The Golden State Warriors might get Draymond Green back tonight, but will definitely be without the services of Andrew Wiggins for a bit longer. For a team with championship aspirations, it’s imperative that they figure out how to stay alive during this current Curry-less stretch. So much of the blueprint for this year’s roster is built around internal development, I find that it’s making these losses go down a little bit easier knowing that the Golden State youth movement and second timeline friends are still extracting valuable learning.
Still, it would be pretty timely if the Warriors could start putting it all together soon and extract skme wins.
Keep those fingers crossed, and heads up. After the Warriors put a scare into the Philadelphia 76ers, it’s feels like something is building in Golden State.
GAME DETAILS
WHO: Golden State Warriors (14-16) at Toronto Raptors (13-16)
WHEN: Sunday, December 18th, 2022 // 3pm PDT ← early!
WATCH: NBCSBA
Injury updates:
Harnessing the good
Let’s ignore the unpredictable future, and instead focus on the present. Namely, where to look for that extra lift that this team so sorely needs.
The first player to think about in this regard is Jordan Poole. As close as there can be, Poole has molded himself into a Curry understudy. Equally content as the primary on-ball creator, or running off screens off the ball, Poole hasn’t really found his footing this season. Sure, there’s been the occasional flash. He dropped 36 on the San Antonio Spurs in a blowout win. He led the team in scoring while nailing seven threes in a win over the Chicago Bulls. Though the team lost, Poole has also upped his playmaking game; dishing out nine of them once this season against the New Orleans Pelicans. The top end of his game is still there.
What’s been off has been the reliability. After looking at the stats for a while, I have a few visual aids for those out there who are like me and have eyes that glaze over when presented with a paragraph full of numbers. First up, here is the annual change in scoring efficiency, as measured by True Shooting percentage (TS%).
That huge Sophomore leap is a big deal, but his drop down this season places him right around the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring efficiency (per Cleaning the Glass, he’s in the 57th percentile in points scored per attempt). Not a huge wrecking ball, but not ideal. Pulling his scoring efficiency back up will be a near term priority as the team searches for ways to replace what Curry usually brings - which is doubly important without Wiggins.
To dig into the cause of the drop, I’ve got two more graphics for your eyeballs. the first shows how accurate Poole is from various distances. Again, note the huge second year leap that put him on the map - negated a bit by drop off in the current season (so far, anyways).
It’s important to note that Poole’s scoring rate per possession is relatively static compared to last year; via basketball reference, he’s been scoring right around 30 points per 100 team possessions for the past three season.
I felt like there was an element missing here. How can his rate stats for scoring be about the same, but his scoring efficiency dip? To illustrate the changes behind this, we’ve got one more graphic; here’s the overall shot location frequency (in other words, how often does Poole shoot from certain distances):
As you can see, the big change in the current season is the decrease in three-point attempt rate. Additionally, many of those extra two-pointers that he’s been taking are the dreaded “long twos” just inside the arc. But defenses have been giving up mid-range looks, so it's also a matter of taking what the defense gives you.
It’s not the same, because the roles and responsibilities are so different, but while pointing out that Poole needs to go back to his old self; his teammate, Andrew Wiggins is doing perfectly fine as-is. Here’s a packed graphic from Synergy showing a combination of the two elements in my charts above. Wiggins has modified his shot selection, and has found a new efficiency while doing so.
I put this here not to draw the comparison, but rather to highlight how big of a swing these shooting numbers can have under different circumstances. For Poole (and Wiggins), I’d argue that the variation in shooting splits has just as much to do with what they’ve been asked to do within the context of their surrounding teammates. It’s also worth noting that Poole has “scored 20 or more points in 7 of his last 8 games since the start of December - shooting 45% overall, 36.5% on threes and 89.5% on free throws. Basically his splits from last season” according to Dalton Johnson of NBCSBA.
I miss Wiggins. I hope he comes back soon (still no official word on that yet).
Block the bad - what needs to change the most
Klay Thompson is my favorite Warrior. Maybe it’s his super chill demeanor, the skateboarding background, or the ability to get blisteringly hot at any time. Whatever the root of my love for him, it's getting close to time for an intervention. Thompson has earned a ton of wiggle room, but to be hitting career lows in so many important shooting categories while still hoisting shots at his same prolific rate has been one of the main killers this season.
As Draymond Green famously screamed, the players are people, not robots. You can’t necessarily dictate the precise choices that a player is constantly making on the basketball court. But then again, there’s got to be some sort of middle ground here.
As a partial explanation, it should be repeated once again that Thompson basically took the entire offseason off, and then treated the opening portion of the regular season as an extended training camp.
The other change that I’d like to see is more Wiseman. In his return to the Warriors, he didn’t look great all the time, but there were a few moments. Even Steve Kerr agreed that Wiseman showed improvement. He’ll stay with the team for now, and he can keep harnessing the good parts of his game and blocking the bad, he should be able to start chipping in more and more.
Prediction
Kevon Looney begins his campaign for most improved player. Another double-double for one of the team stalwarts! But most importantly, I’m feeling a rare road win coming our way. I’ve been wrong once or twice, but maybe today is my lucky day!
But look, win or lose, the important thing here and now is that the rest of the roster improves. I’m not sure what Curry will come back into, but the less deep of a hole this roster can dig ahead of his return, the better. It’s ok to want the team to be better; as long as you can keep rooting for success. This is a really weird, really messy season.
WOOOO! post game is up: https://dubnationhq.com/p/post-game-party-thread-poole-erupts
Went Christmas shopping. How we do?!