Let's talk a bit more about the middle of the bench and/or the starting spots, since those probably matter more than the 15th slot (though I expect Kerr to use at least a dozen guys every night). Also, with Covid absences, every team in the league will probably have way more starting lineups than usual and will have to go deeper into the bench too.
Ranked by expected amounts of important minutes (including two 2-way slots):
1-2. Steph and Dray will start every game and play ~30m/gm apiece unless something awful happens.
3. Wiggins is the obvious next guy up but I could see him getting nudged into more of a 2nd-unit role if one of the young'uns is coming along.
4-5. Oubre and Bazemore will get reliable minutes and I expect one or the other to start every game. More likely Oubre gets the start but Bazemore plays in crunch time. But either one of these guys could get bumped below the bench mob
6-8. One of Looney, Wiseman, and Chriss will start at center just about every game; the other two should get solid rotation minutes. They're behind the guys above mostly because they're splitting the center spot 3 ways. Looney is most likely to be in crunch time minutes because he doesn't really make mistakes, and mistakes in crunch time kill you. (Doubtlessly Kerr will give Wiseman a few "learning opportunities" in crunch time.)
9-12. Paschall, Wanamaker, Poole, Lee all get slotted into the 2nd unit (i.e. when Curry sits) based on matchup and the fit with the other guys above. Paschall probably gets the most pts/36 but his defense has to not suck; Wanamaker has the opposite problem. Lee is probably the best player out of these guys right now but with the least room for improvement, so his standing probably depends on how much the Warriors need someone who can be "good enough" immediately vs. developing for later. Poole could move out of this slot in either direction; if he gets hot, he displaces Baze/Oubre; if he's as cold as last year he'll be wondering if the G-League has a season.
13-16. The end of the bench. Whoever these guys are, they'll get garbage time minutes, and injury-replacement minutes, and that's... about it. Smiley, Mulder, JTA, and Mannion basically have a lock on these spots but it's a toss-up who's on a proper NBA contract and who isn't. Also, if the team uses the DPE or even reserves a roster slot for it, one of them is getting fully cut. They don't really overlap on positions, so who you want to keep depends most on who's injured or out sick. That's not a calculus I want to make.
17. Klay won't play. 😢
tl;dr I'm expecting opening day first-string lineup to be (by position):
1. Steph
2. Oubre (start) → Bazemore (crunch time)
3. Wiggins
4. Draymond
5. Looney (early season) → Wiseman (later in the season, but not in crunch time)
Alternatively, if Loon and Wiseman are both playing well, either Oubre or Wiggins get bumped while Draymond slides to the 3.
I assume Steph will keep his usual Q1, 2nd half Q2, Q3, 2nd half Q4 (crunch time) minutes whenever he's not in foul trouble. Draymond will play most of his minutes with Steph. One of the three centers will lay down screens and get some sweet dunks, *someone* will play catch-and-shoot, and the last spot is a wildcard.
Meanwhile the 1st-half Q2/Q4 lineup without Steph needs ball-handling, passing, and scoring. Certainly, Baze, Oubre, Paschall, Wanamaker, Chriss, and Poole are all in competition for these minutes. But most of all, I think this is where Wiggins has room to grow into a great role for the team: he can do a little of everything and his court vision in particular is probably his best emerging strength. That's kind of similar to the T-Wolves wanted him to do, though, and he couldn't really, so maybe he takes the wildcard spot in the Steph lineups instead. (Or maybe the team trades him, I dunno.)
I agree with pretty much all of what you said as far as the expected minutes breakdown. My early pre-season hope is that Wiseman does well enough early on to force Kerr to play him in more high leverage situations. I have a similar hope for Oubre as I think his game can flourish in our system if he continues to improve his shooting like he has done every season of his career.
I think the Warriors regular rotation will go 12 deep, something like:
Curry-Wanamaker
Oubre-Poole-Lee
Wiggins-Bazemore
Green-Pashcall
Looney-Wiseman-Chriss
Then with Nico, Smiley and Klay taking roster spots, that leaves one more regular roster spot, and one two-way left over.
The wing spots will be pretty interchangeable. Curry will get his time off-ball, Poole can run a little point, Bazemore is both 2-3, etc.
Kerr has said he'll want to keep Curry and Green together for the PnR, and I think Looney is also someone that needs to play with Curry. Looney's offense needs Curry to open it up for him. Wiseman you want to play with Curry and Green as much as possible too, but Wiseman with the bench to grab offensive rebounds off the misses could be good. If his 3pt shot is real, Chriss could be best bigman fit to help the non-Curry bench units.
As it is, I think to start the season, Looney will start 1st and 3rd quarters, Wiseman then comes in as first big off the bench, and Chriss comes in to start the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Closing units will be matchup based I guess. I dunno if the Ws have the shooting to truly play smallball and run opposing centers off the court, so I dunno how much we'll actually see Green at the 5. If Paschall shoots league average from 3, I could see a Curry-Oubre-Wiggins-Paschall-Green smallball closing unit.
This sure as heck looks like it's spot on for how things are trending. Maybe with Wiseman starting over Looney at some earlier point in the season than expected if he lives up to the hype.
I didn't realize Wanamaker is over 30 (in just his second NBA season!) so yeah, he probably doesn't grow that much as a player overall, but like Andre SC says, he can improve by learning how he fits in with the rest of the team.
Damion Lee has played plenty with both the champ Warriors and last year's chaos squad, so you figure his role is pretty clear.
Agree! After the 1st preseason game I saw how Klay was the one piece that would put us in the championship conversation. Maybe we can get a lucky with a midseason DPE trade.
I'm not too concerned with who the Warriors release or keep for the end of the bench. What I am concerned about is whether the starters will have enough cohesion to play as a team and learn their roles accordingly. Without this discipline and execution, they will not go very far. We've yet to see Green and Wiseman add their talents to the mix so the jury is still out as to how good the Warriors will be.
Kerr says he is emphasizing defense. Sound good but I still want to see the offensive production that will be necessary to beat the better teams. We lost a whole lot of ppg without KD and Klay. It has to be made up somehow. Oubre and Wiggins need to step up offensively which I haven't seen yet. I instinctively like Oubre and his energy but I am suspect of his consistent ability to play within Kerr's system. We'll see. Wiggins is a complete mystery to me. I don't understand a basketball player who is this quiet succeeding on a championship team. Kerr is happy with his defense but where is the aggressive play offensively? He is a void at rebounding and is not using his size at the basket. He is not a Klay replica. He doesn't shoot as effectively and needs to use his body to beat defenders. For me, he is a long shot to hang on this team past this season if he doesn't have a turnaround. This should be a special project for Kerr & Cie.
Can't wait for Wiseman to show us what he's got. Green will certainly be a welcome addition to the team chemistry and playmaking. And, as far as the bench goes, the guy I hoped would stick, Caleb Wesson, still has a game that needs to be seen. He is way better than he has seemed, can rebound and score. Seems like a smart player who needs minutes somewhere. Maybe they'll stick him in the gleague or in their back pocket. Mulder is repetitive, JTA just not enough. The rest don't have a chance. They seem to like Mannion. A two way is not a bad thing for him. Every team needs a redhead for some color.
It's better to be worrying about who the 14th or 15th player on the roster is than the 4th or 5th, and if the Warriors really like Mulder and JTA, there is always the chance that Poole could be moved for a 2nd round pick. That said, I can't get that excited about G-league stats. Poole, for example, was actually really good in his 3 G-league games, it didn't translate to success in the NBA.
It absolutely translated. He was a stud in the NBA after his stint in the G-league: 19.2 pts and 6.4 assists per 36 on .645 true shooting in his five March games.
He was better after his G-league games, but I'm not sure 8 games total outweight the other 50 or so games. To be clear, I'd definitely prefer holding onto Poole due to much greater upside.
Well you can't use a 3 game sample to prove your point and then call sample size on the 5 game sample that disproves it. Are there other reasons besides Poole not to pay attention to g-league stats?
Poole still has potential to be significantly better than most 2nd round picks, and most people here value him higher than Mulder and JTA, I imagine. The fact that he seems to be improving over time is a big deal.
I think EP's isolation scoring ability was sorely missed when Steph went to the bench. After Curry, he's by far our best isolation scorer (Wiggins/Oubre aren't good in isolation) and our second unit sorely missed his ability to just go ahead and get a bucket.
Also, don't get me wrong, I like Poole but Damion Lee is a walking bucket off the bench so he needs to be in when our bench is starved of scoring.
From what I saw in the first half, I thought JTA looked really good at everything except shooting. Bagley got a few tough buckets (one off an uncalled offensive foul) with JTA defending but I thought he was playing Bagley well. Given how much bigger Bagley is, that's a sign of a smart player. And he was talking a lot defensively. And he was also out on the perimeter blocking Hield's three point attempt. He just seems like he knows what he's doing on that end. And on offense, he was doing the "little things" and working hard to complement Curry's game as best as he could.
It's really a shame he can't shoot (or score?) and that Klay is out, because if either scenario wasn't true I think he could be really good for this team. As it stands, I gotta think Mulder will win the last roster spot by default. I'm hoping they can get JTA on a two-way and keep him around though, I like his game. Perhaps they'll look around the league for another shooter though.
And if they cut him and another team picks him up, I'm going to be annoyed at the front office again for signing Smailagic to a guaranteed deal rather than a two-way deal (like they correctly did with Mannion at least).
Tbh I love Juan but to me he was clearly the worst player at his position Tuesday night. He repeatedly lost his man and got bailed out by a missed shot. That won't happen in the season. His shot is not falling right now, Mulder's is. Mulder's track record as a shooter is more inspiring to me right now.
I saw him perhaps miscommunicate on a switch a couple times, but I don't know if I agree that he repeatedly lost his man, he looked pretty locked in on and off ball to me. You could be right though, I didn't watch the second half, only saw a few highlights.
I get that we need shooting and I feel like I'm the minority here, but I feel like I'm missing something about Mulder. Admittedly I haven't seen him play much and his stroke looks good from these last two games, but looking at his past season and college stats, I'm barely convinced he can be an above average shooter... that literally does nothing else.
Last year (7 games) 30% on threes, 40% overall... in college, 36% on threes. For comparison, both McCaw and Jacob Evans have had equal or slightly better numbers and I'm not sure we'd consider either to be a solution to our outside shooting woes.
I do have a few issues with Mulder as a shooter though. His FT% in the G League is surprisingly low for a supposed sharpshooter. And he's only 6'3. I know people talk about how wingspan is more important for a player and I mostly agree, but I think jumpshooting is a place where it matters.
I kinda wonder about the other G League shooter they have on Santa Cruz, Ryan Taylor (https://www.basketball-reference.com/gleague/players/t/taylory01d.html ). He shot 43% from three last season, and made all 18 of his FTs. He was lighting it up in that minicamp scrimmage, from what we were shown. Also, he's 6'6. But he hasn't done it over multiple seasons, so perhaps the Warriors want to see another strong shooting season from him (if the G League even happens). Plus, I know nothing about his game other than his percentages.
He's also consistently shot really high volume -- 11.4 attempts per 40 minutes in college, @ 36.5% (similar to Trae Young) -- and then averaged 8 attempts per 36 in the g-leauge. This is probably already clear, but higher volume suggests tougher shots.
> His FT% in the G League is surprisingly low for a supposed sharpshooter. And he's only 6'3. I know people talk about how wingspan is more important for a player and I mostly agree, but I think jumpshooting is a place where it matters.
One difference is that the NBA players are much better defensively, and you're way more likely to run into a bigger, quicker player out there on the NBA perimiter compared to the D League.
He does have some short comings, and with Wanamaker, and Mannion (not to mention Poole/Lee) vying for those backup PG minutes, it may just not make sense to keep Mulder around. How old is our old pal Anthony Morrow these days?
JTA has to attack the bask sometimes when he cuts. As it stands he’s only passing after getting the ball on admittedly great cuts to the basket, but then his unwillingness to finish will lead to more and more fast break turnovers as teams sit on the passing lanes.
For the second night in a row it looked like Damion Lee was getting third stringer's minutes. Just a few weeks ago it sounded like he was a shoo-in to be a not-too-deepin-the-rotation player, but now I wonder if he is competing for a job. Seems like Poole is getting more play than him, I expected that to be flipped.
I would be very surprised if they cut Lee. He is clearly better than many of the bench guys as he can get to the basket, shoot 3's, move with or without the ball and cause havoc. Better than just about everyone not named Paschall, Baze, Poole, Mannion, and is a better scorer than Wanamaker, JTA and the rest of the tryouts.
I tend to agree with the other comments, but I also think we're going to see Thursday's game as closer to what the opening night roster/substituations will look like (with the possible exception of Draymond and/or Wiseman not being available). So, will be interesting to see if Lee's minutes are any different from the first two games or not.
When you're talking about the 9-15 spots on the roster, they're probably less worried about building chemistry and more finding what they have. Lee is a known entity.
They've also had a year with him, so mostly know what to expect. Wanamaker being new, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they wanted to take these free games to run him out there extra
Hope they keep Mulder. Don't see a Nunn, Seth Curry, Chris Boucher situation blowing up in our face if another team pickus up Mulder but to be fair, I never a saw a Nunn, Seth, Boucher situation happening with respective players at the time lol. I'm not enamored with Smailigics prospects BUT if you just dished out 80 mil to go get Kelly Oubre, you're allowed to keep a 'project' at the end of the bench to satisfy your kid's ego. Even as raw as he is, Smailgic is no Jacob Evans. There is a glimmer of potential there and thats all you can ask for the 15th spot.
Happy (but not as enamored as before Wiseman tested positive and had to miss half of training camp though) with the Center rotation. We are getting exactly what I thought we would from Looney (looked Gassed last night though) and Chriss (smooth 3 point stroke was a pleasant surprise). I'm happier with our bench this year than I have been since Jack and a healthy Rush were donning a uniform. No that doesnt mean we have high end talent on our bench like Iguodala and Livingston but overall bench depth im content right now.
As far as the 15th spot on the roster, I agree with several that it should be Mulder. I think he fills a need and also gets picked up by some other team if we don't keep him as shooting is always at a premium for back of the bench type of guys.
As far as preseason results, I'm going to treat them like I do all preseasons - they mean pretty close to nothing and extrapolating predictive information from them is fairly pointless. I love seeing the team on the court again as much as the next fan but preseason play is not and never has been an indicator of what a team will look like during the regular season. Yeah you want to see encouraging signs from young players, but year in and year out people make a bunch of predictions based on a handful of preseason games that turn out to look stupid at worst and misguided at best once the real season gets underway. Looking forward to the season opener.
> preseason play is not and never has been an indicator of what a team will look like during the regular season
Yeah, in this case, I'm going to have to disagree here. Due to the incredibly short practice times and the incredibly short preseason schedule, I'm expecting the Warriors to look pretty similar to what we're seeing right now at the start of the season. Teams with more (any really) familiarity from prior seasons with each other can have the luxury of not playing stars much and then starting back up where they left off. Lakers, Nuggets, Clippers et all, sure. Warriors... not so much.
We're going to need to be patient this year, it is going to take some time and it is going to look ugly (very ugly) at times. By the time the season ends, health godwilling, I think this team is going to be far better than what we are seeing now.
Well, regular season team will have Draymond and Wisemen, at least. Perhaps their two most important help defenders.
But yeah, I agree, it'll take time for the team to get up to speed. Draymond Green and Looney literally being the only guys on the team with significant time playing with Curry (well, Bazemore but I dont count that), and even Looney looked like Curry was playing too fast for him against the Kings.
I understand your position. I maintain mine, that the team will look a lot different during the regular season than the team we are seeing now, primarily due to different rotations, less minutes for the back of the bench, and more familiarity with each other after every game. I do not believe what we are seeing right now is predictive whatsoever of what we will see this season. Especially down 2/5 starters (or 1 starter and 1 impact player) for both games and guys still working each other into game shape. If you look around the league, the one word predominantly present in almost every team's preseason evaluation is "sloppy".
Mulder needs to hit open looks, of which he'll get plenty until he proves he is a threat. If he proves he's a threat he'll draw away bodies from other players and open up better looks on the floor.
90% of the NBA's good three point shooters move like shit off the ball, we're just spoiled by Steph and Klay.
That seems like kind of a weird statement, absent other information. Even if Mulder is only a shooter, that appears to be our absolute #1 area of need. Sure, he needs to move more off-ball, but I don't think you can draw an arrow from that to him being on or off the roster.
The thinking was: There’s not enough playmaking on the second unit to create a ton of open looks for a purely camped out 3 point shooter. He’s going to have to put a bit more pressure on the D with off ball ball movement if he’s going to avoid disappearing for long stretches with the second unit.
The team was noticeably worse on defense with JTA starting than Paschall. It’s worth the risk to run him through waivers since he’s just not NBA ready for a winning team yet.
Finally: Prime time Steph is going to wreck the league again, and all those fools saying the Warriors have a mid tier upside are completely disrespecting Steph. The best player in the league on a team with a top 10 Defense is going to have a chance against anyone. (And who wants to bet the Warriors are going to find a way to get the vaccine to their players first?) This year is going to be crazy!
I've heard that Lacob has bought all of the NBA's allotted vaccines and will make sure no team is healthier than the Dubs! lol
Since this is a team sport, it's going to take more than Steph to up the level of championship play that this team will need to beat the better teams out there. It's going to be harder for them to get into the Finals than ever before. I think your memories may be playing tricks on you. This is not the same club by any stretch.
Love your first sentence, that’s the tone I was shooting for but apparently missed.
I can’t deny the truth of the second part: definitely getting old and that steel trap is rusting away. I look forward to the Warriors embracing the underdog role and facing a ton of good teams this year. I just think that if players like Looney are ready to play with prime time Steph, they have a chance to compete we believe style. (so you’re saying there’s a chance)
We all want to succeed, but if it comes down to Looney, we are in trouble. He has never been a top minutes guy or a consistent productive player in his NBA career. Success will come from the new guys performing up to expectations. Looney is too slow for today's game. Even Bogut can't compete in today's game. Luckily, Wiseman will not have that problem. Can't wait to see what he's got.
Liked your post until the vaccine comment. Let's not promote unfair access of critical medical supplies by crazy rich millionaires who are employed in the entertainment industry...
I hear you, wasn’t meaning to promote just predict. Although, a strong case could be made that you want the first significant round of the vaccine going to less vulnerable members of the population since you don’t want to be killing people off with adverse reactions, and the approval process has been a bit rushed, so there may still be some revelations about the true depth of adverse reactions & %’s when the first official round of vaccinations are administered.
I was thinking this, but after two preseason games, I'm starting to think that the Warriors' most likely outcome is that they really are just about as good as expected—fringe playoff team. Upside scenario is another one of the rotation guys cracks the code to both score and defend dependably; then we're good. Downside scenario is Curry or Draymond spends significant time injured.
Curry's health is the limiting factor. Warriors looked really bad against Sac, but Paschall, Green and Wiseman were all out. They had no offense working at all. Perhaps middle of the playoff pack is too high - defensive ranking and pts of fast break will tell the tale - but I'd prefer to go in with optimism. This year is a real test for Kerr and his staff. Because I like him, I trust he'll get the job done.
Curry + Wannamaker was brutal, but Curry plus Mannion actually worked well. Mannion just understands the game, and I hope he puts up 1000 shots a day in practice and gets some serious run this year.
I believe Mannion will be shooting well in short order and pushing Wannaker for the backup slot by mid-season. Shooting form looks good and last two games I think he has just looked more nervous shooting than bad. He pushes the offense much faster than Wannamaker, played credible defense, saw the court really well, and only once looked out of control running the offense.
They said the same thing about Poole last season and we all know how that went. There is no telling how a player's game will translate to the NBA. Some just don't have it. No saying Mannion will be like that but we just have to wait and see. I like his motor. He looks good in blue!
Nickname thought: What about Wannamaker “the magician”? He made Curry, Chriss, and Wiggins pretty much disappear when he was out on the floor with them this game.
And there are no other point guards on the roster unless you want to entrust Poole (I absolutely do not trust Poole on either end of the court at this time.)
Thanks for the analysis. I was thinking exactly what you said about the second quarter watching the game last night: If Kerr sticks to his traditional resting Curry the majority of Q2 we’re going to see this play out a ton this year.
My other thought was: we have 4 bigs inactive for that game (3 of them very important and Smiley) but that was the full guard rotation out there.
The current roster doesn't have enough knockdown shooters. Curry is the only one. Without shooters to spread the floor, the middle gets congested and plays break down
I'm not worried about the bottom of the roster. In the NBA, it's the top of the roster that matters, and that's where the Warriors have a problem. After Steph Curry, they don't have any other high efficiency scorers near the top of the rotation. The Warriors need another efficient volume scorer.
The Warriors are deep in the luxury tax. They escaped luxury tax last year, but they paid tax the prior 2 years. Teams that pay luxury tax in 3 of the past 4 years are subject to a repeater tax if they are over the tax threshold a 4th year. That means the Warriors need to drop below the tax threshold next year, or they'll pay the repeater tax. To do that, they have to shed the salary of at least one of Steph, Klay, Dray, or Wiggins.
Wiggins' salary with a repeater tax? That's $181M. He'd need a Michael Jordan MVP season to justify that. Whether or not Wiggins emerges as a star, he'll be moved either before the trade deadline or next offseason, count on it.
But how good Wiggins is determines what assets the Warriors get (or give up) to shed that contract, and potentially impact how good this team is for years to come. Even though he'll likely be gone soon, we all need to root hard for Andrew Wiggins.
If Wiggins has a good season, and the Warriors are in a position to make a run for a playoff spot, and the Bulls are having a terrible season, then Otto Porter Jr's expiring contract becomes an attractive trade. Porter can fill much of the hole in shooting left by Klay's injury, and would be great to have in a playoff push.
If Wiggins has a poor season, but the Warriors are doing well and the Bulls are losing, then Porter is still a good target, but the Warriors will have to give up a valuable asset to do it.
If Wiggins is doing well but the Warriors are doing poorly (not the likely scenario), Wiggins will get traded for draft picks.
If Wiggins is doing poorly and the Warriors are doing poorly, the team is in a world of hurt. At this point assets as valuable as Klay Thompson, James Wiseman, and the Minnesota pick become available.
I think a lot of Wiggins future will also depend on how Oubre does this season and whether there is any chemistry that develops. You can see why the W's let Barnes go. They need an SF that is a 3andD type. If Wiggins is their starting SG, his role will be different than playing with Klay who I think would resume his SG position rather than play SF. With Oubre playing well, Wiggins must execute and show he belongs on this team otherwise he's a goner. If Oubre stumbles, we are in trouble. KD was more than just 'big' for us.
There is no way all three of Oubre, Wiggins, and Klay are going to be on the roster next season. With the repeater tax, the math just doesn't work.
We all should root for Wiggins this season. If Wiggins does poorly, it puts *Klay*'s job in jeopardy. If Wiggins does poorly, it will take major assets to move his contract. Plus, I like Wiggins and want him to have a good career.
I don't see Klay's job in jeopardy. It's the splash brothers first and foremost in Lacob's mind. If someone has to go it is going to be either Wiggins or Oubre. I also want Wiggins to succeed but I don't have the confidence that he will. Wiggins is not a bust by any means and I think he can be moved if needs be. But, we'll see what transpires.
Let's talk a bit more about the middle of the bench and/or the starting spots, since those probably matter more than the 15th slot (though I expect Kerr to use at least a dozen guys every night). Also, with Covid absences, every team in the league will probably have way more starting lineups than usual and will have to go deeper into the bench too.
Ranked by expected amounts of important minutes (including two 2-way slots):
1-2. Steph and Dray will start every game and play ~30m/gm apiece unless something awful happens.
3. Wiggins is the obvious next guy up but I could see him getting nudged into more of a 2nd-unit role if one of the young'uns is coming along.
4-5. Oubre and Bazemore will get reliable minutes and I expect one or the other to start every game. More likely Oubre gets the start but Bazemore plays in crunch time. But either one of these guys could get bumped below the bench mob
6-8. One of Looney, Wiseman, and Chriss will start at center just about every game; the other two should get solid rotation minutes. They're behind the guys above mostly because they're splitting the center spot 3 ways. Looney is most likely to be in crunch time minutes because he doesn't really make mistakes, and mistakes in crunch time kill you. (Doubtlessly Kerr will give Wiseman a few "learning opportunities" in crunch time.)
9-12. Paschall, Wanamaker, Poole, Lee all get slotted into the 2nd unit (i.e. when Curry sits) based on matchup and the fit with the other guys above. Paschall probably gets the most pts/36 but his defense has to not suck; Wanamaker has the opposite problem. Lee is probably the best player out of these guys right now but with the least room for improvement, so his standing probably depends on how much the Warriors need someone who can be "good enough" immediately vs. developing for later. Poole could move out of this slot in either direction; if he gets hot, he displaces Baze/Oubre; if he's as cold as last year he'll be wondering if the G-League has a season.
13-16. The end of the bench. Whoever these guys are, they'll get garbage time minutes, and injury-replacement minutes, and that's... about it. Smiley, Mulder, JTA, and Mannion basically have a lock on these spots but it's a toss-up who's on a proper NBA contract and who isn't. Also, if the team uses the DPE or even reserves a roster slot for it, one of them is getting fully cut. They don't really overlap on positions, so who you want to keep depends most on who's injured or out sick. That's not a calculus I want to make.
17. Klay won't play. 😢
tl;dr I'm expecting opening day first-string lineup to be (by position):
1. Steph
2. Oubre (start) → Bazemore (crunch time)
3. Wiggins
4. Draymond
5. Looney (early season) → Wiseman (later in the season, but not in crunch time)
Alternatively, if Loon and Wiseman are both playing well, either Oubre or Wiggins get bumped while Draymond slides to the 3.
I assume Steph will keep his usual Q1, 2nd half Q2, Q3, 2nd half Q4 (crunch time) minutes whenever he's not in foul trouble. Draymond will play most of his minutes with Steph. One of the three centers will lay down screens and get some sweet dunks, *someone* will play catch-and-shoot, and the last spot is a wildcard.
Meanwhile the 1st-half Q2/Q4 lineup without Steph needs ball-handling, passing, and scoring. Certainly, Baze, Oubre, Paschall, Wanamaker, Chriss, and Poole are all in competition for these minutes. But most of all, I think this is where Wiggins has room to grow into a great role for the team: he can do a little of everything and his court vision in particular is probably his best emerging strength. That's kind of similar to the T-Wolves wanted him to do, though, and he couldn't really, so maybe he takes the wildcard spot in the Steph lineups instead. (Or maybe the team trades him, I dunno.)
I agree with pretty much all of what you said as far as the expected minutes breakdown. My early pre-season hope is that Wiseman does well enough early on to force Kerr to play him in more high leverage situations. I have a similar hope for Oubre as I think his game can flourish in our system if he continues to improve his shooting like he has done every season of his career.
I think the Warriors regular rotation will go 12 deep, something like:
Curry-Wanamaker
Oubre-Poole-Lee
Wiggins-Bazemore
Green-Pashcall
Looney-Wiseman-Chriss
Then with Nico, Smiley and Klay taking roster spots, that leaves one more regular roster spot, and one two-way left over.
The wing spots will be pretty interchangeable. Curry will get his time off-ball, Poole can run a little point, Bazemore is both 2-3, etc.
Kerr has said he'll want to keep Curry and Green together for the PnR, and I think Looney is also someone that needs to play with Curry. Looney's offense needs Curry to open it up for him. Wiseman you want to play with Curry and Green as much as possible too, but Wiseman with the bench to grab offensive rebounds off the misses could be good. If his 3pt shot is real, Chriss could be best bigman fit to help the non-Curry bench units.
As it is, I think to start the season, Looney will start 1st and 3rd quarters, Wiseman then comes in as first big off the bench, and Chriss comes in to start the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Closing units will be matchup based I guess. I dunno if the Ws have the shooting to truly play smallball and run opposing centers off the court, so I dunno how much we'll actually see Green at the 5. If Paschall shoots league average from 3, I could see a Curry-Oubre-Wiggins-Paschall-Green smallball closing unit.
This sure as heck looks like it's spot on for how things are trending. Maybe with Wiseman starting over Looney at some earlier point in the season than expected if he lives up to the hype.
> Lee is probably the best player out of these guys right now but with the least room for improvement,
How do you figure Lee has less room for improvement than Wanamaker, who (to me at least) appears to be a more finished product?
I didn't realize Wanamaker is over 30 (in just his second NBA season!) so yeah, he probably doesn't grow that much as a player overall, but like Andre SC says, he can improve by learning how he fits in with the rest of the team.
Damion Lee has played plenty with both the champ Warriors and last year's chaos squad, so you figure his role is pretty clear.
Wannamaker should improve through gaining familiarity with the system.
I’d be shocked if Wiggins or Oubre came out of the starting lineup for anything other than injury. The closing lineup is still wide open.
I’d also be pretty shocked if Basemore moves in front of Oubre in crunch time lineups
*Bazemore
God, the more I look at this roster the more obvious it is there's a perfectly Klay-sized hole right in the middle. 😭
Agree! After the 1st preseason game I saw how Klay was the one piece that would put us in the championship conversation. Maybe we can get a lucky with a midseason DPE trade.
I'm not too concerned with who the Warriors release or keep for the end of the bench. What I am concerned about is whether the starters will have enough cohesion to play as a team and learn their roles accordingly. Without this discipline and execution, they will not go very far. We've yet to see Green and Wiseman add their talents to the mix so the jury is still out as to how good the Warriors will be.
Kerr says he is emphasizing defense. Sound good but I still want to see the offensive production that will be necessary to beat the better teams. We lost a whole lot of ppg without KD and Klay. It has to be made up somehow. Oubre and Wiggins need to step up offensively which I haven't seen yet. I instinctively like Oubre and his energy but I am suspect of his consistent ability to play within Kerr's system. We'll see. Wiggins is a complete mystery to me. I don't understand a basketball player who is this quiet succeeding on a championship team. Kerr is happy with his defense but where is the aggressive play offensively? He is a void at rebounding and is not using his size at the basket. He is not a Klay replica. He doesn't shoot as effectively and needs to use his body to beat defenders. For me, he is a long shot to hang on this team past this season if he doesn't have a turnaround. This should be a special project for Kerr & Cie.
Can't wait for Wiseman to show us what he's got. Green will certainly be a welcome addition to the team chemistry and playmaking. And, as far as the bench goes, the guy I hoped would stick, Caleb Wesson, still has a game that needs to be seen. He is way better than he has seemed, can rebound and score. Seems like a smart player who needs minutes somewhere. Maybe they'll stick him in the gleague or in their back pocket. Mulder is repetitive, JTA just not enough. The rest don't have a chance. They seem to like Mannion. A two way is not a bad thing for him. Every team needs a redhead for some color.
It's better to be worrying about who the 14th or 15th player on the roster is than the 4th or 5th, and if the Warriors really like Mulder and JTA, there is always the chance that Poole could be moved for a 2nd round pick. That said, I can't get that excited about G-league stats. Poole, for example, was actually really good in his 3 G-league games, it didn't translate to success in the NBA.
It absolutely translated. He was a stud in the NBA after his stint in the G-league: 19.2 pts and 6.4 assists per 36 on .645 true shooting in his five March games.
He was better after his G-league games, but I'm not sure 8 games total outweight the other 50 or so games. To be clear, I'd definitely prefer holding onto Poole due to much greater upside.
Well you can't use a 3 game sample to prove your point and then call sample size on the 5 game sample that disproves it. Are there other reasons besides Poole not to pay attention to g-league stats?
Counter-examples: Danuel House, Kendrick Nunn, Spencer Dinwiddie
Poole still has potential to be significantly better than most 2nd round picks, and most people here value him higher than Mulder and JTA, I imagine. The fact that he seems to be improving over time is a big deal.
I think the Warriors are much higher on Poole as well.
I think EP's isolation scoring ability was sorely missed when Steph went to the bench. After Curry, he's by far our best isolation scorer (Wiggins/Oubre aren't good in isolation) and our second unit sorely missed his ability to just go ahead and get a bucket.
Also, don't get me wrong, I like Poole but Damion Lee is a walking bucket off the bench so he needs to be in when our bench is starved of scoring.
From what I saw in the first half, I thought JTA looked really good at everything except shooting. Bagley got a few tough buckets (one off an uncalled offensive foul) with JTA defending but I thought he was playing Bagley well. Given how much bigger Bagley is, that's a sign of a smart player. And he was talking a lot defensively. And he was also out on the perimeter blocking Hield's three point attempt. He just seems like he knows what he's doing on that end. And on offense, he was doing the "little things" and working hard to complement Curry's game as best as he could.
It's really a shame he can't shoot (or score?) and that Klay is out, because if either scenario wasn't true I think he could be really good for this team. As it stands, I gotta think Mulder will win the last roster spot by default. I'm hoping they can get JTA on a two-way and keep him around though, I like his game. Perhaps they'll look around the league for another shooter though.
And if they cut him and another team picks him up, I'm going to be annoyed at the front office again for signing Smailagic to a guaranteed deal rather than a two-way deal (like they correctly did with Mannion at least).
Man idk he looked horrible to me
Tbh I love Juan but to me he was clearly the worst player at his position Tuesday night. He repeatedly lost his man and got bailed out by a missed shot. That won't happen in the season. His shot is not falling right now, Mulder's is. Mulder's track record as a shooter is more inspiring to me right now.
I saw him perhaps miscommunicate on a switch a couple times, but I don't know if I agree that he repeatedly lost his man, he looked pretty locked in on and off ball to me. You could be right though, I didn't watch the second half, only saw a few highlights.
I get that we need shooting and I feel like I'm the minority here, but I feel like I'm missing something about Mulder. Admittedly I haven't seen him play much and his stroke looks good from these last two games, but looking at his past season and college stats, I'm barely convinced he can be an above average shooter... that literally does nothing else.
Last year (7 games) 30% on threes, 40% overall... in college, 36% on threes. For comparison, both McCaw and Jacob Evans have had equal or slightly better numbers and I'm not sure we'd consider either to be a solution to our outside shooting woes.
It's based on his G-League percentages over a few seasons (https://www.basketball-reference.com/gleague/players/m/muldemy01d.html ). Also he looks like he has a nice, quick, and consistent release.
I do have a few issues with Mulder as a shooter though. His FT% in the G League is surprisingly low for a supposed sharpshooter. And he's only 6'3. I know people talk about how wingspan is more important for a player and I mostly agree, but I think jumpshooting is a place where it matters.
I kinda wonder about the other G League shooter they have on Santa Cruz, Ryan Taylor (https://www.basketball-reference.com/gleague/players/t/taylory01d.html ). He shot 43% from three last season, and made all 18 of his FTs. He was lighting it up in that minicamp scrimmage, from what we were shown. Also, he's 6'6. But he hasn't done it over multiple seasons, so perhaps the Warriors want to see another strong shooting season from him (if the G League even happens). Plus, I know nothing about his game other than his percentages.
He's also consistently shot really high volume -- 11.4 attempts per 40 minutes in college, @ 36.5% (similar to Trae Young) -- and then averaged 8 attempts per 36 in the g-leauge. This is probably already clear, but higher volume suggests tougher shots.
some good points in here
> His FT% in the G League is surprisingly low for a supposed sharpshooter. And he's only 6'3. I know people talk about how wingspan is more important for a player and I mostly agree, but I think jumpshooting is a place where it matters.
One difference is that the NBA players are much better defensively, and you're way more likely to run into a bigger, quicker player out there on the NBA perimiter compared to the D League.
He does have some short comings, and with Wanamaker, and Mannion (not to mention Poole/Lee) vying for those backup PG minutes, it may just not make sense to keep Mulder around. How old is our old pal Anthony Morrow these days?
Mulder was 38% on ~300 threes in the G league.
bballref, you have failed me! thanks, this makes a little more sense now
Here ya go: https://stats.gleague.nba.com/player/1628539/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals
152 of 381 (39.9%)
And he shot 41.2% the year before (32.8% his rookie year)
Yea seems like he made a pretty big jump after his first gleague season and rebounds well for his size.
Yeah - this doesn't seem like a problem to me. Mulder is an easy choice for the 15th spot. He could end up being a rotation player.
JTA would be the lead for the two-way unless they're really enamored with the potential of one of the other guys.
JTA has to attack the bask sometimes when he cuts. As it stands he’s only passing after getting the ball on admittedly great cuts to the basket, but then his unwillingness to finish will lead to more and more fast break turnovers as teams sit on the passing lanes.
For the second night in a row it looked like Damion Lee was getting third stringer's minutes. Just a few weeks ago it sounded like he was a shoo-in to be a not-too-deepin-the-rotation player, but now I wonder if he is competing for a job. Seems like Poole is getting more play than him, I expected that to be flipped.
I would be very surprised if they cut Lee. He is clearly better than many of the bench guys as he can get to the basket, shoot 3's, move with or without the ball and cause havoc. Better than just about everyone not named Paschall, Baze, Poole, Mannion, and is a better scorer than Wanamaker, JTA and the rest of the tryouts.
I tend to agree with the other comments, but I also think we're going to see Thursday's game as closer to what the opening night roster/substituations will look like (with the possible exception of Draymond and/or Wiseman not being available). So, will be interesting to see if Lee's minutes are any different from the first two games or not.
They are taking a look at others. Doesn't mean he's the odd man out.
was thinking that, but then I noticed that he's not getting much experience with the 2nd squad. Seems to run with 3rd more. Making me wonder
When you're talking about the 9-15 spots on the roster, they're probably less worried about building chemistry and more finding what they have. Lee is a known entity.
They've also had a year with him, so mostly know what to expect. Wanamaker being new, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they wanted to take these free games to run him out there extra
Hope they keep Mulder. Don't see a Nunn, Seth Curry, Chris Boucher situation blowing up in our face if another team pickus up Mulder but to be fair, I never a saw a Nunn, Seth, Boucher situation happening with respective players at the time lol. I'm not enamored with Smailigics prospects BUT if you just dished out 80 mil to go get Kelly Oubre, you're allowed to keep a 'project' at the end of the bench to satisfy your kid's ego. Even as raw as he is, Smailgic is no Jacob Evans. There is a glimmer of potential there and thats all you can ask for the 15th spot.
Happy (but not as enamored as before Wiseman tested positive and had to miss half of training camp though) with the Center rotation. We are getting exactly what I thought we would from Looney (looked Gassed last night though) and Chriss (smooth 3 point stroke was a pleasant surprise). I'm happier with our bench this year than I have been since Jack and a healthy Rush were donning a uniform. No that doesnt mean we have high end talent on our bench like Iguodala and Livingston but overall bench depth im content right now.
As far as the 15th spot on the roster, I agree with several that it should be Mulder. I think he fills a need and also gets picked up by some other team if we don't keep him as shooting is always at a premium for back of the bench type of guys.
As far as preseason results, I'm going to treat them like I do all preseasons - they mean pretty close to nothing and extrapolating predictive information from them is fairly pointless. I love seeing the team on the court again as much as the next fan but preseason play is not and never has been an indicator of what a team will look like during the regular season. Yeah you want to see encouraging signs from young players, but year in and year out people make a bunch of predictions based on a handful of preseason games that turn out to look stupid at worst and misguided at best once the real season gets underway. Looking forward to the season opener.
> preseason play is not and never has been an indicator of what a team will look like during the regular season
Yeah, in this case, I'm going to have to disagree here. Due to the incredibly short practice times and the incredibly short preseason schedule, I'm expecting the Warriors to look pretty similar to what we're seeing right now at the start of the season. Teams with more (any really) familiarity from prior seasons with each other can have the luxury of not playing stars much and then starting back up where they left off. Lakers, Nuggets, Clippers et all, sure. Warriors... not so much.
We're going to need to be patient this year, it is going to take some time and it is going to look ugly (very ugly) at times. By the time the season ends, health godwilling, I think this team is going to be far better than what we are seeing now.
Well, regular season team will have Draymond and Wisemen, at least. Perhaps their two most important help defenders.
But yeah, I agree, it'll take time for the team to get up to speed. Draymond Green and Looney literally being the only guys on the team with significant time playing with Curry (well, Bazemore but I dont count that), and even Looney looked like Curry was playing too fast for him against the Kings.
Lee has played a fair amount with Curry
I understand your position. I maintain mine, that the team will look a lot different during the regular season than the team we are seeing now, primarily due to different rotations, less minutes for the back of the bench, and more familiarity with each other after every game. I do not believe what we are seeing right now is predictive whatsoever of what we will see this season. Especially down 2/5 starters (or 1 starter and 1 impact player) for both games and guys still working each other into game shape. If you look around the league, the one word predominantly present in almost every team's preseason evaluation is "sloppy".
Without enough shooting, you simply have to add Mulder. Make JTA a 2-way. I think I read that you risk losing him in that situation. So be it.
Mulder needs to move more off ball or he’s not going to make the roster.
Mulder needs to hit open looks, of which he'll get plenty until he proves he is a threat. If he proves he's a threat he'll draw away bodies from other players and open up better looks on the floor.
90% of the NBA's good three point shooters move like shit off the ball, we're just spoiled by Steph and Klay.
Thank you. That's what I was getting at.
That seems like kind of a weird statement, absent other information. Even if Mulder is only a shooter, that appears to be our absolute #1 area of need. Sure, he needs to move more off-ball, but I don't think you can draw an arrow from that to him being on or off the roster.
The thinking was: There’s not enough playmaking on the second unit to create a ton of open looks for a purely camped out 3 point shooter. He’s going to have to put a bit more pressure on the D with off ball ball movement if he’s going to avoid disappearing for long stretches with the second unit.
And with a non guaranteed contract, disappearing for games at the wrong time could lose the roster spot.
The team was noticeably worse on defense with JTA starting than Paschall. It’s worth the risk to run him through waivers since he’s just not NBA ready for a winning team yet.
Finally: Prime time Steph is going to wreck the league again, and all those fools saying the Warriors have a mid tier upside are completely disrespecting Steph. The best player in the league on a team with a top 10 Defense is going to have a chance against anyone. (And who wants to bet the Warriors are going to find a way to get the vaccine to their players first?) This year is going to be crazy!
I've heard that Lacob has bought all of the NBA's allotted vaccines and will make sure no team is healthier than the Dubs! lol
Since this is a team sport, it's going to take more than Steph to up the level of championship play that this team will need to beat the better teams out there. It's going to be harder for them to get into the Finals than ever before. I think your memories may be playing tricks on you. This is not the same club by any stretch.
Love your first sentence, that’s the tone I was shooting for but apparently missed.
I can’t deny the truth of the second part: definitely getting old and that steel trap is rusting away. I look forward to the Warriors embracing the underdog role and facing a ton of good teams this year. I just think that if players like Looney are ready to play with prime time Steph, they have a chance to compete we believe style. (so you’re saying there’s a chance)
We all want to succeed, but if it comes down to Looney, we are in trouble. He has never been a top minutes guy or a consistent productive player in his NBA career. Success will come from the new guys performing up to expectations. Looney is too slow for today's game. Even Bogut can't compete in today's game. Luckily, Wiseman will not have that problem. Can't wait to see what he's got.
Liked your post until the vaccine comment. Let's not promote unfair access of critical medical supplies by crazy rich millionaires who are employed in the entertainment industry...
I hear you, wasn’t meaning to promote just predict. Although, a strong case could be made that you want the first significant round of the vaccine going to less vulnerable members of the population since you don’t want to be killing people off with adverse reactions, and the approval process has been a bit rushed, so there may still be some revelations about the true depth of adverse reactions & %’s when the first official round of vaccinations are administered.
I agree the Dubs will be better than expected. Will take awhile, though, as new players figure out how to play together.
I was thinking this, but after two preseason games, I'm starting to think that the Warriors' most likely outcome is that they really are just about as good as expected—fringe playoff team. Upside scenario is another one of the rotation guys cracks the code to both score and defend dependably; then we're good. Downside scenario is Curry or Draymond spends significant time injured.
Curry's health is the limiting factor. Warriors looked really bad against Sac, but Paschall, Green and Wiseman were all out. They had no offense working at all. Perhaps middle of the playoff pack is too high - defensive ranking and pts of fast break will tell the tale - but I'd prefer to go in with optimism. This year is a real test for Kerr and his staff. Because I like him, I trust he'll get the job done.
Curry + Wannamaker was brutal, but Curry plus Mannion actually worked well. Mannion just understands the game, and I hope he puts up 1000 shots a day in practice and gets some serious run this year.
I believe Mannion will be shooting well in short order and pushing Wannaker for the backup slot by mid-season. Shooting form looks good and last two games I think he has just looked more nervous shooting than bad. He pushes the offense much faster than Wannamaker, played credible defense, saw the court really well, and only once looked out of control running the offense.
Except Wanamaker is a better shooter and MUCH better defender who can guard 1-3
They said the same thing about Poole last season and we all know how that went. There is no telling how a player's game will translate to the NBA. Some just don't have it. No saying Mannion will be like that but we just have to wait and see. I like his motor. He looks good in blue!
I agree Mannion looks like he has game. Shooting woes are adrenaline overdrive.
Agreed, lots of back of the rim shots.
Mannion is nice enough, but he's got to hit shots!
We are already going to be carrying a some non-scorers, I'd rather have Poole or Lee out there at this point over Mannion.
Nickname thought: What about Wannamaker “the magician”? He made Curry, Chriss, and Wiggins pretty much disappear when he was out on the floor with them this game.
In the G League. If he's getting run with us this year, we've been decimated by injuries.
My thinking was more a condemnation of the flow with Wannamaker over the first two games than loving a 1-10 shooting Mannion.
And there are no other point guards on the roster unless you want to entrust Poole (I absolutely do not trust Poole on either end of the court at this time.)
Point Draymond!
There was a ton of masonry work going on out there for the W’s this game.
Looney brought stones for hands and just wasn’t ready for full effect playmaking Steph.
There were enough bricked freethrows to build a house, and Mannion kept putting them up from everywhere.
Thanks for the analysis. I was thinking exactly what you said about the second quarter watching the game last night: If Kerr sticks to his traditional resting Curry the majority of Q2 we’re going to see this play out a ton this year.
My other thought was: we have 4 bigs inactive for that game (3 of them very important and Smiley) but that was the full guard rotation out there.
The current roster doesn't have enough knockdown shooters. Curry is the only one. Without shooters to spread the floor, the middle gets congested and plays break down
Agreed.
I'm not worried about the bottom of the roster. In the NBA, it's the top of the roster that matters, and that's where the Warriors have a problem. After Steph Curry, they don't have any other high efficiency scorers near the top of the rotation. The Warriors need another efficient volume scorer.
The Warriors are deep in the luxury tax. They escaped luxury tax last year, but they paid tax the prior 2 years. Teams that pay luxury tax in 3 of the past 4 years are subject to a repeater tax if they are over the tax threshold a 4th year. That means the Warriors need to drop below the tax threshold next year, or they'll pay the repeater tax. To do that, they have to shed the salary of at least one of Steph, Klay, Dray, or Wiggins.
Wiggins' salary with a repeater tax? That's $181M. He'd need a Michael Jordan MVP season to justify that. Whether or not Wiggins emerges as a star, he'll be moved either before the trade deadline or next offseason, count on it.
But how good Wiggins is determines what assets the Warriors get (or give up) to shed that contract, and potentially impact how good this team is for years to come. Even though he'll likely be gone soon, we all need to root hard for Andrew Wiggins.
If Wiggins has a good season, and the Warriors are in a position to make a run for a playoff spot, and the Bulls are having a terrible season, then Otto Porter Jr's expiring contract becomes an attractive trade. Porter can fill much of the hole in shooting left by Klay's injury, and would be great to have in a playoff push.
If Wiggins has a poor season, but the Warriors are doing well and the Bulls are losing, then Porter is still a good target, but the Warriors will have to give up a valuable asset to do it.
If Wiggins is doing well but the Warriors are doing poorly (not the likely scenario), Wiggins will get traded for draft picks.
If Wiggins is doing poorly and the Warriors are doing poorly, the team is in a world of hurt. At this point assets as valuable as Klay Thompson, James Wiseman, and the Minnesota pick become available.
I think a lot of Wiggins future will also depend on how Oubre does this season and whether there is any chemistry that develops. You can see why the W's let Barnes go. They need an SF that is a 3andD type. If Wiggins is their starting SG, his role will be different than playing with Klay who I think would resume his SG position rather than play SF. With Oubre playing well, Wiggins must execute and show he belongs on this team otherwise he's a goner. If Oubre stumbles, we are in trouble. KD was more than just 'big' for us.
There is no way all three of Oubre, Wiggins, and Klay are going to be on the roster next season. With the repeater tax, the math just doesn't work.
We all should root for Wiggins this season. If Wiggins does poorly, it puts *Klay*'s job in jeopardy. If Wiggins does poorly, it will take major assets to move his contract. Plus, I like Wiggins and want him to have a good career.
I don't see Klay's job in jeopardy. It's the splash brothers first and foremost in Lacob's mind. If someone has to go it is going to be either Wiggins or Oubre. I also want Wiggins to succeed but I don't have the confidence that he will. Wiggins is not a bust by any means and I think he can be moved if needs be. But, we'll see what transpires.