I am obviously a huge Klay fan. It's sad seeing him this was but I reckon he is just going through an adjustment period. Really hoping he turns around and accept his new role with the Dubs.
Also interesting: the trade value podcast serves as a kind of Simmons 2021 redraft if you strip out all the other players. He's got them in this order, I think:
JK is also over a year younger, which is typically a big deal in the expected development of guys this young.
These geniuses apparently put a lot of stock in Wagner’s extra 1.9 assists, and none in JK putting up an extra **9.2 points per 100 possessions** on the same volume?
Defense and consistency. And being the best or second best player on a team that currently has a better record than GSW and doesn't have a Steph. Having Franz over JK is pretty reasonable still. Having Jalen Johnson or Cade is a tougher sell.
I'm guessing it has more to do with Wagner being consistently pretty good so far compared to JK's sudden rise. That said, it's a little crazy that people are still so high on Cunningham and Mobley. Neither of them seems to be the kind of star that people expected.
While listening to the Simmons trade value podcast I had a weird thought. It came to me as Simmons was advocating for San Antonio to make a play for Trae Young and I tried to figure out whose playoff or play-in spot they would get in the even more crowded west. So here's the idea: what if you could trade conferences with another team as part of a bigger trade package? I know that it wouldn't work logistically - too much travel - but how funny would it be if the Warriors could ask some sad bottom feeder in the East to switch conferences as part of a deal?
There are 4 teams bunched closely at the top of the West, and it would take a catastrophic injury for one of them to fall out of the playoffs. Out of following 8 teams, 2 will not even make the play-in, and another two will be eliminated in the play-in round:
Kings
Lakers
Suns
Dallas
NOP
Utah
Rockets
Warriors
I think Kings and Lakers are locks to reach the first round, the latter due to refs / league pressure at least, the former just due to actually being good. I can see the Warriors jumping above Jazz, Rockets, and Pels with a good push.
So between the Suns and Dallas, which team do the Warriors bump out of the playoffs?
We're 0-3 against the Suns so far, with 1 game remaining.
We're 0-1 against Dallas, with 3 games remaining. We're 2 games behind Dallas in the loss column.
I read an article about how the Mavs and Bucks both might want Wiggins, so I used the trade machine to make a trade. It took me about four tries to even make something that the rules allow, so I have no idea if it's any good. Basically:
Dallas gets: Wiggins
Milwaukee gets: Grant Williams
Warriors get: Holmes and Portis
The trade machine also informs me that this projects to make Milwaukee a little worse, Dallas very slightly better, and the Warriors a lot (12 wins) worse. Perhaps the trade machine has not watched many games from Andrew Wiggins this season. Who says no first?
Portis is ok, but how does he fit in our bigs rotation?… Holmes would get approximately negative 12 minutes/game (especially if we’re adding Portis too)… this trade absolutely leads to 12 fewer wins for the Dubs
Given my previously stated belief that the Dubs should hang on to Wiggins, I generally agree. But I'm not totally sure that we're ever getting consistently good Wiggs back. I also have no idea if Portis is any good defensively, so I don't really have a good sense if he's worth getting. If he's a two way guy, maybe we have two stretch bigs.
Wolves blow a 20+ point lead. They had a 98% estimated win probability at half time. Man, that must be really tough as a fan to watch your team throw away a win like that.
Really good listen. He discusses pretty much everything we’ve been talking about. Klay’s adjustment to a new reality in depth, Kuminga’s development and funny stuff about the Draymond challenge.
Duby time: https://dubnationhq.com/p/delusional-optimism-is-an-important
I am obviously a huge Klay fan. It's sad seeing him this was but I reckon he is just going through an adjustment period. Really hoping he turns around and accept his new role with the Dubs.
The #1 seed in the West now belongs to … the LA Clippers. And OKC Thunder. And Minnesota Timberwolves. And Denver Nuggets.
Also interesting: the trade value podcast serves as a kind of Simmons 2021 redraft if you strip out all the other players. He's got them in this order, I think:
1. Sengun
2. Wagner
3. Cunningham (huh?)
4. Mobley
5. Jalen Johnson
6. Scottie Barnes
7. Kuminga
(Per 36)
Kuminga
22.2 pts on .611 TS
6.7 reb / 2.4 ast / 2.3 tov
1.0 stl / 0.6 blk
+3.1 on court / +5.3 net on-off
====
Wagner
22.3 pts on .565 TS
6.2 reb / 4.3 ast / 2.2 tov
1.2 stl / 0.4 blk
+2.1 on court / +4.2 net on-off
JK is also over a year younger, which is typically a big deal in the expected development of guys this young.
These geniuses apparently put a lot of stock in Wagner’s extra 1.9 assists, and none in JK putting up an extra **9.2 points per 100 possessions** on the same volume?
Defense and consistency. And being the best or second best player on a team that currently has a better record than GSW and doesn't have a Steph. Having Franz over JK is pretty reasonable still. Having Jalen Johnson or Cade is a tougher sell.
I'm guessing it has more to do with Wagner being consistently pretty good so far compared to JK's sudden rise. That said, it's a little crazy that people are still so high on Cunningham and Mobley. Neither of them seems to be the kind of star that people expected.
Give me kuminga over all of em
Give me another 2 months of JK keeping up his current pace, and I'm with you.
While listening to the Simmons trade value podcast I had a weird thought. It came to me as Simmons was advocating for San Antonio to make a play for Trae Young and I tried to figure out whose playoff or play-in spot they would get in the even more crowded west. So here's the idea: what if you could trade conferences with another team as part of a bigger trade package? I know that it wouldn't work logistically - too much travel - but how funny would it be if the Warriors could ask some sad bottom feeder in the East to switch conferences as part of a deal?
There are 4 teams bunched closely at the top of the West, and it would take a catastrophic injury for one of them to fall out of the playoffs. Out of following 8 teams, 2 will not even make the play-in, and another two will be eliminated in the play-in round:
Kings
Lakers
Suns
Dallas
NOP
Utah
Rockets
Warriors
I think Kings and Lakers are locks to reach the first round, the latter due to refs / league pressure at least, the former just due to actually being good. I can see the Warriors jumping above Jazz, Rockets, and Pels with a good push.
So between the Suns and Dallas, which team do the Warriors bump out of the playoffs?
We're 0-3 against the Suns so far, with 1 game remaining.
We're 0-1 against Dallas, with 3 games remaining. We're 2 games behind Dallas in the loss column.
It's a slooooowwww trade deadline when "The Bucks and Mavs are interested in Andrew Wiggins" is the lead story.
Would a jk, Portis, dray lineup work better than the wiggs, jk, dray front court?
Bucks without Lillard are having trouble scoring tonight.
Can't score without him, can't defend with him.
I’m already excited for the JK vs KD matchup, tbh… JK is gonna put him in the basket a few times…
Jazz beat the Thunder 124-117. Both of the Wolves and the Thunder (the top two teams in the West) have lost tonight.
45-23 bench points; Jazz-Thunder
I read an article about how the Mavs and Bucks both might want Wiggins, so I used the trade machine to make a trade. It took me about four tries to even make something that the rules allow, so I have no idea if it's any good. Basically:
Dallas gets: Wiggins
Milwaukee gets: Grant Williams
Warriors get: Holmes and Portis
The trade machine also informs me that this projects to make Milwaukee a little worse, Dallas very slightly better, and the Warriors a lot (12 wins) worse. Perhaps the trade machine has not watched many games from Andrew Wiggins this season. Who says no first?
Portis is ok, but how does he fit in our bigs rotation?… Holmes would get approximately negative 12 minutes/game (especially if we’re adding Portis too)… this trade absolutely leads to 12 fewer wins for the Dubs
Given my previously stated belief that the Dubs should hang on to Wiggins, I generally agree. But I'm not totally sure that we're ever getting consistently good Wiggs back. I also have no idea if Portis is any good defensively, so I don't really have a good sense if he's worth getting. If he's a two way guy, maybe we have two stretch bigs.
I'll take the bait - No
It's not bait! I'm just trying to make the trade machine do things!
with you 100%
Are the Thunder a serious team? They cannot rebound…
4th best player in the NBA, a top 5 offense, #6 defense (even despite the rebounding woes), yeah, I think they're a serious team.
They can't rebound but after this loss they're still top 4 in the West. Their record says they're a lot more serious than we are.
They are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league.
28 in off. rebounding % (21.1%)
29 in def. rebounding % (72.5%)
29 in total rebounding % (47.5%)
Is that why they’re losing right now to Utah? They’ve been out rebounded tonight.
Bulls beat the Wolves in OT 129-123.
Wolves blow a 20+ point lead. They had a 98% estimated win probability at half time. Man, that must be really tough as a fan to watch your team throw away a win like that.
Yea, happily I have never experienced that more than 37 times in half a season.
Here’s Kerr on 95.7 https://youtu.be/OtWYoyqflhw?si=SUzvILpIN2Fpcb5-
Really good listen. He discusses pretty much everything we’ve been talking about. Klay’s adjustment to a new reality in depth, Kuminga’s development and funny stuff about the Draymond challenge.
Jazz is giving the Thunder a run for their money.
Jazz is starting Dunn and Fontecchio, no 2nd star for Lauri still somehow winning all these games.
I wonder if they are starting Dunn and Fontecchio for their defense?