Sure, but that’s not how regressing to the mean works.
Oh wait, you’re talking about 12 *more* heads? In that case, I totally agree, and that’s basically my point. For prediction purposes you’re much better off applying a standard home-road split to a team of the Warriors’ quality (whatever quality you think that is) — not a “this team sucks on the road more than other teams” split.
I'm just saying 12+ head flips out of 15 assuming a fair coin is highly unlikely to be by chance (can enter in 12, 13, 14, and 15 for the x and add up the percentages).
But I'd agree that the Warriors are not a 2-12 quality road team. I'm more just annoyed that their road record has put them in a big seeding hole rather than it being predictive of their best form.
Okay, I see your point now. The warriors probably aren't a true talent 12-2 at home and 2-12 on the road. By the end of the season those basically need to converge towards something (hopefully good!)
I didn’t wanna say anything for fear of jinxing us, but I felt going into the game that this game was weirdly huge, as single games in December go. One game under .500 still feels like “treading water.” Three games under with the NYC back-to-back followed by the Grizz would have felt much more like the ceiling was about to crash in.
WOOOO! post game is up: https://dubnationhq.com/p/post-game-party-thread-poole-erupts
Went Christmas shopping. How we do?!
Did you not hear the sound of Dub nation unclenching?
Reading the comments, sounds like we won lol
Klay with a much more reasonable 12 shot attempts (as opposed to the mid-20s number he's been putting up lately).
His gravity got us quite a bunch of points
Newsflash: being a “bad team on the road” is not an actual thing. Least of all to an NBA champ with road wins in 26 straight playoff series.
It’s not that weird for a coinflip to be heads 12 times out of 15.
I get your point, but 12 or more heads on 15 flips would only occur 2% of the time.
Sure, but that’s not how regressing to the mean works.
Oh wait, you’re talking about 12 *more* heads? In that case, I totally agree, and that’s basically my point. For prediction purposes you’re much better off applying a standard home-road split to a team of the Warriors’ quality (whatever quality you think that is) — not a “this team sucks on the road more than other teams” split.
I'm just saying 12+ head flips out of 15 assuming a fair coin is highly unlikely to be by chance (can enter in 12, 13, 14, and 15 for the x and add up the percentages).
https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/bin.html
But I'd agree that the Warriors are not a 2-12 quality road team. I'm more just annoyed that their road record has put them in a big seeding hole rather than it being predictive of their best form.
Yeah, it's a signal of something. Could simply be that the warriors weren't v good for a large proportion of those games.
It may well be a signal that they played bad in those games, but it has almost no predictive value, which is what I meant by “not an actual thing.”
Okay, I see your point now. The warriors probably aren't a true talent 12-2 at home and 2-12 on the road. By the end of the season those basically need to converge towards something (hopefully good!)
Most of those losses were winnable too
Not winnable by us at the time, obviously.
Lol guess not
Panic meter on hold - for how many more games?
I didn’t wanna say anything for fear of jinxing us, but I felt going into the game that this game was weirdly huge, as single games in December go. One game under .500 still feels like “treading water.” Three games under with the NYC back-to-back followed by the Grizz would have felt much more like the ceiling was about to crash in.
That was ice cream of meh. I don't know why Raptors are so lousy but they looked very G League.
Maybe if JP wore a Kuminga suit next time the ice cream would be more to your liking.
I think it would droop.
The suit or the ice cream?
(punch line ...)
Both.
I think you're right, but at least part of that is because our defense is looking sooo much better now.
No Anounby, no Achiuwa, no Trent Jr., and no OPJ.
Anounby and Achiuwa are their best defenders.
True but also no Steph, no Wiggs.
We won on the road. Take it and smile. Not meh when JP scores 43.
Big sigh of relief. I can’t believe we got a road win.
That was most excellente
.500 here we come!
I be happy with a split in NY
Klay and Dray both 17 points…
Yay! Ice cream of joy! (Gotta walk the dogs first though.)
Whoo hoo! My prediction that the Warriors will win tonight's game has come true!
Also nice to see another good game from JMG
A win! That was a lot of fun to watch….
Love me a functional watch!
Warriors non-garbage unit had 15 turnovers tonight. That's good against a team that is #1 in opponent turnovers per game.
Good grief PBJ