99 Comments

Ben simmons is a monster simple as that, he had a shitty playoffs and didnt have the right team chemistry to keep his confidence high, hes being extremely underrated by recency bias

Expand full comment

He's the kind of monster that refuses to work on improving the part of his game year in and year out, even when the team he plays for begs him to do so and offers to provide him with coaching and support to get better (which he repeatedly refuses). Pretty monstrous from a good teammate perspective. You can blame the teammate chemistry at PHI, but this is across multiple coaches and front offices and playing with a teammate in Embiid that has actively made changes to his game to accommodate Ben's deficiencies (by playing further away from the basket and shooting more threes to space the floor better because Ben won't shoot them at all).

As far as the recency bias go, I disagree with that. If we look at the numbers from each of the three ECF series Simmons has played, which to date have been the most important playoff moments of his career, you can see that this is a trend and not a blip. I don't see why thus somehow changes suddenly if he comes over to GSW.

Per Game FG% 3P% FT% PTS TRB AST

Regular Season Career: .560 .147 .597 15.9 8.1 7.7

2018 ECS: .475 n/a .696 14.4 8.2 6.4

2019 ECS: .600 n/a .563 11.6 7.3 4.9

2021 ECS: .600 n/a .333 9.9 6.3 8.6

What do you see? I see a player that has decreased his scoring in every eastern conference championship series he has played in, has completely refused to work on his free throw shooting since he broke into the league, and has completely given up shooting 3's entirely. Even Draymond, who gets maligned frequently for his 3P shooting woes, is more of a threat to shoot (and make) a 3 in the playoffs vs Ben.

This team doesn't need a regular season MVP, it needs reliable playoff performers. Simmons ain't that.

Expand full comment

Speaking of Draymond, he himself wasn't too keen on improving his shot either. Whenever he'd be asked about improving his shooting, he'd just say why would I if I can pass it to Steph.

Expand full comment

I will hypothesize that his flexibility and mobility is limited by the old shoulder injury. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Expand full comment

For sure, Draymond's 3p% is not great. But that doesn't change my point that at least he is a threat to shoot from 3 in the playoffs, which you can't say for Ben. Draymond's playoff 3p% is also directly in line with his career averages (31.6% career, 31.5% playoffs) with comparable volume (2.8 3's attempted per game regular season, 3.7 attempts per game in the playoffs). Ben's 3p% goes from .147 on .1 attempts per game in the regular season to.... 0.0% on .1 attempts per game in the playoffs. Who is going to be more likely to be guarded at the 3 point line?

Expand full comment

I think neither will be guarded at the 3 point line. Despite Draymond being better, he's still bad.

Expand full comment

Yes, but the difference is Draymond uses that to screen for others (which lessens the negative impact of Draymond's antigravity). Will Simmons even agree to that? He seems like he's a diva who thinks he's way better than he is.

Expand full comment

Nah. There are varying degrees of bad and Simmons is on a whole different continent.

Expand full comment

So does that mean you’d trade Wiggins, Wiseman, Kuminga, Moody and two more 1st rounders for him? If no, what would you give up for him?

Expand full comment

No wiseman or kuminga

Expand full comment

Trading Draymond for Ben would be idiotic. They are complementary players on D who can also switch and keep the ball moving to hit the shooters and cutters in position for high % shots, it’s the combination of the two that would unlock the full power of the Warriors.

Expand full comment

Only if BS is willing to play 5, though.

Expand full comment

Mid-season tournament: why aren’t they mentioning a lottery pick as the winning team’s incentive anymore? Seems way more likely to get fan interest than a trophy.

Expand full comment

Run it between non-playoff teams for the #1 pick. Changed the ridiculously idiotic incentive structure around the league - smart front offices who are rebuilding should look to improve their team, not make it the worst team possible. Last year's Thunder, Magic (post-trade), Pistons and Rockets were pretty awful to watch as a fan.

Expand full comment

This would be a death knell for bad teams in a small market...

Expand full comment

I don't see why. Bad teams in small markets cannot likely attract top level superstars, but they can overpay someone like a Jerami Grant or other good but not great players. In fact, those teams now actually have an incentive to push towards becoming better rather than bottoming out. They'll have an incentive to go from terrible to mediocre which isn't really that hard.

There will be some problems, but I would argue it's a much more perfect system than the monstrosity that is tanking right now (where ~5 teams a year have no intention to win any games). And of course, such a tournament means way more money for the NBA. Imagine if there was a tournament for someone like Zion.

Expand full comment

If there's a talent like Zion available to this non-playoff team tournament winner, teams might tank themselves out of the bottom of the playoffs for him, lol. You will not eliminate tanking, you can only move around the motivations.

Don't get me wrong, taking lottery chance away from bad small market teams wouldn't be the sole reason they struggle, but it will hurt on top of all the other things already stacked against them.

Expand full comment

Yes, that is the primary problem I was also thinking about. But surely, teams tanking from 6/7/8 to 9/10 is less of a problem than teams tanking for 15 as:

- Teams would face much more pressure. Making the playoffs is important for a lot of fans, so there'd be much more pressure in tanking when you're 6th than when you're 12th/13th. I would argue it's a lot more politically inconvenient to tank when you're in 8th than when you're in 13th, which matters as Front Office People don't want the scrutiny of fans. This aligns their incentives with the quality of their team.

- If teams are shooting for 9th or 10th (which may well happen for prospect like Zion), they're still not completely terrible teams. That means a higher quality of product for most fans and less free wins for most teams. For instance, I would argue that the Toronto Raptors last year (who sort of stealth tanked for a big portion of the year) are much better for the league than a team like the late season Thunder or Magic who are barely better than some G-League teams.

- Teams on the other end of the spectrum (who are quite bad, say the 12th best team in the conference) now have an active incentive to try and get better (particularly if they incentivize getting a higher seed in the tournament).

And you still haven't mentioned why small market teams in particular are gonna be worse off with the tournament. Small market teams have problems in attracting elite superstar FAs and cheap vet mins. They don't have a problem in attracting the Grants and Woods and Derozans of the world as they can simply overpay for those players (which contenders will not usually want to do). The problem is that the incentive structure leads to those sorts of players not being signed by bad, small market teams (at least the well run ones). For instance, a small market team could've paid Batum ~10-15 million this past offseason to help win the tournament this year. He would've likely signed there (there is an immense difference between 10-15 million and the vet min). As the system is currently, bad teams don't want to give a lot of money to Batum as he'd help them win too many games and good teams don't have the money to give apart from MLE or vet min type contracts. With this, players like Batum (good but not great) receive mediocre offers from both small-market and big-market teams alike, and they'll obviously usually go to the big market team if the money is a wash.

Expand full comment

That'd be a real serious path to contention: put together a good team capable of going to the playoffs, then go win the draft tournament and get your superstar #1 pick that leaps you into contention.

Here at DNHQ, we already openly discussed whether the Warriors would be better off going for the playoffs at the risk of losing the first round pick this year. People were generally on the "go for the playoffs" side, but we were even having the discussion with only a mid-round pick on the line. If it's the choice between lottery + Chet vs. likely 1st round playoff exit + 20th pick, I think a lot of people probably move to the other side of the argument.

If I'm a fan of a team that's at the bottom of the NBA, and the only way my team can improve is by overpaying middling players to get to "half respectable", am I really going to keep tuning into the NBA? I think they lose fans to other sports... At least now, fans can talk themselves into "hey, we got a shot at the next Zion!"

Expand full comment

That tournament would be fantastic

Expand full comment

I think there's a good chance that John Wall gets bought out around midseason regardless of what the Rockets are saying now, and I think the Warriors should try to add him.

Expand full comment

According to https://www.spotrac.com/nba/houston-rockets/john-wall-6882/ Wall gets $44 million this year and has a player option for $47 million for next year.

He ain't gettin bought out.

Expand full comment

It's a massive contract but is Wall really cool with sitting out for an entire season at age 31? If he was playing for them while they sucked I'd understand it but I don't know why he'd agree to sit out for an entire season after recently missing two full seasons and being on the other side of 30. That situation does not seem tenable to me unless they say fuck it and start giving him some minutes. And his contract seems really tough to trade imo.

Blake Griffin had 75 million left on his deal when he got bought out which makes me think it is possible. Wall has 91 million so it's a different level, but post-Griffin I could see it happening.

Expand full comment

Even if he does get bought out, would he come to the Warriors to come off the bench?

Expand full comment

Warriors gotta keep the MLE around, otherwise he's for sure going to the Lakers or Nets ;-)

Expand full comment

I doubt money would matter to him. Even if he gives up some money in a buyout, he's still going to get a massive amount

Expand full comment

As long as they use it to improve the team, I don't mind if it comes at midseason

Expand full comment

Even if the Warriors are interested in BS as a player, I don't see any reason to trade for a player whose value is almost certain to drop as time goes on as his negative situation intensifies and his relationship with his current team devolves even further. Even outside any consideration of Simmons' basketball fit here, the team would be foolish to jump on any trade at this point in time.

Expand full comment

Not making a move is also a move. Everyday we don't make an offer, there's a risk that someone else does and a trade is finalized.

Expand full comment

Good, I very much hope that someone else does.

Expand full comment

At some point it becomes a question of who else is offering something better. I hope somebody else gets in on it before the Warriors.

Expand full comment
author

Truehoop today had a Ben Simmons trade piece:

***

https://www.truehoop.com/p/trading-ben-simmons-isnt-easy

Ben Simmons and Jaden Springer for Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody

Yes, James Wiseman could be included in this instead of one of the rookies, though the 76ers have so few minutes for him to develop that I’d guess he’d be headed to a third team in an effort to bring more ready to win-now talent to Philly. I love this deal for the Warriors, as described last week—not for the Sixers. If Simmons is a no-show, and the 76ers Eastern rivals are on fire, Morey will have to consider starless options like this one. Wiggins made progress with his defense last season and of course Morey could trade the rookies for win-now players if he prefers.

***

And while we’re at it, same article:

***

Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans for Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, and James Wiseman

Curry and Beal led the league in scoring. If Thompson returns healthy they’d have the best backcourt/small forward combo in the league to play with Green and his do-it-all talent. Beal may not love the fit, but given his options this would be his best spot to at least play for a team that should win over 50 games. I’m certain the Warriors would want a long-term commitment from him and I think they’d get it. For Washington, they get a two-way scorer/defender who could end up getting moved again, plus two outstanding prospects who both could be All-Stars by 2025 or so. They are so talented it’d be worth it to slip outside the top eight in the East—it’d only be for a season if it happened at all.

***

Expand full comment

I hate both of these potential deals as they severely undervalue Kuminga.

Expand full comment

I’m still really curious about what All-Star wings entered the NBA with sub 40% FG and sub 65% FT shooting at the prior level. Are we sure Kuminga isn’t being over valued by us locals?

Expand full comment

Jaylen Brown is the closest w/ 43% FG and 65% FT; I'm with you I think he's being overvalued. Hope we're wrong!

Expand full comment

I don't like the trades for our team either but I think you're undervaluing Simmons and Beal

Expand full comment

What do you expect from the fan blog of a team? Every team thinks their prospect is an all-star and is hesitant to give them up for actual all-stars.

But who knows? Kuminga might one day be as good as Ben Simmons.

Expand full comment

I strongly disagree.

Expand full comment

Worth noting, the Beal trades are "As I see it today, three deals jump off the page, in order of how much they’ll improve the Wizards:" So yeah, they'll improve the Wizards!

Expand full comment

This is the same guy who thinks Simmons for Malcom Brogdon and TJ Warren would be a "good deal for the 76ers". Sure.

Expand full comment

Good interview with Kris Weems. He’s high on Moody, Kuminga and Wiseman, but is seems to be most confident in Poole being ready for a very prominent role this season.

https://youtu.be/yJRKbkqHwCg (Weems’ part starts about 10 minutes in)

Expand full comment

I really like listening to Kris Weems talk.

Also, at 14:32 he literally uses the phrase "putting players in a box " (and "then we expand their box). 🤔

Expand full comment

... "and then you can develop this trust that you can actually coach these players as opposed to them feeling it's personal". Am I reading into this too much? Oubre and his "universe putting him in a box" stuff...

Expand full comment

I don't think so! Weems even says "we *talk* about putting players in a box." It makes too much sense that that's what they would have wanted from Oubre, and I don't see why they wouldn't have explicitly told him so: we need you to start out by playing to your strengths and then we will expand your role over time. Well Oubre doesn't play very well in a box it turns out 🤷‍♂️

Expand full comment

Maybe. But sounds like he’s trying to foster a growth mindset in the players vice fixed; where their skills at basketball don’t define them as a person. It has the glow in effect of loosening them up to take on constructive feedback and put it into action as opposed to feeling a sense of failure.

Expand full comment

Oh I totally like and agree with Weems' (and Dubs' overall) approach. I guess I didn't flesh out my thoughts entirely, but it sounds to me like there might have been more conflict between the coaches and Oubre than I thought (or maybe I'm just out of the loop).

Expand full comment

For context: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/kelly-oubre-jr-felt-he-was-put-box-warriors-last-season

> "I want to continue to show all the things I’m capable of and not be put in a box," Oubre said on the latest HoopsHype podcast. "I felt like the universe was trying to put me in a box last year. It’s something that always clashes because it’s a big deal whenever I’m trying to be put in a box, because I can’t be put in a box.

>

> "I’m going to continue to show you and prove to you why you shouldn’t put me in a box.

That was late July. So just hearing Weems speak the words "putting players in a box" made me raise an eyebrow.

Expand full comment

I totally caught that as well.

In fairness, it’s much easier to put a rookie in a box than a 5-year guy free agent to be.

Expand full comment

Yeah sounds like there’s something in that then. Maybe he wants to get the message out to the players that the coaches are about enabling them not limiting them? KOJs comments surprised me…I can only assume he was talking about his role on the court? If so, he had some unrealistic expectations coming in…you’re joining SC team with SC offense. The only person that slightly changes for is KD!

Expand full comment

*flow on

Expand full comment
Sep 14, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot

Good stuff Eric!

I had watched that BBreakdown video yesterday and it does a great job of showing how BS clogs up Embiid’s office space hanging around the water cooler doing 🤷🏼‍♂️

As you both point out, Simmons at the 5 might make the most sense, but he doesn’t seem to want to do that.

Expand full comment

wow nice video. does he really like playing the guard either though? he looked good in that game as the center.

also, not a shot doctor, but his free throw is essentially entirely powered by the arm and wrist, super flat.

Expand full comment

Anyone hear of anything on the D. Collison front?

Expand full comment

I'm surprised we haven't heard anything about that yet

Expand full comment
author

Well, well, well... Look at this guy, not giving the Warriors an A grade for their offseason!! This dude clearly doesn't know what he's talking about lmao who is this guy?

https://theathletic.com/2773623/2021/09/14/zach-harpers-warriors-offseason-report-overall-grade-roster-breakdown-goals-for-2021-22/

Expand full comment

Probably he is Duby's alter ego.

Expand full comment
Sep 14, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot

I'm not subscribed. For non-subscribers (b/c DNHQ is all I really need), what were the main points?

Expand full comment

He think Poole is a wing not a PG, Mulder and Payton 2 will make the roster over Lee, Klay getting back to form will take time and next year might be better than this year. Some decent breakdowns and some strange ones.

Expand full comment

LOL @ Mulder & Payton over Lee

Expand full comment
Sep 14, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot

Morey lost the Westbrook-CP3 trade because he was forced to make it happen. Maybe that'll be the case here?

Expand full comment
author

Good point... I haven't heard anything nearly as damning about the Sixers owners as about Houston's Fertitta though.

Expand full comment

Thank you, sir! May I have another!

Expand full comment

Can't see a scenario where Simmons goes to the Ws. It just doesn't add up. The Ws, despite having many attractive pieces for a potential trade, don't have the kind of win-now assets to give up that the Sixers crave. And because Morey seems to have a very high value on Simmons as trade bait, he's unlikely to be enticed by what the Ws would actually give up.

All of that is before the questions about fit (my personal take is that Simmons /could/ fit but that his mindset makes it unlikely that he /would/).

It is a tale

Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing.

Expand full comment
author

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from summer league to training camp,

To the last rumor of the timeline;

And all our yesterdays have lighted fans

The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief offseason!

Life's but a talking head, a poor analyst,

That preens and spreads his rumor upon the stage,

And then is heard no more. It is a tale

Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing.

Expand full comment

Yes!

Expand full comment
Sep 14, 2021Liked by punk basketball

There are three-way scenarios, like Wiggs repatriating to Toronto, and Siakam joining his fellow Cameroonian JoJo in Philly. Or Dray joining his BFF Lillard in PDX, and CJ going to Philly.

But yeah, it’s all been hashed, re-hashed, and re-re-hashed. Can’t wait till it’s over. I love what we have now (esp. if we can add Collison).

Expand full comment

My offer to the Sixers would be at most Dray and the next couple of 1st rounders which won't be good, mostly to get somebody younger and under contract long enough for Wiseman, Kuminga, and Moody to develop. The Sixers would hang up.

Expand full comment

To be fair, I don't see any scenario, in any universe, at any time where Ben Simmons would be more beneficial to the Warriors than Draymond Green.

Expand full comment

I don’t want to trade for him, but he’s six years younger. The only argument I’ve heard for Simmons that makes sense to me is that he’s a longer-term asset and could play with the current team and “the kids” when it’s their turn.

Expand full comment

Simmons is a better scorer than Draymond, is younger so hopefully has room for improvement within our system (which fits him perfectly) a la Wiggins. He is a similar tier passer to Draymond, a slightly worse defender.

Chemistry wise, he doesn't have the same connection with Steph/Klay + isn't the leader that Dray is which is hard to quantify. A straight up Simmons for Dray trade is a lot more of a difficult decision than most people recognize.

Suppose that Simmons enters into our system which is basically tailormade for someone like him and has dramatic improvements! Surrounded by Curry/Klay, he averages four more points + 2 more assists because of spacing/scoring. We'd have an 18 ppg scorer who gives us 8.9 assists + All NBA defense.

Is Draymonds leadership + better defense enough to make up for the greater scoring/longevity that Simmons brings? I think so, but its a difficult question imho.

Expand full comment

I mean... by that logic, trade Steph too, and Klay once he's playing 30MPG...

Expand full comment

The missiing part of the analysis is that even if Simmons is a big upgrade on Looney, the Warriors would be replacing Wiggins with, at most, a TPMLE. Even accepting that Wiggins isn't good enough to command a max contract, he isn't MLE player either.Alec Burks, for example, just got a $30/3year deal.

Expand full comment

Come on, I just sat down with my bowl of cereal and now this?

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

This is going to be fun to watch

Expand full comment