Apricot's 2025 NBA Draft Tourney Finals: LJ Cryer, Amari Williams, Brice Williams, Tamar Bates, John Tonje

GSW invites, you vote

The index piece for Apricot’s 2025 NBA Draft Tournament is here. It describes the selection process, our stellar history of voting, why BPM is important, how Apricot’s Clunky Comps works, and all other gory details.

Intro: The Draft Tournament is to help you enjoy the draft

The tournament is designed for people who are not draft experts to catch up at a casual pace on prospects in the Warriors range. For this reason, I have sliced it up into a series of smaller votes instead of a massive 16+ player scouting report. These will be spaced out over the next few weeks until the NBA Draft.

The ultimate goal is for you to develop opinions and attachments about the different prospects, so you can

• argue with others,

• dream about the future,

• enjoy the draft with more suspense and emotional investment,

• be angry that your favorite wasn’t selected,

• and then in the future tell everyone how you had it right and the drafters were a bunch of idiots.

Despite our stellar track record, it’s unlikely we’ll guess exactly whom the Warriors will draft.

So it’s time for more! The Warriors have MIA’s second round pick at #41. Normally, you might say, why bother even thinking about this pick, because, in that range, the chances that the draftee will make an NBA roster is quite small.

However, the Warriors have really set the bar high, with

• 2024 #52 pick Quinten Post (feisty stretch 5 and stroopwafel enthusiast),

• 2023 #57 draft pick Trayce Jackson-Davis (solid big man and occasional starter) and

• 2022 #55 pick Gui Santos (energy guy and very occasional spot starter).

And yes yes everyone always wants to trade the pick for someone ready to contribute. Please don’t be obvious and boring and suggest that.

That’s like going to Disneyland and explaining that everyone there is exploited labor and that feline leukemia is the #1 killer of cats.

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This is the final round where the winner of each group competes in a single showdown! I’ll list each winner with their micro scouting report and also a link to the original post so you can look at the comments of others, the scouting reports of their competitors, etc.

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Group A winner: LJ Cryer

• Group A: Johni Broome, Caleb Grill, LJ Cryer

• LJ Cryer 74% ← THE WINNER

• Caleb Grill 21%

• Johni Broome 5%

LJ Cryer, Houston, 6-1, #11 BPM

• ESPN Givony 5-30 #99

Yardbarker:

L.J. Cryer is a proven, battle-tested scoring guard who brings elite shooting, composure, and winning habits to the floor. He profiles best as a scoring combo guard at the next level, capable of spacing the floor and creating offense in spurts. While his size may limit some aspects of his game defensively, his IQ, toughness, and shot-making give him clear value as a reliable contributor and pro prospect.

SI.com:

A proven scorer, he’s reliable from the line and gets there with good frequency. He’s an elite 3-point shooter as well, which is exactly why he’s an easy fit at the NBA level. Any player that lacks positional size in the modern NBA must be a top-notch shooter, and Cryer is just that.

He is in half court sets as a spot-up shooter, but can also score off the bounce. When it comes to getting a bucket, there’s few better than him at the guard position. He’s highly efficient on the perimeter as well as in the midrange, with a quality package of runners, floaters and jumpers.

While his assist numbers might not be the highest, Cryer is also an underrated facilitator. At the NBA level, he should be able to play at either guard spot.

Apricot: He’s one of the best shooters in the country, and a leader of one of the best teams in the country. And he’s short (6-1) which makes his college impact extra impressive. And yet overall Clunky Comps considers Cryer not NBA Draft level. You can see Seth Curry and Kyle Guy in the list if you’re an optimist.

Group B winner: Amari Williams

• Group B: Kam Jones, Amari Williams, Sion James, Steven Crowl

• Kam Jones 31%

• Amari Williams 36% ← THE WINNER

• Sion James 32%

• Steven Crowl 1%

Whew, that was a tight one.

Amari Williams, Kentucky, 7-0, #44 BPM

• BR 2025-05-28 #50, ESPN Givony 5-30 #60, TheAthletic 2025-06-10 #75

NBA.com

Overview
Amari Williams is center from Nottingham, England, who played the 2024-25 season with the Kentucky Wildcats after transferring from Drexel University. During his graduate season at Kentucky, Williams averaged 10.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game while shooting 56.1 percent from the field. He started all 36 games, leading the team in rebounds and field goal percentage, and tied for the team lead in assists with 115, the most ever by a 7-footer at Kentucky. Williams achieved a rare statistical milestone, becoming only the second player in SEC history to record at least 375 points, 300 rebounds, 100 assists, 40 blocks, and 20 steals in a single season. He also posted 10 double-doubles, including eight in SEC play, and notched a season-high 22 points against Arkansas and 15 rebounds against Tennessee. Prior to his time at Kentucky, Williams was a standout at Drexel, where he was a three-time Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) Defensive Player of the Year and a two-time First-Team All-CAA selection.

Analysis
Williams is a physically imposing big man with a 7-foot-5 wingspan, known for his defensive prowess and basketball IQ. He excels as a rim protector and rebounder, using his length to alter shots and secure boards. His defensive versatility enables him to guard multiple positions effectively. Offensively, Williams is a capable playmaker from the high post, demonstrating strong passing instincts and vision. He serves as an effective facilitator, often initiating offense and finding open teammates. While not a primary scoring option, he is efficient around the rim and can finish plays as a lob threat. Williams’ leadership and unselfish play have been lauded by coaches and teammates.

Projection
Williams projects as a reliable rotational big man at the NBA level, capable of contributing as a defensive anchor and facilitator. His combination of size, defensive acumen and passing ability makes him an ideal fit for teams seeking a versatile center who can impact the game on both ends of the floor. A realistic NBA comparison for Williams is Jakob Poeltl of the Toronto Raptors – a tough and skilled center who contributes with defense, passing and efficient scoring around the basket. Currently, Williams is projected as a second-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.

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Apricot: The Clunky Comps aren’t that bad. There are a number of decent backup centers and even a Nic Claxton. And what Clunky needs to realize is that Amari is one of the most fun chaotic big men to watch. He has excellent court vision and is a passer with flair. He also loves to dribble, enjoying running early offense and driving more than you’d think for a shot blocking big with no jumper.

Group C winner: Brice Williams

• Group C: RJ Luis Jr., Kobe Johnson, Ryan Nembhard, Brice Williams

• RJ Luis Jr 2%

• Kobe Johnson 7%

• Ryan Nembhard 5%

• Brice Williams 85% ← THE WINNER

Brice Williams, Nebraska, 6-7, #121 BPM

• BR 2025-05-28 #54, ESPN Givony 5-30 #71, TheAthletic 2025-06-10 #43, Yahoo O'Connor 5-30 #51

• Yahoo O'Connor 6-13: Williams is a big wing who thrives on making tough midrange jumpers and movement 3s off the catch. He’s an older prospect at age 24, but still belongs on the draft radar because of his spark-plug scoring skill set, which is why the Clippers could draft him.

NBA.com:

Overview
Son of former NBA player Henry Williams, Brice was born and raised in North Carolina before starting his collegiate career with the Charlotte 49ers. He missed the entire 2021-22 season due to a knee injury but returned to action the following year before transferring to Nebraska. After a solid first season with the Cornhuskers, Williams exploded as a sixth-year senior in 2024-25, averaging 20.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.1 steals per game. He was always an elite 3-point shooter, making 38.5% over five seasons, but he attempted a career-high 5.3 shots from deep in his final campaign. Brice finished with single-game (43 points in double OT loss to Ohio State) and single-season (713 points, surpassing James Palmer Jr’s 708) school records at Nebraska.

Analysis
Williams is a 6-foot-7 shooting guard who’s crafty in the paint and will stress defenses in transition. He’s adept at navigating screens and in catch-and-shoot situations, plus he has a high release point on his jumper, which allows him to get quality looks even when the defense is in a solid position. Williams isn’t a natural playmaker but will make the highlight pass to an open teammate when defenses collapse. Defensively, Williams has the size and length to be a solid wing defender but will have to fill out his frame to guard the NBA’s best scorers.

Projection
Williams’ bucket-getting nature draws comparison to T.J. Warren (6’8, 200) and Caris LeVert (6’6, 205). If he focuses on being a sharpshooter, Williams’ game could resemble Michael Porter (6’10, 218) or Cameron Johnson (6’8, 210). There are also flashes of Mikal Bridges (6’6, 209) in Williams’ game, but the Nebraska product would need to buy in defensively to match that projection.

Apricot: BPM admires Brice’s good TS% on high Usage and low Foul rate. He’s a deadeye shooter: 38% 3P on a big sample size of 459 3PA, plus 86.8% FT on a similar whopping big 355 FTA. He’s good at it and does it a lot. His other qualities are run-of-the-mill, which might be okay for a team starved for wings who can shoot.

Clunky Comps has comps to a lot of undrafted or low-drafted players, along with disappointments Jerome Robinson and Jimmer Freddette. Only Luke Kennard and Allen Crabbe stand out as a productive NBA players. However, Clunky has been wrong before…

Group D winner: Tamar Bates

• Group D: Tamar Bates, Arthur Kaluma, Kobe Sanders, Micah Peavy, Alijah Martin

• Tamar Bates 67% ← THE WINNER

• Arthur Kaluma 7%

• Kobe Sanders 2%

• Micah Peavy 14%

• Alijah Martin 9%

Tamar Bates, Missouri, 6-5, #123 BPM

• BR 2025-05-28 #56, ESPN Givony 5-30 #68, TheAthletic 2025-06-10 #72

NBA.com

Overview
Tamar Bates is from Kansas City, Kansas and began his collegiate career at Indiana in 2021-22. He started his first game as a sophomore, making five starts in 35 appearances that season. He then transferred to Missouri. As a junior, Bates started most of his games (25 of 32) and averaged 13.5 points, 3.0 rebounds and 1.3 assists. He started all 34 appearances as a senior, averaging 13.3 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.3 steals in 25.9 minutes. He was also SEC Player of the Week in December of 2024 and was voted to the NABC Central District Second Team for 2025.

Analysis
Bates is an efficient scorer, shooting 51/40/95 as a senior with similar numbers as a junior. He’s primarily a play finisher rather than a setup man. He can hit the 3, but it’s also advantageous when he draws contact near the rim since he’s an elite free-throw shooter. Given his height, he’s also solid on the offensive glass. There’s defensive upside as well with a relatively high steal rate.

Projection
Bates projects as a complementary wing player at the NBA level and is projected as a second-round draft pick. He could draw comparisons to players like Norman Powell and Isaiah Joe. Many teams are looking for a knockdown 3-point shooter who can play defense. Bates may have to begin as a bench player, but he could scale into a starter.

Ersin Demar:

Bates is one of the best touch-based shooters in college basketball. As a fourth-year senior, he continuously adapted and found a niche to impact games at Indiana, where he spent the first two years of his career. Hereafter, Bates moved to the SEC, committing to Coach Gates and the Missouri Tigers, with whom he had a breakout season, scoring over thirteen points per game while leading the conference in free-throw percentage in back-to-back seasons.

Shooting is the most-wanted skill in the NBA. But shooting enough won’t warrant a roster spot. Bates’ game evolved throughout the years, where he fits into a floor-spacing complementary guard. After a stellar performance at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament and the G League Elite Camp, the buzz continues as Bates earned himself a spot at the NBA Draft Combine. The feasibility of his carving out a role and what his niche skill is forms the emphasis of this scouting report.

Apricot: Bates shot a scorching 39.7% 3P and 94.6% FT last year, and in case you thought that was a fluke, his career shooting numbers are 39.2% on 222 3PA and 93.6% on 187 FTAs. He is a bonafide marksman. He also had a very good Steal rate, so he’s active on defense. Overall, BPM found him eh on defense (+1.3 DBPM).

Clunky Comps didn’t find many comps (I usually set the cutoff at 0.80 similarity). It’s a bit reminiscent of the case of Sion James. The incomparable nature may have to do with Bates’s low Usage rate and low 3PA per 100 possessions paired with his absurdly good shooting percentages.

Some interesting names appear if you allow less simliarity though, and amusingly also include Chaz Lanier (2024) and Caleb Grill, two of the deadliest shooters in the NCAA who are prospects in this 2025 draft.

Group E winner: John Tonje

• Group E: John Tonje, Koby Brea, Max Shulga, Chaz Lanier, Eric Dixon

• John Tonje 38% ← THE WINNER

• Kony Brea 11%

• Max Shulga 8%

• Chaz Lanier 18%

• Eric Dixon 24%

John Tonje, Wisconsin, 6-5, #17 BPM

• BR 2025-05-28 #51, ESPN Givony 5-30 #42, TheAthletic 2025-06-10 #35, Yahoo O'Connor 5-30 #45

• The Ringer Mann 6-10: Tonje’s journey toward NBA prospect status has been … circuitous. Even though he was barely recruited as a high schooler, he eked out a place on Colorado State’s roster in the fall of 2019, clawed his way to a productive final season there, transferred to Missouri but had his fifth year disrupted by a foot injury, and then finally starred as an All-American at Wisconsin. His ability to shoot off the bounce and off the catch has propelled him through the maze, and it’ll most likely be the thing that dictates how much further he goes. His shot will most definitely need to speed up, but this past season he splashed in 42.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s and nearly 35 percent of his off-the-dribble 3s, both on sizable samples. Tonje’s handle will also need to shape up if he wants to continue in the heavy on-ball role he enjoyed at Wisconsin. Ultimately, he projects as the kind of classic second-side scorer who often gets picked late in the second round. His wide frame and hard-braking style in the paint might compensate for his ball security issues the same way they did in college, where he generated an obscene amount of free throw attempts this past season.

• Yahoo O'Connor 6-13: Tonje will enter the NBA at age 24 with some readymade skills as an off-ball movement scorer and shooter. But his athletic ceiling and defense will determine if he’s more than just a backup. It wouldn’t be so bad if that’s all he tops out as for the Bulls, who have Coby White currently leading the backcourt.

Apricot:

Apricot: Today we look at a cluster of sweet shooting prospects who are falling into the second round: Chaz Lanier, Koby Brea, Max Shulga, and Eric Dixon. They are all shooting 37%+ 3P and also above 80% FT over their college career.

But they all have meh to bad defensive BPM stats. Here are their percentiles out of the Top 1000 players.

John Tonje is my sleeper pick. His DBPM is on the high side of meh. His highlights show three-level scoring, he was an important player on a team that made an NCAA run and almost dragged Wisconsin into the Sweet 16 with a 37 - 4 - 4 monster game with 0 TOV before narrowly falling to BYU.

And Clunky Comps, oh boy. I am not entirely sure why Clunky loves Tonje but she LOVES him. Buddy Hield, Jamal Murray, Damian Lillard in their draft years?? If you’ve been following Clunky Comps… she hates everybody. You’ll plug in the most exciting prospect and she’ll bring you down to earth. Elsewhere in the article, I also include the Clunky Comps for the other snipers, who are to the naked eye not too far away from Tonje’s profile. Nope. Clunky spat out the most unencouraging and dire comps for every single other sniper.

So even though I question the meaningfulness of Clunky Comps, this is a really striking output that also happens to be in line with what my eye test says.

To try to figure out why Clunky Comps loves Tonje and not the others, I did some more statistical analysis.

Green means the prospect’s stat is higher than Tonje. The units are standard deviations with population the Top 1000 players.

So for instance, Dixon is way worse at defense and efficient shooting and getting to the free throw line, but had higher usage rate. Lanier was worse at offensive efficiency and offensive effect, better at steals. Shulga was better at defense, OREBs and playmaking AST and A/TO. But he was way less efficient on offense on lower usage. Finally, Brea is worse at offense on much much lower Usage, worse at defense, and worse at getting to the line. His Effective FG% was quite higher (Brea does have stupendous 3P% this year); AST/TOV was a lot better, but he had not too many AST…

So after all that, Clunky has convinced me that Tonje is the best of the batch.

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How To Vote

Simply vote in this embedded poll. If you are moved, you can make a COMMENT VOTE that counts as 10 votes. However, I will not count any vote unless it has

• some justification of your vote

• exactly one hashtag with the FIRST name of your candidate, #LJ, #AMARI, #BRICE, #TAMAR, #JOHN

  • I know many of you are very creative, but any deviations from these instructions will make my life harder and annoy me.