164 Comments

Thinking about the buyout season and who might be replaced on the roster …. My first thought is JTA. He’s the farthest down the line, has regressed significantly this season, and as ‘captain of garbage time’ doesn’t have an important spot on the team. If someone interesting comes up - Dragic? Robin Lopez? Mike Muscala? - he would be gone.

Next up is Nemenja. While I think it’s unlikely he’d get cut, he too has been inconsistent this season. While he half fills the role of a good passing big man, he isn’t a powerhouse on the boards. Yes, he has his moments. But even if we got someone like Lopez I’d see them as more a complement to the Bjeli rather than as a replacement.

Andre Igoudala. Hey put those pitch forks down! It’s just some dude rosterbating! I’ve been getting increasingly worried about Andre. He’s played in one game this month and had to come out almost immediately due to injury. For playoff Andre we need 15 minutes or more of playing time in 10-15 games. Does he have that in him? Is the staff saving him for the post season or has he actually been injured? I’m sure they know a lot more about his health than we do. Discussing this with my buddies last night there was a lot of talk about how valuable he is as a coach/mentor. He doesn’t need a roster spot to mentor. If they cut him and replace him with, say, Dragic, and sign him on as a special advisor to the team, it will be because they know things we don’t about his health. Of course, I would prefer a healthy, one last post season of glory Andre. But Dragic running the second team in his place sounds pretty sweet, too.

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Sadly, I agree about JTA. One other reason it could be him is that he's still eligible for a two-way, so they could cut him and if he doesn't get picked up elsewhere, re-sign him to a two-way in place of Chiozza.

Something that's harder to calculate: If they cut ANY of these guys, there could be blowback. One downside of such a cohesive, one-for-all-and-all-for-one kind of roster is that if they cut a guy, it sends ripples through the roster as guys' trust is greatly reduced. JTA is a beloved team member; cutting him in favor of someone 'better' will only be okay if the person is noticeably better. Cutting Bjeli would send an unintentional message to future ring-chasing vets; do they really want to come to the Ws for the min if the team is willing to cut them loose if someone better comes along? And Andre... the guy is widely revered and appreciated. Don't know if they could cut him without seriously damaging the chemistry on the team.

So it's about more than talent or filling a particular need. They'd be running a risk by cutting someone.

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Yea, I wonder how they balance loyalty and desire to win.

For Andre, I only see cutting as an option if he realizes that he cannot play any more. Switching him to a coach and having him still be there every minute could work. Imagine the scene in the locker room: Andre sitting down and saying ‘Guys you know I am an insane competitor but I literally cannot play anymore. I’m holding you back. The best thing for us is for me to step aside for someone who can impact the game more. This wasn’t management’s idea, it was mine. And I’ll still be here every second on the bench teaching when you screw up, cheering when you crush, and always looking awesome in my stylin’ sweaters and suits.’ Tears and joy. They’d play harder to win for Andre.

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I agree, it'd kind of have to be like in Ted Lasso, if Andre voluntarily does it for the good of the team (just hopefully without an actual serious injury precipitating things...). If he really is too old to play that'd really show leadership and selflessness.

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The obvious answer is JTA, no?

The Warriors are decimated on the front court right now, and JTA is still having trouble getting playing time.

That said, if Bjelica's 3pt keeps sliding, I don't see how they can keep him.

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If we cut Bjelica and JTA to sign RoLo and the Dragon, at least neither of them would feel singled out.

We could also potentially re-sign JTA to the two-way slot, assuming he cleared waivers.

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Something I noticed of late with Curry is he's been pump faking more often before shooting and it leads to more misses. Is this him hesitating more or has he always done this? I feel if he just catch and lets it fly without the fake he would be more in rhythm

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Feb 13, 2022·edited Feb 13, 2022

Without some data to compare, I think much of this is just confirmation bias. When I try to pay attention I see shots where he does this and go in and shots where he doesn’t and misses. Example: during game threads, if he takes time and measures to take the shot, and misses, it’s that he was “too open” but when he makes it, nothing. You see this with a lot of other things like hook passes, which he makes tons of to great effect, but when one goes awry it’s “oh god the hook pass that never works”. It’s normal human perception to do this. I can’t claim to know there’s not significant correlation, but without an unbiased assessment, it’s hard for me to give it much veracity.

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I think you're probably right, but for the record:

- I don't mind him taking a moment to measure before he takes the shot, but the pump fake (unless he's trying to get a defender to fly by) does look like hesitation to me.

- I hate the hook pass. Even when it's working, it scares the hell out of me. Probably PTSD from the times it didn't work.

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Sidebar: watch in an “all threes” season compilation on YouTube can be illuminating to an extent, although of course those are only showing makes….

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I feel like he also has had more shots blocked this year compared to others. I’ve tried to find stats to back that up but have not been able to. I suspect they are both related to him just not having quite as much space, and maybe not being quite as quick as he used to be.

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Without Otto Porter jr we have lost at Chase Center against Indiana and New York. Obviously, we were missing Draymond and Wise too

With Otto, at Chase Center we have won

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Feb 13, 2022·edited Feb 13, 2022Liked by punk basketball

Didn't get to watch game live (Mt Tam-Stinson Beach hike - Bueno!!).

What a game. I would have been a nervous wreck watching it live Things that stood out:

- Jonathan Fvcking Kuminga!! He is getting better every game Athleticism of course. But how fast he is learning and integrating within the team, that as a sign of super high BBIQ . Gonna be a difference maker in all rounds in playoffs.

- Captain oh my captain. I had already looked at the box score before watching the game But even then when Klay hit those 3s in 4th, I was a yelling like hell!!! Kaptain Klay - we are not worthy.

- Otto's three rebounds and a deflection in last 4 minutes were huge.

-----------

Also if Lakers continue to stay healthy, I don't want to face them in 1st round, even with Dray back fully healthy.

Also FU LeBron for getting that call at the end.

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If I was Kerr, I think I give OPJ the game ball. I know Klay gets all the media for going berserk in the 4th, but we don’t win that game without OPJs work on the glass and the steal in the last 4 minutes.

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Feb 13, 2022·edited Feb 13, 2022

> Otto Porter [...] had some critical plays late.

* 4Q 3:21 Stole LeBron's pass and got Klay a transition 3P shot, which he missed.... but

* 4Q 3:08 ... same possession, Otto gets the offensive rebound and is fouled. Subsequent GSW ball, sideline OOB play gets Klay a 3PM

* 4Q 1:39 Poole misses a 3P badly off the backboard, rebounded by Otto who immediately kicks it out to Klay for a 3PM

* 4Q 2.9 seconds left... LeBron misses the FT intentionally, Otto goes across the lane and stretches over the Wiggs/Westbrook wrestling match to grab the board... he realizes he can't secure it so he dumps it off towards the sideline gently, knowing that it'll run out the clock even if it goes out of bounds... no stat recorded but that was probably his craziest play

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All season long I've noticed Otto making winning plays in crucial moments. Those contested rebounds he gets count the same in the box score as the ones that bounce straight to someone with no opponents around, but they mean so much more. Scoring, too: he doesn't take that many midrangers but he has a knack for getting them when we really need a score.

Basically I think he's an even better player than the stats make him out to be (maybe plus-minus is close) and we're super fortunate to have him on the minimum even if he's not always available due to injury precautions.

Always interesting to see the weight that availability has in a player's overall "worth" (to the team and to his salary). It's a complex relationship to be sure.

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Phase II isn't 'Integrate Klay back into the line up', Phase II is 'Integrate the line up back around Klay!'

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Still amazed by 00JK's athleticism. He doesn't so much hang in the air as seemingly teleport right to the hoop for those dunks. No wasting airtime on a parabolic trajectory, just go straight at the rim.

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Feb 13, 2022·edited Feb 13, 2022

Got to be one of if not the quickest leapers in the game.

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OMG, If Kuminga works hard next summer and develops a 50% mid-range fadeaway jumpshot, plus a 38% 3p shot, and an 80% FT, he'll be ready to RAZE THE NBA.

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A 50% fadeaway jumpshot is Dirk Nowitzki/Kevin Durant territory lol.

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A 50% fadeaway jumpshot in one year sounds pretty optimistic, even considering JK's development this year haha.

JK should obviously be working on it outside games, but I think we're still a few years from really needing Kuminga to have that mid-range game. JK still more a finisher than a playmaker right now. The mid-range game is more for when JK becomes one of the lead offensive hubs. so probably still at least a couple years away.

For next year, I'd say 35% 3pt and 70% FT are good goals, and instead of trying to show off a mid-range game, I'd rather JK develop the vision/passing on kick outs to shooters or interior passes to bigs when defenses help on his drives.

With JK's rim attacking ability and Curry and Klay running around off-ball, JK should be able to nab like 3-4 assists per36.

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He is already above 35% 3pt and 70% FT. Just remove the first 1/3 of the season as he started to figure stuff out (and stopped bombing from outside instead of cutting)

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Kuminga was giving Lebron some staredowns after defensive sequences on him. There was one where Lebron pumped up a bunch and then passed it out (Kuminga didn't bite) and Kuminga just walked next to Lebron staring him down. I'm loving the competitive fire.

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He probably watched a lot of Lebron at the internet cafe.

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ABC loved that game.

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Feb 13, 2022Liked by Eric Apricot, punk basketball

Yo . . . couldn't have picked a better game to attend. Best part was, JTA recognized me and said whattup!! (We went to the same high school and he was on Varsity when I was on JV).

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If things had worked out differently, you could be playing for the Warriors and JTA could be posting here. We’d miss you of course, but you’d be making $1.9 million and we’d be hanging out here with freakin’ JTA!

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Feb 13, 2022Liked by punk basketball

That felt like a playoff gameplan from the Lakers, they were dedicated to taking advantage of their size advantage (similar to the Knicks) and quite frankly they succeeded. They should have won that game just like OKC should have won Game 6 of the 2016 WCF, unfortunately for both of those teams Klay is a cheat code when he gets hot.

Unbelievable performance from Kuminga. 9 rebounds in 25 minutes, with his strength, leaping ability, and general athleticism there's no reason he can't be doing that every time he plays. If he can keep that up he can be a playoff contributor this season, he played the idealized Wiseman role to perfection in this game. I certainly underestimated his athleticism in the draft, his and 1 dunk was probably the most explosive play I've ever seen from a Warrior?

I wouldn't pencil Poole in for anything other than the backup 1 in the playoffs. His defense hasn't improved and he seemingly can't hit an off the dribble three to save his life. If he is hitting those threes then you can play him but it should be on a game by game basis and he should have a quick hook. Warriors are linked to Dragic in the rumor mill for a reason imo, they have a use for a proven playoff level shot creator.

Klay after the game talking about "our future" when is what the NBA needs more of. There has to be more of a feeling that the players care about their franchises like the fans do, even if it's actually BS. The Harden/Ben Simmons stuff is horrible for the game.

Hate to say it but Westbrook played well in that game, I hope it was a fluke and not a sign of him accepting a new role that helps the team lol, fuck the Lakers.

Lakers should be playing Bazemore instead of Ariza but either way, enjoy the L traitor.

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I agree with the assessment of Poole. He’s a skilled guy but also has a lot of flaws/areas to develop. With a fully healthy team Andre would be the backup 1 and Poole the backup 2 or even further down the roster. With healthy Dray, Andre, OPJ and a further improved Kuminga getting steady minutes, Poole, Lee, and GP2 in roster spots 9-11 will be getting very limited spot minutes. Of course there will be injuries and Poole will be the first to move up.

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I understand why but it's too bad there aren't more minutes for Moody, at least in the rest of the regular season. He could end up being a better bet than Poole.

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It does seem like a problem to me going forward for Poole. If he's not going to take a leap as a defender, then can you really play him next to Curry in the playoffs? Perhaps if he really starts mastering the three pointer and becomes a true three level scorer, but it feels kinda Lillard/McCollum-y to me where both guys are better off being the lead guard (and that it works in the regular season but perhaps not as much in the playoffs). But then it's also hard to imagine Poole being content with coming off the bench for the next 4-5 seasons behind Curry.

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Westbrook did a pretty good job of not getting in the way and picked his spots very nicely. Fortunately I don't think his shooting is going to magically improve at this point and unless he starts hitting his shots consistently he's still a liability for them in the long run

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What Westbrook did right is not take many jumpers and instead get to the rim, plus some pretty good passing. That's the key for him. He looked better than I've seen him in some time.

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I think this system is a sub-optimal fit for Poole offensively. Dude's a guy that needs PNR touches to get going downhill. All this side-to-side stuff to create 34-35% 3s for him is just not maximizing him.

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Feb 13, 2022·edited Feb 13, 2022

That was seemingly the initial plan with Wiseman. Regardless of the fit he needs to eventually be able to hit these off the dribble threes to take his game to another level. 29.2% on them last season, 29.7% so far this season. Technically an improvement lol, but if he doesn't start hitting these shots then playoff opponents are presumably going to concede the stepback and go under screens and it's going to make it much tougher for him to shoulder the scoring load with Curry off the floor and they don't really have any other options (unless they are able to get Dragic).

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivds7aJvs2c

2:31 Lebron left Wiggins to come and help on Steph's drive but couldn't get up fast enough or didn't bother to contest the shot. Notice how Bradley had to stick to Klay and follow him all the way out to half court pretty much and it opened up that side completely. Steph had the option to finish it like he did or kick it to Wiggs for a wide open corner 3. I think with anyone else there not named Klay freakin Thompson Bradley would have cheated to help and clog up that lane which would have led to a way lower percentage shot

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Thanks for sharing the clip. A couple things I noticed when watching it: 1) On LAL's last possession before the foul on LeBron (that ended with a LeBron miss from in close and a rebound battle that the Dubs ultimately won), LeBron blew by Wiggins with a back cut and was wide open for a dunk but Westbrook didn't feed him although he had a good angle to get LeBron the ball. 2) With 5 seconds left, GP2 is guarding Monk above the arc and could have easily grabbed him without the threat of Monk gathering and launching a 3. After the IND debacle, you'd think the Dubs would be better at fouling in that situation. And while it did look like Steph fouled LeBron before a shot attempt, it did look like LeBron was in the process of gathering just after Steph fouled him, and NBA refs tend to be pretty likely to call shooting fouls in that situation.

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If it was up to me I’m grabbing the guy immediately once the ball is inbounded if i’m playing the foul game. Anything past that is inviting trouble like what we saw even if it was the wrong call from the refs IMO

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Feb 13, 2022·edited Feb 13, 2022

That last Curry shot is a decent shot in terms of Expected Value but it is a terrible shot considering game situation. When you're up 2/3 with 1 possession to go for both team, the important thing is scoring and putting the lead beyond 3 points. In that situation, a 45% mid-range look is significantly better than a 33-35% 3 pointer.

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100%. Even if he’s just going to Chuck one up, He shot it with too much time left on the clock

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he's obviously struggling from 3 so I appreciate those added drives and midrange jumpers. it can't exactly be easy for someone like Steph to adjust their game, since on some level it's a tacit acknowledgement that, yes, the thing that made you so feared and devastating and thrilling is (at least temporarily) no longer the weapon it once was. so I applaud that. but that's what makes the last shot a bit disappointing. maybe he's earned the right to take that (somewhat) ill-advised shot in a game against the Lakers in February, but I hope he'll choose to make the "right" play when the games are a bit more important.

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Klay loves the big moment man. There's very few guys in the league with the "Mamba Mentality" and Klay is no doubt one of them. I don't know why but I trust him to hit that dagger more than Steph. They're both stone cold killers but Klay just has absolutely no fear in his DNA

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Lol just last game people were all up in arms that Klay took the last shot instead of Steph. A wide open free throw shot at that lol.

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I wasn’t mad about that. Klay shook off his man and had a clean look. Totally worthy shot to take. Sucked hard that he missed it but that’s the game. Nobody hits them all.

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Yeah, it was a decent look and a reasonable one to go for. Personally I didn't like it because I really wanted the team to go for a 3. 2 points was only enough for the tie, and the team looked too tired to perform in overtime.

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Feb 13, 2022·edited Feb 13, 2022

He bricked that one and I'm sure he'll brick more. We'll be frustrated in the moment but at the end of the day Game 6 Klay is real. I'm just glad we have someone that isn't afraid to take that shot regardless of the outcome

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On second thought if we're running a play for someone to come off that screen for the GW I'd rather have Klay shoot it but in a one on one dancing situation I'd go with Steph

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Feb 13, 2022Liked by punk basketball

I keep watching Klay 4th quarter highlights: https://twitter.com/dbs408/status/1492725091519500288?s=20&t=dT4dPWGeCS-qycG8xxYinw

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His shot release on the right wing after the pass from Wiggs is so fast. It’s really incredible how he can catch and go up in one motion like that.

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