Stephen Curry's retro Draft Scouting Report

For a little change of pace

Overall results and how we chose the field at 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament. Past Draft Tourneys archived here.

As you know, I’ve been putting together simple scouting reports for all the players in the Draft Tournament. I thought it would be fun to do the same process retrospectively on the Big 3.

I used Top 50 in BPM or PRPG as a threshold for getting into the 2024 Draft Tourney, and I was worried that I would have screened out the Big 3. I am pleased to see how well they graded out on BPM, which I have been using as a very simple blunt proxy for what should be a more sophisticated analytical approach. The advantage of BPM is that this data is readily available.

Anyway, here is my scouting report done in the same format as the other Draft Tourney reports. Everything after the videos are the genuine scouting reports from the season he was drafted and before.

Stephen Curry 2009

• Guard, 6-3, 185lb  

• Basketball Reference

• Bart Torvik’s Advanced Stats

• BPM #1

• PRPG #1

Why does BPM love him?

• Let me point out that BPM absolutely idolizes this frail youngster.

• For the two years we have data (2008 and 2009), Curry is the straight up #1 most productive player in college basketball and would be #1 in most years since 2008.

• A very high Offensive Rating on extremely high Usage and very efficient TS%, shooting a very respectable 38.8% on a very high volume.

• Add to this an extremely high Assist Rate, #8 in the whole country

• Add to this an extremely high Steal Rate (#8 in Steals in the whole country)

Why isn’t he in the running for #1 pick?

• He’s a third-year player.

• He is too small to guard NBA shooting guards and he shoots too much to be a NBA point guard.

• In the pros, he won’t have the green light to fire up as many threes as in college. In 2009, threes are still regarded as a complementary weapon but not something you can build a championship team around. It is well known in 2009 that you can’t win a trophy just shooting jump shots.

Jonathan Givony, 2009-02-28

Staying in school might become all the rage soon, based on the experiences of collegiate stars like Blake Griffin, Jordan Hill, James Harden, Hasheem Thabeet and Stephen Curry. The junior combo became a household name last March with a series of heroic performances in the NCAA tournament, and has clearly upped his draft stock by deciding to return for another year.

Curry isn't scoring quite as efficiently as last season, but he's become even more prolific, currently ranking as the #1 scorer in college basketball any way you slice it. His 3-point percentages are down by almost 6%, but he is getting to the free throw line at a much better rate to compensate, and shoots 87% once there. Best of all, Curry's assist numbers are through the roof now that he's taken over the point guard duties full time from Jason Richards (who graduated), dishing out twice as many this season while only increasing his turnovers marginally. He's also become one of the best ball-thieves in college basketball, at over 3 steals per game.

There isn't a player in the country who receives as much scrutiny from opposing defenses as Curry does. The entire game-plan of every team he faces revolves solely around shutting him down, which makes it a little bit difficult to accurately evaluate him. The problem is that his teammates just aren't good enough to punish the opposition for the way they ignore them, as they rely so incredibly heavily on his ability to generate offense for them. Curry shoulders an unbelievable share of the offensive load for Davidson, ranking #1 in the NCAA in usage rate, and #2 in field goal attempts per-40. He's one of the few players in the NCAA that you can actually say that the game will likely become easier for once he's in the NBA, playing alongside better players and getting far more easy looks.

The biggest revelation of this season is the relative ease in which Curry has converted to the point guard position. Still obviously possessing a shoot-first mentality, Curry has looked fairly unselfish running his team's offense, displaying excellent court vision and a real knack for getting teammates involved (relative to the team's situation). He does a good job on the pick and roll, and is a much more creative passer than we were previously able to see, capable of handling the ball with either hand and being very adept at playing at different speeds. Although he's probably never going to be a pure playmaker in the Steve Nash or Chris Paul mold, he plays the game at an excellent pace, looks extremely poised at all times, and appears to show a good enough feel for the game to at least develop into a capable facilitator, ala Mike Bibby or Mo Williams.

The best part of Curry's game clearly remains his perimeter shooting ability. Automatic with his feet set, he is very adept at coming off screens as well, being capable of setting his feet in an instant and getting his shot off incredibly quickly, already possessing NBA range on his jump-shot. Because of how few open looks he gets, he's had to become a prolific off the dribble shooter as well, especially going left after creating his own shot, and particularly in transition, where he excels.

Because of the incredibly high difficulty of shots he's capable of converting, Curry has a tendency to settle for a couple of truly awful attempts every game, showing absolutely no conscious. It's difficult to gauge whether this has more to do with his role on the team, or if he just really overestimates his shooting ability at times. As cool and composed as he looks on the court at all times, he may even be a little too nonchalant on occasion, making some careless plays that lead to turnovers. He does rank 14th in the NCAA in turnovers per-40 after all.

One of the bigger concerns about Curry's offensive game is that he does not project to become a prolific slasher at the NBA level. His first step is average at best, and considering his skinny frame and poor explosiveness around the basket in traffic, it's unlikely that he'll be able to get to the free throw line anywhere near as much in the NBA as he does in college. While he is a good ball-handler and is excellent at using change of speeds, fakes and hesitation moves to get by defenders, he usually prefers to settle for a pull-up jumper rather than take the way all the way to the rim. For that reason he'll probably need to have some other shot-creators playing alongside him, especially in order to take full advantage of his perimeter shooting ability. He is extremely crafty about getting to the basket, really knowing how to exaggerate contact (some would say flopping) in order to draw fouls, which currently gets him to the line at a very nice rate.

Defensively, Curry puts a solid effort in, but is extremely limited by his poor physical tools on this end of the floor. He lacks great height, length or strength, and possesses below average lateral quickness, making him a potential defensive liability when being matched up with some of the more explosive guards the NBA is known for. He is a fairly tough kid, willing to stick his nose in and take a charge, and also seems to have a terrific knack for getting in the passing lanes (ranking amongst the top ball-thieves in the NCAA in steals), being extremely intelligent about following the scouting report. His lack of strength makes him susceptible to being posted up, though, and also makes it difficult for him to fight through screens. Although offensively it appears that he can play both guard spots, on the defensive end he would likely struggle badly guarding NBA shooting guards.

All in all, Curry has had a tougher time than he did last season with all the added attention that has been thrown his way, but he still projects as a very solid pro. In the right situation, alongside the right teammates, he could be a very effective NBA player, and his excellent intangibles and winning mentality lead you to believe that he'll find a way to carve out a successful niche. The real question is whether he indeed decides to come out this year — so far he's given little indication of that, as all signs point to him being extremely happy at Davidson. From a business standpoint, it makes little sense not to declare for the draft, though, as there is almost nothing left for him to prove at the collegiate level, and quite a bit to lose if things go wrong. It wouldn't shock us to see the decision go either way.

Stevan Petrovic – 12/15/2008

NBA Comparison: Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf

Strengths: Made transition from SG to PG this year, but he is more of a combo guard that makes good decisions than a true PG … Best scorer in the NCAA so far at 31.9 PPG … Puts a lot of pressure on defense with his scoring ability and quickness … Looks fearless on the floor and plays under control … Can get any shot he wants and has great shot efficiency … Teams are completely focusing on him defensively, rotating different players at him, so he’s under pressure at all times and still finds a way to hit difficult shots every game … Very confident shooter, especially when the game is on the line (vs. WV struggled the whole game and was not afraid to take over at the end) … Curry can put the ball on the floor and create his own shot from anywhere on the floor and he doesn’t need much space to get his shot off (he will cross-over, trough the legs dribble, behind the back…) … Gets defenders off balance using pump fakes and uses defenders overeagerness to his advantage … Very difficult to guard because he possesses a quick and consistent release on his shot (on the move or under pressure as well) and has NBA range … Moves well without the ball. Great footwork when coming off screens, always ready to shoot … Curry is good at changing speed and direction and handles the ball well … In the open court he can stop on a dime at full speed, with his feet in perfect position (under control) and separate from his defender for open jump-shot … Great vision while driving to the basket and control with the ball … Defensively Curry is crafty and a smart defender with good hands 2.9 STL (not a lockout defender); moves his feet well on defense and stays in front of his defender without gambling much … Solid lateral quickness. Possesses a great will to win. Excellent free-throw shooter .874 … Doesn’t show too much emotion, even keeled. Has been around the game his entire life which gives him an edge knowing what it takes …

Weaknesses: Far below NBA standard in regard to explosivenes and athleticism … At 6-2, he’s extremely small for the NBA shooting guard position, and it will likely keep him from being much of a defender at the next level … Although he’s playing point guard this year, he’s not a natural point guard that an NBA team can rely on to run a team … Struggles defensively getting around screens … Can overshoot and rush into shots from time to time (vs. WV) … Hasn’t had to deal with getting benched due to poor performance (shooting) which has allowed him to shoot through any slumps. Will have to adjust to not being a volume shooter which could have an effect on his effectiveness … Doesn’t like when defenses are too physical with him … Not a great finisher around the basket due to his size and physical attributes … Makes some silly mistakes at the PG position. Needs to add some muscles to his upper body, but appears as though he’ll always be skinny …

Aran Smith – 9/12/2007

Strengths: Heady, precocious player with a solid feel for the game His greatest asset is his outside shooting ability … Bigtime scorer (21 ppg as a freshman) with the ability to score from all over the court Shows an excellent shooting form with a quick release and the ability to spot up and shoot or hit shots off the dribble … Solid decision maker, shows the understanding of the game that you would expect from an NBA players son Has excellent quickness … A solid defender with good instincts especially with his anticipation for steals

Weaknesses: More of a 2-guard than a point Must develop as a point guard A decent passer and ball handler, but still must improve considerably in both areas and learn to play the PG position in order to make it in the league … At 6-1, hes far too small to play solely at the 2G position … Had a solid 1-1 A/TO ratio (for a freshman who plays mostly off the ball), but can improve upon that Lacks great athletic ability, although he shows good quickness … Body is on the small side, short arms and lack of great natural body strength … Lacks great visibility and competition level at mid-major Davidson…

Notes: Son of long time NBA sharpshooter Dell Curry (16 year career) Helped the U19 USA Team to a 2nd place finish in Novi Sad, Serbia during the summer Averaged 21 ppg as a freshman at Davidson with a big 30 point performance in the NCAA tournament against Maryland …

Tom Patterson, 2009

Dominate mid major conference scorer who had incredible NCAA tourney to put himself on the map. Without argument the smoothest shooting touch in the country. Has shown he can come off screens, spot up, pull up from deep or mid range and be accurate, and go into long streaks without missing. Moved to the point this year to get more shots but not a natural PG. Does not have ideal size for nba 2 guard or proven himself defensively against tough competition. If he is used appropriately he will wear down opponent by making them work defensively running around screens and working hard to get open. Son of shooting great Dell Curry is a throw back shooting guard with great confidence, demeanor and ability to fill it up from outside.

NBA comparisons: Hersey Hawkings, or less athletic Ray Allen.