61 Comments
Apr 12, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Okay, so I went and calculated the percentages by which various people are to blame for the Wiseman injury.

Joe Lacob (for uttering the words "Light Years"): 0.0%

Rick Celebrini (for not being Chelsea Lane): 0.0%

Steve Kerr (for something something floated by some jabroni on GSoM): 0.0%

Trump (just cos): 1.3%

No one: 98.7%

Expand full comment

Basketball gods: 100%

Expand full comment

I mostly agree with you. I do think "Light Years" is worth at least 5% though.

Expand full comment

Ever since the hyperbolic "light years" statement I've been pointing out that they were essentially "luck years". The T-Wolves passed on Curry twice. Thompson was available with the 11th pick (one pick after Jimmer Fredette!) . Curry's ankles were successfully repaired. Draymond Green was still available in the 2nd round. Andrew Bogut got healthy enough to play for 3 years he was with the Warriors, Kerr didn't take the Knicks job, etc. The Warriors did a good job scouting, drafting, and signing veteran players, but they also had a ton of luck and now that has swung the other way.

Expand full comment

Being the beneficiary of other teams' bad decisions isn't exactly luck. It means you're making better decisions than other teams, which actually supports the "light years" comment.

You can get backed into a corner by decisions that are outside your control (like by the other teams ahead of you in the draft). You can also make statistically right decisions with the information you have that just happen to go against you. (Like, if you bet that a 33% thing won't happen, you'll lose ⅓ of the time. Doesn't mean you were wrong to take the higher percentage.)

Other front offices might have caught up by now, but I think the Wiggins trade shows that the Warriors are still light years ahead of the T-Wolves at least. ;)

Expand full comment

I don’t disagree at all, but you can make a similar case for every great sports team ever (or really every success story of any kind). The role of luck in everything is perpetually underrated by humans who like to imagine that we have more control over things than we do.

Expand full comment

Except with the Lakers, who have had stacked teams because all-time players want to go there (Kareem, Shaq, LeBron, I am sure there are more). They stack the deck, like the Yankees. Even then, they have gaps of mediocrity or downright terribleness.

Expand full comment
author

Definitely. Particularly, Americans like to think sports outcomes specifically reveal character, destiny and merit, and there is no role for randomness there.

Which is one reason why I like to call any game that’s within a possession a random ending.

Expand full comment
Apr 12, 2021Liked by punk basketball

What a bummer. Wiseman was in the midst of putting together second consistently good game in a row and then got unlucky on landing after what should have been called a foul, and now he'll miss the rest of his chance to really work on that game against NBA competition? The basketball gods can be so cruel!

Expand full comment

This is an interesting article I read a while ago, which the Wiseman injury reminded me of.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27125793/these-kids-ticking-bombs-threat-youth-basketball%3fplatform=amp

For those that don’t want to read it (it’s long form), it basically suggests that AAU with its very hefty schedules for top youth players, and early specialization in basketball puts young elite players at a high risk of injury.

Hard for me to say if that’s true or not, but two out of the top three draft picks went down this year.

I have a feeling that it more has to do with the sheer explosiveness of the game, leaving lots of opportunity for some pretty big falls, or at least awkward landings causing lower leg injuries.

In any event sucks that out coveted draft pick only gets half a season this year, and he sucked for most of it.

Expand full comment

These two injuries have nothing to do with it. A fractured wrist and a mcl tear on a contact dunk? That's going to happen whether they played more in their youth or not

Expand full comment

In fairness, he debunked the theory himself:

"I have a feeling that it more has to do with the sheer explosiveness of the game, leaving lots of opportunity for some pretty big falls, or at least awkward landings causing lower leg injuries."

I definitely buy that.

Expand full comment

He did but then also left it open with the "hard to say if it's true or not". Was more responding to the idea than him specifically.

Expand full comment

*meniscus

Expand full comment

oops i been thinking mcl in my head every time lol

Expand full comment

Shit if we get spellman we might do some damage in that first round of the playoffs, let's not forget wiseman was a major negative for us this year.

A stretch five to run pick n pops with curry or poole, or even to help spacing with green on the court would be great

Expand full comment

We could always bring DJ back. Might be a bit awkward though.

Expand full comment

On a 10 day with SAC apparently? But I’m sure DJ will look past the awkwardness to through down some Curry lobs. He and Omari would be alright

Expand full comment

Thanks. I hadn't seen where he was since he did a 10 day in LA. I sure would!!

Expand full comment

I see the Captain is thinking along the same lines.

Expand full comment

At very least, it seems like JW isn't going to be out any very extensive time and miss the off season programs. I just hope he really works on strengthening his core and limbs, and loses this injury prone tag he has slapped on him currently. I also hope he calms down on going for the poster dunks as much. maybe im a little off base with that hope, because he does need to stay aggressive... but when you're getting blocked by a f'n PG, that should be your sign to try a little more tact instead of the highlight reel.

Expand full comment

We all know dang well Looney will go down for a few games soon. I'd have Damion Jones on standby soon in case that happens. At this point we just need a big body out there. Is there any way to recreate Wiseman? MechaWise?

Expand full comment

I've been working all day & evening getting ready to restock my antique booths tomorrow. Finally stopped in here hoping for a positive update on Wiseman. That I did not get. This sucks. And I am hoping it is not a major injury that JW will have to deal with. Poor kid has had a rough year and seemed to finally be putting together some good games. DAMN!! I'm for giving Omari another shot. I don't know any other bigs that are available except the ones that have been playing in the G-league. Better to have a bigger guy banging with bigs than forcing Draymond & JTA to handle more IMO.

Expand full comment
Apr 12, 2021Liked by punk basketball

And that, children, is why one does not tell the Basketball Gods that one is Light Years Ahead. The Basketball Gods frown on that. Or worse, they laugh.

Expand full comment
author

What a crazy rookie year for this kid!

So even best case, he's basically done for the year - and I strongly doubt the team pushes their prized 20 year old center to rush back.

I actually like the rest of the roster as far as winning games without Wiseman, so the silver lining is that the Warriors are probably more likely to make the play in tourney (assuming Dray and Loon can hold up to playing the 5 so much. Remember this is still a super compressed schedule, so there's a lot of court time to fill, and not a lot of rest.

One other factor: EP is due for reevaluation in about a week. So there could be internal help coming.

Expand full comment
Apr 12, 2021Liked by punk basketball

At a certain point it becomes ridiculous. Whatever it is that Rick Celebrini and the training staff are doing, it's not working.

Expand full comment
Apr 12, 2021Liked by punk basketball

To me, it makes absolutely no logical sense to pin these freak injuries on the training staff but count me in on replacing them... something about this whole situation is glitching the damn matrix... and not in our favor...

Expand full comment

Really? Did you see the way he landed? Have you looked at injuries around the league? Sorry. I hate this sort of take. I come here to avoid the arbitrary assignment of guilt and subsequent hang wringing desire to cancel that dominates the wider culture. I seriously doubt this is anybody's fault. Embiid, Porzingis, Durant, Cauley Stein,...and historically: Walton, Sampson, Bowie, Oden... many many more. Damn hard to be 7 feet. Lot of weight. But since so many of you want to fire Kerr/Meyers I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

Expand full comment
author

Its tongue in cheek. Chill.

Expand full comment

There are many such requests on here. I don't think they are 'tongue in cheek' Even your fellow 'authors' have commented on it....

Expand full comment

Try not to confuse this site with another site that constantly beats the drum for Kerr, Myres and Greens head to be put on a platter.

Expand full comment
author

Yeah because it's a chat board that isn't always 100% serious. You are free to disagree but please don't attempt to control what people are or aren't allowed to talk about.

The site authors will moderate content where necessary but we try real hard to make this a place where ideas are free to fly (even silly ones, or bad takes) in all their weird glory

Expand full comment

Wow. Adios!

Expand full comment

“Please don’t attempt to control what people are or aren’t allowed to talk a point” - I must be missing something, nobody said anything of the sort?

Expand full comment
Apr 12, 2021Liked by punk basketball

🤷‍♂️ if me admitting "it make absolutely no sense" and blaming it on a "glitch in the matrix" aren't obvious signs of me being silly, I don't know what to say

Expand full comment

Well I replied in the thread. Should have replied to poster you replied to.

Expand full comment
Apr 12, 2021Liked by punk basketball

When was the last time a Warrior was on the early end of a return from injury?

Expand full comment
Apr 12, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Steph

Expand full comment
Apr 12, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I'm not 7' tall, but my meniscus tear didn't stop me from playing basketball. Then again, it might be a lot more messed up than mine was. Eventually had to fix it. Best guy on meniscus in the Bay Area is Kevin Stone (Stone Clinic). Bring in Kevin Garnett this summer for tutelage. Get a Feng Shui expert to rectify the Chase Center. Get a new trainer - this one is unlucky.

Other than that, enjoy the glow that is Steph Curry playing basketball.

Expand full comment

I guess by “long time”, you mean about a month? For me, in the context of a meniscus tear, the range of the seemingly minimum 4-6 weeks is actually a short time, relatively speaking, whereas “long time” for me would mean several months, eg, as long as Jaren Jackson’s ordeal (injured last August and still out).

But I’m a reporter at heart, so I’m a stickler about using more objective words.

Moving on, here are the facts: 4 weeks would bring you to May 9 with four regular season games to go, the 72nd game to be played May 16. The play-in games are May 18-21, first round of seven-game series start May 22.

So if Wiseman’s meniscus can heal in 4 weeks, then you still have a chance of him playing the play-in. As such, I believe Kerr and Myers will wait to see what the prognosis is, then make their roster decision. (On the extreme end, I wouldn’t rule out tanking, whatever that really means without drawing the ire of Adam Silver, should Wiseman have a JJJ-like prognosis.)

Even 6 weeks means he misses the remainder of the season, even though we would all breathe a sigh of relief, again when compared to JJJ. This is why Shams reported that they “fear” Wiseman will miss the remainder of the season. It’s just simple math and probability for the source of that tweet, whomever fed Shams that quote. The low end of this injury is “4-6 weeks”, but the higher end of *that* (6 weeks) means it’s literally season-ending.

But until we hear how severe the injury is, “there’s still a chance” (only if it’s 4 weeks).

Expand full comment

Ok so now that the Warriors have shown some competitive spirit and played near their ceiling without Wiseman against a really tough, fringe-elite squad, I have to adjust my thinking on “tanking” or “extreme load management” as it were. Can’t upset the basketball gods and gotta keep building the culture, so you pretty much just have to keep competing. Still depends on the prognosis as to whether you get a stop-gap closest-approximation type (Boogie?) if Wiseman can come back for the play-in/playoffs, or just get a body as a backup “traditional” center (Spellman/DJ?) in case something happens to one of the small ball 5s (ie Looney). Those are my thoughts so far on Day 2-3.

Expand full comment

If Spellman would go for a couple of 10 day contract, and it's hard to see why he wouldn't, that seems like a better choice then playing with under sized centers. The double whammy is that with Paschall ailing having JTA and Green play center leaves the Warriors short for minutes at PF. Personally I like O-O-B option 2 - it's the beginning of Smailagic era.

Expand full comment

Spellman is 6'8" albeit 245 lbs. so he's an undersized center too, at least with respect to height. He was a PF at Atlanta before we got him. If we're going to sign a center, which I agree we should, let's at least try to sign a CENTER.

Expand full comment

Green and JTA are both 6'6" and JTA is barely over 200lbs. At this point the Warriors aren't looking at good options, they are looking at least bad options.

Expand full comment

Yeah it's a physical grind for those guys to take on centers day in and day out which could increase risk of injury to them. I like the thought of a larger body taking some of those minutes especially if we go tank mode.

Expand full comment

As I wrote above, I think it all depends on how long Wiseman is going to be out for.

If he’s only out for 4 weeks and could conceivable play in the playoffs, I would think Boogie Cousins (assuming he’s available after his LAC 10-day is up), would be the closest approximation to Wiseman and a stop-gap solution to bridge the team to a potential return of James.

If Wiseman is out for the season, my initial thoughts are that he was really the core reason for competing like mad this season as a non-contender, so then what’s it all for at that point? Of course I also don’t want Looney playing a ton of 5, so yeah a guy like Omari could help out for that.

Just initial thoughts for now.

Expand full comment

Assuming James needs 4 weeks to heal, which sounds like a best case (as against the most likely) scenario, he'd presumably need additional time to get back in playing shape. We'd want to be sure he is really healed and in shape. Of course we might not even be in the playoff hunt at that point but either way, Boogie sounds like a more worthwhile experiment than Spellman. It's not that I dislike Spellman but he hasn't proven much, and he basically is about the same size as Paschall, so if Eric is healthy, I'd rather give him those minutes.

Expand full comment
Apr 12, 2021Liked by punk basketball

The issue with Cousins is that he was so bad for the Rockets (the Rockets!) that they waived him. He has been better for the Clips at least with a sample size of 13 minutes, but that might just be good enough for him to get a 2nd 10 day contract. I guess the advantage of signing with the Warriors instead is that he would get starter minutes.

Expand full comment

From what I recall, Cousins wanted more minutes than he was getting with the Rockets. And I believe he got paid / requested to be released so that he could find a team that would play him. That hasn't worked out so well for him - Lakers are the 1st nibble he's had.

Expand full comment

Whatever option we choose, Out-of-the-box 3 needs to be considered in addition to it...

Expand full comment

I’m not sure there are the roster spots available for a wing, esp after signing a 5 to replace Wiseman. You’re going to start re-architecting the team for 2021-22 anyways by the end of May.

Expand full comment

Oh lol.. I was referring to Apricot's list of options... "Out-of-the-box 3" being "hire an exorcist" for the bad luck/curse... not so much an "out-of-the-box 3" as in a wing player

Expand full comment

I live in the high desert. We have white sage. I can ship a box of it for a burning cleanse.

Expand full comment

Oh lol my bad 🤦🏻‍♂️ yeah, sign the exorcist to a four-year max deal!!!!! Someone on our Discord server was saying we still need one of the players to do the Kyrie sage thing at Chase!

Expand full comment

🌿 I'm down to try the Kyrie Sage thing at this point ...🌿

Expand full comment

Maybe we can offer Kyrie Sage the 4 year deal. (Not Kyrie, just his sage). Do plants count against the luxury tax?

Expand full comment

"Do plants count against the luxury tax?" I think we're safe from that with sage. If the plant is rooted to the hardwood and is named Todd Fuller, that might cost us.

Expand full comment