Took the mock draft comparison Eric posted below and created an average consensus list. Basically, averaged placement from each outlet (1-30), using 31 if an outlet left a player off their top 30 list:
In a major bout of either groupthink or an idea whose time has come, four new mock drafts came out today which have Jake LaRavia going to GSW: Tankathon, SB Nation, B/R, ESPN.
And for those who know something about basketball, when “bad mechanics” is mentioned for a college player, is that something that ever changes or can be fixed?
Jun 16, 2022·edited Jun 16, 2022Liked by Eric Apricot
This is a tough one cause I really hate Braun's short little arms... but I gotta go with him here. I'm tempted to say that it's almost due to process of elimination, but he's actually a pretty exciting player when you give him a chance. I love the energy he plays with, and I actually love that he compared himself to Dillon Brooks (even though I still have some latent hatred I'm trying to get over). I think having high energy spirited players is important, and something we'll be a little lacking in in the post Draymond era. He's put up very solid numbers all three years in college, he can shoot, pass, get to the basket, he's an absolutely elite leaper with a 40 inch vert and 33 inch standing vert, and he plays dogged hard nosed defense, stays in front of his man, doesn't bite on fakes, and uses his springiness to block and contest shots. Oh and he can pass a little bit. I don't love him, but out of this group he's my clear favorite.
Re: process of elimination, Wesley and McGowens just didn't perform well in their freshman years, I'm not saying they're gonna be bad, just that I have no good reason to think that they won't. On video Wesley looks like he's got a pretty good handle, and McGowen has some nice finishes, and of course all the shots go in in the highlights, but then they end up with a 30% 3pt %... I just don't see anything that makes me thing they have so much more potential than the guys who actually played well (many of whom are still likely to be bad).
Koloko just seems like too much of a traditional center to spend a first round pick on, I don't see him guarding effectively on the perimeter, he's pretty old at 22 and still very raw. Seems like a risky pick without a ton of upside.
I wish 538 did draft prospect success projections. We could just pick whoever they projected for 3% likelihood of success, then sit back and enjoy watching them represent us in multiple all star games.
In today's media session, Jason Tatum held a basketball while being interviewed on the podium. I thought that was strange until I saw GP2 and Draymond on either side of the podium guarding him.
OT: I see Andrew, Dray and Klay getting smaller contracts in their next contract. Jordan and Looney will get bigger ones… I can easily see only a $5M/year bump for that quintet. I really don’t think it will get thaaaat much more expensive to keep this core together for the next 4 years…
I didn't realize that Dray's and Klay's contracts both run out in 2023-2024.
I think there's a pretty good chance Draymond leaves. Back problems at age 32 does not bode well for his productivity at age 35-36. I can't see the Warriors offering him what he probably feels he deserves.
And, by then, Kuminga should be starting at power forward (assuming Wiggs stays, he's the small forward).
Klay is harder to predict. If he can keep shooting well, he might get a $30 mil/yr contract.
At age 35? Not even close, imo. He’ll be lucky if he gets a full taxpayer MLE. Look at what guys like Andre, David West, and PJ Tucker got in their late careers.
I doubt the Warriors offer him more than the TPMLE when his contract expires. Of course, his last year is a player option, so there’s always a chance he tears it up and agrees to a ~3-year extension that gives him security and the team immediate-term financial relief.
Since the option year is $27 mil, any extension is probably around what ... $13-15 mil a year for three years, for it to make sense for Draymond?
Even if he just opts into his player option, you can be pretty sure someone is going to give him a couple of TPMLE one-year offers after that, barring an injury before his contract runs out.
Yeah… on open market, Dray is getting maybe $20M, Klay could be $30M if he’s able to keep on this recovery track. Bump those a little for the Warriors history bonus from Lacob, tho.
Looking over top NBA salaries, the most relevant salary is probably Al Horford signing a decreasing 4 year contract at age 33, starting at 28/yr, or Chris Paul at 30/yr. all other more expensive contracts than were for younger players or max salary types.
Arguably there are worse players getting paid more (eg Westbrook), but the going rate for a reliable aging veteran on a team with championship aspirations looks to be maybe 30/yr. I also have a hard time seeing anyone other than the Suns wanting to pay Chris Paul 30/yr, so I think that salary was quite generous, and it’d be hard to find someone who will pay much more.
Interesting! Taking the salary from the last year of each contract we’re looking at 43 + 33.5 + 27.5 + 5 + 6 = 115million. If we add 10 to that we’re probably talking about a 25 million/yr salary for each player. Maybe Wiggs gets 30 while Looney gets 20?
I guess that’s reasonable! There’s going to be near term pain over the next year or so while Looney gets a bump before Klay salary comes down…
Hope we quickly lock in Poole to 25:yr while it’s apparent his defenses is still a big weak point. And hope that other teams aren’t so crazy that they will bid 30/yr for Klay and Draymond.
Still, we may need Klay and Draymond to take even bigger discounts since if all goes well we will want to give Kuminga and Wiseman raises.
Edit: given good comments below, maybe we’re looking at Looney: 10, Poole: 25, Wiggs Draymond and Klay 30 each. Risks: Poole asks for designated rookie contract of 30/yr, and/or some other teams decide to poach and build around what will be 29yr old Wiggins for 35+/yr.
Klay and Dray won’t be offering any discounts. They will take the biggest deals they can. But I don’t think either will be offered long mega deals that the Warriors can’t match. As good as they are, they are extremely effective as products of this system, are getting old, and have had multiple injuries. They’ll stay with the Dubs and my hope and that they can stay good enough long enough for the next generation to come along.
Oh boy... I'll try. It could be I'm remembering wrong but I think the gist of it was: he could've taken 85M and still had a chance at getting KD (and his max was 90+) but he settled for 82M at the time.
How much do you think they’ll command? I have a hard time seeing other teams wanting to pay 40million/year for 34+yr old Klay and Draymond. Just doesn’t seem smart for most teams to commit 25% of their salary cap to them at that age. I can see other teams offering at least 20/yr, maybe 25/yr.
I think this might be the best exit strategy for the Warriors, particularly if Kuminga develops as we hope he might.
Keep Draymond next year, push for a title, and then (assuming we don't have to add draft picks to sweeten the deal) flip him to Portland or some other team for his option year if you can. He can help try to get Lillard a title, and at minimum, help them establish a better culture.
Whatever PJ Tucker gets and find some other similar players to cross reference. Draymond should not be at the 30 mil annually mark at that age. Defense goes away first with age as they say. He’s literally a depreciating asset. Only way he gets paid handsomely is if Bob is being nostalgic, but Bob has to take consideration of our rookies when theyre up for extensions. Draymond will need to take a lower salary. For the rest Pay whatever Wiggins and Poole wants and Klay should be paid based on his performance next year, right now it’s too soon to decide on his value.
Zero chance Looney gets $20m/year from the Warriors. His ceiling will be the standard MLE which is $10.3m. However, Looney is more valuable to contending teams, re: teams in the tax already, so realistically he'll probably be around the Tax Payer MLE $6-7m.
Braun - for his energy and "get -er done" fight. My question to Christian: Are you willing to sit the bench while learning from the champs?
Group A - Christian Braun
Koloko, Group A
Koloko for me, nice improvement on his FTs is a good sign.
Group A - Christian Braun
Group B - EJ Liddel
Group C - Jalen Williams
Group D - Wendell Moore
Took the mock draft comparison Eric posted below and created an average consensus list. Basically, averaged placement from each outlet (1-30), using 31 if an outlet left a player off their top 30 list:
1: Jabari Smith, score: 1.25
2: Chet Holmgren, score: 1.875
3: Paolo Banchero, score: 2.875
4: Jaden Ivey, score: 4.25
5: Keegan Murray, score: 5.25
6: Dyson Daniels, score: 7
7: Shaedon Sharpe, score: 7.25
8: Bennedict Mathurin, score: 8.777777777777779
9: Jalen Duren, score: 9.5
10: Johnny Davis, score: 10.125
11: AJ Griffin, score: 10.625
12: Jeremy Sochan, score: 11.75
13: Ousmane Dieng, score: 13.75
14: Mark Williams, score: 13.75
15: Malaki Branham, score: 14.5
16: Ochai Agbaji, score: 17.125
17: Jalen Williams, score: 18
18: Tari Eason, score: 18.625
19: TyTy Washington, score: 19.5
20: EJ Liddell, score: 20
21: Blake Wesley, score: 22.25
22: Nikola Jovic, score: 23.75
23: MarJon Beauchamp, score: 24.25
24: Jaden Hardy, score: 24.75
25: Walker Kessler, score: 25.25
26: Dalen Terry, score: 25.875
27: Jake LaRavia, score: 27.25
28: Kennedy Chandler, score: 27.625
29: Patrick Baldwin, score: 28.125
30: Leonard Miller, score: 29.25
31: Bryce McGowens, score: 29.75
32: Max Christie, score: 29.75
33: Caleb Houstan, score: 30
34: Ismael Kamagate, score: 30.25
35: Wendell Moore, score: 30.5
36: Christian Koloko, score: 30.625
37: John Butler, score: 30.625
38: Kendall Brown, score: 30.75
39: Andrew Nembhard, score: 30.75
40: David Roddy, score: 30.875
41: Trevor Keels, score: 30.875
42: Ryan Rollins, score: 30.875
One nice thing about picking 28 is that most of our guys actually participated in the combine, so we get real measurements.
In a major bout of either groupthink or an idea whose time has come, four new mock drafts came out today which have Jake LaRavia going to GSW: Tankathon, SB Nation, B/R, ESPN.
https://hoopsdistillery.com/mockdraftcomp-june22/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/steph-curry-is-cutting-through-the-noise/
Braun
When’s the voting deadline Eric?
And for those who know something about basketball, when “bad mechanics” is mentioned for a college player, is that something that ever changes or can be fixed?
Ciao da Roma!
No strict one, but I’m aiming to post our Final Round one or two days before the draft.
This is a tough one cause I really hate Braun's short little arms... but I gotta go with him here. I'm tempted to say that it's almost due to process of elimination, but he's actually a pretty exciting player when you give him a chance. I love the energy he plays with, and I actually love that he compared himself to Dillon Brooks (even though I still have some latent hatred I'm trying to get over). I think having high energy spirited players is important, and something we'll be a little lacking in in the post Draymond era. He's put up very solid numbers all three years in college, he can shoot, pass, get to the basket, he's an absolutely elite leaper with a 40 inch vert and 33 inch standing vert, and he plays dogged hard nosed defense, stays in front of his man, doesn't bite on fakes, and uses his springiness to block and contest shots. Oh and he can pass a little bit. I don't love him, but out of this group he's my clear favorite.
Re: process of elimination, Wesley and McGowens just didn't perform well in their freshman years, I'm not saying they're gonna be bad, just that I have no good reason to think that they won't. On video Wesley looks like he's got a pretty good handle, and McGowen has some nice finishes, and of course all the shots go in in the highlights, but then they end up with a 30% 3pt %... I just don't see anything that makes me thing they have so much more potential than the guys who actually played well (many of whom are still likely to be bad).
Koloko just seems like too much of a traditional center to spend a first round pick on, I don't see him guarding effectively on the perimeter, he's pretty old at 22 and still very raw. Seems like a risky pick without a ton of upside.
If it’s not too late, I’ll throw a vote in for Wesley. He may be listed at 6’3 but that length and his style of play is much bigger. I like him a lot.
I wish 538 did draft prospect success projections. We could just pick whoever they projected for 3% likelihood of success, then sit back and enjoy watching them represent us in multiple all star games.
Chance of successful NBA career, per 538’s 2009 Draft Guide:
Hasheem Thabeet 98.7%
Jonny Flynn 85.4%
Steph Curry 3.8%
Ok...how long have you been holding on to that one?
I assumed it was parody
In today's media session, Jason Tatum held a basketball while being interviewed on the podium. I thought that was strange until I saw GP2 and Draymond on either side of the podium guarding him.
Update: The vote count in the comments is surprisingly tight
Wesley 10
Braun 9
Koloko 8
Planning to run Group B on Friday, win or lose Game 6…
OT: I see Andrew, Dray and Klay getting smaller contracts in their next contract. Jordan and Looney will get bigger ones… I can easily see only a $5M/year bump for that quintet. I really don’t think it will get thaaaat much more expensive to keep this core together for the next 4 years…
I didn't realize that Dray's and Klay's contracts both run out in 2023-2024.
I think there's a pretty good chance Draymond leaves. Back problems at age 32 does not bode well for his productivity at age 35-36. I can't see the Warriors offering him what he probably feels he deserves.
And, by then, Kuminga should be starting at power forward (assuming Wiggs stays, he's the small forward).
Klay is harder to predict. If he can keep shooting well, he might get a $30 mil/yr contract.
how much do you think other teams would pay Draymond? Would other teams give him the Chris Paul deal for 30/yr?
At age 35? Not even close, imo. He’ll be lucky if he gets a full taxpayer MLE. Look at what guys like Andre, David West, and PJ Tucker got in their late careers.
I doubt the Warriors offer him more than the TPMLE when his contract expires. Of course, his last year is a player option, so there’s always a chance he tears it up and agrees to a ~3-year extension that gives him security and the team immediate-term financial relief.
Since the option year is $27 mil, any extension is probably around what ... $13-15 mil a year for three years, for it to make sense for Draymond?
Even if he just opts into his player option, you can be pretty sure someone is going to give him a couple of TPMLE one-year offers after that, barring an injury before his contract runs out.
I doubt anybody is paying draymond 30 million a year and he cant even make layups on payton pritchard
Yeah… on open market, Dray is getting maybe $20M, Klay could be $30M if he’s able to keep on this recovery track. Bump those a little for the Warriors history bonus from Lacob, tho.
Looking over top NBA salaries, the most relevant salary is probably Al Horford signing a decreasing 4 year contract at age 33, starting at 28/yr, or Chris Paul at 30/yr. all other more expensive contracts than were for younger players or max salary types.
Arguably there are worse players getting paid more (eg Westbrook), but the going rate for a reliable aging veteran on a team with championship aspirations looks to be maybe 30/yr. I also have a hard time seeing anyone other than the Suns wanting to pay Chris Paul 30/yr, so I think that salary was quite generous, and it’d be hard to find someone who will pay much more.
Oh wow really? Lol that’s an interesting stipulation
Interesting! Taking the salary from the last year of each contract we’re looking at 43 + 33.5 + 27.5 + 5 + 6 = 115million. If we add 10 to that we’re probably talking about a 25 million/yr salary for each player. Maybe Wiggs gets 30 while Looney gets 20?
I guess that’s reasonable! There’s going to be near term pain over the next year or so while Looney gets a bump before Klay salary comes down…
Hope we quickly lock in Poole to 25:yr while it’s apparent his defenses is still a big weak point. And hope that other teams aren’t so crazy that they will bid 30/yr for Klay and Draymond.
Still, we may need Klay and Draymond to take even bigger discounts since if all goes well we will want to give Kuminga and Wiseman raises.
Edit: given good comments below, maybe we’re looking at Looney: 10, Poole: 25, Wiggs Draymond and Klay 30 each. Risks: Poole asks for designated rookie contract of 30/yr, and/or some other teams decide to poach and build around what will be 29yr old Wiggins for 35+/yr.
Klay and Dray won’t be offering any discounts. They will take the biggest deals they can. But I don’t think either will be offered long mega deals that the Warriors can’t match. As good as they are, they are extremely effective as products of this system, are getting old, and have had multiple injuries. They’ll stay with the Dubs and my hope and that they can stay good enough long enough for the next generation to come along.
What makes you say they wont take discounts?
Didn't Draymond take less than he might have in his last (current) contract ?
And he's said openly that he regrets it and should've taken as much as he could've gotten.
Link?
Oh boy... I'll try. It could be I'm remembering wrong but I think the gist of it was: he could've taken 85M and still had a chance at getting KD (and his max was 90+) but he settled for 82M at the time.
How much do you think they’ll command? I have a hard time seeing other teams wanting to pay 40million/year for 34+yr old Klay and Draymond. Just doesn’t seem smart for most teams to commit 25% of their salary cap to them at that age. I can see other teams offering at least 20/yr, maybe 25/yr.
So maybe they can get 30million/yr still?
I bet the Blazers would like to pay Draymond! Defensive guru.
I think this might be the best exit strategy for the Warriors, particularly if Kuminga develops as we hope he might.
Keep Draymond next year, push for a title, and then (assuming we don't have to add draft picks to sweeten the deal) flip him to Portland or some other team for his option year if you can. He can help try to get Lillard a title, and at minimum, help them establish a better culture.
Dray needs to never leave. I won’t stand for this result
Whatever PJ Tucker gets and find some other similar players to cross reference. Draymond should not be at the 30 mil annually mark at that age. Defense goes away first with age as they say. He’s literally a depreciating asset. Only way he gets paid handsomely is if Bob is being nostalgic, but Bob has to take consideration of our rookies when theyre up for extensions. Draymond will need to take a lower salary. For the rest Pay whatever Wiggins and Poole wants and Klay should be paid based on his performance next year, right now it’s too soon to decide on his value.
Zero chance Looney gets $20m/year from the Warriors. His ceiling will be the standard MLE which is $10.3m. However, Looney is more valuable to contending teams, re: teams in the tax already, so realistically he'll probably be around the Tax Payer MLE $6-7m.
Thanks for the clarification!