Listening to coach Steve Kerr’s answers on the subject, it was pretty clear that the reason Willie Cauley-Stein had such a death grip on the Golden State Warriors starting Center position is that he was the only player on the roster would could be considered a “legitimate big.”
Now, whether you agree with the philosophy or not, there’s clearly some wisdom in ensuring that you are fielding a balanced roster, right?
Wrong.
Like subbing in Anderson Varejao in the 2016 NBA Finals when Leandro Barbosa was causing havoc, Kerr has a history of getting stung when his desire to stay with a traditional solution has an opportunity cost of taking a more impactful player off the court.
Now finally, the team has made a trade that will force Kerr to do what he has been reluctant to do all season: embrace Nellie ball.
Time for a small ball revolution that would make Nellie proud
Without Cauley-Stein, Marquese Chriss becomes the “big man” on the roster. At just 6’9” though, this roster is going to be at an inherent disadvantage when it comes to facing the behemoths of the league - but it’s not as if Cauley-Stein was stemming much damage anyways.
• Jonas Valanciunas put up an eye-popping 31 points and 19 rebounds against them last week.
• Hassan Whiteside had 17 points, 21 rebounds and blocked just about everything in sight (six total) on Monday in Portland.
• Rudy Gobert dominated his way to 17 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks in the first half on Wednesday, before cruising in the second half of the blowout, minimizing what could’ve been a mega stat line.
Before we move on though, I want to point out some of the things that Cauley-Stein was adept at. You’ll notice a theme here (defense):
He's fantastic at steals, it's a low total (1.1 per game), but his steal rate is in the 96th percentile for Centers
He's our best shot blocker, per 36. With Chriss a very close second.
He also features heavily in most of our top five man units, sorted by defensive rating
The Warriors only have TWO 5 man units that have played more than 35 minutes and have a net positive impact. WCS is in both of them
So the Warriors lost one of their defensive anchors, but at the time of writing, Golden State’s defensive efficiency was only ranked 25th in the league - so it’s not like we’ve tossed out the defining characteristic of this team anyways. As twitter user Krishna Narsu showed us the other day, the Warriors already have an identified wing player who can serve as the primary defender on our oppositions #1 offensive player.
In other words, sure, we may struggle against bigs, but most teams don’t heavily feature a Center in their offense anyways.
So, what would a team without a true Center look like for these Warriors?
Well, for one, it should, theoretically, open up the offense - which is dead last in the NBA at time of writing: just 103.4 points per 100 possessions.
And even if it doesn’t, at least it will be fun to see!
First of all, I would strongly suggest bringing up Ky Bowman. Though he only has three days left on his two-way contract, the Warriors now have room to convert that to a full NBA deal.
As one Reddit user pointed out, D’Angelo Russell has the highest shooting percentage among players who take at least 9.5 threes per game:
Joining him, Glenn Robinson is shooting 39% from deep, which is the 69th percentile amongst all wing players (nice), as per Cleaning the Glass. And as we’ve pointed out previously, one of the players who will most directly benefit from the Cauley-Stein Trade, Omari Spellman is a 43% shooter from outside (though he tends to take significantly less attempts).
That’s an extremely tough to guard lineup. Mix in one other guy like Alec Burks, and you’ve got a squad that Don Nelson would be proud to run with.
The offense is struggling, the defense is struggling. There’s no good reason not to try something a little dramatic, especially given the personnel we have available.
Couldn't figure out how to suggest this to someone privately, so: One thread I'd like to see is a 'who do we get for a big center next year' to replace WCS. Big centers have been mauling the Warriors for about a month, because no one has been able to defend them down low. And Draymond hasn't seemed to up to stopping bigs as in past years.
I was thinking Mason Plumlee might be a good fit. ~30 years old, free agent in the summer, current contract is 14 million (which I think would fit into the Iguadola trade exception). While not particularly skilled either offensively or defensively, he can defend the rim, and he runs the floor hard, which I think would be very useful for next year's team.
Mason Plumlee has been very reliable as a backup in Denver, so I imagine we'd at least be competing with an offer from them. While he could be a good fit for us, I don't think he's really starter material and I wonder if we couldn't find a more important player for that price. Especially how Marquese has been stepping it up lately, maybe it's not as big a need as we thought.
Thing with blocks is that it can be misleading. Better measure is blocks which are deflections. as well shot affected at rim. I remember multiple instances where we block but ends up leading to a made 3 by opponent. In hindsight, in such a case, block was a bad thing. If we don't block enough to our advantage, it is a bad block. Given how bad we are protecting 3s, number of times this season I have thought that we would have better off not blocking at the rim.
And thats where players like Dray shine. They know where to send the ball while blocking. From my memory, I don't think WCS (or Chriss) are that impactful in that regards. Of course, I don't have the stats handy. So I might be wrong in value of rim protection/blocks by WCS and Chriss.
Chriss has been fantastic at finishing some fairly tricky lobs as of late.
GR3 shooting with Klay and Curry on the court? OH MY that could be nice to see.
I also thing Omari has been hesitating a bit on his 3 shot after his mini starting run ended. If he can just go ahead and pull the trigger I think he makes more.
I wonder if Spellman is being exposed. With wide open 3s he seems a knock down shooter. But teams seem to be starting to close out. We'll see if he can adjust to having to pull quicker or if that pushes him beyond the limit of his 3p effectiveness.
If the latter, Omari's value as a shooting big seems only valuable if we have a plethora of shooters and/or a significant paint threat. We don't really have much of either at this time.
But it means he could be much more effective when Steph and Klay return. Whether we can or want to hold on to him until then remains to be seen.
Basketball defensive stats are worth even less than football defensive stats. You can't easily isolate out what any one player is contributing. Thompson rates poorly because he doesn't block shots and he doesn't get many steals. What he does do is force somebody other than his man to take a shot, and when his guy does take a shot, Thompson is usually in his face *without fouling*. What you see all the time in the current version of the Warriors is an opposing player gets by their man and has a clear path to the rim, somebody drops back to help out, and just like you draw it up the ball gets kicked out to the now open shooter who buries the 3. Which player is the bad defender?
I understand taking the advanced stats w/ a grain of salt, but it's interesting that they do a good job of identifying elite defenders (Gobert/Thybulle/Draymond/Kawhi) and terrible defenders (Russell/Booker/Carmelo)... hard to say they're not doing _something_ right.
Thompson's on ball is great, which makes for a very satisfying eye test.
But he seems to not rotate well or coordinate his team defense well. And his rebounding is only average. Those aspects of his game aren't eye-candy but they are at least as important as on ball defense.
Steph's sample so small. WCS has been above average for a few years I think.
Lee rebounds well. Paschall rebounds reasonably for a 3, poorly for a 4, so he's kind of a tweener. That should have an impact on those their defensive value.
Draymond has been playing with some injuries.
I'm surprised about Russell though. He looks terrible to my eye.
yeah worth noting in all this: the team has been so overwhelmingly negative impact, that it's going to be pretty much a given that a lot of these individualized impact metrics won't look great for players, especially on our second and third units
I've grown to be a fan of GRIII. He has a perfect demeanor, he is athletic and his shot is reliable. He is everything I wished McKinney would become and more. I hope we can hold on to him for next year.
Deleted my previous comment wondering whether GRIII and Burks will be on the team after the trade deadline. (Didn't like that my email address was showing as my username. I changed it, but it continued to appear that way).
Other than that, I'd love to see this group go full Nellieball. Let the good times roll!
I would not be at all surprised to see both on the roster through the end of the season. While both are serviceable, neither is really all that far above a replacement level player.
Trading them doesn't do enough to get the team under the cap, and other teams are probably reluctant to part with any meaningful assets for players that are so marginal. My guess is that the team is hoping both come back next year.
I sense GSW will hold on to GR3 rather than Burks. GR3 is 3 yrs younger, shooting better with better shot selection, seems to need the ball less, is more solid defensively.
I've been pleasantly surprised with both. I could see them hanging on to Burks if they can't get what they want, as he seemed interested in staying, and I don't see his age as an issue. He is about the same age as Green and Thompson and along with the slightly older Curry, fits with the championship core. His game is not spectacular as a starter, but as a guy coming off the bench, he could be a real asset on a contending team.
Couldn't figure out how to suggest this to someone privately, so: One thread I'd like to see is a 'who do we get for a big center next year' to replace WCS. Big centers have been mauling the Warriors for about a month, because no one has been able to defend them down low. And Draymond hasn't seemed to up to stopping bigs as in past years.
I was thinking Mason Plumlee might be a good fit. ~30 years old, free agent in the summer, current contract is 14 million (which I think would fit into the Iguadola trade exception). While not particularly skilled either offensively or defensively, he can defend the rim, and he runs the floor hard, which I think would be very useful for next year's team.
Mason Plumlee has been very reliable as a backup in Denver, so I imagine we'd at least be competing with an offer from them. While he could be a good fit for us, I don't think he's really starter material and I wonder if we couldn't find a more important player for that price. Especially how Marquese has been stepping it up lately, maybe it's not as big a need as we thought.
Thing with blocks is that it can be misleading. Better measure is blocks which are deflections. as well shot affected at rim. I remember multiple instances where we block but ends up leading to a made 3 by opponent. In hindsight, in such a case, block was a bad thing. If we don't block enough to our advantage, it is a bad block. Given how bad we are protecting 3s, number of times this season I have thought that we would have better off not blocking at the rim.
And thats where players like Dray shine. They know where to send the ball while blocking. From my memory, I don't think WCS (or Chriss) are that impactful in that regards. Of course, I don't have the stats handy. So I might be wrong in value of rim protection/blocks by WCS and Chriss.
I like GR3. I like Chriss. I like small ball.
Chriss has been fantastic at finishing some fairly tricky lobs as of late.
GR3 shooting with Klay and Curry on the court? OH MY that could be nice to see.
I also thing Omari has been hesitating a bit on his 3 shot after his mini starting run ended. If he can just go ahead and pull the trigger I think he makes more.
I wonder if Spellman is being exposed. With wide open 3s he seems a knock down shooter. But teams seem to be starting to close out. We'll see if he can adjust to having to pull quicker or if that pushes him beyond the limit of his 3p effectiveness.
If the latter, Omari's value as a shooting big seems only valuable if we have a plethora of shooters and/or a significant paint threat. We don't really have much of either at this time.
But it means he could be much more effective when Steph and Klay return. Whether we can or want to hold on to him until then remains to be seen.
He is getting exposed a bit. I agree. He needs to work on that and hope the adjustment goes his way.
How do we square all this GRIII love w/ the advanced stats that think he's somewhere between bad (BPM) and terrible (538 raptor & ESPN RPM)?
He’s got material weaknesses, no question
All of those advanced stats also hate Klay, but the eye test says they're both better than the metrics give them credit for
Basketball defensive stats are worth even less than football defensive stats. You can't easily isolate out what any one player is contributing. Thompson rates poorly because he doesn't block shots and he doesn't get many steals. What he does do is force somebody other than his man to take a shot, and when his guy does take a shot, Thompson is usually in his face *without fouling*. What you see all the time in the current version of the Warriors is an opposing player gets by their man and has a clear path to the rim, somebody drops back to help out, and just like you draw it up the ball gets kicked out to the now open shooter who buries the 3. Which player is the bad defender?
Interestingly, 538's "draymond" system likes Klay's defense https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-better-way-to-evaluate-nba-defense/
I understand taking the advanced stats w/ a grain of salt, but it's interesting that they do a good job of identifying elite defenders (Gobert/Thybulle/Draymond/Kawhi) and terrible defenders (Russell/Booker/Carmelo)... hard to say they're not doing _something_ right.
Thompson's on ball is great, which makes for a very satisfying eye test.
But he seems to not rotate well or coordinate his team defense well. And his rebounding is only average. Those aspects of his game aren't eye-candy but they are at least as important as on ball defense.
ESPN RPM is interesting. Their ranking of Dubs are
Steph(!!!!) +1.45
DLO +0.61
WCS(!!!) +0.59
D Lee +0.26
Ky -0.12
SMILEY -0.41
Dray -1.09
Chriss -1.24
Poole -1.26
Omari -1.44
Burks -2.03
looney -2.07
GR3 -2.40
Evans -2.74
Paschall -2.89
Steph's sample so small. WCS has been above average for a few years I think.
Lee rebounds well. Paschall rebounds reasonably for a 3, poorly for a 4, so he's kind of a tweener. That should have an impact on those their defensive value.
Draymond has been playing with some injuries.
I'm surprised about Russell though. He looks terrible to my eye.
These are their total RPM values, offense + defense. They hate Russel's D, have him at -2.1
yeah worth noting in all this: the team has been so overwhelmingly negative impact, that it's going to be pretty much a given that a lot of these individualized impact metrics won't look great for players, especially on our second and third units
I've grown to be a fan of GRIII. He has a perfect demeanor, he is athletic and his shot is reliable. He is everything I wished McKinney would become and more. I hope we can hold on to him for next year.
He does seem to be a more fully-formed McKinney. Good point.
Deleted my previous comment wondering whether GRIII and Burks will be on the team after the trade deadline. (Didn't like that my email address was showing as my username. I changed it, but it continued to appear that way).
Other than that, I'd love to see this group go full Nellieball. Let the good times roll!
I would not be at all surprised to see both on the roster through the end of the season. While both are serviceable, neither is really all that far above a replacement level player.
Trading them doesn't do enough to get the team under the cap, and other teams are probably reluctant to part with any meaningful assets for players that are so marginal. My guess is that the team is hoping both come back next year.
Yay for GRIII love- I'm becoming a believer.
I sense GSW will hold on to GR3 rather than Burks. GR3 is 3 yrs younger, shooting better with better shot selection, seems to need the ball less, is more solid defensively.
Agreed
I've been pleasantly surprised with both. I could see them hanging on to Burks if they can't get what they want, as he seemed interested in staying, and I don't see his age as an issue. He is about the same age as Green and Thompson and along with the slightly older Curry, fits with the championship core. His game is not spectacular as a starter, but as a guy coming off the bench, he could be a real asset on a contending team.