• A ~20% chance of doing better than they did (including a ~10% chance at thrillsville)
• A ~30% chance of doing what they did
• A ~50% of doing worse than they did (including a ~30% chance of disaster)
Kinda surprised people weren't more excited about last night's result when it happened. I guess some had kinda sorta started to buy the "#1 and #4!!!" fantasies we were having fun with?
Yea, thought that was weird too. I honestly was prepared to just have at least our 14th pick. I Don't really understand how the odds work in the draft lottery but they didn't look very favorable to me
More and more mocks now seem to be confirming the idea that it’s a four player draft (or secondarily, a 9-10 player draft), not the “five-player draft” the pundit echo chamber presumed. Remember all the handwringing and weeping by guys like Slater and Strauss when the Wolves rose from #29-30 to #25? All that did for the Warriors was:
1. Increase the chances of the pick conveying from 59.9% to 72.4%
2. Push the “default pick” if it did convey from #5 to #7 (while not really changing the chances of #4).
In the view of Strauss and Slater — despite the *obvious benefit of increasing our chances of keeping the Minny pick* (which, lo, has now conveyed) — we were supposed to be rending our garments at this development, because, DOMG, there went our chances at landing Jonathan Kuminga!!! Well, lo and behold: according to Hollinger, Kuminga is a weaker prospect than Barnes, Wagner, and Sengun. Yeah, just one opinion, but with writers now going off information rather than just parroting “five player draft,” I suspect we’ll increasingly see how silly it was to get our undies in a bunch over the presumed lost chance of getting Kuminga. Heck … we may even end up with Kuminga at #7.
Meanwhile, the two teams who leapfrogged MIN into the #29-30 slots (DET and HOU) have both jumped into the top 3 range — where we would have lost the pick.
Total fail by Strauss and Slater, whom I normally enjoy reading and agree with.
Like Wagner a lot as a stretch 4, doubt he can play the 3 (to the extent there are positions any more) as teams move SG’s into the 3 position. Fits the Dub offense well assuming his 3 ball works.
I wonder if that opens up a trade up. Maybe the Magic love Kuming, think they can get him at 7, and the Warriors go get Barnes at 5. Or the Cavs like Kuminga and want to trade out of 3 and the Warriors go to 3 for Suggs or
I'm 100% OK with the Warriors getting Kuminga, too.
Yeah, I have a strong feeling Kuminga does not get drafted in the top 5. Would not want the Warriors to draft him at 7 either if he makes it there though.
Pretty excited. Especially in terms of the number of promising 3&D (ie, almost a requirement to be truly playable) prospects that can still be available at the 14th pick.
In terms of what would help us win next year, it seems like a realistically obtainable need is scoring help for the bench units, esp when Klay needs more time to recover, and Curry sits. Those wildcard play-in games had really painful offense to watch when Curry sat. The scoring can be helped by either adding a scorer, or a defense-minded facilitator who can really help activate Wiseman and Poole on offense. I’m kind of a fan of this latter approach: JTA+draftee as defense and facilitators, wiseman, Poole, lee as offense seems like a decent bench (though still a far cry from when we used to have West and Livingston and Iguodala on the bench, sheesh!). If we can get a good free agent vet, then in the draft we’d just slightly prioritize what the vet doesn’t do. BTW, how do people feel about the 7th pick being better than Bazemore or Patty Mills? Otherwise replacing bazemore with draftee means we’ve downgraded in terms of roster potential from last year (Ie not counting Klay against last year’s team). Are there *playable* draft picks at the 7/14 with more offensive potential than wiseman and Poole? Trying to calibrate against what we have already.
The reach of course (whether draft or trade) is to get a player who’s starting caliber, or more importantly game-closing-small-ball caliber. In practice this means someone better than Poole/Lee who takes Looney’s spot when we need more offense and speed. Seems plausible.
Lots of ways to improve, but can we unambiguously break out of the open Western Conference?
Looks like my boy Jared Butler grew an inch -- 6'3.75" in shoes with a 6'4" wingspan. Somehow has a higher standing reach than Ayo Dosunmu who's 6'5" in shoes with a 6'10.25" wingspan. Sure wouldn't mind him at 14.
Rewatching this video... If Zaire Williams is 6'10 idk if I'm passing up on him ESPECIALLY if he's there at 14 which I doubt, 6'10 good defender with shooting playmaking ability in our offense? Maybe we can move up from 14 a little bit and get him and Barnes which would be ridiculous
I think a 1-4 of Steph, Klay, Wiggs and Dray is easily the core of a 50+ win NBA contender with added bonus of a mostly homegrown bench and stable of youngsters ready to keep the success going on into the future.
Yeah, I’m not advocating a trade — just noting how awesome that core would be. Paul George randomly bricking two free throws doesn’t change the fact that he’s a fantastic player.
I know this draft is good and all but I have a hard time believing we'll bring in 2 rookies on top of the young guys we already have coming into next year (I still consider Poole and Paschall as inexperienced players for now). Feeling like Bob will package the 2 picks to move up if anyone is willing to bite or include #14 in some trade for a vet.
If they came out of the draft with Barnes and Kispert, I think those are guys that can help now and be a part next core with Poole, Wigs, Wiseman and JTA. With Smile and Oubre likely gone, and Mannion and Mulder fungible, there’s still room on the roster to add some veteran presence. Patty Mills on MLE and Chris’s and Bazemore on vet mins and let’s do this.
I dunno, I think people might be overstating how much Barnes can help now. The lack of shooting ability is a killer given Draymond's presence, he could be a tricky fit.
Right, but I think people are overstating how capable a 19 year old is of being Draymond's backup. Especially since it's expected that Wiseman is going to be a backup too, you'd probably want a more experienced big like JTA next to him. If they traded Wiseman, Barnes/JTA could work a bit better imo.
Yup, and with Poole as a Curry backup, Lee/Jessup as a Klay backup and JTA as a Wiggs backup, it begins to look like our B team can do a few of the things our A team can do.
Don't think JTA can be a small forward unless he improves his 3 point volume while maintaining a good percentage. That's on the table but he'll have to show it next season, for all we know this season was a fluke given his previous shooting struggles. He's a great fit for Draymond's backup though.
Too far away … meaning what? Cut him? Don’t draft him in the first place? Fact is most rookies will be a ways from contributing. But are you suggesting we just hand back the draft picks?
But we keep ignoring obvious which that the dubs current problem is that they are in cap hell and have no way to bring in veteran help absent a trade of a one of their top 4 players. That means Wigs, since you can’t or won’t trade the other 3. A trade of Wigs while throwing in a draft pick is fine in theory, but for who?
HOU Mobley, paired with Christian Wood, awesome front line
CLE Suggs. Can't see them reaching outside of Tier 1. Garland, Sexton, Suggs nice
TOR J Green They are doing cartwheels.
ORL Kuminga, because they have slow rebuild, top Tier isn't broken.
OKC Keon Johnson or Moody to pair with SGA on the wing
GSW Scottie Barnes. Who else. He was designed in a secret lab under Chase Center
ORL Keon Johnson or Moody, whoever OKC doesn't take, to pair with Kuminga. Sweet
SAC Jalen Johnson, getting ready to move off Bagley
NOP Jaden Springer, backcourt depth with handles
CHA Day'ron Sharpe, first real reach of the draft as they look for a future, Zeller on the move
SAS Alperen Sengun, Pop is gonna Pop
IND Franz Wagner, who else? classic Indy pick, great middle of the road player
GSW Left on the Board: Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler (draft day slide for both as late adjustment to their recent rise) James Bouknight (potential steal), Josh Giddy (do our homework boom or bust), Kispert (right handed Jessup), Zaire Williams (in our backyard, do we have the inside knowledge) Not a bad batch of players to choose from at 14
Think it's highly unlikely. The two picks come in with around $8 - 9 million in salary. Can't get a great vet for that, even when adding other salaries. Don't see trading up - who's going to give up a top 5 for a couple of more chancy prospects?
Don't think any team is going to break that Top Tier, unless it's OKC because they could throw a boatload of picks into it. Otherwise, pretty sure top 5 teams will draft in order and Top Tier will clear after the 5th pick, and the draft really starts at 6.
Obviously I’d dreamed for more, but 7 is better than a push for us- there were better than even odds that it either wouldn’t convey or be lower- and plenty good to make a big difference for the franchise, so I’m a happy camper.
#7 is actually considerably better than #8 let alone lower than that, given that at least two and possibly three of Kuminga, Barnes, Johnson or Wagner will likely be there. I’d love to get Moody as well, and at 14 it seems at least plausible. Better news is this feels like enough of a haul to potentially go out and get LaVine, who’s probably the most feasible fit out there. Maybe even Simmons, though that’s a lot less likely. We’ll see.
I want moody over Barnes forsure however I could see the thunder taking moody since they already have poku as a non shooting project. 14 there's a lot of options but imo 7 has to be either moody, Barnes or kuminga if he falls
Dubs went into last night with...
• A ~20% chance of doing better than they did (including a ~10% chance at thrillsville)
• A ~30% chance of doing what they did
• A ~50% of doing worse than they did (including a ~30% chance of disaster)
Kinda surprised people weren't more excited about last night's result when it happened. I guess some had kinda sorta started to buy the "#1 and #4!!!" fantasies we were having fun with?
Yea, thought that was weird too. I honestly was prepared to just have at least our 14th pick. I Don't really understand how the odds work in the draft lottery but they didn't look very favorable to me
Yeah, we beat the odds in a meaningful way.
John Hollinger mock: 1. Cunningham, 2. Mobley, 3. Barnes (!!) 4. Sengun (!!!), 5. Green, 6. Suggs, 7. Wagner, 8. Kuminga, 9. Johnson.
More and more mocks now seem to be confirming the idea that it’s a four player draft (or secondarily, a 9-10 player draft), not the “five-player draft” the pundit echo chamber presumed. Remember all the handwringing and weeping by guys like Slater and Strauss when the Wolves rose from #29-30 to #25? All that did for the Warriors was:
1. Increase the chances of the pick conveying from 59.9% to 72.4%
2. Push the “default pick” if it did convey from #5 to #7 (while not really changing the chances of #4).
In the view of Strauss and Slater — despite the *obvious benefit of increasing our chances of keeping the Minny pick* (which, lo, has now conveyed) — we were supposed to be rending our garments at this development, because, DOMG, there went our chances at landing Jonathan Kuminga!!! Well, lo and behold: according to Hollinger, Kuminga is a weaker prospect than Barnes, Wagner, and Sengun. Yeah, just one opinion, but with writers now going off information rather than just parroting “five player draft,” I suspect we’ll increasingly see how silly it was to get our undies in a bunch over the presumed lost chance of getting Kuminga. Heck … we may even end up with Kuminga at #7.
Meanwhile, the two teams who leapfrogged MIN into the #29-30 slots (DET and HOU) have both jumped into the top 3 range — where we would have lost the pick.
Total fail by Strauss and Slater, whom I normally enjoy reading and agree with.
Like Wagner a lot as a stretch 4, doubt he can play the 3 (to the extent there are positions any more) as teams move SG’s into the 3 position. Fits the Dub offense well assuming his 3 ball works.
I wonder if that opens up a trade up. Maybe the Magic love Kuming, think they can get him at 7, and the Warriors go get Barnes at 5. Or the Cavs like Kuminga and want to trade out of 3 and the Warriors go to 3 for Suggs or
I'm 100% OK with the Warriors getting Kuminga, too.
who doesn't love kuming?
Nice.
😂
Yeah, I have a strong feeling Kuminga does not get drafted in the top 5. Would not want the Warriors to draft him at 7 either if he makes it there though.
Pretty excited. Especially in terms of the number of promising 3&D (ie, almost a requirement to be truly playable) prospects that can still be available at the 14th pick.
In terms of what would help us win next year, it seems like a realistically obtainable need is scoring help for the bench units, esp when Klay needs more time to recover, and Curry sits. Those wildcard play-in games had really painful offense to watch when Curry sat. The scoring can be helped by either adding a scorer, or a defense-minded facilitator who can really help activate Wiseman and Poole on offense. I’m kind of a fan of this latter approach: JTA+draftee as defense and facilitators, wiseman, Poole, lee as offense seems like a decent bench (though still a far cry from when we used to have West and Livingston and Iguodala on the bench, sheesh!). If we can get a good free agent vet, then in the draft we’d just slightly prioritize what the vet doesn’t do. BTW, how do people feel about the 7th pick being better than Bazemore or Patty Mills? Otherwise replacing bazemore with draftee means we’ve downgraded in terms of roster potential from last year (Ie not counting Klay against last year’s team). Are there *playable* draft picks at the 7/14 with more offensive potential than wiseman and Poole? Trying to calibrate against what we have already.
The reach of course (whether draft or trade) is to get a player who’s starting caliber, or more importantly game-closing-small-ball caliber. In practice this means someone better than Poole/Lee who takes Looney’s spot when we need more offense and speed. Seems plausible.
Lots of ways to improve, but can we unambiguously break out of the open Western Conference?
Cannus Hoopis trying to spin the results of the draft is such a thing to behold. Poor fans.
Looks like my boy Jared Butler grew an inch -- 6'3.75" in shoes with a 6'4" wingspan. Somehow has a higher standing reach than Ayo Dosunmu who's 6'5" in shoes with a 6'10.25" wingspan. Sure wouldn't mind him at 14.
The standing reach on Ayo has to be a mistprint.
ya that's probably true, unless he has an incredibly long neck it hardly seems possible.
Read that he still needs to be cleared by the NBA for potential heart issues. Otherwise really like him.
Will Justinian Jessup play in LV summer league. Looks like Klay on tape of Aussie highlights.
Yes, I believe Bob said Jessup would play in LV this summer.
https://youtu.be/-IhMdnyTawI
Rewatching this video... If Zaire Williams is 6'10 idk if I'm passing up on him ESPECIALLY if he's there at 14 which I doubt, 6'10 good defender with shooting playmaking ability in our offense? Maybe we can move up from 14 a little bit and get him and Barnes which would be ridiculous
In the words of the younger crowd , wow PG really "sold". They're down 0-2 again but Kawhi won't be there to save them this time.
Hey Warriors fans, who wants to trade for Paul George now? How about Simmons? The grass isn't always greener on the other side. Wow. What an ending.
Why, because of two missed free throws? I'll take PG. I'd take Ben Simmons and all of his flaws too, if he weren't so redundant with Draymond.
I think a 1-4 of Steph, Klay, PG, and Simmons could easily be the core of a 60+ win NBA champ.
I think a 1-4 of Steph, Klay, Wiggs and Dray is easily the core of a 50+ win NBA contender with added bonus of a mostly homegrown bench and stable of youngsters ready to keep the success going on into the future.
Yeah, I’m not advocating a trade — just noting how awesome that core would be. Paul George randomly bricking two free throws doesn’t change the fact that he’s a fantastic player.
PG with Curry and Klay and Dray would be awesome.
Simmons kinda redundant with Dray though, but I think Simmons would also love playing next to Curry and Klay.
Paul George is still great lol.
Like most PG rated movies, for sure. ;-)
"and out of NOWHERE, The Golden State Warriors select Deven Blurry with the #7 pick in the 2021 NBA draft"
I know this draft is good and all but I have a hard time believing we'll bring in 2 rookies on top of the young guys we already have coming into next year (I still consider Poole and Paschall as inexperienced players for now). Feeling like Bob will package the 2 picks to move up if anyone is willing to bite or include #14 in some trade for a vet.
If they came out of the draft with Barnes and Kispert, I think those are guys that can help now and be a part next core with Poole, Wigs, Wiseman and JTA. With Smile and Oubre likely gone, and Mannion and Mulder fungible, there’s still room on the roster to add some veteran presence. Patty Mills on MLE and Chris’s and Bazemore on vet mins and let’s do this.
I dunno, I think people might be overstating how much Barnes can help now. The lack of shooting ability is a killer given Draymond's presence, he could be a tricky fit.
Agreed, non-shooters don’t fit with Dray and will be more long term guys.
I could see him being Draymond’s back up.
Right, but I think people are overstating how capable a 19 year old is of being Draymond's backup. Especially since it's expected that Wiseman is going to be a backup too, you'd probably want a more experienced big like JTA next to him. If they traded Wiseman, Barnes/JTA could work a bit better imo.
Yup, and with Poole as a Curry backup, Lee/Jessup as a Klay backup and JTA as a Wiggs backup, it begins to look like our B team can do a few of the things our A team can do.
Want to upgrade Klay’s back up with MLE.
Don't think JTA can be a small forward unless he improves his 3 point volume while maintaining a good percentage. That's on the table but he'll have to show it next season, for all we know this season was a fluke given his previous shooting struggles. He's a great fit for Draymond's backup though.
Also Kerr was saying they'd be further out of the rotation. I think we all learned something from that strong end of season run we saw here.
Yes, Wiseman has to get good, but he's just too far away from ready to be playing 25-30 minutes with the starters.
Too far away … meaning what? Cut him? Don’t draft him in the first place? Fact is most rookies will be a ways from contributing. But are you suggesting we just hand back the draft picks?
But we keep ignoring obvious which that the dubs current problem is that they are in cap hell and have no way to bring in veteran help absent a trade of a one of their top 4 players. That means Wigs, since you can’t or won’t trade the other 3. A trade of Wigs while throwing in a draft pick is fine in theory, but for who?
Easiest way for a rookie to contribute is shooting, shout out Moody
Give him an off-season and 60-75 games to get ready for 15-20 minutes mixed with starters/bench
I think Poole gets some vet points for the professional attitude he brings, as touted by everybody telling how hard he works. But yeah:
Vets:
Steph, Klay, Dray, looney, Wiggins,
Almost vets:
Poole, Lee, JTA
Youngins:
Wiseman, Mulder, GP, Pascall
Can’t add too many more youngins…
I think GSW may move Mulder/GP/Paschall to make space if they get a rookie who looks ready
I agree
FYI I don't care as long as the team improves I don't give a good gosh darn what they do
First stab at it.
DET Cunningham, who else.
HOU Mobley, paired with Christian Wood, awesome front line
CLE Suggs. Can't see them reaching outside of Tier 1. Garland, Sexton, Suggs nice
TOR J Green They are doing cartwheels.
ORL Kuminga, because they have slow rebuild, top Tier isn't broken.
OKC Keon Johnson or Moody to pair with SGA on the wing
GSW Scottie Barnes. Who else. He was designed in a secret lab under Chase Center
ORL Keon Johnson or Moody, whoever OKC doesn't take, to pair with Kuminga. Sweet
SAC Jalen Johnson, getting ready to move off Bagley
NOP Jaden Springer, backcourt depth with handles
CHA Day'ron Sharpe, first real reach of the draft as they look for a future, Zeller on the move
SAS Alperen Sengun, Pop is gonna Pop
IND Franz Wagner, who else? classic Indy pick, great middle of the road player
GSW Left on the Board: Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler (draft day slide for both as late adjustment to their recent rise) James Bouknight (potential steal), Josh Giddy (do our homework boom or bust), Kispert (right handed Jessup), Zaire Williams (in our backyard, do we have the inside knowledge) Not a bad batch of players to choose from at 14
From everything I’ve read, it sounds like Kispert is a much more highly-regarded prospect.
Now that Ziaire is 6'10 I could definitely see him being picked before 14. He's a project but his ceiling is now extremely high.
Well, we can certainly say his ceiling is 2 inches higher now. He is an intriguing prospect for sure.
Thanks, helpful analysis. But: who thinks it’s more likely that these two rookies get converted into higher picks or veteran talent?
Think it's highly unlikely. The two picks come in with around $8 - 9 million in salary. Can't get a great vet for that, even when adding other salaries. Don't see trading up - who's going to give up a top 5 for a couple of more chancy prospects?
Don't think any team is going to break that Top Tier, unless it's OKC because they could throw a boatload of picks into it. Otherwise, pretty sure top 5 teams will draft in order and Top Tier will clear after the 5th pick, and the draft really starts at 6.
Obviously I’d dreamed for more, but 7 is better than a push for us- there were better than even odds that it either wouldn’t convey or be lower- and plenty good to make a big difference for the franchise, so I’m a happy camper.
#7 is actually considerably better than #8 let alone lower than that, given that at least two and possibly three of Kuminga, Barnes, Johnson or Wagner will likely be there. I’d love to get Moody as well, and at 14 it seems at least plausible. Better news is this feels like enough of a haul to potentially go out and get LaVine, who’s probably the most feasible fit out there. Maybe even Simmons, though that’s a lot less likely. We’ll see.
No. Pls no. Not Simmons.
Tell me why you want Simmons
To make Draymond feel like a Splash Bros. when he is shooting a 3. LOL
You think LaVine is available?
That would be SICK!
[Connor Letourneau] Bob Myers: "We're not trying to develop players at the risk of losing ... That's not the plan.
Well, that sounds promising
LOL what’s he supposed to say?
He could say something like, "We're not trying to develop players at the risk of not chasing wins." LOL
Still had to be said. Messaging is important
I had no idea the lottery was today lol. #7 and #14 is very good. I was honestly expecting to end up with just the 14th pick
I want moody over Barnes forsure however I could see the thunder taking moody since they already have poku as a non shooting project. 14 there's a lot of options but imo 7 has to be either moody, Barnes or kuminga if he falls
If we got Barnes I would kind of want to trade Paschall.
I wonder if paschal and the 14th could get us someone
Maybe the 13th. ;-)