2025 NBA Draft starts 5:00pm PT; GSW drafts Thurs in Rd 2; plus Draft Tourney winner

This could be a boring day for GSW

Eric Apricot

Jun 25, 2025

167

Here are the Draft Tournaments and Live Draft Day threads since 2020.

Not too late to say I TOLD YOU SO
The Winner of Apricot’s 2025 Draft Tourney is… John Tonje
How to watch the First Round, psychologically
How to watch the First Round, literally
Before the draft, If you have time to kill
The APRIBOT v1 Top 90 Big Draft Board

Not too late to say I TOLD YOU SO

FYI, I have put together a simpler version of void's old Big Board at this Google Form.

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSc67-C3fDIe223zrGPU5ldfcujwo8ICafVIswC8Zn42gYZm1A/viewform?usp=header

Here you can rate some or all of the prospects in the Tourney on a 5 point scale and I'll make the results publicly accessible. This will be the proof you need so that in the future you can tell other people I TOLD YOU SO.

The Winner of Apricot’s 2025 Draft Tourney is… John Tonje

The Finals: LJ Cryer, Amari Williams, Brice Williams, Tamar Bates, John Tonje
- The whole tournament
LJ Cryer 1%
Amari Williams 31%
Brice Williams 12%
Tamar Bates 22%
John Tonje 35% ← THE WINNER

It was a close one. Here are a few of your comments:

Arash: #John: Scoring 20 ppg on an elite 65 TS% while also being a good athlete with solid size at 6’5 just can’t be ignored. He has some weaknesses in defense and passing, but I think he can become a plus defender with a sized down offensive role.

Attila The Hun: #AMARI As Eric has noted, it's in our DNA to want a good big man, and we rarely get him. Amari won't be the next Joker but he might be the rim defender, rebounder, and lob threat we need against big teams; his 7'5" wingspan would give us a pterodactyl in the paint. Apparently he can pass too. He and Post could be a nice pair for the future. The cost: Unless TJD gets traded, this probably means Looney is gone.

CNB: #TAMAR. I think his shot is the most pro-ready skill of any of these guys. He and Brice seem similar to me, and Brice is a couple inches taller, but Tamar is younger and the slightly better shooter. For no reason that I can actually articulate (i.e., gotta listen to my heart and make a knee-jerk, gut reaction that I'm pulling out of my butt), Tamar's style of play looks to me like he'd fit better in the GS offense than Brice.

Loonatic (from Group Stage): #Williams by far, in this lot. What's not to like? He can shoot with range on C&S, off the dribble, in motion, is good at the stripe. Has a decent handle, gets fouls, looks to have a serviceable first step. Maybe he's a terrible rebounder or lax defender, but those things are learnable. I know it's a highlight reel, but he does a lot of things there I never saw Kennard do in a pro game, for example.

Loon Gehrig (from Group Stage): #Cryer. Cryer commits to physical defense, but he'd probably be hunted in most situations anyway. He's still lolOLD for a prospect (it's the 2nd rounder, though), but he's been a bit more consistent over the seasons in his shooting than Grill (both FT and 3pt). He'd have one role: scorer, and he'd probably be good at it.

Thanks to all for participating! The journey is truly the point of this Tourney. However, as a side effect, we’ve been collectively really smart these past 6 years, so I hope we keep that streak going.

How to watch the First Round, psychologically

This will probably be boring for Dub Nation. The things that would make it relevant to GSW would be:

GSW is involved in a trade.
- Seems unlikely that GSW will trade into the first round on purpose this year, as they were reported to be unexcited about the draft after the Top 10 which is why they traded their pick #20 to MIA in the Jimmy Butler trade.
- It is conceivable that GSW could trade cash (up to $6m) and other considerations to get another 2nd round pick. I would love for GSW to have two swings at a long shot success.
- The most painful possibility is GSW trades out of the draft entirely. This also seems unlikely, as GSW needs good cheap contracts for salary cap purposes.
- Of course, other trades are possible.
  - In 2023, our minds were blown on Draft Day by the Chris Paul - Jordan Poole trade.
  - In 2024, on 2nd Draft Day, GSW traded their pick for Lindy Waters III. And then traded to get the pick back and took Quinten Post.
Players that GSW were targeting are taken in the first round.
- My Draft Tourney was designed to avoid first round draftees, but every year there’s a surprise reach or two.

How to watch the First Round, literally

Round 1: Wed June 25, 5:00 Pacific | ABC/ESPN (Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y.)
Round 2: Wed June 26, 5:00 Pacific | ESPN (ESPN’s Seaport District Studios in New York)

It’s honestly a bit old-fashioned to (only) watch this on TV. If you want to be 5-10 minutes ahead of the televised draft, follow shamsbot.bsky.social, or follow this comment section.

So, if you don’t want spoilers, turn off Bluesky and all social media, and avoid this comment section. Everyone is encouraged to post news here as soon as you have it from a reputable source.

Before the draft

To know which player you hope will fall to GSW, check out the 2025 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament. This is also your last chance to put your rankings in writing. You are not allowed to complain in the future about the GSW draft if you don’t put your own opinions in writing in advance.

This will be in some sense the most unpredictable GSW draft since I started paying very close attention in 2020, simply because there are so many possible players to pick as you go further into the draft.

2020: it was pretty clear that GSW would try to trade down like everyone else and, failing that, take Wiseman.
2021: it was pretty clear that once Kuminga looked like he might fall to #7 that he would be GSW’s pick. #14 was less certain but we all liked Moody and he was mocked higher than #14, so once he was available, he seemed like the obvious pick.
2022: We knew we couldn’t predict anything at all with such a low pick or expect any great prospect. At #28 you would be delighted to get a role player. Also we were all ecstatic about the championship so there was no real time to worry about the draft.
2023: This was very unpredictable. Beforehand I wrote:
- At #19, they will try to trade down (I’d be shocked if GSW trade up). If they can’t, they will probably take a more seasoned prospect (Jaquez? Kris Murray?) who can win now; or maybe a darling of statistics (Podz? Jackson-Davis?). Or… At #19 you can irrationally dream about whatever lottery prospect fell to you. If a hotshot Top 10 prospect falls to #19 (Nick Smith? Gradey D?) maybe take them; or maybe take the best shooter left (Hawkins, Howard, Bufkin); or maybe take a draft and stash flier (Nnaji?) or… And with a new GM, that makes things even more unpredictable…
2024: This was also unpredictable. Before the draft, I identified four key targets: Antonio Reeves, Cam Spencer, Branden Carlson and… Quinten Post.
2025 draft night will be interesting. It’s an unusually weak second round.

If you have time to kill

Instead of having a nervous breakdown, consider listening to one of my all-time favorite podcasts from a couple of years ago. It’s a behind-the-scenes look at the draft room from someone who was with the Suns during the Devin Booker draft…

Among the revelations:

there’s a special private chat with every team where the draft runs about 10 picks ahead of the broadcast, so there is time to pull off trades that depend on players being available. No, Woj is not in the chat; it’s ahead of even Woj.
the value and non-value of workouts
so by draft week, you’ve done your evaluations of prospects and have a Big Board. Your main work is evaluating trade offers, especially scouting current NBA players and projecting team success to properly value future draft picks
on draft night, half the league sends last minute trade offers for your pick
how he got Booker wrong (undervaluing him by overvaluing on-ball defense)
how to put together a summer league around your draft pick
and more

The APRIBOT v1 Top 90 Big Draft Board

APRIBOT stands for “APRIBOT is Prospect Ranking Inference of Best Overall Talent”.
It’s an amusing experimental algorithm which simply blends analytics and draft analysts.
APRIBOT v1 doesn’t know about non-college players so it won’t rank them. This includes players like Cedric Coward who are NCAA players who were injured most of the year so they don’t have reliable college stats.
I very much don’t agree with all the rankings, but I agree more than I thought I would and the intensely hot takes make a certain kind of sense. E.g. Ace Bailey at 42? CMB, Clifford and Richardson at 2, 3, 4??

Anyway, I’m putting the rankings down in public so I can debug this thing. But if APRIBOT has any anti-consensus picks that hit the big time, believe me you’ll never hear the end of it, haha.

(And yes, APRIBOT thinks the winner of the Tourney should be Chaz Lanier.)

1 Cooper Flagg
2 Collin Murray-Boyles
3 Nique Clifford
4 Jase Richardson
5 V.J. Edgecombe
6 Kon Knueppel
7 Khaman Maluach
8 Asa Newell
9 Dylan Harper
10 Danny Wolf
11 Walter Clayton Jr.
12 Derik Queen
13 Carter Bryant
14 Rasheer Fleming
15 Thomas Sorber
16 Adou Thiero
17 Ryan Kalkbrenner
18 Tre Johnson
19 Maxime Raynaud
20 Kasparas Jakucionis
21 Chaz Lanier
22 Kam Jones
23 Tyrese Proctor
24 Will Riley
25 Yanic Konan Niederhauser
26 Drake Powell
27 John Tonje
28 Johni Broome
29 Koby Brea
30 Sion James
31 Jeremiah Fears
32 Hunter Sallis
33 Alijah Martin
34 Egor Demin
35 Kobe Sanders
36 Vladislav Goldin
37 Javon Small
38 Micah Peavy
39 Ryan Nembhard
40 Jamir Watkins
41 Eric Dixon
42 Ace Bailey
43 Brice Williams
44 Liam McNeeley
45 RJ Luis Jr.
46 Viktor Lakhin
47 Mark Sears
48 Jahmai Mashack
49 Amari Williams
50 Chucky Hepburn
51 Chase Hunter
52 Max Shulga
53 Brooks Barnhizer
54 Tamar Bates
55 Payton Sandfort
56 Jalon Moore
57 Caleb Love
58 Grant Nelson
59 Igor Milicic Jr.
60 Clifford Omoruyi
61 Jaxson Robinson
62 Dylan Cardwell
63 Will Richard
64 Kobe Johnson
65 Cameron Matthews
66 Caleb Grill
67 Keshon Gilbert
68 Curtis Jones
69 Dawson Garcia
70 Jonathan Pierre
71 Jacksen Moni
72 Kadary Richmond
73 Lamont Butler
74 Sean Pedulla
75 John Poulakidas
76 Chance McMillian
77 Jahmyl Telfort
78 Norchad Omier
79 Gabe Madsen
80 Miles Kelly
81 Jamiya Neal
82 Zeke Mayo
83 RJ Davis
84 Arthur Kaluma
85 Matthew Cleveland
86 Matthew Murrell
87 Johnell Davis
88 LJ Cryer
89 Andrew Carr
90 Patrick McCaffery