“I love Steph, man. I mean, the guy has completely revolutionized the game. Coming into the league as a young man in 2011 — and only seeing glimpses of what he was capable of because he wasn’t as healthy in those early 2000s, so we only see glimpses. But when he caught fire, man, everybody was on notice. And me, as a point guard or just as a lead guard on my team growing up in Cleveland at the time, he was the guy that really set that standard.
“That catch-and-shooting off the dribble, being able to break down his defenders, being able to take three guys with him everywhere he goes. You wouldn’t be a true student of the game if you’re not watching somebody like that and trying to not only keep up but challenge his positions.
“I think that’s where our mutual respect has really grown, is going against each other has been great, but studying each other has been even more of a special bond. I see moves he does, and I know he sees moves that I do; we’re just leading this next generation that’s coming up behind us.
“You don’t have to be the athletic guy that’s finishing over the top of the rim — you have young guys doing that, they are the 2.0, they’re able to shoot deep 3s and sky over the rim. But when you look at me and Steph, I just feel like we’re able to do things out there that keeps the normal person walking down the street, gives them hope that basketball can be for them as well.
“He’s just able to do so many special things. I can go on and on about Steph, but I love that guy. Going against him and having our battles where he’s had 50 on me and I’ve had 30-something on him — win, loss, all the comparisons, all the Instagram pages, all the Twitter feeds, everything that goes on into the media of just comparing us, I’ve dealt with it. And it’s just like, put me in a position to look at him as more of a brother in arms, but when we’re out there on the floor, we compete at a high level.”
Had to skim the G-League game to get my mind off that NFC championship (didn't work, come on Tartt catch the ball). This was a really strong game from Moody. Live dribble dimes, off pindown threes, strong offensive rebounds, forced jump balls, multiple stutter rip moves (one for a dunk), off the dribble midrange pull up, and more. Had some trouble finishing in traffic inside as usual, shot and dribble moves still need to be sped up (think of how fast Klay would get some of these movement threes off).
I think it's pretty clear Moody has graduated G-League. He is more of an assistant teacher there at this point. But I'm glad the Warriors keep sending him there because he needs the minutes. I really hope Dubs find a way to get him some run leading into the Playoffs. If we lose a guard or wing or two to injury, it would be nice to have him a little more acclimated to the NBA speed and his own teammates. I think his skills will translate well, but not until he starts logging some consistent minutes against better competition. Win games first, yes, but otherwise, I'm trying to get him as many minutes as I can. Imagine a defensive set unit of Klay, Moody, Wiggs, Kuminga & Green. OMG!
A rough team loss… Jimmy did Jimmy things, Tartt dropped the ball, and Shanahan outsmarted himself trying to get that first down… and D couldn’t get off the field on 3rd down seemingly all game.
Very rough, an overall successful season but in the NFL those windows can shut extremely quickly if you don't have a top QB. I'll miss Jimmy for non-football reasons but it's time to hand the keys over to Lance and see what he has.
To relate this to Moody, speaking of freakish length, Brandon Aiyuk is 6'0 with a 6'9 wingspan. I feel like he could break out if he gets a QB who can deliver the deep ball (hopefully that's Lance), he hasn't really gotten the opportunity to show everything he can do playing with Jimmy imo.
Other than CP3, I don’t hate the Suns. They have some quality players and play good ball. Still, it would be real nice if they went on, say, a 6 or 7 game losing streak. Not going to happen but a fella can dream.
They barely beat a skeleton crew version of the Spurs on their home floor, with their full squad except for Ayton. Trailed by 12 early in the 4th, and by 2 with two minutes left.
We lost to that Pacers skeleton crew … which, yeah, was similarly unimpressive. Do I need to mention every other unimpressive game ever played by a good team? Just putting the Suns’ win over the Spurs (without Murray, White, and Poeltl, probably their three best players) in context.
Based on adjusted net rating, the Suns to date profile more as just a very good team than as a juggernaut. And while you can only play the teams on the schedule: their current 10-game streak has been bolstered by an impressive run of games against teams that are either bad, hurt, on segababas, or all of the above.
For sure I think we're better. Just that they're respectable enough where the probabilities make me nervous. If the Warriors have a 60-40 edge to win each game, they win a 7 game series with 71% chance. If they have a 65-35 edge they win the series with 80% chance, and a 70-30 edge, they win a 7 game series with 87% chance. (and a 55-45 edge means we win the series with 61% chance)
If our per game edge is only somewhere 60~65, that means we win with ~75% chance, or lose with 25% chance, aka if someone flips two coins and gets two heads, and that is definitely too close for my comfort. Heck, even a 87% title chance (with per-game edge of 70-30) makes me nervous. That's about the same as saying the Warriors will lose if someone flips a coin three times and gets three heads (three tails not counting).
Maybe I'm too cautious. How much of a per-game edge do people think we have over the Suns?
(And since I love numbers: the way I think about it is a 70-30 edge over the suns means a season record of 57-58 wins IF the entire league played at the level of the Suns. Also, I know that's not entirely translatable because you can game-plan in a 7-game series, so these estimates here are just starting points for estimating likelihoods).
No real disagreement with those guesstimates. I hope I didn’t imply the Warriors were shoo-ins in a series v the Suns, or anywhere close. I feel like there have been a few replies here to a claim I never made.
I mean, if we’re gonna throw out guesstimated odds: let’s start by acknowledging that the chances of the Suns and Warriors even meeting in the playoffs may be worse than 50-50. For all we know the WCF will be Memphis v Denver.
Haha yes that’s a good point, that we might not even see them.
And no worries, I don’t think you were saying that we are shoo-ins vs the Suns — rather I think you were reasonably telling people not to hand-wring too much about them.
I just wanted to put some numbers out there in hopes that they might better anchor/make concrete future discussions here at DNHQ. I think when people hand wring there’s really two things at stake: 1) what are the odds, and 2) is one comfortable with those odds. It might be that people here agree on the odds (1) but naturally have different risk tolerances (2), and that’s fine! I am curious to have a discussion with the wider DNHQ community about what they think about (1) and how they come to those conclusions.
I hate the Suns, too, but I can't say they are a fluke or lucky. They've had limited injury, which is often the crucial ingredient for a championship, but they're also very good. Are they better than the Warriors in a 7 game series with both teams healthy? That's why sports are played, to find out. I would bet on the Warriors, but not all my savings, that's for sure.
yea, the fact that they're outperforming their +/- this consistently probably says something about their discipline and execution, even if they can't put up more convincing wins. That just means our margin for error against them is that much smaller.
Their W-L record is significantly better than their net rating (adjusted for strength of schedule) would indicate. That’s typically what we mean when we say a team has been “lucky.”
I think they're a force to be reckoned with. Their Finals experience last year will certainly help them come playoff time. Still think the Dubs, if at full strength (with/without Wiseman) take them down in 6.
I did not think that Denver would beat the Bucks by 36 in Milwaukee, with the Bucks having all there starters (well, Brook Lopez out all season). It is very fortunate for my family's financial wellbeing that I am not a betting man. If I took all my certain predictions to Vegas I'd have to walk home.
Didn't watch the G-League game but it looks like Moody's best overall performance. 27 points on 20 shots (4 for 9 from three), 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover.
Maybe he was trash defensively or ballhogging or something but the box score looks great.
It's really hard to imagine him finding real minutes on Golden State. Poole broke through in the bigs when we were in need of backcourt help -- specifically a guy who can keep his dribble and create. Right now Moody is behind Steph Klay Poole Lee and GPII. That's a lot of offense and defense. It's hard to imagine him breaking through that logjam and offering something that they don't.
Fun fact, while the Warriors narrowly lead the nba in point differential, there is a HUGE differential between the scoring margins at home vs. away. At home, we have a massive 13.1+ while away we have a miniscule 0.9+ differential.
Makes me think that home court advantage is going to be far more important than I initially thought.
The only parts of the off-season we have seen on the court so far have been the A & A+ moves. The B potential comes in when we see how they choose to integrate Wiseman into the lineup. It’s pretty simple to see in lineup data that 4 guys can be amazing with almost any 5th guy but some singularly bad fits can destroy the effectiveness of even the best 4 man groups.
Unless the Warriors successfully integrate Wiseman without sabotaging the utility of others, or leave him shelved for the season, a B is very much still on the table for the off-season.
I think the idea TGAFG! was going for is that they should have planned for him not being a contributor at C, but that seems erroneous to me seeing as his return has been a moving target due to unforeseen complications.
In any event they did sort of plan for it by picking up Bjeliza who maybe hasn't been great but has played as well or better than you would expect a guy on the veteran minimum to play. Unless there was a center they could have picked up on a 2-way that was better in place of Chiozza or Witherspoon you can't really fault them.
I'd say it was a wash, Chriss certainly has more upside as he is still young but if Bjelica was hitting 3s at his career rate, and it was reasonable to assume he would, then the choice is defensible.
Career rate discounts his most recent season shooting 32% across two teams. Sure, smaller sample size, but more recent. Maybe this is the Bjeli the Dubs get. A 34% 3P% stretch 5 with so-so defense, but great court awareness and passing that comes with the occasional brain fart?
Kyrie schooled Kuminga with a forearm shiver which somehow got him to the line. He also gave Steph one in the last two minutes. Fortunately the refs did not let him get away with shoving Klay over at the end. Also, why was Looney guarding K on his last three pointer narrowing the lead?
Man, Wiggs is seriously turning into a dude. His last 2 of the night was over a double-team. And that putback dunk he had on Poole's missed 3? That aggressiveness is something Wiggs never had in years past. 4 of 8 from 3pt range, 10 of 18 overall. That efficiency is murderous. Along with his insane D on the best PG in the East. Wow.
Gotta say, for years LeBron dominated the league. Then we got the Splash Revolution. But look around. There are some damn good players in this league and A LOT of them. Continuity, depth & team chemistry/culture are going to be big players in the Chips won in the next decade. And thankfully, that's something we are good at.
These young athletic teams like the Rockets and Wolves seem to give the Warriors some trouble, hopefully they aren't playing from behind most of the game tomorrow like in the last meeting.
Man , just heard Kyrie’s full quote on Steph. Mad respect.
https://youtu.be/GE6hJELUlI0?t=420
“I love Steph, man. I mean, the guy has completely revolutionized the game. Coming into the league as a young man in 2011 — and only seeing glimpses of what he was capable of because he wasn’t as healthy in those early 2000s, so we only see glimpses. But when he caught fire, man, everybody was on notice. And me, as a point guard or just as a lead guard on my team growing up in Cleveland at the time, he was the guy that really set that standard.
“That catch-and-shooting off the dribble, being able to break down his defenders, being able to take three guys with him everywhere he goes. You wouldn’t be a true student of the game if you’re not watching somebody like that and trying to not only keep up but challenge his positions.
“I think that’s where our mutual respect has really grown, is going against each other has been great, but studying each other has been even more of a special bond. I see moves he does, and I know he sees moves that I do; we’re just leading this next generation that’s coming up behind us.
“You don’t have to be the athletic guy that’s finishing over the top of the rim — you have young guys doing that, they are the 2.0, they’re able to shoot deep 3s and sky over the rim. But when you look at me and Steph, I just feel like we’re able to do things out there that keeps the normal person walking down the street, gives them hope that basketball can be for them as well.
“He’s just able to do so many special things. I can go on and on about Steph, but I love that guy. Going against him and having our battles where he’s had 50 on me and I’ve had 30-something on him — win, loss, all the comparisons, all the Instagram pages, all the Twitter feeds, everything that goes on into the media of just comparing us, I’ve dealt with it. And it’s just like, put me in a position to look at him as more of a brother in arms, but when we’re out there on the floor, we compete at a high level.”
Wow
Had to skim the G-League game to get my mind off that NFC championship (didn't work, come on Tartt catch the ball). This was a really strong game from Moody. Live dribble dimes, off pindown threes, strong offensive rebounds, forced jump balls, multiple stutter rip moves (one for a dunk), off the dribble midrange pull up, and more. Had some trouble finishing in traffic inside as usual, shot and dribble moves still need to be sped up (think of how fast Klay would get some of these movement threes off).
Scoring highlights are here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIlFRptPmik
Here's a few of his assists (consecutive in the video):
https://youtu.be/R0AoIXaZw3M?t=176 (two plays in a row in this video)
https://youtu.be/R0AoIXaZw3M?t=293
I think it's pretty clear Moody has graduated G-League. He is more of an assistant teacher there at this point. But I'm glad the Warriors keep sending him there because he needs the minutes. I really hope Dubs find a way to get him some run leading into the Playoffs. If we lose a guard or wing or two to injury, it would be nice to have him a little more acclimated to the NBA speed and his own teammates. I think his skills will translate well, but not until he starts logging some consistent minutes against better competition. Win games first, yes, but otherwise, I'm trying to get him as many minutes as I can. Imagine a defensive set unit of Klay, Moody, Wiggs, Kuminga & Green. OMG!
A rough team loss… Jimmy did Jimmy things, Tartt dropped the ball, and Shanahan outsmarted himself trying to get that first down… and D couldn’t get off the field on 3rd down seemingly all game.
Very rough, an overall successful season but in the NFL those windows can shut extremely quickly if you don't have a top QB. I'll miss Jimmy for non-football reasons but it's time to hand the keys over to Lance and see what he has.
To relate this to Moody, speaking of freakish length, Brandon Aiyuk is 6'0 with a 6'9 wingspan. I feel like he could break out if he gets a QB who can deliver the deep ball (hopefully that's Lance), he hasn't really gotten the opportunity to show everything he can do playing with Jimmy imo.
10-game win streaks for the Suns. Seeing them win a bunch of games is annoying me.
Other than CP3, I don’t hate the Suns. They have some quality players and play good ball. Still, it would be real nice if they went on, say, a 6 or 7 game losing streak. Not going to happen but a fella can dream.
They barely beat a skeleton crew version of the Spurs on their home floor, with their full squad except for Ayton. Trailed by 12 early in the 4th, and by 2 with two minutes left.
Paper tigers.
to play devil's advocate we barely beat a skeleton crew version of the pacers... wait a minute...
We lost to that Pacers skeleton crew … which, yeah, was similarly unimpressive. Do I need to mention every other unimpressive game ever played by a good team? Just putting the Suns’ win over the Spurs (without Murray, White, and Poeltl, probably their three best players) in context.
Based on adjusted net rating, the Suns to date profile more as just a very good team than as a juggernaut. And while you can only play the teams on the schedule: their current 10-game streak has been bolstered by an impressive run of games against teams that are either bad, hurt, on segababas, or all of the above.
For sure I think we're better. Just that they're respectable enough where the probabilities make me nervous. If the Warriors have a 60-40 edge to win each game, they win a 7 game series with 71% chance. If they have a 65-35 edge they win the series with 80% chance, and a 70-30 edge, they win a 7 game series with 87% chance. (and a 55-45 edge means we win the series with 61% chance)
If our per game edge is only somewhere 60~65, that means we win with ~75% chance, or lose with 25% chance, aka if someone flips two coins and gets two heads, and that is definitely too close for my comfort. Heck, even a 87% title chance (with per-game edge of 70-30) makes me nervous. That's about the same as saying the Warriors will lose if someone flips a coin three times and gets three heads (three tails not counting).
Maybe I'm too cautious. How much of a per-game edge do people think we have over the Suns?
(And since I love numbers: the way I think about it is a 70-30 edge over the suns means a season record of 57-58 wins IF the entire league played at the level of the Suns. Also, I know that's not entirely translatable because you can game-plan in a 7-game series, so these estimates here are just starting points for estimating likelihoods).
No real disagreement with those guesstimates. I hope I didn’t imply the Warriors were shoo-ins in a series v the Suns, or anywhere close. I feel like there have been a few replies here to a claim I never made.
I mean, if we’re gonna throw out guesstimated odds: let’s start by acknowledging that the chances of the Suns and Warriors even meeting in the playoffs may be worse than 50-50. For all we know the WCF will be Memphis v Denver.
Haha yes that’s a good point, that we might not even see them.
And no worries, I don’t think you were saying that we are shoo-ins vs the Suns — rather I think you were reasonably telling people not to hand-wring too much about them.
I just wanted to put some numbers out there in hopes that they might better anchor/make concrete future discussions here at DNHQ. I think when people hand wring there’s really two things at stake: 1) what are the odds, and 2) is one comfortable with those odds. It might be that people here agree on the odds (1) but naturally have different risk tolerances (2), and that’s fine! I am curious to have a discussion with the wider DNHQ community about what they think about (1) and how they come to those conclusions.
I hate the Suns, too, but I can't say they are a fluke or lucky. They've had limited injury, which is often the crucial ingredient for a championship, but they're also very good. Are they better than the Warriors in a 7 game series with both teams healthy? That's why sports are played, to find out. I would bet on the Warriors, but not all my savings, that's for sure.
yea, the fact that they're outperforming their +/- this consistently probably says something about their discipline and execution, even if they can't put up more convincing wins. That just means our margin for error against them is that much smaller.
CP3 has played every game so far, if he ever sits they'll start losing imo
Their W-L record is significantly better than their net rating (adjusted for strength of schedule) would indicate. That’s typically what we mean when we say a team has been “lucky.”
They’re still a very good team, though.
#CP3 #soclutch #floorgeneral #westchamps #midrange
I don't have any recollection of the game you are referring to, pretty sure you must be misremembering.
I think they're a force to be reckoned with. Their Finals experience last year will certainly help them come playoff time. Still think the Dubs, if at full strength (with/without Wiseman) take them down in 6.
Nuggets beat Bucks
Magic beat Mavs
Pistons beat Cavs
T’Wolves beating Jazz
Spurs in a tight one against the Suns
A lot of upsets today…
Jimmy Garopolo is EXACTLY like Tom Brady in that...
... they should both retire.
OT: The Jimmy G Era is over!
You know it's bad when both coaches are coaching like they don't respect Jimmy's arm.
I did not think that Denver would beat the Bucks by 36 in Milwaukee, with the Bucks having all there starters (well, Brook Lopez out all season). It is very fortunate for my family's financial wellbeing that I am not a betting man. If I took all my certain predictions to Vegas I'd have to walk home.
Didn't watch the G-League game but it looks like Moody's best overall performance. 27 points on 20 shots (4 for 9 from three), 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover.
Maybe he was trash defensively or ballhogging or something but the box score looks great.
I wonder how many great G League games will it take before they will give him a Poole-like call up mid-season. Might never happen if there’s no need.
It's really hard to imagine him finding real minutes on Golden State. Poole broke through in the bigs when we were in need of backcourt help -- specifically a guy who can keep his dribble and create. Right now Moody is behind Steph Klay Poole Lee and GPII. That's a lot of offense and defense. It's hard to imagine him breaking through that logjam and offering something that they don't.
This season, yeah. But Andre is old; Klay is not young; and Otto, Juan, and DLee are not under contract for next season.
I don’t think anyone was pencilling Moody into the rotation this season.
Fun fact, while the Warriors narrowly lead the nba in point differential, there is a HUGE differential between the scoring margins at home vs. away. At home, we have a massive 13.1+ while away we have a miniscule 0.9+ differential.
Makes me think that home court advantage is going to be far more important than I initially thought.
The away is massively skewed toward the tough stretch with H&S protocols and Dray missing time too.
The only parts of the off-season we have seen on the court so far have been the A & A+ moves. The B potential comes in when we see how they choose to integrate Wiseman into the lineup. It’s pretty simple to see in lineup data that 4 guys can be amazing with almost any 5th guy but some singularly bad fits can destroy the effectiveness of even the best 4 man groups.
Unless the Warriors successfully integrate Wiseman without sabotaging the utility of others, or leave him shelved for the season, a B is very much still on the table for the off-season.
1) JW isn’t playing this year.
2) JW integration isn’t an off season move.
I think the idea TGAFG! was going for is that they should have planned for him not being a contributor at C, but that seems erroneous to me seeing as his return has been a moving target due to unforeseen complications.
In any event they did sort of plan for it by picking up Bjeliza who maybe hasn't been great but has played as well or better than you would expect a guy on the veteran minimum to play. Unless there was a center they could have picked up on a 2-way that was better in place of Chiozza or Witherspoon you can't really fault them.
Bzelica better than Chriss?
I'd say it was a wash, Chriss certainly has more upside as he is still young but if Bjelica was hitting 3s at his career rate, and it was reasonable to assume he would, then the choice is defensible.
Career rate discounts his most recent season shooting 32% across two teams. Sure, smaller sample size, but more recent. Maybe this is the Bjeli the Dubs get. A 34% 3P% stretch 5 with so-so defense, but great court awareness and passing that comes with the occasional brain fart?
Well, then there's Moody's grade. I would say "Incomplete."
Kyrie schooled Kuminga with a forearm shiver which somehow got him to the line. He also gave Steph one in the last two minutes. Fortunately the refs did not let him get away with shoving Klay over at the end. Also, why was Looney guarding K on his last three pointer narrowing the lead?
Man, Wiggs is seriously turning into a dude. His last 2 of the night was over a double-team. And that putback dunk he had on Poole's missed 3? That aggressiveness is something Wiggs never had in years past. 4 of 8 from 3pt range, 10 of 18 overall. That efficiency is murderous. Along with his insane D on the best PG in the East. Wow.
The baseline fadeaway was some Kobe/TMac throwback
Could be that he has a newfound confidence and swagger. Yay All-Star Wiggs!
All-Star Wiggs is a beast
Gotta say, for years LeBron dominated the league. Then we got the Splash Revolution. But look around. There are some damn good players in this league and A LOT of them. Continuity, depth & team chemistry/culture are going to be big players in the Chips won in the next decade. And thankfully, that's something we are good at.
100% agree
I love even the high pace and outside shooting in the League now
Spurs game will most likely be a loss. Spurs own the warriors.
That’s not a thing (or hasn’t been since Kerr became coach). The Spurs could certainly win, but the Warriors will be favored, barring injury.
*Warriors 20-14 v. the Spurs (incl. playoffs) since Kerr became head coach.
Including 3-1 versus the best (regular season) Spurs team ever.
Which was actually a Top 10 team *of all time*, statistically (by BB-Ref’s SRS, essentially net rating adjusted for strength of schedule):
https://www.basketball-reference.com/tools/share.fcgi?id=k3YK6
Fun fact: the ‘15-16 Spurs rated ever so slightly better than the ‘15-16 Warriors, despite our gaudy 73-9.
lol probably because we trashed the league so much such that the rest of the league was considered worse and hence an easier strength of schedule?
Nah. Another good shooting night for the Dubs and we will own them.
These young athletic teams like the Rockets and Wolves seem to give the Warriors some trouble, hopefully they aren't playing from behind most of the game tomorrow like in the last meeting.
Both Rubio and Ingles were guys who I thought could join the Warriors next season, but now probably not for either.
Ugh. That doesn’t sound good.
looking at the video I'd say probably a torn ACL, maybe an MCL tear, maybe both.
Oh no. Poor Joe. That’s a real blow to his career and the Jazz
Just watched and kinda wish I didn’t. Knees aren’t supposed to do that.
Absolutely disgraceful if you're a Rams fan. LA is a horrible sports town for any team not named Lakers or Dodgers.
Yep. Announcers just confirmed that for the end zone drive.