Quinones plays 21 minutes in a loss to Puerto Rico, 13 points on 9 shots, 3 rebounds, and a steal. Assuming it is only 5 fouls in FIBA (is it?) it looks like he fouled out.
Yeah, planning to watch the game later today, looks like LQ had a much better outing except for the fouls. 5 fouls and you are done in FIBA. KAT had 39 but wasn't enough to overcome a huge game from . . . Tremont Waters? 7/13 from three? Who even is that guy?
On a side note, Anthony Edwards is getting far too much praise on social media. He’s entirely overrated as an NBA player.
Everybody looks at his 25 PPG and don’t realize that he had below average 56.4 TS% which is in the 41rst percentile. In terms of passing, he’s 91rst among all guards in Adjusted Assist to Pass %, 107th in potential assists per 75 among all players, 333rd in potential assists per on-ball minute, 107th in potential assists per passes amongst all players, and 103rd in high value assist % among all players.
He doesn’t even use his incredible athleticism to hit the glass ranking 58th amongst all guards in adjusted rebound %
Defensively, Edwards is actually quite solid being good at getting deflections (77th percentile)/blocks (66th percentile) while also being quite solid at defending pick and roll handlers/spot up (73rd percentile).
So basically, what you have is a high volume scoring guard whose inefficient whose a subpar passer/rebounder that’s pretty solid at defense. That doesn’t really sound like an All Star to me.
The advanced stats back up that his impact is not All Star level. His win shares per 48 are a paltry .064 which is FAR below the average 0.150–0.200 win share. His BPM of 1.0 is below the average All Star BPM of 4-6. His VORP of 2.1 is below the average All Star VORP of 3-5. His TS added (The number of extra points added by True Shot Attempts made above league average) is -61.3. His Average Plus/Minus Per 100 Possessions is a 1.0 which is far below the 5-10 + which is the usual for All Star NBA players.
One of these stats could be ignored, but all of them pointing the same way backs my eye test which indicates that Anthony Edwards is an inefficient shot chucker whose also bad at passing/rebounding whose redeeming quality is that he’s a good defender.
KD had similar TS% (51.9 & 57.7) in year 1+2. He may not get there, I was not convinced by him in college at all, but I think you’re jumping the gun on condemning him. He is on a star trajectory, remains to be seen if he puts everything together to reach his full potential. I think the praise is merited given his performance, age, and context of that weirdly constructed team. It may or may not be in the future, we will have to see how well he matures.
In year 2, KD at 58 TS% was 4% better than the league average at the time. His TS added (The number of extra points added by True Shot Attempts made above league average) is was an astounding 106.6 (in comparison to Edward's-61.3).
KD was already a very efficient in Year 2. Those stats support my position, not yours, because efficiency relative to the rest of the league is what matters.
Why do you think efficiency relative to the league matters? How is that relevant to projecting the future stardom of a player? Honestly I think the more complicated you make your methodology when it comes to basketball statistics the more likely you are losing predictive power (ie. Overtraining vs generalizability). However if you have an interesting paper that shows the generalizability of TS added (ie. Not just curve fitting but splitting the data and showing error in a prediction set) I’d be more than willing to change my mind.
But even relative to the time there was a big debate where that professor from IU who consulted for the mavs (I forget his name) looked at KD’s inefficiency two years in and made a very similar argument about him, which is what triggered my memory.
The league average TS% can fluctuate from season to season based on changes in rules, playing styles, pace of the game, and defensive strategies. By comparing a player's TS% to the league average, you can help account for league trends and gauge how well they performed within the context of the playing conditions they faced.
For example, when KD entered the league, there was less emphasis on three-point shooting which resulted in lower TS% values but thats not indicative of his true scoring ability. Its more reflective of the times.
My general view on this is that statistical controls should be deployed with a predictive test to determine their efficacy. I don’t think TS added is likely solving for normalizing context, in fact it’s not clear that we can reasonably control for complex factors like rule changes or league trends in an accurate manner at all.
I do think that TS added is valuable context on whether he is a star today. To be clear I don’t think he is - so if that’s what you’re referring to in terms of twitter commentary I agree with you. I do think that his statistical performance in the context of his age, team, etc. seems to justify the hype around him being a future star. These things are always fraught as each level of improvement is less likely. I think it’s useful to think that Durant went through such controversy himself. But it’s also good context that many more didn’t make it. So it’s reasonable to add some caution, but I think given his age a bit much to say he’s on a mediocre trajectory.
How did/do you feel about Wiggin's all-star nod? Cause you could literally cut/paste "drew Wiggin" over "thony Edward" and the only significant difference in your post would be that you'd be talking about a 26 y/o vs a 21 y/o
well then you're consistent, that's good! I wasn't a huge fan of it either, but when I dug in to write a post complaining about it I couldn't find a clear and obvious alternate who deserved it way more. Maybe all-star is just a lower bar than we imagine.
He's played his whole career in the weird tundra of Minnesota with KAT and either DLo or Gobert. Especially this past year with the #TepidTwinTowers, I'm not surprised he couldn't find passing windows or finish effectively against defenses freely clogging the paint.
My eye test also tells me he's a bit over-rated... but his situation is not ideal for putting up good efficient numbers. His on/off numbers are ok and improved every year... not that that's a be-all-end-all either, but the team does get objectively, noticeably worse when he goes to the bench.
Do you think his passing and shooting efficiency might be significantly better on a team with a different system (say, the Dubs, not that we could actually get him)?
Its difficult to say. I thought Wiggins shooting efficiency would increase with us because his advanced stats indicated that he was quite effective cutter/off screens/transition (while being poor on spot ups) which is important if you're gonna be the third option.
Edwards is in a high percentile when it comes to spot ups/cuts (poor off screens) but its at a low frequency so I'm uncertain how it would translate to higher frequencies. As a passer, I don't think he would improve as passing (Wiggins didn't either much).
I think he probably gets viewed a little more positively than his current play warrants, but I think a lot of that is because he’s doing this at 22 years old. Looking at stats like WAR or RAPTOR and Edwards ranks 32nd and 57th in the NBA respectively. Thats pretty incredible for a 22 year old.
Is he the A1 player he gets billed as? No. But does he project to be in the near future? It sure seems likely.
Booker/Shai/Mitchell/Lavine all over Edwards imho. While Edwards is a better defender than Mitchell/Lavine, Mitchell has shown that he’s a good enough team defender to consistently be a part of top defenses and is a far better offensive player while also being a demonstrated peformer in the playoffs. Lavine is the most arguable, but far more efficient/better shooter while being a similar passer. His advanced stats and impact metrics (with the exception of on/off) are all firmly in the All Star tier while Edwards isn’t close.
Maybe in the future Edwards will become better than them, but as for now, he’s firmly 5th in my SG rankings.
Anyone know how/where to watch Sepak Takraw? I got a hunch that it'll be one of those sports that translates when we're floating around in zero-G on a Elon X prison transport to colonize Alpha Australi Prime. Figured I should learn the rules now so I can bet my recycled water ration on something good
Assuming he is healthy for the entire season, Curry could crack the top 30 all time points leader board. With an exceptional season, he might even pass Charles Barkley at number 29 in about 100 fewer games which isn't bad for a guy that is "just a jump shooter".
2016 Bogut and its not close for me. I love Loon, but all one has to do is look at the 2016 finals pre and post-Bogut injury in game 5 to see how important he was. His loss basically broke GS' close to historically good defense in a way I don't think losing Looney ever would. Until the injury, GS was holding LeBron to 25 pts a game. After the loss of Bogut, the Cavs went from 96 pts a game to almost 107 and LeBron to almost 37.
Same. Go back and look at 4th quarters with Bogut and Green defending the rim. There would be long droughts in dub scoring but longer droughts on the other end with a series of missed baskets in the paint from incredible contests from those two. Clearly some okay shooters on dubs too, but we forget that defensive mastery. But coming back this year! :)
Bogut ran the defense. He taught Draymond how to run an NBA defense, call out directions, etc. He was a better passer than Loon, and as good as Loon's screens are, Bogut's were better. You might as well try to slip around a King Kong screen.
Speaking of passing, I really liked what I saw in those Saric highlights. I realize you can only take away so much from highlights, and you don't see the times he got picked off or made a wrong read, but those no-look passes were sweet.
There used to be a video floating around on youtube that shows it from the trailing baseline that is quite a bit worse and makes it really obvious what the intent was.
For the life of me, I have no idea what you're talking about. Josh Okogie does nothing dirty in that play.
This is the Warriors equivalent to the Morant/Poole knee tap. Okogie was sprinting behind Curry (probably hoping to poke out the ball from behind) when he who suddenly went up for the shot forcing Okogie to adjust his body on the fly to avoid slamming into Curry and in the process barely touched Curry's foot and not meaningfully changing his feets trajectory.
That's how I see it as well. I see him trying to actually avoid contact as Steph pulls up right in front of him as he's trailing Steph. He tries to sidestep around Steph but cuts it too close and makes incidental contact to Steph's foot. I don't see any grabbing or forceful push as he makes contact to the foot.
It really looked like he reached for the leg on purpose.
But in the closeup there was no tension in his hand which seems very hard to do if he’s intentionally trying to get Curry’s leg. Arash seems to be on to something here.
Okogie stretches out to touch Steph ~8 feet away from the ball. Explain to me how he's trying to poke at the ball at Steph's ankle while Steph is releasing the shot. There's no NBA player who thinks they're going to catch ball swiping there. He's *clearly* swiping at something else.
Now, he doesn't hit Steph too hard, so I'm not too mad at it, but it's absolutely a deliberate attempt to sneakily affect the shot in a way that knocks an airborne player off balance. Bush league.
Poole was reaching toward the ball in a "kinda loose ball" situation. If Poole had grabbed Ja's knee after Ja had released a pass, I'd see some equivalency, but that's not the scenario.
My favorite Steph game will be his 72 point performance against Phoenix on October 24th, 2023 to once again remind the league his decline from superstardom is still a few years away.
Santos with 23 minutes played against Ivory Coast (tied for fourth on Brazil). 7 points on 7 shots, 6 rebounds, 1 assist. Stats are eh but the increased minutes are encouraging, maybe he was doing stuff that wasn't showing up in the boxscore. Or maybe they just wanted to get him some run against an easier opponent.
The Brazil team is fun to watch because they run a lot of plays. I have been wondering how much time the NBA stars actually play or practice with their national teams. For example, how often does KAT play in or with the DR team?
https://www.fiba.basketball/basketballworldcup/2023/game/0109/Dominican-Republic-Puerto-Rico#|tab=boxscore
Quinones plays 21 minutes in a loss to Puerto Rico, 13 points on 9 shots, 3 rebounds, and a steal. Assuming it is only 5 fouls in FIBA (is it?) it looks like he fouled out.
Yeah, planning to watch the game later today, looks like LQ had a much better outing except for the fouls. 5 fouls and you are done in FIBA. KAT had 39 but wasn't enough to overcome a huge game from . . . Tremont Waters? 7/13 from three? Who even is that guy?
Imagine what this Curry kid will do to the league when he eventually rounds into his prime #TwoTimelines #Lightyears
Yep that Canon Curry kid will be something in his prime. He already does Steph's two-handed dribble drills. 😊😊😊
All Eight of Stephen Curry’s Career Game Winners | Golden State Warriors: https://youtu.be/qq_pKglxj_w?si=0dMEToxT9esH6IZF
OT don’t know if someone already posted this, but Omari Spellman is playing for Lebanon. He actually looks pretty good.
On a side note, Anthony Edwards is getting far too much praise on social media. He’s entirely overrated as an NBA player.
Everybody looks at his 25 PPG and don’t realize that he had below average 56.4 TS% which is in the 41rst percentile. In terms of passing, he’s 91rst among all guards in Adjusted Assist to Pass %, 107th in potential assists per 75 among all players, 333rd in potential assists per on-ball minute, 107th in potential assists per passes amongst all players, and 103rd in high value assist % among all players.
He doesn’t even use his incredible athleticism to hit the glass ranking 58th amongst all guards in adjusted rebound %
Defensively, Edwards is actually quite solid being good at getting deflections (77th percentile)/blocks (66th percentile) while also being quite solid at defending pick and roll handlers/spot up (73rd percentile).
So basically, what you have is a high volume scoring guard whose inefficient whose a subpar passer/rebounder that’s pretty solid at defense. That doesn’t really sound like an All Star to me.
The advanced stats back up that his impact is not All Star level. His win shares per 48 are a paltry .064 which is FAR below the average 0.150–0.200 win share. His BPM of 1.0 is below the average All Star BPM of 4-6. His VORP of 2.1 is below the average All Star VORP of 3-5. His TS added (The number of extra points added by True Shot Attempts made above league average) is -61.3. His Average Plus/Minus Per 100 Possessions is a 1.0 which is far below the 5-10 + which is the usual for All Star NBA players.
One of these stats could be ignored, but all of them pointing the same way backs my eye test which indicates that Anthony Edwards is an inefficient shot chucker whose also bad at passing/rebounding whose redeeming quality is that he’s a good defender.
KD had similar TS% (51.9 & 57.7) in year 1+2. He may not get there, I was not convinced by him in college at all, but I think you’re jumping the gun on condemning him. He is on a star trajectory, remains to be seen if he puts everything together to reach his full potential. I think the praise is merited given his performance, age, and context of that weirdly constructed team. It may or may not be in the future, we will have to see how well he matures.
In year 2, KD at 58 TS% was 4% better than the league average at the time. His TS added (The number of extra points added by True Shot Attempts made above league average) is was an astounding 106.6 (in comparison to Edward's-61.3).
KD was already a very efficient in Year 2. Those stats support my position, not yours, because efficiency relative to the rest of the league is what matters.
Why do you think efficiency relative to the league matters? How is that relevant to projecting the future stardom of a player? Honestly I think the more complicated you make your methodology when it comes to basketball statistics the more likely you are losing predictive power (ie. Overtraining vs generalizability). However if you have an interesting paper that shows the generalizability of TS added (ie. Not just curve fitting but splitting the data and showing error in a prediction set) I’d be more than willing to change my mind.
But even relative to the time there was a big debate where that professor from IU who consulted for the mavs (I forget his name) looked at KD’s inefficiency two years in and made a very similar argument about him, which is what triggered my memory.
The league average TS% can fluctuate from season to season based on changes in rules, playing styles, pace of the game, and defensive strategies. By comparing a player's TS% to the league average, you can help account for league trends and gauge how well they performed within the context of the playing conditions they faced.
For example, when KD entered the league, there was less emphasis on three-point shooting which resulted in lower TS% values but thats not indicative of his true scoring ability. Its more reflective of the times.
My general view on this is that statistical controls should be deployed with a predictive test to determine their efficacy. I don’t think TS added is likely solving for normalizing context, in fact it’s not clear that we can reasonably control for complex factors like rule changes or league trends in an accurate manner at all.
I do think that TS added is valuable context on whether he is a star today. To be clear I don’t think he is - so if that’s what you’re referring to in terms of twitter commentary I agree with you. I do think that his statistical performance in the context of his age, team, etc. seems to justify the hype around him being a future star. These things are always fraught as each level of improvement is less likely. I think it’s useful to think that Durant went through such controversy himself. But it’s also good context that many more didn’t make it. So it’s reasonable to add some caution, but I think given his age a bit much to say he’s on a mediocre trajectory.
How did/do you feel about Wiggin's all-star nod? Cause you could literally cut/paste "drew Wiggin" over "thony Edward" and the only significant difference in your post would be that you'd be talking about a 26 y/o vs a 21 y/o
Not a fan of it.
well then you're consistent, that's good! I wasn't a huge fan of it either, but when I dug in to write a post complaining about it I couldn't find a clear and obvious alternate who deserved it way more. Maybe all-star is just a lower bar than we imagine.
He's played his whole career in the weird tundra of Minnesota with KAT and either DLo or Gobert. Especially this past year with the #TepidTwinTowers, I'm not surprised he couldn't find passing windows or finish effectively against defenses freely clogging the paint.
My eye test also tells me he's a bit over-rated... but his situation is not ideal for putting up good efficient numbers. His on/off numbers are ok and improved every year... not that that's a be-all-end-all either, but the team does get objectively, noticeably worse when he goes to the bench.
Do you think his passing and shooting efficiency might be significantly better on a team with a different system (say, the Dubs, not that we could actually get him)?
Its difficult to say. I thought Wiggins shooting efficiency would increase with us because his advanced stats indicated that he was quite effective cutter/off screens/transition (while being poor on spot ups) which is important if you're gonna be the third option.
Edwards is in a high percentile when it comes to spot ups/cuts (poor off screens) but its at a low frequency so I'm uncertain how it would translate to higher frequencies. As a passer, I don't think he would improve as passing (Wiggins didn't either much).
You could ask Wiggins about that, certainly
My thought too.
I think he probably gets viewed a little more positively than his current play warrants, but I think a lot of that is because he’s doing this at 22 years old. Looking at stats like WAR or RAPTOR and Edwards ranks 32nd and 57th in the NBA respectively. Thats pretty incredible for a 22 year old.
Is he the A1 player he gets billed as? No. But does he project to be in the near future? It sure seems likely.
Booker/Shai/Mitchell/Lavine all over Edwards imho. While Edwards is a better defender than Mitchell/Lavine, Mitchell has shown that he’s a good enough team defender to consistently be a part of top defenses and is a far better offensive player while also being a demonstrated peformer in the playoffs. Lavine is the most arguable, but far more efficient/better shooter while being a similar passer. His advanced stats and impact metrics (with the exception of on/off) are all firmly in the All Star tier while Edwards isn’t close.
Maybe in the future Edwards will become better than them, but as for now, he’s firmly 5th in my SG rankings.
Fill in the following sentence:
Now that the Women's World Cup is over, I am watching ______ for sports until the NBA starts up.
Looking for ideas. So far, my best option seems to be college women's volleyball.
NY Liberty. Sabrina Ionescu made more baskets in the three point shootout than Steph ever has. She’s only 23 or so. And she’s from the Bay area.
Anyone know how/where to watch Sepak Takraw? I got a hunch that it'll be one of those sports that translates when we're floating around in zero-G on a Elon X prison transport to colonize Alpha Australi Prime. Figured I should learn the rules now so I can bet my recycled water ration on something good
FIBA world cup and WNBA
I guess poking Louis with a stick counts as a sport. :)
Assuming he is healthy for the entire season, Curry could crack the top 30 all time points leader board. With an exceptional season, he might even pass Charles Barkley at number 29 in about 100 fewer games which isn't bad for a guy that is "just a jump shooter".
“Hey Chuck, this jump shooter just jumped over you in the all time scoring list with my shooting.”
So if you had to choose one center for our squad, who would you pick between Bogut and Looney?
Do we get 2016 Bogut or 2023? I'm a huge Loon fan, but I'd go with 2016 Bogut, he was pretty damn good.
2016 Bogut and its not close for me. I love Loon, but all one has to do is look at the 2016 finals pre and post-Bogut injury in game 5 to see how important he was. His loss basically broke GS' close to historically good defense in a way I don't think losing Looney ever would. Until the injury, GS was holding LeBron to 25 pts a game. After the loss of Bogut, the Cavs went from 96 pts a game to almost 107 and LeBron to almost 37.
Absolutely 2016 Bogut lmao.
I think I'd pick 2016 Bogut too but the fact that it's even close when he has several inches on Loon and is a much better passer is pretty amazing.
I don't think it's close, and I am a Loon fan.
With 2016 bogut we would be the favorites full stop
Same. Go back and look at 4th quarters with Bogut and Green defending the rim. There would be long droughts in dub scoring but longer droughts on the other end with a series of missed baskets in the paint from incredible contests from those two. Clearly some okay shooters on dubs too, but we forget that defensive mastery. But coming back this year! :)
Bogut ran the defense. He taught Draymond how to run an NBA defense, call out directions, etc. He was a better passer than Loon, and as good as Loon's screens are, Bogut's were better. You might as well try to slip around a King Kong screen.
Speaking of passing, I really liked what I saw in those Saric highlights. I realize you can only take away so much from highlights, and you don't see the times he got picked off or made a wrong read, but those no-look passes were sweet.
So Eric Lewis is retiring on his own terms.
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nba-referee-eric-lewis-retires-league-ends-investigation-into-his-alleged-use-of-burner-account-to-defend-his-work-175053315.html
If anyone is wondering about the Josh Okogie "dirty" comment, this is what I'm talking about: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfpgwMCvYuI
There used to be a video floating around on youtube that shows it from the trailing baseline that is quite a bit worse and makes it really obvious what the intent was.
[EDIT] Found it, courtesy of this article: https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/video-of-josh-okogie-slapping-steph-currys-ankle-is-bad-look-for-nba/1366279/.
Link: https://twitter.com/TheWarriorsTalk/status/1112080836063453184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1112080836063453184%7Ctwgr%5E4c1c2adb313af495b5c666222830c8115ebe989c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcsportsbayarea.com%2Fnba%2Fgolden-state-warriors%2Fvideo-of-josh-okogie-slapping-steph-currys-ankle-is-bad-look-for-nba%2F1366279%2F
For the life of me, I have no idea what you're talking about. Josh Okogie does nothing dirty in that play.
This is the Warriors equivalent to the Morant/Poole knee tap. Okogie was sprinting behind Curry (probably hoping to poke out the ball from behind) when he who suddenly went up for the shot forcing Okogie to adjust his body on the fly to avoid slamming into Curry and in the process barely touched Curry's foot and not meaningfully changing his feets trajectory.
Y'all are reaching so hard right now.
That's how I see it as well. I see him trying to actually avoid contact as Steph pulls up right in front of him as he's trailing Steph. He tries to sidestep around Steph but cuts it too close and makes incidental contact to Steph's foot. I don't see any grabbing or forceful push as he makes contact to the foot.
It really looked like he reached for the leg on purpose.
But in the closeup there was no tension in his hand which seems very hard to do if he’s intentionally trying to get Curry’s leg. Arash seems to be on to something here.
>probably hoping to poke out the ball from behind
Okogie stretches out to touch Steph ~8 feet away from the ball. Explain to me how he's trying to poke at the ball at Steph's ankle while Steph is releasing the shot. There's no NBA player who thinks they're going to catch ball swiping there. He's *clearly* swiping at something else.
Now, he doesn't hit Steph too hard, so I'm not too mad at it, but it's absolutely a deliberate attempt to sneakily affect the shot in a way that knocks an airborne player off balance. Bush league.
Poole was reaching toward the ball in a "kinda loose ball" situation. If Poole had grabbed Ja's knee after Ja had released a pass, I'd see some equivalency, but that's not the scenario.
Ugh. I don't get why the league doesn't punish this sort of thing once it is shown on video. Perps should be fined and even suspended.
I don't even need to watch... I only see the baseline angle in my mind. Such a bush-league move... thankfully Steph didn't twist an ankle...
I thought I was the only one that was (and still am) extremely infuriated at this play.
Ughh, in slow motion it appears he is clearly targeting his foot. That is serious BS if true.
slow motion can reveal things that are there, and also things that aren't
it makes everything look more deliberate
My favorite Steph game will be his 72 point performance against Phoenix on October 24th, 2023 to once again remind the league his decline from superstardom is still a few years away.
Is that the game where CP gets 24 assists in 24 minutes?
nice compilation, good memories
This stuff has been coming out on a regular basis on youtube and has been quite fun to watch when it pops up.
https://www.espn.com/fiba/game/_/gameId/401553375
Santos with 23 minutes played against Ivory Coast (tied for fourth on Brazil). 7 points on 7 shots, 6 rebounds, 1 assist. Stats are eh but the increased minutes are encouraging, maybe he was doing stuff that wasn't showing up in the boxscore. Or maybe they just wanted to get him some run against an easier opponent.
The Brazil team is fun to watch because they run a lot of plays. I have been wondering how much time the NBA stars actually play or practice with their national teams. For example, how often does KAT play in or with the DR team?
Woohoo - thanks EA!
Loved this comment when it first came out; thanks for posting.
Any idea the total length of all of these highlights?