks wrong is they have Jordan Poole rated as a negative player, playing 17 minutes/game. I'd project him as a strongly positive player, playing almost double that.
They have JTA as a negative player. He was positive last year. So they're regressing him to whatever previous projection.
They have Damion Lee as less of a positive then he was last year, and they also project him to play zero minutes.
So without even getting into pessimistic predictions on Porter, Bjelica, and Klay there's some low hanging fruit they missed, IMO.
From what I understand they weight heavily on prior seasons. Klay being out and injured heavily impacts his rating. Same with Wise having a bad rookie year.
My general opinion is that it's interesting what they're trying to do with their models. But the more complex and intricate it gets, the stranger the outliers will be. It'd probably work well in an ideal environment where teams don't have a lot of roster turnover and players don't get injured. I mean, how much can anyone (computer or human) predict how well Klay can fit into a team where he's only previously played with 4 of the current players... 2 years ago?
And 538 (and other catch all) metrics have historically disliked Klay.
Klay will fit anywhere. GTFOH with that hand wringing. His skillset is additive & complementary to anything a team is trying to run. Even if he sucks, just give him fewer minutes against better matchups.
Right, but 538's model doesn't have the league's respect for Klay as an input.
And I do think there's a tendency for wishful thinking and homerism to make us all assume Klay is going to come back in good shape. The model probably looks at the history of players coming back from injuray and estimates Klay's most likely outcome is near the middle or worse—after all, what does the data say about guys who tear their ACL and achilles in subsequent seasons? Whereas we fans look at Kevin Durant's apparent full recovery from achilles surgery and tend to assume that Klay will be the same—i.e. the best possible outcome.
We fans are also getting more inputs than the model to shape our estimates: instagram posts showing Klay knocking down 3's in the gym, chatter from the team about how much he wants to play again, etc.
So, it's some combination: a cold unfeeling machine doesn't have our fan optimism, but we also know a lot of stuff it just doesn't.
Many models never really liked Klay to begin with, honestly. Which I tend to think is a flaw in the models. Models are hard and they aren't special cased for players, so having some players models don't fit/project well is hardly damning.
Yep agreed. Not saying we can't make a decent common sense prediction. But trying to put a specific number on that and therefore implying there's a way to precisely quantify that impact, like these models are doing, is silly given the circumstances.
I'm not as familiar with basketball models, but with baseball models, there is an easy explanation for this that should also apply to basketball models:
Models can only predict a mean and a variance. During the season, some teams outperform the mean, and others underperform. A model doesn't know which teams will outperform or underperform ahead of time, but after the season's over, the winning teams who outperform will always have more wins than projected, and likewise with the losing teams who underperform.
Let's put it this way: basketball models basically never predict a 60 win team and yet there are often 60 win teams. It's not a question of "which teams" outperform it's that they never predict ANY team to outperform.
Here's a simplified example for understanding. If a model predicts 4 teams to end up with 57 wins, with a standard deviation of 5, then there's a 72% chance at least one of the teams will have at least 60 wins. So in essence, the model is predicting that there will be a 60 win team. It just doesn't know which one of the four will get 60 wins.
Adding your list together w/stopnpop proves the model, actually.
The only consistent 60+ win team is the Warriors, so that's the only team that's ever been predicted by the model to win 60+ games.
For the rest of the teams, it's a crapshoot of upper 50+ win teams, and 1 or 2 of them get "lucky" each year. The model can't predict the "luck" factor, so it doesn't try, and each year, you have 2-4(?) 55+ win teams, with +/- 5 wins variance, so 1 or 2 of them overperform, and get 60+ wins.
FWIW, when I put quotes around "luck," because, in this discussion, "luck" is just a proxy for factors that the model can't take into account.
Was thinking more "upper tier" and "bottom tier" but I suppose. Actually what I really think is the models tend to pinch toward the middle, so maybe the middling teams are more accurately projected.
Yeah, you lost me at "538." Their analytics tend to add the various players together as though it's a math problem, but that's not how basketball works. On offense, Lillard is great and McCullom is damn good, but when you add them you get points but poor defense. In general, defense is a hard thing for the numbers people to get right. Who knows, maybe the Warriors will win 37 games. But seems unlikely.
I browsed the article. Without clicking into any other articles on how player rating, projected time, etc. are projected, I'll note a handful of troubling areas:
(1) as others have mentioned, player projections don't handle injuries well, and the Dubs have four key contributors returning from injury (or very limited playing time): Klay, J-Dub, Auto, and Bjelly. So expect the model to underpredict performance for all four.
(2) Their playing time projection numbers are WAAAY OFF. In their full-strength projections, they expect Bjelly and D.Lee to get 0 minutes, while JFK, GP2, and MM get 9 rotation minutes per game each.
They've tweaked their models year after year to try and capture stuff that the models didn't do before. Like the playoff experience modifier they added to try and capture the "16 game players" / "Lebron coasting in the regular season" phenomenon. I think that did result in their projections becoming slightly more accurate? I wish they'd do more retrospectives on how well stuff like their tracking-data-based defensive metrics improved their predictions or not.
I'm happy that they put out a model at all, and I think it does pretty well for what it is. If you want predictions of what'll happen in an NBA season, your options are basically:
- Individual humans' predictions, which are full of subjective bias but can synthesize an enormous range of information.
- Betting markets, which are basically just a conglomerate of the opinions of humans who are serious enough to stake money on their predictions.
- Very basic stats like SRS, Net Rating, etc. There may or may not even be a way to translate these into win/loss numbers, and until the season starts you can't do much with them anyway.
- 538's model, which for all its faults is still the most accurate *mathematical model* I've seen for predicting NBA results.
I don't think 538 is going around saying their model is better than Vegas markets or expert predictions or anything. I think they're saying, mathematical models have advantages like being reproducible. (I won't say they're free from bias since—like all algorithms—they incorporate the biases of the people who design the algorithms and the people who record the input data.)
Basically, their model is not great, but I give them credit for trying.
Yea, I like what they try to do as well and I don't think they try imply they're better than anything else. But I do wish they would run all their predictions through at least the last N-iterations just so we can compare (like that "elo vs. raptor-based" radio button they have on some pages).
Also, are betting markets just aggregated opinions? I've always assumed Vegas has at least some math behind it (they only need to be "correct" 51% of the time after all).
I'm sure there are, but Vegas models are by and large run by betting money. You adjust the lines so that in aggregate, win or lose, the house wins. Even if some crazy analytics guy can get 99% certainty that the Dubs will miss the playoffs this season, their betting lines will still reflect what the money coming in is, because that 1% could ruin the house, if they followed their "predictions" over the market money. If they just follow the market money, and bank the spread, they 100% always make money.
Longshots are where they have more problems. Which is why they tend to discourage long shot and custom bets.
Of course they'll win 37 games. After they've played 38, or 41, or 45 or 50. The more important question is how many they'll win once playoffs start. I expect 16.
Newest from Slater on Wiseman, and this part stuck to me:
>>>First, an update on Wiseman, before discussing the longer-term plan. Friday is an important milestone. It’s the sixth-month mark since his meniscus surgery. The Warriors have cautiously held off on giving him unrestricted clearance to jump and work out at full speed. October 15 is the date Rick Celebrini and the training staff have targeted as the first possible point they’d give any kind of full go-ahead.
Even once it comes, Wiseman won’t get thrust right back into games. This will be a slow buildup. I’ve heard a full clearance is expected in the next couple of weeks.
...
In a few weeks, Santa Cruz is an option, either for scrimmages behind closed doors or full G League games, I’m told. He could use all the low-stakes game reps he can get and those are more available in Santa Cruz, where an NBA playoff chase isn’t happening.<<<
So Wiseman definitely not available to start the season and maybe not even until December or later?
Makes even less sense to me why the Warriors didn't target one more big in Free Agency...
Also noted in the article that they're not going to ping-pong him back and forth; if it happens at all, it will be part of the rehab/return to play process.
It was painful watching the new Thinking Basketball Top Ten Players breakdown. His argument is that Steph wasn't quite a top player in the NBA last year when Wiseman was around; but then was head and shoulders the number one player in the NBA when Wiseman wasn't. I hadn't realized that it was that stark an analytics difference, but it does pass the smell test. The Warriors keep saying they want to develop young talent while winning, but man I would love to have Wiseman 2025 right now, assuming he develops as young players do when they put in some work. When healthy he has shown flashes but he's about as raw as I am which makes sense, because he and I have played almost the same minutes in college/NBA. I think the Warriors would have loved to grab a big in free agency if someone really worth it were around, but I'm glad they didn't overly push the idea when the bargain bin looks pretty sparse. Jordan Bell, Marqueese Chriss or Marc Gasol (in Spain?) are not going to move the needle for this team. Ready for some small ball, everybody? All in the Poole!
> It was painful watching the new Thinking Basketball Top Ten Players breakdown
As an aside, I can't imagine it being "painful" watching that video when all of the amazing stars go by and you know Steph is going to be high up (and eventually 1/2) on his list.
My thing with the whole Wiseman situation is that the Warriors can talk about wanting to simplify things and get Wiseman in a low-leverage role on the team.
But they also created a roster where Wiseman's (potential) as a rebounder / shot blocker would fill an obvious hole in the roster construction.
Just kinda smells like the Warriors, despite saying they want to slow their roll with Wiseman, are setting it up that Wiseman kinda needs to be an important part of the puzzle as soon as this year.
Or otherwise set themselves up where they need to play a ton of Draymond regular season minutes at the 5....
I think there’s a middle ground that’s pretty easy to envision:
They’re a playoff team and possible a contender without Wiseman. With a combination of practice, G-League and limited-but-increasing NBA minutes, they’ve got a whole season to develop his game into “useful” in the way that Javale was, which will really help their totals chances.
My thought is the Warriors are going to treat the start of the season like a playoff push. That means running Dray at the 5 as much as they did to end the season last year.
They want the best record possible to give them some leeway for when Wiseman and then Klay are cleared for play and they have to integrate them into the rotation.
Never even thought of that, but I would LOVE it. While other teams are figuring themselves out, the Ws could start fast and bank some wins so they've got a little breathing room when they have to start making adjustments themselves. Brilliant!
The Athletic article you linked goes into detail about what they think they did wrong last year and how they plan to address that this year. tl;dr - Wiseman CAN be an important part of the roster doing the stuff we thought he'd do last year. They're slowing their roll on developing him as a more well-rounded featured all-star center and possibly best player on the team.
Sheesh -- aim high. I don't understand why they didn't start him on the things he could be successful at sooner. If he's going to be well-rounded, he will eventually need to be good at many things. Why not start where he's a natural and work on the other stuff along the way?
Both statements can be true; Loon is a 20-25 MPG player which leaves 23-28 minutes of 5 play that will certainly include both Draymond and Bjelica (and possibly some JTA as well). As Wiseman (hopefully) starts earning more minutes that will diminish but still likely they will both be playing some time at the 5 even towards the end of the season.
I don't recall it being loud as far as them trying to sign him over the summer, more just a report or two that they might be interested in signing him during this upcoming season.
"I’ve heard a full clearance is expected in the next couple of weeks" + "Santa Cruz is an option for scrimmages or G League games" == "December or later"? I think you're massively reaching there.
> So Wiseman definitely not available to start the season
We've known about that for quite a while now, that's not news.
I think December is reasonable since it's only 6 weeks away. A couple weeks until full clearance, another week to ramp up workouts, and another for conditioning would put us in mid-November. At that point he could go full speed at practice and/or go to Santa Cruz for the next couple weeks (Showcase Cup).
Also, the GL regular season starts on Dec 27 so if they're looking at /that/ then it's definitely December or later.
Not explicitly, but it said that one plan is to give Wiseman a G-League stint, but the G-League doesn't start until December. So that's where I got December from.
Unless the Warriors plan on playing Wiseman in the Showcase Cup tournament starting on Nov 5th....
Hmmm, I didn't know about this Showcase Cup until I looked it up just now.
Looks like it starts on Nov 5th with with 29 teams into 4 regional pods, and each pod will play 12 games against each other. Then the 8 teams with the best winning% will advance into a 1 game elimination tournament that starts on Dec 19. Then the true G-League season will start on December 29th.
So I guess nevermind on my original post? There will be some actual G-League games for Wiseman to test out his knee with Santa Cruz in November.
Now, I wonder if the Warriors will just send Kuminga down to Santa Cruz to play the entire showcase tournament.
With Klay out, I think Moody has a good chance at rotation minutes so I don't see Moody being sent down.
I am not sure about the Showcase distinction but I can tell you living in Santa Cruz that there's a huge sign in the G-League sales office "Games Begin Nov. 5!!!"
What's interesting here is the vastly different levels of chemistry on the teams. The Lakers look lost on defense and communicating poorly if at all.
On the Warrior side, there is no reason to expect that Andre and NemBjel will work well with GPII based on some past experience working together. It's just veterans making the right read -- and that includes GPII, sort of. I was surprised to learn he's been around since 2016. Never played a full season or been a starter, but he's also no rookie. Which helps explain why he was making the smart cuts all over the place.
I like GP2 for the spot out of the guys in camp but I'd first want to know if any roster-worthy big men got cut from other camps. Perhaps even Chriss, although it'll be informative to see how he looks in tomorrow's game. Haven't watched any other teams in the preseason so I don't know if he looks as athletic as he did pre-injury.
The vets on the Warriors seem to be pushing for Bradley though.
Eh, they've been clear they have other priorities for the single remaining roster spot, which is a PG or 2. I don't think there's any reason to think it's anything specific to Chriss.
Yah, I think if they had a 16th spot, it'd go to a big like Chriss. Unfortunately, they are reserving three roster spots for the future: J-Dub, JFK, and MM. Which means, their rotation roster spots with Klay out are 11. Not enough room for another big after Loon and Bjelly.
I agree in principle that if Olajuwon was out there that would be a much higher priority for the Warriors than another guard. But his game availability is, sadly, nil, and Chriss is no Olajuwon, not that you said he was. He really doesn't bring very much even when healthy and he hasn't been healthy. It looks to me like the Warriors are about to test Small Ball Theory and I think GPII has shown himself far more energizing than Bradley.
Of course Olajuwon is silly hyperbole, but I also think it fair to say that the names we've been seeing: Bell, Chriss, even Wiseman when healthy, do not seem likely to add to the Warriors win total. I know someone has to body up on bigs down low, but if the price of that is a low-offense player, then I think the Warriors have shown that they would rather play Draymond and guys like Bjelica out of position because of their utility on offense. They pioneered the Death Lineup because Bogut was too slow to switch and I would not be surprised if they go with a small lineup this year a lot. Looney will start for now and soon enough Wiseman will be availble. Looney is steady but not spectacular, Wiseman is spectacular but not steady. It all matters whom the Warriors are targeting as a big man. Certainly if they can get a valuable piece then of course it's worth it, but I think a center for the sake of it is not that helpful. I could be wrong.
On not knowing what Rondo was doing on the 2nd play, I think he was A) shading over to cover Auto on the wing (AD is over there a bit but is trailing) and/or B) he's looking to avoid a defensive three second call which would require him to leave the lane. Probably A.
Yea, probably (A) if anything. It's only a defensive 3-second violation if he's not near a player. So he didn't have to leave the paint since GP2 was right there.
OT: Kyrie = Muhammad Ali? NOPE
https://mobile.twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1448631178362298372
DODGERS!! But respect to the Giants. Houston are the favorites to win WS, at the moment.
Warriors are not picked to go all the way by Vegas.
Watched the Sacto/Lakers game. Although the Lakers lost all their preseason games, you have to fear their sheer size, and Lebron. For the Warriors, it will be pace vs size against the Lakers. The potential for the Lakers to dominate is there. Warriors will definitely be ready, but they will have to shoot well and run the Lakers down. They have no way to protect the rim against them.
🤮
aren’t the astros cheaters
They were and the WS was not taken from them!! MLB is one of worst run pro sports and they are very conservative and slow to incorporate changes that need to be made in the sport, like both leagues with the Designated Hitter and the electronic strike zone. Watching the umps call balls and strikes is painful as there are so many bad calls.
As a long time Giants fan I'm sad that they lost yesterday. But I have to agree with you about Baseball's leadership failure to address their problems. As much as I've been a fan for decades I've always struggled to watch a game on television ... just so long, slow and boring. Sitting in the stands on a beautiful day and watching a game is enjoyable though.
The last baseball game I attended was at Giants stadium in the early 2000's to see Ken Griffey Jr when he played for the Reds. Because of the internet and the info age, baseball seems to have slowed down. Basketball, otoh, has sped up, but it is really a chore listening to the Warrior announcers and all the stupid commercials that are blasted at you for 3 hours. Baseball is much more relaxing. No commercials on the internet and the better announcers give you some space. Kruk & Kuip are my all time favorite tandem, but I've never been a Giants fan.
yes, and it's spelled asstros
Go asstros then
yuck
I know, that's how evil the dodgers are
Bay Area sports teams are a joke this year...at least the Warriors won't disappoint.
107 wins isn’t a joke.
Hey, Giants did pretty well... if your bar for "not a joke" is beyond what the Giants accomplished, then it's likely the Warriors will disappoint you too.
Championships or bust.
Smh Warriors have to carry all the title weight around these parts. Least the Giants contributed this century.
Giants have won as many championships this century as the Warriors have, and with less talented teams.
I picked a year at random to check to do some quality checking on predictions by 538 website given their surprisingly low prediction for GSW this year.
So: 2015-16 NBA standings, top ten teams: 538 predictions vs. actual
[First the 538 predicted # of wins, then the (actual), then how much they were off by]:
Cleveland 63 (57) 6
GSW 60 (73) 13
OKC 58 (55) 3
Spurs 57 (67) 10
Clippers 56 (53) 3
Rockets 52 (41) 11
Grizllies 50 (42) 8
Celtics 49 (48) 1 good job
Bulls 48 (42) 6
Pelicans 45 (30) 15
Other notables:
Raptors (45) 56 11
Heat (37) 48 11
Draw your own conclusions….
Yah, it's not great, but it is predictive. Here's the Scatter Plot. R^2 is 0.35, which is significant, but underwhelming.
https://ibb.co/QNHZfvM
If someone could post the vegas predictions for the season in question, we could compare the two.
or alternatively, ESPN, or some such.
Oh, also, the r^2 probably goes up significantly if you do the whole league rather than just top10.
And probably if you did it across multiple seasons. In other words, smaller sample sizes (eg. a single team) are more prone to variance...
absolutely.
I mean... that doesn't seem horrible, right? Every one of those teams had injury luck and unpredictable player development ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
If your point is "Don't trust the numbers that much", then yeah... but that's kind of obvious tho.
> Draw your own conclusions
73 wins here we come!
My god...watched some Giannis preseason highlights and forget anything I said in the past about the Hawks winning the East, I'm taking the Bucks to win the title (maybe for the next 5 seasons lol).
https://twitter.com/stevejones20/status/1448457932983656448
You may be right. His mentality to just compete and be great, fearlessly, combined with his overwhelming physical tools is Jordan-esque.
If he masters a couple go-to moves, I’m not sure what holds him back.
If you just look at highlights Giannis is a faster Gobert on defense and a younger Durant on offense 😱. The stats paint a slightly different picture, but he's still a recent MVP and reigning champion for good reason...
I mean highlights aside he's always a faster Gobert on defense, just not a younger Durant. Still a great player as you say!
Watching this makes me hope Kuminga grows those extra 2 inches
https://www.reddit.com/r/warriors/comments/q87vxd/whole_squad_going_to_the_giants_game/
Kerr, Steph, Kuminga, Wise, and some other dude I don't recognize were all on Klay's boat. Not sure what the dude who posted it is on with saying they're on their way to the Giants game lol
They’re all leaving Wiggins Island
What do you mean? Seems pretty clear.
Apparently Klay might be cleared for full practice in a month
https://twitter.com/stadium/status/1448774813275803651?s=21
Woah. Even on the conservative side which is like 2-3 weeks after he starts practicing fully that's still a possible December return. Way earlier than what I was expecting. Best Christmas gift ever!
Actually his situation is a bit different. The conditioning process might be longer. Either way, great news!
As per Slater and the Athletic, Warriors "may" be down to Bradley, GP2, or leaving the 15th roster spot empty: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2021/10/warriors-notes-bradley-payton-lee-green-myers-wiseman.html
I feel like we should leave it open for possible MLE additions later in the year, but Bradley and GP2 can both be in the rotation from the start. And it's just nice to have more bodies.
You can always sign someone to a partially guaranteed deal and switch him out for a different player as needs and availabilities arise.
Can you still do back-to-back 10-day deals? It’d be fun to have a new player there every couple of weeks, sort of like hosting exchange students.
Narrowing it down to what we all thought it was at the start of camp lol
> Warriors "may" be down to Bradley, GP2, or leaving the 15th roster spot empty
That narrows it down! lol
IKR? If anyone has access to the Athletic article it might have a little more information, hard to say.
Avery Bradley, Gary Payton II or tax savings. Those seem to be the three choices with the open 15th roster spot as the competition enters its final week.
Bradley appeared to be the favorite a week ago, but he didn’t do enough to grab full control of the spot during the first three preseason games, when he was handed a big rotation role but struggled to make 3s and didn’t wow on the defensive end.
That left the door open for Payton, who returned to practice from an offseason hernia operation over the weekend and was given the green light for Tuesday’s game. Payton got two long stints before Bradley even entered the game in the fourth quarter.
As he’s done ever since joining the organization late last season, Payton made an energetic impression. ....
... multiple paragraphs and a vid about Payton's play and how well he did in the game ...
Is that enough to persuade the Warriors’ front office and ownership to keep him around? Those conversations will happen the weekend after the final preseason game Friday night against the Blazers. Payton has a chance to make a closing statement.
Monte Poole, wordsmith: "That’s what Iguodala does, lubricating a stagnant or constipated offense."
Full text: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/andre-iguodalas-subtle-contributions-offer-warriors-glimpse-whats-come
I've always thought of Iggy as the lubed up q-tip that dislodges the kidney stone of a clogged offense
Monte knows the importance of staying regular.
Lol disgusting because it paints an awkward mental picture I can’t unimagine! Surely he could have used a stagnant water analogy? He is Monte ‘Poole’ after all
man, that's awful
It's borderline vulgar, but I kinda like it.
"So you're saying our offense is poop?!"
“Coach, our offense is getting raw-dogged out there. Let me get in there and lube things up so we can have a better time.”
A lot is discussed about Wiseman running pick and rolls to improve his efficiency but is there any indication of him working in a pick and pop? From what I remember, his shot is silky smooth and he has great range plus his release point is unblockable. A pnp between Wiseman and Poole might be unstoppable (baby) and would be a great counter to the pnr to keep defenses guessing.
I think if Wiseman plays as he has on offense (his better work) but improves on DEFENSE, that's what we're looking for. I think the reason he got benched was defense. it's just super hard when you're inexperienced.
Pick and pop is cool, but really, it's just better to have him get really good at the PNR. Get that catch and finish down. A PNR with a good ballhandler, big explosive finisher and three shooters is just a very hard NBA play to stop.
I’m guessing that’s the hope and his shooting and handles are probably the only thing he worked on during a long part of his rehab.
That said, I’m guessing it’s not as big a priority since they have to much shooting elsewhere and the quickest path to Wiseman becoming useful is to build it from the inside out on both offense and defense.
*so much shooting (you can never have to much shooting)
Wasn't there a video somewhere where they show coaches rebuilding his 3 point shot?
Here's a good off topic post: 538's forecast has the Warriors winning 37 games. Klay and Wiseman are strong negatives after they return. Everyone is weak. Have a look. Why is this just flat out wrong? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/warriors/
Their system isn't going to do a good job of predicting changes outside of those that are the most common trends. The common trends are that as players get older they get worse, and players who didn't produce much in the previous year are unlikely to produce much in the current year. This is an oversimplification, but the point is that it's bad at producing outliers. Your aggregate prediction is always going to be better otherwise. Add a bit of deterioration for Steph, Dray, and Klay, assume that everyone we signed is not going to produce, and you have the 538 prediction. Again, on the aggregate you will be right doing so. We have a combination of outliers this year. I don't think Steph is on the decline. Otto Porter looks really good and healthy. Poole looks like he took a leap. The system is matching players who were at the end of the careers and never produced significantly again as a comp for Klay - even if he's not what he once was, that's not the context for him this year. etc.
I agree with you and am optimistic. Hope is the lifeblood of sports fans.
*I meant to say bad at predicting, not producing.
I mean the top two players they have are Steph, Draymond....and then a 3-way tie between Lee, GPII, and Chiozza. If that ends up being the case, yeah, 37 wins.
FWIW, they had the SF Giants projected to be the 17th best team in MLB with no chance to win a wild card or division.Right ahead of the Giants they had the Brewers, who won their division, and the Cardinals that made it to the 1 game playoff.
Also if somebody wants to give me 999-1 odds that the Warriors won't win the championship, I think I'd take that bet.
The biggest, most obvious thing that looks wrong is they have Jordan Poole rated as a negative player, playing 17 minutes/game. I'd project him as a strongly positive player, playing almost double that.
They have JTA as a negative player. He was positive last year. So they're regressing him to whatever previous projection.
They have Damion Lee as less of a positive then he was last year, and they also project him to play zero minutes.
So without even getting into pessimistic predictions on Porter, Bjelica, and Klay there's some low hanging fruit they missed, IMO.
From what I understand they weight heavily on prior seasons. Klay being out and injured heavily impacts his rating. Same with Wise having a bad rookie year.
My general opinion is that it's interesting what they're trying to do with their models. But the more complex and intricate it gets, the stranger the outliers will be. It'd probably work well in an ideal environment where teams don't have a lot of roster turnover and players don't get injured. I mean, how much can anyone (computer or human) predict how well Klay can fit into a team where he's only previously played with 4 of the current players... 2 years ago?
And 538 (and other catch all) metrics have historically disliked Klay.
Klay will fit anywhere. GTFOH with that hand wringing. His skillset is additive & complementary to anything a team is trying to run. Even if he sucks, just give him fewer minutes against better matchups.
Right, but 538's model doesn't have the league's respect for Klay as an input.
And I do think there's a tendency for wishful thinking and homerism to make us all assume Klay is going to come back in good shape. The model probably looks at the history of players coming back from injuray and estimates Klay's most likely outcome is near the middle or worse—after all, what does the data say about guys who tear their ACL and achilles in subsequent seasons? Whereas we fans look at Kevin Durant's apparent full recovery from achilles surgery and tend to assume that Klay will be the same—i.e. the best possible outcome.
We fans are also getting more inputs than the model to shape our estimates: instagram posts showing Klay knocking down 3's in the gym, chatter from the team about how much he wants to play again, etc.
So, it's some combination: a cold unfeeling machine doesn't have our fan optimism, but we also know a lot of stuff it just doesn't.
Many models never really liked Klay to begin with, honestly. Which I tend to think is a flaw in the models. Models are hard and they aren't special cased for players, so having some players models don't fit/project well is hardly damning.
That too.
Yep agreed. Not saying we can't make a decent common sense prediction. But trying to put a specific number on that and therefore implying there's a way to precisely quantify that impact, like these models are doing, is silly given the circumstances.
We won 39 games last year. You have to think Curry falls off a cliff to think we win fewer this year, with 10 more games to play.
Worth noting basically all the models underproject wins for top teams on a regular basis. Not sure why.
I'm not as familiar with basketball models, but with baseball models, there is an easy explanation for this that should also apply to basketball models:
Models can only predict a mean and a variance. During the season, some teams outperform the mean, and others underperform. A model doesn't know which teams will outperform or underperform ahead of time, but after the season's over, the winning teams who outperform will always have more wins than projected, and likewise with the losing teams who underperform.
Let's put it this way: basketball models basically never predict a 60 win team and yet there are often 60 win teams. It's not a question of "which teams" outperform it's that they never predict ANY team to outperform.
I think 60-wins is too much of an outlier for any team to predict it as their most likely outcome.
Based on my admittedly shallow research below, a model should always predict at least one 60+ win team and should usually predict two.
Here's a simplified example for understanding. If a model predicts 4 teams to end up with 57 wins, with a standard deviation of 5, then there's a 72% chance at least one of the teams will have at least 60 wins. So in essence, the model is predicting that there will be a 60 win team. It just doesn't know which one of the four will get 60 wins.
But why though? Predicting that at least one team has 60+ wins is very different from predicting a specific team will win 60+ games.
I feel like I'm in this line. I also feel like prognosticators that stay away from prognosticating outliers aren't really prognosticating.
That's the whole point of mean and variance.
Looking at the last 10 years there are almost always two sixty win teams. For example:
2010-11: Bulls (62), Spurs (61)
2011-12: (Strike-shortened, projected to 82 games) Bulls (62), Spurs (62)
2012-13: Heat (66), Thunder (60)
2013-14: Spurs (62), Thunder (59)
2014-15: Warriors (67), Hawks (60)
2015-16: Warriors (73), Spurs (67)
2016-17: Warriors (67), Spurs (61)
2017-18: Rockets (65), Raptors (59)
2018-19: Bucks (60), Raptors (58)
2019-20: (Pandemic-shortened, projected to 82 games) Bucks (63), Lakers (60)
I don't understand the idea that it's okay because of mean and variance that your model never predicts something that happens virtually every year.
Adding your list together w/stopnpop proves the model, actually.
The only consistent 60+ win team is the Warriors, so that's the only team that's ever been predicted by the model to win 60+ games.
For the rest of the teams, it's a crapshoot of upper 50+ win teams, and 1 or 2 of them get "lucky" each year. The model can't predict the "luck" factor, so it doesn't try, and each year, you have 2-4(?) 55+ win teams, with +/- 5 wins variance, so 1 or 2 of them overperform, and get 60+ wins.
FWIW, when I put quotes around "luck," because, in this discussion, "luck" is just a proxy for factors that the model can't take into account.
Average finish of the top two teams for the last ten years: 62.7
Nice... this is so so obvious when you put it that way.
Woops, this was supposed to be a reply to Being.
> underproject wins for top teams on a regular basis
Interesting... do the bottom tier teams get overprojected for wins?
There is a total number of wins that has to be met, so yes, that would be the implication. I can't say I've done a deep study of it though!
Well, it could be overprojecting the middling teams' wins instead, I guess?
Was thinking more "upper tier" and "bottom tier" but I suppose. Actually what I really think is the models tend to pinch toward the middle, so maybe the middling teams are more accurately projected.
> There is a total number of wins that has to be met
lol duh, brainfart... one team wins less -> some other team wins more
Yeah, you lost me at "538." Their analytics tend to add the various players together as though it's a math problem, but that's not how basketball works. On offense, Lillard is great and McCullom is damn good, but when you add them you get points but poor defense. In general, defense is a hard thing for the numbers people to get right. Who knows, maybe the Warriors will win 37 games. But seems unlikely.
I browsed the article. Without clicking into any other articles on how player rating, projected time, etc. are projected, I'll note a handful of troubling areas:
(1) as others have mentioned, player projections don't handle injuries well, and the Dubs have four key contributors returning from injury (or very limited playing time): Klay, J-Dub, Auto, and Bjelly. So expect the model to underpredict performance for all four.
(2) Their playing time projection numbers are WAAAY OFF. In their full-strength projections, they expect Bjelly and D.Lee to get 0 minutes, while JFK, GP2, and MM get 9 rotation minutes per game each.
Those minutes projections are whackadoo!
I really hate that 538 just keeps using models that they know are so inaccurate.
Pull it back for a few years and work on harmonizing your outputs, because whatever systems they have right now just suck
They've tweaked their models year after year to try and capture stuff that the models didn't do before. Like the playoff experience modifier they added to try and capture the "16 game players" / "Lebron coasting in the regular season" phenomenon. I think that did result in their projections becoming slightly more accurate? I wish they'd do more retrospectives on how well stuff like their tracking-data-based defensive metrics improved their predictions or not.
I'm happy that they put out a model at all, and I think it does pretty well for what it is. If you want predictions of what'll happen in an NBA season, your options are basically:
- Individual humans' predictions, which are full of subjective bias but can synthesize an enormous range of information.
- Betting markets, which are basically just a conglomerate of the opinions of humans who are serious enough to stake money on their predictions.
- Very basic stats like SRS, Net Rating, etc. There may or may not even be a way to translate these into win/loss numbers, and until the season starts you can't do much with them anyway.
- 538's model, which for all its faults is still the most accurate *mathematical model* I've seen for predicting NBA results.
I don't think 538 is going around saying their model is better than Vegas markets or expert predictions or anything. I think they're saying, mathematical models have advantages like being reproducible. (I won't say they're free from bias since—like all algorithms—they incorporate the biases of the people who design the algorithms and the people who record the input data.)
Basically, their model is not great, but I give them credit for trying.
Yea, I like what they try to do as well and I don't think they try imply they're better than anything else. But I do wish they would run all their predictions through at least the last N-iterations just so we can compare (like that "elo vs. raptor-based" radio button they have on some pages).
Also, are betting markets just aggregated opinions? I've always assumed Vegas has at least some math behind it (they only need to be "correct" 51% of the time after all).
> I've always assumed Vegas has at least some math behind it
I believe there are some very smart cookies in the analytics business who work for Vegas behind the scenes. A lot of $$$$$ involved.
I'm sure there are, but Vegas models are by and large run by betting money. You adjust the lines so that in aggregate, win or lose, the house wins. Even if some crazy analytics guy can get 99% certainty that the Dubs will miss the playoffs this season, their betting lines will still reflect what the money coming in is, because that 1% could ruin the house, if they followed their "predictions" over the market money. If they just follow the market money, and bank the spread, they 100% always make money.
Longshots are where they have more problems. Which is why they tend to discourage long shot and custom bets.
(Needless to say, that would all be proprietary and heavily guarded, unlike what we see from academia and sites like 538).
Of course they'll win 37 games. After they've played 38, or 41, or 45 or 50. The more important question is how many they'll win once playoffs start. I expect 16.
It really is simple when you think about it. Just win 16 playoff games.
Man, I canNOT wait for Explain One Klay.
You can't "explain" Klay. It's part of his charm.
https://theathletic.com/2867750/2021/10/14/the-warriors-second-season-plan-for-james-wiseman-and-how-dejan-milojevic-factors-into-it/
Newest from Slater on Wiseman, and this part stuck to me:
>>>First, an update on Wiseman, before discussing the longer-term plan. Friday is an important milestone. It’s the sixth-month mark since his meniscus surgery. The Warriors have cautiously held off on giving him unrestricted clearance to jump and work out at full speed. October 15 is the date Rick Celebrini and the training staff have targeted as the first possible point they’d give any kind of full go-ahead.
Even once it comes, Wiseman won’t get thrust right back into games. This will be a slow buildup. I’ve heard a full clearance is expected in the next couple of weeks.
...
In a few weeks, Santa Cruz is an option, either for scrimmages behind closed doors or full G League games, I’m told. He could use all the low-stakes game reps he can get and those are more available in Santa Cruz, where an NBA playoff chase isn’t happening.<<<
So Wiseman definitely not available to start the season and maybe not even until December or later?
Makes even less sense to me why the Warriors didn't target one more big in Free Agency...
Also noted in the article that they're not going to ping-pong him back and forth; if it happens at all, it will be part of the rehab/return to play process.
It was painful watching the new Thinking Basketball Top Ten Players breakdown. His argument is that Steph wasn't quite a top player in the NBA last year when Wiseman was around; but then was head and shoulders the number one player in the NBA when Wiseman wasn't. I hadn't realized that it was that stark an analytics difference, but it does pass the smell test. The Warriors keep saying they want to develop young talent while winning, but man I would love to have Wiseman 2025 right now, assuming he develops as young players do when they put in some work. When healthy he has shown flashes but he's about as raw as I am which makes sense, because he and I have played almost the same minutes in college/NBA. I think the Warriors would have loved to grab a big in free agency if someone really worth it were around, but I'm glad they didn't overly push the idea when the bargain bin looks pretty sparse. Jordan Bell, Marqueese Chriss or Marc Gasol (in Spain?) are not going to move the needle for this team. Ready for some small ball, everybody? All in the Poole!
> It was painful watching the new Thinking Basketball Top Ten Players breakdown
As an aside, I can't imagine it being "painful" watching that video when all of the amazing stars go by and you know Steph is going to be high up (and eventually 1/2) on his list.
Yeah, you're right. It was painful in the Wiseman sense, but delightful in the Steph sense.
My thing with the whole Wiseman situation is that the Warriors can talk about wanting to simplify things and get Wiseman in a low-leverage role on the team.
But they also created a roster where Wiseman's (potential) as a rebounder / shot blocker would fill an obvious hole in the roster construction.
Just kinda smells like the Warriors, despite saying they want to slow their roll with Wiseman, are setting it up that Wiseman kinda needs to be an important part of the puzzle as soon as this year.
Or otherwise set themselves up where they need to play a ton of Draymond regular season minutes at the 5....
I think there’s a middle ground that’s pretty easy to envision:
They’re a playoff team and possible a contender without Wiseman. With a combination of practice, G-League and limited-but-increasing NBA minutes, they’ve got a whole season to develop his game into “useful” in the way that Javale was, which will really help their totals chances.
That doesn’t seem like a far-fetched plan.
My thought is the Warriors are going to treat the start of the season like a playoff push. That means running Dray at the 5 as much as they did to end the season last year.
They want the best record possible to give them some leeway for when Wiseman and then Klay are cleared for play and they have to integrate them into the rotation.
Never even thought of that, but I would LOVE it. While other teams are figuring themselves out, the Ws could start fast and bank some wins so they've got a little breathing room when they have to start making adjustments themselves. Brilliant!
The Athletic article you linked goes into detail about what they think they did wrong last year and how they plan to address that this year. tl;dr - Wiseman CAN be an important part of the roster doing the stuff we thought he'd do last year. They're slowing their roll on developing him as a more well-rounded featured all-star center and possibly best player on the team.
Sheesh -- aim high. I don't understand why they didn't start him on the things he could be successful at sooner. If he's going to be well-rounded, he will eventually need to be good at many things. Why not start where he's a natural and work on the other stuff along the way?
Totally agree. Draymond and Bjelica seem destined to be 5s this year at current rates and that's a two-sided coin.
Kevon Looney was the starting center for a team that finished the season 15-5. Why leave him out completely of the rotation?
Both statements can be true; Loon is a 20-25 MPG player which leaves 23-28 minutes of 5 play that will certainly include both Draymond and Bjelica (and possibly some JTA as well). As Wiseman (hopefully) starts earning more minutes that will diminish but still likely they will both be playing some time at the 5 even towards the end of the season.
Because it doesn't fit a narrative?
JTA, Dray and Looney are going to be a big part of the rotation as well.
*thinks about what a one-sided coin would look like* 🤪
(but I get what you're saying! haha)
A one-sided coin is a ball.
🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
> I think the Warriors would have loved to grab a big in free agency if someone really worth it were around
Doubt it, if they would have loved to then they would have.
they were widely, and loudly, coveting Gasol though.
I don't recall it being loud as far as them trying to sign him over the summer, more just a report or two that they might be interested in signing him during this upcoming season.
Agreed, I think the "loudly" was reporters and the fan base, not the Warriors. We did go after Batum, but he's a different level of talent.
"I’ve heard a full clearance is expected in the next couple of weeks" + "Santa Cruz is an option for scrimmages or G League games" == "December or later"? I think you're massively reaching there.
> So Wiseman definitely not available to start the season
We've known about that for quite a while now, that's not news.
Yeah oops, I was under the impression the G-League didn't start until December, didn't know about the showcase cup until just now.
So yeah, they can give Wiseman some G-League games in November.
I think December is reasonable since it's only 6 weeks away. A couple weeks until full clearance, another week to ramp up workouts, and another for conditioning would put us in mid-November. At that point he could go full speed at practice and/or go to Santa Cruz for the next couple weeks (Showcase Cup).
Also, the GL regular season starts on Dec 27 so if they're looking at /that/ then it's definitely December or later.
(Thanks for the summary!)
Where's your "December" coming from? Is it in the article?
Not explicitly, but it said that one plan is to give Wiseman a G-League stint, but the G-League doesn't start until December. So that's where I got December from.
Unless the Warriors plan on playing Wiseman in the Showcase Cup tournament starting on Nov 5th....
Hmmm, I didn't know about this Showcase Cup until I looked it up just now.
Looks like it starts on Nov 5th with with 29 teams into 4 regional pods, and each pod will play 12 games against each other. Then the 8 teams with the best winning% will advance into a 1 game elimination tournament that starts on Dec 19. Then the true G-League season will start on December 29th.
So I guess nevermind on my original post? There will be some actual G-League games for Wiseman to test out his knee with Santa Cruz in November.
Now, I wonder if the Warriors will just send Kuminga down to Santa Cruz to play the entire showcase tournament.
With Klay out, I think Moody has a good chance at rotation minutes so I don't see Moody being sent down.
Yeah, Wise should:
1. Start jumping and going full speed on 10/15
2. Get his timing/conditioning back for 2-3 weeks in practice/scrimmage/pre-season (GSW will be on the road till 10/28, so most work with with SCW)
3. Join GSW at some point during the long home stand from 10/28-11/12
To clarify "pre-season" above is in reference to getting a few games with SCW, not actual NBA preseason that's happening now.
I am not sure about the Showcase distinction but I can tell you living in Santa Cruz that there's a huge sign in the G-League sales office "Games Begin Nov. 5!!!"
What's interesting here is the vastly different levels of chemistry on the teams. The Lakers look lost on defense and communicating poorly if at all.
On the Warrior side, there is no reason to expect that Andre and NemBjel will work well with GPII based on some past experience working together. It's just veterans making the right read -- and that includes GPII, sort of. I was surprised to learn he's been around since 2016. Never played a full season or been a starter, but he's also no rookie. Which helps explain why he was making the smart cuts all over the place.
"Bro, it's pre-season, the Lakers aren't even trying" - Lakers fans
On that first play from Bjelly to GP2, I’d expect LeBron to be engaged at something more than 0% if it were a regular season game.
They'll also say that about the regular season.
"Bro, it's the regular season, the Lakers aren't even trying" - Lakers fans
Bro, LeBron is CRUSHING the early vacation.
I like GP2 for the spot out of the guys in camp but I'd first want to know if any roster-worthy big men got cut from other camps. Perhaps even Chriss, although it'll be informative to see how he looks in tomorrow's game. Haven't watched any other teams in the preseason so I don't know if he looks as athletic as he did pre-injury.
The vets on the Warriors seem to be pushing for Bradley though.
> Perhaps even Chriss
For whatever reason, the Warriors have made it pretty clear that they don't give a damn about him : (
I really thought they'd bring him back, even for camp. But it really looks like the team isn't interested
Eh, they've been clear they have other priorities for the single remaining roster spot, which is a PG or 2. I don't think there's any reason to think it's anything specific to Chriss.
Yah, I think if they had a 16th spot, it'd go to a big like Chriss. Unfortunately, they are reserving three roster spots for the future: J-Dub, JFK, and MM. Which means, their rotation roster spots with Klay out are 11. Not enough room for another big after Loon and Bjelly.
I agree in principle that if Olajuwon was out there that would be a much higher priority for the Warriors than another guard. But his game availability is, sadly, nil, and Chriss is no Olajuwon, not that you said he was. He really doesn't bring very much even when healthy and he hasn't been healthy. It looks to me like the Warriors are about to test Small Ball Theory and I think GPII has shown himself far more energizing than Bradley.
Definitely do not buy the idea that it's only worth it to add a big if they are Hakeem Olajuwon.
Of course Olajuwon is silly hyperbole, but I also think it fair to say that the names we've been seeing: Bell, Chriss, even Wiseman when healthy, do not seem likely to add to the Warriors win total. I know someone has to body up on bigs down low, but if the price of that is a low-offense player, then I think the Warriors have shown that they would rather play Draymond and guys like Bjelica out of position because of their utility on offense. They pioneered the Death Lineup because Bogut was too slow to switch and I would not be surprised if they go with a small lineup this year a lot. Looney will start for now and soon enough Wiseman will be availble. Looney is steady but not spectacular, Wiseman is spectacular but not steady. It all matters whom the Warriors are targeting as a big man. Certainly if they can get a valuable piece then of course it's worth it, but I think a center for the sake of it is not that helpful. I could be wrong.
> add to the Warriors win total.
I think the idea isn't to add to the Warriors win total, more to keep it similar while burning less of Draymond at the 5 during the regular season.
On not knowing what Rondo was doing on the 2nd play, I think he was A) shading over to cover Auto on the wing (AD is over there a bit but is trailing) and/or B) he's looking to avoid a defensive three second call which would require him to leave the lane. Probably A.
Yea, probably (A) if anything. It's only a defensive 3-second violation if he's not near a player. So he didn't have to leave the paint since GP2 was right there.