Assessing Warriors depth chart/roster after close preseason loss to the Kings
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Assessing Warriors depth chart/roster after close preseason loss to the Kings
Waiting on Wiseman, Warriors facing decisions on Mulder, end of bench
The best and happiest takeaway from last night’s 113-114 loss to the Sacramento Kings is that the Golden State Warriors point guard is still one of the best players in the world.
Stephen Curry scored 29 points in 28 minutes, including 5 made threee-pointers, and looked every bit as dominant as his history and accolades would suggest. But the questions swirling around this team were never about Curry. No, the questions - and there are plenty of them - involve pretty much everyone else.
The Non-Steph nosedive
In Curry’s 29 minutes on the court, the Warriors outscored the Kings by seven points. Sure, Golden State can bump his minutes up, Kerr has repeatedly stated that the goal for Curry is around 34 minutes, but will that be enough?
When Curry sat at the end of the first quarter, the reserves took a nine point lead and turned it into a four point defecit in less than five minutes of game time. Over the course of the season, this is a reality that will be an ongoing concern: can the team be good enough while Curry is on the court to survive the minutes without him.
Assuming he plays around 34 per night, that still leaves over a quarter of the game. The phrase “Stephortless” may take on a whole new meaning this season. When Curry is around, it makes the game easier for everyone; but the unpleasant flip side of that coin is that when Curry sits, the team isn’t just sitting talent, they’re sitting Curry’s broader impact.
The best and safest bet for support in these minutes would seem to default to the wing players, but both Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre are as unpredictable as they are exciting. Last night, both players chipped in 12 points (in 26, and 24 minutes, respectively) but neither was especially efficient or threatening.
As Kerr said after the game though, a single preseason game isn’t cause for panic in regards to Wiggins (a player on a max contract): "[H]is defense has been really good and that's been our focus. We want him to be a big time defender. Offensively, it's been fine. Kind of a typical preseason. Just getting his legs and his rhythm."
Still, for a max contract player, any flaw is amplified.
It’s also fair to point out that the Warriors came into this game without key reserve Eric Paschall, a player that figures to feature heavily (if not entirely drive) the Warriors second unit.
One other bright spot that can provide a ray of hopefull sunshine is that the Warriors frontcourt seems to be in a pretty good place. With rookie James Wiseman rumored to be making his first appearance at full team scrimmages, and Draymond Green expected back, there is a lot of help coming. Kevon Looney played well in the first preseason game, and this time out, it was Marquese Chriss’ turn.
Shaving down the back end of the roster
In the NBA, teams are allowed 15 players during the regular season - but may carry up to 20 during the offseason (which is where the Golden State Warriors roster currently sits). With the regular season starting less than a week from today, it’s crunch time on the deep end of the Warriors bench.
Of those 15 allowed contracts, up to two of them can be two-way contracts - which allow the players to float between the developmental G League, and the main NBA team.
So the math here isn’t hard to see. The Warriors have to cut at least 5 players in the coming days. The problem is that for a team in desperate need of outside shooting (the Warriors shot around 30% as team from deep last night), a player like Mulder would be a really smart bench player to have.
Because I haven’t found a great place where this is all spelled out, here’s the Warriors roster as it currently stands. Remember, the team can only carry 15 players into the season.
Steph Curry
Klay Thompson
Andrew Wiggins
Draymond Green
Kelly Oubre
James Wiseman
Kevon Looney
Kent Bazemore
Eric Paschall
Brad Wanamaker
Jordan Poole
Marquese Chriss
Damion Lee
Alen Smailagić
Nico Mannion (two-way doesn’t count against roster total)
———
Mychal Mulder
Juan Toscano-Anderson
Dwayne Sutton
Axel Toupane
Kaleb Wesson
You can see the problem right away.
The Warriors have one open roster spot left and two players (Mulder, Toscano-Anderson) on partially guaranteed deals.
If you are (like me) hoping that Mychal Mulder makes the roster, then thedecision is easy enough. But if the Warriors feel like they have enough depth on the wings, then Mulder might be seen as redundant. Alternatively, Golden State could cut everyone below that dotted line and leave a spot open for a mid-season addition.
One way or another, these are moves that are going to have to be made within the next few days.
[EDIT: Paragraphs above were revised to reflect the fact that Mannion’s two-way contract does not count against the 15-man roster limit. Thanks Twitter friend!]
Of the names above my cutoff line above, Alen Smailagić is frequently cited as a candidate for release, but the Warriors have already invested in him as a player project, and given that he hold a contract that is already guaranteed, the financial impact is non-trivial, given the Warriors tax situation (it’s bad, even after considering the recently agreed upon tax relief).
We knew this was coming, an easily forseeable result for a team that has committed $130.1 million to four players: Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, and Green. It’s just a bad reality for a team looking to discover gems at the bottom of their depth chart.
Next up:
Warriors will conclude their abbreviated preseason with another bout against the Kings tomorrow. Via Anthony Slater of The Athletic:
Kerr said it’s highly unlikely Wiseman or Green will be active Thursday, but he still felt like Saturday’s planned high-intensity scrimmage could be the final piece of prep they need to be cleared, which could set the stage for their return in time for the season opener Tuesday.
Assessing Warriors depth chart/roster after close preseason loss to the Kings
Let's talk a bit more about the middle of the bench and/or the starting spots, since those probably matter more than the 15th slot (though I expect Kerr to use at least a dozen guys every night). Also, with Covid absences, every team in the league will probably have way more starting lineups than usual and will have to go deeper into the bench too.
Ranked by expected amounts of important minutes (including two 2-way slots):
1-2. Steph and Dray will start every game and play ~30m/gm apiece unless something awful happens.
3. Wiggins is the obvious next guy up but I could see him getting nudged into more of a 2nd-unit role if one of the young'uns is coming along.
4-5. Oubre and Bazemore will get reliable minutes and I expect one or the other to start every game. More likely Oubre gets the start but Bazemore plays in crunch time. But either one of these guys could get bumped below the bench mob
6-8. One of Looney, Wiseman, and Chriss will start at center just about every game; the other two should get solid rotation minutes. They're behind the guys above mostly because they're splitting the center spot 3 ways. Looney is most likely to be in crunch time minutes because he doesn't really make mistakes, and mistakes in crunch time kill you. (Doubtlessly Kerr will give Wiseman a few "learning opportunities" in crunch time.)
9-12. Paschall, Wanamaker, Poole, Lee all get slotted into the 2nd unit (i.e. when Curry sits) based on matchup and the fit with the other guys above. Paschall probably gets the most pts/36 but his defense has to not suck; Wanamaker has the opposite problem. Lee is probably the best player out of these guys right now but with the least room for improvement, so his standing probably depends on how much the Warriors need someone who can be "good enough" immediately vs. developing for later. Poole could move out of this slot in either direction; if he gets hot, he displaces Baze/Oubre; if he's as cold as last year he'll be wondering if the G-League has a season.
13-16. The end of the bench. Whoever these guys are, they'll get garbage time minutes, and injury-replacement minutes, and that's... about it. Smiley, Mulder, JTA, and Mannion basically have a lock on these spots but it's a toss-up who's on a proper NBA contract and who isn't. Also, if the team uses the DPE or even reserves a roster slot for it, one of them is getting fully cut. They don't really overlap on positions, so who you want to keep depends most on who's injured or out sick. That's not a calculus I want to make.
17. Klay won't play. 😢
tl;dr I'm expecting opening day first-string lineup to be (by position):
1. Steph
2. Oubre (start) → Bazemore (crunch time)
3. Wiggins
4. Draymond
5. Looney (early season) → Wiseman (later in the season, but not in crunch time)
Alternatively, if Loon and Wiseman are both playing well, either Oubre or Wiggins get bumped while Draymond slides to the 3.
I assume Steph will keep his usual Q1, 2nd half Q2, Q3, 2nd half Q4 (crunch time) minutes whenever he's not in foul trouble. Draymond will play most of his minutes with Steph. One of the three centers will lay down screens and get some sweet dunks, *someone* will play catch-and-shoot, and the last spot is a wildcard.
Meanwhile the 1st-half Q2/Q4 lineup without Steph needs ball-handling, passing, and scoring. Certainly, Baze, Oubre, Paschall, Wanamaker, Chriss, and Poole are all in competition for these minutes. But most of all, I think this is where Wiggins has room to grow into a great role for the team: he can do a little of everything and his court vision in particular is probably his best emerging strength. That's kind of similar to the T-Wolves wanted him to do, though, and he couldn't really, so maybe he takes the wildcard spot in the Steph lineups instead. (Or maybe the team trades him, I dunno.)
I'm not too concerned with who the Warriors release or keep for the end of the bench. What I am concerned about is whether the starters will have enough cohesion to play as a team and learn their roles accordingly. Without this discipline and execution, they will not go very far. We've yet to see Green and Wiseman add their talents to the mix so the jury is still out as to how good the Warriors will be.
Kerr says he is emphasizing defense. Sound good but I still want to see the offensive production that will be necessary to beat the better teams. We lost a whole lot of ppg without KD and Klay. It has to be made up somehow. Oubre and Wiggins need to step up offensively which I haven't seen yet. I instinctively like Oubre and his energy but I am suspect of his consistent ability to play within Kerr's system. We'll see. Wiggins is a complete mystery to me. I don't understand a basketball player who is this quiet succeeding on a championship team. Kerr is happy with his defense but where is the aggressive play offensively? He is a void at rebounding and is not using his size at the basket. He is not a Klay replica. He doesn't shoot as effectively and needs to use his body to beat defenders. For me, he is a long shot to hang on this team past this season if he doesn't have a turnaround. This should be a special project for Kerr & Cie.
Can't wait for Wiseman to show us what he's got. Green will certainly be a welcome addition to the team chemistry and playmaking. And, as far as the bench goes, the guy I hoped would stick, Caleb Wesson, still has a game that needs to be seen. He is way better than he has seemed, can rebound and score. Seems like a smart player who needs minutes somewhere. Maybe they'll stick him in the gleague or in their back pocket. Mulder is repetitive, JTA just not enough. The rest don't have a chance. They seem to like Mannion. A two way is not a bad thing for him. Every team needs a redhead for some color.