My predictions for Western Conference standings (I've done this 2 years in a row, in my memory as I can't seem to find my comment - I was fairly accurate 2 years ago and not very accurate at all last year lol but IIRC I've nailed the last 2 Warriors picks at 3 and 6 so I'm continuing with it):
1. Denver: Obvious - Jokic is the best player in the world and he's basically always healthy (well, in a modern NBA sense I suppose). MPJ and Murray should be better compared to their previous regular season, though the lack of depth is a bit worrying. But still, they're way too strong for the rest of the west imo.
2. Pheonix: Controversial? Probably. This feels a little too high for them. If Ja wasn't suspended for his Ja-ness, Memphis would probably be here. But alas. KD is gonna miss some games, Nurkic is probably gonna miss games, but I believe in the rest of their team (and IIRC Booker has been historically fairly healthy?). And I actually like their FA pickups quite a lot (Yuta, Bates-Diop, Gordon). Their defense is gonna be problematic, but they have possibly the best defensive coach in the league in Vogel and in the regular season, their offense might just blow away other teams regardless (I think the defense is gonna come back and haunt them in the playoffs though). This one has obvious bust potential though - top heavy teams are obviously fragile when it comes to injuries.
3. Memphis: They're just a regular season machine. Their core is young and should be better, and Smart and JJJ on the same team is gonna cause havoc defensively. I also trust that Bane's gonna successfully take on more of a creation load so Ja's absence wouldn't be as big a deal. However, the Adams news (along with the Clarke news) is a real gut punch. I do trust in JJJ, Aldama and Tillman though. However, I'd be lying if my confidence for their regular season placement hasn't taken a substantial dive post the Adams news.
4. Lakers: They're fairly deep and they have a great defensive core. On offense, LBJ is the guy but he'll miss games. That'll hurt, but AD/Reaves/Vincent/D'Lo should be able to hold down the fort enough for their defense to win them enough games. They're obviously a better team than the Grizzlies at 100% though, so the reason they're down at 4 is because I'm expecting AD/LBJ to miss time.
5. Warriors: As always, we're a very fragile team due to the uniqueness of Steph/Draymond and how much we depend upon them. Paul might decrease our dependence on Steph a teensy tiny bit, but I think our defense sure as hell needs Draymond operating at somewhere near full capacity. Still, I like our depth a lot. We could finish as high as #2 I think if stuff falls correctly (injuries, player progression from Moody + Kuminga), but I think for an old team like ours it makes more sense to be somewhat conservative with injuries + general travel/rigor of a regular season. Dangerous as hell in the playoffs though (although I doubt we have the adaptability + consistency to win 4 playoff series consecutively in 2024).
6. Clippers: As happens every year, I've no idea where to place them. On talent they're obviously higher, but the if healthy question looms almost monstrously large for them. So I'm placing them here. Could be way off. Who can tell with Kawhi/PG? And who can tell whether they'll get Harden (if nothing, he'll definitely improve them in the regular season at least).
7. OKC: This is very bullish, but I'm a believer. Shai is a superstar, Giddey/JDub are good and really improving, and I loooooooove Chet. He's going to be so good and pretty much exactly what they need. + they have everything to prove and Daigneault is a great coach (RS perspective at least - we'll see in the playoffs).
8. Minnesota Timberwolves: Hmm, this one was difficult. But I had to go with Minny at #8. I think Ant's going to be really good, and McDaniels + Gobert is a hell of a defensive core. KAT's somewhat of a wild card in here, and I think long-term the very very obvious trade is to move him (if they did that, I'd probably be higher on their chances in here if they got back decent talent). But still, Conley and KAT are gonna make the offense hum a little. They have significant upward potential as well, depending on how McDaniels and Ant look this year.
9. Sacramento: Almost seems heretical with how good they looked last year in the regular season + the playoffs, but I think a lot of things went really right for them last year. Their rotation was fully healthy basically to a degree that is very uncommon, and Fox was ultra clutch which is unsustainable probably. The obvious counter-argument is that Keegan Murray is gonna be significantly better, but I just think there's better teams in the west this year. This conference is truly a gauntlet compared to the cakewalk that is the East (well, until the ECF at least).
10. Dallas Mavs: Luka + Kyrie is all I got. If they had a coach I considered top 25, they probably would be #6. But they don't so they languish here. They have Luka, which means a higher finish is obviously possible. But any situation with Kyrie has a lot of bust potential as well.
11. New Orleans Pelicans: This is basically me dinging them for health - Trey Murphy is going to miss the start of the season and he's essential to making their roster work. + Nance has injury questions. And of course, I'm assuming Zion misses a lot of time. If Zion is healthy, they're possibly (probably?) making top 6. But I'm not betting on that if.
12. Houston Rockets: I like their summer - Vanvleet + Brooks + Jeff Green gives them some adults (well, at least 2 of those guys lol) which they desperately needed. I'm expecting substantial growth from Jabari and Sengun as well, and Udoka is a really good coach. And they got rid of KPJ which I think makes them quite a bit better imo.
13. Utah Jazz: I think they'll probably lean towards tanking near the end of the season which is why I have them below Houston. Their roster is fine, and Kessler, Collins, Olynyk and Lauri is a really good frontcourt rotation. But their guards and more importantly their wings just aren't good enough for them to do too much this year.
14. Spurs: They'll have Wemby, but I think he'll be doing a lot of offensive exploration this year. Vassell is always someone I quite like, and the other guys like Keldon and Sochan are fun. But I don't see how they score enough. Obviously Wemby might take them to a higher seed all on his own, but I'm expecting him to have merely an excellent rookie year rather than an earth-shatteringly good one.
15. Portland: Obvious #15 pick. They'll be super fun, but I expect them to trade away guys like Brogdon and maybe even Grant in the trade deadline. And while I love their young guards (Scoot, Simons - Sharpe also exists I suppose), they're not exactly guys that lead to winning just yet (far from it). So fun watch, but bad.
Very reasonable predictions, and not too far off from mine (I have Sac probably too high; you have Memphis probably too high). But predicting the West this year is an exercise in chaos theory.
Last season 4th-10th place were separated by only 5 wins total, which means that the difference between being a contender and barely making the play-in is 5 games, so even one not-that-bad injury could swing it. It would seem unlikely that next season is as even, but when you look at the teams at this point in the season, it suddenly feels very plausible that it's ultra-close again.
I won't even try to predict the outcome. I will just try and enjoy the new talent and rotations of our team hoping for good chemistry and energy. Too many variables to know other teams and how they will settle out. Suffice it to say I'm a bit worried about our Dubs and it's race for grace.
Since predictions are so hard, I might as well swallow 30 marbles with NBA logos painted on them and make my picks in the order they (hopefully) pass. That way I could say “These predictions are from my ass.” and mean it.
When Paul got JK to screen out the weak side low man and thanked him for it, it made me appreciate him. A far cry from “love”, but a step in that direction.
Warriors YT has just released 48 minutes of Warriors highlights to get you hyped for the 2024 season. No, that’s literally the title of the video. Watching now…
While I'm aware the salary cap is on the rise, it's still shocking to see reserve players on middling teams securing $10 to $15 million per year on these rookie extensions.
Jaden McDaniels just got a five-year, $136 million extension, according to Shams. He's a good shooter and a very good defender but still, $27M/year seems like an overpay for a guy who averaged 12 pts last season. That's twice what Ant-Man gets this season.
I love that deal. You're paying for the future production a big two way wing that good at 22 could make that deal a screaming bargain for his 24-28 seasons.
Inflation is real, but oat milk is still relatively low volume and not yet commoditized… and its market is rich people. I’m not surprised it’s hella expensive. If cheap dried pasta starts costing $2/pound, I’ll get scared.
I tolerate a small amount of political talk on this site. Let's keep it respectful and not inflammatory. If you are in doubt, err on the side of restraint.
This is your warning. The next inflammatory post will result in a posting vacation.
Saw Dubs vs. Spurs at Chase Friday. The physicality always hits different in 3D, and this game had bounce. Takeaways:
1. Kuminga fought really hard on defense and rebounds, leaping behind and wrestling in grabs. Not always the most decisive where to be yet, but on track; the effort and focus are way up. Took a defensive turn on Wemby in Q3 and kept him quiet--maybe VW was gassed by then, but JK sure wasn't.
2. Moody's defense held up better than I'd been fearing, thanks to sharp awareness and teamwork. Couldn't always stay in front of quick guys driving from the perimeter, but kept alongside and inside, funneled them right into help. Watched multiple Spurs possessions run aground like this. His three was fire against 3rd string opponents late. I want to see him get midgame run, see if he can earn some lasting minutes from Klay and GPII as a 2nd unit mainstay.
3. Podziemski plays point with a confidence and physicality that jumped out, forcing his way past defenders (admittedly 2nd-3rd stringers) and unleashing chaos with quick decisions. Noticed he got an exceptionally warm hug from Draymond in the pre-game lineup. He sees a baller.
4. Saric is going to be a problem for Dubs opponents. Against a long, strong, quick Spurs team, many of our vets struggled, but Saric kept getting to great spots for threes or quick inside buckets. With Draymond back in our frontcourt, I think we'll have the size and skill to handle teams like this that would be physically tough otherwise.
5. Against these physical Spurs, a missing Garuba was a destiny forsaken...
Who is Joe Viray? Wikipedia does not know he exists. DuckDuckGo mainly features his articles, but has very little about the man himself.
Reading his recent GSOM article on Moody, I’m so impressed by the depth of his knowledge about the intricacies of basketball. Where does that come from?
You can see his bio at the front page of DNHQ under About. He was a writer with us at GSOM which is a site we used to run. Other than that, I will let Joe tell his own story if he wants…
Here’s what chat gpt says (disclaimer: its fiction):
Sure, here's a bio from the perspective of Joe Virray:
"Hey there, I'm Joe Virray, and my journey into the world of basketball knowledge and becoming a die-hard Warriors fan is a tale of passion and data. It all started when I was a young kid growing up in the Bay Area. Basketball was in the air, and I couldn't help but get drawn into the excitement of the game.
As a teenager, I began delving into basketball analytics. I devoured books, stats, and articles, trying to understand the game at a deeper level. It was all about studying the numbers, player efficiency, and the intricacies of strategy. I started tracking player performance, breaking down plays, and even creating my own models to predict game outcomes.
But what truly cemented my loyalty to the Warriors was the rise of the Splash Brothers, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Their three-point shooting revolutionized the game, and I was mesmerized by their skills. It was a thrilling era to be a Warriors fan, and I couldn't get enough of it.
I found myself at the Oracle Arena, now the Chase Center, cheering for the Dubs through thick and thin. From the epic championship runs to the tough seasons, my passion for the Warriors only grew stronger. And in the midst of it all, I continued to analyze the game, joining online communities and sharing my insights with fellow fans.
So, that's how I, Joe Virray, combined my love for basketball analytics and my unwavering support for the Golden State Warriors. It's not just about the wins and losses; it's about the data, the passion, and the indomitable spirit of Dub Nation."
I think everybody is holding onto their guys till the last minute. Aren't there some cuts that might still need to happen? Warriors planning to make their decisions at the very last possible moment, I'm sure.
I did a little bit of googling, and one story said that most cut-downs were expected to be done on Saturday, to avoid paying them regular season salaries (apparently there is a 'notice' clause in their contracts.
So, still a bit of a mystery. But, I'm sure all will be revealed over the next week.
Last year, for sure, but I didn't think it carried into the regular season. I'm sure they are looking at late camp cuts, but I would assume those are mostly done by now.
OK, time for my annual Western Conference predictions. As before, I'm trying to account for "expected value" of injury luck (meaning, teams that are more fragile or susceptible to injuries have their rankings discounted more than teams that should be more resilient, but I'm not outright predicting season-ending injuries to key players even though those unfortunately do happen) and these are predictions of the end-of-season placement, not postseason success.
Last season was hard because it felt like there were about 11 teams in the West that "should" make the playoffs, and this year it's the same. I'm not predicting the East because I just don't watch enough games from those teams to really know what's happening with them, but I wonder if it might be easier because the different tiers are so much more established there.
Anyway, here's what I think.
1. Denver. It's not easy to repeat as champs but Denver has pretty good continuity and their best player makes basketball a fine art. As long as Murray and Jokic are healthy they're pretty much a lock for WCF.
2. Sacramento. This may seem like a hot take, but the regular season is a grind and I can think of no team better positioned to grind out "meaningless" wins than a hungry Kings squad with more continuity, more chemistry, and more of a chip on their shoulder than the team that finished 3rd last season. I'm not sure they beat any of the other top teams in a best of 7, but that's not what this ranking is about.
3. Lakers. I hate having to do this, but this team was pretty good towards the end of last season and in the playoffs. I don't think they need LeBron to be healthy for them to win a lot, just AD. The supporting cast (Reaves, DLo, Hachimura, Vanderbilt, etc.) is that solid.
4. Golden State. We have the most age-related health risk of any team, but we also have a wealth of the smartest and most talented players in the league. I'm betting that the improved focus on togetherness rectifies a lot of the home/road splits we saw last year and the team endures through some tough stretches thanks to contributions up and down the roster.
5. Clippers. Is this the year the Kawhi/PG duo finally materializes? Even if their injury luck is finally on the lighter end, the squad still doesn't quite have the chemistry and "whole product" to turn in an immaculate regular season.
6. Phoenix. Six spots in, five Pacific Division teams. Something's got to give, and my bet is that the thin rotation and inconsistent defensive effort from their stars causes the Suns enough friction to drop this far. Still, this squad has a terrifying ability to earn both buckets and free throws.
7. New Orleans. They have a similar squad to the one that looked extremely strong to start last season, so with good health they could even be a contender. But given Zion's injury history, I'm not sure we can count on that, and there are a lot of other teams that look very scary too.
8. Memphis. They're in for a rough season; the team has played better without Ja several times in the past but they're going to have to sustain that for a third of the season and do without center Steven Adams, too. I'm not sure their coaching staff and organizational maturity is there to perform as well as they did last year, but they still have a deep and well-rounded enough rotation that they should make it into the playoffs regardless.
9. Oklahoma City. This squad is young and coming along quickly enough that they will frequently look like a playoff contender, but they'll also make young-team mistakes often enough that the savvier veteran teams should stay ahead of them. Still, I could see them picking off an injury-weakened team in the play-in to squeeze into the playoffs.
10. Dallas. I think Luka continues to be one of the most over-hyped players in the league; not that he isn't good, but people seem to think he can drag a mediocre Dallas squad into contention, and I don't. I wasn't impressed with Porzingas either, but Kyrie is actually a net-negative to the organization and team unity despite his undeniable individual on-court skills, so this year looks poised to be even worse than last year.
11. Minnesota. Ant-Man is pretty skilled, but the T-Wolves organization doesn't seem good at cultivating winning habits, and the KAT and Gobert frontcourt just does not work. They would have to pull off an impressive trade to make this roster work and Minnesota's front office has an impressively bad trade history so I think they remain in basketball purgatory.
12. Utah. Rebuilding teams are hard to rank against each other because you have to project so much more of young players' development. And to be honest, I think Utah has some great potential with Sexton, Markkanen, and Kessler; and Clarkson is still a real bucket-getter if nothing else.
13. San Antonio. This squad is young and inexperienced, but they play hard and their 1st overall pick looks poised to become the best player in basketball sooner than later. I'm betting they learn some valuable lessons and frighten some teams this year but ultimately are still rebuilding.
14. Portland. Obviously this season is about getting Scott Henderson up to NBA speed and finding out how he fits in the squad; they have enough other guys that I think they can finish above Houston despite having some tough scheduling, but it's close.
15. Houston. The acquisitions of VanVleet and Brooks feel like desperation moves from a team whose young picks are not looking like stars yet. Those and other guys could probably win them some games, but this still feels like a club that's trying to find its identity after the post-Harden blowup.
I don't know enough to do anything beyond a b.s take, beyond the West is stacked, so won't try, but appreciate the list and the reasons (and the responses).
DISCLAIMER: All predictions made herein are the opinions of this individual poster and do not reflect the views of Dub Nation Corporation with whom the poster is allegedly associated.
1. DEN
2. LAL
3. PHX
4. SAC
5. GSW
6. OKC
7. NOP
8. DAL
9. LAC
10. MIN
11. MEM
12. UTA
13. HOU
14. SAS
15. POR
Notes:
- 4-10 slots are going to be all over the place until after ASG. I think Sacramento makes more of a push for home court advantage than GSW, but both pull away by a few games from the rest of that pack, which are just basically toss-ups. It's so stupid to even be making these predictions, honestly.
- I think Memphis falls apart a bit. Too much drama, too much instability.
- No trusting Minnesota unless/until they move KAT.
- This phase of the Clippers just doesn't feel like it's ever going to culminate in something. I think this is the season where it becomes apparent, maybe by February.
- Phoenix is gonna win a lot of regular season games. I think they'll be close with LAL till the end. Totally exploitable in the playoffs but they just have too much talent to not roll through the season.
I'm not great with predictions, but I would not be shocked if any of your top 11 end up with the best record, which is pretty crazy. Well, Dallas would surprise me a bit, but maybe Kyrie is normal-ish for a whole season.
2. Dubs (bench-depth catapults them to an extra 10-12 wins)
3. Phx. (All three will man-up on D and be a force)
4. OKC. (In Shai and Chet I believe)
5. LAC. (strong enough to hold onto the 5th seed through the regular season, but injured once again for the playoffs)
6. LAL. (One of AD/Bron gets injured for half the season)
7. SAC. (Could easily push LOL out of the 6th spot. But I need a second season of seeing them top4 in the West to believe that this isn't their true talent level projection for a season).
8. NOP. (They could also make a push for top4 if everything swings right).
9. MIN (new season - same results - play-in bound again)
10. DAL (Kyrie and Luka hold it together just enough to bounce them into the play-in).
11. MEM (lawl - they may want to think about rebuilding after this season)
12. SAS (I was pretty impressed with what I saw in the preseaon game - but OP is right - all the rebuilding teams are hard to rank)
13. HOU (FVV instills winning basketball habits into the youth?)
14. UTA (ends up trading away whatever they have left that's worth trading).
15. POR (This is where they wanted to be after trading Dame - they got it).
So, I assume we'll get Loon, wiggs, Klay, 30 and 3 as the starters? Wonder how soon before Steve subs out to get more size in. Also, JK should get at least 25 min, right?
Against the Phoenix Suns, the team that Chris Paul probably is angriest today? I'm pretty sure you can multiply your two sets of numbers and get their respective odds.
I’m still hoping Chris sees the value in giving that opportunity to JK… if JK is the starter tomorrow, I’m seeing all kinds of good vibes from the team dynamics.
Oof for all the hot takes I bring to this forum at no extra cost to you, i can truly say that some of you asking Klay to take a contract way below market value is being truly unreasonable
Now with that out of the way, the Sixers could package Harden and Korkmaz for Klay. Slots Harden next to Steph and gives us another frontcourt shooter with that 14th slot in Korkmaz. Gets Klay more prominently featured for his next near max level contract :)
I think this is why he'll end up going to free agency. The Dubs think his market value is $25-30M/year. Klay thinks it's $30-40M/year. Once they find it, the Dubs will sign him to 20% below market unless that's too high for them to get under the second apron. If he does indeed have a market value near $40M, he may end up walking and everyone will say teary farewells. He could also end up acquiescing to a sign&trade in that situation, which would be a really gracious move and help MDJ a ton in compensating for his loss.
I think the Warriors will only sign Klay now at a rate below their perceived market rate. If he doesn't want to give a discount for contract security, he can go to FA and get market rate... whatever that is.
IMO, they're both willing to discount - the question is what market is, and no one will know that until free agency. So they'll go to free agency, figure out market rate, figure out discount off of that, and then the Dubs will decide if they can fit it under the apron. If they can, it's a done deal. If they can't, Klay acquiesces to a sign & trade.
I don't think Klay's really interested in testing the market and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 3 years and $75 million. That'll match Dray and keep the OG together for the sunset. The Dubs paid him big bucks for two seasons that he missed with injuries and I don't think that's lost on Klay.
But, I (and probably others), are also OK with the team playing some hardball.
His last contract was probably more than market value (a max for a guy who was going to be out a year ... the second injury hadn't occurred yet, I believe).
In the long run, good shooter or no, he's close to becoming a 3 and not much D guy. That's a bench player, and not worth $30 mil/yr, or 4 years.
Unlike Steph and maybe Draymond, it's really hard to project him out as a starter 3 - 4 years from now.
Haha! This is an elite fake trade that sort of makes sense but would never happen.
Klay would fit really nice for 76ers. Tyrese can do more on ball, and they used to have a lot of good dribble hand off stuff with Embiid and Redick. Klay can jump right into that and be a better movement/floor spacer guy than Harden.
He probably has about 4 or 5 different market values, depending on the team. For example, a capped out luxury tax laden team looking to get younger for payroll and generational transition purposes, like the Dubs, probably don't see him as valuable as a bottom-dwelling team with 47mill in cap space (ahem, like Detroit).
The regular season starts tomorrow! And apparently we waived Gay and McGruder, so the team has only 13 players. A team is only allowed to be below the 14-man minimum for two weeks over the course of the season, but it does reduce luxury tax payments and we can still re-sign both guys, so it's likely more salary cap maneuvering.
By the way, the team roster can be under 14 for at most two weeks in a row, but they can be under a total of 28 days over the season. And that would probably save quite a few dollars.
So you're saying that they will go two weeks, sign a throw away player, release him, and then go another two weeks before they sign Gay if Gay is still available?
Sign Lester to a non-guaranteed contract or something. He's been in the fold long enough, he'd be happy about the "promotion" even knowing he's likely to get demoted again.
I love Klay and hope he remains a Warrior beyond this year, but there’s really no reason to extend him unless the terms are super friendly.
He’s almost 34 and even though he’s been healthy since he came back he still has an Achilles and ACL injury in the recent rearview. I think it’s that risk factor that’s really holding the team back, because it would be a real disaster to have another major leg injury this season and then have Klay come back as an injured almost 35 with 4 years left on the deal.
Didn't he get a huge payday right after his first injury and got paid to rehab for a few years on that shiny knew contract? Just saying maybe he should take that into consideration.
But if all he wants is to get paid then good luck in your future endeavors.
Klay wants a "Dray like" discount along the lines of a 4 year deal starting at 20% less than his current contract, so around $155M/4 years. The team is offering a "Dray like" contract along the lines of $110M/4 years.
Maybe... if they team can align the contracts of Steph/Dray/Klay, they can negotiate with all 3 at the same time as a batch... probably somewhat disadvantageous to the trio in the negotiations, actually.
saw a tweet suggesting either 2 years + a player option (lining up with Dray… and Wiggs too I guess) or 3 years + a team option (Klay would have the longest extending contract on the team at that point… wow)
Opinion… based on triangulating various reports that Klay will take a discount, but that they’re still far away. It’s really hard to see what contracts are going to look like with the new CBA… $35M/year may look a lot smaller in 2 years… who knows
True. But the operative word there is "may." Given the uncertainty, it's one thing to tie up 35mill in an up-and-coming 25 year old franchise cornerstone through their age 29 year. Its quite another thing to dump 35mill on an on-the-downside FORMER franchise cornerstone for their age 37 year.
It's a huge pay cut for him (37% if my math is correct), and these guys have a lot of pride. From his perspective, he's coming off being the three pointers king and is as valuable as ever.
Almost certainly not. I believe reasonably achievable bonuses just count like salary against the cap. So, the team isn't going to give a lot of those out (they need to get below the 2nd apron).
Those count too, though. Remember JP's # was $140M/4 years, but that included some "unlikely to achieve" incentives, which bumped it down to $123M/4 years in the real world.
It's money, and it's hard for me to criticize a guy for wanting to get paid more.
That said, Klay has made over a quarter of a BILLION in NBA contracts alone. He supposedly making something like $16 million a year in endorsements. At some point, doesn't the money cease to matter so much?
As a fan, I wish he would put the higher value on staying with the Warriors and preserving something that is rarer than any extra money he could earn.
Not quite. If he doesn't get the money and (more important) the years, it gives more flexibility for bringing in other, younger players who can extend the dynasty. Dumping all the money in Klay's lap basically closes the door to winning a title during Curry's career.
I think the days of keeping the salary slot are fast-fading. JK and Moody are going to mature into something like those salary spots. Holding on to an aging former star with a break-the-bank salary would mean overpaying for declining production, and would mean slowly sinking from champ (2021-22) to contender (now) to hoping for luck (1st yr of Klay's new deal) to mediocrity (i.e., not bad enough to have a shot at generational talent). And in the present it would mean sacrificing the ability to remain competitive by paying the role players you need to have a shot at (another) title as the old core's production declines.
Unfortunately not that easy any more with the new CBA. Besides Joe's pockets, it also means no TPE, and other real penalties that hurt their ability to put together a competitive team.
> As a fan, I wish he would put the higher value on staying with the Warriors and preserving something that is rarer than any extra money he could earn.
Why don't you think he puts a high value on this? This is just negotiations. Why should Klay give anything up before he has to? No sense in that, let it play out and see what his market value is.
This. There is no urgency to get it done. If he goes to FA and gets a bag offered, GSW will match it. If the two sides can’t agree on a value, let the market speak. After the season and the associated injury risk.
I think there is *way* more risk for the team to commit to a contract early here… even a setting aside the obvious (and highly precedented in this case) risk of serious injury. The warriors have two guys coming up who, if they continue improving, will have to get paid quite a bit. I’ve already assumed that one of Moody or Kuminga would have to be traded before their next contract, but imagine a scenario(actually not unlikely at all) that either of those guys performs better than Klay this season. As much as I love Klay, it would be beyond negligent to pay the 34 year old and boot the 22 year old for future picks in that case. If Klay balls the hell out, great problem to have… this summer.
Of the three, Klay is far more replaceable than either Steph or Dray. And, Klay's performance is declining faster.
I know he led the league in 3's made last year. However, counting stats are not about efficiency. Klay was 20th in 3pt field goal percentage. Steph was 7th. Buddy Hield, who was second in made 3;s because he made 13 fewer threes than Klay, was 9th in 3pt FG%. Luke Kennard led the league at .494 on 294 three-point attempts. Steph took 639 threes and hit .427. Klay took 731 threes (92 more than Steph) and hit .412. Buddy Hield took 677 threes (54 less than Klay) and made .425 Klay is the most replaceable. Hope it doesn't happen. I want him to retire a Warrior. But he should be careful what he wishes for.
Buddy won't be available for the mini-MLE if Klay walks. Pulling up the 2024 free agents that can be had for $5M, it will be someone like Crowder, Beverly, or Watanabe. With the hope that they can scale up their 3pt shooting volume while maintaining their efficiency.
What about Moody? IoW, Klay can play hardball, but they already have someone who they may feel can replace him. Whether Moody can or can't isn't the issue; the issue is whether the team THINKS Moody will good enough or not. So, Klay may bluster and posture, but he may not be dealing from as strong a position of strength as he seems to think he is.
OR, it could just be negotiating posturing, and he'll get reasonable and thankful and sign a deal that makes sense, instead of seeking a salary cap busting 4-year MAX deal for a player already arguably under-playing his contract.
I am betting that Klay is also more likely than Draymond to get a good offer in free agency because it's obvious what his best skill is and it's not hard for teams to see how that fits into what they do.
Like, both Klay and Draymond have skills that are perfect fits alongside Steph Curry, but Draymond's skills are non-obvious and he comes with a lot more baggage than Klay who's about as good a candidate as you can find if your team is looking for someone to stand around¹ and make threes.
¹ we all know Klay actually runs around but most NBA teams aren't on that level of strategy.
On a YouTube highlights video, the creator made an error. Someone posted that it was an error, and the creator posted this:
"Thank you for your comment. I value your input and your point of view on the NBA Finals MVP award and Stephen Curry’s achievements. You are correct that Andre Iguodala was the NBA Finals MVP in 2015 and Curry was the NBA Finals MVP in 2022. They are both incredible players and deserve praise for their roles in the Warriors’ dynasty."
So then I posted "You sound like ChatGPT. This is how AIs talk." And the creator admitted it! I would now like my kibble reward.
Thank you for bringing this to our attention. We understand that there was a misunderstanding regarding the video highlights and the subsequent exchange in the comments section. While it may have seemed like an unusual interaction, it's important to approach these situations with courtesy and understanding.
We encourage constructive dialogue and feedback, and we appreciate your engagement on the platform. However, we kindly request that we maintain a positive and respectful environment for all members of our community. Let's focus on fostering an atmosphere where we can all share our insights and love for the game.
Should you have any further concerns or feedback, please don't hesitate to reach out to us directly. We value your participation and support in making this community a welcoming and enjoyable place for all.
I do think this whole thing brings up interesting questions about the growing use of AI in sports journalism, broadcasting, stats, everything. I'm sure much of it is already automated.
My Western conference power rankings:
1. Denver
2. Suns
3. Clippers
4. Golden State
5. Lakers
6. Mavs
7. Thunder
8. Kings
9. Grizzlies
10. Pelicans
11. Wolves
12. Jazz
13. Spurs
14. Blazers
15. Rockets
A new NBA season is finally upon us.
My predictions for Western Conference standings (I've done this 2 years in a row, in my memory as I can't seem to find my comment - I was fairly accurate 2 years ago and not very accurate at all last year lol but IIRC I've nailed the last 2 Warriors picks at 3 and 6 so I'm continuing with it):
1. Denver: Obvious - Jokic is the best player in the world and he's basically always healthy (well, in a modern NBA sense I suppose). MPJ and Murray should be better compared to their previous regular season, though the lack of depth is a bit worrying. But still, they're way too strong for the rest of the west imo.
2. Pheonix: Controversial? Probably. This feels a little too high for them. If Ja wasn't suspended for his Ja-ness, Memphis would probably be here. But alas. KD is gonna miss some games, Nurkic is probably gonna miss games, but I believe in the rest of their team (and IIRC Booker has been historically fairly healthy?). And I actually like their FA pickups quite a lot (Yuta, Bates-Diop, Gordon). Their defense is gonna be problematic, but they have possibly the best defensive coach in the league in Vogel and in the regular season, their offense might just blow away other teams regardless (I think the defense is gonna come back and haunt them in the playoffs though). This one has obvious bust potential though - top heavy teams are obviously fragile when it comes to injuries.
3. Memphis: They're just a regular season machine. Their core is young and should be better, and Smart and JJJ on the same team is gonna cause havoc defensively. I also trust that Bane's gonna successfully take on more of a creation load so Ja's absence wouldn't be as big a deal. However, the Adams news (along with the Clarke news) is a real gut punch. I do trust in JJJ, Aldama and Tillman though. However, I'd be lying if my confidence for their regular season placement hasn't taken a substantial dive post the Adams news.
4. Lakers: They're fairly deep and they have a great defensive core. On offense, LBJ is the guy but he'll miss games. That'll hurt, but AD/Reaves/Vincent/D'Lo should be able to hold down the fort enough for their defense to win them enough games. They're obviously a better team than the Grizzlies at 100% though, so the reason they're down at 4 is because I'm expecting AD/LBJ to miss time.
5. Warriors: As always, we're a very fragile team due to the uniqueness of Steph/Draymond and how much we depend upon them. Paul might decrease our dependence on Steph a teensy tiny bit, but I think our defense sure as hell needs Draymond operating at somewhere near full capacity. Still, I like our depth a lot. We could finish as high as #2 I think if stuff falls correctly (injuries, player progression from Moody + Kuminga), but I think for an old team like ours it makes more sense to be somewhat conservative with injuries + general travel/rigor of a regular season. Dangerous as hell in the playoffs though (although I doubt we have the adaptability + consistency to win 4 playoff series consecutively in 2024).
6. Clippers: As happens every year, I've no idea where to place them. On talent they're obviously higher, but the if healthy question looms almost monstrously large for them. So I'm placing them here. Could be way off. Who can tell with Kawhi/PG? And who can tell whether they'll get Harden (if nothing, he'll definitely improve them in the regular season at least).
7. OKC: This is very bullish, but I'm a believer. Shai is a superstar, Giddey/JDub are good and really improving, and I loooooooove Chet. He's going to be so good and pretty much exactly what they need. + they have everything to prove and Daigneault is a great coach (RS perspective at least - we'll see in the playoffs).
8. Minnesota Timberwolves: Hmm, this one was difficult. But I had to go with Minny at #8. I think Ant's going to be really good, and McDaniels + Gobert is a hell of a defensive core. KAT's somewhat of a wild card in here, and I think long-term the very very obvious trade is to move him (if they did that, I'd probably be higher on their chances in here if they got back decent talent). But still, Conley and KAT are gonna make the offense hum a little. They have significant upward potential as well, depending on how McDaniels and Ant look this year.
9. Sacramento: Almost seems heretical with how good they looked last year in the regular season + the playoffs, but I think a lot of things went really right for them last year. Their rotation was fully healthy basically to a degree that is very uncommon, and Fox was ultra clutch which is unsustainable probably. The obvious counter-argument is that Keegan Murray is gonna be significantly better, but I just think there's better teams in the west this year. This conference is truly a gauntlet compared to the cakewalk that is the East (well, until the ECF at least).
10. Dallas Mavs: Luka + Kyrie is all I got. If they had a coach I considered top 25, they probably would be #6. But they don't so they languish here. They have Luka, which means a higher finish is obviously possible. But any situation with Kyrie has a lot of bust potential as well.
11. New Orleans Pelicans: This is basically me dinging them for health - Trey Murphy is going to miss the start of the season and he's essential to making their roster work. + Nance has injury questions. And of course, I'm assuming Zion misses a lot of time. If Zion is healthy, they're possibly (probably?) making top 6. But I'm not betting on that if.
12. Houston Rockets: I like their summer - Vanvleet + Brooks + Jeff Green gives them some adults (well, at least 2 of those guys lol) which they desperately needed. I'm expecting substantial growth from Jabari and Sengun as well, and Udoka is a really good coach. And they got rid of KPJ which I think makes them quite a bit better imo.
13. Utah Jazz: I think they'll probably lean towards tanking near the end of the season which is why I have them below Houston. Their roster is fine, and Kessler, Collins, Olynyk and Lauri is a really good frontcourt rotation. But their guards and more importantly their wings just aren't good enough for them to do too much this year.
14. Spurs: They'll have Wemby, but I think he'll be doing a lot of offensive exploration this year. Vassell is always someone I quite like, and the other guys like Keldon and Sochan are fun. But I don't see how they score enough. Obviously Wemby might take them to a higher seed all on his own, but I'm expecting him to have merely an excellent rookie year rather than an earth-shatteringly good one.
15. Portland: Obvious #15 pick. They'll be super fun, but I expect them to trade away guys like Brogdon and maybe even Grant in the trade deadline. And while I love their young guards (Scoot, Simons - Sharpe also exists I suppose), they're not exactly guys that lead to winning just yet (far from it). So fun watch, but bad.
Very reasonable predictions, and not too far off from mine (I have Sac probably too high; you have Memphis probably too high). But predicting the West this year is an exercise in chaos theory.
Last season 4th-10th place were separated by only 5 wins total, which means that the difference between being a contender and barely making the play-in is 5 games, so even one not-that-bad injury could swing it. It would seem unlikely that next season is as even, but when you look at the teams at this point in the season, it suddenly feels very plausible that it's ultra-close again.
I won't even try to predict the outcome. I will just try and enjoy the new talent and rotations of our team hoping for good chemistry and energy. Too many variables to know other teams and how they will settle out. Suffice it to say I'm a bit worried about our Dubs and it's race for grace.
Since predictions are so hard, I might as well swallow 30 marbles with NBA logos painted on them and make my picks in the order they (hopefully) pass. That way I could say “These predictions are from my ass.” and mean it.
I'm not picking up anything around your house.
Pictures, please...
Is it wrong that I already love Chris Paul?
It makes me feel so… dirty.
Just watch the replay of the fake laugh with Kerr and you can readjust your view of CP3.
Yes. Yes it is. I'm optimistic but that is a fry cry from loving him.
But once he comes off the bench and extends the lead with JK more than steph did with starters I'll be right behind you.
Let's hope that this is a regular thing.
When Paul got JK to screen out the weak side low man and thanked him for it, it made me appreciate him. A far cry from “love”, but a step in that direction.
Same, and with joy. MAde my cold black heart melt just a little.
ditto. I didn't know he actually had that level of enjoyment/appreciation in him
Warriors YT has just released 48 minutes of Warriors highlights to get you hyped for the 2024 season. No, that’s literally the title of the video. Watching now…
https://youtu.be/_eVKGJ1g_Cc?si=SoN01kUB954QMWgw
Hyped. Gonna be go great to have Wiggins back. That behind the back yank to a smooth mid-range he threw down was so nasty.
That's a Ritter too far for me. But, I will be interested in what people say about it.
Watched for a bit until the wife came home.
Hyped!
Ditto
While I'm aware the salary cap is on the rise, it's still shocking to see reserve players on middling teams securing $10 to $15 million per year on these rookie extensions.
Jaden McDaniels just got a five-year, $136 million extension, according to Shams. He's a good shooter and a very good defender but still, $27M/year seems like an overpay for a guy who averaged 12 pts last season. That's twice what Ant-Man gets this season.
I love that deal. You're paying for the future production a big two way wing that good at 22 could make that deal a screaming bargain for his 24-28 seasons.
This. Agreed.
Not to mention the cap bump coming into play…
Josh Green at 14m a year makes me lol
Less than $4 for organic oat milk here..
Inflation is real, but oat milk is still relatively low volume and not yet commoditized… and its market is rich people. I’m not surprised it’s hella expensive. If cheap dried pasta starts costing $2/pound, I’ll get scared.
Wait, what does cheap dried pasta cost you? When I see 1lb boxes of pasta on sale for $2 I'm relieved to get a deal!
At Trader Joe's or Lucky, you should be able to find spaghetti for $1 or $1.25 still, I think... places like Safeway def charge way more tho.
Millionaires are closer to us than they are to billionaires. For whatever thats worth.
I tolerate a small amount of political talk on this site. Let's keep it respectful and not inflammatory. If you are in doubt, err on the side of restraint.
This is your warning. The next inflammatory post will result in a posting vacation.
That’s an absolutely ridiculous thing to write.
Yeah, nobody killed a billionaire using a bone club!
You can't milk an oat!
Saw Dubs vs. Spurs at Chase Friday. The physicality always hits different in 3D, and this game had bounce. Takeaways:
1. Kuminga fought really hard on defense and rebounds, leaping behind and wrestling in grabs. Not always the most decisive where to be yet, but on track; the effort and focus are way up. Took a defensive turn on Wemby in Q3 and kept him quiet--maybe VW was gassed by then, but JK sure wasn't.
2. Moody's defense held up better than I'd been fearing, thanks to sharp awareness and teamwork. Couldn't always stay in front of quick guys driving from the perimeter, but kept alongside and inside, funneled them right into help. Watched multiple Spurs possessions run aground like this. His three was fire against 3rd string opponents late. I want to see him get midgame run, see if he can earn some lasting minutes from Klay and GPII as a 2nd unit mainstay.
3. Podziemski plays point with a confidence and physicality that jumped out, forcing his way past defenders (admittedly 2nd-3rd stringers) and unleashing chaos with quick decisions. Noticed he got an exceptionally warm hug from Draymond in the pre-game lineup. He sees a baller.
4. Saric is going to be a problem for Dubs opponents. Against a long, strong, quick Spurs team, many of our vets struggled, but Saric kept getting to great spots for threes or quick inside buckets. With Draymond back in our frontcourt, I think we'll have the size and skill to handle teams like this that would be physically tough otherwise.
5. Against these physical Spurs, a missing Garuba was a destiny forsaken...
Who is Joe Viray? Wikipedia does not know he exists. DuckDuckGo mainly features his articles, but has very little about the man himself.
Reading his recent GSOM article on Moody, I’m so impressed by the depth of his knowledge about the intricacies of basketball. Where does that come from?
But who is he?
You can see his bio at the front page of DNHQ under About. He was a writer with us at GSOM which is a site we used to run. Other than that, I will let Joe tell his own story if he wants…
I’ve been impressed by Joe’s growth as a writer/analyst. Lots of hard work (on top of natural talent, of course).
Thank you. I was only interested to know where he got his knowledge of basketball.
I think he is an assistant to Coach "Eric Apricot" Kerr.
Here’s what chat gpt says (disclaimer: its fiction):
Sure, here's a bio from the perspective of Joe Virray:
"Hey there, I'm Joe Virray, and my journey into the world of basketball knowledge and becoming a die-hard Warriors fan is a tale of passion and data. It all started when I was a young kid growing up in the Bay Area. Basketball was in the air, and I couldn't help but get drawn into the excitement of the game.
As a teenager, I began delving into basketball analytics. I devoured books, stats, and articles, trying to understand the game at a deeper level. It was all about studying the numbers, player efficiency, and the intricacies of strategy. I started tracking player performance, breaking down plays, and even creating my own models to predict game outcomes.
But what truly cemented my loyalty to the Warriors was the rise of the Splash Brothers, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Their three-point shooting revolutionized the game, and I was mesmerized by their skills. It was a thrilling era to be a Warriors fan, and I couldn't get enough of it.
I found myself at the Oracle Arena, now the Chase Center, cheering for the Dubs through thick and thin. From the epic championship runs to the tough seasons, my passion for the Warriors only grew stronger. And in the midst of it all, I continued to analyze the game, joining online communities and sharing my insights with fellow fans.
So, that's how I, Joe Virray, combined my love for basketball analytics and my unwavering support for the Golden State Warriors. It's not just about the wins and losses; it's about the data, the passion, and the indomitable spirit of Dub Nation."
Is it me, or does it seem a little weird that one day before the regular season, we still don't have a clue what's going on with the two ways?
Is Robinson really going to keep that third 2-way? And, while I think Lester 'Onions' keeps his spot, even that is not cut-and-dried, IMHO.
On the other hand, this year’s regular roster looks a lot more playable than last year’s.
I think everybody is holding onto their guys till the last minute. Aren't there some cuts that might still need to happen? Warriors planning to make their decisions at the very last possible moment, I'm sure.
I did a little bit of googling, and one story said that most cut-downs were expected to be done on Saturday, to avoid paying them regular season salaries (apparently there is a 'notice' clause in their contracts.
So, still a bit of a mystery. But, I'm sure all will be revealed over the next week.
Given that we don't even know who's going to fill in the 14th roster, spot, uncertainty around the two-ways is understandable.
I think there were a lack of great candidates this year. So JR keeps his spot by default unless something better comes along.
Didn't they decide their 2-ways fairly late the last couple of years as well?
Last year, for sure, but I didn't think it carried into the regular season. I'm sure they are looking at late camp cuts, but I would assume those are mostly done by now.
OK, time for my annual Western Conference predictions. As before, I'm trying to account for "expected value" of injury luck (meaning, teams that are more fragile or susceptible to injuries have their rankings discounted more than teams that should be more resilient, but I'm not outright predicting season-ending injuries to key players even though those unfortunately do happen) and these are predictions of the end-of-season placement, not postseason success.
Last season was hard because it felt like there were about 11 teams in the West that "should" make the playoffs, and this year it's the same. I'm not predicting the East because I just don't watch enough games from those teams to really know what's happening with them, but I wonder if it might be easier because the different tiers are so much more established there.
Anyway, here's what I think.
1. Denver. It's not easy to repeat as champs but Denver has pretty good continuity and their best player makes basketball a fine art. As long as Murray and Jokic are healthy they're pretty much a lock for WCF.
2. Sacramento. This may seem like a hot take, but the regular season is a grind and I can think of no team better positioned to grind out "meaningless" wins than a hungry Kings squad with more continuity, more chemistry, and more of a chip on their shoulder than the team that finished 3rd last season. I'm not sure they beat any of the other top teams in a best of 7, but that's not what this ranking is about.
3. Lakers. I hate having to do this, but this team was pretty good towards the end of last season and in the playoffs. I don't think they need LeBron to be healthy for them to win a lot, just AD. The supporting cast (Reaves, DLo, Hachimura, Vanderbilt, etc.) is that solid.
4. Golden State. We have the most age-related health risk of any team, but we also have a wealth of the smartest and most talented players in the league. I'm betting that the improved focus on togetherness rectifies a lot of the home/road splits we saw last year and the team endures through some tough stretches thanks to contributions up and down the roster.
5. Clippers. Is this the year the Kawhi/PG duo finally materializes? Even if their injury luck is finally on the lighter end, the squad still doesn't quite have the chemistry and "whole product" to turn in an immaculate regular season.
6. Phoenix. Six spots in, five Pacific Division teams. Something's got to give, and my bet is that the thin rotation and inconsistent defensive effort from their stars causes the Suns enough friction to drop this far. Still, this squad has a terrifying ability to earn both buckets and free throws.
7. New Orleans. They have a similar squad to the one that looked extremely strong to start last season, so with good health they could even be a contender. But given Zion's injury history, I'm not sure we can count on that, and there are a lot of other teams that look very scary too.
8. Memphis. They're in for a rough season; the team has played better without Ja several times in the past but they're going to have to sustain that for a third of the season and do without center Steven Adams, too. I'm not sure their coaching staff and organizational maturity is there to perform as well as they did last year, but they still have a deep and well-rounded enough rotation that they should make it into the playoffs regardless.
9. Oklahoma City. This squad is young and coming along quickly enough that they will frequently look like a playoff contender, but they'll also make young-team mistakes often enough that the savvier veteran teams should stay ahead of them. Still, I could see them picking off an injury-weakened team in the play-in to squeeze into the playoffs.
10. Dallas. I think Luka continues to be one of the most over-hyped players in the league; not that he isn't good, but people seem to think he can drag a mediocre Dallas squad into contention, and I don't. I wasn't impressed with Porzingas either, but Kyrie is actually a net-negative to the organization and team unity despite his undeniable individual on-court skills, so this year looks poised to be even worse than last year.
11. Minnesota. Ant-Man is pretty skilled, but the T-Wolves organization doesn't seem good at cultivating winning habits, and the KAT and Gobert frontcourt just does not work. They would have to pull off an impressive trade to make this roster work and Minnesota's front office has an impressively bad trade history so I think they remain in basketball purgatory.
12. Utah. Rebuilding teams are hard to rank against each other because you have to project so much more of young players' development. And to be honest, I think Utah has some great potential with Sexton, Markkanen, and Kessler; and Clarkson is still a real bucket-getter if nothing else.
13. San Antonio. This squad is young and inexperienced, but they play hard and their 1st overall pick looks poised to become the best player in basketball sooner than later. I'm betting they learn some valuable lessons and frighten some teams this year but ultimately are still rebuilding.
14. Portland. Obviously this season is about getting Scott Henderson up to NBA speed and finding out how he fits in the squad; they have enough other guys that I think they can finish above Houston despite having some tough scheduling, but it's close.
15. Houston. The acquisitions of VanVleet and Brooks feel like desperation moves from a team whose young picks are not looking like stars yet. Those and other guys could probably win them some games, but this still feels like a club that's trying to find its identity after the post-Harden blowup.
I don't know enough to do anything beyond a b.s take, beyond the West is stacked, so won't try, but appreciate the list and the reasons (and the responses).
Impossible to predict this wacky conference, but here's a bunch of hot takes.
1. Phoenix
2. Denver
3. Minnesota
4. Golden State
5. LA Lakers
6. Sacramento
7. Oklahoma City
8. New Orleans
9. LA Clippers
10. Memphis
11. San Antonio
12. Dallas
13. Houston
14. Utah
15. San Antonio
Pretty different from mine and yet plausible. Minnesota at #3 and Clippers at #9 is too hot for me though
It's hard to construct western standings that are implausible, short of Portland finishing in the playoffs and Denver finishing outside them.
2 big disagreements:
Kings had crazy good injury luck last year and didn't get much better in the offseason. Wolves were actually pretty good with KAT healthy.
1. Denver
2. Phoenix
3. GSW
4. Lakers
5. Minnesota
6. Dallas
7. OKC
8. Memphis
9. Kings
10. Clippers
11. Pels
12. SAS
13. Utah
14. Houston
15. Portland
I like your points about SAC. And I wouldn't be shocked if they ended up #1. Denver and the four teams below all have some form of age/health issues.
1. Warriors
2. Nuggets
3. Minnesota
4. Suns
5. Lakers
6. Sacramento
7. Memphis
8. Dallas
9. Clippers
10. OKC
11. New Orleans
12. Spurs
13. Rockets
14. Utah
15. Portland
1) Warriors if Steph is healthy for the entire season
2) Nuggets
3) Suns
4) Clippers PG and Kawhi finally both healthy
5) Kings
6) Pelicans - it is a all about Zion actually being available
7) Lakers - because AD and LeBron will miss a lot of games
8) Thunder - they will probably be good enough that they pull off a mid season trade
9) Timberwolves - they just seem like a fringy playoff team
10) Mavericks - can't see that they have improved any from last year
11) Grizzlies - stars missing too much time
12) Spurs - Wembanyama can't do it all by himself
13) Trailblazers - though I'm not sure they aren't actually better with an available Scoot than they were with an injured Dame
14) Rockets- I don't even see what the process is
15) Jazz - they aren't going to really even try to win this year
You could probably shuffle 6-12 in any order this season
DISCLAIMER: All predictions made herein are the opinions of this individual poster and do not reflect the views of Dub Nation Corporation with whom the poster is allegedly associated.
1. DEN
2. LAL
3. PHX
4. SAC
5. GSW
6. OKC
7. NOP
8. DAL
9. LAC
10. MIN
11. MEM
12. UTA
13. HOU
14. SAS
15. POR
Notes:
- 4-10 slots are going to be all over the place until after ASG. I think Sacramento makes more of a push for home court advantage than GSW, but both pull away by a few games from the rest of that pack, which are just basically toss-ups. It's so stupid to even be making these predictions, honestly.
- I think Memphis falls apart a bit. Too much drama, too much instability.
- No trusting Minnesota unless/until they move KAT.
- This phase of the Clippers just doesn't feel like it's ever going to culminate in something. I think this is the season where it becomes apparent, maybe by February.
- Phoenix is gonna win a lot of regular season games. I think they'll be close with LAL till the end. Totally exploitable in the playoffs but they just have too much talent to not roll through the season.
I'm not great with predictions, but I would not be shocked if any of your top 11 end up with the best record, which is pretty crazy. Well, Dallas would surprise me a bit, but maybe Kyrie is normal-ish for a whole season.
OK. Let's see how I do.
1. Denver
2. Dubs (bench-depth catapults them to an extra 10-12 wins)
3. Phx. (All three will man-up on D and be a force)
4. OKC. (In Shai and Chet I believe)
5. LAC. (strong enough to hold onto the 5th seed through the regular season, but injured once again for the playoffs)
6. LAL. (One of AD/Bron gets injured for half the season)
7. SAC. (Could easily push LOL out of the 6th spot. But I need a second season of seeing them top4 in the West to believe that this isn't their true talent level projection for a season).
8. NOP. (They could also make a push for top4 if everything swings right).
9. MIN (new season - same results - play-in bound again)
10. DAL (Kyrie and Luka hold it together just enough to bounce them into the play-in).
11. MEM (lawl - they may want to think about rebuilding after this season)
12. SAS (I was pretty impressed with what I saw in the preseaon game - but OP is right - all the rebuilding teams are hard to rank)
13. HOU (FVV instills winning basketball habits into the youth?)
14. UTA (ends up trading away whatever they have left that's worth trading).
15. POR (This is where they wanted to be after trading Dame - they got it).
I'll bite. For posterity's sake:
1. Denver
2. Lakers
3. OKC
4. GSW
5. PHX
6. Sac
7. Min
8. Memphis
9. LAC
10. Dallas
11. Nawlins
12. Utah
13. Houston
14. Portland
15. SAS
#1 in our hearts!
https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1716550432192151867
Draymond ruled out tomorrow. As expected. He was cleared for 5 on 5 on Saturday. No way he's going to be able to get into game shape that fast.
So, I assume we'll get Loon, wiggs, Klay, 30 and 3 as the starters? Wonder how soon before Steve subs out to get more size in. Also, JK should get at least 25 min, right?
I would not be too shocked to see JK start in place of Draymond. I expect a heavy dose of Moody and JK tomorrow
I will say... 65% chance 3 starts, 35% chance 00 starts.
Against the Phoenix Suns, the team that Chris Paul probably is angriest today? I'm pretty sure you can multiply your two sets of numbers and get their respective odds.
You're suggesting: 195% chance that 3 starts and 0% chance that 00 starts?
Sounds right to my magic eight ball for Tuesday. Mid-season, I might buy your odds.
I’m still hoping Chris sees the value in giving that opportunity to JK… if JK is the starter tomorrow, I’m seeing all kinds of good vibes from the team dynamics.
Oof for all the hot takes I bring to this forum at no extra cost to you, i can truly say that some of you asking Klay to take a contract way below market value is being truly unreasonable
Now with that out of the way, the Sixers could package Harden and Korkmaz for Klay. Slots Harden next to Steph and gives us another frontcourt shooter with that 14th slot in Korkmaz. Gets Klay more prominently featured for his next near max level contract :)
I think everyone’s cool with him angling for market value, give or take. But his market value in his mid-30s is kind of a tricky thing to gauge.
I think this is why he'll end up going to free agency. The Dubs think his market value is $25-30M/year. Klay thinks it's $30-40M/year. Once they find it, the Dubs will sign him to 20% below market unless that's too high for them to get under the second apron. If he does indeed have a market value near $40M, he may end up walking and everyone will say teary farewells. He could also end up acquiescing to a sign&trade in that situation, which would be a really gracious move and help MDJ a ton in compensating for his loss.
I think the Warriors will only sign Klay now at a rate below their perceived market rate. If he doesn't want to give a discount for contract security, he can go to FA and get market rate... whatever that is.
IMO, they're both willing to discount - the question is what market is, and no one will know that until free agency. So they'll go to free agency, figure out market rate, figure out discount off of that, and then the Dubs will decide if they can fit it under the apron. If they can, it's a done deal. If they can't, Klay acquiesces to a sign & trade.
I don't think Klay's really interested in testing the market and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 3 years and $75 million. That'll match Dray and keep the OG together for the sunset. The Dubs paid him big bucks for two seasons that he missed with injuries and I don't think that's lost on Klay.
It's really his last chance to get a big contract, and thus his last opportunity to leverage for income.
But, I (and probably others), are also OK with the team playing some hardball.
His last contract was probably more than market value (a max for a guy who was going to be out a year ... the second injury hadn't occurred yet, I believe).
In the long run, good shooter or no, he's close to becoming a 3 and not much D guy. That's a bench player, and not worth $30 mil/yr, or 4 years.
Unlike Steph and maybe Draymond, it's really hard to project him out as a starter 3 - 4 years from now.
Haha! This is an elite fake trade that sort of makes sense but would never happen.
Klay would fit really nice for 76ers. Tyrese can do more on ball, and they used to have a lot of good dribble hand off stuff with Embiid and Redick. Klay can jump right into that and be a better movement/floor spacer guy than Harden.
and Harden could really help with the Dubs' foul differential problems! Plus he has experience playing next to Chris Paul
Then if we got Blake Griffen and Patrick Beverley we’d have the Full “Folks I hated on the other team” Squad…
Just gotta lock DeAndre Jordan in an apartment so he doesn't get away.
Tell him it’s a Mr. Beast video and the person who stays longest gets to join the banana boat…?
Can we also get Dillon Brooks while we're at it?
Next 5 years are Pat Bev’s too
Sure, contract fits with Wiggins straight up… who says no?
Ooohhh! Tell us what is Klay’s market value!
He probably has about 4 or 5 different market values, depending on the team. For example, a capped out luxury tax laden team looking to get younger for payroll and generational transition purposes, like the Dubs, probably don't see him as valuable as a bottom-dwelling team with 47mill in cap space (ahem, like Detroit).
Please, we weren't serious about constructing a Top Warriors Villains roster
If you can beat them... Recruit them?
The regular season starts tomorrow! And apparently we waived Gay and McGruder, so the team has only 13 players. A team is only allowed to be below the 14-man minimum for two weeks over the course of the season, but it does reduce luxury tax payments and we can still re-sign both guys, so it's likely more salary cap maneuvering.
By the way, the team roster can be under 14 for at most two weeks in a row, but they can be under a total of 28 days over the season. And that would probably save quite a few dollars.
So you're saying that they will go two weeks, sign a throw away player, release him, and then go another two weeks before they sign Gay if Gay is still available?
Sign Lester to a non-guaranteed contract or something. He's been in the fold long enough, he'd be happy about the "promotion" even knowing he's likely to get demoted again.
I was gonna write that myself and then didn't because it sounds so ridiculous.
think I read somewhere that they made the two week limit cumulative to crack down on that sort of cap gamesmanship
but I can't remember *where* I read that at the moment, so grains of salt & all that
Shams and Slater on Klay:
https://theathletic.com/4989979/2023/10/23/klay-thompson-warriors-contract-negotiations/?source=user_shared_article
Here’s what you need to know:
There is a “significant gap” in the years and money, with Thompson wanting much more than what the Warriors have offered, the sources said.
Negotiations between the two sides are at a dead point, and Golden State could let Thompson hit free agency next summer.
Thompson, 32, is entering his 13th season with the Warriors after the franchise drafted him as the 11th pick in 2011.
I love Klay and hope he remains a Warrior beyond this year, but there’s really no reason to extend him unless the terms are super friendly.
He’s almost 34 and even though he’s been healthy since he came back he still has an Achilles and ACL injury in the recent rearview. I think it’s that risk factor that’s really holding the team back, because it would be a real disaster to have another major leg injury this season and then have Klay come back as an injured almost 35 with 4 years left on the deal.
Didn't he get a huge payday right after his first injury and got paid to rehab for a few years on that shiny knew contract? Just saying maybe he should take that into consideration.
But if all he wants is to get paid then good luck in your future endeavors.
Klay wants a "Dray like" discount along the lines of a 4 year deal starting at 20% less than his current contract, so around $155M/4 years. The team is offering a "Dray like" contract along the lines of $110M/4 years.
EDIT: this is an opinion
rumor (thinly sourced) on ex-twitter was that team was offering him a shorter deal (like 2 years) & Klay wanted a longer one (like 4)
Maybe... if they team can align the contracts of Steph/Dray/Klay, they can negotiate with all 3 at the same time as a batch... probably somewhat disadvantageous to the trio in the negotiations, actually.
saw a tweet suggesting either 2 years + a player option (lining up with Dray… and Wiggs too I guess) or 3 years + a team option (Klay would have the longest extending contract on the team at that point… wow)
You state that like it is a fact. Do you have a source for it? Or is it an opinion?
Opinion… based on triangulating various reports that Klay will take a discount, but that they’re still far away. It’s really hard to see what contracts are going to look like with the new CBA… $35M/year may look a lot smaller in 2 years… who knows
True. But the operative word there is "may." Given the uncertainty, it's one thing to tie up 35mill in an up-and-coming 25 year old franchise cornerstone through their age 29 year. Its quite another thing to dump 35mill on an on-the-downside FORMER franchise cornerstone for their age 37 year.
It's a huge pay cut for him (37% if my math is correct), and these guys have a lot of pride. From his perspective, he's coming off being the three pointers king and is as valuable as ever.
He can make up the difference with xxxxx xxxxxxxxxx endorsements.
Almost certainly not. I believe reasonably achievable bonuses just count like salary against the cap. So, the team isn't going to give a lot of those out (they need to get below the 2nd apron).
Those count too, though. Remember JP's # was $140M/4 years, but that included some "unlikely to achieve" incentives, which bumped it down to $123M/4 years in the real world.
It's money, and it's hard for me to criticize a guy for wanting to get paid more.
That said, Klay has made over a quarter of a BILLION in NBA contracts alone. He supposedly making something like $16 million a year in endorsements. At some point, doesn't the money cease to matter so much?
As a fan, I wish he would put the higher value on staying with the Warriors and preserving something that is rarer than any extra money he could earn.
If Klay doesn't get the money then it just goes into Lacob & co's pockets. If its one or the other, I'm going with Klay every time.
Not quite. If he doesn't get the money and (more important) the years, it gives more flexibility for bringing in other, younger players who can extend the dynasty. Dumping all the money in Klay's lap basically closes the door to winning a title during Curry's career.
Not really. They have to pay to keep the salary slot going. Then they could trade if they wanted.
I think the days of keeping the salary slot are fast-fading. JK and Moody are going to mature into something like those salary spots. Holding on to an aging former star with a break-the-bank salary would mean overpaying for declining production, and would mean slowly sinking from champ (2021-22) to contender (now) to hoping for luck (1st yr of Klay's new deal) to mediocrity (i.e., not bad enough to have a shot at generational talent). And in the present it would mean sacrificing the ability to remain competitive by paying the role players you need to have a shot at (another) title as the old core's production declines.
Uhh, winning *another* title, right?
Yeah, another one. (I guess my post goes in the "What have you done for me lately?" file.
Unfortunately not that easy any more with the new CBA. Besides Joe's pockets, it also means no TPE, and other real penalties that hurt their ability to put together a competitive team.
Klay was also paid handsomely for the two years he did not play due to his injury. Hopefully, he takes that into consideration.
> As a fan, I wish he would put the higher value on staying with the Warriors and preserving something that is rarer than any extra money he could earn.
Why don't you think he puts a high value on this? This is just negotiations. Why should Klay give anything up before he has to? No sense in that, let it play out and see what his market value is.
> Golden State could let Thompson hit free agency next summer.
Happened with Draymond, will almost certainly happen with Klay.
I'm pretty sure the '22-23 articles about Dray's contract situation have already been repurposed and queued up for '23-24.
"ChatGPT write me an article about Klay's upcoming FA baselined against Draymond's situation last year"
This. There is no urgency to get it done. If he goes to FA and gets a bag offered, GSW will match it. If the two sides can’t agree on a value, let the market speak. After the season and the associated injury risk.
Leaving in FA probably helps the Dubs to a degree.
Once they get under the 2nd apron, they start having some options to fill out the roster (mini-MLE).
If Moody continues to improve, and Klay continues to hold out for more, I think they'd take that risk.
I think there is *way* more risk for the team to commit to a contract early here… even a setting aside the obvious (and highly precedented in this case) risk of serious injury. The warriors have two guys coming up who, if they continue improving, will have to get paid quite a bit. I’ve already assumed that one of Moody or Kuminga would have to be traded before their next contract, but imagine a scenario(actually not unlikely at all) that either of those guys performs better than Klay this season. As much as I love Klay, it would be beyond negligent to pay the 34 year old and boot the 22 year old for future picks in that case. If Klay balls the hell out, great problem to have… this summer.
Corollary point: What if Chris Paul is incredible… yikes.
Of the three, Klay is far more replaceable than either Steph or Dray. And, Klay's performance is declining faster.
I know he led the league in 3's made last year. However, counting stats are not about efficiency. Klay was 20th in 3pt field goal percentage. Steph was 7th. Buddy Hield, who was second in made 3;s because he made 13 fewer threes than Klay, was 9th in 3pt FG%. Luke Kennard led the league at .494 on 294 three-point attempts. Steph took 639 threes and hit .427. Klay took 731 threes (92 more than Steph) and hit .412. Buddy Hield took 677 threes (54 less than Klay) and made .425 Klay is the most replaceable. Hope it doesn't happen. I want him to retire a Warrior. But he should be careful what he wishes for.
Buddy won't be available for the mini-MLE if Klay walks. Pulling up the 2024 free agents that can be had for $5M, it will be someone like Crowder, Beverly, or Watanabe. With the hope that they can scale up their 3pt shooting volume while maintaining their efficiency.
What about Moody? IoW, Klay can play hardball, but they already have someone who they may feel can replace him. Whether Moody can or can't isn't the issue; the issue is whether the team THINKS Moody will good enough or not. So, Klay may bluster and posture, but he may not be dealing from as strong a position of strength as he seems to think he is.
OR, it could just be negotiating posturing, and he'll get reasonable and thankful and sign a deal that makes sense, instead of seeking a salary cap busting 4-year MAX deal for a player already arguably under-playing his contract.
I am betting that Klay is also more likely than Draymond to get a good offer in free agency because it's obvious what his best skill is and it's not hard for teams to see how that fits into what they do.
Like, both Klay and Draymond have skills that are perfect fits alongside Steph Curry, but Draymond's skills are non-obvious and he comes with a lot more baggage than Klay who's about as good a candidate as you can find if your team is looking for someone to stand around¹ and make threes.
¹ we all know Klay actually runs around but most NBA teams aren't on that level of strategy.
Yes but Klay is 100% more Klay than any of those guys
#TeamKlayStay
That would be a three-year deal to match Dray's timeline, with the last year a player option.
The Dubs and Klay will count it! 😊
On a YouTube highlights video, the creator made an error. Someone posted that it was an error, and the creator posted this:
"Thank you for your comment. I value your input and your point of view on the NBA Finals MVP award and Stephen Curry’s achievements. You are correct that Andre Iguodala was the NBA Finals MVP in 2015 and Curry was the NBA Finals MVP in 2022. They are both incredible players and deserve praise for their roles in the Warriors’ dynasty."
So then I posted "You sound like ChatGPT. This is how AIs talk." And the creator admitted it! I would now like my kibble reward.
Dear [Reader's Name],
Thank you for bringing this to our attention. We understand that there was a misunderstanding regarding the video highlights and the subsequent exchange in the comments section. While it may have seemed like an unusual interaction, it's important to approach these situations with courtesy and understanding.
We encourage constructive dialogue and feedback, and we appreciate your engagement on the platform. However, we kindly request that we maintain a positive and respectful environment for all members of our community. Let's focus on fostering an atmosphere where we can all share our insights and love for the game.
Should you have any further concerns or feedback, please don't hesitate to reach out to us directly. We value your participation and support in making this community a welcoming and enjoyable place for all.
Best regards,
[Your Name]
[Website Name] Moderator
LOL well done.
I do think this whole thing brings up interesting questions about the growing use of AI in sports journalism, broadcasting, stats, everything. I'm sure much of it is already automated.
Translation: "Scram, Sam!"
Draymond is right on about the importance of communication when it comes to defense.