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Don't know if this was posted before, but a really good interview with Duncan Robinson (Heat) on a bunch of stuff including Steph, a JTA shoutout and an Andre mention: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83w-ECzoDkA. Worth a listen.

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Ended up listening to the whole thing (~26 min), it was really great! Recommended.

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It's interesting that the TWolves are incentivized to finish exactly 3rd from the bottom, because doing worse has zero draft upside or downside, while finishing better increases the likelihood of them losing their pick.

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They have same odds of losing the pick as any of the worst, second worst, or third worst

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Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Other teams in the bottom 3 still have some incentive to be 30th but the TWolves don't. Meanwhile if they finish above 28th, they start losing odds on keeping their pick.

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Kevin O'Connor (TheRinger) has the Warriors 9th in his latest power rankings: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/4/26/22403238/nba-power-rankings-clippers-nets-jazz. He's been pretty bullish on the Warriors all season.

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"9. Golden State Warriors | PR: 19 ↑

Stephen Curry, the self-creator.

Curry changed basketball with his 3-point shooting ability, but he’s always been much more than just a shooter. This season, he’s having one of the best seasons of his career attacking the basket.

A career-high 26 percent of Curry’s total shots are driving layups or floaters, according to Second Spectrum. He’s hitting 59 percent of those shots, which ranks 10th in the league of the 113 players to log at least 100 attempts. By comparison, Giannis Antetokounmpo ranks first at 67 percent (of course, many of his makes are dunks that are classified as “layups”).

Curry is on a tear in April, averaging 38.1 points and 47.2 percent from 3. But a large component of Curry’s greatness comes from what he does closer to the rim."

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Well either the news will break tomorrow that Steph will most likely retire as a Warrior with that contract extension or the county is letting CHASE host the playoffs games (if they make it) to almost full capacity.

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These seem like reasonable expectations for that big announcement

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It's that time of the year when nobody cares that victories are "unconvincing".

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Steph Curry with an uncharacteristically off night, missing THREE free throws!

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I’m honestly not sure I’d ever seen him miss a free throw that mattered until last night.

Fortunately, neither 4th quarter miss ended up mattering. :-)

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They mattered in that they took a couple years off my life.

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Added to the stressful random ending. Thankfully he made the last 3.

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Tomorrow's game is the last gasp chance at the 6 seed. A win gives the Dubs the tiebreaker against DAL. They would still have to run them down and that would probably take 8-5 from DAL vs 10-1 for GSW. If they lose, they're almost certainly in the play-in.

The 6 seed was what I would have predicted at the start of the year, but they sure have took the long way to get there. Between the 8 games sans Steph, and the boneheaded 4-5 losses that they've pissed away, and Wiseman playing like the worst player in the league, I feel like 6-7 seed would be a success. And who knows, if you can really thread the needle and miss the LA teams, I think they've got a shot against anyone in the West.

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7/8 seed would even be pretty good at this point. Right now we are 10. The Spurs (9) have an extremely rough schedule so I think it pretty likely we will pass them. The Grizzlies (8) are hot and have it pretty easy here on out. Portland (7) has been scuffling and have a medium difficulty schedule. Maybe we could pass one of Portland/Memphis if they bomb? Which puts us in the 8th seed. I'd call that a victory. I don't expect the Lakers or Mavs to fall out of the top six.

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According to http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength Portland has the 6th hardest remaining schedule. Unfortunately Memphis and Dallas have the 3rd and 2nd easiest remaining schedule....

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Do we really want #6 over #7-8 if the prize for #6 is the Clippers and #7-8 get us Phoenix or Utah? I get that the extra rest is nice, and that avoiding potential elimination is nice, but I might rather be #7-8.

#7-8 also carry the massive consolation prize of a lottery ticket of you lose the play-in, where #6 is strictly "no lotto for you."

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Clippers are essentially tied with the Suns (Suns have one less win and one less loss) and have the tiebreaker as well. They could easily be the #2 seed.

In fact I'm starting to wonder if we should just hope that the Clippers rise all the way to the 1 seed. On the other hand, who knows how serious Kawhi's foot injury is.

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After this evening, Suns up by 2 losses and a tie breaker, with Clippers only having 9 games left (Suns 11 games)... it's gonna be hard to overcome that at this point. Utah just got swept by Minny and look vulnerable... but they're 3 games up in the loss column and also own the tie breaker. So if Clips go 7-2 for rest of season, Utah has to go just 6-5 and Phoenix has to go 7-4. These should be achievable... Denver would have to go 10-1 (including beating Clippers) for Clips to slide to 4th seed.

TLDR: Clips likely to stay 3 seed.

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It's really hard to draw up who you will match up with. The Clippers are tied with Phoenix currently, and are super hot. Hell, they only trail Utah by 2 games. It's quite possible they'll be 1 by the end of the season. The Lakers seem locked into 4/5, unless the Mavs go super hot.

Optimal scenario to me is the Dubs get the 6 seed and play Utah/Phoenix with the second round possibility facing the other one or the 7 seed. At the same time, the East teams get hot and the Dubs pick lands #18-20. We're not drawing dead for that possibility yet at least.

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From a pure statistical standpoint, even if you think we have a 70% chance of getting into a series from the 7/8 seed ( which I think is generous) that gets our chance from getting out of the first round to a max of around 35%, if we go straight to a series I say we have at least a 40/45% chance so I'll take less elimination games always.

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Did you factor in the consolation prizes, though?

At #6, even if we get swept in the first round, we get a #18-20 pick at best; and we risk losing the pick altogether if the middle-pack teams in East scuffle a bit.

At #7-8, the consolation prize for getting knocked out of the play-in round is a #13-14 pick *at worst* and a ~5% shot at a top 4 pick.

I kinda think #6 is out of reach, anyway, since Dallas' remaining schedule is pretty easy, but give me #7-8 in any case.

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I mean... Utah just lost to Minny. Dallas could blow a few games and we could get Utah/Phx resting folks and it could happen. Just need to keep rooting for NYK, ATL, & BOS to let us keep the pick

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This is my take.

Right now, #7 looks highly likely if we beat Memphis in the finale based on schedules and form.

Our form and experience is significantly better than the other play-in teams.

If the Warriors can't win 1 of 2 from SA, Memphis and Portland, we have no purpose in the playoffs anyway.

The one exception would be if Steph has an ankle sprain that limits him for a week or so.

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#7 play in seed not having to travel and just needing to win 1 of 2 home games sounds nice; if that’s how it works.

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We had that moment during the previous game where Steph was consoling Klay. Now Draymond shares how much he cares about Klay as a person and what he’s going through. https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/draymond-green-there-klay-thompson-good-bad-days-rehab

After 8 years together, Curry, Green and Klay have such a special place in each others’ lives despite all having such different personalities. I hope they stay together for the rest of their careers.

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Apr 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Oh, my favorite play of the game. 6:54 in Q3, Looney with 4 rebounds on the same play, stays with it, makes the bucket on his 5th attempt. Literally had the room laughing out loud. The effort, the comedy, the results!

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Wife and who both love Looney, we’re cheering so hard for him. It would have been somewhat devastating for him to come away without the 2 points after all that effort and stickwithit

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What's better? A blowout win or a nail-biter victory that keeps you riveted to the screen until the (literal) last second? I guess I'd take the blowout, but close games sure are exciting.

The first half crazy crazy shooting by the Kings could have been a disaster, but instead the W's kept it close and stayed in it with their own brand of defense and offense. The Kings cooled and we kept on sailing. Utterly unnecessary 4th quarter slow down, powered in part by Oubre taking ill-advised shots. Hopefully some lessons learned or reinforced for how the 2nd team can be productive. But I sure miss Bazemore and Lee.

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Blowouts are far better since they are predictive of our future performance in playoffs.

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Blowouts are way better. They bode better for playoff success; plus I don’t need any more drama and stress in my life. I’d be perfectly happy to see the Warriors win the next 12 games easily, followed by the 16 after that.

I don’t any of them to be close in the 4th quarter, if anyone’s taking requests.

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That game had #RandomEnding written all over it but fortunately the Kings got the shaft this time

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Apr 26, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot, punk basketball, Daniel Hardee

This game was hella stressful! Steph tried his best to lose the game in the end but thankfully it worked out. Steph is my favorite and he’s so magical I forget he’s human until he does boneheaded things.

They’re not kidding when they say Chase Center is the safest place there is, they have their sh#t together. There were bomb sniffing dogs at parking garage entrances and randomly around the arena. If you’re vaccinated you show ID and vaccine card to get in. Otherwise, you gotta do a Covid test. No food or drinks at your seats which was a bummer but I understand the reasoning. Masks required the entire time. We were in top section and there were plenty of social distancing seats (not sold on purpose) that were zip tied. 3,252 in attendance. I miss the intensity of a full arena but I like to cheer/yell and stand up a lot, and it was nice not having to worry if the people behind me would rather I sit my ass down.

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Maybe COVID sniffing dogs? IDK but they are a real thing.

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So exciting that you were there!

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Yeah, it was a good time for sure. If you have a Chase card, concessions are 50% off so we were able to get a burrito bowl, fries and 19.5 oz can of Modelo for $13!

Btw, I was on Maui last week and the whales were still there! Also had a turtle swim next to and under my kayak.

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Yeah, there are still a few here and there, but most have ended their vacation and headed for colder waters. Glad to hear you were able to get out on the water; April has been REALLY windy most of the month, so we weren’t able to get out on our paddle boards as much as we would’ve liked, although we did have a manta ray swimming under us yesterday, which is always exciting.

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You guys generated some good noise! Came through well on the broadcast.

So good to hear the MVP chants as well

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Tried our best. Most noise was when Steph let the ball roll for a bit before picking it up and shooting a 3. I believe it was a 2 for 1 situation.

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Wife and I were wondering if the crowd noise was all organic, or was it being “boosted”. Could you tell?

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Definitely being boosted

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Curry’s shooting was silly.

The Kings played the whole possession on D for most of the night.

Barnes was taking it to Wiggins and Oubre like they were piñatas in the first half (beating them relentlessly), but he wore himself out thinking he could get by Looney.

GP2 cooled Buddy off instantly in his minutes and I thought they would just use him to eliminate Buddy from the rest of the game, since GP2 also cut on O and crashed the boards intelligently.

Did I mention Curry?

Good win. Bring back Barnes.

Oh and someone tell Fitz if you start fouling with 30+ seconds left (I think he started calling for it at around 40s) you add several possessions for the other team (assuming you’re going to foul again and again til time runs out?) and increase the odds of random crap happening, and create a miserable fan experience.

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GP2 played his minutes perfectly. He's poised and seems to have good BBIQ. Didn't he also make a 3? Definitely would like to see more.

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Barnes is such an underrated player: Plays good D, competent passer, can shoot the three well. He's just versatile.

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I don't think Barnes plays good D. He can body a 4, but he doesn't contest shots well at all for a guy that athletic.

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I’d would love a glimpse of the alternate universe where KD doesn’t sign with GSW and we instead keep Bogut and the still-developing Barnes.

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I don't think Barnes develops that much with us

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Based on what? Not getting enough touches?

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I'm basing this off of watching him past his time here. He needed more time as a primary ball handler and given more responsibility in general. Here it was strictly spot up and cut. Shoot or 1-2 dribbles max then you're either at the basket or passing it back out. He basically got no pnr opportunities. I also say this because with the Mavs he didn't look great either even with an increased role because it was strictly mid range post up (imagine how Mark Jackson used him). Towards the end of his time with the Mavs they moved him back from PF to SF and started giving him more ball handling opportunities. He looked like a different player. Given all this, I still don't know what happened this year. It's like everything clicked.

The biggest development which is crazy is his passing. I just looked this up cause I was curious. This year he's had 20 games with 5-9 assists. The rest of his career combined? 21 games

This is a long post but what I'm basically saying is his role here was too strict for him to be able to experiment so he could get better at the aspects of the game which he was lacking in.

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Young players need playing time/looser restrictions on their role within a team in order to develop . . . who knew?

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Bogut was on the downturn... not at all what he was earlier with the Warriors. Barnes...? Who knows.

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Lucky win. I'll take it. We are #15 of the top teams. So far, very small chance of losing our pick. Hoping we continue to win and keep our pick!

Couldn't figure out why Kerr didn't play GPII after his 1st q substitution. He scored, he defended. Could he have helped even more than Poole did if they gave him more minutes? For me, Poole is still not a reliable player off the bench. I get that they want him to score, but he doesn't do it consistently. Now with Oubre coming off the bench, Poole seems to defer more. Not sure this can work against better teams. They need a PG for that bench unit and they don't seem to have the confidence in Mannion. More minutes for GPII, please!!

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Not about deference. Poole's confidence takes a hit when misses a couple of shots and he goes into play maker mode. Then he hesitates when he gets the next open shot. Still, we are invested in him being out 6th man and creating space for Curry in the small ball line up... at least until EP comes back. After that, I think it is a match up question.

I also am a fan of GP11 and would love to see him get more run but we need some blow out 4th quarters before that is going to happen. FWIW, Smiley also needs a few more minutes...

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Apr 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

<quote>“So far, very small chance of losing their pick.”</quote>

?? People are concerned about whether the Warriors will lose their first round pick when the draft order is finalized, not where the pick is “so far.” With the Knicks and Hawks playing as well as they are (both 34-27, three games ahead of the Ws) the pick looks to be in pretty good shape, but it’s still not guaranteed.

One thing to keep in mind is that the draft order is determined after the play-in round, so it’s conceivable the Warriors could finish with the 12th or 13th best record and still lose their pick, if a couple of teams with better records get eliminated in the play-in round while the Ws advance.

I do think the pick is generally safe enough where we can root for Warrior wins without too many reservations, though if you care about the pick, I would also make a point of rooting for the Knicks, Hawks, and Celtics to win as much as possible. We can also assuage any losses with the knowledge that it’s good for the pick — particularly losses against teams slightly ahead of us, like the Mavs (tomorrow’s opponent).

That said ... wins are way more fun than losses, so: crush the Mavs!!!

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Assuming the Warriors are in the play-in, there are at least 6 team in the West with better records, so they only need to duck in behind 4x teams in the East, which would be the best of Knicks, Hawks, and Celtics. I'm very confident we won't need to worry about play-in shenanigans effecting our chances of keeping the pick.

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I thought that top-20 pick protection was kind of strange at the time, but didn’t think it would be this much in play as the season winds down. I’m rooting for wins more than keeping the pick, but am greedy so want both. It would also be kind of a bummer to give up a 1st rounder for o e year of Kelly Oubre.

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A top 3 second round pick could be almost as valuable as the late 1st rounder since it offers so much flexibility, courtesy of Arenas.

Id be happy with either pick.

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GP2 just eliminated Heild in those minutes and he moved to rebound and cut off ball well. Definitely thought he’d get more hield time.

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I've always been a big fan of the hockey substitution where u put someone in just to be a nag for a few minutes and throw the opposing player off his rhythm.

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The “G” in “GPII” stands for “Goon”

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I wonder if the crowd helped. The MVP chants were great.

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After the weekend games:

1] Jazz - 44-16 - L1 [lost to Twolves]

2] Suns - 42-18 - L2 [lost to Nets]

3] Clippers - 43-19 - W4

4] Nuggets - 39-21 - W1 [beat Houston]

5] Lakers - 35-25 - L3 [lost to Mavs]

6] Mavs - 33-26 - W3 [beat Lakers]

7] Blazers - 32-28 - L5 [lost to Grizzlies]

8] Grizzlies - 31-28 - W2 [beat Blazers]

9] Spurs - 30-29 - W2 [beat Pelicans]

10] Dubs - 31-30 - W2 [beat Kings]

11] Pelicans - 26-34 - L1 [lost to Spurs]

Knicks [9] and Wizards [8] keep their win streaks going.

Twolves [17-44] won 1 game and are now 2 games ahead of Houston [15-46], which has the worst record in the NBA.

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For the chance of keeping Minny’s pick, it makes a difference only if they get to fourth last place, right?

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Yeah. The odds of Minny’s pick conveying are the same whether they’re they’re the #30, #29, or #28 seed: 59.9% Of those three, #30 is the best for us, since it has the highest “default pick” (#5) with no difference in the chance of the pick conveying. But at this point #30 looks pretty unlikely.

Starting with #27, a more interesting calculus takes place where the “default pick” gets a bit lower, but the chances of the pick conveying increase. At #26, for example, you get a default pick of #6 or #7, a 10.5% shot at the #4 pick, and a 68.4% chance that the pick conveys. I might actually prefer that range of possibilities to the ones you get at #28 or #29.

So... go Wolves??

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An interesting survey would be: would you rather lose ‘21 Minny pick for a chance that they have another, lousier year and we may get’22 #1?

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Pretty sure 0.00% would prefer to get the pick next season?

1. A penny today is always better than a penny tomorrow — and particularly when your core is aging and your franchise player is 33.

2. This year's draft class is supposed to be a strong one. Not so sure about next year's.

3. As Eric notes, Minnesota has every chance to be a decent team with their current core + a #3 pick (that could easily be flipped into a great player if they feel so inclined). They're already starting to play well as Edwards inexorably develops. Towns is a bona fide stud; and by next season Edwards could easily have quietly morphed from an inefficient chucker into a serious force to be reckoned with.

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author

I think if MIN gets their Top 3 pick, they will be adequate next year (assuming they can control DAR’s minutes downwards), so I’d much rather get the pick this year.

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How many more games until Lillard returns? At this right Portland might be the easiest one to displace for the 8th seed.

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Lillard is playing...

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And has been for the last three games. Extremely poorly, by his standards.

His April has been as poor as Steph’s has been spectacular. He started the month fairly close to Steph in scoring volume and efficiency, and ahead of him on a most MVP lists: he’s now down to 28.5 pts per 36 on .604 true shooting, where Steph is at 33.0 pts per 36 on .661 true shooting. 57 points of TS is 11.4 points per 100 possessions.

And his defense remains atrocious while Steph’s remains pretty good.

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I personally had assumed McCollum was out, but he's been there for weeks.

Portland is reeeeally bad right now.

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Oh wow....

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Oh wow we're 10 again?

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T9

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I didn't know the Terminator franchise went that far. I stopped watching after T2.

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T3 and onwards they used the same script and just changed actors.

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