Lee and Bazemore going down to COVID protocol are serious blows. I hope the Warriors are considering a 10 day contract for someone. Saw the name Glenn Robinson III and he'd make a lot of sense imo given that he knows the system already. But perhaps by the time he quarantined, 7 of the 10 days would be over or something.
If this team is going to play small and fast, they need a deeper rotation than they currently have available.
Anyone else see KD liked a comment about Steph being ass? My like for him has been on the wane as his bitterness for GS, for some unknown reason, has become more apparent. Now this? I'm done with that guy.
Durant is a brilliant basketball player and a great competitor, but he's petty, vain, and self-centered, even among NBA stars. As great a talent as he is, I don't miss him.
Whatever the surrounding content, the content of the tweet was very far from benign and he was probably switching out of a burner because he quickly unliked, but not before he got caught.
Sources: Warriors forward Damion Lee is entering the league's health and safety protocols for what's expected to be a 10-14 day absence. Lee has been a huge help lately for an already thin rotation.
The virus can still spread it's just so you don't get sick. It's a much smaller chance for spread but there is still a lot of debate as to what the percentage is.
Yeah, super rare and hard to study. They looked at vaccinated healthcare workers who were constantly exposed to Covid patients and even that was like looking for a needle in a haystack for positive cases. Maybe this was a false positive?
Detroit and Orlando tanking hard, resting guys who presumably are able to play. Obviously the Thunder are doing it hard too. For whatever reason the Cavs don't seem to be (yet), but there's a real possibility of Minnesota rising to 5th to last if they keep up their ~.500 pace just because all their competition is tanking so hard while they are trying to win.
There's a good chance they decide to tank as well if they get to close to the Mendoza line. Be huge for their franchise to get one of the first 3 picks and odds start dropping out there.
I was thinking about that too, the probability of keeping the pick at 5th worst is notably worse than bottom 3. Perhaps they start reining it in as well.
You mean “their .500 pace” ... from the last four games? They could also keep up their .333 pace from the last three games and the last 12 games, or their .267 pace from the season.
They have 12 games left, only three against bad/tanking teams (ORL, HOU, DET). The other nine are against better teams (UTAx2, GS, NO, MEM, MIA, DEN, BOS, DAL).
Yeah, they could climb to fifth-worst, but it’s not that likely, and even if they did, ah well. Eric Apricot seemed to think sixth worst gave the best expected value of the pick anyway.
Well, that’s not exactly the same as saying a “.500 pace.” I think they’re like 6-8 in the games those two have both been healthy? And while KAT is as awesome as ever, DLo still mostly sucks. Their biggest improvement of late seems to be that Anthony Edwards has evolved from awful (as 19 year old rooks tend to be) to much less awful.
Anyway, I’m not gonna fret too much about whether they end up #30 or #26. I root for them to lose every game cos it’s fun, but ultimately I don’t think it affects the expected value of our pick that much.
They are 6-6 with both KAT and DLo playing this season, if that's not a .500 pace what is it lol.
I agree DLo generally sucks but his skillset theoretically seems a lot better suited for the bench, and that's where Finch has smartly put him.
Wolves have 12 games left. If they go 5-7 or better, I think there's a very real chance they pass the Magic, Pistons, and Thunder, since all three are tanking incredibly hard. Wolves have beaten the Jazz, Pelicans, and Heat already. We don't know if Denver/Boston/Dallas at the end of the season will be resting guys or trying to lose to get a better playoff matchup. And I'm guessing the Magic/Pistons/Rockets will all try to lose to the Wolves.
But hopefully they go 1-11 and it doesn't matter how hard the other teams are tanking.
So when you said, “if they keep up their .500 pace,” you assumed people would know you meant “from a sporadic 12-game sample, using a secret hand-picked selection criteria I haven’t told you about, including the first two games of the season?” Okay. ;-P
Anyway, it’s no biggie. I won’t be shocked if they go 5-7 or so, and end up with the fifth worst record. But I’m not that worried about it, either. Fifth-worst carries a 68.4% chance of the pick conveying, which is actually pretty substantial upgrade over the 59.9% we get if they’re #1-3. We’d end up with a “default pick” of #7-8, which isn’t as great as #5, but still is pretty awesome given that Wiggins is a solid upgrade on DLo. And the chance of plucking the grand prize of the #4 pick only drops from 12% to 10.5% if Minny rises from second to fifth worst.
If you gave me a choice, the #30 seed would still be my top choice (since it seems kinda like a five player draft), but with #30 looking unlikely, I might actually prefer #26 to #28 or #29.
I'd prefer #29 (then #28 then #27) because I want to maximize the probability of the #4/#5 pick for trade purposes, but I understand your view as well.
They're season percentage is irrelevant. Kat and dlo missed a ton of games and are just now playing together. They'd probably be doing even better if beasley didn't get hurt
I mean, I’m aware of their situation. But who gives a crap how much better they’d be doing with Beasley? We’re talking about their likely place in the standings 12 games from now, not grading their front office, lol.
Fwiw, DLo has been a massive negative on the floor for them all season (-9.9 net on-off per 100). And they still have yet to string together two wins in a row since the first two games of the season.
Yeah, they’ve been playing a bit better of late. My point was just that there’s no established “.500 pace” to “keep up.”
Most likely they end up somewhere between 2nd and 5th to last. Anywhere in that range is great for the Ws. A #4-5 pick would obviously be optimal, but even if slips there’s a vanishingly small chance it slips below #8 (if it conveys). And there are a bunch of super-intriguing players likely to be on the board at #8.
In any case, the ping pong ball drawing will be 1000 times more consequential than anything the Wolves do over the next 12 games.
Seems like the 6th seed is very unlikely at this point but I still think we can get to 7 or 8 no problem. We SHOULD be able to win 1 out of 2 to get to a series but games like this and out crunch time execution give me concerns about the play in...
LOL Pistons resting 1/2 of team [against a team they were almost guaranteed to lose to] is pretty laughable. To make it more fair, the Spurs should only suit up their 8 worst players. And the Pistons would still lose.
It sure does seem like the Dubs have gotten the short shrift of numerous games with friendly home whistles. But I do believe they also commit more than their share of dumb fouls too. So it's not just refs.
It also seems like players hit some crazy good shots at just the wrong time in close games: Dame, Luka, Beal hit some huge ones but so did Dejounte Murray, Terry Rozier, and Terrence Ross.
That said, even if they've gotten unlucky with whistles and with bounces, their execution in close games has been abysmal. They have found ways to lose and I don't really know how or why. I hope it's sort of like turnover ratio in football where it's not super predictive going forward.
It would be nice if they were less sloppy with fouls, especially during crunch time. It would be even nicer if the games were called consistently.
But way more important than any of that is for Curry not to get injured by all the illegal abuse he takes all game or by the extreme measures he is forced to take because of that abuse
I fully agree. My post isn't to say he should try to draw more fouls. I'm trying to say he should already be getting lots of free throws for the same calls everyone else in the league, especially those above, are already getting.
Reffing is and will probably always be the thing I hate most about basketball. I feel like it's pretty dialed in baseball, but the NBA is such a different beast: there is arguably a foul occurring on every possession, it's just that most are not called (thank goodness). I'm not sure of a fair way to address it when the refereeing seems imbalanced. I always go back to the idea that you just have to play well enough for it not to matter, but I don't like how a close game has kind of an automatic cloud of randomness because of it. I enjoy watching the Warriors more than the Giants because at their best, they are personifying the absolute beauty of basketball, but when I watch a Giants game, at least I can be reasonably certain that in a close game, they control their own destiny (but don't get me started on the extra innings runner on second thing).
To be fair, I've heard fans of LeBron, Harden, Shaq, Kobe, etc. all complain about a lack of fouls on their favorite player too... seems we are no different. I think we all look at our favorite players a lot and look at things through our biased view. But, of course, Steph definitely does get no whistles cuz he doesn't look for contact and they allow so much more contact off ball ;-)
What about "FTA/drive attempt", Curry takes way more jumpers than the rest... even then, we all know that Kobe & Harden are foul hunting way more so *will* earn more fouls by the nature of their games.
Before the NBA changed how three point fouls were officiated because of the worrying rise in people exploiting those rules, Harden got a lot, like a scary lot, more fouls on jump shots than Curry.
Stats from March in the 2016-2017 season, so a month before the regular season was done (found them in an article):
Harden:
3PT Shots: 647
Fouls called on 3PT Shots: 108
Curry
3PT Shots: 682
Fouls called on 3PT Shots: 22
So for each long range shot, Harden had a 16.7% chance of getting a call, and Curry had a 3.2% chance.
So on the same number of attempts, you would expect Harden to get over 5 times as many free throws per game as Curry when taking jump shots.
Therefore, a higher percentage of Curry's free throws came from driving than Harden's, or they came from technicals and end of game intentional fouls.
My recommendation was to look at FTA/drive, not FTA/3PA. That said, I would expect Harden to get more FTA in all cases because he ALWAYS looks for the foul, sometimes to the detriment of actually making the shot. He's made a career out of figuring out what he needed to do to get the refs to call a foul. He's an outlier, and saying "Curry gets fewer calls than Harden" just makes Curry like every other player in the NBA.
More like "I see nothing, I hear nothing, I say nothing!" {hearkening back to an era when you could joke about Nazis instead of being accused of "cancel culture" for not hiring them]
Lee and Bazemore going down to COVID protocol are serious blows. I hope the Warriors are considering a 10 day contract for someone. Saw the name Glenn Robinson III and he'd make a lot of sense imo given that he knows the system already. But perhaps by the time he quarantined, 7 of the 10 days would be over or something.
If this team is going to play small and fast, they need a deeper rotation than they currently have available.
Baze too? Wow this season sucks. Just in time to wear everyone out for the playoffs.
Anyone else see KD liked a comment about Steph being ass? My like for him has been on the wane as his bitterness for GS, for some unknown reason, has become more apparent. Now this? I'm done with that guy.
Durant is a brilliant basketball player and a great competitor, but he's petty, vain, and self-centered, even among NBA stars. As great a talent as he is, I don't miss him.
I've been over KD for a while. He is Mr. Smooth on the basketball court, but he's a passive aggressive diva off.
Whatever the surrounding content, the content of the tweet was very far from benign and he was probably switching out of a burner because he quickly unliked, but not before he got caught.
https://fadeawayworld.net/2021/04/21/kevin-durant-caught-liking-tweet-dissing-stephen-curry-this-mf-curry-needed-another-mvp-and-3-all-stars-to-get-the-job-done/
Hornets are losing to the Bulls but Brad Wanamaker is actually not having too bad of a game with 11 pts & 5 assists with 8 minutes left in the 4th..
PG 14 3-4 0-0 5-5 0 0 0 5 1 0 2 0 -10 11
ugh
> @anthonyVslater
Sources: Warriors forward Damion Lee is entering the league's health and safety protocols for what's expected to be a 10-14 day absence. Lee has been a huge help lately for an already thin rotation.
wtf
Basketball gods really mean business
But he's vaccinated?! Why 2 weeks?
The virus can still spread it's just so you don't get sick. It's a much smaller chance for spread but there is still a lot of debate as to what the percentage is.
The vaccine isn't 100%, so I guess he was just really unlucky?
Yeah, super rare and hard to study. They looked at vaccinated healthcare workers who were constantly exposed to Covid patients and even that was like looking for a needle in a haystack for positive cases. Maybe this was a false positive?
Detroit and Orlando tanking hard, resting guys who presumably are able to play. Obviously the Thunder are doing it hard too. For whatever reason the Cavs don't seem to be (yet), but there's a real possibility of Minnesota rising to 5th to last if they keep up their ~.500 pace just because all their competition is tanking so hard while they are trying to win.
There's a good chance they decide to tank as well if they get to close to the Mendoza line. Be huge for their franchise to get one of the first 3 picks and odds start dropping out there.
I was thinking about that too, the probability of keeping the pick at 5th worst is notably worse than bottom 3. Perhaps they start reining it in as well.
You mean “their .500 pace” ... from the last four games? They could also keep up their .333 pace from the last three games and the last 12 games, or their .267 pace from the season.
They have 12 games left, only three against bad/tanking teams (ORL, HOU, DET). The other nine are against better teams (UTAx2, GS, NO, MEM, MIA, DEN, BOS, DAL).
Yeah, they could climb to fifth-worst, but it’s not that likely, and even if they did, ah well. Eric Apricot seemed to think sixth worst gave the best expected value of the pick anyway.
No I mean they are like .500 when KAT and DLo are both healthy
Well, that’s not exactly the same as saying a “.500 pace.” I think they’re like 6-8 in the games those two have both been healthy? And while KAT is as awesome as ever, DLo still mostly sucks. Their biggest improvement of late seems to be that Anthony Edwards has evolved from awful (as 19 year old rooks tend to be) to much less awful.
Anyway, I’m not gonna fret too much about whether they end up #30 or #26. I root for them to lose every game cos it’s fun, but ultimately I don’t think it affects the expected value of our pick that much.
They are 6-6 with both KAT and DLo playing this season, if that's not a .500 pace what is it lol.
I agree DLo generally sucks but his skillset theoretically seems a lot better suited for the bench, and that's where Finch has smartly put him.
Wolves have 12 games left. If they go 5-7 or better, I think there's a very real chance they pass the Magic, Pistons, and Thunder, since all three are tanking incredibly hard. Wolves have beaten the Jazz, Pelicans, and Heat already. We don't know if Denver/Boston/Dallas at the end of the season will be resting guys or trying to lose to get a better playoff matchup. And I'm guessing the Magic/Pistons/Rockets will all try to lose to the Wolves.
But hopefully they go 1-11 and it doesn't matter how hard the other teams are tanking.
So when you said, “if they keep up their .500 pace,” you assumed people would know you meant “from a sporadic 12-game sample, using a secret hand-picked selection criteria I haven’t told you about, including the first two games of the season?” Okay. ;-P
Anyway, it’s no biggie. I won’t be shocked if they go 5-7 or so, and end up with the fifth worst record. But I’m not that worried about it, either. Fifth-worst carries a 68.4% chance of the pick conveying, which is actually pretty substantial upgrade over the 59.9% we get if they’re #1-3. We’d end up with a “default pick” of #7-8, which isn’t as great as #5, but still is pretty awesome given that Wiggins is a solid upgrade on DLo. And the chance of plucking the grand prize of the #4 pick only drops from 12% to 10.5% if Minny rises from second to fifth worst.
If you gave me a choice, the #30 seed would still be my top choice (since it seems kinda like a five player draft), but with #30 looking unlikely, I might actually prefer #26 to #28 or #29.
I'd prefer #29 (then #28 then #27) because I want to maximize the probability of the #4/#5 pick for trade purposes, but I understand your view as well.
They're season percentage is irrelevant. Kat and dlo missed a ton of games and are just now playing together. They'd probably be doing even better if beasley didn't get hurt
I mean, I’m aware of their situation. But who gives a crap how much better they’d be doing with Beasley? We’re talking about their likely place in the standings 12 games from now, not grading their front office, lol.
Fwiw, DLo has been a massive negative on the floor for them all season (-9.9 net on-off per 100). And they still have yet to string together two wins in a row since the first two games of the season.
Yeah, they’ve been playing a bit better of late. My point was just that there’s no established “.500 pace” to “keep up.”
Most likely they end up somewhere between 2nd and 5th to last. Anywhere in that range is great for the Ws. A #4-5 pick would obviously be optimal, but even if slips there’s a vanishingly small chance it slips below #8 (if it conveys). And there are a bunch of super-intriguing players likely to be on the board at #8.
In any case, the ping pong ball drawing will be 1000 times more consequential than anything the Wolves do over the next 12 games.
If we're lucky enough for the #4, you for Jonathon Kuminga or Jalen Green? Or?
I saw one recent big board that had Green at #2, above Suggs, so I’ll say Green.
Their*
Seems like ... the Twolves are not wanting to help us very much.
Selfish, they are.
Seems like the 6th seed is very unlikely at this point but I still think we can get to 7 or 8 no problem. We SHOULD be able to win 1 out of 2 to get to a series but games like this and out crunch time execution give me concerns about the play in...
Also, winning game one as 7 or 8 allows for extra rest before playoffs start
Aren't we kind of playing with house money at this point?
Mavs (vs Lakers) and Spurs (vs Pistons) - both on B2B. Here is to hoping that they loose games.
Pistons are resting half their team unfortunately
LOL Pistons resting 1/2 of team [against a team they were almost guaranteed to lose to] is pretty laughable. To make it more fair, the Spurs should only suit up their 8 worst players. And the Pistons would still lose.
It sure does seem like the Dubs have gotten the short shrift of numerous games with friendly home whistles. But I do believe they also commit more than their share of dumb fouls too. So it's not just refs.
It also seems like players hit some crazy good shots at just the wrong time in close games: Dame, Luka, Beal hit some huge ones but so did Dejounte Murray, Terry Rozier, and Terrence Ross.
That said, even if they've gotten unlucky with whistles and with bounces, their execution in close games has been abysmal. They have found ways to lose and I don't really know how or why. I hope it's sort of like turnover ratio in football where it's not super predictive going forward.
It would be nice if they were less sloppy with fouls, especially during crunch time. It would be even nicer if the games were called consistently.
But way more important than any of that is for Curry not to get injured by all the illegal abuse he takes all game or by the extreme measures he is forced to take because of that abuse
James Harden on a rough shooting night:
Shoots a bunch of free throws and gets his stroke back on track by 2nd half
Bradley Beal on a rough shooting night:
Shoots a bunch of free throws and gets his stroke back on track by 2nd half
Giannis on a rough shooting night:
Shoots a bunch of free throws and gets his stroke back on track by 2nd half
Damian Lillard on a rough shooting night:
Shoots a bunch of free throws and gets his stroke back on track by 2nd half
Stephen Curry on a rough shooting night:
Shoots a bunch of free throws *after*the*game* and gets his stroke back on track *for*tomorrow*
I fully agree. My post isn't to say he should try to draw more fouls. I'm trying to say he should already be getting lots of free throws for the same calls everyone else in the league, especially those above, are already getting.
Reffing is and will probably always be the thing I hate most about basketball. I feel like it's pretty dialed in baseball, but the NBA is such a different beast: there is arguably a foul occurring on every possession, it's just that most are not called (thank goodness). I'm not sure of a fair way to address it when the refereeing seems imbalanced. I always go back to the idea that you just have to play well enough for it not to matter, but I don't like how a close game has kind of an automatic cloud of randomness because of it. I enjoy watching the Warriors more than the Giants because at their best, they are personifying the absolute beauty of basketball, but when I watch a Giants game, at least I can be reasonably certain that in a close game, they control their own destiny (but don't get me started on the extra innings runner on second thing).
Ref sees James Harden shot attempt: "The contact I perceived on that shot attempt was consistent with my definition of a foul"
Ref sees Bradley Beal shot attempt: "The contact I perceived on that shot attempt was consistent with my definition of a foul"
Ref sees Giannis shot attempt: "The contact I perceived on that shot attempt was consistent with my definition of a foul"
Ref sees Stephen Curry shot attempt: "What did I just see?"
To be fair, I've heard fans of LeBron, Harden, Shaq, Kobe, etc. all complain about a lack of fouls on their favorite player too... seems we are no different. I think we all look at our favorite players a lot and look at things through our biased view. But, of course, Steph definitely does get no whistles cuz he doesn't look for contact and they allow so much more contact off ball ;-)
Subjectively I'd say yes, there is an *egregious* lack of calls for fouls on Curry.
Objectively:
LeBron: 7.4 FTA
Harden: 9.1 FTA
Shaq: 9.7 FTA
Kobe: 7.4 FTA
Curry: 4.4 FTA
Career, Per 36
What about "FTA/drive attempt", Curry takes way more jumpers than the rest... even then, we all know that Kobe & Harden are foul hunting way more so *will* earn more fouls by the nature of their games.
Ehhhhhhh... so just look at jump shots, then.
Before the NBA changed how three point fouls were officiated because of the worrying rise in people exploiting those rules, Harden got a lot, like a scary lot, more fouls on jump shots than Curry.
Stats from March in the 2016-2017 season, so a month before the regular season was done (found them in an article):
Harden:
3PT Shots: 647
Fouls called on 3PT Shots: 108
Curry
3PT Shots: 682
Fouls called on 3PT Shots: 22
So for each long range shot, Harden had a 16.7% chance of getting a call, and Curry had a 3.2% chance.
So on the same number of attempts, you would expect Harden to get over 5 times as many free throws per game as Curry when taking jump shots.
Therefore, a higher percentage of Curry's free throws came from driving than Harden's, or they came from technicals and end of game intentional fouls.
My recommendation was to look at FTA/drive, not FTA/3PA. That said, I would expect Harden to get more FTA in all cases because he ALWAYS looks for the foul, sometimes to the detriment of actually making the shot. He's made a career out of figuring out what he needed to do to get the refs to call a foul. He's an outlier, and saying "Curry gets fewer calls than Harden" just makes Curry like every other player in the NBA.
More like "I see nothing, I hear nothing, I say nothing!" {hearkening back to an era when you could joke about Nazis instead of being accused of "cancel culture" for not hiring them]
Dropping like flies
That's a LOT!!
Just a flesh wound
Rub some dirt on it and get back out there
Tis but a flesh wound
On the head, they use small stitches. Just a minor cut. ;)
You did not get my Black Knight reference... now you must bring me a shrubbery
Whaaaaa...
Joe has great piece on what happens money accumulated various types of fines. It's a good read.