It is starting to become slim pickin's at the Free Agent table. Like finally showing up in the Hotel's continental breakfast room and all that is left is bran muffins. It appears that the biggest deterrent to hitching to the Dubs wagon is minutes availability. Players want to play and everyone knows Poole, Moody, JK and Wiseman are going to get every opportunity to eat as many minutes as they can. Looks like we are going to have to go all in on youth this year. I'm confident that if we can push them hard and long early, we will see real benefits by the end of the year. But it's a long way from OPJ, Beli-GP2, Andre, JTA & D Lee. That's a lot of institutional knowledge and skill to lose in one year.
Still holding out hope Bob has at least one solid vet up his sleeve.
At this point, I'd rather they try to change Beli's mind to return for another year or two by matching what he gets in Turkiye. We need at least some veteran leadership, and someone who knows the system and is proven to play well in it.
thinking about it, been kind of a bummer week for Warriors fans
we lost fan favorite the Young Glove; three of our exciting young players are injured (one new, two lingering); JoKu's visa troubles robbed us of getting to seem him play; Moody was meh; and now the signing have just ground to a halt
otoh, two weeks ago was the championship parade, so perspective I guess
If you want some perspective you can always become an A’s fan! Halfway through the season we’re setting loser records, all the prospects we just traded for are shit or injured or both, and Frankie Montas, our all star level starting pitcher, who was due to be traded at the deadline in 4 weeks, just got pulled from his last start with a likely injury.
The playoff run all the way to the parade far exceeded my expectations, so I'm ok with a down couple of weeks. That being said, the GPII loss is a big one. I think I will go try to see dubs play Portland next year. I always like seeing Dame play and the added excitement of GPII trying to shut down Steph will be must watch basketball.
I'm trying to think about what the decisions to let JTA and D.Lee walk tell us about what the FO is thinking right now. My guess is that they really think they can get better (or different) vet minimums than those two guys. I think there is an outside chance that they would give Gui Santos a rookie deal, but I'm kind of guessing no - more likely they stash him - or he gets the 2nd two way and Q.Spoon gets cut.
So if they really think they can get better / different vet minimums than those two guys - I'm surprised it's taking this long. Feels like a ring chase would know there are not a lot of seats on the Warriors bench and would just take one if offered. I hope that they have some good options ahead of D.Lee and JTA, those guys were alright to have on the roster.
Aside from the core 3 + Andre & Livingston & Loon, who have the Warriors kept on their roster for more than 3 yrs? They change the pieces up every couple of years. They did go 3 on DWest, Zaza & Javale. But after that 3rd year, they moved on and did a re-set. Only one of their draft picks has really panned out from that lost season. But in the NBA, one pick out of 3 is not that bad for one year. I do wonder what Smiley could have become if they had Deckie on the staff when he was trying to figure it out. There wasn't a lot of player development going on then [at least not to the degree it is now] - just throw the rooks in the deep end and see if they can swim in NBA waters. Not the best way to go about it. After Wiseman struggled in deep, they rethought their operating orocedure because they didn't want to fail with a #2 pick. What if Jama had been on staff when they drafted Jacob Evans? Things to ponder...
I think it's likely that Weatherspoon makes the roster one way or another. They like him a lot, he knows the system, he can guard most guards and some wings, he's a good cutter, keeps the ball moving, and might still have some shooting potential - he had some big shooting performances in the g league last year and I'm sure he's working on his shot more this summer.
I also think you're maybe overthinking the JTA/DLee stuff a bit. Overall, both regressed this year (despite DLee playing very well early in the year), and simultaneously they're still good enough to be in most teams' rotation (towards the back end) and get regular playing time. With the Warriors, that is not the case - DDV, Moody, Kuminga, and likely Wiseman are going to get minutes over them this year, and possibly Weatherspoon too if he makes the roster since he's a significantly better perimeter defender than either and at least equivalent to JTA in terms of cutting/shooting.
JTA and DLee both want to play more, which means going to other teams.
Both Lee and JTA fell out of favor in Kerr's rotation for the playoffs. I have no problem with letting these players go and wishing them well. We needed a change and with Santos, Rollins, Quinones, and whoever else they sign stepping in, I see lots of possibility for the future. DDV was a great add. Add in our 3 rookies from last season, and the developmental coaches have their hands full to mold these guys into Warriors. Just a bit surprised at how weak this California Classic team is for us. Let's hope the SL team is put together with more thought.
I think it’s one of two things: either they *thought* that they could get someone better for those spots (likely someone who already signed given what’s left), and Lee and JTA weren’t gonna hang around to find out, or Lee and JTA didn’t want to be relegated to the end of the bench in their dwindling prime basketball years. I think both of them will likely get a lot more minutes, and thus potential future earnings, playing elsewhere. Wish em the best!
I think for JTA and DLee, the thought is that at 30 y/o and multiple years on the team, they have hit their peak. And that peak proved to be still unable to contribute positively in the playoffs. So it makes sense to pivot to other guys, either vets who can contribute now or young guys who still have room for growth. If they go the youth route to fill the final spots, I think there is definitely risk to their regular season record (because those young guys now are probably worse than JTA/DLee now), but I can see the argument that they want the young lottery picks to just get as many minutes as possible in the regular season anyway.
the best guy out there is probably TJ Warren, I just think it's pretty unlikely he comes here given the front office's commitment to Kuminga getting playing time (maybe he thinks Celebrini is That Dude tho)
I’m in on this. Sign up QW. If RR moves to the 2-way slot, Spoons gets a full roster spot.
Fill in the PF/C position with TJ/Juancho or another vet min and we get ourselves a vet ball handler (assuming Andre doesn’t want in). I know we have 30, Dray, JP, and DDC can handle a little, but it would be useful to have another person to keep the potato hopping and to dime up JW in a PnR. Andre and Beli moved the ball quite a bit in our 2nd unit last season.
Also if we start resting Steph & Dray more this season that additional ball handler will be needed. I’m not sure having RR take on that responsibility will bode well for wins.
I was trying to go through Perk's article from June 30 and figure that out. A lot of posters have been saying Ibaka. I've thought Hassan Whiteside would not be a bad option. I think they are both still available. But who knows, you've got a put a lot of effort in to figure out what's going on with each of these players. I suppose that's what the dubs FO does all day!
That makes sense for the original "asking price" coming from the Nets, but don't think the Warriors would entertain that. Although certainly unpopular, I think an argument can be made that Wiggins + Wiseman OR Kuminga + 2fr may make sense for the Warriors. I wouldn't include Poole though.
Anyway, there is probably something out there that would make more sense for all parties than a trade to the dubs. But until it happens, the speculation will never end.
Hey, even as a stalking horse, the Warriors can do their cause quite a bit of good by getting in on the Durant trade discussions.
Even if they never intend to make an offer in a million years (which I very much believe is the case here), just the threat of the Warriors trading for KD might be enough to cause panic and desperation in the teams that are actually bidding. Which might pump the price up to the point that it hurts the acquiring team more than they want it to.
Maybe the Suns freak out and trade both Booker and Ayton in a multi-way trade for KD.
Maybe Toronto gets frisky enough and caves in on the Nets demand for the conversation to start with BOTH Barnes AND Siakam, surrendering a truly insane package.
Maybe Miami throws everything but Jimmy Butker into the offer and tries to get KD, even if it means they have no young players or FRP’s for the rest of the decade.
Whatever the case may be, the Warriors can benefit by being a part of the conversation even if they literally do nothing else other than a due diligence courtesy inquiry into KD’s asking price.
I came into this draft with pretty low expectations given GSW having less-than-exciting draft position. I was fine with it since we’d kinda flukes our way into 3 lottery picks in the previous two years and hit the lottery with Poole. We were champs again (fuck yeah 🤙🏼) and I figured the days of adding to the young core were over, but I’m feeling pretty good about this draft haul. It’s not hard to imagine all three guys playing well above their respective draft slot.
Poole-Moody-Wiggins-Kuminga-Wiseman-PBJ-Rollins-Looney-Santos-DDV is a super intriguing group of young players. It’s a nice blend of both bonafide NBA players who are still improving and young guys with mind-boggling potential. There’s also a blend of of length, BBIQ and athleticism. Watching these guys develop as our core inevitably ages will be fascinating.
> It’s not hard to imagine all three guys playing well above their respective draft slot.
There's a standard post-draft optimism that usually settles in, which kinda has to be the case here since we haven't even seen Baldwin or Rollins play since the draft. Most people here went from decrying the Baldwin pick to liking it within a day or two, I'm pretty sure I was the only person who voted for him in the draft tourney. We did the same for Nedovic, Bell, McCaw, etc. We did it for Poole too although he ended up working out. Admittedly, we didn't do it much for Jacob Evans.
It is pretty unlikely that either Rollins or Santos does anything in the NBA given their draft position. I can definitely imagine it but to expect it is to expect the Warriors to beat the odds twice in the same draft. This is the same FO who drafted Paschall and Smailagic in the second round (with higher picks than either Rollins or Santos) and neither of those guys look like they will make NBA careers happen.
I’m not saying this year’s draft lot is going to be Hall of Famers. PBJ’s reasonable upside is a player much better than a typical #28 pick. If Rollins ever becomes part of a 10-man rotation and/or Santos ever makes the team, they’d both be playing well above their draft slot. My point was that all three show signs of promise.
Didn't EP finish All-Rookie? Of course, that doesn't mean he is one of the best players in that draft. But given his draft position, I think that pick still belongs in Bob Meyer's goody bag. I think the hope, and goal, is for guys like this to develop into D Lee or JTA quality end rotation guys. Learn the system inside and out, play with hustle, limit mistakes, and try to hold down the fort for 4-6 minute stretches. I think Dubs filled their Athletic quotient with Wiseman-JK-Moody picks and prioritized IQ/Feel in this draft. And I think that's what you want when replacing guys like D Lee (w/ Rollins) & JTA (w/ Baldwin).
I think Rollins gets a couple extra expectation points since the FO allegedly wanted him at 30… yes it’s the same FO that drafted Paschall, but it’s also the same FO that “reached” to grab Poole at 28
It's obviously a bit more amplified on a single team fan site, but overall there is a huge positive bias when it comes to the draft in general.
IIRC, even lottery picks have a 50% chance of not getting a second contract. The downside is almost always bigger than people imagine. Even for great prospects. I remember people saying Cade's (who I think is a great prospect) floor was Khris Middleton. Middleton is an all-star! Basically 3-5 prospects in the last 25 years have an all-star floor, if that many.
But yeah, only commenting on Rollins and Santos. They gotta show some real stuff before getting the benefit of the doubt given where they were drafted and how players from those draft positions do historically.
I believe the drafting of Eric Paschal was the absolute height of Hubris here on LGW (at least throughout the second half of that rookie year)
Before that, Michael Frazier was the one player that had people on GSOM cursing your lineage when you dared to even question how much he was even going to be able to contribute as a rookie FA signing
We still all some doozies from time to time, but we’ve really come a long way with our immediate hot takes.
Just saying, we had people calling Paschal the Draymond replacement
Paschal was a 1st team all-rookie and had a legit rookie season as the only bright spot on that 15-win team. It wasn't like everyone was getting hyped about Jacob Evans the same way. Still a resounding success given his draft slot.
My whole thing was Pashcall was "If he could just tweak his 3pt shot."
But then that next offseason where he came in out of shape (which forced him to miss that Warriors scrimmage thing, IIRC), and then his jumpshot looking exactly the same really turned me off on him.
Paschall looked unstoppable on offense a lot of times his rookie season. Sure, his jumper had that "kicks his own butt" quirk and didn't go in all that often, but that was something that off-season work could fix! And his defense was clearly a problem, but most rookies struggle on defense, so overall there was a lot to believe in at the time.
Really it was training camp of his second year when he showed up out of shape and with the same broken jumper that signaled he wasn't gonna be an NBA player.
We totally sucked in Paschall's rookie year. Klay was out, Steph was out except for 5 games, KD was gone, Dre was gone, Liv was retired, Draymond wasn't his old self. Poole was bad. Paschall was the only one who could do much of anything so by default he was the guy.
I never quite got the connection there… without the standing reach it’s hard to imagine him playing big, and without the passing I just lose the connection. I still think Liddell can be good, he just has no positional versatility, and will have to lose weight and improve his slashing.
This is what I’ve been trying to impress upon people who are perpetually disappointed by what the front office is doing — we have a pretty good idea of what we have in Poole-Wiggins- Looney to add to the core three. So if even 3-4 of those remaining players pan out the way we all imagine they could, we’re in a very good spot.
I just don’t think we need to keep pining for another star to maintain success — just being patient with the talent we have should be good for now 🤷🏾♂️
Thanks for this breakdown. It's a reminder to me that I don't /really/ know what I'm looking at. It's obvious when a guy is beating his man, scoring, or harassing someone on defense. But the context is helpful. I didn't really know how these games were being utilized in player development, and it makes all kinds of sense.
Kudos to Nate and the others who contributed their insightful observations.
Thanks Nate! After watching him for two games (I’ve only seen highlights), do you think Santos has more of an immediate future as a 2-way or SCW with than draft-and-stash we were expecting? It looks like he’s got some serious guard skills for a guy as big as he is.
He’s relatively young and I think he clearly has talent, but I’m not sure what his NBA role will be based on what little we’ve seen of him (and I don’t know enough about Brazilian basketball to know whether that is adequate prep for the NBA).
It’s clear he can do a little bit of everything on the court, but doesn’t do one thing well enough where I’d say he’s ready to contribute. On the other hand, dude is definitely better than guys like Nemanja Nedovic or Jacob Evans, who the warriors spent first round picks on.
So the fact that they a) spent a pick on him, b) probably got a strong reference from Barbosa and c) now have him playing summer league probably does point toward him getting strong consideration for a two-way.
But we still haven’t learned all that much yet — to me, they had him playing two different roles in two games and we still need time to figure out if that first game was just a fluke 🤷🏾♂️
I have a feeling that they'll want him here. The things he needs to work on to have a chance to see an NBA floor are mostly technical/processing speed things - his C&S jumper, defensive techniques, tightening his handle, making quicker reads, maybe adding some floater/baby hook skills. Those are all things they can intensively work on with him in Santa Cruz and possibly rapidly accelerate his growth. The physical tools are there, as is the general feel for the game that Smiley, for example, was utterly deficient in.
The fact that he wants to come here explicitly to work with the developmental staff could tip things in his favor. Particularly if he shows more flashes in Vegas, when the SL team should have more cohesion and better players around him on the team, I think he'll be in Santa Cruz this coming year.
G-League stash is an option, right? seems like it might give the best combo of team flexibility (keep rights but avoid starting NBA contract clock), development opportunities, and from what he's said seems like he'd rather play in Santa Cruz than Minas Gerais
This makes the most sense to me. Put him in the Warriors system in SC, have him work on his jump shot (he's just 20, loads of time to improve), and, if he gets better, put him on a 2-way next year.
I would want him getting into our culture and minutes against g league level players asap, if he can get right we have a backup unit of poole moody santos kuminga wiseman
I think that might be a little unrealistic hope for Santos. I also think Poole-DDV-Moody-Kuminga-Wiseman is the back up unit as far as non-starter minutes go.
Is it wrong of me to hope that Kyrie gets traded to Miami?
I'd love to see what Jimmy Butler would do the first time Kyrie tried to burn sage on the court. Plus, Spoelstra's disgusted look is top 3 among NBA coaches.
Thanks for the article Nate. I haven’t watched any games, so this gives a nice perspective on the performances to date. I’m glad Lester settled into this game too.
It’s a real shame we can’t see RR get to work, particularly as he is in a potential roster spot.
As of today, avg years nba experience
1-5 Curry-Klay-Wiggs-Dray-Loon = MANY
6-10 Poole, DDV, Moody, JK, J Dub = a pinch over 2
11-15 Rollins (tbd), PBJ (tbd), Crickets = 0
Wow. I hear Jo, Bo & Steve are flying to the Hamptons to meet with Andre.
It is starting to become slim pickin's at the Free Agent table. Like finally showing up in the Hotel's continental breakfast room and all that is left is bran muffins. It appears that the biggest deterrent to hitching to the Dubs wagon is minutes availability. Players want to play and everyone knows Poole, Moody, JK and Wiseman are going to get every opportunity to eat as many minutes as they can. Looks like we are going to have to go all in on youth this year. I'm confident that if we can push them hard and long early, we will see real benefits by the end of the year. But it's a long way from OPJ, Beli-GP2, Andre, JTA & D Lee. That's a lot of institutional knowledge and skill to lose in one year.
Still holding out hope Bob has at least one solid vet up his sleeve.
At this point, I'd rather they try to change Beli's mind to return for another year or two by matching what he gets in Turkiye. We need at least some veteran leadership, and someone who knows the system and is proven to play well in it.
Yes, assuming that door is still open.
I love a good bran muffin
Looks like TJ Warren is off the board. signing with BKL
Just a reminder, we got to see a Finals MVP performance from Steph Curry a couple of weeks ago.
thinking about it, been kind of a bummer week for Warriors fans
we lost fan favorite the Young Glove; three of our exciting young players are injured (one new, two lingering); JoKu's visa troubles robbed us of getting to seem him play; Moody was meh; and now the signing have just ground to a halt
otoh, two weeks ago was the championship parade, so perspective I guess
I'd like 'what have you done for me lately?' for $500, Alex.
:)
#younGlove
If you want some perspective you can always become an A’s fan! Halfway through the season we’re setting loser records, all the prospects we just traded for are shit or injured or both, and Frankie Montas, our all star level starting pitcher, who was due to be traded at the deadline in 4 weeks, just got pulled from his last start with a likely injury.
makes me grateful to not care about baseball
The playoff run all the way to the parade far exceeded my expectations, so I'm ok with a down couple of weeks. That being said, the GPII loss is a big one. I think I will go try to see dubs play Portland next year. I always like seeing Dame play and the added excitement of GPII trying to shut down Steph will be must watch basketball.
how did Quinn play?
I'm trying to think about what the decisions to let JTA and D.Lee walk tell us about what the FO is thinking right now. My guess is that they really think they can get better (or different) vet minimums than those two guys. I think there is an outside chance that they would give Gui Santos a rookie deal, but I'm kind of guessing no - more likely they stash him - or he gets the 2nd two way and Q.Spoon gets cut.
So if they really think they can get better / different vet minimums than those two guys - I'm surprised it's taking this long. Feels like a ring chase would know there are not a lot of seats on the Warriors bench and would just take one if offered. I hope that they have some good options ahead of D.Lee and JTA, those guys were alright to have on the roster.
Aside from the core 3 + Andre & Livingston & Loon, who have the Warriors kept on their roster for more than 3 yrs? They change the pieces up every couple of years. They did go 3 on DWest, Zaza & Javale. But after that 3rd year, they moved on and did a re-set. Only one of their draft picks has really panned out from that lost season. But in the NBA, one pick out of 3 is not that bad for one year. I do wonder what Smiley could have become if they had Deckie on the staff when he was trying to figure it out. There wasn't a lot of player development going on then [at least not to the degree it is now] - just throw the rooks in the deep end and see if they can swim in NBA waters. Not the best way to go about it. After Wiseman struggled in deep, they rethought their operating orocedure because they didn't want to fail with a #2 pick. What if Jama had been on staff when they drafted Jacob Evans? Things to ponder...
Even Dwest, Zaza, and Javale were all only 2 years (2017 and 2018 winning teams). None of those guys were around in the 2019 finals team.
I think it's likely that Weatherspoon makes the roster one way or another. They like him a lot, he knows the system, he can guard most guards and some wings, he's a good cutter, keeps the ball moving, and might still have some shooting potential - he had some big shooting performances in the g league last year and I'm sure he's working on his shot more this summer.
I also think you're maybe overthinking the JTA/DLee stuff a bit. Overall, both regressed this year (despite DLee playing very well early in the year), and simultaneously they're still good enough to be in most teams' rotation (towards the back end) and get regular playing time. With the Warriors, that is not the case - DDV, Moody, Kuminga, and likely Wiseman are going to get minutes over them this year, and possibly Weatherspoon too if he makes the roster since he's a significantly better perimeter defender than either and at least equivalent to JTA in terms of cutting/shooting.
JTA and DLee both want to play more, which means going to other teams.
Both Lee and JTA fell out of favor in Kerr's rotation for the playoffs. I have no problem with letting these players go and wishing them well. We needed a change and with Santos, Rollins, Quinones, and whoever else they sign stepping in, I see lots of possibility for the future. DDV was a great add. Add in our 3 rookies from last season, and the developmental coaches have their hands full to mold these guys into Warriors. Just a bit surprised at how weak this California Classic team is for us. Let's hope the SL team is put together with more thought.
I think it’s one of two things: either they *thought* that they could get someone better for those spots (likely someone who already signed given what’s left), and Lee and JTA weren’t gonna hang around to find out, or Lee and JTA didn’t want to be relegated to the end of the bench in their dwindling prime basketball years. I think both of them will likely get a lot more minutes, and thus potential future earnings, playing elsewhere. Wish em the best!
I think for JTA and DLee, the thought is that at 30 y/o and multiple years on the team, they have hit their peak. And that peak proved to be still unable to contribute positively in the playoffs. So it makes sense to pivot to other guys, either vets who can contribute now or young guys who still have room for growth. If they go the youth route to fill the final spots, I think there is definitely risk to their regular season record (because those young guys now are probably worse than JTA/DLee now), but I can see the argument that they want the young lottery picks to just get as many minutes as possible in the regular season anyway.
Who are the best ring chasing vet mins out there? Or possible with the MLE?
the best guy out there is probably TJ Warren, I just think it's pretty unlikely he comes here given the front office's commitment to Kuminga getting playing time (maybe he thinks Celebrini is That Dude tho)
I'd like to see Juancho & Frank Kaminsky (or maybe Gorgui Dieng; Marquese Chriss, for the vibes, would also be good with me)
& then I'd like to see Quinn get a shot, I'm a believer in that dude
I’m in on this. Sign up QW. If RR moves to the 2-way slot, Spoons gets a full roster spot.
Fill in the PF/C position with TJ/Juancho or another vet min and we get ourselves a vet ball handler (assuming Andre doesn’t want in). I know we have 30, Dray, JP, and DDC can handle a little, but it would be useful to have another person to keep the potato hopping and to dime up JW in a PnR. Andre and Beli moved the ball quite a bit in our 2nd unit last season.
Also if we start resting Steph & Dray more this season that additional ball handler will be needed. I’m not sure having RR take on that responsibility will bode well for wins.
I was trying to go through Perk's article from June 30 and figure that out. A lot of posters have been saying Ibaka. I've thought Hassan Whiteside would not be a bad option. I think they are both still available. But who knows, you've got a put a lot of effort in to figure out what's going on with each of these players. I suppose that's what the dubs FO does all day!
Hassan a decent big body rebounder, but I would rather have a stretch C
Ibaka’s gone, Whiteside is still on the board I think.
I’m writing it here, although OT. The price theorized for Durant, makes that trade smell like catastrophic failure all over.
What is the price?
I heard that the Nets asked for: Poole, Wiggins, Kuminga, Wiseman + 2 FR picks
Pretty sure that did not happen.
The rumor happened. Maybe the actual offer didn’t.
LOL.
Thanks for the quote, Mr. Marks. We are not interested in a deal at this time.
Best of luck with your quest to get a trade you are satisfied with. We will be watching from the sidelines with great interest.
That makes sense for the original "asking price" coming from the Nets, but don't think the Warriors would entertain that. Although certainly unpopular, I think an argument can be made that Wiggins + Wiseman OR Kuminga + 2fr may make sense for the Warriors. I wouldn't include Poole though.
Anyway, there is probably something out there that would make more sense for all parties than a trade to the dubs. But until it happens, the speculation will never end.
Hey, even as a stalking horse, the Warriors can do their cause quite a bit of good by getting in on the Durant trade discussions.
Even if they never intend to make an offer in a million years (which I very much believe is the case here), just the threat of the Warriors trading for KD might be enough to cause panic and desperation in the teams that are actually bidding. Which might pump the price up to the point that it hurts the acquiring team more than they want it to.
Maybe the Suns freak out and trade both Booker and Ayton in a multi-way trade for KD.
Maybe Toronto gets frisky enough and caves in on the Nets demand for the conversation to start with BOTH Barnes AND Siakam, surrendering a truly insane package.
Maybe Miami throws everything but Jimmy Butker into the offer and tries to get KD, even if it means they have no young players or FRP’s for the rest of the decade.
Whatever the case may be, the Warriors can benefit by being a part of the conversation even if they literally do nothing else other than a due diligence courtesy inquiry into KD’s asking price.
Bob Myers to Sean Marks: I've had a weird week, know any good jokes?
Marks: I'll swap you Durant for Poole, Wiggins, Kuminga, Wiseman + 2 FR picks.
Myers laughs heartily, thanks Marks for the chuckle, says goodbye, and hangs up.
Moody was glaringly upset for having been whacked. He played very nervously. I wouldn’t worry about that performance.
Anybody post this yet? Sorry if duplicate: Wiseman 5-on-5 apparently went well yesterday.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/james-wiseman-still-track-summer-league-debut-after-5-5?cid=Yahoo&partner=ya4nbcs
I came into this draft with pretty low expectations given GSW having less-than-exciting draft position. I was fine with it since we’d kinda flukes our way into 3 lottery picks in the previous two years and hit the lottery with Poole. We were champs again (fuck yeah 🤙🏼) and I figured the days of adding to the young core were over, but I’m feeling pretty good about this draft haul. It’s not hard to imagine all three guys playing well above their respective draft slot.
Poole-Moody-Wiggins-Kuminga-Wiseman-PBJ-Rollins-Looney-Santos-DDV is a super intriguing group of young players. It’s a nice blend of both bonafide NBA players who are still improving and young guys with mind-boggling potential. There’s also a blend of of length, BBIQ and athleticism. Watching these guys develop as our core inevitably ages will be fascinating.
> It’s not hard to imagine all three guys playing well above their respective draft slot.
There's a standard post-draft optimism that usually settles in, which kinda has to be the case here since we haven't even seen Baldwin or Rollins play since the draft. Most people here went from decrying the Baldwin pick to liking it within a day or two, I'm pretty sure I was the only person who voted for him in the draft tourney. We did the same for Nedovic, Bell, McCaw, etc. We did it for Poole too although he ended up working out. Admittedly, we didn't do it much for Jacob Evans.
It is pretty unlikely that either Rollins or Santos does anything in the NBA given their draft position. I can definitely imagine it but to expect it is to expect the Warriors to beat the odds twice in the same draft. This is the same FO who drafted Paschall and Smailagic in the second round (with higher picks than either Rollins or Santos) and neither of those guys look like they will make NBA careers happen.
I’m not saying this year’s draft lot is going to be Hall of Famers. PBJ’s reasonable upside is a player much better than a typical #28 pick. If Rollins ever becomes part of a 10-man rotation and/or Santos ever makes the team, they’d both be playing well above their draft slot. My point was that all three show signs of promise.
Didn't EP finish All-Rookie? Of course, that doesn't mean he is one of the best players in that draft. But given his draft position, I think that pick still belongs in Bob Meyer's goody bag. I think the hope, and goal, is for guys like this to develop into D Lee or JTA quality end rotation guys. Learn the system inside and out, play with hustle, limit mistakes, and try to hold down the fort for 4-6 minute stretches. I think Dubs filled their Athletic quotient with Wiseman-JK-Moody picks and prioritized IQ/Feel in this draft. And I think that's what you want when replacing guys like D Lee (w/ Rollins) & JTA (w/ Baldwin).
I think Rollins gets a couple extra expectation points since the FO allegedly wanted him at 30… yes it’s the same FO that drafted Paschall, but it’s also the same FO that “reached” to grab Poole at 28
It's obviously a bit more amplified on a single team fan site, but overall there is a huge positive bias when it comes to the draft in general.
IIRC, even lottery picks have a 50% chance of not getting a second contract. The downside is almost always bigger than people imagine. Even for great prospects. I remember people saying Cade's (who I think is a great prospect) floor was Khris Middleton. Middleton is an all-star! Basically 3-5 prospects in the last 25 years have an all-star floor, if that many.
Edit: This is a good piece to read on overall draft outcomes in a fairly large sample - https://theathletic.com/2736596/2021/07/29/nba-draft-is-exciting-time-for-fans-and-teams-alike-unless-youre-reading-this-partnow/
And the same fanbase that believed in Pascall & Smiley after a few minute flashes! Gui & Jessup FTW!
That said, we have way more good "rods in the fire" this go around... many more chances at greatness.
I don't recall the fan base believing in Smiley. He was a nice guy, and we wanted to see him succeed, but he never showed much other than being tall.
I was hella hyped for Smailagic after this play lol:
https://youtu.be/9AqJreaNgJY?t=136
But yeah, only commenting on Rollins and Santos. They gotta show some real stuff before getting the benefit of the doubt given where they were drafted and how players from those draft positions do historically.
Man if smiley jumper ever came along hed be a nice small ball five lol
such a hilariously below the rim dunk
Smiley highlights are the best highlights.
I believe the drafting of Eric Paschal was the absolute height of Hubris here on LGW (at least throughout the second half of that rookie year)
Before that, Michael Frazier was the one player that had people on GSOM cursing your lineage when you dared to even question how much he was even going to be able to contribute as a rookie FA signing
We still all some doozies from time to time, but we’ve really come a long way with our immediate hot takes.
Just saying, we had people calling Paschal the Draymond replacement
Paschal was a 1st team all-rookie and had a legit rookie season as the only bright spot on that 15-win team. It wasn't like everyone was getting hyped about Jacob Evans the same way. Still a resounding success given his draft slot.
My whole thing was Pashcall was "If he could just tweak his 3pt shot."
But then that next offseason where he came in out of shape (which forced him to miss that Warriors scrimmage thing, IIRC), and then his jumpshot looking exactly the same really turned me off on him.
Interesting that Paschall shot the 3 pretty good this past year (37%) for the Jazz.
Paschall looked unstoppable on offense a lot of times his rookie season. Sure, his jumper had that "kicks his own butt" quirk and didn't go in all that often, but that was something that off-season work could fix! And his defense was clearly a problem, but most rookies struggle on defense, so overall there was a lot to believe in at the time.
Really it was training camp of his second year when he showed up out of shape and with the same broken jumper that signaled he wasn't gonna be an NBA player.
We totally sucked in Paschall's rookie year. Klay was out, Steph was out except for 5 games, KD was gone, Dre was gone, Liv was retired, Draymond wasn't his old self. Poole was bad. Paschall was the only one who could do much of anything so by default he was the guy.
yeah, first jumper I saw him take that pre-season (or maybe Summer League) I knew Paschall wasn't the guy
But with better shooting!!!
People were kinda saying this about Liddell too.
I never quite got the connection there… without the standing reach it’s hard to imagine him playing big, and without the passing I just lose the connection. I still think Liddell can be good, he just has no positional versatility, and will have to lose weight and improve his slashing.
I think DDV is a one and done unfortunately :/
We're gonna be one and done for FAs going forward... just gotta get used to it.
For sure, I'm just saying we're probably not going to be watching him develop
Yeah, he's gone after this season. Even if he gets hurt and would be likelier to opt in, they would probably consider trading him imo.
There’s just so many good bets in there that it’ll be really surprising if none of them pan out…
“Poole-Moody-Wiggins-Kuminga-Wiseman-PBJ-Rollins-Looney-Santos-DDV”
This is what I’ve been trying to impress upon people who are perpetually disappointed by what the front office is doing — we have a pretty good idea of what we have in Poole-Wiggins- Looney to add to the core three. So if even 3-4 of those remaining players pan out the way we all imagine they could, we’re in a very good spot.
I just don’t think we need to keep pining for another star to maintain success — just being patient with the talent we have should be good for now 🤷🏾♂️
Thanks for this breakdown. It's a reminder to me that I don't /really/ know what I'm looking at. It's obvious when a guy is beating his man, scoring, or harassing someone on defense. But the context is helpful. I didn't really know how these games were being utilized in player development, and it makes all kinds of sense.
Kudos to Nate and the others who contributed their insightful observations.
Thanks Nate! After watching him for two games (I’ve only seen highlights), do you think Santos has more of an immediate future as a 2-way or SCW with than draft-and-stash we were expecting? It looks like he’s got some serious guard skills for a guy as big as he is.
I think that’s a good question…
He’s relatively young and I think he clearly has talent, but I’m not sure what his NBA role will be based on what little we’ve seen of him (and I don’t know enough about Brazilian basketball to know whether that is adequate prep for the NBA).
It’s clear he can do a little bit of everything on the court, but doesn’t do one thing well enough where I’d say he’s ready to contribute. On the other hand, dude is definitely better than guys like Nemanja Nedovic or Jacob Evans, who the warriors spent first round picks on.
So the fact that they a) spent a pick on him, b) probably got a strong reference from Barbosa and c) now have him playing summer league probably does point toward him getting strong consideration for a two-way.
But we still haven’t learned all that much yet — to me, they had him playing two different roles in two games and we still need time to figure out if that first game was just a fluke 🤷🏾♂️
I have a feeling that they'll want him here. The things he needs to work on to have a chance to see an NBA floor are mostly technical/processing speed things - his C&S jumper, defensive techniques, tightening his handle, making quicker reads, maybe adding some floater/baby hook skills. Those are all things they can intensively work on with him in Santa Cruz and possibly rapidly accelerate his growth. The physical tools are there, as is the general feel for the game that Smiley, for example, was utterly deficient in.
The fact that he wants to come here explicitly to work with the developmental staff could tip things in his favor. Particularly if he shows more flashes in Vegas, when the SL team should have more cohesion and better players around him on the team, I think he'll be in Santa Cruz this coming year.
G-League stash is an option, right? seems like it might give the best combo of team flexibility (keep rights but avoid starting NBA contract clock), development opportunities, and from what he's said seems like he'd rather play in Santa Cruz than Minas Gerais
This makes the most sense to me. Put him in the Warriors system in SC, have him work on his jump shot (he's just 20, loads of time to improve), and, if he gets better, put him on a 2-way next year.
I would want him getting into our culture and minutes against g league level players asap, if he can get right we have a backup unit of poole moody santos kuminga wiseman
I think that might be a little unrealistic hope for Santos. I also think Poole-DDV-Moody-Kuminga-Wiseman is the back up unit as far as non-starter minutes go.
I didnt mean this year, just moving forward
Getting him on the santa cruz warriors is unrealistic hope?
Is it wrong of me to hope that Kyrie gets traded to Miami?
I'd love to see what Jimmy Butler would do the first time Kyrie tried to burn sage on the court. Plus, Spoelstra's disgusted look is top 3 among NBA coaches.
It’s not wrong, but it’s not worth hoping for, for the exact reasons you mention that would make it fun to see 😜
Thanks for the article Nate. I haven’t watched any games, so this gives a nice perspective on the performances to date. I’m glad Lester settled into this game too.
It’s a real shame we can’t see RR get to work, particularly as he is in a potential roster spot.
Thanks for this detailed account. The East Bay Times article had pics but not a bit of insight about the game.