Writing about Draymond's contributions and intangibles can be summarized: he's a winner. He would be a very annoying team-mate, because he allows himself to be vulnerable (to being disliked) by calling things as he sees them - for the good of the team. But the NBA isn't grade school. Draymond cares intensely about winning, and players/coaches who recognize this set aside their defensiveness in order to get better. One aspect of this attitude is the willingness to admit one's own contributions to team failure. Like anyone, Draymond doesn't like this, but I believe he's able to accept responsibility for his mistakes. Draymond Green is a winner.
Thinking about Green’s on/off numbers, it seems like they could be largely influenced by Steph. Before his back injury, he was usually playing (and resting) when Steph did. When he returned, there was no Curry, but Draymond played a lot with Klay, who was gumming up the offense quite a bit.
I don’t know how difficult it is to look at “The Curry Effect” on Draymond’s numbers over the years, but I suspect they might drive a lot of the volatility you were talking about. In other words, can we see Drays on/off number with Steph and without Steph?
29 mpg last year, but more like 31 in Oct-Dec prior to getting hurt. Can they get that number down to 24-25...22?
I wouldn't add onto Looney's minutes. That 20 mpg had him fresh and extremely effective in the playoffs.
That's a great spot to give Wiseman and Kuminga more minutes.
For a historical comp: Completely different players/positions but similar importance in terms of talent and heart/culture. Manu for the Spurs was an All-Star 30mpg player in his age 33 season. The next year they dropped him to 23 mpg where he was at the next four seasons. Those four seasons included one Western Conference Finals, two Finals, and one title where he was still a playoff rotation guy.
I expect Draymond will be the second best Warrior this season as per usual. The decline will happen eventually, but I'll have to see he's not #2 on the Warriors first to believe it.
Nothing gets me more excited than an opportunity to gush over Draymond Green. Yes, his shooting form is like he is giving a piggy back ride to Oliver Miller. Yes his body at some point is going to completely give out due to him taking on guys twice his size. Yes he seems to have taken his filter and thrown it into the Saginaw River.
You could go on and on... but, the reality in my opinion is that Draymond is a basketball savant. Draymond is everything to this team and everything to this teams future. Like that tweet mentions above, what Draymond can do in chaos is shear brilliance. What he can do in real time, I can't even figure out watching in super slow-motion replays.
I wish he was given more respect, but then again I think it is what drives him. I love the guy... ok, enough gushing....
Steve Kerr on teams around the NBA playing bigger:
“I like it. I like when teams zig when everybody else is zagging. I think it's smart. I think our advantage has always been Draymond Green. He gives us the flexibility to play big or small.”
Here is another interesting post from SIS on Advantages Prevented. Compare Dray to the other leaders. Even though he has the fewest opportunities, he still have the 2nd highest advantages prevented. If my math is right, if you extrapolate his prevention rate to the same number of opportunities as Thybulle, his advantages prevented is 8.18. Put another way Thybulle's prevention rate per opportunity is .114, while Dray's is .143. Not that you can guarantee that more opportunities will always net the corresponding number of additional preventions, but it is clear to me that he is in a class of his own.
Sep 22, 2022·edited Sep 22, 2022Liked by punk basketball
Not that this is exactly a 'stop the presses' take, but:
I don't care all that much what Draymond does during the regular season. If we can get 'playoff Draymond' defense in roughly half of the playoff games, then he's still an elite force, even when his shot isn't there (which is most of the time).
The question is just how often he can do it any more. It felt to me like it was more uneven this last playoffs than previous ones, and that was with two elite on-ball defenders (GPII and Wiggs) and two good ones (recovering Klay, playoff Steph) to make his job a little easier.
Age or injury or podcasting or ? is likely to reduce his effectiveness going forward (though I really hope that is a few years off, still).
I don't really know if he's re-signable at the end of his current contract. If he takes a reduced amount (<$30 mil), then sure. But, I doubt he will be OK with a number the Warriors can live with.
Sep 22, 2022·edited Sep 22, 2022Liked by punk basketball
Thanks Duby, good summary.
I know we here at the HQ generally think that what makes the Dubs special is the unique skill set and synergy of Steph, Klay, and Dray. Wiggs is the generic “really awesome wing” that plugs in nicely. Looney is another unusual skill-set built for this team and it’s method.
But I wonder if this is true - is the Dubs’ playing style unique and dependent on these guys? While I firmly believe that Steph and Draymond are 100th percentile anomalous skill set players (sorry Klay), does that mean the Warriors are truly impossible to copy? I would be sad if that’s true because I find ISO ball combined with drive and kick 3 pointers far less entertaining.
Can other teams build a high movement and passing style play, with more or less positionless roles, around players with different skill sets? Is the reason they don’t because they lack of players with the right capabilities, or lack players with willingness to learn these skills? Or is it just unimaginative or conservative coaching?
Sports is always a copy cat world. You’d think 6 finals appearances and 4 rings would get copied quite a bit more aggressively. Or maybe it’s happening and I’m just not noticing.
I hope the Warriors brain trust isn't baking on Wisemans availability this season. That seems like a poor way to spend what should hopefully be a more relaxing/celebratory/stress reducing activity.
Unless Green has a ‘miss 30 games’ injury or regression on his back issues, it seems like the way to manage him is to back him down to closer to 25 minutes a game. Would he tolerate it, do the coaches have the intestinal fortitude to stick to it, I don’t know. I’d love to see the same with Steph and possibly Klay as well. But there’s always the ‘what if the Dubs start losing a bunch of games?’
I predict we’re going to see a pretty reduced minute load on the old fellas in the first 10 games, with the young guns getting a lot of minutes. There will be a fairly fixed rotation. If we win 6 or 7 it will stick. If we lose a lot then … who knows?
“Very few players have better recognition and awareness in chaos”
That’s it right there. Steph is a master at creating chaos and weaving order from it. Clearly Dray is a big part of how that works. There is a mutualistic symbiotic relationship in that regard.
I'm just going through my spell books to see about making his back invulnerable.
Writing about Draymond's contributions and intangibles can be summarized: he's a winner. He would be a very annoying team-mate, because he allows himself to be vulnerable (to being disliked) by calling things as he sees them - for the good of the team. But the NBA isn't grade school. Draymond cares intensely about winning, and players/coaches who recognize this set aside their defensiveness in order to get better. One aspect of this attitude is the willingness to admit one's own contributions to team failure. Like anyone, Draymond doesn't like this, but I believe he's able to accept responsibility for his mistakes. Draymond Green is a winner.
Welcome back Duby!
Thinking about Green’s on/off numbers, it seems like they could be largely influenced by Steph. Before his back injury, he was usually playing (and resting) when Steph did. When he returned, there was no Curry, but Draymond played a lot with Klay, who was gumming up the offense quite a bit.
I don’t know how difficult it is to look at “The Curry Effect” on Draymond’s numbers over the years, but I suspect they might drive a lot of the volatility you were talking about. In other words, can we see Drays on/off number with Steph and without Steph?
29 mpg last year, but more like 31 in Oct-Dec prior to getting hurt. Can they get that number down to 24-25...22?
I wouldn't add onto Looney's minutes. That 20 mpg had him fresh and extremely effective in the playoffs.
That's a great spot to give Wiseman and Kuminga more minutes.
For a historical comp: Completely different players/positions but similar importance in terms of talent and heart/culture. Manu for the Spurs was an All-Star 30mpg player in his age 33 season. The next year they dropped him to 23 mpg where he was at the next four seasons. Those four seasons included one Western Conference Finals, two Finals, and one title where he was still a playoff rotation guy.
I expect Draymond will be the second best Warrior this season as per usual. The decline will happen eventually, but I'll have to see he's not #2 on the Warriors first to believe it.
Hell of a "I'm Back!" article Duby.
Nothing gets me more excited than an opportunity to gush over Draymond Green. Yes, his shooting form is like he is giving a piggy back ride to Oliver Miller. Yes his body at some point is going to completely give out due to him taking on guys twice his size. Yes he seems to have taken his filter and thrown it into the Saginaw River.
You could go on and on... but, the reality in my opinion is that Draymond is a basketball savant. Draymond is everything to this team and everything to this teams future. Like that tweet mentions above, what Draymond can do in chaos is shear brilliance. What he can do in real time, I can't even figure out watching in super slow-motion replays.
I wish he was given more respect, but then again I think it is what drives him. I love the guy... ok, enough gushing....
Kerr on Dray today!
> @markhaynesnba
Steve Kerr on teams around the NBA playing bigger:
“I like it. I like when teams zig when everybody else is zagging. I think it's smart. I think our advantage has always been Draymond Green. He gives us the flexibility to play big or small.”
Here is another interesting post from SIS on Advantages Prevented. Compare Dray to the other leaders. Even though he has the fewest opportunities, he still have the 2nd highest advantages prevented. If my math is right, if you extrapolate his prevention rate to the same number of opportunities as Thybulle, his advantages prevented is 8.18. Put another way Thybulle's prevention rate per opportunity is .114, while Dray's is .143. Not that you can guarantee that more opportunities will always net the corresponding number of additional preventions, but it is clear to me that he is in a class of his own.
https://twitter.com/SIS_Hoops/status/1569368570378731520
> and the Warriors are baking
*puff* *puff*
Not that this is exactly a 'stop the presses' take, but:
I don't care all that much what Draymond does during the regular season. If we can get 'playoff Draymond' defense in roughly half of the playoff games, then he's still an elite force, even when his shot isn't there (which is most of the time).
The question is just how often he can do it any more. It felt to me like it was more uneven this last playoffs than previous ones, and that was with two elite on-ball defenders (GPII and Wiggs) and two good ones (recovering Klay, playoff Steph) to make his job a little easier.
Age or injury or podcasting or ? is likely to reduce his effectiveness going forward (though I really hope that is a few years off, still).
I don't really know if he's re-signable at the end of his current contract. If he takes a reduced amount (<$30 mil), then sure. But, I doubt he will be OK with a number the Warriors can live with.
The graph that you posted with green in the upper left hand quadrant, who were the other two players up their with him. I could not tell.
Interesting how much better Green was compared to Payton.
Thanks Duby, good summary.
I know we here at the HQ generally think that what makes the Dubs special is the unique skill set and synergy of Steph, Klay, and Dray. Wiggs is the generic “really awesome wing” that plugs in nicely. Looney is another unusual skill-set built for this team and it’s method.
But I wonder if this is true - is the Dubs’ playing style unique and dependent on these guys? While I firmly believe that Steph and Draymond are 100th percentile anomalous skill set players (sorry Klay), does that mean the Warriors are truly impossible to copy? I would be sad if that’s true because I find ISO ball combined with drive and kick 3 pointers far less entertaining.
Can other teams build a high movement and passing style play, with more or less positionless roles, around players with different skill sets? Is the reason they don’t because they lack of players with the right capabilities, or lack players with willingness to learn these skills? Or is it just unimaginative or conservative coaching?
Sports is always a copy cat world. You’d think 6 finals appearances and 4 rings would get copied quite a bit more aggressively. Or maybe it’s happening and I’m just not noticing.
I hope the Warriors brain trust isn't baking on Wisemans availability this season. That seems like a poor way to spend what should hopefully be a more relaxing/celebratory/stress reducing activity.
NVRMND, maybe they are baking....
Unless Green has a ‘miss 30 games’ injury or regression on his back issues, it seems like the way to manage him is to back him down to closer to 25 minutes a game. Would he tolerate it, do the coaches have the intestinal fortitude to stick to it, I don’t know. I’d love to see the same with Steph and possibly Klay as well. But there’s always the ‘what if the Dubs start losing a bunch of games?’
I predict we’re going to see a pretty reduced minute load on the old fellas in the first 10 games, with the young guns getting a lot of minutes. There will be a fairly fixed rotation. If we win 6 or 7 it will stick. If we lose a lot then … who knows?
“Very few players have better recognition and awareness in chaos”
That’s it right there. Steph is a master at creating chaos and weaving order from it. Clearly Dray is a big part of how that works. There is a mutualistic symbiotic relationship in that regard.