136 Comments
Jan 27, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Just a thought on Oubre's struggles:

Wiggins had ~20 games last year to start learning Kerr's offensive & defensive principles, and presumably spent all his (lengthened) offseason learning up even more... albeit without much actual team practice time.

Oubre was traded to the Warriors a month before the season, in the middle of a pandemic, after being traded once already in the offseason... and has been trying to learn team's offensive & defensive principles with a (probably overwhelmed) rookie mucking things up a bit with his own learning curve. It's going to be hard to develop good fundamental understanding of the action of the offense until he can experience it being regularly run properly with him as the weak link. And not knowing where to go, he will revert to his existing training & best practices... for instance: if he's supposed to set a screen and then run to the basket or run backdoor, but finds Wiseman occupying the space he's supposed to threaten, he's gotta improvise where to go without yet truly knowing where everybody else is going to go next.

I'm hopeful that switching Looney into the starting 5 will help Oubre's learning curve in our offense.

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These are excellent points.

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Also, we don't talk about it nearly enough: Oubre had season ending knee surgery prior to coming here. He couldn't even play in the bubble because he was still in rehab...

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I totally agree with this and DFiB's OP.

And here's another angle to look at the situation... the 3nD role is probably about as important as it's ever been. It's also one of the most demanding positions and having athletic wings who need to shoot and defend well can make or break a team. But in the end, teams still expect these players to be to plug-n-play role players -- no team is going to adjust their schemes for the incoming player.

You take a look at players often coveted in these roles (eg. RoCo, Otto Porter, Tobias Harris) and you often see drops in production when they change teams and/or have an injury (RoCo being the other obvious one this year). Oubre is dealing with a team change, injury, and learning a non-trivial Warriors style.

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oubre is making 14 mill this season, if we make the playoffs and hes playing well...he will want a rise, near 16-18 ...lonzo will be much cheaper and, i hope, the pick from minny will come too and thats another salary to count

I think oubre will be great for us next season..but from the bench...so thats something else to keep in mind..would he accept that role?

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Count me in for Ball for Oubre. When in doubt, take the IQ player. Ball will benefit from the faster pace of GSW. Advanced stats seem to like Lonzo's defense more, even if Oubre's flashier. It seems sacrilegious to say but I could see an Iguodala-like role for Lonzo. The sneaky acquisition would be if they could add Hart as well. A really good rebounding SF who can shoot a 3 and play defense would be quite an add. For that very reason, that seems overly optimistic of course.

Add more DLee playing time, and baby, you got a stew cooking.

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What if the offered deal was Ball for Oubre and the Minnesota pick or the Warriors 1st round pick? I suspect it was something like that.

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The Minnesota pick is going nowhere. It's probably the best non-Curry asset on the Warriors, more than Wiseman, Paschall, or even Klay/Dray. There is a world where I could imagine the GSW 2021 pick with light protections (top 3 or something) + Oubre for Ball/Hart. For just Ball, I'm probably out.

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You don't think there is a reason the Pels want to move him? He can't shoot. This is his 2nd team and they want to move on, already? Not a good sign at all. The Dubs can do so much better if they actually try to move Oubre. I would be shocked if this trade happened.

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Oubre's on his 4th team. He can't shoot. The same logic is just as prevalent. I just don't think there's much out there better for Oubre on the market. Of course, betting against a trade is always the favorite, so yeah, seems unlikely to happen.

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Oubre's been on 3 teams, Wiz, Suns, Dubs. His stats say he can shoot. .427%fg, .322%3P, .776%ft carreer stats. Not off the charts good like Klay, but sufficient for a support player. He is definitely having a bad season but he does do things for us that no one else does. Is he worth the money they pay him? Maybe not. But they don't have to trade him. He is an expiring contract. No reason to just flip him for a notorious poor shooter whose career stats paint a very limited profile.

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Oubre also was a member of the OKC organization even if he never played a game. Lonzo for his career has a better 3P% than Oubre. Perhaps the FT% shows that he's a worse shooter but it wouldn't be crazy for Lonzo to be the better 3P shooter going forward. He's also an expiring. And he also does things Kelly absolutely can't do. Notably he actually passes the ball. He also consistently has positive on-off splits, while Kelly does not.

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Maybe tonight's game changed your mind about Oubre?

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You think the Ball family would graciously accept him leading the second squad?

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Lonzo himself doesn't seem like he's that out there. Who cares what Lavar thinks? Stop giving him a platform and he goes away. But, sure the behind the scenes is important too. If Kelly is amazing in the locker room, it may be a no-go as well. That said, I think Steph might not admit it even to himself, but he may secretly be grateful if Oubre was gone.

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If we trade for Lonzo can we designate LaVar for assignment and ship him somewhere far away?

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I have been high on Oubre through most of his struggles, but last game I got glimpses of what I felt with DLo and I sadly I am starting to think this may not work. Though a trade for Lonzo and JJ is not very exciting. Regarding Lonzo, aside from his playmaking, his average-decent defense— what really bothers me (outside his family relations and rap career) is I get really turned off when guys struggle with FT’s. It is a direct result of how much work you chose to put in (which is probably why I can’t seem to give up my faith in Jordan Poole). I just wouldn’t do this trade now. I am not sure that Kelly is our guy, but he gives effort (most of the time).

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You felt this from the Minnesota game? When Oubre scored 14 points on 9 shots, co-led the team in rebounds and assists, chipped in 3 steals and a block, and had a positive +/-?

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Yeah, there was a play where Oubre and another wing defender switched on defense, Kelly let the guy get right by him and he scored. I have seen similar plays from him and it just felt so reminiscent of DLo. I love Oubre’s energy when he picks a guy full court. It’s infectious, but I think it also masks his poor team defense. Like his thunderous dunks seem to mask the fact the he routinely struggles to finish at the rim. I know he has played better as of late, and I am still holding on to what I thought he might be, but it seems like I have seen this before.

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Iggy struggled with FT% as a Warrior (2 seasons below 60%)

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Ok, having watched some highlights of Ball with his quick passes in the lane and steals... I could see something there that would be intriguing on this team. Still not a fan of the Ball family nonsense, but it’s interesting.

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Also OT Just looked at the Utah - Knicks game & Knicks are leading by a point at the end of 3rd qtr. Austin Rivers is 10-10 and 5-5 on 3s for 25 pts. *eyes wide* Meanwhile, Mitchell is 2-13 for 6 pts for the Jazz.

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So ... with Harden gone, Luka and his team slumping, and Mitchell plummeting back to earth efficiency-wise, is the starting Western backcourt now Steph and Dame? Even if the All-Star game is theoretical, that would cool.

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CJ is out too... there could be room for Wiggs!

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Austin Rivers still sucks. :-)

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I seemed to have jinxed poor Austin. He didn't make a shot for the rest of the game [0-4] and the Knicks lost by 14.

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Austin Rivers sucks

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Jazz woke up and are on a 14-3 run to start the 4th.

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"Austin River sucks.... the life out of the Jazz"?

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LOLOLOL Yup. He's also sucking the life out of Bogdanovic who is 2-10.

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No thanks, for me. Glad it wasn't us shopping Oubre... we need rebounding and outside shooting.

At best this is a wash... Oubre is bigger and I don't trust that a career 49 FT% guard will ever consistently shoot well from outside. He's basically a slightly longer Rubio... and more playmaking is nice but that's not where we're hurting.

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Rubio hits free throws at a decent clip, tho.

Even 70-75% is bad for a PG ... Lonzo’s career 49.3% is a complete deal-breaker, even if partially mitigated by the fact that he’s pathetic at getting to the stripe in the first place.

Is it too much to ask for Oubre with JJ’s C shooting and Lonzo’s passing and hoops IQ?

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Agreed. I'm more optimistic about Oubre getting back to his 35% from 3 and maybe adding a simple playmaking to his game (eg. kick outs on drives)... less optimistic about Lonzo fixing his shooting.

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OT Clippers just lost to Atlanta without Kawhi & PG13 [Covid protocols] & Beverly [injured] on 1st game of a 6 game road trip. They could potentially have as many losses as the Dubs in 3 more games. That would make things in the Pacific division interesting.

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This entire season is going to be so wild. Wire to wire. There's still a whole bunch of schedule to figure out, and then the play in, and *then* the playoffs.

It's weird because its technically a shorter season, but to me it feels like we have more wiggle room because of how streaky everyone is right now

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And I saw that the league and players assoc. are now talking about a 1 day All Star game in Atlanta in early March when there is supposed to be a week break. I think they should just give everybody the break.

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Feels like they should just postpone the ASG this year. It's a low-effort pickup game anyway... can play it in the summer when maybe the pandemic is in a better state.

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Olympics in the summer. Maybe. I thought the ASG was out this year. Sounds like Chris Paul is pushing for it now.

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It's two days at most for the ASG... Olympics would be in August anyway (I think?), if they're held at all.

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Jan 27, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Thinking about a primary guard rotation of Curry, Ball, Lee is pretty cool because it’s very easy to envision any two of them fitting well together.

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I mean, maybe? As Draymond insurance it's interesting, I suppose. But I could so easily see Ball needing to go to the bench and him and his dad not being okay with that. Especially next year.

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I think telling him they’d like him in the “Andre Igoudala role” might give him perspective.

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Jan 27, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I would prefer Lamelo, 3D. Could you arrange that, please?

I think the downside to Lonzo is that he is not a good shooter on any level. Even his FTs are poor and he's off to a very poor start in this season. He does rebound and he's an above average passer. The two contracts are several million apart, Oubre being the more expensive one. I don't see this happening. It would be out of character for the Warriors to do this. OTOH, Zion would be lovely.😁 I would also consider Ingram but the Pels would never do it.

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On a somewhat similar note, what do you guys think about John Collins? He's clashing a bit with Trae, and they'll probably look to deal him as they don't want to pay him the max (or near-max which he'll probably get as an RFA in next year's depleted free agency). Good 3 point shooter, tremendous lob threat and has decent defensive metrics too.

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I also think Collins would be a great addition to the Dubs, but Oubre makes much much more than he does. The #'s wouldn't work and we'd have to throw in some other assets/players.

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Jan 27, 2021Liked by punk basketball

They still have the DPE if they’re willing to use pick(s).

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They need to add in a throw-in like Tony Snell and the money works. The question being can we offer anything to ATL to make it worth it for them. Minn pick gets it done but is probably an overpay. Do our future FRPs work?

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How about our own pick if it’s 1-20?

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I'd do that in a heartbeat. Highly doubt that's enough though.

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Jan 27, 2021Liked by punk basketball

BKisforSF needs GIFs, badly

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In this line.

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I like Oubre's passion and bounciness. He just needs more time in Kerr's system.

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For sure, said so himself last night!

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assuming the front office is going to keep Oubre, which i dont know why they wouldnt, is there anything else we could offer that gets lonzo over here? Backup floor general, solid D, heads up passing I know many of us think he could be a solid contributor. Any way we can combine some of our kiddos +pick?

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Paschall and Wanamaker, perhaps? That would leave us thin up front though.

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That's the problem- it's trading depth you need for something you don't need.

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Lonzo would help on D and ball movement but as you say, we would be thin up front, and we also need Paschall's firepower off the bench —unless we're getting a solid scorer back, which Lonzo ain't.

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eventually we get Chris back but yup until then thats a thin front.

Fair point, Lonzo doesnt solve scoring needs. lou williams or something sure.

OTOH,Im suspicious of Pascall. Just by the eyeballs, he's getting less effective as peeps are starting to counter adjust to him at backup center. could be all smoke, but itll be up to him to adjust to the slightly heightened attention.

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obvi kiddos meaning non-wise kiddos

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if someone was going to look at Wiggins pre- and post-Warriors stats, which would you all be most interested in?

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3's off the dribble vs pull-up 2's (6-15 feet) off the dribble. Seems like he's excellent at the latter and meh at the former

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I am intrigued by his handles. AST to TOV rate?

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Jan 27, 2021Liked by punk basketball

A couple of things would be super interesting to evaluate:

1. His 3P% is up. Is it real (i.e. is he getting more wide-open catch and shoot looks) or will it fall back down to ~35% (he's just on a hot streak)?

2. Touches/Usage Rate/Isolation rate. Should all be appreciably down but nice to confirm.

3. Number of off-ball screening actions he was involved in.

Any of these would be really great.

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...yes.

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Jan 27, 2021Liked by punk basketball

if i understand your question: a shot chart heat-map of shot selection and efficiency pre vs. post... some sort of defensive equivalent (if that's even possible)?

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I actually don't hate Lonzo Ball and think he could be a useful SDot-type player for a team like the Dubs with his defense and his passing ability. That being said, don't think I'd trade Oubre for him, especially at this low point in Oubre's value.

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A big part of SDot's value was his ability to score stabilizing points in a pinch with that money fadeaway though. Lonzo doesn't seem to have anything along the same lines right now, and that's a big knock against him.

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Jan 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I'd flip that viewpoint and say it's not selling low on Oubre, it's buying low on Ball.

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We need a shooting PG. Ball is problematic in this area. His FT is abominable. No, no.

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That's fair, since Ball has also had a slow start to the season from all accounts. Would you make that trade, straight up?

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In a vacuum, yes. I just think their values and upsides are relatively equal and Lonzo's game is a way better fit.

But maybe there's a better trade out there.

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I’m in this line. I think Lonzo can play alongside Steph and run a 2nd unit as well.

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Jan 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I hate how easily I get attached to our players. It's been 17 games and I'm vehemently against trading Oubre lol

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Well for ball sure, that's a big N O.

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Yeah he's not a lost cause either. Although him and Wiggins are established NBA vets at this point I still consider them to be rookies when it comes to learning to play winning basketball. I expect those two to be much better the more games they get in with the Warriors.

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He's a vet but he's only 25...

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Already in his 6th season. Sometimes I forget Looney's only 24 too. Feels like that guys been around since forever.

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Yeah I didn't realize Looney came into the league when he was 19 right? He plays like a 4 year college player

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Typo: Check your home keys. You misspelled "35" when typing Looney's age.

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Going to miss him when he retires next year :(

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All those screens he used to set for Chris Mullin back in the day.

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He's provided this team with more 1st downs than any other player in history

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