I'm sure it's been said on this site before but it's getting more and more apparent that the Warriors have serious issues against teams with a dominant rim protector and athleticism all around them. The Lakers from last year and the Cavs/Wolves so far have been an absolute nightmare for the Warriors to score.
Part of this is cause AD/Allen/Mobley/Gobert are great but it's also because the Warriors are simply not a great offensive team.
They attempt (and make) the least amount of shots in the restricted area (12.5/18.5), are 29th in the NBA in % of points in the paint (35.9%) and 28th in % of fast break points (9.7%). The only team who scores less in the paint is the Mavericks, who are also the best shooting team in the league (40% from 3 on 44 3s per game). The Warriors are 20th in 3 point shooting (35% on 39 3s per game). Remove Steph and we're at 30.2% on 26.5 3s per game.
It's pretty basic logic - if you cannot reliably score inside, you have to compensate with elite outside shooting. Some of it is a team-wide slump and will likely be fixed by regression to the mean.
According to NBA.com (not 100% correct but still), the Warriors take the 4th most "open" 3s (closest defender is 4-6 feet away) but are 29th in percentage (25.6%). Klay is at 21%, Moody, Saric and Wiggins are at 11%, and CP3 is at 0%. There has to be some positive regression there.
That can explain a lot but the Warriors still have a larger issue at hand. They are still one of the best teams off screens and handoffs but against the better teams in the leagues, the motion doesn't get clean shots consistently. In yesterday's game, McDaniels was consistently shooting the gap when they tried the split-action. Pick and rolls provide little to no advantage because neither Looney, Draymond or Saric can consistently score against a guy like Gobert, even when rolling downhill and with an angle. Warriors are bottom 10 in PPP in both isolations and P&R ball handler and bottom 10 in the frequency of both. Only reason Warriors are putting up points besides Steph's brilliance is cause they're one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league
The reality is there are still roster problems. Yes, the entire team outside Steph and Draymond can shoot (much) better but our offensive philosophy is mostly outdated and the lineups aren't helping at all. There is no creator on this team outside Steph and against better defensive teams, that problem is shining brighter each and every game.
Ballmer's probably about ready to have an embolism.
I bet he thought he could buy a team, throw a bunch of money at it, and win a few championships. They've had so many moves go wrong for one reason or another (injuries to Kawhi and George being the biggest ones).
I honestly think Kerr's idea that he can play the OG b2b as long as he keeps their minutes down is wrong. I think this early stretch has shown that the OG need more rest than they've been getting, and I hope Kerr shifts his stance moving forward.
I think this is just an early season thing. In the past, they've started resting people after a month or so. It wouldn't surprise me if that starts soon.
Complete agreement. If TJD and Pods were in there a lot last night, we may not have won, but they would have gotten valuable experience and the vets would get rest. How is that not the best case?
Its been 3 years since the Dubs drafted a lottery pick. We should know by now that Kerr is extremely enamored with the OGs, and no amount of athleticism, BBIQ, height, speed, ball-handling, shot-blocking, or anything else is gonna push him off his commitment to play the OG like its 2017.
Overally, I think he's spot on, with the only really big caveat being that the rest of the Dubs just have to do a better job. Curry got his, but the efficiency was down, and the rest of the Dubs' couldn't capitalize with Gobert roaming the paint. Realistically, Curry needs a pick n' pop partner against the Wolves. Dray was left alone on the three waaaay too much, with Gobert in drop ready to contest any Curry drive. Curry dumped it back to Dray multiple times, and Dray just couldn't capitalize most of the time. I don't know if JK or even TJD would've made a difference, but I am curious if Saric could've worked - say a lineup of Saric, JK, MM, Klay, Steph. It's gonna struggle a bit defensively and size-wise, but I think there's enough competent shooting in MM, Klay, and Saric to punish Gobert in drop, and JK, MM, Steph, and even Saric can punish the Wolves if they bring Gobert out to the perimeter.
Dray was looking for a Steph relocate a few times that never manifested. I suspect it never manifested because everybody has a game plan for that at this point, and the TWolves were leaving Dray wide open at the top of the key, guarding him with Gobert who could to sink into the paint without penalty of a 3 second call. This allowed the guys on the wing to guard 2v2 without worrying about a back cut (because Gobert would be there at the rim). If Dray can hit that wide open top of the key shot at 36-37%, that changes the math.
Klay, Moses, Chris, Andrew, Dario, and Jonathan are a combined 12/86 on "Open 3s" through 10 games. That's 14% makes. If that group could hit even 33% on "Open 3s", that would be 16 more made 3s across the 10 games.
Add to that: Chris, Andrew, and JK are a combined 10/40 on "Wide open 3s".
These guys need to settle in, get to mind like water, and just make their open shots.
I'd imagine our open threes are more difficult than other teams' because Steph and Klay's 'open' shots generally come from sprinting off screens, making them quite difficult still. I don't think other teams take nearly as many threes off the move.
Now explain CP3, Moses, Andrew, Dario, and Jonathan. Also explain "Why is Klay shooting 21% on 'open 3s' this year, when he was at 40%+ every other year in his career"
Klay's taken tough movement shots his whole career. There's not really a logical explanation for why it is different this year, to my eye.
Lol... it really changes it for players like Dray/Andrew with pretty flat shots. But only against Wemby. Not against, say, Gobert who's just standing in the paint.
This was what I was thinking last night, too. I just didn't know how to get the stats. Steph is rarely ever OPEN, much less WIDE OPEN, so he brings up the Dubs' 3P% on TIGHT and VERY TIGHT. But the rest of the team dominates the OPEN category, and they've been putrid. They absolutely need to start hitting those at league average or career rates.
With all the road games and home games basically being like road games, they've had hardly any practice time, no? It's like they were expected to hit the ground running in a way that many teams haven't been. I like your take. It will soothe me at least until tomorrow night.
It feels like ever since the @Thunder game, Wiggins, Klay, Moody, and Kuminga have started to shoot worse. Here's how each of the players have performed since that game:
CP3 has looked off throughout the season, though he's had decent shooting nights in the @Pels, @Pistons, and vs. Cavs games. It feels like tired legs are affecting the way the players I've mentioned above are playing right now.
I think it’s a combo of recovery from injury, hangover from last year’s “personal issues” and missing his bestie JP3. He’s simply distracted…totally lacks focus. A new home in Toronto might be what he needs. Trade possibilities?
Nov 13, 2023·edited Nov 13, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot
We're too old and have also played the most games of any team in the league at this point - only DET has played 11 games too and SAC has only played 8 games. Having the most condensed schedule with 0 planned rest games and basically 0 practice time has the team's play looking ugly...
Well we can be very happy that wiggins is playing better than James Haden - who is a -60 in 4 games. No I am not going to look up Wiggins "-" - it has to be better than Harden's - right - right !
The core issue is right now the team has way too many non-shooters (Dray, Looney, Wiggins, Kuminga, GP2, CP3). Regardless of percentages, teams are daring those guys to shoot and they won't. Looney, I'll give a pass. But everyone else is so hesitant. The hesitation allows defenses to reset and it's just gummed up the offense. The spacing is also terrible, which in turn makes it really hard for Wiggs/Kuminga to drive.
It's hard enough playing 2 non-shooters in today's NBA. But some of these lineups have 4!
Moody & Saric need to hit more of their open shots...but at least they are shooting - and even they hesitate sometimes.
If they are giving you open 3s, they need to shoot. If they can't make them over a large sample size, well, then that's a roster / talent issue and they're fucked anyway.
Back off from the edge Warrior fans. Shootin' bricks can be fixed. I'm starting to wonder about the CP3 trade. He got his pocket picked more than once last night. And he's only giving the Warriors 8 ppg (14 last season). Plus NO transition Bball with Paul either. Not good.
As my previous comments suggested, our 1st team needs rejuvenation. For next game against Wolves, Mr Kerr I respectfully suggest you play Saric @5, Draymond @4, Moody @3, Payton @2, and Curry. You get little more height, length, and athleticism. As importantly, you get your most consistent shooters/scorers playing with the GOAT.
Your 2nd will upgrade with Kevon, Wiggins, and Thompson. Let them build back confidence against opponents backups. With CP3, they should play smoothly. Adding JK should provide a lot of offensive options.
If Wiggins and/or Klay needs rest from slump, we fans would love to see TJD and Podj on 2nd team too.
this makes me think of constructing dynamic starting lineups based on opponent playing style and individual matchups.
the dominant practice is to put yr 5 “best” players as “starters,” regardless of potential mismatches.
wouldn’t a lightyears approach be to set yr starters based on matchup (in addition to current performance/needs such as rejuvenation as Gerald suggested)?
ie don’t bring a knife to a gunfight kind of thing?
Starters based on matchups happen in the playoffs. Regular season is just about stable roles to get through the season. Players hate undefined roles. Biggest example was Poole last year.
Yeah. It’s like the point of Draymond’s early in the game threes are to get some respect and pull a big out of the middle. If it’s not working, you’ve got to have the confidence to keep shooting. (and if he doesn’t, I’m not sure I do either). In the early days of the big three, Draymond did pull out some defense. If he can’t do so again, putting him and Looney on the floor together vs these defensive juggernauts may not be tenable.
https://dubnationhq.com/p/wiggins-doesnt-ball-out-warriors wait wait how did we lose again??
I'm sure it's been said on this site before but it's getting more and more apparent that the Warriors have serious issues against teams with a dominant rim protector and athleticism all around them. The Lakers from last year and the Cavs/Wolves so far have been an absolute nightmare for the Warriors to score.
Part of this is cause AD/Allen/Mobley/Gobert are great but it's also because the Warriors are simply not a great offensive team.
They attempt (and make) the least amount of shots in the restricted area (12.5/18.5), are 29th in the NBA in % of points in the paint (35.9%) and 28th in % of fast break points (9.7%). The only team who scores less in the paint is the Mavericks, who are also the best shooting team in the league (40% from 3 on 44 3s per game). The Warriors are 20th in 3 point shooting (35% on 39 3s per game). Remove Steph and we're at 30.2% on 26.5 3s per game.
It's pretty basic logic - if you cannot reliably score inside, you have to compensate with elite outside shooting. Some of it is a team-wide slump and will likely be fixed by regression to the mean.
According to NBA.com (not 100% correct but still), the Warriors take the 4th most "open" 3s (closest defender is 4-6 feet away) but are 29th in percentage (25.6%). Klay is at 21%, Moody, Saric and Wiggins are at 11%, and CP3 is at 0%. There has to be some positive regression there.
That can explain a lot but the Warriors still have a larger issue at hand. They are still one of the best teams off screens and handoffs but against the better teams in the leagues, the motion doesn't get clean shots consistently. In yesterday's game, McDaniels was consistently shooting the gap when they tried the split-action. Pick and rolls provide little to no advantage because neither Looney, Draymond or Saric can consistently score against a guy like Gobert, even when rolling downhill and with an angle. Warriors are bottom 10 in PPP in both isolations and P&R ball handler and bottom 10 in the frequency of both. Only reason Warriors are putting up points besides Steph's brilliance is cause they're one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league
The reality is there are still roster problems. Yes, the entire team outside Steph and Draymond can shoot (much) better but our offensive philosophy is mostly outdated and the lineups aren't helping at all. There is no creator on this team outside Steph and against better defensive teams, that problem is shining brighter each and every game.
Off. and def. efficiency of teams in the Pacific Division:
Warriors: #8 offense; #14 defense
Kings: #25 offense; #16 defense
Lakers: #26 offense; #19 defense
Suns: #17 offense; #15 defense
Clippers: #13 offense; #10 defense
But what about the Clippers post-Harden?
Before Harden: #4 offense, #5 defense
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?DateTo=11/05/2023&dir=A&sort=OFF_RATING
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1&DateTo=11%2F05%2F2023
After Harden: #30 offense, #25 defense
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?DateFrom=11/06/2023&DateTo=&dir=A&sort=OFF_RATING
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?DateFrom=11/06/2023&DateTo=&dir=A&sort=DEF_RATING
😂
Ballmer's probably about ready to have an embolism.
I bet he thought he could buy a team, throw a bunch of money at it, and win a few championships. They've had so many moves go wrong for one reason or another (injuries to Kawhi and George being the biggest ones).
It shows that you can't build a roster by throwing in a bunch of former star players and hope that it'll work.
<Insert Harden walkaway gif>
I honestly think Kerr's idea that he can play the OG b2b as long as he keeps their minutes down is wrong. I think this early stretch has shown that the OG need more rest than they've been getting, and I hope Kerr shifts his stance moving forward.
I think this is just an early season thing. In the past, they've started resting people after a month or so. It wouldn't surprise me if that starts soon.
Complete agreement. If TJD and Pods were in there a lot last night, we may not have won, but they would have gotten valuable experience and the vets would get rest. How is that not the best case?
Its been 3 years since the Dubs drafted a lottery pick. We should know by now that Kerr is extremely enamored with the OGs, and no amount of athleticism, BBIQ, height, speed, ball-handling, shot-blocking, or anything else is gonna push him off his commitment to play the OG like its 2017.
Fascinating YT breakdown from the Wolves perspective of Steph vs. Jaden McDaniels:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIYJRvzQ5sU
Overally, I think he's spot on, with the only really big caveat being that the rest of the Dubs just have to do a better job. Curry got his, but the efficiency was down, and the rest of the Dubs' couldn't capitalize with Gobert roaming the paint. Realistically, Curry needs a pick n' pop partner against the Wolves. Dray was left alone on the three waaaay too much, with Gobert in drop ready to contest any Curry drive. Curry dumped it back to Dray multiple times, and Dray just couldn't capitalize most of the time. I don't know if JK or even TJD would've made a difference, but I am curious if Saric could've worked - say a lineup of Saric, JK, MM, Klay, Steph. It's gonna struggle a bit defensively and size-wise, but I think there's enough competent shooting in MM, Klay, and Saric to punish Gobert in drop, and JK, MM, Steph, and even Saric can punish the Wolves if they bring Gobert out to the perimeter.
Dray was looking for a Steph relocate a few times that never manifested. I suspect it never manifested because everybody has a game plan for that at this point, and the TWolves were leaving Dray wide open at the top of the key, guarding him with Gobert who could to sink into the paint without penalty of a 3 second call. This allowed the guys on the wing to guard 2v2 without worrying about a back cut (because Gobert would be there at the rim). If Dray can hit that wide open top of the key shot at 36-37%, that changes the math.
How much of this poor shooting is connected to the pace slowing down when Paul is playing?
Not like the starting lineup without Paul is shooting lights out
Nah, this team is just slumping from distance. From a quick dive into the NBA.com stats:
NBA.com stats say our team, on the whole, is in the top 5 3P% teams on very tight, tight, and wide open 3s... but 2nd to last on "open" 3s.
Here's the Warriors breakdown of "Open" shooting:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shots-closest-defender?TeamID=1610612744&CloseDefDistRange=4-6+Feet+-+Open
Klay, Moses, Chris, Andrew, Dario, and Jonathan are a combined 12/86 on "Open 3s" through 10 games. That's 14% makes. If that group could hit even 33% on "Open 3s", that would be 16 more made 3s across the 10 games.
Add to that: Chris, Andrew, and JK are a combined 10/40 on "Wide open 3s".
These guys need to settle in, get to mind like water, and just make their open shots.
this is great info - thank you!
Caveat: NBA designation of very tight/tight/open/wide open isn't an exact science... but it should be relatively close to accurate.
I'd imagine our open threes are more difficult than other teams' because Steph and Klay's 'open' shots generally come from sprinting off screens, making them quite difficult still. I don't think other teams take nearly as many threes off the move.
Now explain CP3, Moses, Andrew, Dario, and Jonathan. Also explain "Why is Klay shooting 21% on 'open 3s' this year, when he was at 40%+ every other year in his career"
Klay's taken tough movement shots his whole career. There's not really a logical explanation for why it is different this year, to my eye.
Also, with Wemby in the league it totally changes the designation tight/open.
Lol... it really changes it for players like Dray/Andrew with pretty flat shots. But only against Wemby. Not against, say, Gobert who's just standing in the paint.
This was what I was thinking last night, too. I just didn't know how to get the stats. Steph is rarely ever OPEN, much less WIDE OPEN, so he brings up the Dubs' 3P% on TIGHT and VERY TIGHT. But the rest of the team dominates the OPEN category, and they've been putrid. They absolutely need to start hitting those at league average or career rates.
Steph actually takes plenty of good shots as open and wide open (10.3 3PA/game combined), while only taking a few tight/very tight (2.0 3PA/game).
With all the road games and home games basically being like road games, they've had hardly any practice time, no? It's like they were expected to hit the ground running in a way that many teams haven't been. I like your take. It will soothe me at least until tomorrow night.
If their main rotation players just can’t hit open shots, they are done, and Steph has no help.
It feels like ever since the @Thunder game, Wiggins, Klay, Moody, and Kuminga have started to shoot worse. Here's how each of the players have performed since that game:
Wiggins: 3/9 FGs, 1/2 threes -> 2/9 FGs, 0/2 threes -> 4/13 FGs, 0/3 threes -> 6/12 FGs, 1/4 threes -> 3/7 FGs, 0/2 threes
Klay: 5/14 FGs, 3/9 threes -> 8/16 FGs, 1/8 threes -> 5/12 FGs, 2/8 threes -> 5/16 FGs, 2/5 threes -> 5/16 FGs, 3/10 threes
Moody: 1/3 FGs, 0/2 threes -> 2/6 FGs, 0/2 threes -> 4/7 FGs, 2/3 threes -> 2/4 FGs, 2/3 threes -> 1/6 FGs, 0/4 threes
Kuminga: 5/14 FGs, 1/4 threes -> 2/8 FGs, 0/3 threes -> 4/12 FGs, 0/1 three -> 2/7 FGs, 0/1 three -> 2/11 FGs, 0/3 threes
CP3 has looked off throughout the season, though he's had decent shooting nights in the @Pels, @Pistons, and vs. Cavs games. It feels like tired legs are affecting the way the players I've mentioned above are playing right now.
Yeah! Kerr as a player/coach! lets do it!
More Podz, more TJD, and probably less Looney and Klay. But keep Cory Joseph on the bench.
In the final minutes? That doesn't really count in my book.
WTF is wrong with Wiggins?
To my eye, it really looks like every game he looks 2% more like himself. Really hoping this long homestand gets him (and Klay) out of their funk.
I think it’s a combo of recovery from injury, hangover from last year’s “personal issues” and missing his bestie JP3. He’s simply distracted…totally lacks focus. A new home in Toronto might be what he needs. Trade possibilities?
He is probably watching his '22 playoff highlights at this very moment, searching for the answer.
Insert “Wolverine Remembers” meme, with Wiggs wistfully gazing at a framed pic of his ‘22 self…
We're too old and have also played the most games of any team in the league at this point - only DET has played 11 games too and SAC has only played 8 games. Having the most condensed schedule with 0 planned rest games and basically 0 practice time has the team's play looking ugly...
Well we can be very happy that wiggins is playing better than James Haden - who is a -60 in 4 games. No I am not going to look up Wiggins "-" - it has to be better than Harden's - right - right !
The core issue is right now the team has way too many non-shooters (Dray, Looney, Wiggins, Kuminga, GP2, CP3). Regardless of percentages, teams are daring those guys to shoot and they won't. Looney, I'll give a pass. But everyone else is so hesitant. The hesitation allows defenses to reset and it's just gummed up the offense. The spacing is also terrible, which in turn makes it really hard for Wiggs/Kuminga to drive.
It's hard enough playing 2 non-shooters in today's NBA. But some of these lineups have 4!
Moody & Saric need to hit more of their open shots...but at least they are shooting - and even they hesitate sometimes.
If they are giving you open 3s, they need to shoot. If they can't make them over a large sample size, well, then that's a roster / talent issue and they're fucked anyway.
I rigged up my own flashy thingy with my cell phone, a plunger, and a bunch of duct tape.
I don't remember anything, but the plumbing in my house runs better than it has in years.
How do you recall what the flahsy thing is after using the flashy thing?
Writings on your body a la Momento
Notes!
I will read the 200+ comments already racked up,
but for now..."They too old, Ernie"
Back off from the edge Warrior fans. Shootin' bricks can be fixed. I'm starting to wonder about the CP3 trade. He got his pocket picked more than once last night. And he's only giving the Warriors 8 ppg (14 last season). Plus NO transition Bball with Paul either. Not good.
As my previous comments suggested, our 1st team needs rejuvenation. For next game against Wolves, Mr Kerr I respectfully suggest you play Saric @5, Draymond @4, Moody @3, Payton @2, and Curry. You get little more height, length, and athleticism. As importantly, you get your most consistent shooters/scorers playing with the GOAT.
Your 2nd will upgrade with Kevon, Wiggins, and Thompson. Let them build back confidence against opponents backups. With CP3, they should play smoothly. Adding JK should provide a lot of offensive options.
If Wiggins and/or Klay needs rest from slump, we fans would love to see TJD and Podj on 2nd team too.
Coach, You’re welcome in advance.
Sincerely,
Assistant armchair Coach Gerald
this makes me think of constructing dynamic starting lineups based on opponent playing style and individual matchups.
the dominant practice is to put yr 5 “best” players as “starters,” regardless of potential mismatches.
wouldn’t a lightyears approach be to set yr starters based on matchup (in addition to current performance/needs such as rejuvenation as Gerald suggested)?
ie don’t bring a knife to a gunfight kind of thing?
They do that in the playoffs. I assume it has to do with having time to prepare... the regular season barely gives us time to practice
Starters based on matchups happen in the playoffs. Regular season is just about stable roles to get through the season. Players hate undefined roles. Biggest example was Poole last year.
Maybe Draynond shooting 45% from three is some "monkey paw curls, Klay and Wiggins must give up their shooting stroke in its place" shit
It also does no good if teams still sag off him and he still won't shoot it
Yeah. It’s like the point of Draymond’s early in the game threes are to get some respect and pull a big out of the middle. If it’s not working, you’ve got to have the confidence to keep shooting. (and if he doesn’t, I’m not sure I do either). In the early days of the big three, Draymond did pull out some defense. If he can’t do so again, putting him and Looney on the floor together vs these defensive juggernauts may not be tenable.