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I don't want to stick my head in the lion's mouth, but ...

I feel like a lot of the angst around the last few weeks of Warriors basketball is due to the fact that we, as fans, want to see the Dubs win every night. At the beginning of the season, against any realistic projection of the Dubs strength, without Klay, we got to experience that as a reality and it was glorious. Now we're doing our best impression of the freefallin' Nets, and life sucks. But the long view is what's important here: the Warriors are making the playoffs basically no matter what, and the only thing that matters is that they get to the playoffs healthy and competent. Finishing 15-5 last year was lovely, but that head of steam didn't translate into play-in victory and a playoff spot.

Currently it feels like the Warriors could lose to anyone they face in the first round - that's how vulnerable they are. If they can work through this, they may be a stronger team by the time the playoffs arrive. If they can't, well, winning the NBA Finals is always a long shot, barring the three year super team with KD (which still only managed to win twice).

It also feels like the NBA is at this really interesting inflection point: the young guys leading upstart teams (Ja, Luka, perhaps someday Zion, etc.) are trying to boot the old guys (LeBron, Steph, etc.) out the door. It's going to lead to some fierce playoff fights, as others on this site have mentioned recently. Whether the Warriors win or lose, and I'm looking forward to an exciting as hell postseason (minus the Sixers foul-ball).

OK, rant over, go on back to arguing about whether the Warriors should find some discarded tall human and put him on the team.

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This is close to how I’m feeling. Once I adjusted my expectations of what this team can achieve (0.500 minus Dray as G&B mentioned), each game has been more about the small wins/developments as opposed to the W. The effort, execution on help D, finding out that hack-a-Loon is a thing, giving the ball to Steph for the iso game winner, these are all things that we have learnt the hard way over the last couple of weeks.

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Also, since I'm just as human as everyone else here (but not a tall enough human for the Warriors to consider signing), we'd better beat the Lakers tonight or I'm going to pout for a week.

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The team is suppose to have a lot of talent (so I keep hearing) and the coaching staff was improved with new blood. I refuse to believe that the team winning is solely dependent on one player (Green). C’mon. The coaches should be able to adjust the game with the personnel they have.

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It seems simple to me:

With healthy Steph, Klay and Dray, this team is a title contender (I refuse to explain this).

With just healthy Steph and Dray, this team is a title contender (as shown earlier this season).

With just healthy Steph and Klay, this team is wobbly, probably better than .500, but not likely a contender (as shown in recent weeks).

Now you can ride the new coaches all you want, but they were mostly brought in to develop the rookies, which they've done well with Kuminga and Moody and "we'll see" with Wiseman.

If you have been watching the team, you know that Draymond is the floor general on offense and defense. Yes, he matters A LOT. That is why Kerr calls him, not Steph, the heart of the team. Steph is the most talented player on the team by many metrics, but Draymond is obscenely valuable.

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Kuminga had 18 points, 8/11 FGs, and 9 rebounds against the Lakers last month. How will the Lakers try and limit his offense tonight, and how will the Warriors respond?

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Safe to assume Lakers aren't gonna be doing any special game-planning for JFK.

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It won’t be special game planning, but you know LeBron is gonna try to take the kids to school, and they’ll be like: “Hey, Russ… keep an eye on your man, ok? Scouting report says he likes to cut”

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As a facilitator, Dray>>>Steph>anyone else on the team. It dramatically changes the nature of the team without Dray, and it makes it much harder for the shooters to get shots. It makes sense that Steph himself is dramatically affected by this. I expect all the shooters' percentages to go up when Dray is back, and if he really does have a chronic injury that will inhibit his future here (something I am hoping so hard isn't the case), that could be the single biggest factor in determining the remainder of the dynasty.

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I think Curry is a better facilitator.

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Lakers starting lineup against the Clippers was: Westbrook, Monk, Reaves, James, and Howard. They played Anthony, Bazemore, Augustin, Johnson, and Ellington for their 2nd unit and Gabriel during garbage time.

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Listened to 95.7 for a little bit and callers and texters are saying Klay is a problem and needs to be benched or worse. Amazing that the hosts are having a whole conversation about it without talking much about Dray's absence. Such pathetic "analysis" compared to here. Love you DNHQ!

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Mar 6, 2022·edited Mar 6, 2022

Even at his peak, Klay was aces with Steph + Dray on the court, but had issues when asked to be a primary offensive creator — for example, in the early days of Steph + KD, when they tried to accelerate their chemistry by aligning their minutes, leaving Klay to lead some awful offensive units with little help.

His D, great at as it typically is on-ball, is also prone to lapses off ball. Defensive metrics are notoriously unreliable, but Klay never rated as a great defender, where Dray and Dre typically did. And as expected, post-injury, Klay's D has come back a bit more slowly than his O.

That said, Klay is an absolute perfect fit alongside Steph and Klay, a versatile defender (even if he's better now guarding 3s and 4s than on 1s and 2s), and as clutch as they come when the stakes are the highest. 95.7 callers calling him a "problem" because after two years layoff he isn't at every single moment his absolute peak self (which was actually a slightly less perfect player than the idealized version we kept in our hearts for two years) can stuff it. If the Warriors are gonna win it all this year — not a high likelihood, but not a zero chance, either — Klay is gonna be a huge part of it.

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RemovedMar 5, 2022·edited Mar 5, 2022
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Mar 5, 2022·edited Mar 5, 2022

Yeah but you don’t bench him. He is a future HoF working his way back into prime form

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Mar 6, 2022·edited Mar 6, 2022

That is an interesting interpretation of what I (G&B) said. I don't think it reflects what I actually said, nor what I intended. I expounded on the Dray connection upthread^^

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Lakers stats:

Offense:

13 in points scored (110.4)

9 in points in paint!!!! (48.2)

4 in fastbreak points!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (14.8)

24 in offensive efficiency

12 in shooting % (46.5%)

19 in three point % (34.6%)

8 in two point % !!!!!! (53.9%)

26 in off. rebound % (20.9%)

22 in def. rebound % (75.9%)

22 in total rebound % (49.0%)

4 in opponent blocks!!!!!!!!!!!! (4.1)

28 in opponent steals (8.5)

17 in assists (24.0)

27 in turnovers (14.7)

Defense:

26 in points allowed (112.7)

27 in opponent points in paint (50.3)

29 in opponent fastbreak points (14.5)

16 in defensive efficiency

18 in opponent shooting % (46.0%)

15 in opponent three point % (34.8%)

20 in opponent two point % (53.4%)

4 in blocks!!!!!!!!!!!!! (5.7)

7 in steals!!!!!!!! (8.0)

26 in opponent assists (25.8)

9 in opponent turnovers!!!! (14.5)

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@MavsPR

6m

Luka Dončić (left toe sprain) will miss today’s game against Sacramento.

I’d honestly be curious to see how many times this year a star has suited up against the Dubs and then rested the next game OR has come back from an injury when they play the Warriors

No excuses we beat the teams in front of us but I mean it seems we’re always getting everyone’s best shot best personnel and expect this team to run at maximum effort game in and game out.

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So, we need defense and our best defensive player is out, thank you basketball gods 🙄

Today Grizzlies gonna win for sure, luckily Jazz lost yesterday, but we need to chase some wins now, but more important, play with joy, as the good old times

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Mar 5, 2022Liked by punk basketball

For anyone who may have forgotten how much Dray + Dre make Klay and the whole machine go, a brief (8 second) reminder...

https://twitter.com/warriors/status/1127054282161774593

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That seems like a lifetime ago

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Mar 6, 2022·edited Mar 6, 2022

And yet it was only three years. And I think the roster now, when whole, is arguably better than the KD-less version of that team — the one that knocked off Houston, swept Portland in the WCF, and might have won the whole thing had Danny Green not derailed Klay's career.

Yeah, the Steph-Dray-Klay-Dre core has declined substantially since then, but you can make a case that that's offset by the additions of Wiggs, GP2, Otto, and Poole (none of whom have real equivalents on the KD-less version of the 2018 team).

In any case, I want see what this team looks like whole for more than seven seconds before writing them off completely.

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Yeah, I'd guess this year is the end of the line for Andre. He's intimated as much. 38 is pushing it in the NBA; it's actually pretty remarkable he looks as good as he does, on the rare occasions he's able to play. But even in his diminished form, I think there's still a scenario where he shows up for 15-20 minutes and helps us win a big playoff game or two, as in the clip above (which ended the Rockets' season).

On the peak Warriors, Andre always had a special synergy with Klay, making it his sworn duty to "get him paid" with sweet dimes like the one in the clip above.

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Mar 5, 2022Liked by punk basketball

One more Player A/B...

Player A: 14.1 pts per 36 on .473 TS

Player B: 13.1 pts per 36 on .542 TS

A is Davion Mitchell at age 23; B is Moses Moody at age 19.

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More kuminga! Get kuminga into that draymond role, he can punish the 4 on 3s if surrounded by shooters

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I agree with this. I think Klay and Moody have both shown some capability to run a 4 on 3 but both are more valuable right now as shooters in that scenario. Kuminga with shooters around him seems like the simplest solution. If it's crunch time though I expect the gameplan would be to foul Kuminga and live with the results, and so they might need to come up with a different solution if he can't hit them.

Another option is Poole, but I don't know how effective he is as a screener to even force the opponent to blitz. Hopefully something they are working on/testing out in practice.

The real unstated issue for Poole is the lack of Draymond though, it's just much harder to cover for his bad perimeter defense if you have Wiggins playing the 4. Wiggins honestly does cause a lot of subtle issues (also can't run a 4 on 3 and is basically a hack-a target right now) and probably needs Draymond back more than anyone.

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I see Kuminga as more of a 3/4 like Wiggins than a 4/5 like Dray. Maybe he'll eventually grow into that, but he's pretty skinny, and has a lot more of the mental breakdowns - which is fine for a rookie.

But yeah, our perimeter D is what's killing us. Can't seem to stop point of attack and then our defensive scrambling is too messy

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I’ll never understand your fascination with Kuminga as a hack a target… but you do you

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Mar 6, 2022·edited Mar 6, 2022

"Hack-a-Kuminga" = allowing 137 points per 100 possessions, plus allowing the Warriors to set their defense.

(Not saying Belilaugh is supporting this, just saying).

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Yeah

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Makes two of us who don't understand because I didn't say anything about hack-a-Kuminga lol

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“ If it's crunch time though I expect the gameplan would be to foul Kuminga and live with the results, and so they might need to come up with a different solution if he can't hit them.”

This sounds like that. And you’ve explicitly mentioned hack-a-Kuminga before.

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The Hack-A-Shaq technique as I understand it is intentionally fouling players who are away from the play. Not fouling guys who are attacking the basket with a spread floor.

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No. The Hack-A-Shaq technique is to hack ... Shaq. Regardless of if he had the ball. To make him shoot FT instead of dunking in their faces. It became a generalized term to foul the worst FT shooter (so, if you were using it on the Warriors this season you would choose GP2, Dray, JTA, Loon Wiggins and Bjeliça before JK). If you weren't suggesting that opponents would use hack-a-Kuminga then it's only on a technicality.

Anyway, the bigger questions are: would they actually do that? and, if so, would JK hit his FT under that pressure?

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Curry klay wiggins porter kuminga I dont see how that's not a great small ball lineup, swap out wiggins for poole if we can get away with it defensively.

But offensively that lineup should not be able to be stopped

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I think there are still issues on the defensive end, but yeah that lineup should be unstoppable offensively.

Quite frankly just about anyone with Curry/Klay/Wiggins/Porter should result in an unstoppable offense if Wiggins can hit free throws in the 65-70% range instead of this atrocious sub-50% BS we've seen lately, I can't wait to see it with Draymond.

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Player A: 19.8 pts per 36 on .592 TS

Player B: 15.2 pts per 36 on .549 TS

Player C: 15.4 pts per 36 on .543 TS

A is Kuminga; B is Scottie Barnes; C is Evan Mobley. League average TS% is .561.

I prefer Barnes' playmaking and D; and Mobley's size and D. But Kuminga is also 14 months younger than Barnes and 16 months younger than Mobley. For a 19 year old athlete, 14-16 months of development time is an æon. Look how far JK has come in the 12 months since he was inefficient chucker for G-League Ignite.

TLDR: +1!

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Last couple of games I felt likes hes been lost in the offense like wiggins does, no way someone that explosive should score less then 10 playing with curry and shooters

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Without GPII I think this game will be more challenging than the odds would have us believe. He injects so much life and energy into our game.

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That being said, all we need is a couple of Klay splashes and some Kuminga blocks and that energy will be right there.

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Mar 5, 2022Liked by punk basketball

By now, my brothers and sisters and uncles and aunties in DNHQ know that I don’t write long criticism unless I am very depressed and lack of sleep.

I am depressed these days because I don’t see any joy in Warriors eyes.

I want coaching staffs to have Moses Moody’s mentality ! A pit-bull mentality and some creativity!

I don’t remember when was the last time I was excited to see how Warriors won a game with unexpected strategy. It’s been a player(s)’ unexpected explosion.

Of course Joker played excellent but his coach came out with Hack- a Looney. Doncic prayed like Euro- Lebron but his coach coached to kill the head of snake, Steph.

Same with Box and one by Raptors coach.

Using a player(s) as a secret weapon(s) cannot be reliable obviously. Iguodala or Wiseman.

Is it because they( coaches) couldn’t go to Napa due to COVID and no more nice place in Napa after the devastating fire?

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Mar 5, 2022Liked by punk basketball

> I don’t remember when was the last time I was excited to see how Warriors won a game with unexpected strategy

Here's one, perhaps. Were you expecting GP2 to play like a forward before the season? You're probably used to it now, but given that no other coaching staff has ever used him that way that's been a pretty unexpected and successful strategy that has helped them win a lot of games, no?

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What I meant was some strategy without using a particular player like GPII, being resourceful. I don’t know much about basketball plays let alone coaching. Maybe it’s impossible what I am talking about. 🤷‍♂️

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Mar 5, 2022Liked by punk basketball

From your mouth to God's ear. This squad has the look of a team that is out of answers and just waiting for Dray to come back and set things right, so I'm not optimistic until he does. But a big win against the Lakers would help.

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They have three head coaches on this team's bench. Surely someone can inject a strategic curveball or two to unshackle Curry and any other Warrior who could force opponents out of the trapping defense even if for only a quarter (4th preferred).

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Why we need Wiseman sooner than later.

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Fair points, but also a bit strawmannish, imo. I'd guess most of the people who were saying (in so many words) "just wait until Klay comes back" and are now saying "just wait until until Dray comes back" are keenly aware of all these nuances, caveats, and concerns.

It'll still be super-nice to see them both back.

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Mar 6, 2022·edited Mar 6, 2022

Understand this: It is great that Klay is back. If you look at his stats, they're actually quite good with a dip in shooting. Same with Steph. Those issues are connected to Dray being gone, as he is without question our best facilitator. The three members of the core are synergistic this way.

I feel your concerns about Dray vs the bigs, and all we can do is hope that some combination of Looney, Kuminga and Wiseman can help with that. Personally, I'd love to bring in another big, even a mediocre one like Willie Cauley-Stein. Belilaugh has convinced me on that one :)

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