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Eric Apricot's avatar

I enjoy Hollinger even when I don’t agree with him. Here is his interesting take on JK. His BORDS estimates JK’s value at $24m/y. But he acknowledges JK is hard to estimate.

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To explain this statistically, there is a lot in Kuminga’s track record that suggests maybe he just isn’t all that good. Most notably, his career shooting marks are 33.2 percent from 3 and 69.6 percent from the line. He’s just OK as a defender, seems to have poor instincts for reading the game at both ends and is prone to spectacular bouts of dribble blindness. The Warriors have pushed him to be a beast on the glass, but historically, players rarely change their stripes in this realm, and his rebound rate has stayed right around 10.0 percent his whole career — fine for a combo forward but unremarkable.

On the other hand, Kuminga has one marker that is off the charts: his free-throw rate. Drawing fouls at a high rate is an innate signal of talent (even if some grifting is involved) because players who do so are continually creating advantages that force defenses to react adversely, desperately or both.

Kuminga drew 10 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions last season in a non-trivial sample of 1,144 minutes. That was the eighth-highest rate of free-throw earning in the league among players with at least 1,000 minutes played. In other seasons, it hasn’t been as high, but Kuminga still has drawn an impressive 7.3 per 100 for his career.

Here's the thing: Last season, 17 NBA players played at least 1,000 minutes and earned at least 8.5 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions. Of those, 16 have played in an NBA All-Star Game. The other one is Kuminga.

Even if you lower the bar to his career rate of 7.3 per 100, the list of players to clear the 7.0 mark is almost entirely past, present or future All-Stars (i.e. Franz Wagner). The three worst players on the list are Deni Avdija, RJ Barrett and Bennedict Mathurin. Of the 35 players besides Kuminga to clear 7.0 in at least 1,000 minutes last season, 28 have played in at least one All-Star Game.

At any rate, you can see Golden State’s dilemma. The Warriors have a talented 22-year-old who might prove to be very, very good in another team’s system but seems highly unlikely to thrive in their own. Also, the Warriors would handcuff their other offseason options by re-signing Kuminga at any remotely market-level price, because it would push them to the first apron and require some limbo building the rest of the roster while staying below the second apron.

The best outcome for everyone would likely be a sign-and-trade that brings back small contracts and draft compensation, but that’s always easier to theorize about in June than to execute in a small time window in July.

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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6418543/2025/06/16/nba-free-agents-2025-lebron-james-harden-jonathan-kuminga/?campaign=13892444&source=athletic_targeted_email&userId=16758626

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Eric Apricot's avatar

An oral history of Warriors' 2015 NBA championship on 10th anniversary of title at https://bsky.app/profile/nbcswarriors.bsky.social/post/3lrqjdexbuc2f

This looks good!

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