>>>Randle since the return from injury: 18.6 points/6.4 rebounds/5.4 assists on 64% TS. 52.9/35.8/81.3 splits, The Wolves are 11-3 in the 14 games with Randle since his return this month.<<<
KD expected to miss "at least one week" per Shams with his ankle injury. Warriors play the Suns next Tuesday which is right on the borderline for that timeline.
The Warriors have not won in Phoenix since that infamous Christmas game in 2021-2022.
Suns next three games are on the road against the Bucks, Celtics, and the Knicks. Suns will probably go 0-3 against those teams and will fall farther down the standings. If I were Phoenix, I'd just tank the season.
I kind of wonder if James Jones gets fired this offseason.
His track record is mixed at best, and most of the successes were in the 2018-2021 period, which is four years ago (a long time ago, in FO terms).
I had forgotten that the Suns were in the finals against Milwaukee in 2021.
The Mikal Bridges for KD trade is defensible, though if KD demands out, less so. The Beal trade is a trainwreck they are going to be living with for two more years after this one.
And, as Sab writes below, the picks cupboard is bare. If they don't win it this season, they probably won't be contenders for a while.
I've been fiddling around with ChatGPT to understand if the Warriors' team 3 point shooting has followed a more or less normal distribution this season. For example, was yesterday's (outlier) game reasonably to be expected at some point in the season? The answer is that the season's 3 point shooting distribution is a very clean normal distribution. It's not perfect - slightly "right leaning" with a large cluster of games just below average, and then a wider spread of above average games. I would share the chart here but I can't post a graphic. What's the best way for me to share a graphic?
What about pre-post Jimmy stats? For three point shooting, I looked at all the games in which Steph played. Post-Jimmy the average 3 point shooting is slightly down, but with more variation (i.e. less consistency around the mean). But - with only 20 Jimmy games the sample size is pretty small to have strong conclusions.
And: predicting the next game's 3 point shooting is basically impossible. Not taking into account opponent (yes, a big deal, but I haven't started work on that), ChatGPT gives 95% confidence that the next game will be between 20% and 52%.
Another interesting conclusion: While the Warriors 3 point shooting is slightly higher and more consistent for home games, this is not a statistically significant result. In other words, better shooting at home could be random.
Could be SSS (although I doubt it), but that looks more like what I'd expect for a log-normal distribution! That's a pretty typical distribution for processes that involve the accumulation of small changes; I saw it in grade distributions for well leveled tests in my classrooms, for instance (or at least they appeared so without testing different models explicitly)
>>>Asked Giddey about his desire to run an offense, and if this situation has been what he hoped for.
“Definitely. I’ve loved my time in Chicago. … With OKC, it’s more of a compliment to the team. I don’t wanna say my role got diminished, but it changed. …. My role in Chicago, I feel like it’s me.”
MLB is really allowing the Yankees to use a different style of bat than every other team. And all the other teams have to "catch up" to the trend. lol.
"Buster Olney reported during “Sunday Night Baseball” that the Braves ordered torpedo bats after the Yankees’ 20-run, nine-homer barrage on Saturday."
I saw some article that there *are* other players using it... frankly, if it's not violating the rules in the rulebook, make the thing whatever shape you want. If it's innovation, good on the Yankees for trying it out first. The rest of the league can/will catch up.
Now, can we get TJD to become the guy who shoots FTs underhanded?
Every other team will be using them in a New York minute. And offense will go up across the MLB and the games will be more fun for fans with the extra offense. Batting averages have been in the tank recently, the league may have found it's savior.
Ultimately I think this means that individual hitters will have the "barrel" of the bat be at the distance from their hands that is best suited for them, rather than automatically be in a straight line at the end of the bat. Yes, this will probably make hitters more efficient and powerful, but the bats won't all look the same.
The bats are legal and within the same rules that have applied for more than a century. The Yankees just were willing to experiment first, and given how conservative players are about their equipment, especially bats, if you can get a hitter to try a new bat design at the major league level, you deserve huge credit.
Bats have varied a fair amount over the decades, all within the same set of rules. In the Deadball Era, Giants and Reds star third baseman Heinie Groh was famous for his "bottle bat." Groh was a little guy, so he had a bat made for him with a thin handle for his small hands a big barrel to get more wood on the ball. https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/heinie-groh/ That bat was legal then; I am not sure of the dimensions so it might or might not be legal now.
All that MLB Rule 3.02 states about bats is: “The bat shall be a smooth, round stick not more than 2.61 inches in diameter at the thickest part and not more than 42 inches in length. The bat shall be one piece of solid wood.” That's it.
Just saw an article mentioning that Oklahoma has a reason to try to win the rest of their games. If they get to 70 wins it would be only the third time it's been done. (And they play the Lakers twice at home!) For me, I checked out when thy lost their 10th game, making sure they couldn't join the Warriors as the all-time regular season winningest team.
That team was going for the most regular season wins ever. And they will be a cautionary tale for any future team deciding whether to prioritize going for some regular season record over playoff readiness.
I suppose the Thunder *do* have a chance to get the best point differential in NBA history... so they could go for that record. It doesn't feel like an iconic record, but maybe it's reason enough to keep playing hard. They'd have to win their remaining 8 games by a combined 60 points to break that record. I, frankly, don't think they'll have to try all that hard to get that record at this point.
Saying the 2016 Warriors are a cautionary tale about going for a record or playoff readiness is frankly bullshit. LeBron had to cry for a retroactive suspension for that team not to win the title - also JR Smith barrelling into Bogut's knee was a random injury that could've happened even if they had prioritized rest over going for the regular season wins record.
And none of that would have mattered had Steph not busted his knee early in the postseason... and they still could have done it if Iguodala could elevate instead of dealing with his back...
It's not required to prove that they could have won if not for freak injuries like Bogut's. And for everybody claiming that Dray shouldn't have been suspended for his scuffle with LeBron, there's 10 people to remind you that he probably should have been suspended earlier in the playoffs and could have easily lost to the Thunder. There's a bunch of what ifs surrounding that playoff run. But it ended in defeat, and the team that lost was running on fumes. Lesson to the next team with a chance to gun for a regular season record: Go ahead and do it, but prioritize being as ready as you can for the playoffs.
I don't see how you've negated the point, you basically just provided reasons that support them losing which are still independent of them having gone for the record - Dray could've got suspended even if they didn't go for the record, that stacked OKC squad could've maybe beaten them even if they didn't go for the record, Steph could've slipped on a wet spot even if they didn't go for the record. None of it is proof that them going for the record is what made them not win the title.
These are with normal statistical likelihoods… but things like: OKC resting guys in their B2B against the Lakers, tanking, etc, will mess with the models… we just need to win, but we don’t have to win everything.
Story in the Guardian about what it is like to play on a losing team and somehow they didn't find any player to talk to from the 1994-2002 Warriors. They've probably all looked into the light and don't remember any of it.
I didn't even think we started the game with a Game 7 "play like your lives are on the line" mentality but locked in just enough for a professional basketball game. This is doable consistently fellas. It's frustrating watching them come out obviously sleepwalking on most nights while the other team isn't really doing anything special. The light usually doesn't turn on until the 8-9 minute mark for us lol
When they actually made 3 increasingly difficult layups in a row, culminating in Dray's off balance "catch and release" from a tough angle to make it 15-5, I knew it was a wrap.
Current *EXPECTED* EPM numbers (which should take into consideration recent performance):
Steph: +5.7 off/-0.9 def/+4.8 tot (98th percentile, 10th overall)
Jimmy: +3.3 off/+0.6/+3.9 (97th, 15th overall)
Podz: +0.3/+1.8/+2.1 (89th)
GP2: +0.2/+1.6/+1.8 (88th)
Dray: -0.9/+2.6/+1.7 (87th)
Moody: +0.1/+0.7/+0.8 (78th)
Kuminga: -0.2/+0.4/+0.2 (73rd)
Gui: -0.6/+0.7/+0.1 (71st)
Looney: -0.9/+1.0/+0.1 (71st)
TJD: -0.4/+0.2/-0.2 (68th)
Post: +0.3/-0.6/-0.3 (67th)
Buddy: -0.2/-0.9/-1.1 (57th)
Warriors rank as the 6th best team (behind OKC, BOS, CLE, LAC, MIN) - a drop from 4th recently. Crazy that the 3 teams fighting for the 6th seed in the West all rank in the top 6.
The Rockets are 9-1 in their last 10, sitting at 49-26 in second place in the West. But their remaining games are: Lakers, Jazz, Thunder, Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets.
Not completely inconceivable for them to fall into the play in which would be wild. Not saying it's likely, just pointing out how crazy the West is that 50 wins (assuming they beat at least the Jazz) isn't enough to *guarantee* avoiding the play in!
Houston has been on a tear after they lost three in a row to the Kings, Thunder, and Pacers. Afterwards, they won 12 of their last 13 games. They beat: Pels (x2), Magic (x2), Suns (x2), Mavs, Bulls, 76ers, Heat, Hawks, and Jazz. Their only loss was to the Nuggets.
Their schedule has been full of middle of the road teams lately. The last 6 tough games starts tonight. I could definitely see them falling into the 4-5 side of the bracket
I gotta say, that’s one of the late season developments that has surprised me. They looked (to me) like a team primed for a late-season slide. Still not sure how they’re doing it, as no one on the team really scares me. Guess it’s just a great balance of skills, size, and young legs, with some great coaching by Udoka.
Agreed, I thought they were a rising team but I didn't expect them to go this far this season. They do have a lot of young talent. Their success this season points to the combination being more than the sum of its parts, and that's a sign of good chemistry, and as you say, great coaching.
New thread of E1P posted.
Clippers on a back-to-back in Orlando...
Grizzlies hosting Boston in the front end of a btb with us...
Lakers facing Rockets...
It's popcorn time!!
Podz was blistering hot from downtown yesterday. Like his sunburn
>>>Randle since the return from injury: 18.6 points/6.4 rebounds/5.4 assists on 64% TS. 52.9/35.8/81.3 splits, The Wolves are 11-3 in the 14 games with Randle since his return this month.<<<
https://old.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1joat7d/julius_randle_since_the_return_from_injury/
KD expected to miss "at least one week" per Shams with his ankle injury. Warriors play the Suns next Tuesday which is right on the borderline for that timeline.
The Warriors have not won in Phoenix since that infamous Christmas game in 2021-2022.
Suns next three games are on the road against the Bucks, Celtics, and the Knicks. Suns will probably go 0-3 against those teams and will fall farther down the standings. If I were Phoenix, I'd just tank the season.
The problem is they are tanking against Dallas and Portland...
How would we tell the difference?
I kind of wonder if James Jones gets fired this offseason.
His track record is mixed at best, and most of the successes were in the 2018-2021 period, which is four years ago (a long time ago, in FO terms).
I had forgotten that the Suns were in the finals against Milwaukee in 2021.
The Mikal Bridges for KD trade is defensible, though if KD demands out, less so. The Beal trade is a trainwreck they are going to be living with for two more years after this one.
And, as Sab writes below, the picks cupboard is bare. If they don't win it this season, they probably won't be contenders for a while.
Their draft situation is so frightening it should have an R rating.
https://fanspo.com/nba/teams/suns/24/draft-picks
I found this to be a simpler and clearer explanation: https://arizonasports.com/nba/phoenix-suns/future-picks/3572960/
Well, that 2030 FRP might be in the teens
I've been fiddling around with ChatGPT to understand if the Warriors' team 3 point shooting has followed a more or less normal distribution this season. For example, was yesterday's (outlier) game reasonably to be expected at some point in the season? The answer is that the season's 3 point shooting distribution is a very clean normal distribution. It's not perfect - slightly "right leaning" with a large cluster of games just below average, and then a wider spread of above average games. I would share the chart here but I can't post a graphic. What's the best way for me to share a graphic?
What about pre-post Jimmy stats? For three point shooting, I looked at all the games in which Steph played. Post-Jimmy the average 3 point shooting is slightly down, but with more variation (i.e. less consistency around the mean). But - with only 20 Jimmy games the sample size is pretty small to have strong conclusions.
And: predicting the next game's 3 point shooting is basically impossible. Not taking into account opponent (yes, a big deal, but I haven't started work on that), ChatGPT gives 95% confidence that the next game will be between 20% and 52%.
Another interesting conclusion: While the Warriors 3 point shooting is slightly higher and more consistent for home games, this is not a statistically significant result. In other words, better shooting at home could be random.
You could take a snapshot of it and upload it with a free image uploader site like this one https://imgbb.com/
Ok let's see if this works: https://ibb.co/GvKCb83f
Could be SSS (although I doubt it), but that looks more like what I'd expect for a log-normal distribution! That's a pretty typical distribution for processes that involve the accumulation of small changes; I saw it in grade distributions for well leveled tests in my classrooms, for instance (or at least they appeared so without testing different models explicitly)
Agreed. I ran a bunch of tests on that distribution and ChatGPT indicates that it is significantly significant.
Is that finding significant for us?
Works for me. Now do what it looks like after getting Jimmy.
added above. take a look.
Works for me, thanks!
>>>Asked Giddey about his desire to run an offense, and if this situation has been what he hoped for.
“Definitely. I’ve loved my time in Chicago. … With OKC, it’s more of a compliment to the team. I don’t wanna say my role got diminished, but it changed. …. My role in Chicago, I feel like it’s me.”
<<<
https://bsky.app/profile/jxlorenzi.bsky.social/post/3lloup7pyic22
MLB is really allowing the Yankees to use a different style of bat than every other team. And all the other teams have to "catch up" to the trend. lol.
"Buster Olney reported during “Sunday Night Baseball” that the Braves ordered torpedo bats after the Yankees’ 20-run, nine-homer barrage on Saturday."
Can we get a custom basketball for every shooter on the team? Actually, I'd be happy just standardizing the ball around Steph's shot.
I saw some article that there *are* other players using it... frankly, if it's not violating the rules in the rulebook, make the thing whatever shape you want. If it's innovation, good on the Yankees for trying it out first. The rest of the league can/will catch up.
Now, can we get TJD to become the guy who shoots FTs underhanded?
Every other team will be using them in a New York minute. And offense will go up across the MLB and the games will be more fun for fans with the extra offense. Batting averages have been in the tank recently, the league may have found it's savior.
Ultimately I think this means that individual hitters will have the "barrel" of the bat be at the distance from their hands that is best suited for them, rather than automatically be in a straight line at the end of the bat. Yes, this will probably make hitters more efficient and powerful, but the bats won't all look the same.
Sounds like something that could have been discussed by mlb & team owners in the off season though.
Yeah that's trash that the Yankees got a headstart.
The bats are legal and within the same rules that have applied for more than a century. The Yankees just were willing to experiment first, and given how conservative players are about their equipment, especially bats, if you can get a hitter to try a new bat design at the major league level, you deserve huge credit.
Bats have varied a fair amount over the decades, all within the same set of rules. In the Deadball Era, Giants and Reds star third baseman Heinie Groh was famous for his "bottle bat." Groh was a little guy, so he had a bat made for him with a thin handle for his small hands a big barrel to get more wood on the ball. https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/heinie-groh/ That bat was legal then; I am not sure of the dimensions so it might or might not be legal now.
All that MLB Rule 3.02 states about bats is: “The bat shall be a smooth, round stick not more than 2.61 inches in diameter at the thickest part and not more than 42 inches in length. The bat shall be one piece of solid wood.” That's it.
Just saw an article mentioning that Oklahoma has a reason to try to win the rest of their games. If they get to 70 wins it would be only the third time it's been done. (And they play the Lakers twice at home!) For me, I checked out when thy lost their 10th game, making sure they couldn't join the Warriors as the all-time regular season winningest team.
Ummm... no. They'll start resting guys and taking it relatively easy at some point.
I mean the 2016 Dubs didn't do that.
That team was going for the most regular season wins ever. And they will be a cautionary tale for any future team deciding whether to prioritize going for some regular season record over playoff readiness.
I suppose the Thunder *do* have a chance to get the best point differential in NBA history... so they could go for that record. It doesn't feel like an iconic record, but maybe it's reason enough to keep playing hard. They'd have to win their remaining 8 games by a combined 60 points to break that record. I, frankly, don't think they'll have to try all that hard to get that record at this point.
Saying the 2016 Warriors are a cautionary tale about going for a record or playoff readiness is frankly bullshit. LeBron had to cry for a retroactive suspension for that team not to win the title - also JR Smith barrelling into Bogut's knee was a random injury that could've happened even if they had prioritized rest over going for the regular season wins record.
And none of that would have mattered had Steph not busted his knee early in the postseason... and they still could have done it if Iguodala could elevate instead of dealing with his back...
It's not required to prove that they could have won if not for freak injuries like Bogut's. And for everybody claiming that Dray shouldn't have been suspended for his scuffle with LeBron, there's 10 people to remind you that he probably should have been suspended earlier in the playoffs and could have easily lost to the Thunder. There's a bunch of what ifs surrounding that playoff run. But it ended in defeat, and the team that lost was running on fumes. Lesson to the next team with a chance to gun for a regular season record: Go ahead and do it, but prioritize being as ready as you can for the playoffs.
I don't see how you've negated the point, you basically just provided reasons that support them losing which are still independent of them having gone for the record - Dray could've got suspended even if they didn't go for the record, that stacked OKC squad could've maybe beaten them even if they didn't go for the record, Steph could've slipped on a wet spot even if they didn't go for the record. None of it is proof that them going for the record is what made them not win the title.
Games to track tonight:
Magic vs. Clippers
Grizzlies vs. Celtics
Lakers vs. Rockets
And maybe Pacers vs. Kings and Mavs vs. Nets if you are wondering which teams will take the #9 and 10 spots in the West.
And here's a handy tool for tracking:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/warriorswhatif.html
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/warriorsmig.html
OMG. Yay. I was looking at updating my snapshot from 4 games ago. Now I don't have to.
If we win out, we will be the 2, 3, or 4 seed.
Win 7 out of 8, and we're guaranteed 3, 4, or 5.
We control our own destiny to some degree still.
Interesting... going 5-3 has us with 80+ % chance of 6th or higher seed.
That's ideal since we have a good chance of winning every game we have left except maybe Lakers, and Nuggets.
These are with normal statistical likelihoods… but things like: OKC resting guys in their B2B against the Lakers, tanking, etc, will mess with the models… we just need to win, but we don’t have to win everything.
Yea that's the stat that really caught my eye.
wow, what a very cool site. thanks for sharing.
Here's hoping for the Clips and Grizz to lose, and for the Lakers and Rockets to beat each other senseless in triple OT.
Story in the Guardian about what it is like to play on a losing team and somehow they didn't find any player to talk to from the 1994-2002 Warriors. They've probably all looked into the light and don't remember any of it.
I didn't even think we started the game with a Game 7 "play like your lives are on the line" mentality but locked in just enough for a professional basketball game. This is doable consistently fellas. It's frustrating watching them come out obviously sleepwalking on most nights while the other team isn't really doing anything special. The light usually doesn't turn on until the 8-9 minute mark for us lol
When they actually made 3 increasingly difficult layups in a row, culminating in Dray's off balance "catch and release" from a tough angle to make it 15-5, I knew it was a wrap.
MAN! Did we need that!
Sure, the opposition was mailing it in, but this was the first game in a long time where we actually looked like a contender.
Sure, we've piled up some wins, but too many were too close against depleted squads.
The three-point shooting has returned just in time for the crucial 4 game stretch that will likely determine our seed.
AND we got to rest Butler, whose minutes had crept up into the high 30's for the last few weeks.
> The three-point shooting has returned just in time for the crucial 4 game stretch that will likely determine our seed.
Umm... it was one game. Currently, it's an outlier vs. recent performance.
Nope! One in a row!
Current *EXPECTED* EPM numbers (which should take into consideration recent performance):
Steph: +5.7 off/-0.9 def/+4.8 tot (98th percentile, 10th overall)
Jimmy: +3.3 off/+0.6/+3.9 (97th, 15th overall)
Podz: +0.3/+1.8/+2.1 (89th)
GP2: +0.2/+1.6/+1.8 (88th)
Dray: -0.9/+2.6/+1.7 (87th)
Moody: +0.1/+0.7/+0.8 (78th)
Kuminga: -0.2/+0.4/+0.2 (73rd)
Gui: -0.6/+0.7/+0.1 (71st)
Looney: -0.9/+1.0/+0.1 (71st)
TJD: -0.4/+0.2/-0.2 (68th)
Post: +0.3/-0.6/-0.3 (67th)
Buddy: -0.2/-0.9/-1.1 (57th)
Warriors rank as the 6th best team (behind OKC, BOS, CLE, LAC, MIN) - a drop from 4th recently. Crazy that the 3 teams fighting for the 6th seed in the West all rank in the top 6.
Current actual EPM numbers (from dunks and threes):
(I wish there were splits, because I suspect Jimmy, Podz and Moody have been quite good the past two months)
Steph: +5.2 off, -0.6 def, +4.5 total (99th percentile, 6th overall)
Jimmy: +2.8/+0.2/+3.0 (93rd, 33rd overall)
GP2: -0.1/+1.6/+1.5 (86th) - get healthy!
Draymond: -0.9/+2.1/+1.2 (82nd)
Looney: -1.1/+2.0/+0.9 (79th)
Podz: -0.5/+1.3/+0.8 (77th)
Moody: 0.0/+0.5/+0.5 (72nd)
Gui: -0.7/+1.0/+0.3 (70th)
Post: +0.8/-1.0/-0.2 (63rd)
Kuminga: -1.0/+0.5/-0.5 (59th)
TJD: -0.6/+0.1/-0.5 (59th)
Buddy: -0.3/-0.7/-1.0 (50th)
Others of note:
Wiggs: +0.2/+0.5/+0.7 (74th)
Schroder: +0.4/+0.1/+0.5 (72nd) - would love to see his GSW only #s
SloMo: -2.2/+0.6/-1.6 (43rd)
Lindy: -1.7/-0.7/-2.4 (29th)
The Rockets are 9-1 in their last 10, sitting at 49-26 in second place in the West. But their remaining games are: Lakers, Jazz, Thunder, Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets.
Not completely inconceivable for them to fall into the play in which would be wild. Not saying it's likely, just pointing out how crazy the West is that 50 wins (assuming they beat at least the Jazz) isn't enough to *guarantee* avoiding the play in!
Houston has been on a tear after they lost three in a row to the Kings, Thunder, and Pacers. Afterwards, they won 12 of their last 13 games. They beat: Pels (x2), Magic (x2), Suns (x2), Mavs, Bulls, 76ers, Heat, Hawks, and Jazz. Their only loss was to the Nuggets.
Their schedule has been full of middle of the road teams lately. The last 6 tough games starts tonight. I could definitely see them falling into the 4-5 side of the bracket
I gotta say, that’s one of the late season developments that has surprised me. They looked (to me) like a team primed for a late-season slide. Still not sure how they’re doing it, as no one on the team really scares me. Guess it’s just a great balance of skills, size, and young legs, with some great coaching by Udoka.
Agreed, I thought they were a rising team but I didn't expect them to go this far this season. They do have a lot of young talent. Their success this season points to the combination being more than the sum of its parts, and that's a sign of good chemistry, and as you say, great coaching.