Apr 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball, Daniel Hardee
What ails the Dubs? (draft history analysis)
Their is a formula used to assess value to draft picks (1-60) based on all sorts of historical data. For instance, Tankathon has a tab on their website that shows the value that all teams hold in the upcoming draft. I did a 30 team deep dive on the drafts from 2013 to 2019 (7 year period) and came up with a few mind blowing stats.
1. The total draft value of the Warrior's 2020 draft (picks 2, 48, 51) was GREATER THAN the COMBINED 7 year period of Warriors picks between 2013 & 2019.
Let that soak in.
2. The Warriors had 6 picks in 7 years (28, 28, 30, 30, 41, 58)
Not included: McCaw & J Bell (purchased) & Smiley (via Trade)
On the opposite end of the spectrum was Philly. 35 picks, including (1, 1, 3, 3, 10, 10, 11, 24, 24, 26, 26)
3. If you take the SUM VALUE of picks over the 2013-2019 7 year period, divide by 7 to get a yearly average, then assign each team 2 picks that would equal that annual value, then .... the following teams would have averaged the following picks (or equivalent) for 7 straight years:
PHI picks 1, 23 (not a typo)
PHO picks 2, 26
BOS picks 3, 36
ORL picks 4, 35
ATL picks 5, 48
and keep going until yours truly
GSW picks 42, 60 (if combined, and only one pick per year: pick 37 average)
These numbers represent the 7 year average were each team to have taken 2 picks only in each draft based on the sum value of each team's actual picks over that period.
Now, let that sink in.
4. The draft is like Monopoly. Pass GO and collect $200. Each year, you get to add 2 players, raw material, assets. Whether to keep and develop or trade, they remain assets. Imagine going around the Monopoly board 7 straight times and NOT COLLECTING $200 each time. The Warriors should rename the street in front of the Chase Center Baltic Avenue. (New Warriors bench nicknames: The Baltic Avenue Boys or the Mediterranean Players)
This is not meant to disparage the front office or the foul prone Substitutes, in fact, quite the opposite. Outside the Trio (Steph-Klay-Dray) and 2 NBA Starters (Wiggs & Oubre), the reason for the lack of depth on this team is smack in our collective faces. They are a bunch of good guys, all fit to be numbers 11-15 on your depth chart. But the Warriors are bereft of "Good NBA Players", the kind of players that you get when you draft higher than 28 over a seven year period.
We all had a great party, got a little hung over, then the bill for 3 titles and 5 finals appearances came due. I laugh (cry) any time I hear someone criticize Bob Meyers for his picks. WHAT PICKS? Seriously, WHAT PICKS are people talking about? And if you claim Meyers should have used trades instead, well, trades only really work when you have something of value to trade yourself.
IN SUM
What people just don't realize is just how massive the Warriors Draft Value deficit was from 2013 to 2019 and how, more than anything else, it explains the roster they have today. It's worth restating: their 2020 Draft Value exceeded the combined draft value of their picks from 2013 to 2019. That is nuts.
The Warriors are who they are because of who they were. Most people believe that the addition of Durant brought and end to "Strength in Numbers." That cost us a few vet players, but the real culprit has been the draft capital that was lost over those 7 years, a casualty of beautiful basketball played at the highest level.
My own belief. Screw the "ALL IN" movement. The better play is to capitalize on the draft value we have in front of us + 2020 draft additions. We have just walked out of the desert and a feast is laid out before us (Jalen Green, Kuminga, Wagner, Keon, Giddy etc). Some believe in a mirage, an Oasis, a sun stroke hallucination of Bradley Beale and another Banner, but they are tripping. We need the draft capital now, when we can get it, because from 2013-2019 the cupboard was bare.
Steph & Dray are like Miles Davis & Charlie Parker playing in a High School Marching Band. 90% of their turnovers are unforced, most often virtuoso passes that might work when surrounded by other highly talented musicians (Bogut, Livingston, Iggy, etc), but find nothing but empty court side seats when surrounded by pimple faced kids reading sheet music. If they want to hold Baze, D Lee and crew accountable for fouling, perhaps the accountability should start at the top with the team leaders. How about Steph and Dray lock in and cut down on their unforced turnovers. And Kerr could practice calling time outs before the game is over. The old saying is true, "It starts at the top." If they want to straighten out the ship, Kerr, Steph and Dray need to lead by example. If the leaders aren't going to set an example by being disciplined in their own play, how in the world are we to expect the likes of JTA, DLee, Baze, etc., to get better. Their is obviously frustration, but their is only frustration because Kerr-Steph-Dray have allowed it. It's time they all stepped up, play ball, and maybe give credit to the guys on the other side once in awhile for outplaying them.
> Sources said the NBA Competition Committee is also evaluating playing rules and interpretation of rules regarding unnatural shooting motions in connection with perimeter jump-shots and on-ball screens, and the principle of verticality.
While we're dissecting the negative vibes from recent games, I had a thought last night. Forget about the draft, but hasn't the Warriors front office been spectacularly bad at signing guys to the MLE?
- Nick Young: surprisingly contributed at key moments during a championship run, but was pretty bad a lot of the time and basically fell out of the league (without properly retiring) immediately after that one season.
- Demarcus Cousins: he had to be the one to call the Warriors, not the other way around. But he was just starting to look like a relevant part of the team when he reinjured himself.
- Willey Cauley-Stein: was not what the team needed. Missed a depressing number of point-blank shots. Nowadays a somewhat decent Dallas team brings him off the bench.
- Wanamaker: we've been over this recently. In fairness, he took less than the full MLE.
The MLE is the only thing a team like the Warriors can use to attract free agents who want and deserve more than the minimum while they're over the cap with the highly-paid core. But aside from a guy who brought it up himself and spent the whole season injured, basically every one of these dudes played as bad or worse than a vet minimum player. Not every MLE signing will be good, but I think it's fair to expect a higher level than this.
Andrew Bogut on Kelly Oubre saying he wouldn't come off the bench next season: "Warriors players didn't take lightly to those comments. They made it known lguodala, a Finals MVP was OK with coming off the bench but Kelly MFing Oubre won't. That was to his face from an unknown player in the locker room who was not happy with those comments"
I have to admit that I don't believe at this point. I still love the Ws and continue to cheer for them, but it's kind of looking like we can stick a fork in them...
Looking at the GSOM quotes from we believe and thinking back over the years. Isn’t the Warriors fascination with bigs a strange phenomenon? Every year seemingly going back decades folks are clamoring for some tall addition to be made.
Fans that were around for the Erick Dampier era Warriors probably aren't that dissatisfied with the current team. It could be worse, and it has been in the past. In those dark days talk about the upcoming draft started in December.
What ails the Dubs? (draft history analysis)
Their is a formula used to assess value to draft picks (1-60) based on all sorts of historical data. For instance, Tankathon has a tab on their website that shows the value that all teams hold in the upcoming draft. I did a 30 team deep dive on the drafts from 2013 to 2019 (7 year period) and came up with a few mind blowing stats.
1. The total draft value of the Warrior's 2020 draft (picks 2, 48, 51) was GREATER THAN the COMBINED 7 year period of Warriors picks between 2013 & 2019.
Let that soak in.
2. The Warriors had 6 picks in 7 years (28, 28, 30, 30, 41, 58)
Not included: McCaw & J Bell (purchased) & Smiley (via Trade)
On the opposite end of the spectrum was Philly. 35 picks, including (1, 1, 3, 3, 10, 10, 11, 24, 24, 26, 26)
3. If you take the SUM VALUE of picks over the 2013-2019 7 year period, divide by 7 to get a yearly average, then assign each team 2 picks that would equal that annual value, then .... the following teams would have averaged the following picks (or equivalent) for 7 straight years:
PHI picks 1, 23 (not a typo)
PHO picks 2, 26
BOS picks 3, 36
ORL picks 4, 35
ATL picks 5, 48
and keep going until yours truly
GSW picks 42, 60 (if combined, and only one pick per year: pick 37 average)
These numbers represent the 7 year average were each team to have taken 2 picks only in each draft based on the sum value of each team's actual picks over that period.
Now, let that sink in.
4. The draft is like Monopoly. Pass GO and collect $200. Each year, you get to add 2 players, raw material, assets. Whether to keep and develop or trade, they remain assets. Imagine going around the Monopoly board 7 straight times and NOT COLLECTING $200 each time. The Warriors should rename the street in front of the Chase Center Baltic Avenue. (New Warriors bench nicknames: The Baltic Avenue Boys or the Mediterranean Players)
This is not meant to disparage the front office or the foul prone Substitutes, in fact, quite the opposite. Outside the Trio (Steph-Klay-Dray) and 2 NBA Starters (Wiggs & Oubre), the reason for the lack of depth on this team is smack in our collective faces. They are a bunch of good guys, all fit to be numbers 11-15 on your depth chart. But the Warriors are bereft of "Good NBA Players", the kind of players that you get when you draft higher than 28 over a seven year period.
We all had a great party, got a little hung over, then the bill for 3 titles and 5 finals appearances came due. I laugh (cry) any time I hear someone criticize Bob Meyers for his picks. WHAT PICKS? Seriously, WHAT PICKS are people talking about? And if you claim Meyers should have used trades instead, well, trades only really work when you have something of value to trade yourself.
IN SUM
What people just don't realize is just how massive the Warriors Draft Value deficit was from 2013 to 2019 and how, more than anything else, it explains the roster they have today. It's worth restating: their 2020 Draft Value exceeded the combined draft value of their picks from 2013 to 2019. That is nuts.
The Warriors are who they are because of who they were. Most people believe that the addition of Durant brought and end to "Strength in Numbers." That cost us a few vet players, but the real culprit has been the draft capital that was lost over those 7 years, a casualty of beautiful basketball played at the highest level.
My own belief. Screw the "ALL IN" movement. The better play is to capitalize on the draft value we have in front of us + 2020 draft additions. We have just walked out of the desert and a feast is laid out before us (Jalen Green, Kuminga, Wagner, Keon, Giddy etc). Some believe in a mirage, an Oasis, a sun stroke hallucination of Bradley Beale and another Banner, but they are tripping. We need the draft capital now, when we can get it, because from 2013-2019 the cupboard was bare.
Steph & Dray are like Miles Davis & Charlie Parker playing in a High School Marching Band. 90% of their turnovers are unforced, most often virtuoso passes that might work when surrounded by other highly talented musicians (Bogut, Livingston, Iggy, etc), but find nothing but empty court side seats when surrounded by pimple faced kids reading sheet music. If they want to hold Baze, D Lee and crew accountable for fouling, perhaps the accountability should start at the top with the team leaders. How about Steph and Dray lock in and cut down on their unforced turnovers. And Kerr could practice calling time outs before the game is over. The old saying is true, "It starts at the top." If they want to straighten out the ship, Kerr, Steph and Dray need to lead by example. If the leaders aren't going to set an example by being disciplined in their own play, how in the world are we to expect the likes of JTA, DLee, Baze, etc., to get better. Their is obviously frustration, but their is only frustration because Kerr-Steph-Dray have allowed it. It's time they all stepped up, play ball, and maybe give credit to the guys on the other side once in awhile for outplaying them.
73 wins Warriors losing to “ Mitchell”,”Butler” and “Teague”😣
I'm always in a bad mood when Minnesota wins lol. Ruins my day way more than a Warrior loss.
oooh yes please NBA!
> @ShamsCharania
> Sources said the NBA Competition Committee is also evaluating playing rules and interpretation of rules regarding unnatural shooting motions in connection with perimeter jump-shots and on-ball screens, and the principle of verticality.
"Fire everybody! Trade everybody! The sky is falling!" Geez. Thanks for a dose of sanity, DH!
While we're dissecting the negative vibes from recent games, I had a thought last night. Forget about the draft, but hasn't the Warriors front office been spectacularly bad at signing guys to the MLE?
- Nick Young: surprisingly contributed at key moments during a championship run, but was pretty bad a lot of the time and basically fell out of the league (without properly retiring) immediately after that one season.
- Demarcus Cousins: he had to be the one to call the Warriors, not the other way around. But he was just starting to look like a relevant part of the team when he reinjured himself.
- Willey Cauley-Stein: was not what the team needed. Missed a depressing number of point-blank shots. Nowadays a somewhat decent Dallas team brings him off the bench.
- Wanamaker: we've been over this recently. In fairness, he took less than the full MLE.
The MLE is the only thing a team like the Warriors can use to attract free agents who want and deserve more than the minimum while they're over the cap with the highly-paid core. But aside from a guy who brought it up himself and spent the whole season injured, basically every one of these dudes played as bad or worse than a vet minimum player. Not every MLE signing will be good, but I think it's fair to expect a higher level than this.
More drama
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/mkoga4/andrew_bogut_on_kelly_oubre_saying_he_wouldnt/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Andrew Bogut on Kelly Oubre saying he wouldn't come off the bench next season: "Warriors players didn't take lightly to those comments. They made it known lguodala, a Finals MVP was OK with coming off the bench but Kelly MFing Oubre won't. That was to his face from an unknown player in the locker room who was not happy with those comments"
I have to admit that I don't believe at this point. I still love the Ws and continue to cheer for them, but it's kind of looking like we can stick a fork in them...
I'll be here joyfully eating crow if I'm wrong.
Looking at the GSOM quotes from we believe and thinking back over the years. Isn’t the Warriors fascination with bigs a strange phenomenon? Every year seemingly going back decades folks are clamoring for some tall addition to be made.
Fans that were around for the Erick Dampier era Warriors probably aren't that dissatisfied with the current team. It could be worse, and it has been in the past. In those dark days talk about the upcoming draft started in December.