The Golden State Warriors kicked off 2020 with a whimper, winning just one, solitary game in the entire month of January. Though the injury ravaged Warriors sit at a league-worst 10-39, the Cleveland Cavaliers are not far behind, sitting in a three-way tie for second worst with a 13-36 record.
Maybe the rivalry has died down, with neither team fighting for anything more meaningful than just winning a rare game (both teams are 1-9 over their past ten contests), but maybe there’s still some fire to a matchup between two teams that faced each other in the Finals so often. But how much does the frustrated passion of Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson matter against a roster consisting of only one player that played against them in all those Finals showdowns of yore?
GAME DETAILS
WHO: Golden State Warriors (10-39) at Cleveland Cavaliers (13-36)
Stephen Curry’s evaluation is today, can he and Russell work together?
In a season that has been defined more by who wasn’t on the court than who was, this development is as important a date as there is this season. Curry hasn’t played since the day before Halloween, when he broke his non-shooting hand in a weird entangled fall.
He’s looked good warming up recently, and doesn’t seem to show any signs of being slowed down by his left hand.
Curry’s return will immediately improve the Warriors - who are rumored to make an official announcement either Sunday or Monday, as per Anthony Slater of the Athletic. It’s not a secret that Curry has been arguably the most impactful player of the past decade. As Tom Haberstroh pointed out recently, Curry was the undisputed king of on/off court impact over the past ten years:
With Curry on the court from Day 1 of 2010 through his broken hand on Oct. 30, 2019, the Warriors were +4,803.
The next closest player was some guy named Kevin Durant. Remember him, Warriors fans? KD finished the decade at +4,745.
LeBron James (+4,699), Chris Paul (+4,271) and Warriors teammate Klay Thompson (+3,675) round out the top five in plus/minus during the 2010s.
For Golden State, the immediate interest is in seeing him play alongside D’Angelo Russell. Can this sort of offensive-focused tandem not just coexist, but thrive? It’s the $117 million max contract sized question that is at the epicenter of all the questions surrounding the Warriors big offseason acquisition.
In limited time together, the early returns were not great. According to NBA.com’s lineup data, the duo of Curry and Russell appeared in four games together, sharing the court for a grand total of 74 minutes. The result: a net rating of -30.3 points (per 100 possessions); scoring at a rate of 96.6 points and coughing up 126.9 on defense.
Now, you have to take these numbers with a grain or three of salt, as not only are the 2-man lineup numbers wonky in general, but at just 74 minutes over the course of four games, there’s all sorts of caveats around forming judgments on small samples with two ball dominant players who haven’t had time to get used to each other.
Ironically, it was just this sort of lineup issue that Curry walked into when he joined the Warriors as a rookie alongside incumbent starting guard, Monta Ellis. For giggles, here is that old exchange, from media day, as transcribed by Tim Kawakami:
-Q: Can you see yourself playing with Curry in the backcourt?
-ELLIS: I can’t answer that. Us together? No.
-Q: Why not?
-ELLIS: Can’t. We just can’t.
-Q: Too small? Too similar?
-ELLIS: Just can’t.
-Q: The Warriors say you can.
-ELLIS: They say we can? Yeah. If they say it. But we can’t.
Without Curry, the Warriors have struggled more on offense than they have on the defensive side, but expect Golden State to be watching this tandem very closely as it’s success or failure will go a long way towards determining the team’s offseason priorities. So far, it doesn’t sound like the team has been floored with fantastic offers for Russell, and Monte Poole was on Twitter yesterday reminding everyone that the Warriors are “not yet feeling any real urgency.”
But it’s the “yet” part that is interesting. If the pairing continues to struggle, Golden State may be interested in lowering their asking price for Russell - who is young and talented and certain to draw interest… if the price is right.
How bad are the Cavs?
The Cleveland Cavaliers are in the unfortunate situation that is the result of LeBron James ditching the team after getting them to invest in his buddies. They’ve managed to extricate themselves from a very bad J.R. Smith contract, but are still carrying Tristan Thompson’s bloated deal, and trying to figure out what to do with Kevin Love.
In case you forgot, James pressured the team into signing J.R. Smith to a four-year, $77 million deal a year after Smith averaged 12 points per game on the team that beat an injury ravaged Warriors squad for the first title in franchise history. Smith was recently bought out by the Cavs, leaving about $1.5 million on the books for the privilege of not playing him over the next three seasons.
But Tristan Thompson is the real gem of the LeBron James era of contracts in Cleveland. He is making an astonishing $18.5 million dollars this year, as part of an outrageous five-year $88 million deal that will come to a merciful end after this season.
Finally, the last holdover: Kevin Love. A good-to-great player that just isn’t quite good enough to pull a subpar roster out of the cellar, he’s making around $29 million this year - the first in a four-year $120 million extension signed over the past offseason.
So in light of all that salary ballast, the Cavaliers roster isn’t doing too bad. With a team in the weird position that Cleveland finds themselves (old and bloated contracts alongside a ton of young players), it’s not too concerning that their net rating of -8.8 is essentially tied with the Warriors for worst in the league. This is a team that isn’t looking to the playoffs, so tanking for a good draft pick is one of the best outcomes they can hope for right now.
They’ve got an assortment of promising young players, though many of them may have ceilings closer to the top of the bench rotation, rather than high quality starters on a playoff team.
To add a wrinkle to this matchup, could there be some beef building? Was Colin Sexton snubbed for not making the rookie/sophmore game this year while Eric Paschall got the nod? Some people seem to think so:
The funny thing is, it’s an All Star game, so yes, playing for small market teams can indeed hurt a players chances.
There’s also the fun factor. Paschall has a game meant for the All Star format - where his burly shoulder-leading shots and above the rim explosiveness should translate well to the wide open style that is a feature of these games. Sexton scores more points, but his game is a bit less visually appealing.
I’m going to go out on a limb here, and predict a Golden State victory. Their second win of the year 2020!
The Cavs have the second-worse defense in the league, and the Warriors paltry offense should be able to make some headway. Hopefully the squad will be pumped up after getting some good news on Steph Curry’s return to add a little extra juice, because Golden State sure could use a win to lift everyone’s spirits.
And here’s a tank update, just for fun. Win or lose, there will be a silver lining for both teams tonight.
Per Slater, who had the most thorough tweet: “Steph Curry recovery update: Out another month, all 11 February games. Another re-evaluation in four weeks. Making steady progress. Team is "hopeful" for a March return. Curry clearly targeting the start of the month. He's been going through increased intensity shooting routines.” https://twitter.com/anthonyvslater/status/1223743312458285056?s=21
So, Slater goes on to point out that the math works out to Steph playing a maximum of 22 more games this season (assuming he comes back asap in March).
The tank is in extremely strong position, but I have a feeling that #1 pick slot is going to come down to the wire!
Thanks for the "poop", Commish! Need to share with you (getting old): Your comments were the reason I came out of the "shadows" and joined GSOM, 30000+ comments ago!
Personally I didn’t really no what to expect. Some of it, we’re making it up as we go. But for sure you’ll always have a game preview, thread and recap and then some stuff in between. I’m trying to keep up with a diary of sorts but we’ll see how it goes. Thanks for reading!
Dang, found you, Duby! Dubs falling behind my 20 wins for a successful season; maybe when Curry gets back they will go on a 10-0 win-streak! Is Sleepy in here?
Well, I applied for a job there. Wanted to run the entire State. Heard from them. They are still considering me I guess....Must have flipped out when they got my Executive Resume.....Hey, I had two Editor jobs on there; College and Grad School...about 40 years ago! Lol
Ugh, I applied once a few years ago, but living in Asia probably was part of the reason they said no. Plus, all of my experience in journalism is lifestyle and food. "Last night's game had a bold yet velvety structure, two forces clashing together in a display of seeming aggression that was merely a cover for deeper, subtler cooperation with brought out the rich essence and varied flavors of the 48-minute-stew. I mean, game."
Lol...you guys are worth 50 bucks...maybe a Europenny more! Besides, you need to get some REAL FANS in here besides all of you poor (now, invested) writers. Ol' Dino knows how to "fire" things up! I Sleepy around or he too cheap, or, can't handle the Commish Bball Brilliance? (Kidding, of course...)
A lot has happened since we last got together. As you can see from my new photo, I took up Olympic marksmanship...won a gold medal too at the Winter Olympics...
Everyone remembers the “Just can’t” part of Monta’s unwelcome, but don’t sleep on the “I can’t answer that.” Followed immediately by “Us together? No.”
Have you seen him working out and shooting during warmups? I just don't understand what his issue was and if it went away 100% or is this a 'look and see' activation?
The tank has to be 'on' in MN. Losing 10 in a row takes a real commitment; it's hard not to accidentally win one or run into a comparable team that's just a little worse. Any given NBA evening...
Yeah, no more SEO, no more word count nonsense (like the steph stuff woulda been cut into a separate article at GSOM). Plus, I'm writing for us now. There's some sort of artistic purity in there, but mostly this place has helped me refind my joy.
And Minny is falling apart. I don't know how much is chemistry (like is KAT all mad and playing weird?), but look at the roster. Who's their third best player? Fourth?
After KAT, it's like a 5-way-tie between players who are at best subpar-starter-level players.
But let's say we give Wiggins #2 for scoring and R. Cov #3 for 3-and-D wing status (though he's not been excelling on the 3 part...) I'd say it'd Teague, Deng, Layman, though I include that last name in a nod to potential as much as current production. I think he could be a near-nightly double-double-level PF (12-10 level) with occasional runs of hot 3pt shooting from the corner. He needs to work on his FT, though, or he'll be off the floor at the end of playoff games.
Hmm...no like buttons? No "Green" color for your buddies' dumb comments; just little hearts? I think I like it already!
Per Slater, who had the most thorough tweet: “Steph Curry recovery update: Out another month, all 11 February games. Another re-evaluation in four weeks. Making steady progress. Team is "hopeful" for a March return. Curry clearly targeting the start of the month. He's been going through increased intensity shooting routines.” https://twitter.com/anthonyvslater/status/1223743312458285056?s=21
So, Slater goes on to point out that the math works out to Steph playing a maximum of 22 more games this season (assuming he comes back asap in March).
The tank is in extremely strong position, but I have a feeling that #1 pick slot is going to come down to the wire!
Thanks for the "poop", Commish! Need to share with you (getting old): Your comments were the reason I came out of the "shadows" and joined GSOM, 30000+ comments ago!
Yeee! Glad to have you!
Great to visit with you. Is it going about as you guys expected?
Personally I didn’t really no what to expect. Some of it, we’re making it up as we go. But for sure you’ll always have a game preview, thread and recap and then some stuff in between. I’m trying to keep up with a diary of sorts but we’ll see how it goes. Thanks for reading!
thank you...
*know 🙄🤦🏻♂️
Dang, found you, Duby! Dubs falling behind my 20 wins for a successful season; maybe when Curry gets back they will go on a 10-0 win-streak! Is Sleepy in here?
Hey Dino! Great to see you here, man.
Welcome Dino!
Great to see you, thanks for making the move over from the Vox machine!!
Well, I applied for a job there. Wanted to run the entire State. Heard from them. They are still considering me I guess....Must have flipped out when they got my Executive Resume.....Hey, I had two Editor jobs on there; College and Grad School...about 40 years ago! Lol
Ugh, I applied once a few years ago, but living in Asia probably was part of the reason they said no. Plus, all of my experience in journalism is lifestyle and food. "Last night's game had a bold yet velvety structure, two forces clashing together in a display of seeming aggression that was merely a cover for deeper, subtler cooperation with brought out the rich essence and varied flavors of the 48-minute-stew. I mean, game."
Yay you are here!
Lol...you guys are worth 50 bucks...maybe a Europenny more! Besides, you need to get some REAL FANS in here besides all of you poor (now, invested) writers. Ol' Dino knows how to "fire" things up! I Sleepy around or he too cheap, or, can't handle the Commish Bball Brilliance? (Kidding, of course...)
He’s around. Most of the gang is here!
Great! Looks like the best writers followed! Hey, Duby, wtf are you doing in here with such a Superstar Staff? :-)
Hahah I don't know man, I just got grandfathered in I guess. Either that, or no one wanted to cover all the previews ;)
A lot has happened since we last got together. As you can see from my new photo, I took up Olympic marksmanship...won a gold medal too at the Winter Olympics...
Everyone remembers the “Just can’t” part of Monta’s unwelcome, but don’t sleep on the “I can’t answer that.” Followed immediately by “Us together? No.”
Ah, Monta. I didn't miss thee.
Seriously. Really was a fan of that trade after I'd had a bit to think about it.
The resistible force meets the movable object. Two teams go in with 1-9 records over the last 10; one has to win...
PING PONG BALL VS GENTLE BREEZE. FIGHT!!
😂
It’s gonna go double overtime, isn’t it?
So if there’s a tie for “2nd place” between several teams, “first place” does actually have better odds. Fascinating.
Alright, Warriors got a 3 game cushion for worst record and a guaranteed Top 5 pick.
A nice morale boosting win is in order.
Lets say to celebrate Looney returning tonight!
Latest and greatest: Looney returns (20-minute restriction). Tweet thread from morning shootaround: https://twitter.com/letsgowarriors/status/1223654955912839168?s=21
Have you seen him working out and shooting during warmups? I just don't understand what his issue was and if it went away 100% or is this a 'look and see' activation?
Fantastic write up Dubby! Is it me or are they better now that you don't have someone looking over your shoulder and have more freedom?
Also what's up with Miny? They trying to catch up with the rest of the pack?
The tank has to be 'on' in MN. Losing 10 in a row takes a real commitment; it's hard not to accidentally win one or run into a comparable team that's just a little worse. Any given NBA evening...
Thanks Qin!
Yeah, no more SEO, no more word count nonsense (like the steph stuff woulda been cut into a separate article at GSOM). Plus, I'm writing for us now. There's some sort of artistic purity in there, but mostly this place has helped me refind my joy.
And Minny is falling apart. I don't know how much is chemistry (like is KAT all mad and playing weird?), but look at the roster. Who's their third best player? Fourth?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2020.html
(I can't wait for comment formatting like embeds, btw)
After KAT, it's like a 5-way-tie between players who are at best subpar-starter-level players.
But let's say we give Wiggins #2 for scoring and R. Cov #3 for 3-and-D wing status (though he's not been excelling on the 3 part...) I'd say it'd Teague, Deng, Layman, though I include that last name in a nod to potential as much as current production. I think he could be a near-nightly double-double-level PF (12-10 level) with occasional runs of hot 3pt shooting from the corner. He needs to work on his FT, though, or he'll be off the floor at the end of playoff games.
There is something to be said about letting artists have the freedom to do what they do best. Glad this is going on here.
Hahahah I couldn't resist.
That link! Love it!