So Big Ball vs Small Ball. Small Ball wins. Easy storyline right? Not so fast.
The one part of Big Ball vs Small Ball that has always been cited in the past is the fear that the Big Guys will beat up the Small Guys resulting in injuries and wear & tear. Although there were no injuries tonight, one of the Small Guys, Jordan Poole, came up limping a couple times. He also took multiple shots to the head throughout the night.
Given that JP plays such a crucial role in the revamped Warriors' lineup, this seems to be a cause for concern, and for ongoing monitoring. This was one game. Can JP handle getting beat up like this over the course of a season?
What about any of the other smaller matchups? Curry getting beat up has been an ongoing storyline over the years. Will he take more wear & tear, if there's no POA defender to take on the opponents' top guard? What about Bjely taking a beating at the 5 by Jokic, Embiid, KAT, and others?
We won't know, but it's enough that I'm def. hesitant to declare this as an easy victory of Small Ball over Big Ball over the course of 82 games.
Luckily outside of Curry and Poole, our "smalls" aren't very small; JTA, Lee, Iggy, Moody, Wiggins, OPJ are all pretty tall and long, if not also strong like Andre and Lee. Draymond and Looney have huge wingspans and standing reach for their heights.
Lee and JTA seem especially strong for their size, which allows them to defend above their weight class. Both also have a bit of a mean streak when provoked.
Whether GSW plays big or small, JP3 would be on the floor in some role. Same with Curry, obviously. A prominent feature of both Curry's and Poole's games is attacking the rim. So, unless you're trading those guys away, I'm not seeing how that impacts whether we go big or small.
Having someone like Baze or Klay start and close at 2 next to Curry makes them bigger, and gives Curry easier defensive duties.
Similar issues exist with having all the wings play 4 and/or 5.
The issue isn’t specifically with Curry and Poole. It’s up and down the lineup, whenever the Dubs to start someone smaller in favor of speed and shooting over physicality.
Will OPJ’s injury history matter more if he’s constantly playing 4? Will Dray wear down more if he’s at the 5 for more minutes? Will Bjelly? Will JTA get more beat up at the 4 and 5?
You could just as easily argue guys coming off lower body injuries like Klay and OPJ are more likely to get injured trying to chase little fast guys around the perimeter than "playing up" a position and banging with bigger, slower guys.
Personally, I'd much rather see Poole (and Lee) getting most of the SG minutes, with Klay, Wiggs, OPJ, JTA playing up to the 3-4, than curtailing JP3's minutes due to some unproven theory that big ball is less likely to result in injuries.
Ws aren't that small anyway. Steph + Poole are miles bigger than Conley + Mitchell, who led their team to the best record in the league last season. That team had little Jordan Clarkson as well.
I was definitely feeling a little concerned about injuries especially with some of the rough plays and how things were being officiated. Felt like late in the game things got a little more balanced or maybe the Lakers ran low on gas, but there were definitely a lot of concerning plays—that Rondo vs Draymond collision, numerous cases of guys like Steph gesturing that they were whacked on a shot attempt, and one early play where AD landed on Steph after blocking his layup.
Think some of that is to be chalked up to early season jitters/adrenaline and the playoff-like competitive atmosphere of Team LeBron wanting to get revenge on Steph & crew for the preseason. In other words, I don't expect that level of physicality for most regular season games, so we just have to be able to hold up to it in a few emotionally-charged regular season games and then the playoffs.
This is a good point. The Lakers are one of the exceptions not the rule when it comes to size. But it is true that the Dubs are smaller than most of the rest of the NBA, not just the Lakers. In fact, are they actually the smallest team?
Which makes a decent amount of sense on a team-level basis because you're not going to get many minutes of guys who are outside their ideal weight. Typically "big" offense involves stuff like post-ups hinge on being able to use your body weight and strength to push the other guy out of the way, whereas "small" offense involves using acceleration and lateral movement to get around defenders, something that gets more difficult the more you weigh.
Rebounding is a mix of skills, like boxing out, where weight/strength gives an advantage, plus ones where height/length give an advantage, and even ones where reflexes and acceleration matter. Of course your body mechanics, positioning, timing, and effort make a big difference, but the bigger the size difference the harder it is to overcome or the more you have to rely on those skills to break even.
Officially listed height/weight stats are a little suspect, but the total weight of the Warriors' starting five (Steph/Poole/Wiggs/Dray/Loon) is 1028 lbs. You can get +12 lbs if you start Bjelica in place of Looney, or +18 lbs with Wiseman instead. Supposedly, 6'6" Draymond weighs 230 lbs, almost as much as 6'10" Bjelica (234 lbs). Both Dray and Moody are heavier than Wiggins or Porter who are taller. Honestly it's Wiggins' slimness at the PF position that's making our lineup lightweight. A much "heavier" lineup without adding much net height would be Steph/Lee/Iguodala/Draymond/Bjelica, which totals 1074 lbs.
For the Lakers (Russ/Baze/LBJ/AD/DAJ), it's all the way up at 1163 lbs, with them outweighing us at every position, in some cases by kind of a lot. The Suns' starting 5 (CP3/Booker/Bridges/Crowder/Ayton) is a slimmer 1075 lbs, but it's still more than ours. If we assume Sacramento's lineup (Fox/Haliburton/Barnes/Bagley/Holmes), they're at a similar 1065 lbs. The Clippers' starting lineup for now (George/Morris/Bledsoe/Jackson/Zubac) is an even 1100 lbs.
So just going off the official numbers, our starting lineup is easily the smallest in the Pacific division, and the Lakers out-size us in almost every way up and down the roster; but as a team we have plenty of options that are similar in total weight to a lot of other teams' best lineups.
To crusty quips' point exactly, I think the Warriors are (intentionally) skewed towards the middle, with a disproportionate number of players at or near the NBA average (6'6", 216 lbs as of a couple years ago); in general, the trend of "positionless basketball" seems to have been pushing all positions' averages closer to that midpoint, though I'm not sure if that's due to players being classified differently or due to the style of play making it harder for the shortest guards and slowest bigs to stay on the floor.
So many games tonight... so many not very interesting games...
Suns/Nuggets is on ESPN and should be a good one, but I can't really imagine staying up to watch more than the first half, especially with a Warriors game in the same slot on Thursday.
That last shot chart could use a label of some sort indicating that it's Russ' chart, or a phrase in the previous paragraph referencing it. I couldn't figure out whose shot chart it was until I saw the 4/13.
Is it just me or is Porter pretty big and slow? The shooting and touch look great but I think he's almost exclusively a big at this point (not a bad thing).
He doesn't seem that big, but yes slow and a bit clunky. He's coming off multiple injury years and I have no idea what he looked like before, but will bear watching to see if that's just how he moves or if he regains (?) some fluidity he might have had before.
6'8.5, 7'1.5 Wingspan, 8'10 standing reach at 19 years old. Could easily see him being a little bigger now. That's as big if not bigger than most 4's in league nowadays.
He's big — legit 6'9" by the old in-shoes measurements, with a 7'-1.5" wingspan. And rugged, with a great nose for rebounding. But yeah, a bit slow for a wing by today's standards. Definitely more of a 4 in Kerrball, but a "speed-4," not a slug like David Lee or Kevin Love.
Basically the same position as LeBron, KD, George, Kawhi, et al.
I’m not going to worry about anyone’s shot on opening night. JTA has looked a little over-revved in the pre-season. He might be pressing because he’s got more competition for minutes than the close out of last season.
OT: does anyone have recs for good sports bars in Oakland that play dubs games WITH SOUND? My work is trying to do some game watching happy hours and we're having trouble finding spots...
I haven't been since before the pandemic but Mad Oak (near Chinatown and Lake Merrit) was a good place to watch Warriors games with sound, lots of Dubs fans there too on the regular.
One of the podcasts I listen to, Warriors Huddle, I think has a standing advertisement for one in Oakland - They've moved the whole pub out into the street, so dress warm, but apparently, it's a riot.
On a side note, does anyone else find it odd that Wiseman was terrible last year according to advanced stats yet apparently the front office + countless NBA players have been counting his return as a genuine positive for the Warriors?
Perhaps the eye test is just deceiving when it comes to Wiseman since he's an athletic 7 footer who averaged double digits his rookie year, hiding his lack of effective moves/terrible defense?
I think we're starting with a blank slate, frankly. Guy had no frosh season, no training camp, no pre-season. Coaches had no idea what they had. What we know is that he's incredibly skilled and athletic for a big man. So, let's reserve judgment I'd say.
Wiseman wasn’t “supposed” to be terrible on defense especially, more like I would say he was “reasonably to be expected” to be terrible. And I don’t think that’s going to change very quickly. But it’s also reasonable to imagine that with proper development in a couple of years he could be quite good. The one thing I worry about with him as his motor. I’ve noticed that he jogs back after every offensive possession. He needs to watch our guy Juanito
Have many true 7-footers in the history of the NBA have run up and down the court like JTA, though? Hakeem and Robinson were the springiest I can remember down the floor, but they weren’t even close.
I don't think it's that odd that a young, athletic 7-footer with loads of untapped potential and a hardworking attitude is expected to make a positive contribution in his second year after flashing his potential in a rookie year that went about as bad for him in terms of injury luck and global circumstances as anyone could have imagined.
It's not a guarantee that he substantially improves but I would say it's more likely than not, given the circumstances. He has some NBA playing time under his belt, he actually got to work out with the coaching staff of the team this year, he is going to be asked to do much less than he was last year, and his body looks noticeably more NBA-ready. Also, the team around him is better and more experienced. I think it's a fairly safe bet he can be a positive this season, even if it's a modest positive.
Last year, he was literally thrown into the deep end, and he mostly sunk. There were a handful of early season highlights, but his presence was an overall negative as you would expect from a 19 year old high schooler who played 3 college games over the last 18 months or so. Even so, the flashes were tantalizing. Then, near the end of the season, shortly before his injury he flashed a full game or two where it seemed he was a positive - "putting it all together," so to speak.
Given that context, I expect him to be a positive this year in a reduced role with an extra year of learning the system, and several months of injury-limited coaching. I'm not surprised most analysts agree.
Wiseman had some encouraging flashes - both curtailed by injury. But for me, the combo of more development time, a revamped coaching staff and roster, and a refined role are all pointing towards his return being a whole lot smoother.
That said, I would suggest taking anything coming out of the FO with a hefty dose of salt. They are waging a full time PR battle as much as they are giving honest answers to questions
As far as the FO PR battle goes, I don’t see Dray, Steph and Iggy as being that motivated to blow sunshine up everyone’s fartbox with Wiseman praise, yet they’ve been very positive about his talent and development, with Steph painstakingly going through all the things that made Wiseman’s first season rough.
I didn’t expect him to tell reporters, “We should’ve traded him.” but they all seem to think he’s something special.
Yea just ignore FO/PR or take it for what it is... PR. What are they supposed to say, honestly?
"Meh, we're kind of positive on Wiseman but not really sure if he'll pan out." Then all you get are articles about how the FO has no faith in their draft pick which does nobody any good.
I think a lot of NBA players evaluate other players by moves they can do, rather than their actual contribution to winning basketball. Wiseman has really loud tools. Even I, a serious Wiseman skeptic, can admit that he made a few plays very few others can even attempt.
Also, a lot of the quiet he sucks talk doesn't get published and trickle down to us.
Yeah, I'm bullish on Wiseman long term, but I'm not at all convinced that he'll have positive impact on the court when he returns this season ... but I also expect Kerr to play to win, so if Wiseman is not being useful he'll probably get yanked pretty quick.
People were VERY skeptical when JaVale washed up on the shore as well, but he served a valuable role, one that Wiseman isn’t that far from being able to fill if he makes the right defensive reads, stays vertical and bites on fewer pumps fakes.
The FO doesn’t have much choice. They can’t cut him, and his value as a trade asset is low to horrible. So they have to do their best to make him a positive impact player, and put a brave face on while doing it.
Who are the bigs that are going to kill us because they too small (Earnie)? Seems like AD is about as scarry as it gets because he (and Giannis) can move, but I don’t think sheer size beats those guys.
I feel like the great BIG guys like Joker and Embiid are going to be good no matter who guards them, but you can make them pay on the other end with pace, ball movement and shooting.
Again, it's not about any individual matchups, it's about the wear and tear over the course of the season. I've said plenty of times that for a must win game, smallball is the optimal playing style and that's why most of the league closes games small.
They would have gotten another big man if there was one available in their price range. I expect them to use the MLE on a big man during the season unless injuries force them in another direction.
My random way too early comp for Bjelica....Magic Johnson.
Except it's the 36 year old Magic who came back to the NBA as a 260 lb PF five years after he retired due to HIV. He was super slow, but he still was just brilliant. I think that was considered an ill-fated comeback, but honestly, it was great. So much fun.
Every Bjelica pump and go looked like fun. Just continually made good to great decisions off of shockingly snazzy ball fakes. You don't want to overrate one game...but why wouldn't he get better, and more comfortable in this system the more he plays? What little games can he, Steph, and Poole create that even Dray can't do because he doesn't have the same shooting?
I know that Bjelica is a great perimeter shooter, but I didn't know he was a great passer as well. Not only am I surprised that he's a great fit for us, but the previous teams (T-Wolves, Kings, Heat) didn't use him to his full potential.
Now I know what Green meant when he said that he "didn't know he (Bjelica) could make plays like that."
Having Andre back with us is just so right. Watching him hit those crucial 3s in the first half and celebrating at the end of the game was awesome. Just need HB so we can run it back (seriously needs to happen)
We'd have to give them Wiggins and we'd have to take another $11.5 million in salary to make the trade work. Don't see how that would ever work out myself.
Oh you meant too much money in a trade? Thought you meant in a vacuum. Yeah no point in going for a trade as it currently stands. If it was Wiggs for Barnes straight up I'd want to do it but Wiggs does have that elite defense.
If Wiggs plays well enough that he can get another max it might actually make sense down the line. Get Barnes for less, reunite the original team, and leave a little more room under the 400 million of payroll/tax to pay Poole & company.
Hot take: Bjelly should start in place of Loon. Kerr said he will start 5 best players when justified Pool starting. Bjelly was better last night. Who says no? (Small sample size acknowledged)
For most nights Looney and Draymond will be fine, but against high level defenses those guys just absolutely kill us. Having 2 non-spacing, non-scoring, non-threat bigs is just too much for non Steph-Klay-KD lineups to overcome.
I'm most concerned about Loon's performance as the outlet from Steph doubles. He seemed unable to finish to many times when he was 4-5 ft from the basket. That may just be selective recall, and maybe he did better than I thought, but too often it seems like he's the outlet for a Steph double and either doesn't score, or ends up passing out to reset (probably because no one in their right mind doubles him, so passing to him instantly allows the defense to recover, and by the time he kicks it back out, D has pretty much recovered.
Great points. Agree with Bjelly as backup off the bench, that Loon has earned the starting spot, and that leading with defense has worked for Dubs. Still, if they consistently get into holes then have to dig themselves out, I think a case can be made for a change. Hole yesterday was due largely to Steph missing shots he'd normally make (and others), so I don't draw too much from yesterday's game.
Also agree with concern that given the Bjelly revelation, center minutes will be hard to come by when Wiseman returns. Good problem to have, but a problem if Wiseman can't develop into who we need him to be during the playoffs - Ayton(ish).
...and one of the great things about Kerr's style is that he's pretty good at recognizing who's having a good game and giving them the opportunity as necessary... while not overreacting. He also tends to give reliably great players who've been having a stinker of a game the chance to turn it around. That's a very difficult needle to thread and overall I think the Warriors staff does a great job of it.
I'd rather have him on the second unit most of the time because it spreads out the scoring, but ultimately it should really come down to match-ups rather than just "who starts". I think that the Dubs coaching staff sees the starters/bench distinction as somewhat antiquated since points are worth the same amount regardless of what part of the game they are scored in, and they want to avoid those dead periods where no one on the floor can score reliably when Steph is out. One of the reasons we won last night's game is that our bench vastly outscored the Lakers' bench.
To me it's better to start off strong defensively with Looney and insert Bjelly in for a change of pace. We need Bjelly to keep the offense humming for that 2nd unit more than anything. Looney will be just fine in the starting lineup especially as Draymond gets into shape and tries to be more aggressive looking for his opportunities. Remember we were playing a pretty stout defensive team.
Yeah, I'm mixed on this. Looney and Draymond playing hot potato because neither wants to shoot the ball really clogs up the offense, but hopefully they'll figure out how to coexist on offense and do more than just set screens.
Looney: 15min 3-5 fg 1-2 ft 2 oreb 4 reb 1 ast 1blk 1to...and I liked his offensive game tonight. Veteran C on the team. I feel approx. 33 potential bjackup mins (more if counting Draymond bench time) is plenty for the bjigs to bjalance and provides a lot of options for Kerr and Co.
Bjelly is abjove issues like who starts. He's happy to start, come of the bjench, whatever helps. Consummate pro. I think Looney knows what to do with the starters but would be a bit confused with the second unit. Bjelica is way more versatile.
agree. I think Bjelly's playmaking in the second unit is pretty useful. Warriors are really beyond who starts/doesn't -- it's about the whole team product.
This game was like adolescent literature in which a bunch of bigger bullies keep picking on the likable smaller kids; and then the small kids learn wisdom from some shaman and stick up for themselves and humiliate the bullies. Starring Dwight Howard as The Big Jerk
In less artistic terms, we got exactly what Duby promised us in the preview: a test of small ball vs. big ball theories, and small ball won this round. One thing I've been thinking about is the issue of style and fit for a player. Bjelica is no fluke. The guy was Euroleague MVP. Yet in the NBA no one has been blown away. Maybe he just needed a pace and space team that encourages his skills. Looks exactly like that to me, which means he can keep it up. Almost exactly the opposite: Westbrook needs the ball in his hands to initiate offense and frenzied drives. He doesn't know what to do when LeBron and AD have the ball, which is always. Ever hear Harlan scream out "OH WHAT A PICK BY WESTBROOKKK!!??" Yeah, me neither. And Iguodala further confirms this theory. His minutes were classic doesn't blow up the box score but vital contributions on defense and moving the ball on offense. Being in the right place really matters.
If you were Vogel...Whenever the camera focused on Vogel's face I saw a guy who was realizing the possibility of being the fall guy for shitty roster construction and who might be looking for work come Christmas. There was just a hint of panic around his eyes.
they've got a few critical players on the injury list. Vogel is probably just going to hold on and pray that his full squad can help out.
But yeah. Some strategic issues there when your entire guard rotation has you trying to pick the best option between Baze, Avery Bradley and Westbrook. Baze's fouling was a real problem for them, Russ can't really play defense or shoot, and Bradley is so old that his birth certificate is on a papyrus roll
BENCH Westbrook. Not out of spite but acknowledge reality. Barkley said it in the postgame: Run a big team with LeBron AD and Rondo out there first, pound it inside. Then bring in a bench unit that runs. Westbrook and no AD, run and gun.
For the Warriors? Keep doing exactly what you were doing, because we not only won but what we were doing made sense. It wasn't fluky shots. More could have gone in. I'd say get the ball out of Curry's hands earlier and have him move more, Klay style, because they were really trapping him hard. otherwise? We good.
I agree with the bench/reserve role for Westbrook. He can't hang with starting units because he lacks the bball smarts/discipline to do so on both sides of the ball. Coming in against second units, you play fast and hope Westbrook can overcome his deficiencies with pure athleticism and brute force.
I think Westbrook WITH AD makes more sense. It's Westbrook with LeBron that makes no sense at all.
Now, all of that is ignoring the fact that Rondo is a better PG in all ways except driving to the basket and laying it up or dunking it. Rondo should be getting a lot more minutes than Westbrook, but that's probably not going to happen as much as it should for obvious reasons.
3-team trade: Kyrie to PHI, Simmons to LA, and Westbrook to the Nets. Kyrie gets to play in a city with no vaccine mandate, Simmons gets to play with his best pal Lebron, and Westbrook gets an OKC reunion with Durant and Harden. Everyone wins!
Please no! That would spoil finding out the answer to one of the most interesting questions of all time: would OKC have won it all if they had just held on to Harden and traded Westbrook.
This idea moves me to tears. That would be stellar, and I would give Brooklyn a much better chance of coming together as a team, though nothing is really broken there except the forced-absence of Kyrie, who is, real-time, fighting for our rights to exist as free humans, and paying the price for it in more ways than one. PULL THE TRIGGER, NBA GM's!!!
It moves the entertainment needle, which is the one most important to me in this scenario. But as you note, Ben is a far better defender, and LA's defense looks a lot worse this year so far.
A more realistic option that gets almost the same outcome is starting Westbrook with the big boys, then sitting him down after 5 minutes and bringing him in with the second team. Bigger problem is what to do with Russ at the end of close games. He will be on the floor a bunch of times until the losses really start piling up.
THT / Bazemore/ Ariza/ Lebron/ Davis to counter the Warriors closing lineup and trying to force the game to slow down with their size like the ZBO Grizzlies days. The Lakers cannot keep up with the Warriors in and down game no matter what, even when their team clicks. I don't think they have the personnel to do so and if they try again they're getting ran out of the gym more often than not.
First game of the season and all that, but the Warriors just felt like the better team out there.
Lebron and AD are incredible, of course, but it really seemed like they stayed in the game by hitting a ton of tough contested jumpers, especially early on. We missed a lot of bunnies and open 3s. This almost could have been a blowout. Also, we don't have that boat guy back yet.
There were at least a few possessions for LA where Russ had the ball on the wing, the paint was all gummed up, and he just kind of stood there with it. Given his game/strengths, I couldn't even imagine what plays he could possibly make. Just the weirdest roster fit ever.
Watching Oubre for my fantasy right now. Still hounds ball handlers but still trash at 3s lol
Duarte looking good. 11 pts 3-4 and 2-2 from 3 in the first quarter
Duarte may be the steal of the draft!
Check back in 3 years.
All the win now guys have been doing win now things (including preseason) except Kispert.
So Big Ball vs Small Ball. Small Ball wins. Easy storyline right? Not so fast.
The one part of Big Ball vs Small Ball that has always been cited in the past is the fear that the Big Guys will beat up the Small Guys resulting in injuries and wear & tear. Although there were no injuries tonight, one of the Small Guys, Jordan Poole, came up limping a couple times. He also took multiple shots to the head throughout the night.
Given that JP plays such a crucial role in the revamped Warriors' lineup, this seems to be a cause for concern, and for ongoing monitoring. This was one game. Can JP handle getting beat up like this over the course of a season?
What about any of the other smaller matchups? Curry getting beat up has been an ongoing storyline over the years. Will he take more wear & tear, if there's no POA defender to take on the opponents' top guard? What about Bjely taking a beating at the 5 by Jokic, Embiid, KAT, and others?
We won't know, but it's enough that I'm def. hesitant to declare this as an easy victory of Small Ball over Big Ball over the course of 82 games.
The Lakers are particularly tough up front. Most of the teams we face are not going to play like they do. It won't be a gauntlet every night.
Anthony Davis comes up limping like 12 times a game.
Luckily outside of Curry and Poole, our "smalls" aren't very small; JTA, Lee, Iggy, Moody, Wiggins, OPJ are all pretty tall and long, if not also strong like Andre and Lee. Draymond and Looney have huge wingspans and standing reach for their heights.
Lee and JTA seem especially strong for their size, which allows them to defend above their weight class. Both also have a bit of a mean streak when provoked.
Whether GSW plays big or small, JP3 would be on the floor in some role. Same with Curry, obviously. A prominent feature of both Curry's and Poole's games is attacking the rim. So, unless you're trading those guys away, I'm not seeing how that impacts whether we go big or small.
JP3 for Tacko Fall works in the trade machine.
Lol
And thinking he's the first person to come up with that... smh now I'm mad at Fitz for shit he hasn't even done yet
Thanks I hate it
Having someone like Baze or Klay start and close at 2 next to Curry makes them bigger, and gives Curry easier defensive duties.
Similar issues exist with having all the wings play 4 and/or 5.
The issue isn’t specifically with Curry and Poole. It’s up and down the lineup, whenever the Dubs to start someone smaller in favor of speed and shooting over physicality.
Will OPJ’s injury history matter more if he’s constantly playing 4? Will Dray wear down more if he’s at the 5 for more minutes? Will Bjelly? Will JTA get more beat up at the 4 and 5?
You could just as easily argue guys coming off lower body injuries like Klay and OPJ are more likely to get injured trying to chase little fast guys around the perimeter than "playing up" a position and banging with bigger, slower guys.
Personally, I'd much rather see Poole (and Lee) getting most of the SG minutes, with Klay, Wiggs, OPJ, JTA playing up to the 3-4, than curtailing JP3's minutes due to some unproven theory that big ball is less likely to result in injuries.
Ws aren't that small anyway. Steph + Poole are miles bigger than Conley + Mitchell, who led their team to the best record in the league last season. That team had little Jordan Clarkson as well.
Donovan Mitchell has a 6'10 wingspan. He's not small (though he's still bad defensively).
Have you see this pic of Steph and Westbrook from last season? It’s pretty amazing how Steph his physique has grown.
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/russell-westbrook-of-the-washington-wizards-and-stephen-news-photo/1232730954
I was definitely feeling a little concerned about injuries especially with some of the rough plays and how things were being officiated. Felt like late in the game things got a little more balanced or maybe the Lakers ran low on gas, but there were definitely a lot of concerning plays—that Rondo vs Draymond collision, numerous cases of guys like Steph gesturing that they were whacked on a shot attempt, and one early play where AD landed on Steph after blocking his layup.
Think some of that is to be chalked up to early season jitters/adrenaline and the playoff-like competitive atmosphere of Team LeBron wanting to get revenge on Steph & crew for the preseason. In other words, I don't expect that level of physicality for most regular season games, so we just have to be able to hold up to it in a few emotionally-charged regular season games and then the playoffs.
This is a good point. The Lakers are one of the exceptions not the rule when it comes to size. But it is true that the Dubs are smaller than most of the rest of the NBA, not just the Lakers. In fact, are they actually the smallest team?
Are you judging by height or length? If it's the latter then I think they are still among the longest teams in the league.
538 made a pretty good argument that you should actually judge size by *weight*, weighted on a per-minute basis for the players on the floor:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-rockets-may-be-short-but-theyre-not-exactly-small/
Which makes a decent amount of sense on a team-level basis because you're not going to get many minutes of guys who are outside their ideal weight. Typically "big" offense involves stuff like post-ups hinge on being able to use your body weight and strength to push the other guy out of the way, whereas "small" offense involves using acceleration and lateral movement to get around defenders, something that gets more difficult the more you weigh.
Rebounding is a mix of skills, like boxing out, where weight/strength gives an advantage, plus ones where height/length give an advantage, and even ones where reflexes and acceleration matter. Of course your body mechanics, positioning, timing, and effort make a big difference, but the bigger the size difference the harder it is to overcome or the more you have to rely on those skills to break even.
Officially listed height/weight stats are a little suspect, but the total weight of the Warriors' starting five (Steph/Poole/Wiggs/Dray/Loon) is 1028 lbs. You can get +12 lbs if you start Bjelica in place of Looney, or +18 lbs with Wiseman instead. Supposedly, 6'6" Draymond weighs 230 lbs, almost as much as 6'10" Bjelica (234 lbs). Both Dray and Moody are heavier than Wiggins or Porter who are taller. Honestly it's Wiggins' slimness at the PF position that's making our lineup lightweight. A much "heavier" lineup without adding much net height would be Steph/Lee/Iguodala/Draymond/Bjelica, which totals 1074 lbs.
For the Lakers (Russ/Baze/LBJ/AD/DAJ), it's all the way up at 1163 lbs, with them outweighing us at every position, in some cases by kind of a lot. The Suns' starting 5 (CP3/Booker/Bridges/Crowder/Ayton) is a slimmer 1075 lbs, but it's still more than ours. If we assume Sacramento's lineup (Fox/Haliburton/Barnes/Bagley/Holmes), they're at a similar 1065 lbs. The Clippers' starting lineup for now (George/Morris/Bledsoe/Jackson/Zubac) is an even 1100 lbs.
So just going off the official numbers, our starting lineup is easily the smallest in the Pacific division, and the Lakers out-size us in almost every way up and down the roster; but as a team we have plenty of options that are similar in total weight to a lot of other teams' best lineups.
To crusty quips' point exactly, I think the Warriors are (intentionally) skewed towards the middle, with a disproportionate number of players at or near the NBA average (6'6", 216 lbs as of a couple years ago); in general, the trend of "positionless basketball" seems to have been pushing all positions' averages closer to that midpoint, though I'm not sure if that's due to players being classified differently or due to the style of play making it harder for the shortest guards and slowest bigs to stay on the floor.
(Source: https://www.thehoopsgeek.com/average-nba-height/ )
Thanks for this. Fascinating and interesting. I'd love to see the same analysis by wingspan, as I know the Dubs prioritize it.
So many games tonight... so many not very interesting games...
Suns/Nuggets is on ESPN and should be a good one, but I can't really imagine staying up to watch more than the first half, especially with a Warriors game in the same slot on Thursday.
Knicks - Celtics is the only game i'm goin to see tonight
That last shot chart could use a label of some sort indicating that it's Russ' chart, or a phrase in the previous paragraph referencing it. I couldn't figure out whose shot chart it was until I saw the 4/13.
DNHQ: Confusing Fans Since 1975
Is it just me or is Porter pretty big and slow? The shooting and touch look great but I think he's almost exclusively a big at this point (not a bad thing).
Hot take: He's a playoff C now.
He doesn't seem that big, but yes slow and a bit clunky. He's coming off multiple injury years and I have no idea what he looked like before, but will bear watching to see if that's just how he moves or if he regains (?) some fluidity he might have had before.
6'8.5, 7'1.5 Wingspan, 8'10 standing reach at 19 years old. Could easily see him being a little bigger now. That's as big if not bigger than most 4's in league nowadays.
He's big — legit 6'9" by the old in-shoes measurements, with a 7'-1.5" wingspan. And rugged, with a great nose for rebounding. But yeah, a bit slow for a wing by today's standards. Definitely more of a 4 in Kerrball, but a "speed-4," not a slug like David Lee or Kevin Love.
Basically the same position as LeBron, KD, George, Kawhi, et al.
We posted our comment at same time lmao.
Also, JTA's shot hasn't looked the same this year.
I’m not going to worry about anyone’s shot on opening night. JTA has looked a little over-revved in the pre-season. He might be pressing because he’s got more competition for minutes than the close out of last season.
Was he not heavily relied upon for defense last year?
OT: does anyone have recs for good sports bars in Oakland that play dubs games WITH SOUND? My work is trying to do some game watching happy hours and we're having trouble finding spots...
I haven't been since before the pandemic but Mad Oak (near Chinatown and Lake Merrit) was a good place to watch Warriors games with sound, lots of Dubs fans there too on the regular.
One of the podcasts I listen to, Warriors Huddle, I think has a standing advertisement for one in Oakland - They've moved the whole pub out into the street, so dress warm, but apparently, it's a riot.
On a side note, does anyone else find it odd that Wiseman was terrible last year according to advanced stats yet apparently the front office + countless NBA players have been counting his return as a genuine positive for the Warriors?
Perhaps the eye test is just deceiving when it comes to Wiseman since he's an athletic 7 footer who averaged double digits his rookie year, hiding his lack of effective moves/terrible defense?
The people around the organization wouldn't exactly say he's a scrub though.
And players have been proven to be terrible judges of other players so many times that putting too much stock into that is not the best idea.
I think we're starting with a blank slate, frankly. Guy had no frosh season, no training camp, no pre-season. Coaches had no idea what they had. What we know is that he's incredibly skilled and athletic for a big man. So, let's reserve judgment I'd say.
I just want to see if he'll have any sort of impact in games like yesterday where our small guys had to work so hard
Wiseman wasn’t “supposed” to be terrible on defense especially, more like I would say he was “reasonably to be expected” to be terrible. And I don’t think that’s going to change very quickly. But it’s also reasonable to imagine that with proper development in a couple of years he could be quite good. The one thing I worry about with him as his motor. I’ve noticed that he jogs back after every offensive possession. He needs to watch our guy Juanito
Have many true 7-footers in the history of the NBA have run up and down the court like JTA, though? Hakeem and Robinson were the springiest I can remember down the floor, but they weren’t even close.
Wilt was pretty springy. Also, Hakeem is one of my favorite players of all time, my personal goat at the Center position.
Or Moody. That guy hustles like crazy and never stops.
I don't think it's that odd that a young, athletic 7-footer with loads of untapped potential and a hardworking attitude is expected to make a positive contribution in his second year after flashing his potential in a rookie year that went about as bad for him in terms of injury luck and global circumstances as anyone could have imagined.
It's not a guarantee that he substantially improves but I would say it's more likely than not, given the circumstances. He has some NBA playing time under his belt, he actually got to work out with the coaching staff of the team this year, he is going to be asked to do much less than he was last year, and his body looks noticeably more NBA-ready. Also, the team around him is better and more experienced. I think it's a fairly safe bet he can be a positive this season, even if it's a modest positive.
Already great points by Duby and Being down below. I'm just going to add this since the topic of the OP is "stats bad, why so positive?"
First 39 games as a 19 year old. One is Giannis and one is Wiseman.
MP / TS% / ORTG / DRTG
23.7 / .540 / 98 / 110
21.4 / .552 / 98 / 113
First 39 games of Giannis' second year.
27.7 / .554 / 104 / 102
This line. I am in it.
Last year, he was literally thrown into the deep end, and he mostly sunk. There were a handful of early season highlights, but his presence was an overall negative as you would expect from a 19 year old high schooler who played 3 college games over the last 18 months or so. Even so, the flashes were tantalizing. Then, near the end of the season, shortly before his injury he flashed a full game or two where it seemed he was a positive - "putting it all together," so to speak.
Given that context, I expect him to be a positive this year in a reduced role with an extra year of learning the system, and several months of injury-limited coaching. I'm not surprised most analysts agree.
this is where I'm at too.
Wiseman had some encouraging flashes - both curtailed by injury. But for me, the combo of more development time, a revamped coaching staff and roster, and a refined role are all pointing towards his return being a whole lot smoother.
That said, I would suggest taking anything coming out of the FO with a hefty dose of salt. They are waging a full time PR battle as much as they are giving honest answers to questions
As far as the FO PR battle goes, I don’t see Dray, Steph and Iggy as being that motivated to blow sunshine up everyone’s fartbox with Wiseman praise, yet they’ve been very positive about his talent and development, with Steph painstakingly going through all the things that made Wiseman’s first season rough.
I didn’t expect him to tell reporters, “We should’ve traded him.” but they all seem to think he’s something special.
Yea just ignore FO/PR or take it for what it is... PR. What are they supposed to say, honestly?
"Meh, we're kind of positive on Wiseman but not really sure if he'll pan out." Then all you get are articles about how the FO has no faith in their draft pick which does nobody any good.
But the vets seem high on him. That’s more meaningful.
I think a lot of NBA players evaluate other players by moves they can do, rather than their actual contribution to winning basketball. Wiseman has really loud tools. Even I, a serious Wiseman skeptic, can admit that he made a few plays very few others can even attempt.
Also, a lot of the quiet he sucks talk doesn't get published and trickle down to us.
Carmelo is a great example of the capability vs production divide.
Yeah, I'm bullish on Wiseman long term, but I'm not at all convinced that he'll have positive impact on the court when he returns this season ... but I also expect Kerr to play to win, so if Wiseman is not being useful he'll probably get yanked pretty quick.
People were VERY skeptical when JaVale washed up on the shore as well, but he served a valuable role, one that Wiseman isn’t that far from being able to fill if he makes the right defensive reads, stays vertical and bites on fewer pumps fakes.
Heh, I'll take that W. I was always a fan of Javale and was confused why he wasn't in the NBA.
The FO doesn’t have much choice. They can’t cut him, and his value as a trade asset is low to horrible. So they have to do their best to make him a positive impact player, and put a brave face on while doing it.
The choice was to get another big man or not. Wiseman kinda has to be ready this season the way the current roster is constructed imo.
Who are the bigs that are going to kill us because they too small (Earnie)? Seems like AD is about as scarry as it gets because he (and Giannis) can move, but I don’t think sheer size beats those guys.
I feel like the great BIG guys like Joker and Embiid are going to be good no matter who guards them, but you can make them pay on the other end with pace, ball movement and shooting.
Again, it's not about any individual matchups, it's about the wear and tear over the course of the season. I've said plenty of times that for a must win game, smallball is the optimal playing style and that's why most of the league closes games small.
They would have gotten another big man if there was one available in their price range. I expect them to use the MLE on a big man during the season unless injuries force them in another direction.
Clippers brought Isaiah Hartenstein in on a training camp deal.
But they also might add a big man halfway through the season, too early to say.
My random way too early comp for Bjelica....Magic Johnson.
Except it's the 36 year old Magic who came back to the NBA as a 260 lb PF five years after he retired due to HIV. He was super slow, but he still was just brilliant. I think that was considered an ill-fated comeback, but honestly, it was great. So much fun.
Every Bjelica pump and go looked like fun. Just continually made good to great decisions off of shockingly snazzy ball fakes. You don't want to overrate one game...but why wouldn't he get better, and more comfortable in this system the more he plays? What little games can he, Steph, and Poole create that even Dray can't do because he doesn't have the same shooting?
With an extra 9 points of 3p%!
Hmm, I seem to a recall a big PG out of MIchigan State who already took that comp…?
He's less snazzy and not as slow.
I know that Bjelica is a great perimeter shooter, but I didn't know he was a great passer as well. Not only am I surprised that he's a great fit for us, but the previous teams (T-Wolves, Kings, Heat) didn't use him to his full potential.
Now I know what Green meant when he said that he "didn't know he (Bjelica) could make plays like that."
https://www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-news/1256949/draymond-green-impressed-with-nemanja-bjelica-i-didnt-know-he-could-make-plays-like-that/
Proposed Warriors 2021-22 motto from a poster on the Fastbreak blog:
“They’re real … and they’re spectacular.”
That's great. Teri Hatcher...
Having Andre back with us is just so right. Watching him hit those crucial 3s in the first half and celebrating at the end of the game was awesome. Just need HB so we can run it back (seriously needs to happen)
This comment is so good I want it to be like on Around the Horn where I can just give as many points (likes) as I want.
Well, other than the HB part. HB is fine but he makes too much money.
I don't think so. 20m puts him at 54th highest. 16-6-3 on .497/.391/.830 shooting last year
We'd have to give them Wiggins and we'd have to take another $11.5 million in salary to make the trade work. Don't see how that would ever work out myself.
Oh you meant too much money in a trade? Thought you meant in a vacuum. Yeah no point in going for a trade as it currently stands. If it was Wiggs for Barnes straight up I'd want to do it but Wiggs does have that elite defense.
If Wiggs plays well enough that he can get another max it might actually make sense down the line. Get Barnes for less, reunite the original team, and leave a little more room under the 400 million of payroll/tax to pay Poole & company.
bwahahahahahah... That was a good one. Made me tear up.
I doubt Wiggins gets another max
Wish we had more shots of the bench reaction. It was fun to see Moody witness this for the first time
I've always felt that the NBA should mandate that teams shoot on the basket closer to their bench in the second half. We want to see the reactions.
I want Javale back
Lakers are so old that their medical staff still uses bloodletting.
Bang! Bang!
Head athletic trainer: Theodoric of York
They get their medical info from Galen
"Paging medieval barber to the locker room."
Hot take: Bjelly should start in place of Loon. Kerr said he will start 5 best players when justified Pool starting. Bjelly was better last night. Who says no? (Small sample size acknowledged)
For most nights Looney and Draymond will be fine, but against high level defenses those guys just absolutely kill us. Having 2 non-spacing, non-scoring, non-threat bigs is just too much for non Steph-Klay-KD lineups to overcome.
I'm most concerned about Loon's performance as the outlet from Steph doubles. He seemed unable to finish to many times when he was 4-5 ft from the basket. That may just be selective recall, and maybe he did better than I thought, but too often it seems like he's the outlet for a Steph double and either doesn't score, or ends up passing out to reset (probably because no one in their right mind doubles him, so passing to him instantly allows the defense to recover, and by the time he kicks it back out, D has pretty much recovered.
Great points. Agree with Bjelly as backup off the bench, that Loon has earned the starting spot, and that leading with defense has worked for Dubs. Still, if they consistently get into holes then have to dig themselves out, I think a case can be made for a change. Hole yesterday was due largely to Steph missing shots he'd normally make (and others), so I don't draw too much from yesterday's game.
Also agree with concern that given the Bjelly revelation, center minutes will be hard to come by when Wiseman returns. Good problem to have, but a problem if Wiseman can't develop into who we need him to be during the playoffs - Ayton(ish).
I’ve come to think that who starts is far less important than who finishes in close games.
...and one of the great things about Kerr's style is that he's pretty good at recognizing who's having a good game and giving them the opportunity as necessary... while not overreacting. He also tends to give reliably great players who've been having a stinker of a game the chance to turn it around. That's a very difficult needle to thread and overall I think the Warriors staff does a great job of it.
This comment gave me painful flashbacks to Oubre's start of last season.
No. Loon has earned the starting job.
MVPjelica
Most Impjroved Pjlayer?
With Curry-Poole starting, I think you want to load up on defense in the front.
For the playoff push though, and maybe even the playoff starters, Curry-Klay-Wiggins-Green-Bjelica sounds intriguing.
I want to see a closing lineup of Curry-Poole-Klay-Green-Bjelica
I'd rather have him on the second unit most of the time because it spreads out the scoring, but ultimately it should really come down to match-ups rather than just "who starts". I think that the Dubs coaching staff sees the starters/bench distinction as somewhat antiquated since points are worth the same amount regardless of what part of the game they are scored in, and they want to avoid those dead periods where no one on the floor can score reliably when Steph is out. One of the reasons we won last night's game is that our bench vastly outscored the Lakers' bench.
To me it's better to start off strong defensively with Looney and insert Bjelly in for a change of pace. We need Bjelly to keep the offense humming for that 2nd unit more than anything. Looney will be just fine in the starting lineup especially as Draymond gets into shape and tries to be more aggressive looking for his opportunities. Remember we were playing a pretty stout defensive team.
Yeah, I'm mixed on this. Looney and Draymond playing hot potato because neither wants to shoot the ball really clogs up the offense, but hopefully they'll figure out how to coexist on offense and do more than just set screens.
Looney: 15min 3-5 fg 1-2 ft 2 oreb 4 reb 1 ast 1blk 1to...and I liked his offensive game tonight. Veteran C on the team. I feel approx. 33 potential bjackup mins (more if counting Draymond bench time) is plenty for the bjigs to bjalance and provides a lot of options for Kerr and Co.
This is a legit concern
Bjelly is abjove issues like who starts. He's happy to start, come of the bjench, whatever helps. Consummate pro. I think Looney knows what to do with the starters but would be a bit confused with the second unit. Bjelica is way more versatile.
Definitely, having a bjench is an upgrade over an ordinary "bench."
We Playing Bjas-ket-ball!!
WGBjC!
agree. I think Bjelly's playmaking in the second unit is pretty useful. Warriors are really beyond who starts/doesn't -- it's about the whole team product.
This game was like adolescent literature in which a bunch of bigger bullies keep picking on the likable smaller kids; and then the small kids learn wisdom from some shaman and stick up for themselves and humiliate the bullies. Starring Dwight Howard as The Big Jerk
In less artistic terms, we got exactly what Duby promised us in the preview: a test of small ball vs. big ball theories, and small ball won this round. One thing I've been thinking about is the issue of style and fit for a player. Bjelica is no fluke. The guy was Euroleague MVP. Yet in the NBA no one has been blown away. Maybe he just needed a pace and space team that encourages his skills. Looks exactly like that to me, which means he can keep it up. Almost exactly the opposite: Westbrook needs the ball in his hands to initiate offense and frenzied drives. He doesn't know what to do when LeBron and AD have the ball, which is always. Ever hear Harlan scream out "OH WHAT A PICK BY WESTBROOKKK!!??" Yeah, me neither. And Iguodala further confirms this theory. His minutes were classic doesn't blow up the box score but vital contributions on defense and moving the ball on offense. Being in the right place really matters.
If you're Vogel how do you adjust so that Lakers beat the Warriors next game? And if you're Kerr how do you adjust to their adjustment?
If you were Vogel...Whenever the camera focused on Vogel's face I saw a guy who was realizing the possibility of being the fall guy for shitty roster construction and who might be looking for work come Christmas. There was just a hint of panic around his eyes.
He'd land on his feet. The Ws would be glad to add him as a defensive assistant. There's still room on the bench -- further down, of course.
Exactly. More than just a hint. Loved the camera on him after the Steph > Dray > Bjelly > Wiggins 3-pointer.
they've got a few critical players on the injury list. Vogel is probably just going to hold on and pray that his full squad can help out.
But yeah. Some strategic issues there when your entire guard rotation has you trying to pick the best option between Baze, Avery Bradley and Westbrook. Baze's fouling was a real problem for them, Russ can't really play defense or shoot, and Bradley is so old that his birth certificate is on a papyrus roll
But AB managed to make the 3s that he never could when he was with the Dubs.
I noted that as well. I think I actually said out loud, "If you'd have done that in preseason, you might be a Warrior!"
Give Russ the Rock!!!
Marriage proposal? A bit of both?
What do you call a wedding on Alcatraz? Giving them the rock on The Rock.
Closely followed by "I gave her the rock, she gave me the finger"
I'll see myself out.
BENCH Westbrook. Not out of spite but acknowledge reality. Barkley said it in the postgame: Run a big team with LeBron AD and Rondo out there first, pound it inside. Then bring in a bench unit that runs. Westbrook and no AD, run and gun.
For the Warriors? Keep doing exactly what you were doing, because we not only won but what we were doing made sense. It wasn't fluky shots. More could have gone in. I'd say get the ball out of Curry's hands earlier and have him move more, Klay style, because they were really trapping him hard. otherwise? We good.
Hilarious if true to have Westbrook treated like Wiseman hahah
They can't play with the two best players on their teams because he mucks it up
I agree with the bench/reserve role for Westbrook. He can't hang with starting units because he lacks the bball smarts/discipline to do so on both sides of the ball. Coming in against second units, you play fast and hope Westbrook can overcome his deficiencies with pure athleticism and brute force.
But the great thing is that to save face [and because Westbrook will refuse], they won't do it.
They'll do what LeBron wants them to do, and they'll like it.
I think Westbrook WITH AD makes more sense. It's Westbrook with LeBron that makes no sense at all.
Now, all of that is ignoring the fact that Rondo is a better PG in all ways except driving to the basket and laying it up or dunking it. Rondo should be getting a lot more minutes than Westbrook, but that's probably not going to happen as much as it should for obvious reasons.
3-team trade: Kyrie to PHI, Simmons to LA, and Westbrook to the Nets. Kyrie gets to play in a city with no vaccine mandate, Simmons gets to play with his best pal Lebron, and Westbrook gets an OKC reunion with Durant and Harden. Everyone wins!
Please no! That would spoil finding out the answer to one of the most interesting questions of all time: would OKC have won it all if they had just held on to Harden and traded Westbrook.
This idea moves me to tears. That would be stellar, and I would give Brooklyn a much better chance of coming together as a team, though nothing is really broken there except the forced-absence of Kyrie, who is, real-time, fighting for our rights to exist as free humans, and paying the price for it in more ways than one. PULL THE TRIGGER, NBA GM's!!!
I can't even imagine how OKC fans would feel about this
Simmons doesn't really make more sense on LA than Westbrook does, so not seeing how that moves the needle.
It moves the entertainment needle, which is the one most important to me in this scenario. But as you note, Ben is a far better defender, and LA's defense looks a lot worse this year so far.
(He's at least a better defender, but still very much wants to be the hub on offense)
A more realistic option that gets almost the same outcome is starting Westbrook with the big boys, then sitting him down after 5 minutes and bringing him in with the second team. Bigger problem is what to do with Russ at the end of close games. He will be on the floor a bunch of times until the losses really start piling up.
This is the Curry-Poole rotation, except with Lebron-Russ and
THT / Bazemore/ Ariza/ Lebron/ Davis to counter the Warriors closing lineup and trying to force the game to slow down with their size like the ZBO Grizzlies days. The Lakers cannot keep up with the Warriors in and down game no matter what, even when their team clicks. I don't think they have the personnel to do so and if they try again they're getting ran out of the gym more often than not.
First game of the season and all that, but the Warriors just felt like the better team out there.
Lebron and AD are incredible, of course, but it really seemed like they stayed in the game by hitting a ton of tough contested jumpers, especially early on. We missed a lot of bunnies and open 3s. This almost could have been a blowout. Also, we don't have that boat guy back yet.
There were at least a few possessions for LA where Russ had the ball on the wing, the paint was all gummed up, and he just kind of stood there with it. Given his game/strengths, I couldn't even imagine what plays he could possibly make. Just the weirdest roster fit ever.
Our boat guy >>>> their (banana) boat guys