213 Comments

Don't know how to describe what you are doing for this site, this Summer, ERIC; ''PROLIFIC'' and ''COMPREHENSIVE'' do not do it justice. THANK YOU.

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Jul 18·edited Jul 18

Preseason stats (per 36 min)

Podz 21.8 pts on .683 TS / 11.2 reb / 7.6 ast

TJD 18.7 pts on .726 TS / 11.8 reb / 3.5 ast

Plowden 23.8 pts on .679 TS / 5.8 reb / 1.9 ast

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The kids are alright.

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Jul 18Liked by Eric Apricot

Off-topic thought: are late draft picks better than they were 10 years ago because of Curry and the 3pt revolution?

Hypothesis: shooting is a skill that's pretty unrelated to athleticism and physical stature, and something that's dramatically increased in value in today's NBA. After the top handful of prospects, this makes for a flatter talent pool with less of a skill gap between the 20th and 50th picks of the draft today than in ~pre-2017 drafts (i.e. the first drafts where kids who "grew up practicing 3s due to Curry" might start to show up).

I'm now really curious what the expected value curve is on draft picks (by, for example, various all-in-one stats over the first several years) relative to when they were picked, and whether there's been this shift. And if so, whether there's a market inefficiency on non-lottery 1st rounders vs 2nd round picks that often seem to be traded like candy.

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Jul 18·edited Jul 18

It would be very interesting to see the trend over time. I think there's always been some inefficiencies of skills that aren't valued as much as they should be. As one example -- Rodman was a 2nd rounder, Ben Wallace went undrafted -- maybe the inefficiency there was teams undervalued a guy with no offensive scoring game, but both proved to deliver HOF value.

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There have been a few expected value curves computed for draft picks. They are online though not at my fingertips. I don't think they've studied trends over time. It's a little hard because the data is so noisy already that it's hard to meaningfully compare even a five year stretch to another stretch.

I think three big recent contributors to the improvement in talent of the late second round picks are:

(1) COVID. Everyone who played in 2020 and 2021 got an extra year of NCAA eligibility. That caused a backlog of players staying in school longer and finally coming out when their five years were up. For instance, the 2024 Draft Tourney is stacked with excellent four and five year players.

(2) Name Image Likeness $. Now players can earn a very healthy living as a college player, plus...

(3) Easier Transfer Portal. Now transfer players don't have to sit out a year and can leave a bad situation for a better one (or a good one for a more lucrative one).

(1) - (3) adds up to a bunch of players staying in school longer and getting better and coming out into a draft where young age is (in my opinion) overrated.

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Jul 18·edited Jul 18

Agree that young age is overrated. Everyone seems to want to pick young players because they have the most room for improvement, but if you pick a player who's too raw, then by the time they're NBA-ready, they may be due for a big new contract which negates a lot of the value saved from drafting them, compared with signing them in free agency. I'm not sure why GMs seen to ignore this.

Getting a player like TJD who's not the youngest but knows his niche and can perform a role at an NBA level is a better outcome than most draft picks, but even moreso when he's a late 2nd-round pick who'll be cost-controlled for like 3 years and actually playing good minutes all those years.

Maybe I'm extra wary after the James Wiseman experience but it doesn't seem worth it to have super raw players who are high potential but not ready to play anything beyond garbage time or G-league games.

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young players *who are good at basketball already* are great because they're both good and have room for improvement

young players (like Wiseman) who aren't particularly good at basketball… well, who knows if they ever will be?

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Having a player in your org for a few years, being able to offer more $$ and having them as a RFA are all good reasons to draft a raw prospect even if you don't think you'll get much cost savings on the first contract. If they're really good in the second, then even the funny money contracts that are handed out now could plausibly be justified (although idk if that's true noe with how the owners control costs)

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Jul 18·edited Jul 18

A team composed of that kind of player, and you end up with the old Indiana Pacers, though ... a mediocre to not quite good team that makes the playoffs most years, but is never really in contention at the highest level.

I'm fine with taking a few swings. Wiseman was a regrettable bust, but I think you can only call that strategy an outright failure if neither Moody or Kuminga pan out (either as rotation pieces, or as key parts of a trade to get one).

But, I have to admit, whether Kuminga or Moody really pop is still an open question. And, undoubtedly we could have done better picking more ready players with those picks. We already had our tentpole players.

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One could argue that Podz and TJD are looking pretty poppy already, even though they weren’t as raw as Mm and JK.

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One could certainly produce a trend line and look at career win shares or something...

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For sure, and people will. But if we want to measure the Curry effect, then we really need to compare pre and post 2020 or so - enough time for kids to have had at least 5 years to practice the 3 bomb. Then give the draft classes at least 10 years of playing time (or non playing time). So a robust dataset is probably at least 6 or 7 years away.

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On a plane to Paris in 12 hours. Don't trade anyone I wouldn't trade. Since I'll be gone, here is a nugget if you are bored.

The Life and Death of a Draft Pick

There have been some disgruntled fans over the Poole/Paul trade that culminated in a 30mil salary dump one year later with no net return. In fact, the ability to secure that 30mil dump cost us two draft picks (2027 2nd and 2030 1st). To get another perspective, let’s say we take this subject out for dinner.

In 2019, Dubs draft Jordan Poole out of Michigan with the 28th pick in the draft.

Year 1, your appetizer arrives quickly. It’s pretty bad, tough to swallow, but on the other hand, you were starving and you just needed anything to shove down your gullet before you started in on the paper napkins.

Year 2, salad. After the appetizer, you are pleasantly surprised. +20 pts per 36, showing true combo guard abilities to play both on and off-ball. 10th in MIP voting (a testament to just how bad the appetizer was). “Hmmm?” you think. “This place might not be bad after all.”

Year 3, your entrée arrives. You were the 28th pick and that basically translates to a hamburger on the menu. Not even a cheeseburger! Just a plain old hamburger. The server arrives and drops a juicy ribeye in front of you. It’s a mistake, but you get to eat it anyway and it is a revelation. 76 gms, 51 starts, 30 min/gm,18.5 pts & 4 ast p/gm, best FT% NBA, 4th in MIP voting, he can officially start as the PG or SG, or fall back on 6th man combo guard role. That ribeye was a Poole Party. Savor it! And the 3rd year combo guard plays a key role in helping GSW to a 4th Chip. To top it off, not only did you not get stuck with the Burger you ordered, the server is sorry for the error and, not only comps the ribeye, but drops a free dessert on you.

Year 4, dessert, Punch Cake. Despite getting punched by a teammate and then unceremoniously kicked by the organization, Poole doesn’t say a word, and in the worst possible circumstances goes out and plays 82 games and leads the Warriors in total minutes played and points.

The server returns, drops the check, you got a ribeye and dessert for free, and you’re upset because you didn’t get the shitty hamburger you ordered and wish to speak to the manager. This is my analogy for those who got upset when the bill came due, ie, waiving CP3.

There are a couple things to remember. Because of Jordan Poole’s quick rise to notoriety from the back of the pack, the Warriors were going to have to pay him to maintain some control over him as an asset and as a potential max-type salary slot. The Warriors, having 4 already in Curry, Klay, Dray & Wiggs, with the new draconian CBA around the corner, knew they had to get off someone’s long term money. They had options, but those options were ended when Draymond punched Jordan’s ultimate train ticket to the East Coast.

Finally, we never paid Jordan Poole a dime of his big contract extension. Everything Jordan Poole did in his 4 years he did for around 10.5 million. That is about $1,500 per NBA minute played, 9 times less than the $13,500 Draymond earned over that period per NBA minute played.

Jordan Poole was a plain hamburger draft pick at the end of the first round. How many #28 draft picks had such a consequential first 4 years, good and bad? Ridiculous shots, falling down, legitimately helping us win a chip, we saw it all. We ordered a shitty hamburger and got a Poole Party, and like it or not, that Poole Party is its own chapter in the history of the Warriors dynasty.

Instead of complaining to the manager, the Warriors did the right thing. They smiled, left a fat ass tip (one future 1st Rd pick and 2nd Rd pick), a well-deserved gratuity, for what turned out to be an unexpectedly thrilling meal.

Do we have anything left over in the fridge from that meal? Nope. There was nothing to take home. But we had a Poole Party. As sports fans, we have the memory, we had the experience. I’d say we all got as much out of that cellar-dwelling 1st round pick as anyone could have hoped for.

Poole for Paul for a salary dump? Given how it ended, I am happy we got nothing back in the end. It wouldn’t seem right. The Poole Party had a beginning, and it had an end. It didn’t need anyone coming back like some bad TV sitcom spinoff. It’s enough that we were all there, we lived it and now it’s time to pay the bill and let it go.

Goodbye, Jordan Poole. The food was awesome and thanks for the incredible service. 😉

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To me trading Poole for CP's one year plus a non-guaranteed year worked out great. We were in a financial hole, and with the new CBA and the punitive 2nd tax apron, unloading JP's extension for one year of CP made sense. We had our Poole party but post-punch JP was not a good situation for anybody, and a trade was needed. When the trade was made, I suspect that waiving CP before year 2 was always the plan for financial reasons. CP gave us good leadership and playmaking off the bench and mentored our young 'uns, but it wasn't worth $30M for a second season under the financial circumstances. Without the JP deal and waiving CP, we couldn't have gotten under the first apron, at least, not without serious sacrifices—especially since we ended up trading Klay, not letting him walk and saving that money. Now the FO has at least some breathing room to plan for the future.

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No goodbye for me, I may never have another poole party, but I know I will savor that burger some more times, in a place on the other side of the town, where none of you ever happen to pass by.

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I'm down the all the Podz upside. But, in a way, it will be a shame if he becomes a regular starter. He has such great energy that he makes the perfect bench guy. Every time he checks into a game, the opponents all look at each other and mumbled, "Ahhh shit, this guy again?" I don't want to get in the way of him ultimately ascending to a starting point guard in the NBA. It will just take me a while to adjust to a game starting with his wonderfully chaotic energy.

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I'm sure starters feel that way when they're facing down an energetic player from the jump too, and it could be even more disruptive to opposing game plans!

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When he shows up this season with a 40% 3PT shot, a functional floater, bulldozing smaller guards into the lane and drawing FTs, you're gonna see the starter in him.

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Warriors owner Joe Lacob in an in-game interview on Brandin Podziemski: "We think we've got a future All-Star, we really do."

For what it's worth, every rival exec/staffer I talked with in Vegas absolutely loves Podziemski. Like, super high on him. This flavor of quote isn't a "team talking up their own guy" situation.

https://old.reddit.com/r/warriors/comments/1e61go3/emerman_joe_lacob_in_an_ingame_interview_on/

https://x.com/DannyEmerman/status/1813772283057754163

https://x.com/DannyEmerman/status/1813772916645126490

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fwiw, I'm reading the 2nd paragraph, and thinking yeah, SoL is talking to other team execs and staffers in Vegas, good stuff....

Maybe it's time I shut down for the night.

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Well, consider that maybe all those high ranking NBA franchise employees are also all servants of Luna. Not so crazy now, is it.

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We have to somehow pour some of SL fight & grit spirit onto the first team. Idea: keeping them close to the FT bench, compatibly with G League schedule?

Plus: Spencer is smart and useful, but don't we need more someone like Post to complete the roster?

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Jimmy Whitt sighting. Immediately turns the ball over. Next play, Vescovi — with the true spirit of the Steph Warriors — tries to force feed the ball to Whitt and turns it over.

For the first time in a long while, we have to consider the possibility that SL GSW will make the SL playoffs. A win next time will almost surely clinch a semifinals spot.

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Weirdly enough in a year where they didn't have a 1st round pick and their #55 2nd round pick hasn't played yet. It's the G-league Warriors with special guest stars, for a limited time only, Brandin Podziemski and Tracye Jackson-Davis.

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Jul 18·edited Jul 18

Summer Dubs 6-0, and all blowouts except for the one game v SAC where they dominated early and almost blew a 22-point lead.

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This Summer League performance has me looking real closely at Anthony Vereen as a coaching prospect.

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WGBSLC!

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This could be the best Warrior SL team I've ever seen. Too bad Bowden and Post haven't played. Has anyone heard what kind of injury Bowden has? Why have they held Post out?

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The 2012 Summer League Warriors were absolutely stacked. Klay, Draymond, Barnes, Ezeli, Bazemore.

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Did they win the SL?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-n65B-qFgvA

Don't know if you were a fan back then, if not it's an interesting watch (Steve Kerr on the broadcast)

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Been a fans since the 70's. Definitely an interesting watch as so many of the players went on to have great careers. I don't think our present SL team could have beaten the 2012 squad. Still too much rawness in the squad.

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They went 5-0 and had the best record. Don't think they really had a "championship" back then, but they were the only undefeated team. Other notable participants that year were Lillard, Kawhi, Jimmy Butler.

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A bumper crop of talent!

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The last report was a non-contact achilles injury. He's not part of the team so unsure if they will release a follow up report.

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Jul 18·edited Jul 18

I hate hearing "non-contact" in an injury description no matter what happens next. It's not a good adjectival phrase for me.

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(jokes aside, fully agreed. They're always the worst kind in the NBA)

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I hear Draymond suffered some non-contact injuries at the hands of Jordan Poole, but he didn't like the non-contact description either

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I like Bolden a lot. I hate to see injury stop a player from earning their place.

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Yeah, he looked really good in the games he played.

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Pat Williams — who brought the Magic to Orlando as an expansion franchise — died at 84 years old today. He spent 56 years as an NBA executive and worked as a GM for the Magic, Sixers and Bulls. He played minor league baseball, authored over 100 books and ran 58 marathons.

https://x.com/wojespn/status/1813775999081017724

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I want to like Ethan Thompson but man those turnovers.

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On a jagged possession (when Emoni Bates almost threw the ball into the backcourt), Mr. Plow kept switching to stay defending the ball handler. Reminded me a bit of JK’s attitude… I like to see that defensive pride of a stopper.

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Trade jk and save that $200 mil for other parts of the team and maybe even plowden

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He’s going to get meaningful big league minutes next season…when he’s called up

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Sorkin with his most dominant minute. Dribbles all the way down the court, kick out to corner, rebounds the miss with a loud dunk. I was distracted because Lacob was getting way out over his skis talking about how he expects Podziemski to be an all-star.

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Steph-Podz-Wigs-Dray-Lauri

That’s what he and Mikey are likely envisioning as a starting lineup

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Ainge allegedly is asking for Podz as part of the deal.

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No I know. Just stating what they’re envisioning, because they don’t want to cough him up. They’re probably standing pat on JK Moody and the picks

Non starter for both orgs. Ain’t happenin before Aug 6th that’s for sure

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Sam Quinn of CBS Sports detailed an alternate path involving Kuminga and how it could benefit the Jazz in trading for him instead of Podz. Wonder if Ainge would be thinking the same thing

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After Joe’s roasting of Ainge, sounds like neither of them are on the table…which I agree makes it lopsided in the opposite direction.

I just think it’s a dead deal now…unless Ainge folds somehow before Aug 6th, which is unlikely

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Three years spent in Euroleague shows polish in his offensive game.

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Plowden in the Summer League:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKXz1n4n2tk

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Jul 18Liked by Eric Apricot

This announcing crew going through scenarios like they were the comments in DNHQ.

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