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Dec 17, 2020Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

Let's talk a bit more about the middle of the bench and/or the starting spots, since those probably matter more than the 15th slot (though I expect Kerr to use at least a dozen guys every night). Also, with Covid absences, every team in the league will probably have way more starting lineups than usual and will have to go deeper into the bench too.

Ranked by expected amounts of important minutes (including two 2-way slots):

1-2. Steph and Dray will start every game and play ~30m/gm apiece unless something awful happens.

3. Wiggins is the obvious next guy up but I could see him getting nudged into more of a 2nd-unit role if one of the young'uns is coming along.

4-5. Oubre and Bazemore will get reliable minutes and I expect one or the other to start every game. More likely Oubre gets the start but Bazemore plays in crunch time. But either one of these guys could get bumped below the bench mob

6-8. One of Looney, Wiseman, and Chriss will start at center just about every game; the other two should get solid rotation minutes. They're behind the guys above mostly because they're splitting the center spot 3 ways. Looney is most likely to be in crunch time minutes because he doesn't really make mistakes, and mistakes in crunch time kill you. (Doubtlessly Kerr will give Wiseman a few "learning opportunities" in crunch time.)

9-12. Paschall, Wanamaker, Poole, Lee all get slotted into the 2nd unit (i.e. when Curry sits) based on matchup and the fit with the other guys above. Paschall probably gets the most pts/36 but his defense has to not suck; Wanamaker has the opposite problem. Lee is probably the best player out of these guys right now but with the least room for improvement, so his standing probably depends on how much the Warriors need someone who can be "good enough" immediately vs. developing for later. Poole could move out of this slot in either direction; if he gets hot, he displaces Baze/Oubre; if he's as cold as last year he'll be wondering if the G-League has a season.

13-16. The end of the bench. Whoever these guys are, they'll get garbage time minutes, and injury-replacement minutes, and that's... about it. Smiley, Mulder, JTA, and Mannion basically have a lock on these spots but it's a toss-up who's on a proper NBA contract and who isn't. Also, if the team uses the DPE or even reserves a roster slot for it, one of them is getting fully cut. They don't really overlap on positions, so who you want to keep depends most on who's injured or out sick. That's not a calculus I want to make.

17. Klay won't play. 😒

tl;dr I'm expecting opening day first-string lineup to be (by position):

1. Steph

2. Oubre (start) β†’ Bazemore (crunch time)

3. Wiggins

4. Draymond

5. Looney (early season) β†’ Wiseman (later in the season, but not in crunch time)

Alternatively, if Loon and Wiseman are both playing well, either Oubre or Wiggins get bumped while Draymond slides to the 3.

I assume Steph will keep his usual Q1, 2nd half Q2, Q3, 2nd half Q4 (crunch time) minutes whenever he's not in foul trouble. Draymond will play most of his minutes with Steph. One of the three centers will lay down screens and get some sweet dunks, *someone* will play catch-and-shoot, and the last spot is a wildcard.

Meanwhile the 1st-half Q2/Q4 lineup without Steph needs ball-handling, passing, and scoring. Certainly, Baze, Oubre, Paschall, Wanamaker, Chriss, and Poole are all in competition for these minutes. But most of all, I think this is where Wiggins has room to grow into a great role for the team: he can do a little of everything and his court vision in particular is probably his best emerging strength. That's kind of similar to the T-Wolves wanted him to do, though, and he couldn't really, so maybe he takes the wildcard spot in the Steph lineups instead. (Or maybe the team trades him, I dunno.)

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Dec 17, 2020Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

I'm not too concerned with who the Warriors release or keep for the end of the bench. What I am concerned about is whether the starters will have enough cohesion to play as a team and learn their roles accordingly. Without this discipline and execution, they will not go very far. We've yet to see Green and Wiseman add their talents to the mix so the jury is still out as to how good the Warriors will be.

Kerr says he is emphasizing defense. Sound good but I still want to see the offensive production that will be necessary to beat the better teams. We lost a whole lot of ppg without KD and Klay. It has to be made up somehow. Oubre and Wiggins need to step up offensively which I haven't seen yet. I instinctively like Oubre and his energy but I am suspect of his consistent ability to play within Kerr's system. We'll see. Wiggins is a complete mystery to me. I don't understand a basketball player who is this quiet succeeding on a championship team. Kerr is happy with his defense but where is the aggressive play offensively? He is a void at rebounding and is not using his size at the basket. He is not a Klay replica. He doesn't shoot as effectively and needs to use his body to beat defenders. For me, he is a long shot to hang on this team past this season if he doesn't have a turnaround. This should be a special project for Kerr & Cie.

Can't wait for Wiseman to show us what he's got. Green will certainly be a welcome addition to the team chemistry and playmaking. And, as far as the bench goes, the guy I hoped would stick, Caleb Wesson, still has a game that needs to be seen. He is way better than he has seemed, can rebound and score. Seems like a smart player who needs minutes somewhere. Maybe they'll stick him in the gleague or in their back pocket. Mulder is repetitive, JTA just not enough. The rest don't have a chance. They seem to like Mannion. A two way is not a bad thing for him. Every team needs a redhead for some color.

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Dec 16, 2020Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

It's better to be worrying about who the 14th or 15th player on the roster is than the 4th or 5th, and if the Warriors really like Mulder and JTA, there is always the chance that Poole could be moved for a 2nd round pick. That said, I can't get that excited about G-league stats. Poole, for example, was actually really good in his 3 G-league games, it didn't translate to success in the NBA.

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Dec 16, 2020Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

I think EP's isolation scoring ability was sorely missed when Steph went to the bench. After Curry, he's by far our best isolation scorer (Wiggins/Oubre aren't good in isolation) and our second unit sorely missed his ability to just go ahead and get a bucket.

Also, don't get me wrong, I like Poole but Damion Lee is a walking bucket off the bench so he needs to be in when our bench is starved of scoring.

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Dec 16, 2020Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

From what I saw in the first half, I thought JTA looked really good at everything except shooting. Bagley got a few tough buckets (one off an uncalled offensive foul) with JTA defending but I thought he was playing Bagley well. Given how much bigger Bagley is, that's a sign of a smart player. And he was talking a lot defensively. And he was also out on the perimeter blocking Hield's three point attempt. He just seems like he knows what he's doing on that end. And on offense, he was doing the "little things" and working hard to complement Curry's game as best as he could.

It's really a shame he can't shoot (or score?) and that Klay is out, because if either scenario wasn't true I think he could be really good for this team. As it stands, I gotta think Mulder will win the last roster spot by default. I'm hoping they can get JTA on a two-way and keep him around though, I like his game. Perhaps they'll look around the league for another shooter though.

And if they cut him and another team picks him up, I'm going to be annoyed at the front office again for signing Smailagic to a guaranteed deal rather than a two-way deal (like they correctly did with Mannion at least).

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For the second night in a row it looked like Damion Lee was getting third stringer's minutes. Just a few weeks ago it sounded like he was a shoo-in to be a not-too-deepin-the-rotation player, but now I wonder if he is competing for a job. Seems like Poole is getting more play than him, I expected that to be flipped.

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Hope they keep Mulder. Don't see a Nunn, Seth Curry, Chris Boucher situation blowing up in our face if another team pickus up Mulder but to be fair, I never a saw a Nunn, Seth, Boucher situation happening with respective players at the time lol. I'm not enamored with Smailigics prospects BUT if you just dished out 80 mil to go get Kelly Oubre, you're allowed to keep a 'project' at the end of the bench to satisfy your kid's ego. Even as raw as he is, Smailgic is no Jacob Evans. There is a glimmer of potential there and thats all you can ask for the 15th spot.

Happy (but not as enamored as before Wiseman tested positive and had to miss half of training camp though) with the Center rotation. We are getting exactly what I thought we would from Looney (looked Gassed last night though) and Chriss (smooth 3 point stroke was a pleasant surprise). I'm happier with our bench this year than I have been since Jack and a healthy Rush were donning a uniform. No that doesnt mean we have high end talent on our bench like Iguodala and Livingston but overall bench depth im content right now.

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Dec 16, 2020Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

As far as the 15th spot on the roster, I agree with several that it should be Mulder. I think he fills a need and also gets picked up by some other team if we don't keep him as shooting is always at a premium for back of the bench type of guys.

As far as preseason results, I'm going to treat them like I do all preseasons - they mean pretty close to nothing and extrapolating predictive information from them is fairly pointless. I love seeing the team on the court again as much as the next fan but preseason play is not and never has been an indicator of what a team will look like during the regular season. Yeah you want to see encouraging signs from young players, but year in and year out people make a bunch of predictions based on a handful of preseason games that turn out to look stupid at worst and misguided at best once the real season gets underway. Looking forward to the season opener.

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Without enough shooting, you simply have to add Mulder. Make JTA a 2-way. I think I read that you risk losing him in that situation. So be it.

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Dec 16, 2020Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

Finally: Prime time Steph is going to wreck the league again, and all those fools saying the Warriors have a mid tier upside are completely disrespecting Steph. The best player in the league on a team with a top 10 Defense is going to have a chance against anyone. (And who wants to bet the Warriors are going to find a way to get the vaccine to their players first?) This year is going to be crazy!

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Curry + Wannamaker was brutal, but Curry plus Mannion actually worked well. Mannion just understands the game, and I hope he puts up 1000 shots a day in practice and gets some serious run this year.

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Dec 16, 2020Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

There was a ton of masonry work going on out there for the W’s this game.

Looney brought stones for hands and just wasn’t ready for full effect playmaking Steph.

There were enough bricked freethrows to build a house, and Mannion kept putting them up from everywhere.

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Dec 16, 2020Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

Thanks for the analysis. I was thinking exactly what you said about the second quarter watching the game last night: If Kerr sticks to his traditional resting Curry the majority of Q2 we’re going to see this play out a ton this year.

My other thought was: we have 4 bigs inactive for that game (3 of them very important and Smiley) but that was the full guard rotation out there.

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Dec 16, 2020Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

The current roster doesn't have enough knockdown shooters. Curry is the only one. Without shooters to spread the floor, the middle gets congested and plays break down

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