If Embid and Harden are really banged up enough that they play only one of B2Bs, they probably would prefer to play in the SEGABABA (at PHX) - at least I hope so. That makes our PHI game more winnable. Hopefully Suns lose their B2Bs (@SAC, vs PHI).
Michigan State lost in OT so Draymond is likely to be in a pissy mood. He of course had bets on the game with his NBA friends who went to Kansas State. Hope Draymond takes it out on the Sixers.
An important element of the Warrior game that might not get much attention is their 2pt fg%. The Warriors have the 2nd best 2 point % in the league just behind Sacramento. So much attention goes to our 3 point shots but it's the 2 pointers that have made our game this season as well as Sacto's. This has what has kept us competitive and our heads just above the water line. The whole bench shoots 2 pointers quite well and it is what is Poole's bread and butter, not the 3, whereas Dante suffers in this area. Even Klay is limping with his deficient 2 pointers proving he is really a 3 point threat. I don't mind seeing less 3 pointers if we focus on the midrange and paint game.
You don't just choose to shoot 2s or 3s - depends what the other team gives you. Dubs were very cold from 3 in Houston but they were getting really open looks but just missing. You obviously don't want to launch a contested 3 with lots of time on the shot clock but if that same 3 is wide open and you're at least as good as Poole on 3s you should take it. If Dubs decline to take open 3s, then the defense can clog the paint and make the twos harder. The key is to get the best shot in each possession - if you drive all the way to the hoop, that's great - take the 2, but often the best 3 pointers come after a shot from 2 is denied. Conversely, the threat of taking 3s helps create spacing that allows a player from beyond the arc to blow by the POA defender and get the defense rotating, allowing higher percentage shots from either 2 or from 3 depending on the situation.
If we focus on the midrange, we will lose badly. Most of our successful 2s are from dunks and layups. Midrange shots are the worst shots in basketball. It's good to have players like Steph and Klay who can hit some midrange shots with the shot clock running down - it's a bad shot normally but better than no shot at all. The league-wide average on midrange shots is about the same (38.2%) as the Dubs' average on 3s. So on the average, the Dubs would score 1.5 times as many points on 3 point shots than midrange shots if they are making them at the league average.
Obviously, it is more complicated than the way I've described the Dubs shooting. Poole is not a very good 3 point shooter. Just look at his results, this year and career wise. Most of his scoring comes going to the basket and on foul shooting. Even if he doesn't finish his drive, he gets fouled and shoots 2 shots which he often makes. These points add up. 32% 3pt shooting is woeful for a guard. He needs to make better decisions. Klay is a 3 point game wrecker. He is one of the players you want to shoot the 3 along with Curry. Most of his career, Klay would not go to the basket, but he is doing it more now. He has a lot of ball control unlike Poole. I'm not suggesting not spacing the floor. After all, this is Kerr's system. Midrange shots are not bad shots if you have good shooters taking them. Shaun Livingston made his living taking them. We are not focusing on the midrange if I suggest taking more of them. We are not using it to the full benefit of the Warrior talent for making them. We'll still get plenty of 3's. Did you know that the Warriors make 56.6% of their 2 point shots? I don't think you did as I didn't know it, either. The kill shot is what has extended the Warrior leads and made the Splash Bros famous. Using it too much hurts the blue collar aspect of the game, the grind, the paint game, the pnr. Players don't develop a full game and don't know how to score and handle the ball when they shoot 3's too often.
Looks like the Warriors get 1.132 points per shot on 2’s and 1.146 points per shot on 3’s. Doesn’t seem like taking more midrange shots is desirable mathematically. The Warriors would need to shoot 57.3% on those midrange shots to make them good math shots.
However, it does seem that taking two point shots instead of passing to a defensive player from inside the paint would be desirable. And Poole should never take heat check 3’s. Ever. They are about as bad as the pass back turnovers at giving the other team a chance to score against an unprepared Warriors D.
But the math is going to keep the Warriors shooting threes at a high rate.
There's nothing wrong with shooting 3's as long as the player shooting them is a good 3 point shooter. Would you have Loon taking most of your 3's? Is it the math or Kerr's system that has the Warriors shooting so many 3's. If they didn't have the Splash Bros, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Poole does many good things in his game. Discipline is not one of them and that is where I have problems with the coaching.
It’s also not as simple as Poole is not a good 3 point shooter. He’s at .328 this season, which a massive disappointment, but 3FG% can be extremely volatile in young players. He shot .364 last season at age 22, and .391 in the playoffs when it mattered most.
Other players of similar profiles have shown similar volatility. Devin Booker shot .383 from 3 at age 21, .326 at age 22, and .383 again at 25. Donovan Mitchell shot .340 at age 21 and .386 at 25. Jordan Clarkson was .314 at 22 and .368 at 27. Etc.
Elite FT% tends to be a better predictor of future 3FG% in young players than single-season 3FG%, and JP’s career 88% from the stripe checks that box perfectly. He’s clearly a natural shooter who needs to get a better handle on the difference between a good shot and a bad one. His work ethic and overall shooting peripherals suggest he’ll get there.
Giving up on the three would be disastrous for him, imo. Without it, he’s barely an NBA player. He’s a very nice driver and finisher, but a lot of that comes from leveraging the threat of the three ball. He put up 8 threes per 36 in last year’s playoffs when lit the world on fire with .654 TS. He needs to figure out how to get back to that guy, likely (as with all young shooters) through a combo of better shot selection and hours of reps in the gym.
Eh, I'm more inclined to believe that the 2-3 month hot streak last season from 3 from JP was the exception. Draymond shot 38% one season and he's been terrible from 3 after that. Poole's a 33% career 3 point shooter, which tracks with his percentage this season (32.8%). No one is saying he shouldn't shoot 3s anymore, but he's not close to the quality of 3 pt shooter as Steph or Klay, so he shouldn't be taking the same difficulty and volume of shots from that range. His elite NBA skill is creating off the pick and roll and getting to the rim and drawing fouls. That's the one thing he has over everyone on GSW.
It's true that FT shooting tends to correlate with above average 3 pt shooting, but it doesn't always hold up. JP is one example. Another is Shai. We can speculate all day about why they aren't good 3pt shooters, but what matters is right now they're not. Shai is a 90% at the FT line but he understands 3s aren't where he's the most effective - 3s are there to keep the defense honest and open up their driving games. I think JP can take an important lesson from that.
I'm not suggesting he gives up the 3's. And, I wasn't suggesting that he can't become a consistent 3 point shooter. Until he gets back to what you've been talking about, the Warriors will have difficulties with him. Any player can change. What is it that helps a player change? If you have the answer to that, you are probably in the wrong business. lol.
"Midrange shots are the worst shots in basketball." This is often said but if you can hit 'em at a high rate, it's not a bad shot. Remember Shaun Livingston's turnaround midrange jumper. That sucker was money.
Yet Shaun — despite his savvy ballhandling/playmaking and versatile D — was a significant net negative for the team on the floor, especially offensively. -6.5 points per 100 possessions in his five seasons in GS, with a well below league average .553 TS%.
His “money” midrange shot actually bricked more often than not — .464 from 10-15 feet in his five seasons, or the equivalent of .309 from three (while often clogging up the paint for easy cuts and layups).
The net on-off number is of course a bit unfair to him, since more than any other rotation guy he was on the floor to replace Steph — who last I checked liked to dabble in the three ball, and rarely launched from midrange (despite being a much better midrange shooter than Shaun). The offensive efficiency was night and day with Shaun on the floor in place of Steph, largely because 2 is ~66.7% of 3.
Fzwinter has it right. Broadly speaking, the long two is the worst shot in basketball. The biggest reason those Warriors teams were able to run off now insane-looking records like 207-39 with double digit net ratings while the best teams now max out at 50-something wins a year and 5-something net ratings is that more than half the teams back then were mathematically handicapped from the get-go by the belief that mid-range shots were money.
Nowadays everyone launches hella threes, and lo, anyone can beat anyone on a given night and the league has crazy parity. And as we know from watching the Warriors road D this year (or their offense almost any year) once the threes start falling, it opens up all manner of easy cuts to the rim, layups and dunks, and the overall D collapses.
It’s the threat of the three ball that leverages all the easy looks from two. It works both ways, of course, as aggressively attacking the rim can also open up great looks from three. But deliberately hunting mid-range twos on a regular basis is a great way to lose a lot of games. If only our opponents would do it more!!
Clippers beat the Thunder 127-105. Clippers move to 39-35 while the Thunder fall to 36-37. Clippers remain in the #5 spot and Thunder fall to the #11 spot.
NBA.com has them dropping to 11th, losing the 4 way tiebreaker between the Mavs/Lakers/Pels/Thunder... this is gonna get crazy down the stretch here...
Clippers up 92-80 against the Thunder after 3 quarters. It was a close game until Clippers started to make four 3's in a row towards the end of 3rd quarter.
Anyone who thinks Fitz and Kelenna are homers has not watched enough other announcing teams -- Fitz and Kelenna are way below average. There are some unwatchable announcers out there. (And yes, for a long time with League Pass I didn't know you could change streams and always defaulted to the home team so I've heard a lot of bad announcing lol)
Fitz may not be as bad as some but is a total homer. When you see plays wrong on purpose just to put your guys in a positive light it really takes away from the game.
And when your as demonstrative about it with all the historyonics it makes it unbearable.
As I recall, one reason Fitz got a rep as a homer was his suck-up interviews with his employers, rather than his play-by-play. Also, back in the Cohan era, Fitz was an over-the-top apologist for some of the really bad moves the team made. Of course, they're paying his salary but he went above and beyond.
Another reason is that Fitz is a whiny homer compared to announcers like Chic Hearn in his heyday. So the transition was really rough on the ears. Now everyone is a whiny homer so all of us don’t have many better options. The fact that the Van Gundy’s are whiny national broadcasters normalizes everyone to the current trashy state of NBA TV announcing.
Yay Fitz is now both an average announcer and still very slurpy.
I generally like Fitz's play calling. Some of his commentary I could live without. Yes he got the job, and as you recall it was at Greg Papa's expense. Papa had the gig from 1986-97, and at the time he was ousted, he seemed to think his friend Fitz had betrayed him and taken his gig, although supposedly the issue was that Papa also was broadcasting Raiders games and, as I recall, A's games. But Cohan knew that was happening before Papa took the Raiders gig and didn't object then so... Fitz was pretty much of a tool back in the day. He is way better now.
Last game 2/13 for Wiggins. Maybe they meant Kuminga's post-All Star stats are close to Wiggins' pre-All Star?
Either way, Kuminga is definitely the Warriors Post-Break Breakout Young Player(TM) this season. Except for one bad shooting game, he's been putting up DeAndre Jordan shooting splits (except adding some 3's) in March while playing mostly great defense. It's been so much fun to watch.
New thread here: https://dubnationhq.com/p/warriors-more-than-survive-killer?sd=pf
Plus computer-generated odds for the different season outcomes for GSW!
Plus this ONE NEAT TRICK will improve your perimeter defense
Paul George on trying to lock down Steph and Klay: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-KQjQGb0d4
That was great. thx.
If Embid and Harden are really banged up enough that they play only one of B2Bs, they probably would prefer to play in the SEGABABA (at PHX) - at least I hope so. That makes our PHI game more winnable. Hopefully Suns lose their B2Bs (@SAC, vs PHI).
I don't understand the logic in splitting them up. I can't see Harden leading them to a win against either team. Just go for one.
Michigan State lost in OT so Draymond is likely to be in a pissy mood. He of course had bets on the game with his NBA friends who went to Kansas State. Hope Draymond takes it out on the Sixers.
Unfortunately, none of the 6ers went to K-state. Embiid went to Kansas, but they probably hate K-state, too (in state rivalries and all).
I was thinking more of just being in a crappy mood and taking it out on whoever is in front of him! 😊
I understood that. I should've written that I meant with respect to even extra visceral motivation, a K-state player might have added to the fire ...
An important element of the Warrior game that might not get much attention is their 2pt fg%. The Warriors have the 2nd best 2 point % in the league just behind Sacramento. So much attention goes to our 3 point shots but it's the 2 pointers that have made our game this season as well as Sacto's. This has what has kept us competitive and our heads just above the water line. The whole bench shoots 2 pointers quite well and it is what is Poole's bread and butter, not the 3, whereas Dante suffers in this area. Even Klay is limping with his deficient 2 pointers proving he is really a 3 point threat. I don't mind seeing less 3 pointers if we focus on the midrange and paint game.
Klay in the past has had a very nice midrange jumper. I'd love to see him use it more on nights when the 3 isn't falling.
Damned right.
You don't just choose to shoot 2s or 3s - depends what the other team gives you. Dubs were very cold from 3 in Houston but they were getting really open looks but just missing. You obviously don't want to launch a contested 3 with lots of time on the shot clock but if that same 3 is wide open and you're at least as good as Poole on 3s you should take it. If Dubs decline to take open 3s, then the defense can clog the paint and make the twos harder. The key is to get the best shot in each possession - if you drive all the way to the hoop, that's great - take the 2, but often the best 3 pointers come after a shot from 2 is denied. Conversely, the threat of taking 3s helps create spacing that allows a player from beyond the arc to blow by the POA defender and get the defense rotating, allowing higher percentage shots from either 2 or from 3 depending on the situation.
If we focus on the midrange, we will lose badly. Most of our successful 2s are from dunks and layups. Midrange shots are the worst shots in basketball. It's good to have players like Steph and Klay who can hit some midrange shots with the shot clock running down - it's a bad shot normally but better than no shot at all. The league-wide average on midrange shots is about the same (38.2%) as the Dubs' average on 3s. So on the average, the Dubs would score 1.5 times as many points on 3 point shots than midrange shots if they are making them at the league average.
Obviously, it is more complicated than the way I've described the Dubs shooting. Poole is not a very good 3 point shooter. Just look at his results, this year and career wise. Most of his scoring comes going to the basket and on foul shooting. Even if he doesn't finish his drive, he gets fouled and shoots 2 shots which he often makes. These points add up. 32% 3pt shooting is woeful for a guard. He needs to make better decisions. Klay is a 3 point game wrecker. He is one of the players you want to shoot the 3 along with Curry. Most of his career, Klay would not go to the basket, but he is doing it more now. He has a lot of ball control unlike Poole. I'm not suggesting not spacing the floor. After all, this is Kerr's system. Midrange shots are not bad shots if you have good shooters taking them. Shaun Livingston made his living taking them. We are not focusing on the midrange if I suggest taking more of them. We are not using it to the full benefit of the Warrior talent for making them. We'll still get plenty of 3's. Did you know that the Warriors make 56.6% of their 2 point shots? I don't think you did as I didn't know it, either. The kill shot is what has extended the Warrior leads and made the Splash Bros famous. Using it too much hurts the blue collar aspect of the game, the grind, the paint game, the pnr. Players don't develop a full game and don't know how to score and handle the ball when they shoot 3's too often.
Looks like the Warriors get 1.132 points per shot on 2’s and 1.146 points per shot on 3’s. Doesn’t seem like taking more midrange shots is desirable mathematically. The Warriors would need to shoot 57.3% on those midrange shots to make them good math shots.
However, it does seem that taking two point shots instead of passing to a defensive player from inside the paint would be desirable. And Poole should never take heat check 3’s. Ever. They are about as bad as the pass back turnovers at giving the other team a chance to score against an unprepared Warriors D.
But the math is going to keep the Warriors shooting threes at a high rate.
There's nothing wrong with shooting 3's as long as the player shooting them is a good 3 point shooter. Would you have Loon taking most of your 3's? Is it the math or Kerr's system that has the Warriors shooting so many 3's. If they didn't have the Splash Bros, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Poole does many good things in his game. Discipline is not one of them and that is where I have problems with the coaching.
It’s also not as simple as Poole is not a good 3 point shooter. He’s at .328 this season, which a massive disappointment, but 3FG% can be extremely volatile in young players. He shot .364 last season at age 22, and .391 in the playoffs when it mattered most.
Other players of similar profiles have shown similar volatility. Devin Booker shot .383 from 3 at age 21, .326 at age 22, and .383 again at 25. Donovan Mitchell shot .340 at age 21 and .386 at 25. Jordan Clarkson was .314 at 22 and .368 at 27. Etc.
Elite FT% tends to be a better predictor of future 3FG% in young players than single-season 3FG%, and JP’s career 88% from the stripe checks that box perfectly. He’s clearly a natural shooter who needs to get a better handle on the difference between a good shot and a bad one. His work ethic and overall shooting peripherals suggest he’ll get there.
Giving up on the three would be disastrous for him, imo. Without it, he’s barely an NBA player. He’s a very nice driver and finisher, but a lot of that comes from leveraging the threat of the three ball. He put up 8 threes per 36 in last year’s playoffs when lit the world on fire with .654 TS. He needs to figure out how to get back to that guy, likely (as with all young shooters) through a combo of better shot selection and hours of reps in the gym.
Eh, I'm more inclined to believe that the 2-3 month hot streak last season from 3 from JP was the exception. Draymond shot 38% one season and he's been terrible from 3 after that. Poole's a 33% career 3 point shooter, which tracks with his percentage this season (32.8%). No one is saying he shouldn't shoot 3s anymore, but he's not close to the quality of 3 pt shooter as Steph or Klay, so he shouldn't be taking the same difficulty and volume of shots from that range. His elite NBA skill is creating off the pick and roll and getting to the rim and drawing fouls. That's the one thing he has over everyone on GSW.
It's true that FT shooting tends to correlate with above average 3 pt shooting, but it doesn't always hold up. JP is one example. Another is Shai. We can speculate all day about why they aren't good 3pt shooters, but what matters is right now they're not. Shai is a 90% at the FT line but he understands 3s aren't where he's the most effective - 3s are there to keep the defense honest and open up their driving games. I think JP can take an important lesson from that.
I'm not suggesting he gives up the 3's. And, I wasn't suggesting that he can't become a consistent 3 point shooter. Until he gets back to what you've been talking about, the Warriors will have difficulties with him. Any player can change. What is it that helps a player change? If you have the answer to that, you are probably in the wrong business. lol.
Haha, indeed!
"Midrange shots are the worst shots in basketball." This is often said but if you can hit 'em at a high rate, it's not a bad shot. Remember Shaun Livingston's turnaround midrange jumper. That sucker was money.
Yet Shaun — despite his savvy ballhandling/playmaking and versatile D — was a significant net negative for the team on the floor, especially offensively. -6.5 points per 100 possessions in his five seasons in GS, with a well below league average .553 TS%.
His “money” midrange shot actually bricked more often than not — .464 from 10-15 feet in his five seasons, or the equivalent of .309 from three (while often clogging up the paint for easy cuts and layups).
The net on-off number is of course a bit unfair to him, since more than any other rotation guy he was on the floor to replace Steph — who last I checked liked to dabble in the three ball, and rarely launched from midrange (despite being a much better midrange shooter than Shaun). The offensive efficiency was night and day with Shaun on the floor in place of Steph, largely because 2 is ~66.7% of 3.
Fzwinter has it right. Broadly speaking, the long two is the worst shot in basketball. The biggest reason those Warriors teams were able to run off now insane-looking records like 207-39 with double digit net ratings while the best teams now max out at 50-something wins a year and 5-something net ratings is that more than half the teams back then were mathematically handicapped from the get-go by the belief that mid-range shots were money.
Nowadays everyone launches hella threes, and lo, anyone can beat anyone on a given night and the league has crazy parity. And as we know from watching the Warriors road D this year (or their offense almost any year) once the threes start falling, it opens up all manner of easy cuts to the rim, layups and dunks, and the overall D collapses.
It’s the threat of the three ball that leverages all the easy looks from two. It works both ways, of course, as aggressively attacking the rim can also open up great looks from three. But deliberately hunting mid-range twos on a regular basis is a great way to lose a lot of games. If only our opponents would do it more!!
Thunder's next game is against the Lakers tomorrow, and Clippers next game is against the Pels on Saturday.
Clippers beat the Thunder 127-105. Clippers move to 39-35 while the Thunder fall to 36-37. Clippers remain in the #5 spot and Thunder fall to the #11 spot.
NBA.com has them dropping to 11th, losing the 4 way tiebreaker between the Mavs/Lakers/Pels/Thunder... this is gonna get crazy down the stretch here...
Thunder is 2-1 against the Mavs, 1-1 against the Lakers, and 1-3 against the Pels. Overall: 4-5
Mavs are 1-2 against the Thunder, 3-1 against the Lakers, and 2-2 against the Pels. Overall: 6-5
Lakers are 1-3 against the Mavs, 1-1 against the Thunder, and 3-1 against the Pels. Overall: 5-5
Pels are 3-1 against the Thunder, 2-2 against the Mavs, and 1-3 against the Lakers. Overall: 6-6
Based on that logic, nba.com put Mavs (6-5), Lakers (5-5), Pels (6-6), and Thunder (4-5).
Clippers up 92-80 against the Thunder after 3 quarters. It was a close game until Clippers started to make four 3's in a row towards the end of 3rd quarter.
Now up 18
Hyland, Batum, and Kawhi are 10/13 threes tonight.
I get the sense half the time that the Clippers announcers are only Clippers fans because they're paid to be.
Kawhi's going beast mode tonight: 24 points, 11/13 FGs, 2/3 threes, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals.
For all Fitz and Kelenna are often called homers, watching this Clippers broadcast I am reminded they aren’t the worst by far.
Celtics annonuncers are the worst by far
And the Rockets.
Anyone who thinks Fitz and Kelenna are homers has not watched enough other announcing teams -- Fitz and Kelenna are way below average. There are some unwatchable announcers out there. (And yes, for a long time with League Pass I didn't know you could change streams and always defaulted to the home team so I've heard a lot of bad announcing lol)
Fitz may not be as bad as some but is a total homer. When you see plays wrong on purpose just to put your guys in a positive light it really takes away from the game.
And when your as demonstrative about it with all the historyonics it makes it unbearable.
As I recall, one reason Fitz got a rep as a homer was his suck-up interviews with his employers, rather than his play-by-play. Also, back in the Cohan era, Fitz was an over-the-top apologist for some of the really bad moves the team made. Of course, they're paying his salary but he went above and beyond.
My grumpy old man take:
Another reason is that Fitz is a whiny homer compared to announcers like Chic Hearn in his heyday. So the transition was really rough on the ears. Now everyone is a whiny homer so all of us don’t have many better options. The fact that the Van Gundy’s are whiny national broadcasters normalizes everyone to the current trashy state of NBA TV announcing.
Yay Fitz is now both an average announcer and still very slurpy.
Maybe. But he was the one that got the job and kept the job. So there's that.
I generally like Fitz's play calling. Some of his commentary I could live without. Yes he got the job, and as you recall it was at Greg Papa's expense. Papa had the gig from 1986-97, and at the time he was ousted, he seemed to think his friend Fitz had betrayed him and taken his gig, although supposedly the issue was that Papa also was broadcasting Raiders games and, as I recall, A's games. But Cohan knew that was happening before Papa took the Raiders gig and didn't object then so... Fitz was pretty much of a tool back in the day. He is way better now.
Yeah and horse shit tastes better than cat shit but I still don't wanna eat it
You've done a taste test?
Haha thankfully no but you haven't either and yet I'm sure you agree with me
Indeed I haven't; therefore, I have no opinion on the matter.
Honestly, I want my announcers to be homers.
There’s homers and then there are real homers. Actually the Clippers announcers aren’t that bad, most of the time. Probably about average.
Their homerism isn't that bad... it's the dialogue that's just bland and dramatic...
Ahhh what great writing Daniel!! Brought a huge smile to my face, thank you!
Clippers-Thunder tied at 54-54 at halftime.
Clippers up 36-29 against the Thunder after the 1st quarter.
According to SFGate, I need to pay closer attention during games, I had no idea Wiggs put up any stats since the ASB:
>> Wiggins isn't quite producing at the furious level of 2021-22 Wiggins, but he's
>> providing a decent approximation. During this post-All-Star-break stretch, Wiggins’
>> stats are close to his season averages of 17.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game.
https://www.sfgate.com/warriors/article/jonathan-kuminga-warriors-wing-17856779.php
Last game 2/13 for Wiggins. Maybe they meant Kuminga's post-All Star stats are close to Wiggins' pre-All Star?
Either way, Kuminga is definitely the Warriors Post-Break Breakout Young Player(TM) this season. Except for one bad shooting game, he's been putting up DeAndre Jordan shooting splits (except adding some 3's) in March while playing mostly great defense. It's been so much fun to watch.
Clippers-Thunder game has started several minutes ago.