270 Comments
author

sorry for the delay, you'll never believe it, but the preview is up and full of happy surprise news: https://dubnationhq.com/p/surprise-iguodala-returns-to-action

Expand full comment

Are you able to pin this?

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

OT: For those who visited Chase Center, do you know if the building with the Warriors memorabilia and warriors information and stand up warriors photosbthat you can get your picture taken with… That building. Does it have a name? Or do you know if it is open during times when there are no games? I can’t find it on the Chase Center, website.

Expand full comment

We all know it's not just sunshine and unicorns over the long-haul road of the NBA regular season. Hitting a few potholes may cause a tire to blow out, but does not typically affect the alignment of the vehicle. While extending this tepid 'road' metaphor just a bit further, I'll say I believe the tires have been well-kicked on the Dubs (band)wagon for more than a few years, and this quality craft is ready for the long-haul.

Now bring on these pesky Magic and let's repay them for what happened in Orlando.

#DNHQRULESOK #LOONFORALLNBADEFENSEFIRSTTEAM

Expand full comment

Let’s drive the Magic off the road.

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

I'm stealing one of Sleepy's bits:

Per 36 numbers:

Player A: 13.3 pts/9.3 rbs/2.4 assists/1.8 stls/58.1% TS

Player B: 21.7 pts/6.8 rbs/1.1 assists/2.1 stls/62.6% TS

Who are they? (both are/were Dubs)

Expand full comment

As the resident lawyer I'm here to inform you that stealing is against the law.

Expand full comment

Fortunately, Idaho has no extradition treaty with New York.

Expand full comment

As the resident incarcerated criminal, I’m here to say “Now you tell me.”

Expand full comment

Wow, DNHQ is on the approved inmate websites? Nice!

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

...

...

...

...

Player A is Otto Porter Jr. last year.

Player B is Patrick Baldwin Jr.

Small sample size alert, but PBJ looks like he's in the ballpark of OPJ on offense and he's played exactly 12 games.

Expand full comment

It will be really interesting to see how PBJ’s game develops as he physically matures and adds more weight and muscle. Does it slow him down, or amplify his inside game (boards and close-in shooting)?

Expand full comment

They're not at all alike in my view. OPJ was drafted 3d overall and, when healthy, has been an elite rebounder and good defender who is super efficient from distance. PBJ may be one of those things.

That comparison notwithstanding. PBJ could be a very solid contributor. Drafted at the end of the 1st round, he isn't burdened with Wiseman-like expectations. He is free to develop into what we might hope he is: a sweet-shooting back up stretch 4-5.

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

OPJ also got a max contract. That may not mean quite as much as it used to, but that's rarified air. If PBJ ever gets maxed out by the Dubs, that would be amazing.

Expand full comment

I can't say I'm worried about what contracts they got.

If the JK, JW, MM, JP experience has taught us anything, it's that draft position is not a great predictor of performance.

At the risk of getting on Asher's and Chaos's bad side, I'm higher on PBJ than Kuminga (good to elite shooting solves a lot of ills).

Expand full comment

A little early to know for sure, but the Warriors may have found a market inefficiency which they can exploit due to already having a solid core. You can understand why teams in or close to the lottery would be reluctant to take a flyer on damaged goods but the Warriors seem to figure that since the expectations are so low drafting at the end of the first round, it doesn't hurt to take a chance on somebody whose stock has dropped due to injury. That's especially true now when many player's drafted in the first round are "one and done" and there isn't much data to go on.

Expand full comment

I think it's also the fact that basketball is so popular internationally now that top end talent is just deep. I doubt there is objectively much different between even mid lottery picks and late first round talent. The Warriors have just figured out a good system for training. They're actually using the G league as a farm system, which really is what it should be there for.

Expand full comment

This POV makes a ton of sense to me. Of course the low first round picks are not exactly the Dubs’ choice. They could trade up or down, but mostly they are stuck at the end of the first round, so they have to figure out how to get the most out of their position. If Looney, Poole, and PBJ all turn into rotation pieces that would count as pretty amazing draft success.

Expand full comment

PBJ's profile is remarkably similar to Looney's. Same size. Highly regarded out of high school, injuries cause a drop into the late first round. Would love to have PBJ figure out a way to become an NBA rotation guy for a decade plus.

Expand full comment

PBJ has a much higher upside because of his perimeter shooting. His unblockable jumper is a beautiful thing to watch.

I’ve been pleasantly surprised with his athleticism. He’s not bouncy/twitchy, but the way glides up, down and around the court reminds me of Livingston’s rangy, effortless and efficient style.

Expand full comment

This, this and more this.

Expand full comment

Yep. Looney was considered a poor man's Kevin Durant before the hip issues happened.

Expand full comment

How was KD his first year?

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

The potential is there, though. PBJ's early per 36 rebound number (small sample size) is better than OPJs per 36 in his first three seasons.

In other words, OPJ may be an elite rebounder now, but he started out roughly where PBJ is.

And, as far as PBJs defense, I think he's going to be neutral to positive. He doesn't have OPJs athletic gifts, but he's as smart a player as OPJ, I think.

Expand full comment

Per my comment above, I really think PBJ’s “lack of athleticism” was a bill of goods. He’s bigger than OPJ and moves around far better than OPJ at this point in his career did as a Warrior.

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

Completely agree (as I did above). He's average (at worst) for his size now, and after a few years of a strength program, I think he might even be above average.

By Otto's 'athletic gifts' I mostly meant he seems to be a better leaper. They have very similar wingspans. So I probably put that wrong.

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

Today is the STEPH reevaluation methinks. Any word on it, yet...Nevermind, dang time difference; must be like 8 AM there....

Expand full comment

He’s already scrimmaging 5 on 5 with no restrictions, and slated to return six days from now v. the Spurs. The “re-evaluation” may make it more official, but I think it’s a formality at this point.

Expand full comment

Do you think Steph will play in Chicago?

Expand full comment

Oh fantastic!!

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

GREAT NEWS...Thanks, Sleepy....So, it truly begins....hope we stay around 6 games back....till he comes back...

Expand full comment

ANDRE IS BACK TONIGHT! DANG INSPIRATIONAL! I wonder if DUBS will give me a workout...Andre is a couple of decades younger, but, what the heck....lol

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023Liked by Daniel Hardee

Yesterday, Daniel, I posted in here on how timely your article was. Today, as the Dubs neatly slid into 6the place in the West overnight, one marvels at the parity and futility in away games of teams in the West at this point of their development/season. All made better knowing the Dubs' SURGE resulted down two starters and a depleted bench. Yep, we're going to be OK; just need to keep developing, win a couple more -magically- till we get healthier....On a side note, could it be.....here come LBJ'S loLakers?....

Expand full comment

SOL wrote last night: Chris Paul exited the game in the 1st half with right hip soreness and did not play in the 2nd half tonight.

[And it was late, and I wasn't on top of my game.]

Sooo... those aren't the hips of a champion.

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023Liked by Daniel Hardee

“Ball don’t lie.”

- Rasheed Wallace

“Hips don’t lie.”

- Shakira

Expand full comment

I sent you a reply in other thread re shoulder stuff

Expand full comment

Seeding. Den-Mem-Nop-Gsw looks like a pretty good bet for the top 4 seeds. I would hope to draw Den first and let Mem-Nop slug it out like the Sharks and the Jets with all the singing and dancing. If we are the 3 or 4 seed, I think we get Dal or Sac in the first round, either of which would be a blast. I think the 2 seed (2 rounds with home court) is out of reach. So, a path to the Finals will likely include being the road team 3 times. This ain't gonna be easy.

Expand full comment

When you’re a jet your a jet all the way from your first cigarette til your last dying day.

Imagining Ja and Zion dancing down the court Is quite an image.

Expand full comment

Denver scares me more than the other two, TBH.

Denver's top 6 is loaded: Jokic/Murray/Porter Jr./Gordon/Hyland/Jeff Green.

Expand full comment

Denver also has by far the best player out of DEN/MEM/NOP

Expand full comment

KCP and Bruce Brown

Expand full comment

Bruce Brown

Expand full comment

There are enough games left for us to jump 3-4 games up in the standing by the time we hit end of March. And then it'will be like random ending.

We are 4 games behind NO with a home game against them (although they have already won the tie breaker). So we can be #3.

How often is it that conference semifinals are played entirely by #1-#4 seeds AND conference finals is #1 vs #3 or #2 vs #3 ? [Update: About 25% of the time - 4 out of last 20 conference playoffs]. Last year, it didn't in WC.

If we can stay healthy, we can get to #3 and can have two HCA rounds like last year.

Expand full comment

We have two home games left against NOP.

Expand full comment

Oh yeah. So it is not a big leap to think that we can beat them in two of those games and leap frog over them in seedings.

Expand full comment

Our guys just need to run their own race :)

Expand full comment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzNVWPsB0mg

Posting the Ty Jerome/Point Forward episode again if anyones interested. Really enjoyed it.

Interesting points:

- Ty's background (Father = Coach, and he's a bit "hazelnut")

- College career and being #1 losing to #16 then bouncing back the next year

- Being on a tanking team first 3 years in OKC and that motivating him to play for us cause he has a winners mindset (anyone else read Build To Lose??! sounds interesting!)

- Someone in the comments mentioned: He fits the warriors gangster nerd mentality

Expand full comment

Really nice for Houston to be paying his $4.2 million contract this year while the Dubs only have to pay his 2-way.

Apparently OKC picked up his 22-23 option in October, then traded him to Houston who promptly cut him.

Expand full comment

Great stuff, thanks! Loved the discussion on race (Andre: “I didn’t think you were white — I thought you were Mexican,” lol). Also just generally loved Ty Jerome — such a chill, smart, and engaging dude. Really hope we can keep him around, not just for this season (incl. playoffs) but for years to come. I think he’s already better than Livingston was for most of his seasons with us, with potential to improve as he gains confidence, swag, and comfort in Kerr’s system.

Expand full comment

Livingston provided excellent defense though, while Jerome is not as impactful at that end. Big fan of what he can do offensively though.

Expand full comment

TJ's last 10 games are off the charts good. 22 minutes/G with roughly .49/.42/.93 splits. 10.9 points and 3.4 assists. Obviously they'll be some regression, but he may be an ideal 3d/4th guard who like idot pairs well with Steph because of his size. He's only 26, so he's exactly what Myers was referring to earlier in the year when he was referencing youngish veteran players brought in as free agents.

If he does stick, not sure I see a role going forward for Rollins. But Ryan is 5 years younger and the Dubs have time on his contract to develop him.

Expand full comment

Great points. To me the secret sauce to being a championship team is having a core of guys who are the “right age” — that 25-30 sweet spot where the grown man experience and strength and young legs coalesce. The Warriors last year were a bit anomalous in that their Big 3 were a bit past the sweet spot, and their young guns were a bit too young. But they still had core of “right age” guys — Wiggs, Loon, Otto, Gary, Damion, Juan — who came up huge and helped them bring it home.

This year’s roster was in serious risk of being out of balance due to an over-polarization of old dudes and younguns. Which is why the additions of Donte, Ty, and Anthony have been so huge.

Expand full comment

I still don’t get the feeling of calm control from him that I do with DDV.

Expand full comment

If players were dogs, JW would be a great Dane, PBJ would be a Weimaraner, DDV would be an (adult) golden retriever, TJ would be a German Shepherd, AL would be a standard black poodle, JP Would be any one of those crazy dogs that runs all over frantically trying to throw itself up in the air to catch frisbees, and best of all from last year, GP2 would be a border collie. And like his playing , MM’s dogginess is difficult to characterize.

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

Are you talking on court or off court? On court, I’d argue it’s more the opposite: Jerome is the much more controlled and polished lead guard — better ballhandler, better floor general, better passer, much craftier shot creator and finisher.

Donte for his part is the much better rebounder and defender, and just generally more of an NBA-caliber athlete in terms of strength and athleticism.

Yin-yang. I love ‘em both.

Expand full comment

In terms of calm and controlled, I’d rank them:

1. Jerome

2. DVV

3.

4.

5. Poole

Expand full comment

How did Poole’s ranking go up so much? :)

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

Great discussion guys. As Sleepy said, ''yin-yang.''

Expand full comment

Great article. I'm not worried, I do expect the Dubs to round into form, but I do believe that form may not net a Chip. I can't see Loon & Dray getting through 4 rounds without 12 minutes of regular minutes from Wiseman to keep them from getting worn down. Whether by his play or Kerr's restrictions, I don't believe he will be ready when we need him. I would like to think Kerr would use the regular season to determine to what extent Wiseman could help, but barring a serious injury to Dray or Loon, he just doesn't seem willing to do what it will take to find out.

In my mind, the lack of a legit 3rd big to back up Loon & Dray in the playoffs will be the reason we get bounced this year. And neither Ty Jerome or Anthony Lamb are going to solve this issue. However, if Kerr refuses to play Wiseman, there is one wild card out there for that 15th roster spot. Nemanja Bjelica. Could the Dubs do what they did with Bogut and bring Bjelica back for the end of the season and playoff run? Frankly, he is the only big out there who would really fit in with our system. We don't need an All-Star. We need 10-14 minutes a game for a big to hold down the fort while Dray and Loon catch a breath. It's a thought. And despite Ty and Lamb playing so well, I would take Beli over them in a heartbeat.

Expand full comment

I think you're underselling JMG. I'm not saying he's Ben Wallace, but by the end of the year, I think we'll be getting solid minutes from him on defense (we don't really need an offensive 3rd string center). JMG has been looking much better lately.

Would I love to have Bjeli back? Sure. Barring that, I think a JMG/Wiseman third string center rotation is fine.

Expand full comment

Yeah, I'm okay with Wise/JMG. I just don't think Kerr is. I think Wiseman could be really helpful, but only if he gets enough regular season runway to etch out a firm 10-12 minutes in the rotation. One thing has been evident from his short career, the more he plays, the more he shows incremental improvement. No guarantees, but one thing is sure, Wiseman won't be dependable in the playoffs if he is not given the opportunity to be dependable in the regular season. He is not going to yo-yo in and out of the lineup the rest of the year and become an overnight playoff sensation. The Wiseman we would all love to see later cannot become that Wiseman without a commitment to his development, on the court, today. I thought of Beli as an option because I don't believe Kerr is willing to make that commitment today, thus leaving the door open for a big.

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

There are still 30 games left. I think Wise is going to get a chance to show what he can do.

Also, I'm virtually certain Draymond is going to start getting some rest DNPs as soon as we get JMG and Wiseman back.

We'll see. But, honestly, I've seen enough from Wise that I think he can give us 5 minutes a game in the playoffs. Just don't have him in there when Luka or Jokic are roaming around. :)

Expand full comment

Draymond’s gonna have those too-many-techs nights off as well.

Expand full comment

So are you saying the Dubs don’t win last year’s Championship without Bjelly?

Expand full comment

The only way to compare a player like Bjelica to players like Ty and Lamb is in context to the other players that will play with Bjelica. I can't conceive of taking Bjelica over our 2 two ways. Haven't you been watching how they play, how clutch they've become, how well the ball is controlled when they are on the floor? They can score, defend, and shoot the 3 ball. Now, if you said ADD Bjelica to this mix, we'd be talking about something with possibility here. We need a bigger guy, but whether Bjelica is that guy or not, I'm not sure. More and more I feel that big guy is also not Wiseman.

Expand full comment

If healthy, I don't think Ty or Anthony crack the playoff rotation. At guard and/or playmaker, Steph, Klay, Poole & DDV will all play heavy minutes and Andre provides the additional play making that Ty might pick up. For wing depth, Klay, Wiggs, JK, Poole in small lineups, and Andre provide a lot of coverage, with Moody and PBJ available on the edge. I agree that Lamb is ahead of Moody and PBJ. But after Loon and Dray, all we have is JMG? And we have to fight our way thru Jokic, Stevie Adams, Zion, Sabonis, Ayton, etc.? I just think its asking too much of Dray and Loon to run the gauntlet, again, with little backup. The question is, what player is out there who could help support our two key defenders?

Expand full comment

People sometimes forget that Bjeli was very good against other Eastern European bigs like Luka and Jokic. Provided experience no other player had.

Expand full comment

Solid point this. Euro MVP battles were great and Bjeli definitely held his own #uncannybjeli

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

So glad that Suns, Blazers, and Clippers lost to pave the way for us but did the Lakers have to win again?

Expand full comment

Anything that keeps Wemby out of the hands of New Orleans is probably a good thing.

Expand full comment

Of course it's a lottery so even the worst team in the league has no better than a 14% chance (I think that's right) of getting the 1st pick.

Expand full comment

This feels like election night with our team surging up the polls! Can we go any higher before our next game?

Expand full comment

Yeah, if the mavs and kings lose tomorrow we almost move up… but then that means we’re rooting for the lakers to best the kings… I dont think i can do that 🤢

Expand full comment

Lakers have won 4 games in a row. JTA played in all four of those games. I think Lakers have found their good luck charm.

Expand full comment

What was LeBron’s big news conference about tonight?

Expand full comment

Good news: Wiggins and Igoudala both probable for tomorrow’s game. Per the official NBA injury report.

Iggy!! Really!!??

Bad news: GP2 slight ankle sprain, re-injured and back to the sidelines 😰.

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023·edited Jan 7, 2023

Poor Gary. I will never stop rooting for the guy.

Expand full comment
Jan 7, 2023Liked by Daniel Hardee

Dear Luka,

Thanks for keeping the 4th seed warm for us. But, we're going to need it in a couple of games.

Appreciate the effort.

Expand full comment