You ever find that there are two DNHQ posts going on at the same time, for example this postgame one as well as Eric's morning Explain One Play, and you're not sure where the current discussion is really going on, so you go hang out in the wrong one and all of a sudden you find out that you're the only one there? That's how Dallas felt when they were on the wrong end of the court.
Austin Reaves in the last 4 games: 53 free throw attempts
Davion Mitchell on the season (72 games): 28 free throw attempts
(Not sure if this more an indictment of the stupid refs, Adam Silver’s obvious attempt to get the stupid Lakers in the playoffs, the league’s perennial dissing of the Kings, or Mitchell’s bizarre passiveness when it comes to scoring and rebounding … I guess all of the above?)
High probability of winning Wolves and OKC and tie breakers against them- at home, GP2 back (and hopefully) Dray continuing to play dominant D when it matters
Those two wins will seal 6th seed or better. Even if we don't win these games, we can still get tie -breakers:
- 2:2 head to head record vs either team. So it's a wash.
- OKC and MIN will not be divisional leaders (DEN clinched it) and neither would Dubs (SAC will have it). So it's a wash
- Division W-L % for teams in same division - not applicable since Dubs are in different division
- Conference W-L%: Currently Dubs and MIN 25-20 and OKC 22-23. OKC is not gonna catch up and we have easier schedule than both teams
- Last three rules get bit murky (record against playoff teams - same conf, .... - different conf and net points (currently OKC > GS > MIN)
So, part of Dallas' complaint about the inbound play seems to be "c'mon, when you notice us confused, you gotta stop and tell us!"
My guess is that the refs think they told them sufficiently. It's quite common practice for players to want the ball inbounded quickly for an advantage, Doncic, Smart, and Jokic have done it to the Warriors in the playoffs. Get ready to play, honestly... I'm 100% sure the league and refs have clear signals to the teams when the time out ends and it's time to get on the floor, and I'm also 100% sure they were used.
JK is playing amazing and needs to play 20 min in Playoffs. Who loses minutes when GP2 ( let's assume) and Wiggs and they are up to their self by 2nd round? I guess JMG and Lamb.. Play Dray less to save him for latter rounds?
Luka likes to get to his right hand for drives and passes. And the majority of screens set for him are for this to happen. Going left, it's nearly always a step-back shot. Obviously, he's great and capable of going either way, but the Warriors kept giving drives to the right and it hurt bad. Forcing him left was way better for a successful outcome.
As much as Luka's constant bitching at the refs is annoying, A) he's an incredible player and fun to watch and B) there seems to be a mutual respect between him and the Warriors, which makes this matchup much more enjoyable than against Memphis or Phoenix, for example.
I agree on all counts. He's just a gem of a ballplayer. He can bitch about calls, it doesn't bother me. Draymond never scores without calling for an and 1, as does half the league. Luka is a pleasure to watch, especially in a losing cause.
The difference between Draymond and Luka (and there isn't that much of a difference), is that Draymond doesn't simulate (to use the soccer term) a foul on incidental contact.
It's pretty cheap of Luka to do so. I dislike Luka for that. Wish the league would add a 'simulation' foul, and call it liberally. We'd get dinged, too (Steph and Klay and Poole all do that sometime).
But, it would make it a less annoying game. The post-game fine thing seems to have just gone away.
You have to commit to your simulation, including complaining about the call, so the ref has a little doubt in their mind that maybe you're right and were actually aggrieved... so that doubt is there next time they're thinking about blowing the whistle.
Yeah I love parts of his play (amazing skill shots, passing, etc.) but too often it looks like he's more interesting in drawing contact, flapping his head back and THEN trying to make the shot rather than just trying to get a bucket. It's not quite at Harden levels but it's closer than I'd like.
JK back up to .589 TS% on the season. Which is pretty good until you realize it's 8th best (!) on the team. Offense is crazy this year. And some low usage players have been efficient for the Dubs (JMG, Loon, Dray, Wise, Lamb, Ty).
I couldn't possibly predict what will happen after this season but have a very strong feeling that there will be some changes happening. Every succeeding year after this one, will bring on major decision making moments. When your players get old, you want to put the best possible and affordable talent together with them or you probably don't survive. Draymond could choose to leave. Wiggins could choose not to play. FO could choose to trade Klay. Would you double down on all these players we have? The chances they stay champs becomes thinner and thinner. There will be a lot of pain for the fans, that's for sure. I we saw wailing over Wiseman, it will look like nothing compared to the absence of some of our beloveds. Remember, it's a business, too.
> Would you double down on all these players we have?
Yes, I would double down on a core that has won 4 championships in 8 years and would win the West again this season if Wiggins was healthy. But this time the organization should commit to the present instead of worrying about the post-Curry era so they can stand a chance at beating a team like the Bucks in the Finals.
The problem is that doubling down on Draymond probably means signing him for three more years. There has been slippage the second half of this season (he was great the first half, so probably just injury/wear and tear).
That's an expensive bet.
I think a fun offseason thread will be, "what is the opportunity cost of signing Draymond for a four year extension (three plus the player option)?" Does that mean letting go of PBJ at the end of his rookie deal? Klay?
Losing PBJ for Dray right now would be a no-brainer, but it probably won't be by the end of a long extension for Dray.
Not an expensive bet at all, imo. Resigning him for 3 years this offseason at lower starting salary next year saves a BUNCH of tax $$ next year. And with the current CBA expiring after the 23/24 season, the 24/25 season is expected to have a much higher salary cap due to the new TV deal... so that ~$25M he'll get in 24/25 and $27M in 25/26 contract is going to look much more palatable when the new contracts in those years are 30% higher. The kind of player that gets $20M/year now is going to get $26M/year in 24/25...
I just don't really understand why everyone thinks Draymond is going to take a haircut. He's already said that he wishes he hadn't given a team discount in his last contract.
It's his last chance at a multi-year contract.
I guess it's possible that the market for him isn't worth more than $25 mil. But, I'm guessing that's a little low. And, I don't know if the Dubs can go to a 4 year $30 mil./yr. level.
Draymond has been the number 2 or 3 best player on 6 finals teams and won 4 rings. PBJ has 210 minutes in the NBA and has been a below average player. Yes, I would gladly sacrifice PBJ to keep Dray 3 more years. I would probably sacrifice Klay too, but that's harder. I want 30/11/23 to play together on GSW until they retire, and am willing to sacrifice pretty much any player on the roster to do so.
It's really hard to say now exactly where we'll be because the cap can go up, and we don't know who we will sign before then. Draymond will be UFA then if he opts in this summer, so are we going to extend/re-sign him? Klay will be UFA in summer 2024 — unless extended. If those guys are gone, and we don't sign anyone expensive, we COULD have maybe $17M and if we let a bunch of FAs go maybe as much as $26M. But that's with a bloodbath.
But Brown makes $28.5M for '23-'24, and he's going to want to a max or as close as he can get in the summer of '24. We are not projected to have that much space.
If he's willing to take vet min, sure. If he wants the max, almost certainly not. But, lots of things can change rapidly in the NBA, and that's way too far down the road to consider. Depending on how this season ends, the Dubs could look very, very different in 4 months.
https://twitter.com/memgrizz/status/1638736441650958337
They did it again. The undisputed BACK TO BACK champs! A true dynasty in the Southwest.
It's weird that anyone keeps track of this stuff. These subdivisions are really only relevant for scheduling.
You have to keep track of the smaller wins when your franchise doesn't have a real trophy LOL
Dynasty. Fax.
You ever find that there are two DNHQ posts going on at the same time, for example this postgame one as well as Eric's morning Explain One Play, and you're not sure where the current discussion is really going on, so you go hang out in the wrong one and all of a sudden you find out that you're the only one there? That's how Dallas felt when they were on the wrong end of the court.
My favorite thing about last night's game was that it confirmed something I've long suspected:
If you post links to yodel reggae, you win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swNxWp5kzDw
Austin Reaves in the last 4 games: 53 free throw attempts
Davion Mitchell on the season (72 games): 28 free throw attempts
(Not sure if this more an indictment of the stupid refs, Adam Silver’s obvious attempt to get the stupid Lakers in the playoffs, the league’s perennial dissing of the Kings, or Mitchell’s bizarre passiveness when it comes to scoring and rebounding … I guess all of the above?)
Thinking basketball with the Reaves love: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZL8yqBHm9Dg
Despite my distaste for his flopperrific play, TB makes a good case for him as a smart player.
Generally I don't believe in conspiracy theories, but these numbers are really odd.
The way the refs buy all of Reaves’s flops, I’m convinced he has incriminating photos.
Nah, it's just the Lakers.
High probability of winning Wolves and OKC and tie breakers against them- at home, GP2 back (and hopefully) Dray continuing to play dominant D when it matters
Those two wins will seal 6th seed or better. Even if we don't win these games, we can still get tie -breakers:
- 2:2 head to head record vs either team. So it's a wash.
- OKC and MIN will not be divisional leaders (DEN clinched it) and neither would Dubs (SAC will have it). So it's a wash
- Division W-L % for teams in same division - not applicable since Dubs are in different division
- Conference W-L%: Currently Dubs and MIN 25-20 and OKC 22-23. OKC is not gonna catch up and we have easier schedule than both teams
- Last three rules get bit murky (record against playoff teams - same conf, .... - different conf and net points (currently OKC > GS > MIN)
Wow gotta go way down the tiebreaker list, great post.
JK was star of the game. But let's call out some other good things:
- Loon clutch FTs - both!!!
- Dray's dominant D (4 blocks, 4 steals)
- Poole with zero TOV and only one ill-dvised 3
- Steph's 13 assists
- Moody solid 6 min (+4)
- 6 players in double digits
- Klay taking only one quick transition 3 (he has earned it?) and timely mid rangers.. Only 9 pts but didn't look like he forced his plays
Draymond’s 7 stocks!
JK FTs were clutcher, just saying.
So, part of Dallas' complaint about the inbound play seems to be "c'mon, when you notice us confused, you gotta stop and tell us!"
My guess is that the refs think they told them sufficiently. It's quite common practice for players to want the ball inbounded quickly for an advantage, Doncic, Smart, and Jokic have done it to the Warriors in the playoffs. Get ready to play, honestly... I'm 100% sure the league and refs have clear signals to the teams when the time out ends and it's time to get on the floor, and I'm also 100% sure they were used.
If they thought they were inbounding, why not look for the ref WITH THE BALL near where it went out of bounds?
Or just LOOK FOR THE BALL?
JK is playing amazing and needs to play 20 min in Playoffs. Who loses minutes when GP2 ( let's assume) and Wiggs and they are up to their self by 2nd round? I guess JMG and Lamb.. Play Dray less to save him for latter rounds?
I don’t know whose minutes he takes, but I think Kuminga should be getting 36 minutes a game.
If everyone is healthy, Kuminga would be cutting into Looney's minutes tbh.
But it's getting harder and harder to believe everyone (Wiggins) will be healthy.
Agree. I’m thinking it will be situational and across the board.
Against a pair of All Star wings, eg Clippers, both Wiggins and JK
If Kyrie is on the floor, so is GP2…
DDV is a better scorer than GP2, but will lose most the minutes to him.
Poole will certainly lose a few, and even Steph, Dray, and Klay might afford a well timed blow .
Lamb and Moody will only see garbage time if we have everybody.
Probably most of his minutes will come from Lamb & Donte
Luka likes to get to his right hand for drives and passes. And the majority of screens set for him are for this to happen. Going left, it's nearly always a step-back shot. Obviously, he's great and capable of going either way, but the Warriors kept giving drives to the right and it hurt bad. Forcing him left was way better for a successful outcome.
Trapping him didn’t seem so effective, either.
The Golden State Warriors have the fewest free-throw attempts - opponent free-throw attempts by a team this season, with -392.
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=smallest+fta-opponent+fta+this+season
30. Warriors: -392
29. Suns: -316
28. Nets: -222
27. Spurs: -204
26. Timberwolves: -177
25. Thunder: -171
24. Pacers: -164
23. Hawks: -97
22. Nuggets: -47
21. Hornets: -36
damn from Warriors to Lakers that's around 10.5 FT/game disparity... or about 7-8 pts/game.
This does fit the Curry gets no calls narrative.
It also fits the Warrior proclivity to foul, a lot.
The Los Angeles Lakers have the most free-throw attempts - opponent free-throw attempts by a team this season, with 387.
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=largest+fta-opponent+fta+this+season
1. Lakers- 387
2. Heat- 184
3. Kings- 179
4. Magic- 152
5. Knicks- 141
6. Bucks- 135
7. Clippers- 110
8. 76ers- 99
9. Rockets- 82
10. Blazers- 64
This does not fit the Lebron gets no calls narrative...
By a wiiiiiiiddddeee margin.
As much as Luka's constant bitching at the refs is annoying, A) he's an incredible player and fun to watch and B) there seems to be a mutual respect between him and the Warriors, which makes this matchup much more enjoyable than against Memphis or Phoenix, for example.
That wrap-around pass he made in traffic to Josh Green last night was breathtaking
I agree on all counts. He's just a gem of a ballplayer. He can bitch about calls, it doesn't bother me. Draymond never scores without calling for an and 1, as does half the league. Luka is a pleasure to watch, especially in a losing cause.
The difference between Draymond and Luka (and there isn't that much of a difference), is that Draymond doesn't simulate (to use the soccer term) a foul on incidental contact.
It's pretty cheap of Luka to do so. I dislike Luka for that. Wish the league would add a 'simulation' foul, and call it liberally. We'd get dinged, too (Steph and Klay and Poole all do that sometime).
But, it would make it a less annoying game. The post-game fine thing seems to have just gone away.
You have to commit to your simulation, including complaining about the call, so the ref has a little doubt in their mind that maybe you're right and were actually aggrieved... so that doubt is there next time they're thinking about blowing the whistle.
Yeah I love parts of his play (amazing skill shots, passing, etc.) but too often it looks like he's more interesting in drawing contact, flapping his head back and THEN trying to make the shot rather than just trying to get a bucket. It's not quite at Harden levels but it's closer than I'd like.
Would you rather be the 6th seed facing the Kings at 3? Or the 4th seed with HCA facing the Suns at 5?
29-7.
Spent more minutes that I like to admit trying to figure out what HCA was. As in, "just think of our defense if we had HCA back from his toe injury!"
HCA is our best player this year lol, 29-7 when he suits up!
4th seed and HCA facing the Thunder.
I wonder what the best still technically possible scenario is, that's probly close haha
I don't think that's necessarily better... but I guess you assume the Suns have KD back, and that's scary.
Most free throw attempts over the last 4 games:
53 — Austin Reaves
51 — Jayson Tatum
50 — Damian Lillard
47 — Jimmy Butler
Reaves is averaging 13.3 attempts per game in that stretch.
https://mobile.twitter.com/statmuse/status/1638764020013383680
JK back up to .589 TS% on the season. Which is pretty good until you realize it's 8th best (!) on the team. Offense is crazy this year. And some low usage players have been efficient for the Dubs (JMG, Loon, Dray, Wise, Lamb, Ty).
If you take out his terrible October & November, he's absolutely killing it...
Are we talking about Klay?
Do the Dubs have enough salary cap space to sign Jaylon Brown as a UFA in 2024?
Looking at the GSW salaries: They would need to trade poole for him next year and then resign him.
I couldn't possibly predict what will happen after this season but have a very strong feeling that there will be some changes happening. Every succeeding year after this one, will bring on major decision making moments. When your players get old, you want to put the best possible and affordable talent together with them or you probably don't survive. Draymond could choose to leave. Wiggins could choose not to play. FO could choose to trade Klay. Would you double down on all these players we have? The chances they stay champs becomes thinner and thinner. There will be a lot of pain for the fans, that's for sure. I we saw wailing over Wiseman, it will look like nothing compared to the absence of some of our beloveds. Remember, it's a business, too.
> Would you double down on all these players we have?
Yes, I would double down on a core that has won 4 championships in 8 years and would win the West again this season if Wiggins was healthy. But this time the organization should commit to the present instead of worrying about the post-Curry era so they can stand a chance at beating a team like the Bucks in the Finals.
The problem is that doubling down on Draymond probably means signing him for three more years. There has been slippage the second half of this season (he was great the first half, so probably just injury/wear and tear).
That's an expensive bet.
I think a fun offseason thread will be, "what is the opportunity cost of signing Draymond for a four year extension (three plus the player option)?" Does that mean letting go of PBJ at the end of his rookie deal? Klay?
Losing PBJ for Dray right now would be a no-brainer, but it probably won't be by the end of a long extension for Dray.
Not an expensive bet at all, imo. Resigning him for 3 years this offseason at lower starting salary next year saves a BUNCH of tax $$ next year. And with the current CBA expiring after the 23/24 season, the 24/25 season is expected to have a much higher salary cap due to the new TV deal... so that ~$25M he'll get in 24/25 and $27M in 25/26 contract is going to look much more palatable when the new contracts in those years are 30% higher. The kind of player that gets $20M/year now is going to get $26M/year in 24/25...
I just don't really understand why everyone thinks Draymond is going to take a haircut. He's already said that he wishes he hadn't given a team discount in his last contract.
It's his last chance at a multi-year contract.
I guess it's possible that the market for him isn't worth more than $25 mil. But, I'm guessing that's a little low. And, I don't know if the Dubs can go to a 4 year $30 mil./yr. level.
I'm okay with signing Draymond for three more years. Don't really see it as a tough question tbh.
It's really not... the only questions are: how much? Is it 3 or 4 years?
He's gone on record saying he only wants to play for 15 years, so I think he's looking for a 4 year deal.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/warriors-draymond-green-reveals-nba-retirement-timeline-preference
Draymond has been the number 2 or 3 best player on 6 finals teams and won 4 rings. PBJ has 210 minutes in the NBA and has been a below average player. Yes, I would gladly sacrifice PBJ to keep Dray 3 more years. I would probably sacrifice Klay too, but that's harder. I want 30/11/23 to play together on GSW until they retire, and am willing to sacrifice pretty much any player on the roster to do so.
Also, they definitely do not need to factor in contract negotiations for PBJ 3 years from now into any Draymond decision.
It's really hard to say now exactly where we'll be because the cap can go up, and we don't know who we will sign before then. Draymond will be UFA then if he opts in this summer, so are we going to extend/re-sign him? Klay will be UFA in summer 2024 — unless extended. If those guys are gone, and we don't sign anyone expensive, we COULD have maybe $17M and if we let a bunch of FAs go maybe as much as $26M. But that's with a bloodbath.
But Brown makes $28.5M for '23-'24, and he's going to want to a max or as close as he can get in the summer of '24. We are not projected to have that much space.
If he's willing to take vet min, sure. If he wants the max, almost certainly not. But, lots of things can change rapidly in the NBA, and that's way too far down the road to consider. Depending on how this season ends, the Dubs could look very, very different in 4 months.
I see the problem now...some big changes ahead...