Crazy question for you cap nerds out there -- my understanding is that taxpaying teams can acquire a player for up to 125% of the outgoing salary in a trade -- could we theoretically take Fournier with the TPE, and then turn around and immediately deal him back 1-for-1 for Aaron Gordon? Other mechanics (like making it desirable for the magic) aside, would that be allowed?
Legally you have to wait 60 days I think if you want to aggregate it (i.e. add Fournier + Poole), but apart from that there's no hard rule against it if you just take a player for TPE to retrade, so long as you can reasonably show your only intention to trade for the player was just to flip them. Obviously plenty of teams do just trade to flip, and it's not that tightly enforced, e.g. back when John Hollinger was in Grizzlies FO, he was know for having done a pretty quick flip/bridge trade (I think within a week) of TPE acquired players a couple of times. Not sure why the hell the Magic would do the thing you proposed though.
I gave the Harden trade a few seconds of serious thought and it's sooooo bad.
Ok, so, the good: Klay is coming off injury and hasn't played basketball in over a year. Harden is coming off another season of insane scoring numbers and playoff disappointment. Both are tall enough to share the court with Curry, and high-volume 3-point shooters. Harden has a better handle, better passing, and a league-breaking FT rate. Klay has a reputation for better defense but advanced stats mostly hate him. Klay is notoriously tough, and had fantastic stamina before his injury. So, to a large extent any such trade is going to be a referendum on how well his overall condition has recovered since tearing his ACL.
The Rockets would get a fuckton of positive assets including Rookie of the Year contender E. Paschall and some very good draft picks. I imagine most execs in Houston would happily do this trade as it reloads them for the future while still having a likely All-NBA star guard on the roster.
The Warriors would be all in on winning now by upgrading their legendary backcourt with... a much lower-percentage shooter who needs the ball in his hands and slows their high-pace offense to a literal standstill. They'd be more exposed on defense, get less value out of their super-max franchise player's assists, and have a culture clash and fan outcry even disregarding the traded assets. But they would have a more reliable way of earning free throws, except sometimes in the postseason when it matters most.
Uhhh... Yeah, save the Curry+Harden lineups for the All-Star game. Maybe the Tokyo Olympics, if those actually happen in 2021. I just spent how much time on this? (Better than fretting about the election, I suppose.)
The trade is trash, but on another point. We’ve seen Steph and Harden on the same team, Team USA before Steph’s MVP 1.0. And Steph was forced to play weakside as Harden and Kyrie dribbled the air out of the ball. Steph was passive and so-so, as you might expect if you never expect to get the ball.
Well the Harden trade idea is clearly flame bait, so I think we can dismiss that. The Miles Bridges trade is at least plausible as he is young and not making much money so can easily be had with the TPE, and there isn't going to be much difference between the 2nd and 3rd pick. The problem is that Bridges isn't very good, at least not right now.
I agree we shouldn't be in such a hurry to trade Wiggins... But what about Wiggins for Simmons, straight up. There is a popular narrative that Simmons and Embid don't work together because it reduces spacing around the post. While the Warriors certainly love spacing, that may be less of an issue for us.
I think Simmons is overrated. I was impressed with him to begin with but have altered my view since then. And he doesn't seem to get any better at the things he really needs to improve i - and this will be his 4th or 5th season. I don't see that he is any better fit with the Warriors than Wiggins is. Both have their issues - and I think Wiggins is a better fit with the Dubs.
Simmons isn't the shooter we want but his defense is consistently excellent. He is a great passer. Instead of thinking of Simmons as a very tall point guard, what if you imagine him as a 6'10", 240 center who can defend 1-5?
How about a 6'10" SF? In general, Simmons is a hard read. Underachiever like Wiggins and with a team that doesn't play like the Warriors do. I'm inclined to want him more than Wiggins. With Wiggins, we've seen the best that he can do. Not so, with Simmons. More upside, I believe. He can shoot but needs to be pushed. Like Iguodala, defensive and pass minded to a high degree. Rare.
Would Philly do that trade? The Warriors would have to showcase Wiggins in the James Worthy role for a while to get off the negative trade value idea. It only took Chris Paul one season to get off the negative asset list, so there is hope!
I had an idea to spend more of your time in case you have too much on your hands:
I was reminiscing fondly on your awesome draft series that gave us Haliburton as the Fan tourney winner, and you later framed Wiseman historically for us all. What if you combined the two, and took the stats for all the guards you included in the draft tournament, added a few historical figures, and had the anonymous who would you draft series: little man edition? If the current guards stats are already in the tournament profiles that work is already half done right?
Appreciate the idea! Let me think about it. Probably if I have the energy, I’m going to do Beat the Draft for Deni Avdija types and then LaMelo Ball types...
I started one profile, but it’s a bit slanted: 6’3” 175lb one and done point guard who cuts off passing lanes on D, cuts off ball on O, has crazy touch on his dribble & passing skills & shoots 60%+ at the rim, 89% from the line, and 40%+ from 3 while taking his team from the bottom of a power conference to fighting for the top spot in his one year at college.
If the Warriors are all in on another Star, cost be damned, their path to another star probably lies in drafting the best player available at #2 and showcasing them. Use the TPE on an expiring as close to that 17m as possible. Some team will likely be selling at the trade deadline and the Warriors can package their rookie stud $10m + $17m expiring plus picks for up to a $33m salary. Add one more contract and you get to a veteran max.
However, during times of distress, the bold and well positioned can make large gains by feeding on the weak. There are definitely going to be sellers based on economics this year. Who will have the power to compete with Balmer on the buyer’s side to shape the NBA over the next 5 years?
Harden? No. Klay is going SuperNova in the upcoming season. He picked up dribbling skills in his year off. Plus, he's got a better personality and dog than Harden.
Also, stop trading Wiggins. He's going to do great in the Warriors' system. And we don't need Wiseman. Pick up Boogie Cousins. His injuries are behind him, he's lost weight and moves better than ever. Trade down, save the money you are required to spend on a #2, and get someone cheaper and with a more distinguished track record. But not short. Edwards, no. Someone quick and lithe who can play defense, block shots and doesn't need the ball in their hands all the time.
Wow, these are all just horribly one sided, except for the Miles Bridges trade which only works if he doesn't suck and the W's don't like anyone at #2 that they can't get at #3.
Why would Detroit do that trade at all? Give up a #1 in a loaded 2021 draft just to move up a few spots?
I thought the Miles Bridges trade wasn't too bad, then I found out who Miles Bridges was (bad defense, wrong sized forward, not sure what he brings that we don't already have in Wiggins, Paschall, and Draymond, and what's the point except for trying to see if you can turn a young player around. But maybe if there's nobody we like at #2 that won't also be there at #3 and his contract isn't too bad...But then why would Charlotte pay that unless they thought he was unsalvageable? This guy is just seems like he's hiding a big red flag, so no.)
The sixer trade? Call Horford/Wiggins a wash and you're giving up Simmons for a #2 in this weak draft? Yeah Philly's not doing that.
I was on board with Harden for Klay, Paschall, and the #2 and next year's #1. But then you threw in D. Lee and I started to have doubts. Maybe if we kept D. Lee and instead we threw in Curry I'd be on board. Really, I just learned to block fansided from all my browsers. You should too.
I’m fully on board with the Detroit trade. That trade is all about Detroit’s vision of themselves next year. They only do that if they think they are a playoff team in the east.
The Miles and 3 would be amazing, but why would Charlotte do that? Maybe the W’s could trade down again from 3 and keep adding talent!
I would rather see the Warriors use the exception on a player Morey wants, and add that to the #2 pick salary and the 2021 Min pick to do a deal for Simmons mid season. The fast break scoring Potential from a Green, Simmons, Wiggins, Klay, Curry lineup would be so freaking cool.
The more info we are presented with, the more It appears this draft isn’t bad. The consensus top 3 picks are vastly inferior, but the depth in this draft is really good and it’s hurting from the lack of an NCAA tournament to boost the hype. It might actually be wise to chase Mid first and 2nd rd picks in this draft because of the devaluation of them. Does Boston have 3 first rd picks and Philly have 6 2nd rounders this draft? I wonder if Boston would bite on trading all 3 picks for next year’s Minn pick.
Charlotte would do that trade if they really want Wiseman. Otherwise, the Warriors could take Wiseman themselves or trade #2 to another team that would take them.
you’re missing something. You are not actually required to keep the TPE player for the length of their contract. From what I can tell it’s likely to be the 60 day restriction which would allow for the trade outlined above.
Right, I am aware of that. You just have to hold the player long enough that it's clearly a separate transaction. So yeah, if you could make that second deal a bit later, it would work. I still think have concerns about that deal. If Doc and Morey are to be believed, PHIL is going to try to keep Embiid and Simmons together and find a way to make it work. Of course if things are not working by the trade deadline, all bets could be off. I also would be concerned about Simmons and Green coexisting on the court. The defense would be great, the passing too. But defenses can sag off of Dray at the perimeter nowadays. To have two starters that the defense can give space at the perimeter does not seem like the best idea. Don't get me wrong, I think highly of Simmons.
Also who is the center? Draymond can do that for short stretches when it's really needed but he takes a beating. Going that small is best done situationally at key times, not as a main option.
In a normal season you could absolutely use any players signed in the offseason in a pre deadline trade. This year could be a bit more interesting, but hopefully that part will be kept intact.
One thing I will say for Fansided: Everything they write about the Warriors is consistently clueless and ignorant. There is something to be said for consistency. But the Harden deal is clueless even for them. I'm being nice.
On the pick trade with Detroit, it’s dependent what their draft board looks like. If they have 7 guys with whom they’d be just as happy as anyone they could take at #2, then go for it.
Let's say Detroit does stink next year (not hard to imagine), and they end up with a top 3 pick. They don't have to be one of the three worst teams to do that. What do we get instead of that protected pick?
Right. In a flat draft like this you make that move because you’re not moving down a tier in talent by going from 2 to 7, and you get what’s likely a 2nd lottery pick in a stacked draft next year.
It’d be such a huge win to walk out with Tyrese Haliburton (for example) with two lottery picks for next year.
That's a fascinating idea, but I don't think I'm on board. It gets us a 7-footer without sacrificing much in the draft, but Zeller seems pretty overpaid and that could affect who else we could sign. I'm not sure he's much of a benefit for us.
I did some digging and it looks like Zeller's contract is a negative asset, so if anything, we should look to take some extras (like 2nd-round picks) as a favor for getting him off Charlotte's books.
Based on FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR ratings for the 2020 season (min 1000 min played), Zeller's slightly negative on offense and distinctly negative on defense—3rd-worst defensive center in the league after rookie Jaxson Hayes and old man Kevin Love. By comparison, our old friend Willey Cauley-Stein is the 3rd-best defensive center in the league but the worst offensive center by a mile, which jives with my memories of him constantly whiffing easy layups and killing possessions with ill-fated fadeaways. (Aside: I don't watch Dallas games, but if WCS keeps doing that move, I'm going to start calling it the Derp Nowitzki.) Overall, among 54 players with Center listed as one of their positions, Zeller ranks as #46. The one thing he has going for him is that his numbers are as decent as they are playing so many minutes, but I think that's also a factor of Charlotte not having any better options at center. (Bismack Biyombo and P.J. Washington are not exactly great alternatives.)
There are lots of worse centers in the league and worse contracts, but it also seems plenty possible to pick up a player on the vet minimum who'll be about as good, so there's no gain in trading down to acquire him. If trading down one slot means we miss Wiseman (because Charlotte takes him, which seems likely in this scenario) then I think it's a bad trade because I think Wiseman has about 50/50 odds of being better than Zeller *this season*.
lol... that Harden trade... how about a counter offer?
Warriors get: R. Covington
Houston gets: free consultation from Space-X on how to improve your rockets
Crazy question for you cap nerds out there -- my understanding is that taxpaying teams can acquire a player for up to 125% of the outgoing salary in a trade -- could we theoretically take Fournier with the TPE, and then turn around and immediately deal him back 1-for-1 for Aaron Gordon? Other mechanics (like making it desirable for the magic) aside, would that be allowed?
Legally you have to wait 60 days I think if you want to aggregate it (i.e. add Fournier + Poole), but apart from that there's no hard rule against it if you just take a player for TPE to retrade, so long as you can reasonably show your only intention to trade for the player was just to flip them. Obviously plenty of teams do just trade to flip, and it's not that tightly enforced, e.g. back when John Hollinger was in Grizzlies FO, he was know for having done a pretty quick flip/bridge trade (I think within a week) of TPE acquired players a couple of times. Not sure why the hell the Magic would do the thing you proposed though.
*so long as you can reasonably show your only intention to trade for the player was NOT just to flip them. been a long week....
That is really interesting. I would think the answer is no, as it’s against the spirit of the rules, but I can’t quickly point to a rule preventing it
I gave the Harden trade a few seconds of serious thought and it's sooooo bad.
Ok, so, the good: Klay is coming off injury and hasn't played basketball in over a year. Harden is coming off another season of insane scoring numbers and playoff disappointment. Both are tall enough to share the court with Curry, and high-volume 3-point shooters. Harden has a better handle, better passing, and a league-breaking FT rate. Klay has a reputation for better defense but advanced stats mostly hate him. Klay is notoriously tough, and had fantastic stamina before his injury. So, to a large extent any such trade is going to be a referendum on how well his overall condition has recovered since tearing his ACL.
The Rockets would get a fuckton of positive assets including Rookie of the Year contender E. Paschall and some very good draft picks. I imagine most execs in Houston would happily do this trade as it reloads them for the future while still having a likely All-NBA star guard on the roster.
The Warriors would be all in on winning now by upgrading their legendary backcourt with... a much lower-percentage shooter who needs the ball in his hands and slows their high-pace offense to a literal standstill. They'd be more exposed on defense, get less value out of their super-max franchise player's assists, and have a culture clash and fan outcry even disregarding the traded assets. But they would have a more reliable way of earning free throws, except sometimes in the postseason when it matters most.
Uhhh... Yeah, save the Curry+Harden lineups for the All-Star game. Maybe the Tokyo Olympics, if those actually happen in 2021. I just spent how much time on this? (Better than fretting about the election, I suppose.)
The trade is trash, but on another point. We’ve seen Steph and Harden on the same team, Team USA before Steph’s MVP 1.0. And Steph was forced to play weakside as Harden and Kyrie dribbled the air out of the ball. Steph was passive and so-so, as you might expect if you never expect to get the ball.
And Harden does the same thing at All-Star games. He’s useless with other stars.
Well the Harden trade idea is clearly flame bait, so I think we can dismiss that. The Miles Bridges trade is at least plausible as he is young and not making much money so can easily be had with the TPE, and there isn't going to be much difference between the 2nd and 3rd pick. The problem is that Bridges isn't very good, at least not right now.
I agree we shouldn't be in such a hurry to trade Wiggins... But what about Wiggins for Simmons, straight up. There is a popular narrative that Simmons and Embid don't work together because it reduces spacing around the post. While the Warriors certainly love spacing, that may be less of an issue for us.
I think Simmons is overrated. I was impressed with him to begin with but have altered my view since then. And he doesn't seem to get any better at the things he really needs to improve i - and this will be his 4th or 5th season. I don't see that he is any better fit with the Warriors than Wiggins is. Both have their issues - and I think Wiggins is a better fit with the Dubs.
Simmons isn't the shooter we want but his defense is consistently excellent. He is a great passer. Instead of thinking of Simmons as a very tall point guard, what if you imagine him as a 6'10", 240 center who can defend 1-5?
How about a 6'10" SF? In general, Simmons is a hard read. Underachiever like Wiggins and with a team that doesn't play like the Warriors do. I'm inclined to want him more than Wiggins. With Wiggins, we've seen the best that he can do. Not so, with Simmons. More upside, I believe. He can shoot but needs to be pushed. Like Iguodala, defensive and pass minded to a high degree. Rare.
I would be doubtful that he could guard the 5.
why? he has the size and finished #4 in the DOP for 2020.
But with Embiid on the team, when has he had to guard a center?
Would Philly do that trade? The Warriors would have to showcase Wiggins in the James Worthy role for a while to get off the negative trade value idea. It only took Chris Paul one season to get off the negative asset list, so there is hope!
They would do it if Doc and Morey are convinced that they need to replace Simmons with a shooter.
Dear Mr. Apricot,
I had an idea to spend more of your time in case you have too much on your hands:
I was reminiscing fondly on your awesome draft series that gave us Haliburton as the Fan tourney winner, and you later framed Wiseman historically for us all. What if you combined the two, and took the stats for all the guards you included in the draft tournament, added a few historical figures, and had the anonymous who would you draft series: little man edition? If the current guards stats are already in the tournament profiles that work is already half done right?
Appreciate the idea! Let me think about it. Probably if I have the energy, I’m going to do Beat the Draft for Deni Avdija types and then LaMelo Ball types...
Isn’t that basically the same type? Good passing and vision. Length that doesn’t move on D and can’t shoot?
I’d compare Deni to players who could play 4, LaMelo to PG types
I started one profile, but it’s a bit slanted: 6’3” 175lb one and done point guard who cuts off passing lanes on D, cuts off ball on O, has crazy touch on his dribble & passing skills & shoots 60%+ at the rim, 89% from the line, and 40%+ from 3 while taking his team from the bottom of a power conference to fighting for the top spot in his one year at college.
obvious pass... i'd rather take johnny flynn and ricky rubio
6'3"? Pass on that guy. Jump shooting teams don't win championships.
If the Warriors are all in on another Star, cost be damned, their path to another star probably lies in drafting the best player available at #2 and showcasing them. Use the TPE on an expiring as close to that 17m as possible. Some team will likely be selling at the trade deadline and the Warriors can package their rookie stud $10m + $17m expiring plus picks for up to a $33m salary. Add one more contract and you get to a veteran max.
I don't believe [unless things change] that the Dubs will have very long to use that TPE.
Amen to that. They had better already have some possibilities lined up for the 24hr period they’ll be allowed to use it.
I don’t think the Warriors are in a “cost be damned” frame of mind. Too many economic uncertainties to balloon the payroll even more.
However, during times of distress, the bold and well positioned can make large gains by feeding on the weak. There are definitely going to be sellers based on economics this year. Who will have the power to compete with Balmer on the buyer’s side to shape the NBA over the next 5 years?
Professional sports team owners don’t typically like getting cash calls (or having to dip into a line of credit) to keep make payroll.
Sadly true 😢
Harden? No. Klay is going SuperNova in the upcoming season. He picked up dribbling skills in his year off. Plus, he's got a better personality and dog than Harden.
Also, stop trading Wiggins. He's going to do great in the Warriors' system. And we don't need Wiseman. Pick up Boogie Cousins. His injuries are behind him, he's lost weight and moves better than ever. Trade down, save the money you are required to spend on a #2, and get someone cheaper and with a more distinguished track record. But not short. Edwards, no. Someone quick and lithe who can play defense, block shots and doesn't need the ball in their hands all the time.
Boogie? Sure, why not? Great guy. I mean, who amongst us hasn’t threatened to put a bullet in the head of the mother of our child?
Oh snap!
Wow, these are all just horribly one sided, except for the Miles Bridges trade which only works if he doesn't suck and the W's don't like anyone at #2 that they can't get at #3.
Why would Detroit do that trade at all? Give up a #1 in a loaded 2021 draft just to move up a few spots?
I thought the Miles Bridges trade wasn't too bad, then I found out who Miles Bridges was (bad defense, wrong sized forward, not sure what he brings that we don't already have in Wiggins, Paschall, and Draymond, and what's the point except for trying to see if you can turn a young player around. But maybe if there's nobody we like at #2 that won't also be there at #3 and his contract isn't too bad...But then why would Charlotte pay that unless they thought he was unsalvageable? This guy is just seems like he's hiding a big red flag, so no.)
The sixer trade? Call Horford/Wiggins a wash and you're giving up Simmons for a #2 in this weak draft? Yeah Philly's not doing that.
I was on board with Harden for Klay, Paschall, and the #2 and next year's #1. But then you threw in D. Lee and I started to have doubts. Maybe if we kept D. Lee and instead we threw in Curry I'd be on board. Really, I just learned to block fansided from all my browsers. You should too.
I’m fully on board with the Detroit trade. That trade is all about Detroit’s vision of themselves next year. They only do that if they think they are a playoff team in the east.
The Miles and 3 would be amazing, but why would Charlotte do that? Maybe the W’s could trade down again from 3 and keep adding talent!
I would rather see the Warriors use the exception on a player Morey wants, and add that to the #2 pick salary and the 2021 Min pick to do a deal for Simmons mid season. The fast break scoring Potential from a Green, Simmons, Wiggins, Klay, Curry lineup would be so freaking cool.
The more info we are presented with, the more It appears this draft isn’t bad. The consensus top 3 picks are vastly inferior, but the depth in this draft is really good and it’s hurting from the lack of an NCAA tournament to boost the hype. It might actually be wise to chase Mid first and 2nd rd picks in this draft because of the devaluation of them. Does Boston have 3 first rd picks and Philly have 6 2nd rounders this draft? I wonder if Boston would bite on trading all 3 picks for next year’s Minn pick.
Charlotte would do that trade if they really want Wiseman. Otherwise, the Warriors could take Wiseman themselves or trade #2 to another team that would take them.
I know this has been said before but you cannot use the TPE and then flip the player you get.
you’re missing something. You are not actually required to keep the TPE player for the length of their contract. From what I can tell it’s likely to be the 60 day restriction which would allow for the trade outlined above.
Right, I am aware of that. You just have to hold the player long enough that it's clearly a separate transaction. So yeah, if you could make that second deal a bit later, it would work. I still think have concerns about that deal. If Doc and Morey are to be believed, PHIL is going to try to keep Embiid and Simmons together and find a way to make it work. Of course if things are not working by the trade deadline, all bets could be off. I also would be concerned about Simmons and Green coexisting on the court. The defense would be great, the passing too. But defenses can sag off of Dray at the perimeter nowadays. To have two starters that the defense can give space at the perimeter does not seem like the best idea. Don't get me wrong, I think highly of Simmons.
Also who is the center? Draymond can do that for short stretches when it's really needed but he takes a beating. Going that small is best done situationally at key times, not as a main option.
In a normal season you could absolutely use any players signed in the offseason in a pre deadline trade. This year could be a bit more interesting, but hopefully that part will be kept intact.
One thing I will say for Fansided: Everything they write about the Warriors is consistently clueless and ignorant. There is something to be said for consistency. But the Harden deal is clueless even for them. I'm being nice.
Going for clicks at the cost of any shred of credibility. Actually for them that’s no cost at all.
The Harden trade sucks. The Simmons, horford trade is a pipe dream.
I love the Miles and #3 trade. That’s a no brainer.
Detroit and a protected 2021 is good too. They’ll stink next year too.
On the pick trade with Detroit, it’s dependent what their draft board looks like. If they have 7 guys with whom they’d be just as happy as anyone they could take at #2, then go for it.
Let's say Detroit does stink next year (not hard to imagine), and they end up with a top 3 pick. They don't have to be one of the three worst teams to do that. What do we get instead of that protected pick?
It generally gets pushed back a year with reduced protections over time.
Right. In a flat draft like this you make that move because you’re not moving down a tier in talent by going from 2 to 7, and you get what’s likely a 2nd lottery pick in a stacked draft next year.
It’d be such a huge win to walk out with Tyrese Haliburton (for example) with two lottery picks for next year.
And yeah, fuck that Harden trade.
That's a fascinating idea, but I don't think I'm on board. It gets us a 7-footer without sacrificing much in the draft, but Zeller seems pretty overpaid and that could affect who else we could sign. I'm not sure he's much of a benefit for us.
I did some digging and it looks like Zeller's contract is a negative asset, so if anything, we should look to take some extras (like 2nd-round picks) as a favor for getting him off Charlotte's books.
Based on FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR ratings for the 2020 season (min 1000 min played), Zeller's slightly negative on offense and distinctly negative on defense—3rd-worst defensive center in the league after rookie Jaxson Hayes and old man Kevin Love. By comparison, our old friend Willey Cauley-Stein is the 3rd-best defensive center in the league but the worst offensive center by a mile, which jives with my memories of him constantly whiffing easy layups and killing possessions with ill-fated fadeaways. (Aside: I don't watch Dallas games, but if WCS keeps doing that move, I'm going to start calling it the Derp Nowitzki.) Overall, among 54 players with Center listed as one of their positions, Zeller ranks as #46. The one thing he has going for him is that his numbers are as decent as they are playing so many minutes, but I think that's also a factor of Charlotte not having any better options at center. (Bismack Biyombo and P.J. Washington are not exactly great alternatives.)
There are lots of worse centers in the league and worse contracts, but it also seems plenty possible to pick up a player on the vet minimum who'll be about as good, so there's no gain in trading down to acquire him. If trading down one slot means we miss Wiseman (because Charlotte takes him, which seems likely in this scenario) then I think it's a bad trade because I think Wiseman has about 50/50 odds of being better than Zeller *this season*.
(The deleted post this was replying to was asking about trading down to Charlotte's #3 pick in exchange for Cody Zeller)