“The rate at which we process different visual signals is called temporal resolution, and it affects how quickly we’re able to respond to changes in our environment. As reported by The Guardian, scientists at the Trinity College Dublin measured this trait by testing at which point 80 adults stopped perceiving a light as flickering and instead started seeing it as constant.
Added neurobiologist Kevin Mitchell…”Because we only have access to our own subjective experience, we might naively expect that everyone else perceives the world in the same way we do. This study characterizes one such difference. Some people really do seem to see the world faster than others.”
Yeah ... although I suspect we won't find out. I imagine Luka will drink the blood of a virgin, arise miraculously from his sarcophagus and drop 35 on us.
Your eyes were not deceiving you, Warriors fans. Steve Kerr is truly the worst coach in the league when it comes to challenges, the only one under a 40% success rate while the rest of the league has about a 60% average. Tied for the most unsuccessful challenges in the league with Sacramento (both Brown and Jarron Collins are bottom 5 in success rate as well, shout out to the Kerr coaching tree lol).
They need to look to seriously address this in the offseason tbh, it's a clear disadvantage. Jacob Rubin might be a nice guy but if he is heading their "challenge team" he needs to be re-assigned to a different role.
It seems like an obvious thing to be able to easily improve but I think I’ve observed Kerr ‘throwing’ a few challenges for soft coaching reasons - sort of like getting a tech. I’m sure he thinks it more important at times to show support to a vet than to get it right. I’d be willing to bet that tightens in the post season.
There's gotta be a way to game this thing... no challenges on block/charge calls... emphasize challenges on calls with no gray area (e.g. who knocked the ball out of bounds)...
You'd think with all of the coaches and their various roles, you could get one in charge of reviews that could incorporate the impacts of various successful challenges as well as stats showing what types of calls are more likely to be overturned.
Kerr routinely won't challenge obvious calls in the first half, while he uselessly wastes it at a random opportunity in the 2nd half. Legitimately terrible strategy
I say challenge any and all "no doubter"s... they're worth at least a point each. That's good enough to change the dynamics of any later "high leverage" situation.
Not a bad idea, but a few caveats apply. For example, if you challenge an out-of-bounds call that could result in your possession but there are only 1.5 seconds left on the shot clock (regardless if you are on offense or on defense), it's probably best not to waste the challenge. And challenging shooting fouls can backfire too if there is no "imminent possession" for your club so the outcome could simply be a jump ball (unless it's a case of a charge vs. defensive foul). The way the Dubs have gone this year, even if they won such a challenge, their opponent might just win the jump ball and hit a three-pointer.
In the playoffs, my first priority would be to challenge any clearly incorrect call against Draymond.
During the regular season, not a huge deal to do this, since he is playing fewer minutes this year, but in the playoffs, you want him available for 36 minutes.
Draymond entering the 4th quarter with 3 fouls instead of 4, say, is probably worth more than three points.
The "should" part is where the problem is... the call maybe "should" have gone our way, but it didn't, and unless there's clear and strong evidence to overturn the call, it's going to stay as called on the floor, so don't challenge that stuff.
Steph has Draymond, producing a two-man game that equals more than the sum of their individual parts (we all know this).
But Klay finally found a similar dynamic with TJD: a two-man game that unlocks Point Klay, provides an outlet so he doesn’t need to create for himself as much, while also providing veteran support for the promising rookie. TJD screens for Klay, finds him on the perimeter, and generally reduces the wear and tear on Klay.
Jonathan Kuminga, Gary Payton II and Andrew Wiggins are all questionable for the Warriors tonight in Dallas. The same knee issue for Kuminga, left ankle soreness for both Wiggins and Payton.
---------------
Late ankle tweak for Wiggs last night kept him out of the 4th quarter
Ugh. Possibly the WORST TEAM to have our three best POA defenders missing against (or three of four, if we want to put Moods in the group).
If at least two of those three can all tough it out for 15-20+ minutes, I give us a puncher's chance. They're on a segababa as well, Luka's not the word's best-conditioned athlete, and Lively is still out...
Moses Moody says hi. He's not so quietly become a real good POA defender lately. Using his length really well these days... he's been going to GP2 school.
Maybe it's time for Steph and Dray to come down with a sudden illness... we're not beating Dallas without those three guys (assuming none of them play).
The league could see right through that and fine the Dubs for resting both of them. But if Luka sits, we have a decent chance even without JK, GP2, and Wiggs. We'll need guys to step up, of course. Moody could be a difference maker.
Trayce has filled that role,” Curry said. “It gives Draymond a little bit more freedom to be a pest out there, being help side, being able to attack the ball knowing that there’s a presence behind him. Trayce has done an unbelievable job of learning how to be aggressive, pick and choose his spots, how to protect the rim and just play sound defense. Then we’re trying to fly around that, and it even helps to have Wiggs applying so much ball pressure to their primary scorer. The pieces fit.”
And that's the key - "pieces fit". It's not necessarily about if TJD is better than having JK with Dray sliding to 5. All that is assuming we continue getting the good Wiggs.
Hopefully JK embraces coming off the bench and hopefully he gets to play 20+ minutes.
The main reason why it could be beneficial to both sides if Kuminga is traded (assuming we can get some good pieces back). Kuminga would be able to start in another team. Though Kuminga would still work great off the bench here, but he def doesn’t want that and I don’t blame him.
Even if Klay drops off next year, I’d rather go with Steph-Moody-Wiggs-Dray-TJD than put Kuminga back in
Dray will be 35 next season. You don’t trade your best young players for “some good pieces” because of a perceived future minutes conflict with a guy who might have a year left in his prime.
Dray has played only 17 minutes per Warriors game this season, which is likely a big reason why he’s been so effective on those minutes. And even with that mild minutes load, he’s been bothered by back issues which have dogged him periodically over the years. Chronic back issues tend not improve as you enter your mid-late 30s.
Seems pretty obvious that Dray should be moving more to an Iguodala-like bench role in the final chapter of his career. Enter Kuminga.
I mean … I’m familiar with recency bias, but this trade Kuminga nonsense is next level.
Also, the way to extend to Dray BB life is not to play him at 5.
Everytime I see him defend a big 4 inches taller/50 lbs heavier than him with his hand on their back as they are trying to back him down, I cringe at how much strain it puts on his back.
Not necessarily. People said the same thing about Klay until he was benched. Obviously, Dray's synergy with Steph is legendary, but next season we want JK, TJD, BP, and MM to start developing that synergy as well. Leaning too much on 34-35 y.o. gray-bearded Dray risks depriving them of the opportunity to develop as playmakers and decision-makers — the same opportunity young Dray got when Kerr benched David Lee.
But I get it: Dray's been totally awesome the last 4-5 games, while JK's been hurt, and the Warriors have been kicking ass. Forget about the minor "JK is thirteen years younger" detail — recency bias *always* wins on sports blogs. I'm as guilty of it as the next guy/gal.
Dray is a Steph multiplier. All stats say so. If I remember correctly, somebody mentioned during one of the pregames that there is statistically significant difference in Steph's stats with Dray on and Dray off.
As Steph gets slower, he is going to need someone who can create for him and set killer screens. May be Podz can be that person or JK will step up to but not in next two years.
I don't want to trade Kuminga. But I also don't want him to have to come off the bench and possibly cause issues. (Maybe he'll gladly come off the bench if he's getting 30mpg who knows). You're bringing up Dray coming off the bench next year like it'll happen for sure. Most likely he's still going to start. And if we continue looking good with TJD at center, that's not going to stop either.
I realize starting is a prestige thing in the NBA but if JK is getting that 30 mpg and is often in the closing lineup with the game on the line, that might make the difference.
But I'm not 100% convinced that Wiggs will remain the starter if he isn't consistent. If JK can improve his shooting over the summer, get his 3-pointers up to around 37% (where he was last season), and make some defensive strides, he could take that starting job. His FT% is already comparable to Wiggs this year (74%) and improving so a 3-pt improvement seems within reach.
I'm still looking at this year as the outlier for Wiggins. He wasn't doing this any of his other seasons with us so why should we expect this next year, esp when he's still in his prime
Outside of the whole thing in 2022 I don't really care for Boston as a franchise enough to hate them. Bill Russell carried them with all of those titles back then because they've been very 21st century Niner Like (good regular season teams but always fall short in the playoffs) after Bird retired outside of that single greatest championship team ever in 08 lol
Russell didn't carry those Celtic teams, he just led them. They were absolutely loaded with Cousy, Heinsohn, Sharman, KC Jones, Sam Jones, Satch Sanders, Havlicek (a bit later). Every one in the HOF.
I rewatched game 5 and 6 of the 2019 Finals and our player development/roster construction totally cost us the title, even with KD and Klay being hurt. We were playing Quinn Cook and Jonas Jerebko in important minutes, with Jacob Evans on the bench. I feel like Myers was asleep at the wheel for awhile.
Cutting Damion Lee from the playoff roster and leaving Klay with no backup SG was one of my least favorite moves of that era, from the time they did it.
No question relying on Q and Jerebko (and Evans taking up a roster spot) cost us. But I think with a healthy Klay and KD we would have won in 2019, and I don't think it would even be that close. We were down two HOFers in their prime.
Warriors currently have 174 million on the payroll for next season, but that includes CP3's 30 million (fully non-guaranteed) and Looney's 8 million (partially guaranteed for 3 million). So if they get rid of both players they would be at 139 million before making any other moves, which is technically under the salary cap.
GP2's next season is a player option for 9 million, I gotta assume he takes it unless he and the Warriors could come to some sort of agreement where he opts out and re-signs for more years but less money per year to cut their payroll a bit more. But perhaps they would salary dump him if they needed the space given that he's an expiring contract without a massive salary.
Lacob has said he wants to be out of the tax entirely next season so the big question that will dictate what the Warriors can do will be Klay's contract. I assume the Warriors will backload whatever deal they give him as getting out of the tax this year is the main priority to set them up for the next few, but if he took some sort of discount then they would likely have access to the entire 13 million MLE and possibly more.
GP2 has a player option for next season at $9.1M. Presumably he'll opt in. I doubt he could get more in free agency, and the Dubs know how to use him to mutual advantage.
They need to be at $166 to use $13M FMLE. From CBAFaq:
This exception is available only when a team is below the "Apron" (see question number 20). This determination is made after the exception is used, so a team below the Apron cannot use this exception if doing so takes it above the Apron
Right, that's what I'm saying. Depending on Klay's deal, they might have access to the entire 13 million MLE while remaining under the luxury tax line.
There's a question of if they have access to some of the MLE if they are under the luxury tax line by less than 13 million though. Also I'm not sure where you are getting 166 from, the tax line is projected at 172.
One thing I forgot. Apron line doesn't matter if Lacob's goal is to.stay below the tax line. Hopefully we get to atleast second round of playoffs and due to the extra revenue, Lacob gives up the goal of staying below tax.
I'm kinda lost. I thought losing an MLE was a second apron restriction, not a luxury tax restriction.
The way I thought it worked:
If you are below the taxpayer line (after exercising the option, apparently), you have the FMLE, if you are above the taxpayer line but below the second apron, you have the TPMLE, and if you are above the 2nd apron, you have no MLE.
So, I think the relevant line would be: $192 mil - TPMLE, to have at least the TPMLE.
Warriors front office has got a lot to think about in the upcoming offseason. Keep Klay or let him walk? Who do we trade and who do we sign or re-sign?
I think the decision on Thompson is pretty much financial. If he's reasonable, he stays. If he wants big bucks, he could be out -- not because the Ws don't want him but because they can't afford to allocate that much to a guy who just can't bring it consistently. Gotta spend money on JK and Moody.
I think they waive Looney but bring him back on the minimum, so let's count him for 5.5 instead of 8. Wiggs could definitely be moved. They need to account for Moody and Kuminga extensions in a year, so they can't go too crazy.
I'm still expecting Loon to dominate Sabonis in the play-in to get the Dubs into the playoffs - if he does that, he's probably gonna stay with the team on his regular contract.
To be honest I was under the impression that if you waived someone you couldn't re-sign them but I realized with your comment that that is probably wrong. So I agree, Looney will probably be waived and back for the minimum.
GP2 was on a regular contract, they signed him at the end of 2020-2021 to the 15 man roster.
Also the other teams could but is any team looking to claim Looney for 8 million when no one has ever seemed interested in signing him for that amount in free agency and now he's coming off a down season?
"If the Suns waive him and he clears waivers, he could re-sign with the team at a lower salary than $30.8 million, allowing the Suns to retain a nucleus of Paul, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant."
I assume this would apply to Looney (if no one picks him up at the 8 million figure)
Do you think they'd dump GP2? GP2, Kuminga/Moody, + Wiggs would be nice salary ballast for any big salary. Also would be their only good chance to not be subject to luxury tax rules, if the goal is to get under for 1 season.
Remove emotion and I'm not sure Klay is worth much more than vet min. His on-off is still atrocious and we may not be able to properly rein him in like a new team might be able to. Plus, Moody would slip into his spot, GPII would no longer cause a guard minutes crunch, Podz would have plenty of time. But add emotion back in? I'm not sure I want to watch Klay in a Magic uniform.
Remove the emotion of "what have you done for me this season" and there is atleast one team in the league which will pay him $30M. Last 15 games, he is averaging 20 pts a game on 45% FG, 40% 3 pt, 60% TS.
But add it to a larger context and you have a player who hasn't had a league average TS% since coming back from two major injuries, doesn't rebound or assist nearly well enough to be a forward, and who can no longer guard good 1's or 2's very well.
He still unquestionably has NBA skills - his 3P is a legitimate top 5 NBA weapon still. But size still matters and he's an undersized forward who can't really do much besides shoot open 3Ps and defend slower 3's and 4's. He kind of forces you to play small given his limitations. And he's only going to get worse from here.
Again, I love Klay. But if you subscribe to a year too early rather than a year too late? There's no question you let him go this offseason if he's any more than vet min.
Yeah TBH Klay is definitely not a max player anymore but he's not a vet minimum type of guy either. He's still a very legit threat from deep that could help a contender in a smaller role as a 3rd scoring option. I'd say 20-25m for Klay is still fair value for both parties
I think $15m per should be the very top of our range. Klay is really just Kyle Korver at this point and if someone else wants to pay more for that over the next 2-3 seasons, wish him well. It allows MDJ more flexibility and Moody is ready to step in at SG now. Also, letting Klay go as the first step of moving on from the Dynasty allows the heartbreak to come in stages.
Kyle Korver never saw the day he was as good as Klay is even now. Korver was always a one-trick pony, a great 3-point shooter, no more, no less. Klay has lost a few steps but he has improved in setting up teammates, as witness his work with TJD. He is slower now but he's still a better defender than Korver ever was. He's even a better rebounder than Korver although that's a low bar. Klay gets to the rim more than Korver did too.
Admittedly the comparison is probably somewhat premature, and I too am encouraged by the way he now is dishing the ball more effectively (especially the chemistry with TJD). But my reply was in the context of a discussion about an upcoming contract in the $15-25m range. Klay will likely want a 3-year deal, and I see his defense and overall effectiveness inevitably becoming more "Korver-like" over the life of that contract.
I'm a salary cap moron and could be entirely wrong but does letting Klay walk for nothing really net them that much? It seems like it would guarantee that they could use the full MLE, but depending on what Klay takes that might be available to them regardless. It could allow them to keep CP3 if they wanted though, I suppose?
Per this article, several executives believe Hartenstein could command around the full non-taxpayer MLE this summer, and Hartenstein says that while "business is business", if the money is equal with the offers he gets he'll stay on the Knicks.
I'm curious though because the Knicks have Mitchell Robinson so if the Warriors were able to offer him the full MLE, a starting spot, and a system that suits his passing strengths, would that be enough?
But maybe due to the scarcity of quality free agents in the class he ends up getting more than that, which would be a bummer.
I still am mad the Dubs didn't sign him a year or two ago when he would have been cheaper. He's always had elite per minute stats and he would have fit so perfectly. But he's yet another Wiseman casualty.
It's the small things - not re-signing GPII, not getting Hartenstein or another center in 2020-2021 (and even last year to a lesser extent), putting more wear and tear on Draymond and Looney. All from the consequences of one bad decision.
Per Myers on the broadcast when we played the Knicks, they did try to sign Hartenstein but didn’t land him. Up to you whether to believe him or not though.
I believe him because I think we did know that from some report at the time. But I think if you are Hartenstein in that situation and you see the Clippers with Zubac and nobody to back him up (Hartenstein ended up beating out Harry Giles for the backup spot, not exactly strong competition) and then you see the Warriors with Looney and Wiseman who the Warriors were committed to in a way that was pretty obvious to see, the Clippers just look like a better career move.
Game thread: https://dubnationhq.com/p/game-76-gsw-dallas-530pm-almost-instant/comments
Mavs will want to avenge their last loss to us, so they will play with intensity. Hope we can match it.
Any word on warriors out/playing?
Kuminga and Wiggins out, GP2?
BBIQ?
“The rate at which we process different visual signals is called temporal resolution, and it affects how quickly we’re able to respond to changes in our environment. As reported by The Guardian, scientists at the Trinity College Dublin measured this trait by testing at which point 80 adults stopped perceiving a light as flickering and instead started seeing it as constant.
Added neurobiologist Kevin Mitchell…”Because we only have access to our own subjective experience, we might naively expect that everyone else perceives the world in the same way we do. This study characterizes one such difference. Some people really do seem to see the world faster than others.”
Nice News April 5, 2024
https://twitter.com/Underdog__NBA/status/1776381217593577831
Luka Doncic (knee) ruled out Friday.
-------------------
Officially official
Luka out? Oh we getting 20 pieced tonight
Might be tough, if we have no wings to guard Kyrie. I could see him putting up 25-30 shots if Luka is out.
OTOH, if Wiggs or JK or GPII plays (along with Moody), I'd feel pretty good about it.
They can probably just run a Box And One on Kyrie if Doncic doesn't play
It could also be that Kyrie gets his but we can slow down everyone else enough to keep it under control.
Yeah ... although I suspect we won't find out. I imagine Luka will drink the blood of a virgin, arise miraculously from his sarcophagus and drop 35 on us.
Luka 'Black' Magic
Luka must not have known that Wiggs hurt his ankle - probably doesn't want any part of Wiggs
Dante Exum 12 of 14 on threes, and 32 points for Dwight Powell
I'd risk it if it means Doncic sits this one out.
Yep it’ll be Exum or Hardaway Jr
PJ Washington is a prime candidate tbh
Keep this energy.... yes....
Luka doubtful on the latest injury report... and line moved 3 points. So... this is a must win game if Luka sits.
Damn it, now I'm going from "I'm just going to enjoy this game for what it is" to "we better damn win if they don't have Luka"
Luka played 37 mins, Kyrie played 35 mins, and Washington played 36 mins last night.
Has Jason Kidd been hanging around with Thibs lately? 🤔
> Initial results on the challenge stats (updated through 3/31/24):
https://twitter.com/DesertSquirrel2/status/1775887154813538371
Your eyes were not deceiving you, Warriors fans. Steve Kerr is truly the worst coach in the league when it comes to challenges, the only one under a 40% success rate while the rest of the league has about a 60% average. Tied for the most unsuccessful challenges in the league with Sacramento (both Brown and Jarron Collins are bottom 5 in success rate as well, shout out to the Kerr coaching tree lol).
They need to look to seriously address this in the offseason tbh, it's a clear disadvantage. Jacob Rubin might be a nice guy but if he is heading their "challenge team" he needs to be re-assigned to a different role.
The media always ask players what they are working on in the off-season.
They should ask Kerr what he's been working on in regards to challenges in the off-season.
Interesting!
It seems like an obvious thing to be able to easily improve but I think I’ve observed Kerr ‘throwing’ a few challenges for soft coaching reasons - sort of like getting a tech. I’m sure he thinks it more important at times to show support to a vet than to get it right. I’d be willing to bet that tightens in the post season.
Have you seen how many challenges are simply because Kerr is scared of Draymond 😬
We always say "Kerr" loses but it his him depending on who he has to depend on - Rubin. Yeah Rubin might get re-assigned.
All fans think their team loses an inordinate number of challenges and gets an inordinate number of fouls called in the other team's favor.
Only Warriors fans are correct.
#lightyears
There's gotta be a way to game this thing... no challenges on block/charge calls... emphasize challenges on calls with no gray area (e.g. who knocked the ball out of bounds)...
You'd think with all of the coaches and their various roles, you could get one in charge of reviews that could incorporate the impacts of various successful challenges as well as stats showing what types of calls are more likely to be overturned.
First challenge should be a “no doubter“ to make sure they get a second, then keep the second for a high-leverage situation.
Kerr routinely won't challenge obvious calls in the first half, while he uselessly wastes it at a random opportunity in the 2nd half. Legitimately terrible strategy
Seems almost deliberately so sometimes…
I’ll never forget his challenge that resulted in Klay’s close out getting upgraded to a flagrant foul…
LOL
I say challenge any and all "no doubter"s... they're worth at least a point each. That's good enough to change the dynamics of any later "high leverage" situation.
Not a bad idea, but a few caveats apply. For example, if you challenge an out-of-bounds call that could result in your possession but there are only 1.5 seconds left on the shot clock (regardless if you are on offense or on defense), it's probably best not to waste the challenge. And challenging shooting fouls can backfire too if there is no "imminent possession" for your club so the outcome could simply be a jump ball (unless it's a case of a charge vs. defensive foul). The way the Dubs have gone this year, even if they won such a challenge, their opponent might just win the jump ball and hit a three-pointer.
In the playoffs, my first priority would be to challenge any clearly incorrect call against Draymond.
During the regular season, not a huge deal to do this, since he is playing fewer minutes this year, but in the playoffs, you want him available for 36 minutes.
Draymond entering the 4th quarter with 3 fouls instead of 4, say, is probably worth more than three points.
Tbf, he kinda gets boned on some calls that look like they should go our way too
The "should" part is where the problem is... the call maybe "should" have gone our way, but it didn't, and unless there's clear and strong evidence to overturn the call, it's going to stay as called on the floor, so don't challenge that stuff.
I think Dan is specifically referencing instances where the replay did show what we’d consider clear and strong evidence and we didn’t win it anyway.
Yep, the Steph rules by the refs.
The last call they challenged made no sense. Then they’ll turn around and not use it at a pivotal moment when they do have it.
Steph has Draymond, producing a two-man game that equals more than the sum of their individual parts (we all know this).
But Klay finally found a similar dynamic with TJD: a two-man game that unlocks Point Klay, provides an outlet so he doesn’t need to create for himself as much, while also providing veteran support for the promising rookie. TJD screens for Klay, finds him on the perimeter, and generally reduces the wear and tear on Klay.
As the old heads say: game recognizes game.
https://twitter.com/anthonyVslater/status/1776317156814107087
Jonathan Kuminga, Gary Payton II and Andrew Wiggins are all questionable for the Warriors tonight in Dallas. The same knee issue for Kuminga, left ankle soreness for both Wiggins and Payton.
---------------
Late ankle tweak for Wiggs last night kept him out of the 4th quarter
Ugh. Possibly the WORST TEAM to have our three best POA defenders missing against (or three of four, if we want to put Moods in the group).
If at least two of those three can all tough it out for 15-20+ minutes, I give us a puncher's chance. They're on a segababa as well, Luka's not the word's best-conditioned athlete, and Lively is still out...
Luka questionable also. Take a break Luka
Moses Moody says hi. He's not so quietly become a real good POA defender lately. Using his length really well these days... he's been going to GP2 school.
Wiggins and GP2 are our best Luka defenders other than Draymond, who we absolutely don't want to have to stick on Luka as primary. So....yeah.
Maybe it's time for Steph and Dray to come down with a sudden illness... we're not beating Dallas without those three guys (assuming none of them play).
The league could see right through that and fine the Dubs for resting both of them. But if Luka sits, we have a decent chance even without JK, GP2, and Wiggs. We'll need guys to step up, of course. Moody could be a difference maker.
I have a feeling we'll see all 3 tonight
NewsFlash from TJD Atoll:
Trayce has filled that role,” Curry said. “It gives Draymond a little bit more freedom to be a pest out there, being help side, being able to attack the ball knowing that there’s a presence behind him. Trayce has done an unbelievable job of learning how to be aggressive, pick and choose his spots, how to protect the rim and just play sound defense. Then we’re trying to fly around that, and it even helps to have Wiggs applying so much ball pressure to their primary scorer. The pieces fit.”
The Athletic today
And that's the key - "pieces fit". It's not necessarily about if TJD is better than having JK with Dray sliding to 5. All that is assuming we continue getting the good Wiggs.
Hopefully JK embraces coming off the bench and hopefully he gets to play 20+ minutes.
The main reason why it could be beneficial to both sides if Kuminga is traded (assuming we can get some good pieces back). Kuminga would be able to start in another team. Though Kuminga would still work great off the bench here, but he def doesn’t want that and I don’t blame him.
Even if Klay drops off next year, I’d rather go with Steph-Moody-Wiggs-Dray-TJD than put Kuminga back in
Dray will be 35 next season. You don’t trade your best young players for “some good pieces” because of a perceived future minutes conflict with a guy who might have a year left in his prime.
Dray has played only 17 minutes per Warriors game this season, which is likely a big reason why he’s been so effective on those minutes. And even with that mild minutes load, he’s been bothered by back issues which have dogged him periodically over the years. Chronic back issues tend not improve as you enter your mid-late 30s.
Seems pretty obvious that Dray should be moving more to an Iguodala-like bench role in the final chapter of his career. Enter Kuminga.
I mean … I’m familiar with recency bias, but this trade Kuminga nonsense is next level.
Also, the way to extend to Dray BB life is not to play him at 5.
Everytime I see him defend a big 4 inches taller/50 lbs heavier than him with his hand on their back as they are trying to back him down, I cringe at how much strain it puts on his back.
If Steph is starting, Dray is starting.
Not necessarily. People said the same thing about Klay until he was benched. Obviously, Dray's synergy with Steph is legendary, but next season we want JK, TJD, BP, and MM to start developing that synergy as well. Leaning too much on 34-35 y.o. gray-bearded Dray risks depriving them of the opportunity to develop as playmakers and decision-makers — the same opportunity young Dray got when Kerr benched David Lee.
But I get it: Dray's been totally awesome the last 4-5 games, while JK's been hurt, and the Warriors have been kicking ass. Forget about the minor "JK is thirteen years younger" detail — recency bias *always* wins on sports blogs. I'm as guilty of it as the next guy/gal.
Dray is a Steph multiplier. All stats say so. If I remember correctly, somebody mentioned during one of the pregames that there is statistically significant difference in Steph's stats with Dray on and Dray off.
As Steph gets slower, he is going to need someone who can create for him and set killer screens. May be Podz can be that person or JK will step up to but not in next two years.
I don't want to trade Kuminga. But I also don't want him to have to come off the bench and possibly cause issues. (Maybe he'll gladly come off the bench if he's getting 30mpg who knows). You're bringing up Dray coming off the bench next year like it'll happen for sure. Most likely he's still going to start. And if we continue looking good with TJD at center, that's not going to stop either.
I realize starting is a prestige thing in the NBA but if JK is getting that 30 mpg and is often in the closing lineup with the game on the line, that might make the difference.
But I'm not 100% convinced that Wiggs will remain the starter if he isn't consistent. If JK can improve his shooting over the summer, get his 3-pointers up to around 37% (where he was last season), and make some defensive strides, he could take that starting job. His FT% is already comparable to Wiggs this year (74%) and improving so a 3-pt improvement seems within reach.
I'm still looking at this year as the outlier for Wiggins. He wasn't doing this any of his other seasons with us so why should we expect this next year, esp when he's still in his prime
Go Celtics 🤢
Go Spurs
Go Wolves
Celtics got nothing left to fight for. They have clinched HCA all the way through.
They might just lose to piss us off
Nah, they'll see Mike Brown on the opponent's bench and want to kick him in the face.
Outside of the whole thing in 2022 I don't really care for Boston as a franchise enough to hate them. Bill Russell carried them with all of those titles back then because they've been very 21st century Niner Like (good regular season teams but always fall short in the playoffs) after Bird retired outside of that single greatest championship team ever in 08 lol
Russell didn't carry those Celtic teams, he just led them. They were absolutely loaded with Cousy, Heinsohn, Sharman, KC Jones, Sam Jones, Satch Sanders, Havlicek (a bit later). Every one in the HOF.
Didn't hurt that for a good part of the Celtics' run with Bill Russell, there were only 8 teams in the league. A little easier than with 30 teams
Boston fans are generally arrogant and awful.
My bonafides: DFiB used to stand for Dubs Fan in Boston.
Oh, yeah. The fans for damn sure.
I really enjoyed Bob Myers interview with JJ Reddick: https://youtu.be/banyykAN1m8?si=lKCyiB5WeMujR7vb
I rewatched game 5 and 6 of the 2019 Finals and our player development/roster construction totally cost us the title, even with KD and Klay being hurt. We were playing Quinn Cook and Jonas Jerebko in important minutes, with Jacob Evans on the bench. I feel like Myers was asleep at the wheel for awhile.
Cutting Damion Lee from the playoff roster and leaving Klay with no backup SG was one of my least favorite moves of that era, from the time they did it.
No question relying on Q and Jerebko (and Evans taking up a roster spot) cost us. But I think with a healthy Klay and KD we would have won in 2019, and I don't think it would even be that close. We were down two HOFers in their prime.
You should watch the interview. I'm sure he blames himself way more than any fan. Though I don't agree with you on that point.
Fire Myers!
Oh wait.
Yup - Could have used DLee to create space. We almost won game 6.
> NBA has shared salary cap projections with teams for 2024-2025 season, sources tell ESPN. Projections are unchanged from January.
> Salary Cap: $141 million
> Minimum team salary: $127M
> Tax Level: $172M
> First Apron: $179M
> Second Apron: $190M
https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1776273502594646339
Warriors currently have 174 million on the payroll for next season, but that includes CP3's 30 million (fully non-guaranteed) and Looney's 8 million (partially guaranteed for 3 million). So if they get rid of both players they would be at 139 million before making any other moves, which is technically under the salary cap.
GP2's next season is a player option for 9 million, I gotta assume he takes it unless he and the Warriors could come to some sort of agreement where he opts out and re-signs for more years but less money per year to cut their payroll a bit more. But perhaps they would salary dump him if they needed the space given that he's an expiring contract without a massive salary.
Lacob has said he wants to be out of the tax entirely next season so the big question that will dictate what the Warriors can do will be Klay's contract. I assume the Warriors will backload whatever deal they give him as getting out of the tax this year is the main priority to set them up for the next few, but if he took some sort of discount then they would likely have access to the entire 13 million MLE and possibly more.
Could they get someone for the 13M MLE who is currently better than GP2?
doubt it
Isn't he signed next year. Also he'd go for more than 13m
GP2 has a player option for next season at $9.1M. Presumably he'll opt in. I doubt he could get more in free agency, and the Dubs know how to use him to mutual advantage.
I replied to the wrong comment oops. Was supposed to be to the Caruso comment
Alex Caruso would be my guess. But when the Warriors tried to get him, Bulls' asking price was too high, so the Warriors backed off.
I don't think exceptions work that way. You need to be below whatever line is applicable after including the exception.
Right, so if they remain under the luxury tax line of 172 million then they can use the non-taxpayer MLE
They need to be at $166 to use $13M FMLE. From CBAFaq:
This exception is available only when a team is below the "Apron" (see question number 20). This determination is made after the exception is used, so a team below the Apron cannot use this exception if doing so takes it above the Apron
Right, that's what I'm saying. Depending on Klay's deal, they might have access to the entire 13 million MLE while remaining under the luxury tax line.
There's a question of if they have access to some of the MLE if they are under the luxury tax line by less than 13 million though. Also I'm not sure where you are getting 166 from, the tax line is projected at 172.
If I remember correctly, we can pay Klay 22 million and get access to the entire 13 million MLE.
One thing I forgot. Apron line doesn't matter if Lacob's goal is to.stay below the tax line. Hopefully we get to atleast second round of playoffs and due to the extra revenue, Lacob gives up the goal of staying below tax.
I'm kinda lost. I thought losing an MLE was a second apron restriction, not a luxury tax restriction.
The way I thought it worked:
If you are below the taxpayer line (after exercising the option, apparently), you have the FMLE, if you are above the taxpayer line but below the second apron, you have the TPMLE, and if you are above the 2nd apron, you have no MLE.
So, I think the relevant line would be: $192 mil - TPMLE, to have at least the TPMLE.
All I knows is some days I feel like I need a FML Exception…
It's weird terminology but FMLE is tied to first Apron and not tax line. As per CBAFaq.
Taxpayer MLE (TPMLE) is the one that maxed out at like 5 million, we are talking about the non-taxpayer MLE that maxes out at like 13 million.
Apron is different than tax line. And yes, one could use part of it e.g. $10M.
Oh wow, so it sounds like it is pretty likely they'll be able to offer the full MLE then, that's dope. Thanks for the correction.
Warriors front office has got a lot to think about in the upcoming offseason. Keep Klay or let him walk? Who do we trade and who do we sign or re-sign?
I think the decision on Thompson is pretty much financial. If he's reasonable, he stays. If he wants big bucks, he could be out -- not because the Ws don't want him but because they can't afford to allocate that much to a guy who just can't bring it consistently. Gotta spend money on JK and Moody.
I think they waive Looney but bring him back on the minimum, so let's count him for 5.5 instead of 8. Wiggs could definitely be moved. They need to account for Moody and Kuminga extensions in a year, so they can't go too crazy.
I'm still expecting Loon to dominate Sabonis in the play-in to get the Dubs into the playoffs - if he does that, he's probably gonna stay with the team on his regular contract.
To be honest I was under the impression that if you waived someone you couldn't re-sign them but I realized with your comment that that is probably wrong. So I agree, Looney will probably be waived and back for the minimum.
Unless we can upgrade from Loon. We still could use a bigger, springier backup 5 behind TJD.
I don't think you can.
The Warriors waived GP2 before re-signing him in the 2021-2022 season
Wasn't that from 2-way? I could be wrong.
At the very least, other teams could claim off the waiver block i. e. he needs to clear the waivers. But who would want LoonDaw?
GP2 was on a regular contract, they signed him at the end of 2020-2021 to the 15 man roster.
Also the other teams could but is any team looking to claim Looney for 8 million when no one has ever seemed interested in signing him for that amount in free agency and now he's coming off a down season?
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2023/06/07/suns-plan-to-waive-veteran-guard-chris-paul/70299796007/
"If the Suns waive him and he clears waivers, he could re-sign with the team at a lower salary than $30.8 million, allowing the Suns to retain a nucleus of Paul, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant."
I assume this would apply to Looney (if no one picks him up at the 8 million figure)
Do you think they'd dump GP2? GP2, Kuminga/Moody, + Wiggs would be nice salary ballast for any big salary. Also would be their only good chance to not be subject to luxury tax rules, if the goal is to get under for 1 season.
Remove emotion and I'm not sure Klay is worth much more than vet min. His on-off is still atrocious and we may not be able to properly rein him in like a new team might be able to. Plus, Moody would slip into his spot, GPII would no longer cause a guard minutes crunch, Podz would have plenty of time. But add emotion back in? I'm not sure I want to watch Klay in a Magic uniform.
Remove the emotion of "what have you done for me this season" and there is atleast one team in the league which will pay him $30M. Last 15 games, he is averaging 20 pts a game on 45% FG, 40% 3 pt, 60% TS.
But add it to a larger context and you have a player who hasn't had a league average TS% since coming back from two major injuries, doesn't rebound or assist nearly well enough to be a forward, and who can no longer guard good 1's or 2's very well.
He still unquestionably has NBA skills - his 3P is a legitimate top 5 NBA weapon still. But size still matters and he's an undersized forward who can't really do much besides shoot open 3Ps and defend slower 3's and 4's. He kind of forces you to play small given his limitations. And he's only going to get worse from here.
Again, I love Klay. But if you subscribe to a year too early rather than a year too late? There's no question you let him go this offseason if he's any more than vet min.
Yeah TBH Klay is definitely not a max player anymore but he's not a vet minimum type of guy either. He's still a very legit threat from deep that could help a contender in a smaller role as a 3rd scoring option. I'd say 20-25m for Klay is still fair value for both parties
This. And $25M is right around what Draymond and Wiggs will get next season. So that range makes sense from that perspective too.
He's definitely worth more than the vet min but probably not more than 15-20m.
I think $15m per should be the very top of our range. Klay is really just Kyle Korver at this point and if someone else wants to pay more for that over the next 2-3 seasons, wish him well. It allows MDJ more flexibility and Moody is ready to step in at SG now. Also, letting Klay go as the first step of moving on from the Dynasty allows the heartbreak to come in stages.
Kyle Korver never saw the day he was as good as Klay is even now. Korver was always a one-trick pony, a great 3-point shooter, no more, no less. Klay has lost a few steps but he has improved in setting up teammates, as witness his work with TJD. He is slower now but he's still a better defender than Korver ever was. He's even a better rebounder than Korver although that's a low bar. Klay gets to the rim more than Korver did too.
Admittedly the comparison is probably somewhat premature, and I too am encouraged by the way he now is dishing the ball more effectively (especially the chemistry with TJD). But my reply was in the context of a discussion about an upcoming contract in the $15-25m range. Klay will likely want a 3-year deal, and I see his defense and overall effectiveness inevitably becoming more "Korver-like" over the life of that contract.
I'm a salary cap moron and could be entirely wrong but does letting Klay walk for nothing really net them that much? It seems like it would guarantee that they could use the full MLE, but depending on what Klay takes that might be available to them regardless. It could allow them to keep CP3 if they wanted though, I suppose?
Honestly... next year could set up pretty nice. Another year older for the OG's, I know...
Holy crap the UFA class this year is bad. I think Monk and Hartenstein and would be the only ones on my wish list if I made to make one
https://hoopshype.com/lists/knicks-isaiah-hartenstein-on-free-agency-i-love-it-here-hopefully-well-figure-something-out/
Per this article, several executives believe Hartenstein could command around the full non-taxpayer MLE this summer, and Hartenstein says that while "business is business", if the money is equal with the offers he gets he'll stay on the Knicks.
I'm curious though because the Knicks have Mitchell Robinson so if the Warriors were able to offer him the full MLE, a starting spot, and a system that suits his passing strengths, would that be enough?
But maybe due to the scarcity of quality free agents in the class he ends up getting more than that, which would be a bummer.
I still am mad the Dubs didn't sign him a year or two ago when he would have been cheaper. He's always had elite per minute stats and he would have fit so perfectly. But he's yet another Wiseman casualty.
It's the small things - not re-signing GPII, not getting Hartenstein or another center in 2020-2021 (and even last year to a lesser extent), putting more wear and tear on Draymond and Looney. All from the consequences of one bad decision.
I do believe that having Wiseman on the roster made it a non-starter for Hartenstein although that will probably never be confirmed/refuted. Brutal.
Per Myers on the broadcast when we played the Knicks, they did try to sign Hartenstein but didn’t land him. Up to you whether to believe him or not though.
I believe him because I think we did know that from some report at the time. But I think if you are Hartenstein in that situation and you see the Clippers with Zubac and nobody to back him up (Hartenstein ended up beating out Harry Giles for the backup spot, not exactly strong competition) and then you see the Warriors with Looney and Wiseman who the Warriors were committed to in a way that was pretty obvious to see, the Clippers just look like a better career move.
He was asleep at the wheel anyways...